BurmaNet News, June 24, 2009

[Editor]

June 24, 2009, Issue #3741


INSIDE BURMA
DVB: Burma’s military regime: Digging the tunnels
AFP: Suu Kyi lawyers urge court to allow witnesses
AFP: Myanmar says no information on tracked NKorean ship
Mizzima News: Palpable tension between junta and ethnic armed groups
Irrawaddy: Burmese army still recruiting under-age soldiers
Kachin News Group: Junta deploys fresh troops secretly in Kachin State

BUSINESS / TRADE
Wall Street Journal: UK Brown: UK open to new sanctions against Myanmar
Irrawaddy: Burmese gems for sale

REGIONAL
AP: Groups fear Malaysia may deport Myanmar protesters

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Than Shwe maneuvers to retain power – Aung Lynn Htut
DVB: Burma acts the bully on Thailand – Larry Jagan






____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

June 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma’s military regime: Digging the tunnels

New images have emerged that show North Korean and other foreign advisers
in Burma consulting with officials on what now appears to be an extensive
network of some 800 underground tunnels across much of the country.

While rife government corruption and uneven development in Burma yesterday
awarded Burma a spot at the bottom of Foreign Policy magazine’s Failed
States Index, billions of US dollars are now known to have been channeled
by the Burmese government into building the tunnels.

DVB has been tracking the development of the tunnels and underground
installations in Burma for a number of years. This is the first in a
series of DVB stories revealing the secretive tunnel project.

Evidence has been obtained that shows between 600 and 800 tunnels in
various stages of construction, with work on some sections dating as far
back as 1996.

Photographs of a number of tunnel sites clearly show North Korean advisers
present, while some construction equipment being used on the sites
displays the Korean script.

In one photograph of a work site at Pyinmanar Taung Nyo, dated 29 May
2006, North Korean advisers are seen training Burmese soldiers and
technicians in tunnel construction.

Several government budget files also show evidence of foreign aid and
loans being used to fund construction work.

A number of senior Burmese officials have been dismissed in recent days
following the first publication of DVB’s tunnel photographs in the Yale
Global Online on 8 June.

The military government has launched an investigation into how details of
such a sensitive project were leaked, with associates of former
intelligence chief Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt being questioned by
police.

Further intelligence documents obtained by DVB show that the tunnel system
is being disguised by the government as a fibre optic cable installation
project.

Leaked engineering designs show, however, that some sections of the
tunnels are wide enough to allow trucks to enter and leave. There is also
storage space for food and weaponry, and separate rooms that would hold
around 600 personnel for several months.

The documents also reveal plans to hold large rockets and satellite
communication command centers inside the tunnels.

Although the financially weak Burmese government is thought to allocate
some 40 per cent of its budget for military purposes, the tunnel project
over the course of 13 years has likely run into the billions.

Some observers have speculated that the abrupt hike in fuel prices that
sparked the September 2007 protests may have been a prelude to securing
extra capital for the project.

Likewise, Burma struck a deal with China in April this year to siphon its
vast offshore natural gas reserves to China’s energy hungry population, a
venture that will have given the tunnel project an important boost.

Speculation that Burma is trading in military hardware with North Korea
was reinforced on Monday with reports that a North Korean freighter ship
believed to be carrying arms was headed in the direction of Burma.

Despite only reestablishing diplomatic ties in 2007, following North
Korea’s bombing of a South Korean delegation in Rangoon in 1983, the two
countries share characteristics that make them obvious allies.

According to journalist and expert on North Korea-Burma relations, Bertil
Lintner, both countries have “absolutely no interest” in supporting
respective UN arms embargoes.

Indeed, North Korea is one of the few countries willing to continue
military trade with the pariah state, with “even China
reluctant to sell
certain types of equipment to Burma”, according to Lintner.

Perhaps most worryingly for countries outside of Burma’s friendship group,
it has renewed an alliance with a country that is rapidly becoming the
icon of a new generation of ‘rogue states’ threatening nuclear warfare.

With this in mind, speculation will likely start to circulate as to
whether the tunnel network could be linked to rumours that Burma is mining
uranium ore, a key ingredient for nuclear fission. No evidence has yet
appeared to verify this, however.

In our next story we will reveal the purpose of these tunnels, foreign
involvement in the project and what is inside the tunnels.

