BurmaNet News, July 15, 2009

[Editor]

July 15, 2009, Issue #3754


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Families of prisoners don’t believe talk of amnesty
Mizzima News: Aung San Suu Kyi to meet legal team again
DVB: UN providing aid for landslide victims
Kaowao News: Burmese Army officer and soldiers desert, flee to Thailand

ON THE BORDER
AFP: Bangladesh police force Rohingyas from makeshift camp: MSF
Bangkok Post: One tonne of heroin seized in Tachilek

REGIONAL
BDNews.com (Bangladesh): UK turns to Dhaka for Suu Kyi's release

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: Junta is ‘playing a game’: PM in exile
Huffington Post: China mounts defense of Myanmar after junta pledges to
free some political prisoners
AP: US to push for change in Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Beijing’s Burma agenda – Aung Zaw




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 15, Irrawaddy
Families of prisoners don’t believe talk of amnesty – Law Weng

Families of political prisoners in Burma have little hope that their
family members will be released even after Burma told the United Nations
that political prisoners would be released before the 2010 election.

Win Maung, the father of the democracy activist leader, Pyone Cho, said,
“How I can trust what they say, because they never do what they say. If I
believe, I just hurt myself.”

A man holds a placard as he participates in a protest over the detention
of Aung San Suu Kyi outside the Burmese Embassy in London on June 19.
(Photo: Getty Images)
Pyone Cho received a 65-year sentence and is detained in Burma's southern
Kawthaung prison in Tenasserim Division.

Burma's UN ambassador, Than Swe, told the Security Council on Monday Burma
plans to grant amnesty to prisoners to enable them to take part in
national elections next year, at the request of UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon.

However, the ambassador did not mention the word "political" or say how
many prisoners would be released, or when, or whether it would include key
figures such as opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

According to human rights groups, the junta has more than 2,100 political
prisoners behind bars and many are serving long sentences. The number of
political prisoners has doubled since the crackdown on the monk-led
demonstrations in late 2007.

 “The regime never talks about releasing political prisoners. But it
sometimes includes a small number of political prisoners in an amnesty,"
said Tin Tin Win, the mother of democracy activist Ant Bwe Kyaw, who was
sentenced to 65 years for his role in the 88 Generation Student group.

"I don’t have much hope for my son," she said. Ant Bwe Kyaw is serving his
sentence at Katha prison in Sagaing Division.

Like other families, Daw Yay, the mother of Ashin Gambira, one of the
monks who led the 2007 demonstrations, said: “I think unless they release
many political prisoners, it might not include the leaders."

A commentary article in Burma’s state-run media recently claimed that
Burma has no political prisoners. "There are only prisoners who breach law
from threatened peace [sic] and create instable security in the country,"
the commentary said.

The article also said that Burma will conduct the election without freeing
Aung San Suu Kyi. The article appeared one day after UN Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon said Burma’s election will be unfair without releasing Suu
Kyi, who faces a five-year prison term if found guilty in an ongoing
trial.

The article said, “The country’s future is not based on only one person or
one party. It is nonsense by saying without Suu Kyi, election is not fair
[sic]. ”

Meanwhile, an 87-year-old member of Suu Kyi's party, the National League
for Democracy, has been sentenced to a two-year prison term for alleged
defamation.

Kyaw Khaing was sentenced on Monday by a court in Taungok in northwestern
Arakan State. He was sued by an expelled party member for comments he made
over fundraising for the party. Kyaw Khaing was given a seven-year prison
sentence in 2007 following the pro-democracy uprising, but was released 12
days later.

Some commentators in Rangoon believe that the junta may release some
prisoners prior to the upcoming Asean Regional Forum which will hold on
Friday in Phuket, Thailand.

____________________________________

July 15, Mizzima News
Aung San Suu Kyi to meet legal team again – Myint Maung

To tie up the loose ends and sew up the final argument on the trial of
Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, her defence counsels will be
meeting her on Friday July 17, in Rangoon’s notorious Insein prison, where
she is being detained.

