BurmaNet News, July 14, 2009

[Editor]

July 14, 2009, Issue #3753

QUOTE OF THE DAY
Without participation of Aung San Suu Kyi, without her being able to
campaign freely, and without her NLD party [being able] to establish party
offices all throughout the provinces, this [2010] election may not be
regarded as credible and legitimate.
— United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Burma’s amnesty announcement draws skepticism
Washington Post: Burma's offer of amnesty met with cautious optimism
WSJ: Suu Kyi trial in Myanmar could be nearing an end
DVB: 87-year-old opposition member imprisoned
Irrawaddy: Mon group offered alternative to border guard proposal

ON THE BORDER
SHAN: Deputy FM: Migrant workers are good people

BUSINESS / TRADE
DPA: China ranks as Myanmar's top investor in fiscal 2008-09
Mizzima: Daewoo led consortium to invest US$ 3 billion in Burma

INTERNATIONAL
DVB: Ban Ki-moon talks of ‘a major lost opportunity’ for Burma
Irrawaddy: US, Britain and France doubt credible election; China calls for
lifting sanctions

OPINION / OTHER
Foreign Policy: China's black cat, white cat diplomacy - Wen Liao
Asia Times: UN gains leverage over Myanmar - Haseenah Koyakutty

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 14, Irrawaddy
Burma’s amnesty announcement draws skepticism - Wai Moe

Burmese dissidents are treating with caution an announcement by Burma’s
United Nations ambassador that preparations are being made to release an
unknown number of prisoners before the 2010 election.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters in New York on Monday that
the Burmese permanent representative at the UN, Than Swe, had announced
that “at the request of the secretary-general in Myanmar [Burma], the
Myanmar government is processing to grant amnesty to prisoners on
humanitarian grounds and with a view to enabling them to participate in
the 2010 general elections.”

Ban told reporters: “This is encouraging, but I have to continue to follow
up how they will implement all the issues raised during my visit.”

At the headquarters of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD)
in Rangoon, spokesman Nyan Win pointed out that Than Swe’s announcement
made no reference to political prisoners.

“We should carefully read the text of the ambassador. He did not say the
junta will release political prisoners,” Nyan Win said. “He just said the
junta would grant amnesty to prisoners on humanitarian grounds. So I do
not think the comment was different from previous ones.”

According to human rights groups, the junta keeps more than 2,100
political prisoners behind bars. The number of political prisoners has
doubled since crackdowns on monk-led demonstrators in late 2007.

Burma’s most famous political prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi, is currently on
trial in Rangoon, charged with violating the terms of her house arrest
order. There have been suggestions that the regime intends to keep her in
detention or even in jail at least until the 2010 general election has
been held.

Bo Kyi, joint-secretary of the Thailand-based Assistance Association of
Political Prisoners (AAPP), a Burmese human rights group focusing on
political prisoner issues, told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that the Burmese
ambassador’s statement  was “the old song” and “a kind of trick” to
confuse the international community.

“If the junta has the political will to release prisoners, they should
withdraw the charge against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and release her and all
political prisoners,” said Bo Kyi, a former political prisoner.

“The junta often declares an amnesty, but then only a few political
prisoners are among those freed. We should be aware that the junta has
never kept its word,” he said.

“Political prisoners, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, are political pawns
in the junta’s international playground.”

The regime released 6,313 prisoners in February, saying the amnesty was
for humanitarian reasons and to enable those freed “to participate in fair
elections to be held in 2010.” However, there were only 31 political
prisoners among them.

In the previous amnesty, in September 2008, the regime freed 9,002
prisoners, saying it wanted to “turn them into citizens to be able to
participate in building a new nation”.  But only nine political prisoners,
including Win Tin, a prominent NLD leader, were included in the amnesty.

In an amnesty in November 2007 to mark the conclusion of the National
Convention, the junta released 8,585 prisoners. Twenty political prisoners
were among them.

After the downfall of former Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and the
dismantling of his Military Intelligence in 2004, the junta granted an
amnesty for more than 14,000 prisoners. They included 60 political
prisoners, including prominent dissident Min Ko Naing—who is now back in
jail.

All political prisoners, who were released in amnesties, were near the end
of the prison terms.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/print_article.php?art_id=16325

____________________________________

July 14, Washington Post
Burma's offer of amnesty met with cautious optimism - Tim Johnston

Political analysts cautiously welcomed the Burmese government's promise of
amnesty for prisoners but warned that proof of the authorities' sincerity
will be measured in how many political detainees are freed.

"It is too early to say for sure exactly what it means. We don't know how
many will be released or how many political prisoners will be among them,"
said Thant Myint-U, an analyst and author of a book about Burma's history
titled "River of Lost Footsteps."