____________________________________

June 24, Agence France Presse
Suu Kyi lawyers urge court to allow witnesses

Lawyers for democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi have urged Myanmar's top court
to allow two key aides to testify at her trial, despite efforts by the
ruling junta to bar them from the witness box.

In a case that has drawn international condemnation, the Nobel laureate
faces up to five years in jail on charges of breaching her house arrest
after an American man swam uninvited to her lakeside home in May.

A court at Yangon's Insein prison last month barred two senior members of
her National League for Democracy (NLD) from giving evidence, but the
Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal against the decision.

"We gave our arguments to the Supreme Court for about one hour today. They
could make a decision any time, we have to wait and check the court list
every day," NLD spokesman and defence lawyer Nyan Win said.

The two barred witnesses are Win Tin, a journalist who was Myanmar's
longest-serving political prisoner until his release in September, and
detained deputy NLD leader Tin Oo.

Nyan Win said the prosecution argued it was "impossible" for Tin Oo to
appear because he was being held under a security law, while Win Tin had
given interviews to foreign media "which they said would affect the
judgement."

"So I replied to them that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi appears at the court while
she is in detention, so why can Tin Oo not appear at the court?" Nyan Win
told reporters.

"Regarding Win Tin I said it was his right to speak freely and has nothing
to do with the court, but his speech might be disturbing for the
authorities."

Security was tight for the hearing, with around 20 police trucks
patrolling streets near the Supreme Court building in Yangon.

Aung San Suu Kyi's lawyers earlier this month successfully appealed
against a ban on a third witness, while a fourth has already testified.

The prosecution has so far called 14 witnesses, adding to opposition and
international claims that the proceedings are a show trial designed to
keep the democracy icon locked-up ahead of elections scheduled by the
regime for 2010.

US national John Yettaw and Aung San Suu Kyi's two live-in aides are also
on trial and face a similar sentence. All are being held at Insein jail,
Myanmar's most notorious detention centre.

Aung San Suu Kyi has spent 13 of the last 19 years in detention since
Myanmar's ruling junta refused to recognise the NLD's landslide victory in
the country's last democratic polls in 1990.

The UN envoy to Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, may visit the country later this
week ahead of a possible trip by Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in early
July, officials and diplomats say.

"We hope to meet Mr Gambari when he comes, as we did on his previous
visits," Nyan Win said. "We always welcome the United Nations envoy as it
means we can hope for something."

Aung San Suu Kyi on Monday thanked people around the world who sent her
birthday wishes and called for her immediate release as she turned 64 in
jail last week.

The charges against Aung San Suu Kyi come amid a wide-ranging crackdown on
the opposition that has been carried out since the ruling generals crushed
protests led by Buddhist monks in 2007.

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has been ruled by the military since 1962.

____________________________________

June 24, Agence France Presse
Myanmar says no information on tracked NKorean ship

Myanmar's state media said Wednesday it was expecting the arrival of a
rice-earing North Korean ship but had no news about a vessel being tracked
by a US Navy destroyer under new UN sanctions.

The comments came after US officials said a North Korean ship, the Kang
Nam 1, was the first to be monitored under a UN resolution designed to
punish Pyongyang over a nuclear test and could be headed to Myanmar.

Military-ruled Myanmar's government-controlled media said a separate cargo
ship from North Korea carrying thousands of tonnes of grain was due to
arrive from India at the end of the week.

"It is learnt that the MV Dumangang cargo ship from DPRK (North Korea)
will arrive in Myanmar about June 27 carrying 8,000 tonnes of rice from
Kolkata, India," state media said.

It said that foreign media had been "spreading reports these days that the
Kang Nam cargo ship which left Nampo port, North Korea on June 17 was
heading to Myanmar."

No information was available regarding "this Kang Nam cargo ship" it added.

A US defence official said on Monday that the Kang Nam 1 was being tracked
by a US Navy destroyer under the UN sanctions adopted following this
month's underground atomic test by North Korea and could be headed to
Myanmar.

The Aegis destroyer USS John S. McCain was continuing to shadow the cargo
ship.

South Korea's YTN television news channel, citing an unnamed intelligence
source, reported on Sunday the ship was suspected of carrying missiles or
related parts and was heading for Myanmar via Singapore.