Nyan Win, a member of Aung San Suu Kyi’s legal team and spokesperson for
her political party National League for Democracy on Wednesday told
Mizzima that they are negotiating with the authorities to allow more
meetings with their party leader.

“So far we have confirmed the meeting on Friday. But we are still
negotiating with the authorities,” he said.

Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been charged and put on
trial since mid-May, for violating her detention laws and ‘harboring’ an
American man, who secretly sneaked into her lakeside villa in early May.

The special court in Insein prison has fixed July 24 for the hearing of
the final arguments from both lawyers. The court is expected to come up
with a verdict after hearing the final argument.

Nyan Win said, the defence team has prepared a 20-page final argument and
will seek the approval of the accused, Aung San Suu Kyi.

“This is the second draft of the final argument. We will show it to Daw
Suu and if she finds it necessary to amend it, we will do so,” said Nyan
Win. But he refused to reveal the contents saying it will be an argument
rejecting the charges and to prove Aung San Suu Kyi’s innocence.

Should she be found guilty the Burmese democracy icon could face up to
five years in prison. She has spent more than 13 of the past 19 years in
detention, mostly under house arrest.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told reporters
in New York that the Burmese junta’s proposed general elections in 2010
will lack credibility unless the regime frees Aung San Suu Kyi and other
political prisoners.

Ban, who early this month paid a two-day visit to Burma, on Monday briefed
the UN Security Council saying he was ‘deeply disappointed’ over Burma’s
military supremo Snr. Gen Than Shwe’s refusal to allow him a meeting with
the detained opposition leader.

After Ban’s briefing, Burma’s Ambassador to the UN Than Swe said, the
Burmese government is preparing to announce amnesty for prisoners in order
to allow them to participate in the 2010 elections. He, however, did not
mention how many political prisoners would be released and whether they
would include Aung San Suu Kyi.

NLD leaders, however, said they are skeptical about the junta’s
declaration saying it could be another ploy to divert the attention of the
international community.

“We really do not hope for much from this announcement because even when
they released over 9,000 prisoners earlier, only about 30 political
prisoners were included. So, even this time, it might just be the same
thing,” they added.
____________________________________

July 15, Democratic Voice of Burma
UN providing aid for landslide victims

Various United Nations agencies have been providing aid to victims of the
landslide last week in northern Burma’s Kachin state that they say has
left 24 dead and around 1,300 affected.

Following torrential rain in the area, houses built on a jade mine dump
near Phakant town were swept away and widespread flooding occurred.

Initial reports said that around 30 people had died, while the Kachin News
Group (KNG) quoted government officials last weeks who cited around 100
fatalities caused by the landslide.

Both the World Food Programme (WFP) and the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
are providing aid to victims in the Phakant area, some of which is done
through cooperative partners on the ground.

“WFP [is] providing just under 16 tons of food aid for a one-month period,
and UNICEF [is] working with health authorities on the ground to ensure
that sufficient health services are provided,” said Antonio Massella,
deputy head of the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
(UNOCHA) in Burma.

He said that government authorities were working closely with aid
organizations, who “have a long-standing relationship with these
authorities
and that’s provided a good foundation for provision of
assistance”.

A statement released yesterday by the UNOCHA said that essential drugs
were also being provided to local hospitals and sites where people were
sheltering.

Those affected are being accomodated “in informal settlement sites, in
monasteries mainly”, said Massella, and the UN “has not seen any
widespread concerns in terms of illness”.

Concerns about subsequent illnesses stem largely from cyclone Nargis last
year, following which water-borne diseases such as cholera and dysentery
became endemic.

The area is known as Jade Land, famed for its lucrative jade mines and
ruby mines. Such accidents are relatively common during the rainy season –
around 20 people were killed in flash floods in the area last year.