On Monday, the Burmese said they were preparing an amnesty offer at the
request of U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who visited Burma two weeks
ago.

"They are looking for ways they can respond positively to the secretary
general's visit without being seen to be caving in to foreign pressure,"
said Thant, grandson of former U.N. Secretary General U Thant.

But Thant said he does not believe that the country's most prominent
prisoner, opposition leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, whose
current trial for breaching the terms of her house arrest has sparked
international outrage, is likely to be among those freed.

"It is still possible that she will be released, but I think it is a long
shot," he said.

Rights groups estimate that Burmese authorities are holding about 2,100
political prisoners, many of whom were detained after the bloody
suppression of pro-democracy rallies in 2007.

Aung Zaw, the editor of the respected magazine Irrawaddy and a prominent
voice in the country's exile community, said he has seen such moves
before.

Last September, 9,002 prisoners were released -- again at a time when the
government was under severe international pressure -- but only a dozen or
so were considered political prisoners.

"I would be very careful until we see with our eyes political prisoners
are released," he said.

But some diplomats are hoping this time might be different because of a
subtle shift in the position of China, one of the Burmese government's few
remaining allies.

China gave its unequivocal support to the Burmese government at Monday's
Security Council meeting, but diplomats say that behind the scenes,
Beijing is putting considerable pressure on Burma's generals to find a way
out of the embarrassment caused by Suu Kyi's trial.

But Thant warned that the release of even substantial numbers of political
prisoners would only be small step on a long road.

"The most important thing here is whether there is any appetite for new
political dialogue," he said.

____________________________________

July 14, Wall Street Journal
Suu Kyi trial in Myanmar could be nearing an end

The trial of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi resumed briefly in
Yangon, with final arguments set for later in the month, signaling a
possible end in sight for the high-profile legal case.

Ms. Suu Kyi is accused of violating the terms of her government-imposed
house arrest by allowing an American well-wisher to visit her lakeside
home in Yangon in early May.
Related Articles

The trial was put on hold several weeks ago, as Myanmar authorities
considered appeals by her lawyers to allow more witnesses to testify on
her behalf. In the end, the authorities agreed to allow one more -- a
lawyer and member of Ms. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party --
on top of another witness that testified earlier, but they denied other
potential witnesses. Some 14 witnesses testified earlier for the
prosecution.

Human rights advocates and Western governments have widely condemned the
trial, which they say is part of an effort by Myanmar's military
government to keep the 64-year-old Nobel laureate out of the public eye
until after it holds a national election next year.

Myanmar authorities have said they had no choice but to prosecute Ms. Suu
Kyi for violating her house arrest, even though international rights
groups contend the government had no right to put her under house arrest
to begin with. Ms. Suu Kyi has lived under detention for the past six
years and 14 of the past 20, mainly in her Yangon home, and under local
law she now faces as many as five years in prison.

The defense hasn't challenged the basic facts of the case. But it has
argued the government is misapplying the law, and that the government's
own security guards should bear responsibility for letting the man --
53-year-old John Yettaw of Falcon, Missouri -- enter her guarded compound
uninvited.

In testimony Friday, defense witness Khin Moe Moe argued that Ms. Suu Kyi
violated no existing laws because she is being charged under an old
Myanmar constitution that was abolished 21 years ago, the Associated Press
reported.

At the end of the nearly seven-hour session, the court set July 24 for
final arguments in the case. A verdict would likely come somewhat later.

"I have known [Ms. Suu Kyi] for 20 years and based on that and legal
points, I made my testimony. She violated no laws," Khin Moe Moe told
reporters. She said Ms. Suu Kyi looked "healthy and alert."

Riot police fanned out across the city on Friday and especially around
Insein prison, where Ms. Suu Kyi is being held and where 100 or so
protesters have gathered off and on since her trial began in mid-May.

Many Myanmar residents view Ms. Suu Kyi as the rightful leader of Myanmar
after her political party easily won the last elections held in 1990. But
the government ignored those results and has jailed many opposition
leaders and dissidents since then. It has also led violent crackdowns on
attempts by dissidents -- including Buddhist monks who marched in 2007 --
to publicly criticize the regime.

The resumption of the trial underscored the failure of recent diplomatic
efforts to set Ms. Suu Kyi free. United Nations Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon in early July made an official visit to the country to plead for
her release, but he was rebuffed by the country's top military leaders,
and he wasn't allowed to see her.

Some advocates have suggested that the international pressure on Myanmar's
military government could lead the junta to grant her a light sentence,
though critics of the regime fear that's unlikely.

Mr. Yettaw, who is facing trial for trespassing, has pleaded not guilty.
He has said in court that he dreamed Ms. Suu Kyi would be assassinated and
felt he had to visit her to warn her of the danger.