The 2,000-tonne ship left the western North Korean port of Nampo on June
17, with Myanmar set as its final destination, YTN said.

Myanmar and hardline communist North Korea, both of which are severely
criticised internationally for human rights abuses, restored diplomatic
relations in 2007.

Myanmar severed ties with Pyongyang in 1983 following a failed
assassination attempt by North Korean agents on then-South Korean
president Chun Doo-Hwan during his visit to the Southeast Asian nation.

The bombing killed 17 of Chun's entourage including cabinet ministers
while four Myanmar officials also died.

Myanmar, ruled by the military since 1962, and North Korea have been
branded "outposts of tyranny" by the United States, which imposes
sanctions on both.

____________________________________

June 24, Mizzima News
Palpable tension between junta and ethnic armed groups – Solomon

The Burmese Army has significantly increased its military presence in
northern and eastern Burma, where ethnic ceasefire armed groups are based,
following their widespread rejection of the junta’s proposal to transform
to a border guard force.

An official of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) told Mizzima on Wednesday
that they have witnessed the Burmese Army relocating more troops along
with arms including mortars in bases near their controlled areas in
eastern Shan State.

“We have seen the Burmese Army moving in more troops, in what seems like a
preparation for a war,” the official said.

He told Mizzima that the junta is likely to mount more pressure on them
after they rejected the proposal to transform their army into a ‘Border
Guard’ force.

“Changing our army’s name is not a problem but if we accept their
proposal, we will lose our forces, so it’s not possible for us,” he said.

In late April, the junta proposed to ceasefire armed groups to change
their armies into a ‘Border Guard’, which will be supervised by the junta.
 According to the junta’s plan, each battalion of the border guard will
consist of 326 soldiers out of which 30 soldiers from the Burmese Army
will be included.

However, most of the ceasefire groups including the UWSA have reportedly
rejected the junta’s proposal, triggering renewed tension between the
Burmese Army and the rebels.

But the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), an ethnic Karen rebel group
 which split from the mainstream Karen resistance army – the Karen
National Union, have not rejected the junta’s proposal.

“We do not anticipate war, nobody wants to fight, we are still open to
talks with them [junta] but we need to defend ourselves, so now, we have
alerted all our troops to be ready,” the official, who spoke on condition
of anonymity, added.

UWSA controls two special regions in northern Shan State, bordering China
and eastern Shan state, bordering Thailand.

Meanwhile, sources said, the Burmese junta has also increased its military
presence in northern Burma’s Kachin State in areas controlled by the
Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/A).

Awng Wa, an activist working inside Kachin state said, troops have been
reinforced in the Burmese Army, based near the KIO’s main headquarter in
the Sino-Burma border town of Laiza.

“More soldiers have arrived in battalion 2 at Daw Hpum Myang [which is
close to Laiza],” said Awng Wa.

He said the junta has reinforced the army battalions with more troops
since they began proposing the transformation of the KIA into a border
guard force.

“It looks to me that a conflict might break out between the KIO and the
Burmese Army anytime soon,” he added.

An unconfirmed report received by Mizzima said, leaders of the KIO
including Vice-President (1) of the KIO Lt-Gen Gauri Zau Seng, during a
meeting with a Burmese junta official in Myitkyina of Kachin state last
week, rejected the proposal.

But when contacted by Mizzima, Gauri Zau Seng declined to clarify the
matter and referred to the KIO’s spokesperson Colonel Gun Maw. But Col Gun
Maw, however, could not be reached for comment.

Sources said, the KIO has been holding meetings within the organisation to
discuss the junta’s proposal and had formed a seven-member committee to
deal with the issue and to negotiate with the junta. Lt-Gen Gauri Zau Seng
is the leader of the team.

As part of its preparation, KIO in turn has stepped up recruiting new
cadres and has called back old comrades. They are also returning into the
forests, sources said.

Similarly, the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S), which has not signed a
ceasefire agreement with the junta, said the Burmese Army has also been
expanding its presence in eastern and northern Shan states.

Major Long Sai of the SSA-S told Mizzima, that it is the fallout of
rejecting the junta’s proposal by ethnic ceasefire groups and the military
junta is likely to launch stronger military operations.