According to the KNG, jade tycoons in the area have been distributing food
and water to those affected.
____________________________________

July 15, Kaowao News
Burmese Army officer and soldiers desert, flee to Thailand

Twelve soldiers including an officer of the Burmese Army’s Infantry
Battalion 32, temporarily based in 'Three Pagoda' town on the Thai-Burma
border deserted and fled to neighbouring Thailand. A broker in Three
Pagoda Pass on condition of anonymity said he helped them to reach a place
in Thailand and to get jobs.

The soldiers include Lieutenant Ko Ko Lwin, 2nd Warrant Officer Htay Lwin,
and 10 from other ranks. They did not want to mention the place they had
reached for security reasons.

The broker said "they have been in touch with me for a long time but I
didn't believe them. However I told them to come to a place on Thai soil.
When they arrived, our people brought them safely to the work place. We
did not take any money for transporting them because we sympathized with
them."

The soldiers left their battalion five days ago. They were sent as two
separate teams.

An officer from the New Mon State Party on condition of anonymity said
that his organization knew about the desertions but he refused to talk
about it because it did not concern his organization.

Lt. Ko Ko Lwin was a personal assistant to Lt. Col. Khin Zaw, the
commander of IB 32. Recently Lt Ko Ko Lwin quarreled with his battalion
commander about his motorcycle accident in 'Three Pagoda' town. The
deserters are from the battalion office on Bayintnaung hill in Three
Pagoda town.

To provide security to Three Pagoda town IB 32 was exchanged with IB 24 at
the end of March. It is learnt that IB 32 will replace the Light Infantry
Battalion 356 soon. Unlike other towns, there are no permanent battalions
in Three Pagoda town.

The Burmese military junta changes battalions every three months in Three
Pagoda town. In the border area, battalion commanders have plenty of
opportunities to make money under the table because the battalion
commander becomes an administrative officer of the town. The Township
Peace and Development Council has to follow the commander's order. Locals
say that the commander's word is law.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

July 15, Agence France Presse
Bangladesh police force Rohingyas from makeshift camp: MSF

Medical charity Doctors without Borders (MSF) on Wednesday condemned an
"aggressive and abusive" attempt by Bangladeshi police to forcibly
displace Rohingya refugees by destroying and looting their makeshift
homes.

"The systematic use of intimidation, violence and forcible displacement
against residents of the makeshift camp is absolutely unacceptable," MSF
said in a statement.

The charity said that its staff had witnessed the incident at the
makeshift Kutupalong camp in the southeastern district of Cox's Bazar,
where police and local officials destroyed 259 homes, "looting people?s
possessions in the process.

"This incident is another in a series of aggressive and abusive moves by
the authorities against the makeshift camp dwellers," it added.

Thirty police and local officials on Tuesday moved material from the
destroyed homes into a neighbouring UN refugee agency camp, according to
the charity.

They also warned residents of the camp that they had just 48 hours to
clear out before their homes were burnt down.

Thousands of people were already forced to move out in late June from the
Kutupalong camp, some through acts of violence, said MSF, which added that
it treated many women and children for injuries during this period.

"This vulnerable population has fled persecution and discrimination in
Myanmar, only to be left unrecognised and unassisted in Bangladesh," said
the group.

Buddhist-majority Myanmar denies the Bengali-speaking Rohingya Muslim
minority citizenship and property rights, leading to their abuse and
exploitation.

Some 28,000 Rohingyas live in two official refugee camps in southern
Bangladesh where the United Nations provides medical care.

The UN estimates up to 300,000 Rohingyas live outside the camps, many of
them blending in with the local community.

Bangladesh, which borders Myanmar, has not granted any Rohingyas refugee
status since 1992.

____________________________________

July 15, Bangkok Post
One tonne of heroin seized in Tachilek

A massive haul of drugs, including almost a tonne of heroin, seized near
Chiang Rai originated in Shan state, Burma, narcotics suppression officers
say.

The shipment was intercepted by Burmese drug suppression forces on Monday
in Tachilek, Burma, opposite the Chiang Rai border district of Mae Sai,
the Office of the Narcotics Control Board (ONCB) said.