____________________________________

July 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
87-year-old opposition member imprisoned - Khin Hnin Htet

An elderly member of Burma’s opposition National League for Democracy
party who is said to be in declining health was yesterday sentenced to two
years in prison under defamation charges.

According to his colleague, the 87-year-old chairman of the National
League for Democracy’s (NLD) Taungok township branch in Arakan state, Kyaw
Khaing, was denied medical care throughout the trial, during which he was
“slipping in and out of consciousness”.

"He has been suffering from dysentery for the last three to four days and
he had to be supported [on the way] to the court,” said Tin Thein Aung.

“Deputy police chief Tin Maung San would not allow him to be
hospitalized,” he said, adding that the doctor refused to come to the
courtroom but instead handed medicine to his son.

Kyaw Khaing was sued for defamation in June by his predecessor in the job,
Than Pe, although Tin Thein Aung argued that the sentencing came about
“because he is an NLD [member] and involved in politics”.

There are currently around 470 NLD members imprisoned in Burma, out of a
total of 2,160 political prisoners.

The verdict arrived on the same day that Burma’s ambassador to the United
Nations, Than Swe, announced that the government “is processing to grant
amnesty to prisoners on humanitarian grounds and with a view to enabling
them to participate in the 2010 general elections."

The pledge followed a visit to Burma earlier this month by UN Secretary
General Ban Ki-moon, who urged the release of political prisoners prior to
the elections next year.

Ban Ki-moon reported back to the UN Security Council yesterday, and said
that his denial of a meeting with imprisoned NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi
was “a major lost opportunity" for the country.

'The choice for Myanmar's [Burma] leaders in the coming days and weeks
will be between meeting that responsibility in the interest of all
concerned, or failing their own people and each one of you,' he said.

It was not explicitly stated however that the prisoner amnesty would
include political prisoners; in February this year over 6000 prisoners
were released in a ‘goodwill’ amnesty by the government, although only 23
were political prisoners.

____________________________________

July 14, Irrawaddy
Mon group offered alternative to border guard proposal - Lawi Weng

The Burmese army’s Southeast Regional Commander in Moulmein, Mon State,
has suggested to the New Mon State Party (NMSP) that it should transform
its armed wing into a militia group if it doesn’t want to take up border
guard duties.

A NMSP spokesman at the party’s liaison office in Sangkalaburi, Thailand,
said Maj-Gen Thet Naing Win made the proposal at a meeting with NMSP
leaders in Moulmein on June 7.

The NMSP, like other armed ethnic groups, has been under pressure by the
regime to reassign its armed wing into a border guard force. The party has
been given until the end of July to reach a decision.

NMSP leaders will hold an urgent meeting on July 25 to decide whether to
comply with the regime’s proposal, the spokesman said. He said, however,
that the party would accept no proposal that put its armed forces under
the command of the Burmese army.

“Even if we transform our troops into a militia group, we also have to
live under their command. So, we don’t accept this idea,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Kachin Independent Organization (KIO) has proposed to the
junta that its armed wing should become a “State Security Force (SSF)” in
Kachin State.

James Lun Dau, a KIO central committee member who lives in Thailand, said
KIO leaders made the proposal at a meeting last week with the junta's
Northern Regional Commander, Maj-Gen Soe Win, in Myitkyina Township.

“It seems they are considering our proposal,” he said.

The KIO has not yet formally responded to the Burmese junta’s proposal to
reassign its armed forces to border guard duties.

The regime is pressuring 17 ethnic ceasefire groups in Burma to transform
themselves into border security guards before the 2010 election, setting
an original deadline of June 30 for a decision.

Only the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army has so far reacted positively to
the regime proposal. Several groups, including the United Wa State Army,
Burma’s largest armed ethnic movement, have rejected it.

Some groups have told The Irrawaddy they don’t trust the military
government by placing their troops under Burmese army command.

Before the June 30 deadline, Lt-Gen Ye Myint, secretary of the
transformation committee for the border guard force, visited the Wa,
Kokang and Mongla regions to promote the plan.

Analysts said that the junta is very cautious at the moment in handling
the issue, aware that it’s dealing with well-armed forces.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

July 14, Shan Herald Agency for News
Deputy FM: Migrant workers are good people - Hseng Khio Fah

A representative of the Burmese military government, while meeting with
Thai labor mister last Saturday said families of migrant workers applying
for new passport documents under the national verification process will
not be harassed, according to The Manager Online, 11 July.

On 11 July, visiting Burma’ Deputy Foreign Minister Maung Myint and
Thailand Labor Minister Paitoon Kaewthong met in  Phuket on regulations
for the verification of Burmese nationals in Thailand and in Burma in
order to allow them to reside and work as legal laborers in Thailand.

0 applications have been sent to the Burmese government. But only some
7,000 were issued passports. Using non-Burmese language in filling up the
forms and providing false information on the applicants’ home addresses
were cited as problems for the rest.