“They [junta] are despatching more artillery battalions,” said Long Sai.
“They always regarded us as their enemy but we are only fighting for our
rights and freedom,” he added.

“I want to call on all ceasefire groups to continue trying what we want
and we all have the same goal,” said Long Sai.

Since the beginning of June, the Burmese Army along with their allies -
the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) – launched a military offensive
against the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the
KNU.

In the operation, which forced thousands of Karen villagers to flee to
Thailand, the joint forces of the Burmese Army and the DKBA overran the
bases of KNLA’s 7th Brigade.

But a Sino-Burma border based analyst Aung Kyaw Zaw told Mizzima that so
far there is no sign to indicate that the junta will conduct a fresh
military offensive against the ceasefire armed groups. Not until the junta
completes its planned elections in 2010, he said.

____________________________________

June 24, Irrawaddy
Burmese army still recruiting under-age soldiers – Lawi Weng

The Burmese army is still recruiting under-age soldiers in contravention
of a United Nations call to stop the practice, according to child labor
activists in Burma.

In the latest incident, a 16-year-old youth was taken late at night by an
army truck from Light Infantry Division 77, based in Pegu.

Aye Myint, a leading labor activist in Pegu Division, said the youth was
taken from a local restaurant where he worked. His parents were told by an
officer at the Pegu army base that the youth had been sent to a
recruitment center in Rangoon’s Mingalardon Township.

Aye Myint said the youth’s family has lodged a letter of complaint with
the International Labour Organization (ILO) office in Rangoon on June 17. 
The Irrawaddy tried
unsuccessfully to contact the office on Wednesday.

Kyin Toe, chairman of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in Twante
Township, said another family had complained to his office that their
under-age son had been recruited by the army.

Burma’s state-run media maintains that the government is screening
recruits and releasing any found to be under age.  It reported that 68
children were detected recently in various military training schools and
were released to their parents or guardians.

The ILO says it has been instrumental, together with the International
Committee of the Red Cross, in the release of 12 under-age recruits. A
further 14 cases are still being processed.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch has said that 70,000 under-age
soldiers are serving in the Burmese armed forces.

The UN also says in its latest report on the situation that the Burmese
military junta is still recruiting child soldiers. The report on “Children
and Armed Conflict” was released this month.

Human rights groups say children are recruited at train stations, bus
depots, tea shops, outside video halls and movie cinemas or even while
walking home at night.

The groups say the young recruits are threatened and beaten if they refuse
to agree to undergo military training. After their training, many are sent
to areas where the army is in conflict with ethnic groups.

____________________________________

June 24, Kachin News Group
Junta deploys fresh troops secretly in Kachin State

The Burmese military junta is secretly deploying more combat troops in
Kachin State at a time when negotiations are on with the Kachin
Independence Organization (KIO) over the transformation of its armed-wing
into a battalion of a "Border Guard Force", said local sources.

As of the second week of June, able soldiers have been selected from
different battalions and secretly infused into local Burmese Army
battalions and military bases in the frontlines in different regions of
Kachin State. They include two unidentified Light Infantry Divisions, said
a source close to Burmese troops.

The new batch of troops are now secretly being stationed in the areas
around Bhamo District in the eastern region of Irrawaddy River (also
called Mali Hka in Kachin) and the areas between Myitkyina-Mandalay
railways in the western region of the Irrawaddy River, the sources added.

Eyewitnesses in Bhamo said they often see Burmese military columns on the
road between Bhamo-Namkham (Namhkam in Kachin), the illegal border trade
route with China. They also see military columns of the Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), the armed-wing of KIO on the same trade route.

The KIO suggested to the junta that the KIA be made a "State Security
Force" instead of the junta-proposed "Border Guard Force" during the
second meeting between KIO delegates and the regime over transforming KIA,
in Mali Hka Center in the junta's Northern Command headquarters in the
Kachin State's capital Myitkyina on May 21, said KIO sources.

The KIO delegation was led by Vice-president No. 1 Lt-Gen Gauri Zau Seng
while the junta's delegates were led by Lt-Gen Ye Myint of Chief of
Military Affairs Security and Northern Command Commander Brig-Gen Soe Win.