The bust netted 950 kilos of high-grade heroin in 2,700 packs, and 340,000
methamphetamine pills which had come from Shan State.

But the authorities did not know who was behind the smuggling operation,
director-general of ONCB's Region 5 office Pornthep Aiemprapai said.

A source said the drugs were produced in a factory in the Burmese town of
Mong Hsat, south of Tachilek, which was controlled by key aides of the
late Shan drug lord Khun Sa.

The same source alleged the drug gang running the factory was led by a man
named Chen Papha.

About 376 million kyat (worth about 13 million baht at border exchange
rates) in cash was found in the alleged smugglers' truck, which was laden
with garlic to hide the drugs.

Another source said the drugs may have been destined for Laos via Thailand.

Heroin commands high prices on Europe's black markets, which could have
been the destination for the drugs, the ONCB said.

Six Burmese men, including the truck driver, were arrested by Burmese
authorities, Mr Pornthep said.

The truck was stopped by the drug-suppression force while it was driving
on the Mong Hsat-Tachilek Road heading for the Burmese-Thai border in
Tachilek, the ONCB said.

Burmese authorities alleged the driver tried to bribe them to secure his
freedom, but they turned down the offer.

The record seizure is being hailed as a great success by Burma, Mr
Pornthep said.

The operation highlighted Thailand and Burma's active cooperation in the
fight against drugs traffickers, he said.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 15, BDNews.com (Bangladesh)
UK turns to Dhaka for Suu Kyi's release

The UK has urged Bangladesh to join the international community in its
call for release of Myanmar's democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi and
restoration of her human rights.

Stephen Evans, the British high commissioner in Dhaka at a press
conference Wednesday, said the military junta in Myanmar would listen to
Bangladesh more than the UK and the European countries.

"As a country where democracy has recently been restored, we hope that
Bangladesh will be an advocate for human values and rights in other
countries and, for instance, join the international call for Aung San Suu
Kyi's release in Burma," Evans told reporters at a press conference at
Dhaka Reporters Unity auditorium marking his one year's stay here.

The envoy said Suu Kyi's imprisonment was "unfair and unjustified" and had
sparked "outrage" in the international community.

"Please, raise your voices in this international campaign to ensure her
human rights are respected and she is allowed to move freely," said Evans
for release of Nobel laureate Suu Kyi whose husband was a British
national.

He said the UK and other western countries wanted to see Suu Kyi to be free.

"I think the majority of the people in Bangladesh also want to see her free.

"You are a neighbour...Arguably they will listen to you more closely than
they will listen to the United Kingdom and other voices in Europe and in
North America and elsewhere.

"So, I think that what you say makes a difference," said Evans.

Foreign ministry officials in Dhaka have declined to comment on Evans's
request to Bangladesh as both foreign minister and foreign secretary were
in Egypt to attend the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement.

The foreign policy of Bangladesh, which maintains good relations with
reclusive Myanmar, is based on "non-interference" into others' internal
affairs.

Bangladesh considers Suu Kyi's imprisonment as an internal affair of
Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, which has been under ruthless military
dictatorship since 1960s.

"Calling for respect of human rights of Suu Kyi is no way interference,"
Evans told reporters replying to a question whether his request was
against Bangladesh's foreign policy.

The UK envoy said both Bangladesh and Myanmar were members of the UN and
must be committed to protecting human rights.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 15, Irrawaddy
Junta is ‘playing a game’: PM in exile – Lalit K Jha

Noting that the Burmese military junta is “playing a game” with the
international community as well as the United  Nations, “a frustrated and
disappointed” Dr Sein Win, the prime minister of the Burmese government in
exile, urged world leaders to send a “strong message” to the authoritarian
Burmese rulers on Wednesday.

“We have to send a strong message. The military is playing a game,” Sein
Win of the Washington-based National Coalition Government of the Union of
Burma told The Irrawaddy.