About 500,000 migrant workers are registered with the labor ministry.
Since early this month, the provincial employment authorities have been
calling on new migrant workers for registration. They will be asked to
fill up the new nationality identification forms starting 15 July.

The passport issuing offices will be opening along the Thai-Burma border
at Myawaddy, Tachilek and Kawthawng (Victoria Point). About 200 workers
will be accepted per day. The visa fee on the Thai side will be 2,000 Baht
per person. They will be allowed to work for another 2 years with another
2 years of extension.

There are at least 2 million legal and illegal migrant workers in
Thailand. But there is no law to protect those migrant workers.

“After July, crackdown operation on illegal migrants will be conducted,”
the report quoted the minister as saying.

Maung Myint during the meeting, said many migrants are afraid to apply for
the national verification process because of rumors that we [local
authorities] will use their information to persecute their families.

“The government will never do so because it believes that people working
in Thailand are good people and their jobs are also legal,” the report
quoted him as saying.
He continued that the Burmese government has been trying to solve the
problem of illegal Burmese migrant workers in Thailand for about 5 years.
However, it had failed to achieve it until now because of many
difficulties; among those were language problems and inaccurate addresses.

At the same time, there was a two day meeting of provincial authorities,
doctors and provincial employment authorities with over two hundred
employers from Chiangmai province to discuss the national verification
process, according to Nang Hern Kham, Shan Radio Program and Education
Media in Chiangmai.

“Most bosses seems to have less interest in the process as they think it
is a waste of their time queuing up for their turns and others are worried
for the security of their workers,” she said.

Phanthila Kaewboonrueng from provincial employment department office said
that Thailand will not interrupt internal affairs of neighboring
countries, in reply to the question by an employer, “Who is going to take
responsibility if workers’ families are persecuted by the Burmese
authorities.”

In 2006, Thailand and Burma agreed to set up nationality identification
centers for Burmese migrant workers. But the two countries failed to
successfully implement the agreement, when news of junta authorities
terrorizing their families coercing them to pay bribes, after using their
personal information received through the work permit process, to find
their relatives, were reported.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

July 14, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
China ranks as Myanmar's top investor in fiscal 2008-09

China was Myanmar's top foreign investor in the fiscal year 2008-09,
official statistics revealed Tuesday.

China's total investments in Myanmar last fiscal year, ending on March 31,
amounted to 856 million dollars, compared with the country's total of 985
million dollars in foreign direct investment,
according to figures released by the Central Statistical Organization.

Much of China's investments were accounted for by the China Metal Mining
Group, which signed a nickel-production contract in 2008 with a mining
company under Myanmar's Ministry of Mines.

The contract involved the development of a large-scale nickel mining and
smelting project in Myanmar, also known as Burma.

Russia came second among foreign investor nations, with 94 million dollars
sunk in oil and gas exploration, and Vietnam ranked third with 20 million
dollars in investments.

Myanmar's neighbour Thailand was the fourth largest investor with 15
million dollars committed by Thai companies, mostly in the tourism sector.

"China has mostly been investing in exploration of mineral resources
because they need minerals for their industrial development," said one
Yangon-based university economist who asked to
remain anonymous.

"We would like to see China invest in the industrial sector if they really
want to see Myanmar become a developed country," he added.

Myanmar's ruling junta has maintained close ties with China since it took
power in 1988, after a crackdown on a pro-democracy movement that left an
estimated 3,000 dead.

China, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has
repeatedly defended the country's poor human rights record and failure to
implement democratic reforms.

____________________________________

July 14, Mizzima News
Daewoo led consortium to invest US$ 3 billion in Burma - Solomon

A consortium of companies led by South Korea’s Daewoo International will
invest over US$ 3 billion in gas production in the West Coast of Burma.

A Daewoo International official in Seoul told Mizzima on Tuesday that the
company and its partners – Korean Gas, India’s Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation (ONGC) and Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) – plan to
invest over US $ 3 billion for production of gas from the offshore Shwe
Gas fields in Western Burma.

“We have only estimated over US$ 3 billion. Actually we have not decided
yet, so I can’t say how much we are going to invest,” the official told
Mizzima.

The Block A1 and A3 of the offshore Gas fields in Western Arakan State is
being jointly developed by Daewoo International with 60 per cent share,
ONGC with 20 per cent share, GAIL with 10 per cent and KOGAS another 10
per cent.

On June 15, the consortium including Myanmar Gas and Oil Enterprise (MOGE)
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to sell gas from blocks A1 and
A3 to China through the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

According to an ONGC report, the Shwe and Shwe Phyu fields from block A1
is estimated to have natural gas reserves of 3.83 TCF and Block A3 of Mya
field has about 1.52 TCF.