Meanwhile, KIO leaders are campaigning among the Kachin community in its
controlled areas in Kachin State and in Northeast Shan State. It is
explaining about the proposed KIA’s transformation. They are also asking
for written suggestions to be sent to the KIO central committee, said
Kachins in the two states. It is a month-long campaign to be concluded in
June, said KIO officers.

Meanwhile, KIA troops have been alerted and are on standby in all
battalions in Kachin State and Northeast Shan State to defend itself
against the Burmese Army, said KIA officials.

All Kachin political organizations in the country and abroad and the
Kachin public have advised to the KIO/A to reject the proposal of
transforming the KIA and fight the junta, according to the Kachin media.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

June 24, Wall Street Journal
UK Brown: UK open to new sanctions against Myanmar
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown reiterated Wednesday that his government
would tighten sanctions against Myanmar over what he called the "sham
trial" of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

"At the last meeting of the European Council we sent a very powerful
message that unless action is taken in Burma to free Aung San Suu Kyi,
then we are prepared to take further sanctions against the regime," Brown
said in the weekly question and answer session in parliament.

Brown also called on U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon to visit Myanmar.

The prime minister said the actions of the Myamnmar regime were
"completely unacceptable."
____________________________________

June 24, Irrawaddy
Burmese gems for sale – Arkar Moe

A special Burmese gems emporium organized by the state-run Myanmar Gems
Enterprise (MGE) is taking place at the Myanmar Convention Center (MCC).
The sale started on 22 June and ends on July 4.

Over 8000 jade lots as well as quality gems, pearls and jewelry are to be
sold through competitive bidding by tender.

Rangoon-based gems traders said regular jade buyers from Taiwan, Hong Kong
and Beijing would come in lower numbers than in former years because of
global calls for a boycott on Burmese gems and tightening Western
sanctions.

Former US President George Bush signed the Burma Jade Act into law on July
29, 2008, restricting the import of precious Burmese gems and stones and
extending existing import sanctions on Burma.

Charles Perigh, a western gemstone dealer with many friends in Burma, told
The Irrawaddy: “Most of the best pits in Mogok, which is also called
Rubyland, are run by relatives of high ranking family members of the
Burmese military. There is no stability in the gems business and nothing
is definite these days.”

“Although the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings company (UMEH) sells
gemstones in Rangoon by auction twice per year, low and medium quality
roughs are cut and sold directly in Mogok through brokers,” Perigh said.

“Moreover, the cut stones, whether loose or mounted in jewelry, go to
Thailand from Rangoon in different ways.”

“Some unique and first-class gems, such as clean pigeon-blood rubies
weighing several carats, have a different destiny. These rubies often go
directly into the pockets of family members of the regime in Mogok, who
secretly send them to Singapore for sale through brokers to get a better
price,” said Perigh.

According to officials at the US Department of Treasury, the sanctions
target two conglomerates: the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited
(UMEH) and the Myanmar Economic Corporation. Both have extensive
businesses in a variety of sectors critical to the Burmese government,
including the gem, banking and construction industries.

Perigh said: “I do not think the embargo is effective. In fact the jade
business is Chinese. Roughs including huge boulders weighing several
quintals are mainly exported to Hong Kong. This trade can bring great
profit to the Burmese generals.”

Awng Wa, a member of the board of advisers for the All Kachin Students and
Youth Union (AKSYU), who regularly monitors the jade trade at the border,
said to The Irrawaddy: “Trade is only possible for persons close to the
Burmese generals. Only they  can easily go and sell in China, Singapore
and other Asean countries. Moreover, they can buy very precious high
quality rubies, sapphires and other gems at bargain prices now.”

“Nowadays, Jade sales are very low. Demand from Chinese traders has
dropped, and dealing at the jade market in Hpacan has fallen. Most
joint-venture jade companies in Hpacan have suspended mining operations,
though some joint-venture jade companies which are related to Burmese
military leaders remain in operation,” Awng Wa said.

According to the Central Statistical Organization, Burma produced
30,896.44 tons of jade and 20.5 million carats of gems in 2008. The gems
included ruby, sapphire, spinel and peridot, as well as 767 kilograms of
pearl.