Dr Sein Win, the prime minister of the Burmese government in exile.
(Photo: VOA)
He said the junta is trying to mislead the international community by
giving assurances that they are going to reform and hold a free and fair
election. In reality, “they are doing nothing,” Sein Win said. “The UN and
other major countries must send a strong signal about this.”

Deeply disappointed with the recent turn of events, especially with the
visit by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon earlier this month, Sein Win
said nothing has changed for the people of Burma.

“They are going to sentence Aung San Suu Kyi. If things do not change,
there is no reason for opposing sanctions,” he said.

Sein Win said the assurance given by Snr-Gen Than Shwe that the 2010
elections would be free and fair should be taken with a pinch of salt. “It
is like a bad joke. The international community has to understand this,”
he said.

The prime minister in exile urged the international community not to
accept or recognize the 2010 elections.

“They have no meaning. Under the new constitution, elected people would
have no role and all the powers would be with the commander in chief,” he
said, adding that the people of Burma would not accept this willingly.

The 2010 elections are connected with a constitution which is being
imposed by the military, he said. Referring to the proposals Ban Ki-moon
made to Than Shwe during his visit, Sein Win said that his view, progress
would be most unlikely.

“It is quite frustrating. After so many years, people should know what is
what,” he said.
“The only thing that we are seeing is that there is no result, no progress.”

Countries such as the United States, Britain, Japan and India should come
forward to say that this is a meaningless constitution, he added.

Meanwhile, expressing disappointment over the Security Council meeting on
Burma, Aung Din of the US Campaign for Burma said this should be the end
of more than a 10-year mandate for the UN secretary-general’s good offices
in Burma, which he described as a total failure.

“We are disappointed that Ban not only ignores the requests made by the
NLD and ethnic nationalities to review and revise the constitution through
a tripartite dialogue, but also endorses the regime's sham election,
scheduled in 2010,” Aung Din told The Irrawaddy.

“Ban’s reluctance to call for the Security Council to take action on Burma
will surely make the people of Burma suffer more and more, and it will
help the regime to continue their crimes against humanity," he said.
____________________________________

July 15, Huffington Post
China mounts defense of Myanmar after junta pledges to free some political
prisoners – Evelyn Leopold

Beijing broke from its usual uncontroversial statements on Myanmar (Burma)
and told the West to stop "picking" on the ruling junta and stop treating
it with "arrogance and prejudice."

In a U.N. Security Council session on Myanmar, China's deputy U.N.
ambassador, Liu Zhenmin, made clear that Beijing, a major trading partner
of Burma, would not use its influence to bring about any major change in
the isolated southeast Asian nation.

The meeting on Monday was called so U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
could report on his July 3-4 trip to Myanmar, where he met with the
country's leaders, opposition figures and gave a public speech on
democracy and human rights. But Ban was unable to see Aung San Suu Kyi,
the opposition leader and Nobel laureate, under house arrest for 13 of the
last 19 years and now in prison on trumped up charges.

China's Liu said it was "totally understandable" that Ban was refused a
meeting with Suu Kyi because of "legal complications" and that this should
"not be used as a criterion" on the success of Ban's visit. Rather the
government should be treated "with less arrogance and prejudice."

"It would be unfair to turn a blind eye to the progress Myanmar has made
and instead always focus on picking at its government," he said.

The reason for China's criticism, which also emphasized non-interference
in the internal affairs of a country, was not immediately clear. Some
observers speculated that Beijing was warning Security Council members not
to bring up recent clashes between Muslim Uighurs and China's Han ethnic
majority that left at least 184 people dead.

Prisoners freed?

The U.N. ambassador of Myanmar, Than Swe, told the 15-nation Security
Council that his government was planning to release prisoners before the
country's elections next year. But he did not say how many of the more
than 2,000 political inmates would be freed.

Than Swe said his country was willing to implement "all appropriate
recommendations" of the secretary-general, who went to Burma in an effort
to get the ruling junta to release political prisoners, including Suu Kyi,
publish an election law and allow opposition groups to open offices
nationwide.