Daewoo said it expects a profit of over US$ 10 billion for a contract
period of 25 to 30 years. Following the project agreement with CNPC,
Daewoo said the sales of gas might begin as early as 2012.

While the companies and the Burmese junta have a smooth working agreement,
rights groups and activists including environmentalists have given vent to
their concern over the project implementation saying it lacks proper
assessment and does not incorporate the losses that will be incurred by
local residents.

Wong Aung, a member of the Shwe Gas Campaign based in Thailand urged the
companies including Daewoo, to reconsider their plans to continue with
their business, with the current military rulers, as it will negatively
impact the local people.

“They [the companies] should not only invest in oil and gas, rather they
should think of investing in sectors such as education, health,
electricity and transportation, which are vital for the people,” said Wong
Aung.

His argument is that while extracting natural gas could constitute a
positive development, under the current military rulers, Burmese people
often find their rights abused when projects including gas exploration
takes place in their region.

“There are no benefits for the local people. All benefits goes to the
military government and the locals suffer and struggle because of the
project,” he added.

He said it is sad but true that Burma’s neighbouring country including
India, Thailand and China are increasingly interested in investing in
Burma while largely ignoring the pleas of the people, who are supposedly
the rightful owners of the natural reserves.

He said building gas pipelines have become a major concern for the local
people as it brings along an increasing number of Burmese Army troops to
be deployed along the project site for security.

Besides, he said often local villagers are used as porters by the military
and many lands confiscated for the pipeline to pass.

“Local residents will face severe rights violations including forced
labour, torture, land confiscation, and even extra-judicial killings with
the increase in the number of military camps,” said Wong Aung.

The construction of the 2,380 kilometre pipeline project that will connect
Arakan State with China’s Yunnan Province will begin soon.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
Ban Ki-moon talks of ‘a major lost opportunity’ for Burma - Htet Aung Kyaw
and Francis Wade

The UN chief yesterday briefed the Security Council on what had been “a
major lost opportunity” for the Burmese junta to commit to terms set out
by him on a recent visit that would kick-start democratic reform.

Ban Ki-moon delivered the verdict to Security Council members in New York
following his two-day trip to Burma earlier this month, in which he came
away with few concessions from an unwavering military government.

Reporting back on the visit, he said his three principal expectations,
which included the release of all political prisoners and calls for free
and fair elections next year, were “conveyed in the clearest terms”.

“The choice for Myanmar’s [Burma] leaders in the coming days and weeks
will be between meeting that responsibility in the interest of all
concerned, or failing their own people and each one of you,” he said.

Although the speech was littered with suggestions on what steps the
Burmese government should take in order to meet the UN’s demands, it
remains unclear what action will now be taken by the UN the apply pressure
on the regime.

Spokesperson for the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party,
Nyan Win, said that current diplomatic efforts by the UN were “bearing no
fruit”.

“We expect the UN Security Council, those who have the authority, to come
out with a decision in unison and be able to adopt a binding resolution
[on Burma],” he said.

During the briefing, Burma’s ambassador to the UN, Than Swe, said that
“the utmost had been done” to accommodate Ban Ki-moon’s requests.

He also said that the Burmese government “is processing to grant amnesty
to prisoners on humanitarian grounds and with a view to enabling them to
participate in the 2010 general elections."

It was not, however, explicitly stated however that the prisoner amnesty
would include political prisoners.

The exiled National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma’s (NCGUB)
ambassador to the UN said the Burma should not rely wholeheartedly on
pressure form the UN.

“The UN will do what they need to do but its role in bringing change [to
Burma] is only a part of the whole process – more relies on activity from
inside the country,” said Dr Thaung Htun.

“We have to fight for our own rights. We have to keep this in our minds
and work on what we need to do individually or as a group.”

____________________________________

July 14, Irrawaddy
US, Britain and France doubt credible election; China calls for lifting
sanctions - Lalit K Jha

Three permanent members of United Nations Security Council—the United
States, Britain and France—expressed skepticism that the Burmese junta
will hold free, fair and credible general elections in 2010, while urging
the military rulers to match their words with deeds.

China, on the other hand, which has been a strong supporter of the
totalitarian Burmese rulers both inside and outside the Security Council,
urged Western countries including the US, Britain and France to lift their
economic sanctions on Burma.

“Now is the time for Burma to match its words with deeds,” said Rosemary A
DiCarlo, the US alternate representative for special political affairs,
following a Security Council briefing on Burma by UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon at the UN headquarters in New York.

DiCarlo expressed US disappointment that the Burmese authorities refused
Ban’s request to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi.

“By turning down this simple, straightforward request, the Burmese
government missed a critical opportunity to, in your words, ‘show its
commitment to a new era of political openness,’” she said.