Burma usually holds gem auctions twice a year, but in recent years they
have been held with increasing frequency in a bid to raise foreign
currency amid tightening sanctions against the junta. Four such auctions
were held in 2006.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

June 24, Associated Press
Groups fear Malaysia may deport Myanmar protesters

Malaysian authorities might deport up to 14 Myanmar nationals who were
arrested at a demonstration to mark jailed pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi's birthday, human rights activists said Wednesday.

Police detained 16 Myanmar nationals at a rally outside a Kuala Lumpur
shopping mall Friday, but two of them were released after they were found
to have valid immigration documents, said Latheefa Koya, a lawyer whose
opposition party helped organize the demonstration.

At least five face the threat of being sent back to Myanmar, Latheefa
said. The other nine are registered by the United Nations' refugee agency
as asylum seekers who fled their military-ruled country, so they might be
allowed to remain in Malaysia, she added.

Khalid Abu Bakar, police chief of central Selangor state, said officials
were investigating whether the detainees were illegal immigrants. Some of
them would be handed to immigration officials within two weeks, he said,
but it was not clear when they might be deported.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch urged Malaysia to free all the
detainees, who joined the demonstration to protest Suu Kyi's detention in
Myanmar, which is also known as Burma.

"By detaining Burmese asylum seekers who were calling for democracy in
their homeland, Malaysia was broadcasting support for Burma's despotic
generals," the group's deputy Asia director, Elaine Pearson, said in a
statement late Tuesday.

The U.N. refugee agency has registered more than 48,000 refugees in
Malaysia, most from Myanmar. But community leaders estimate the number of
people from Myanmar living in Malaysia is about twice that.

Those caught staying illegally face arrest and can be whipped as
punishment before being deported. The government said recently that those
who flee persecution in Myanmar and are registered as refugees are
generally not deported.

Concerts, candlelight vigils and other gatherings for Suu Kyi's 64th
birthday were held in cities worldwide last week. She has spent more than
13 of the past 19 years in detention without trial, mostly under house
arrest.

Suu Kyi is being held in Yangon's Insein Prison while being tried for
violating the terms of her house arrest when an uninvited American man
swam secretly to her closely guarded lakeside home last month and stayed
two days. If convicted, she faces up to five years in prison. (By JULIA
ZAPPEI/Associated Press Writer)

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

June 24, Irrawaddy
Than Shwe maneuvers to retain power – Aung Lynn Htut

If Burma’s State Peace Development Council (SPDC) holds a successful
election in 2010, the Burmese people will lose all hope of freedom and the
generals who now rule the country will retain their power.

There are three nominations for presidency in the 2008 constitution—one
from the military, one from the Senate or ethnic leaders’ hluttaw and one
from Congress members. The Senate and the House then vote to choose the
president of Burma.

According to the latest information from Naypyidaw, the military will
nominate Gen Thura Shwe Mann and he will be Burma’s president. The Senate
will nominate a prominent ethnic leader and the House will nominate a
member of the Union Solidarity Development Association (USDA), Kyant Phut.

After the 2010 election, Shwe Mann will issue a state order that Snr-Gen
Than Shwe, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye and remaining SPDC members become
patrons or advisers of the National Security Council of a new Burmese
government. It means Than Shwe and his party will retain their grip on
state power.

The military gets 25 percent of the seats at state, regional, district,
township and village levels of the Burmese administration, according to
the 2008 constitution. The military has a plan to assign deputy regional
commanders as “second men” of regional administrations, deputy regiment
commanders as “second men” of district administrations, majors or captains
for township administrations and other ranks for village administrations.

After Than Shwe assumed state power in April, 1992, he arranged to hold a
National Convention. He instructed Secretary (1) Gen Khin Nyunt and
Secretary (2) Tin Oo to ensure that the military’s leading role should be
one of the principal aims of the National Convention.

Khin Nyunt and Tin Oo objected, saying civilian politics would then
disappear in Burma. Than Shwe ignored them, saying he had a long-term plan
for a military role in future Burmese politics.

Although he appoints current ministers and the members of USDA who will
organize the 2010 election, he still worries about its success. Because of
his fear of losing control, he tries to get as many of his people in every
sphere of government and pressures others to accept them as well. He is
worried about the support he commands and whether his orders will be
followed.

To achieve his aims, Than Shwe is using government money instead of his
own. He promises that the 2010 election will be fair and honest, so he
cannot use his power to influence its outcome without arousing
international anger.