"At the request of the secretary-general, the Myanmar Government is
processing to grant amnesty to prisoners on humanitarian grounds and with
a view to enabling them to participate in the 2010 general elections,"
Than Swe said.

Ban reacted with caution to the offer: "This is encouraging but I will
have to continue to follow up how they will implement all the issues
raised during my visit to Myanmar," he told reporters.

The junta intends to organize multi-party elections for 2010. But the
military will have an automatic 25 percent of the seats in parliament,
control of key ministries and the right to suspend the constitution.

Fear of Suu Kyi?

However, a charter governing elections bans Myanmar nationals from
political office if they have foreign spouses or children with foreign
passports. The rule appears deliberately aimed at Suu Kyi, whose husband,
now dead, was British. The couple also had two sons.

Her National league for Democracy won a landslide election in 1990 but the
military refused to let it take office and has ruled the country since a
1962 coup. .

Suu Kyi, 64, and in fragile health, was jailed after John Yettaw, an
American , swam to her home, saying he had a vision that she would be
assassinated by terrorists. She had never met him but is accused of
violating terms of her house arrest.

There was no let up from many other Security Council members on Suu Kyi's
captivity, which France's U.N. ambassador, Jean-Maurice Ripert called
"intolerable and illegal." British envoy Philip Parham called for "robust"
action if there was an "unjust outcome" in Suu Kyi's trial.

Rosemary A. DiCarlo, a deputy U.S. ambassador agreed, saying the
"authorities are clearly not respecting that popular will by putting the
leader of the country's democratic opposition on trial for spurious
charges of violating a house arrest that was illegitimate to begin with."

"We are also troubled that the authorities continue to resist addressing
the grave human rights challenges facing the country. For example, recent
attacks by the Burmese Army and its proxies have forced more than 3,000
ethnic Karen to flee across the border into Thailand."

Some experts believe that engaging the government on humanitarian
assistance and other economic development projects might produce more
results than the Western-imposed sanctions, which China, backed by Russia,
would prevent from being adopted worldwide by the Security Council. Others
believe that unless factions within the military rebel, the junta will
keep its grip on the country for the foreseeable future.

(The military government changed the name of the country to Myanmar in
1989. The United Nations recognizes that name but the United States and
several other countries call the country Burma as does the Burmese
democracy movement.)

____________________________________

July 15, Associated Press
US to push for change in Myanmar

The United States is defending its efforts to push Myanmar to make
democratic changes even as the State Department continues a review of U.S.
policy toward the military-run country.

U.S. ambassador for Southeast Asian affairs Scot Marciel says that
Myanmar's mistreatment of detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has
slowed the U.S. policy review that has been going on since February.

But he told reporters Wednesday that that the United States still has
"diplomatic tools" it can use to push for change in Myanmar at next week's
meeting of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar
is a member of ASEAN and is expected to be a major topic of discussion at
the high-level meeting in Thailand. Marciel and Secretary of State Hillary
Rodham Clinton will attend the meeting.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 15, Irrawaddy
Beijing’s Burma agenda – Aung Zaw

Here’s a fact: Burma is an unstable neighbor and a headache for China
because of the constant troubles that arise in the military-ruled country
with which Beijing has forged a “fraternal relationship.”

So don’t be surprised if China begins to adjust its Burma policy. Chinese
leaders are reportedly unhappy with the endless negative press reports on
Burma which frequently mention China’s support.

The press coverage on the bizarre trial of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung
San Suu Kyi, Burma’s secret missions to Pyongyang and Burma’s unsettled
issue with ethnic insurgents along the Sino-Burmese border are all part of
 China’s concerns.

Of course, Beijing is not going to ask Burma to introduce democracy or
demand the release of Suu Kyi and all political prisoners.

These issues are, according to Beijing’s official stance, internal affairs
of Burma and the Burmese themselves should settle those issues. However,
China realizes that backing the recalcitrant regime can be costly.