Calling on the Burmese regime to free Aung San Suu Kyi immediately and
unconditionally, she said the junta is clearly not respecting the popular
will by putting the leader of the country’s democratic opposition on trial
for spurious charges of violating her house arrest, which itself was
illegitimate. “We are deeply concerned about these proceedings,” she said.

British Deputy Permanent Representative Philip Parham said Ban’s visit was
an opportunity for the junta to transform its relationship with the
international community which stands ready to respond positively to real
progress.

“The regime’s failure to take this opportunity has only served to isolate
it further.  We can only hope that we may yet see progress in the coming
days; it is not too late.  But if it does not come, and if we see an
unjust outcome in Aung San Suu Kyi’s trial, the international community
will need to follow the secretary-general’s lead and respond robustly,”
Parham said. “The onus is on the government to act.”

He said the generals heard the strong message the secretary-general
delivered in Rangoon when he addressed ministers and the diplomatic and
NGO communities.

“They can be in no doubt about his disappointment and the disappointment
of the international community as a whole,” Parham said.

France called for stronger actions by the Security Council.

“The current impasse is no reason for the international community to do
nothing.  The council must respond firmly if she [Suu Kyi] is found
guilty, but inaction must not be the price of its unity,” said
Jean-Maurice Ripert of France.

Far from initiating a dialogue with political parties and ethnic groups,
Ripert said the junta has unilaterally implemented a “road map” to
democracy which had led to increased polarization.

In defense of the junta, Chinese Deputy Ambassador Liu Zhenmin said Ban’s
failure to meet with Suu Kyi should not be the criterion to judge the
success of the visit.

“Gen Than Shwe had not made arrangements for the secretary-general to meet
with her, and the United Nations must respect that decision by a member
state. During his visit, the secretary-general had held in-depth dialogues
with top leaders and that would play an important role in encouraging the
democratic process,” he said.

Liu said that Ban’s visit had been significant and its positive outcome
deserved to be assessed fairly by the international community.

He said Burma’s problems could not be addressed in a Western manner, the
junta should steadily reform and the international community should fairly
assess the country’s challenges.

He called for lifting the international sanctions against Burma, a
necessary step for economic development.

“Events occurring inside Myanmar [Burma] are internal affairs that should
be handled by the government, as they posed no threat to international
peace and security. China is against isolating and sanctioning Myanmar and
its position in that regard remained unchanged,” Liu said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 10, Foreign Policy
China's black cat, white cat diplomacy - Wen Liao

Why Beijing is losing patience with its dysfunctional allies.

Deng Xiaoping famously said that it doesn't matter if a cat is black or
white so long as it catches mice. These days, China seems to be applying
Deng's logic to its neighbors: It doesn't matter if they are democratic or
despotic, so long as they safeguard China's interests.

That simple premise helps explain why, after years of working with the
military junta in Burma, China may now be looking to change tack. It's not
that China is concerned that such a government is morally suspect; it's
that Beijing worries that Burma's leaders are incompetent. And any
slippage in that country's stability could have harsh consequences for
China's own fortunes.


>From the neighbors' side of the fence, China looks like a rising hegemon,

keen to throw its weight around. The country's decisive intervention in
support of the government in the recently concluded civil war in Sri Lanka
-- a country outside its usual sphere of influence -- seemed to prove
this.

Yet seen from Beijing, it is China's allies who at times string the
country along for a ride. Two supposed subordinates in particular -- North
Korea and Burma -- leave China feeling helpless to intervene, fearful that
any instability abroad might upset China's delicate internal political
peace. As China's rapid response to unrest in its Xinjiang region makes
clear, nothing makes China's rulers more jittery than the potential of
regional or border disputes to incite internal instability. With 200
people killed in the recent riots in Xinjiang, China finds unstable
neighbors, and the threat of an influx of refugees, more dangerous than
ever.

So the calculus behind China's regional security strategy is
straightforward: If peace and prosperity among China's neighbors are not
secured, then peace, prosperity, and unity at home will be put at risk.

This strategic imperative arose after China's relative success in
navigating the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and 1998. The experience
whetted China's appetite for regional respect, and the country began to
deepen its ties with East and Southeast Asia, particularly members of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). China agreed to settle its
remaining territorial disputes with ASEAN members through collective
mechanisms for arbitration. The country also signed ASEAN's Treaty of
Amity and Cooperation, promising never to use force against ASEAN members.
It is a structure that has suited China quite well ever since, with two
nagging exceptions, North Korea and Burma.