There is much discussion among the generals about where Aung San Suu Kyi
and her National League for Democracy (NLD) stand. They are aware that if
the NLD participates, the party stands a high chance of winning, just as
it did in 1990.

There’s a fear among the generals that even among the 25 percent
representation reserved for the military, as much as 15 percent might
support the NLD. With that prospect in mind, some generals are seeking to
exclude NLD officials from running for office.
Ultimately, the generals still have to wait for Than Shwe’s orders. Until
recently, he tried very hard to ignore the NLD and to force his ideas on
Burma.

The trial of Suu Kyi and the worldwide wave of condemnation it provoked
have forced Than Shwe to reconsider his position.

Last month, he sent Shwe Mann to China to seek assurance of support for
the junta.
The Chinese leaders requested a meeting with the junta’s No 2, Maung Aye,
who visited Beijing on June 15. Foreign Minister Nyan Win is shortly to
visit the United Nations in New York.

The ethnic ceasefire groups pose another problem for Than Shwe. The ethnic
groups dislike the 2008 constitution and the election plan, and they don’t
want to surrender to the Burmese military. They accuse Than Shwe of
diminishing Burma’s federal policy and of destroying the Union of Myanmar.

Than Shwe promised ethnic leaders that if the armed groups agreed to
non-disintegration of the Union, national solidarity and the perpetuation
of sovereignty, he would be ready to talk to them. He promised government
support for development in ceasefire areas.

He also promised to allow ethnic politics to be discussed at the National
Convention, but then went back on that pledge.

After approving the 2008 constitution, he instructed the ethnic ceasefire
groups to surrender and lay down their arms and proposed that their troops
should serve as border security guards. The proposal was rejected by the
largest ceasefire groups.

Than Shwe will take time to decide on a verdict for Suu Kyi’s trial,
hoping international pressure will ease. There are two sayings to describe
his frame of mind: “He doesn’t care what anyone thinks. People will forget
in seven days” and “If there is tension, he will reduce it. If there isn’t
tension, he will create it.”

In the 2010 election, Than Shwe will use his military power and influence
to affect the outcome as much as possible.  He realizes the importance of
this election on his future.

If he wins, Burma will be under his tyranny for a long time to come. If he
loses, he knows he faces possible arraignment before an international
court.

Because of the importance of this election and the future of the people
and country, we must try to educate and influence civilians as well as
military officials. Other nations are monitoring Burma very closely, so
General Than Shwe feels the pressure and cannot make dishonest decisions.

The author is a former officer in the counterintelligence department of
the Office of the Chief of Military Intelligence (OCMI) and former deputy
chief of the Burmese embassy in Washington. He lives in Washington is
seeking political asylum in the United States.

____________________________________

June 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma acts the bully on Thailand – Larry Jagan

Relations between Thailand and Burma are set to deteriorate dramatically
following Bangkok’s warning that the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi could all
but destroy Burma’s already fragile credibility.

Thailand’s current position on Burma is stronger than usual, bolstered by
concerns that Burma’s behaviour, by implication, would also impact on the
credibility of the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
bloc. The junta of course dismisses these concerns, citing the ASEAN
mantra of non-interference in its defense. But this time Burma’s political
games are certain to be met with more pressure from its Asian allies and
neighbours, especially Thailand.

The vexed issue of Burma is high on the agenda of Thai prime minister
Abhisit Vejjajiva’s current visit to Beijing. He will certainly discuss
the issue with his counterpart, Wen Jiabao, and the Chinese president, Hu
Jintao, according to Thai government officials. The junta’s antics are all
the more pressing now with detailed information emerging on the regime’s
connection to Pyongyang; and now the North Korean ship en route to Rangoon
has increased the temperature.

Apart from North Korean missiles and possible nuclear technology, there is
much for Bangkok and Beijing to discuss during this trip. A key issue will
also be the preparations for the ASEAN Foreign Ministers retreat in
Phuket, and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) where the problems in Burma
will also overshadow other important issues at time when the region is
reeling from the effects of the international financial crisis and credit
crunch.

A statement prepared for the meeting by the Indonesians is likely to be
endorsed by China. China understands that at present its best strategic
position is to strongly support Thailand as the ASEAN chair, as later this
year Vietnam takes over and Hanoi will be less inclined to engage the
Chinese.