Thus, we are already seeing a subtle policy shift by Beijing’s leaders.

When foreign ministers from Asean and the EU held a meeting in Hanoi in
May, Beijing joined the Burma-bashing ministers from Western countries and
did not shy away from criticizing the junta over the Suu Kyi trial.

Curiously, Beijing has been increasingly expanding its network to
establish contacts with dissident groups in exile. Chinese officials from
various government departments based in Yunnan Province, which borders
Burma, often come to Thailand to meet exiled Burmese groups, and the
frequency of visits has increased—in addition, China has recently did not
object to conferences and seminars discussing the Burma issues. This is
something the Chinese have learned from watching Burmese exiled-based
civil society groups operating in Thailand.

Recently, the National League for Democracy (NLD), Burma’s main opposition
party, sent letters to the Chinese embassy in Rangoon, a sign that the NLD
sees China as a potential positive influence.

The question arises: is Beijing looking for alternatives in Burma?

Let’s be frank: China isn’t interested in Burma becoming a democratic
nation. It isn’t voicing complaints about human rights issues; It wants to
see a strong and stable regime that can develop economic prosperity and
peace in the country.

At the same time, China may be in the process of hedging its bets on
Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s regime as the future of Burma.

A case in point: during Maung Aye’s visit to Beijing in June, the two
countries signed three documents that included an agreement on economic
and technical cooperation, a memorandum of agreement on development,
operation and transfer of hydropower projects in Maykha, Malikha and
upstream of the Irrawaddy-Myitsone river basin, and a memorandum of
understanding relating to development, operation and management of the
Burmese-China crude oil pipeline project.

It’s understandable that China wanted to sign these agreements before the
election in 2010.

The Burmese press hailed Maung Aye’s visit in the state-run newspapers,
claiming that China will protect Burma’s interests in the international
arena.

But there’s a trade-off for that protection, and Burma has opened itself
up to being influenced by Chinese ideas on how to achieve national
reconciliation.

One internal Burmese problem that China wants fixed is the regime’s
relationship to the restless ethnic groups along the Sino-Burmese border.

China appears to be supportive of an effort to create autonomous governing
regions for Burma’s ethnic minority groups, based on the Middle Kingdom’s
own experience with minority groups in China.

In April, the junta ordered all ethnic ceasefire armed group to transform
their armies into a border guard force, to operate under the Burmese army.
China was not impressed, according to reports. So far, the regime has not
forced the issue.

Almost all ceasefire groups, including the largest non-state armed group,
the United Wa State Army, have refused to take part.

Wa and Kachin ethnic leaders, who previously received political and
military backing from China, sent a letter in December 2008 to Chinese
President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. The letter outlined the ethnic
dilemma in Burma as it relates to the 2008 constitution.

In part, the letter said: “We solemnly ask the Chinese government to relay
our request to the Myanmar [Burma] government: first, we support the
constitutional reform. When the new government forms in 2010, the
leadership based on national public election should promise to leaders of
the autonomous states [that they] will be part of the high leadership of
the new government
 [and] build upon the method of management of China’s
autonomous region. ”

Clearly, China is subtly stepping in to Burmese internal affairs and
working to create a situation where its views could play a role to
determine an outcome beneficial to ethnic groups and China’s own
interests, while at the same time offering a viable alternative to the
junta’s ethnic policy which has lacked creativity.

“Clearly, Burma is an unreliable client for China,” wrote Chinese analyst
Wen Liao in a recent issue of Foreign Policy magazine.

If China is looking to change its tack on Burma, the author lamented, it's
not that China is concerned that such a government is morally suspect.
It's that Beijing worries that Burma's leaders are incompetent.

“And any slippage in that country's stability could have harsh
consequences for China's own fortunes,” she wrote.

It’s safe to say that China’s policy review on Burma is long overdue.
China has forged closer ties with its unstable neighbor for more than 20
years.

Now those ties are undergoing evaluation and adjustment because Beijing
has learned that whenever Burma draws fire, China gets burned.