In the first case, the survival of North Korea's regime is a key Chinese
foreign-policy goal. Beijing fears the inevitable flood of refugees that
would stream over its border following that country's collapse. Moreover,
a divided Korea suits China's purposes, because a unified Korea could
emerge as another regional heavyweight, on the magnitude of Japan. So it
is no surprise that China joined the six-party talks over North Korea's
nuclear program out of fear that Western sanctions might shatter the
North's brittle economy. Like a bank too big to fail, North Korea poses
too dire a threat for China to contemplate pushing leader Kim Jong Il very
hard. That is why China's influence over North Korea appears to be so
ineffective.

Resentful that its hands are tied with regard to North Korea, China would
like to prevent its other supposed client, Burma, from securing the same
leverage. Although Burma has often been seen as part of China's so-called
"string of pearls" policy, an attempt to build naval and intelligence
bases around the Indian Ocean, the benefits of those strategic assets have
come at a price. Indeed, recent weeks have shown China to be stealthily
exploring the possibility that jailed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
might govern Burma as a more reliable, and perhaps more pliable, neighbor
than Burma's junta does.

As the situation stands today, Burma's lawless borders permit all sorts of
poisons -- not just insurgency, but drugs and AIDS -- to enter China. The
trade in opium and heroin into China, which is partly fostered by some of
Burma's ruling generals and partly conducted by the rebel armies the junta
has failed to suppress in decades of fighting, brought drug addiction into
China's southern provinces, where ethnic minorities are clustered. Shared
needles from that plague produced China's first HIV epidemic.

Clearly, Burma is an unreliable client for China. Until now, the junta's
failing regime has survived in the cracks of the international system,
notably those formed by the mutual suspicion of its giant neighbors, China
and India, and by ASEAN's hands-off culture. But the key message of U.N.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's recent visit to Burma was not his call for
Aung San Suu Kyi's release but the signal his presence sent that those
cracks of permissibility had narrowed. Ban would not have attempted his
mission had China not signed off on it.

Indeed, China has of late been quietly reaching out to Burma's opposition.
Last year, during protests by Buddhist monks in Burma, China repeatedly
called for restraint and backed the arrival of a U.N. special envoy. Two
months ago, China signed a joint EU-ASEAN petition calling for Aung San
Suu Kyi's release. Both pleas fell on deaf ears. Now, China has stood
behind Ban's bid to end Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest.

None of this adds up to a break with Burma's generals. Not yet. But China
appears determined to explore whether there is a viable option to them.
Call this China's "Mandela Option."

The United States and Britain tacitly backed apartheid South Africa
because they feared chaos would erupt if power were transferred to the
black majority. Yet, when anti-apartheid activist Nelson Mandela emerged
from imprisonment, he forged a regime that offered better long-term
protection for U.S. and British interests than the apartheid regime ever
could. For China, Aung Sang Suu Kyi might offer a similarly safe
alternative to a regime unable to grapple with, or confine, its own
domestic pathologies. At least, as Deng might say, Aung San Suu Kyi may be
a cat worth having around China's backyard.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/10/chinas_black_cat_white_cat_diplomacy

____________________________________

July 14, Asia Times
UN gains leverage over Myanmar - Haseenah Koyakutty

The consensus headlines from United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon's recent
trip to Myanmar focused on his failure to meet with detained pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The ruling military junta's Senior General Than
Shwe disallowed the diplomatic contact because Suu Kyi is currently on
trial for allegedly violating the terms of her house arrest.

But an emerging parallel narrative is starting to generate different
headlines, where UN pressure on the military regime and political fatigue
among its top generals produces results. According to reports, Myanmar's
ambassador to the UN, U Than Swe, told the Security Council on Monday that
his government was "processing to grant amnesty" to an undisclosed number
of political prisoners to allow them to participate in democratic
elections scheduled for 2010.

Ban had pressed the military regime during his recent visit to release
over 2,100 political prisoners and ensure that the democratic elections
would be free and fair. The prisoner release announcement comes notably
while the global spotlight is focused on Myanmar's secretive military
modernization and nuclear energy designs. The UN's latest and unanimous
Security Council Resolution 1874, passed last month against North Korea,
recently forced a North Korean ship suspected of carrying arms or missile
components to abort its voyage to Myanmar and return home.

Chief of US naval operations Admiral Gary Roughhead told reporters that
the UN resolution was indication of the international community coming
together on the issue and the US navy's tracking of the North Korean ship
was a "very effective way" of preventing arms proliferation.
Significantly, China and Russia, which have both shielded Myanmar from UN
Security Council censure with their veto votes, cooperated with the
toughened sanctions against Pyongyang.

What the purportedly Myanmar-bound North Korean ship was actually carrying
remains a mystery, but the incident underscored how the UN and US are
collaborating on security issues more effectively under the Barack Obama
administration than the two sides did under the outgoing George W Bush
government. Tying Myanmar to North Korea could also pay strategic
dividends for the UN, which has for years tried to mediate national
reconciliation in Myanmar without any meaningful breakthroughs.