Under the Thai chairmanship, ASEAN has begun to take a more aggressive
position on Burma, and issued a strongly worded statement after Aung San
Suu Kyi was put on trial last month. “With the eyes of the international
community on Myanmar at present, the honour and the credibility of the
Government of the Union of Myanmar are at stake,” the statement said.

But the Thais went a step further and specifically raised the issue of the
pro-democracy leader’s detention. “The Government of the Union of Myanmar
is reminded that the ASEAN Leaders had called for the immediate release of
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” said the statement. This was a reference to the
Chairman’s statement at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ ministerial meeting
in Phnom Penh in July 2003, after she was attacked by pro-government thugs
and detained in May that year. It was later endorsed by the ASEAN leaders
at their summit on the Indonesian island of Bali in October.

The Burmese government, as expected, reacted angrily. “Thailand’s
statement is not in conformity with ASEAN practices, incorrect in facts,
and interfering with the internal affairs of Myanmar,” was the official
response.

But behind the scenes, relations between the countries are in free-fall,
according to diplomats based in Bangkok and Rangoon. “There is no doubt
that the offensive against the Karen [along the border with Thailand] is
in part intended to be a warning to Thailand not to interfere,” the
Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University, Win Min told DVB.

While it may not be in direct response to the Thai statement, it is
clearly aimed at sending a cautionary message to the Thai government that
any interference in Burmese affairs will bring about a strong Burmese
reaction. Gone is the conciliatory approach in discussions between the
country’s two foreign ministers in April, when the Thai foreign minister,
Kasit Piromya, went to Naypyidaw and was asked to help broker peace talks
with the Karen National Union.

Now Thailand is increasingly alarmed at Burma’s plans to acquire nuclear
technology, including for military purposes. Recent revelations of the
myriad of tunnels being built by North Korean engineers and workers in
Naypyidaw and along the Thai border in Shan state, has given the Thai
authorities a significant jolt. But even more disturbing is the news that
North Korea may be about to provide Burma with medium-range missiles,
sophisticated anti-aircraft and radar systems, including
surface-to-surface (SCUD) missiles with a 700 kilometer range, that can
only be aimed at Thai territory. It is highly likely that the cargo of the
North Korean Kang Nam ship includes missiles, according to South Korean
intelligence sources.

Thailand of course is still searching for a means to maintain the pressure
on Burma, while trying to find ways to lessen the tension between the two
countries. Thailand’s position on Aung San Suu Kyi, and the national
reconciliation process, will not weaken, even under the Burmese blackmail
threats.

In a recent interview, the Thai prime minister made the government’s
position clear: “Clearly our stance has been and will always be that the
political process in Myanmar will have to be inclusive to gain the
acceptability and respectability of the international community.
Otherwise, obviously, Myanmar’s credibility and ASEAN’s credibility will
be affected.”

When the former Thai foreign minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, tried to
support the Burmese regime’s plans for political reform – Khin Nyunt’s
roadmap to democracy -- through his creation of the Bangkok process in
2003, he was roundly condemned by the junta’s top leaders.

“We reject Thailand’s ‘mega-phone’ diplomacy”, the deputy leader of
Burmese military intelligence, Major General Kyaw Win told me. This was a
reference to the Thai foreign minister’s frequent briefing of Thai and
foreign journalists on the progress of negotiations and talks – sometimes
elaborating his views which were not always directly communicated to his
counterpart beforehand.

But of course the regime has no qualms about resorting to a megaphone
approach when it suits them. Its latest tirade against the Thai government
was an article by Kyaw Ye Min accusing the Thai authorities of aiding and
abetting the insurgent movements – especially the Karen – by allowing
refugee camps in Thailand.

The junta was irritated by the Thai foreign minister’s suggestion that
jailing Aung San Suu Kyi was in effect a threat to the region. “At present
relations between the two countries are under [a] strain which is
unprecedented in history,” said the writer in the state-mouthpiece New
Light of Myanmar newspaper. He suggested the only way for harmonious
relations to be reestablished was for Bangkok to “cooperate with us in
genuine goodwill”. In other words, stop publicly criticising and
pressuring Burma – something the Democrat-led government is unlikely to
do.