During Ban's most recent visit, his second to Myanmar as the UN's chief
envoy, Than Shwe dropped what some considered a symbolic bombshell.
According to the UN, the reclusive military leader told Ban during their
discussions that the next time the UN chief visited Myanmar, "I will be an
ordinary citizen, a lay person, and my colleagues will too because it will
be a civilian government."

Myanmar's generals plan to hold democratic elections next year after
nearly a half century of uninterrupted military rule. Myanmar ambassador
Swe told the UN on Monday that the country was "steadfastly proceeding on
its chosen path to democracy" and hinted that the regime might accept
international assistance in arranging the polls if deemed "necessary".
Several opposition groups, including Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy (NLD) party, may boycott the polls if their conditions for a
free and fair poll are not met, while exiled activists have slammed the
polls as a sham designed to perpetuate Than Shwe's and the military's rule
under a civilian guise.

But people familiar with Ban's recent closed-door meetings say the general
conjured up the prospect of a civilian government in the presence of his
military lieutenants who may still be split on the issue. The
septuagenarian leader, a former expert in psychological warfare, is
notorious for his mind games, making promises to the UN only to later
break them. But political fatigue, an under-appreciated concept in
conflict resolution, cannot be ruled out.

In neighboring Indonesia, nobody predicted its all-powerful military would
step aside constitutionally in favor of civilian rule after former
dictator Suharto's fall from grace in 1998. Military schisms and fatigue
were contributing factors in that democratic breakthrough. Myanmar lacks a
credible constitution, impartial institutions, and a vocal middle class to
press for democratic change, but like all decrepit regimes the end game
often comes about through a succession of policy mishaps.

Repressive record
Than Shwe has in recent years overseen state-sponsored killing of Buddhist
monks, the initial rejection of international emergency aid for over two
million cyclone victims, and now subjected Suu Kyi to a show trial few if
any in the international community believes has legal merit. The regime's
top general has ignored the world's pleas for her release and once again
bid to manipulate the UN in the process.

A UN official who requested anonymity out of protocol described Ban's
first two-hour meeting with Than Shwe as a mission to "speak truth to
power"; as unscripted, frank and "forceful back-and-forth" through an
interpreter. When the capricious dictator dismissed an idea out-of-hand,
the UN official recounted, he would reply with a curt "Yes, thank you."

The second meeting eventuated with the general's refusal to allow Ban to
visit Suu Kyi, and the UN's top envoy had to make do with meeting her NLD
party stalwarts. Ban's exclusive time with Than Shwe was notable as the
mercurial general has in the past rebuffed top UN envoys who visited the
country.

It's unclear if the two sides spoke about weapons proliferation or
Myanmar's nuclear designs. Upon his departure, Ban said Myanmar's generals
had missed an opportunity to work through the UN, but has yet to indicate
whether the UN would consider tabling a resolution against Myanmar similar
to the one passed against North Korea.

Prior to Ban's courtesy call, Than Shwe met with Singapore's former prime
minister Goh Chok Tong, who last month led an official delegation to
Myanmar. Singapore is a leading foreign investor in Myanmar, its
second-largest trade partner after Thailand and one of the first countries
to offer Cyclone Nargis assistance. A Singapore hospital has also provided
treatment to Than Shwe for an undisclosed medical condition.

A source who accompanied Goh during the four-day visit said Myanmar is at
a "tipping point" and that there's a genuine need and want for change
among the military and population. The Singapore source said that during
their meetings the army expressed "deep frustration" over its inability to
tame armed ethnic insurgent groups. At the upcoming elections, the
Singapore official estimated, the downtrodden population "would buy into
the rhetoric of the party that promises them the most peace".

History has shown that political breakthroughs often occur when least
expected. The UN and international community should recognize the growing
signs of political fatigue in Myanmar's stalemate, while at the same time
treat Than Shwe's overtures of democratic change through elections with
deep skepticism as long as Suu Kyi remains behind bars and her NLD is
excluded from any political transition.

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to attend the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum to be held
in Thailand later this month, and North Korea and Myanmar are expected to
dominate the security-oriented agenda. All eyes will be on China, which
has big investment interests in Myanmar and in the past protected its
military regime from UN censure, but may now frown on the generals'
weapons proliferation and alleged nuclear gambit with North Korea - both
clear threats to international peace and stability.

It is possible that the UN, ASEAN and its dialogue partners could, with
the backing of the US and China, move to close ranks and apply more
uniform pressure for change on the military regime. Than Shwe is arguably
running out of options and time-trusted allies and if China were to meet
the regime's brinksmanship with support for a new punitive UN resolution,
a new diplomatic dynamic would emerge where the UN might yet make a
difference in Myanmar.

Haseenah Koyakutty is a freelance Southeast Asia correspondent based in
Bangkok.