BurmaNet News, July 16, 2009

[Editor]

July 16, 2009, Issue #3755


INSIDE BURMA
DVB: Landmine casualties in Burma double
Irrawaddy: Will Shwe Mann become Mr President?

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Constitutional crisis over the border guard force

BUSINESS/TRADE
AP: Foreign investment grows in Myanmar

REGIONAL
AP: India silent on Myanmar, eyes natural wealth
Bernama (Malaysia): UN asks Malaysia to play role In Myanmar's
democratisation

ASEAN
Mizzima News: Clinton on mission to further ASEAN ties, discuss Burma

OPINION / OTHER
DVB: Prisoner amnesties only offer false hope – Alex Ellgee
BBC News: Meeting Burma’s opposition
US Congress: Burma: Floor statement – Senator John McCain

PRESS RELEASE
MSF: Rohingya face a resurgence of abuse and displacement



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 16, Democratic Voice of Burma
Landmine casualties in Burma double - Francis Wade

The number of people killed by landmines in Burma has increased in the
last year while survivors face difficulties receiving adequate healthcare,
said an anti-landmine campaign group yesterday.

According to the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), the
number of victims with no access to healthcare is “substantial”.

Burma is one of only 17 countries that abstained from voting on a United
Nations resolution in 2005 to ban the use of landmine. Similarly, the
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has not acceded to the
Mine Ban Treaty.

The latest figures on landmine victims in Burma were collected by Landmine
Monitor in 2007, and show a 90 percent increase from 2006.

International monitoring bodies have also said that the use of civilians
as minesweepers, to walk in front of army patrols to prevent the unit
taking the blast from a landmine, is prevalent.

“It’s been reported for years that they’ve been using prison labourers to
walk ahead of the military,” said David Mathieson, Burma analyst at Human
Rights Watch.

“Civilians in conflict areas are used depending on the army unit.
[Minesweeping] is not a clear policy, it’s a practice, and so that depends
on the unit or the commander.”

Landmine victims, particularly from Karen state, which is littered with
mines laid both by the Burmese army and the opposition Karen National
Union, often cross the border into Thailand to receive treatment.

“Around 60 to 70 percent of the landmine victims we receive are
civilians,” said Dr Synthia Maung from the Mae Tao clinic in Thailand’s
border town of Mae Sot, adding that the figure “includes women and
children”.

According to Landmine Monitor, 47 people in Burma died in 2007 from
landmines, up from 20 the year before, although it warns that this figure
is not conclusive. More than half the states and divisions in Burma are
contaminated with landmines.

The only armed groups in Burma to have ratified the Mine Ban Treaty are
“very small groups who probably could not afford landmines”, said
Mathieson.

Non-governmental organizations such as Medicins Sans Frontier have
withdrawn from Burma partially as a result of restrictions imposed by the
government on access to landmine victims.

“I don’t really see that there have been any moves by the SPDC or the main
non-state armed groups to eradicate the use of landmines,” said Mathieson.

“Most of them are heavily dependent on the use of landmines and IEDs
[improvised explosive device].”

____________________________________

July 16, Irrawaddy
Will Shwe Mann become Mr President?

Snr-Gen Than Shwe has reportedly endorsed Burma's No 3 ranking general,
joint chief-of-staff Gen Thura Shwe Mann, to become Burma's new president.

The move came during a recent cabinet meeting in Naypyidaw, according to
sources.

"You are going to be president," Than Shwe reportedly told his subordinate.

According to sources close to the military elite, Shwe Mann, 61, will be
nominated by the representatives of the military in the future Senate and
House, to be formed after the planned 2010 elections.

The military will receive 25 percent of the seats at the village,
township, state, regional and district levels in the new governing body,
according to the 2008 Constitution. There will be three nominees for the
presidency—one from the military contingent, one from the Pyidaungsu
Hluttaw (Union Assembly or Senate) and one from the members of the Pyithu
Hluttaw (People's Assembly or House). The Senate and the House will then
vote to choose the president.

Shwe Mann, a protégé of Than Shwe, has a reputation of being down to earth
and a good listener, but he has yet to show his teeth with regard to a
broad range of social, economic and political issues. His vision of
Burma’s future is unknown.

Perhaps wisely, Shwe Mann has not shown any clear political or social
views since he is still under the influence of two senior generals:
Snr-Gen Than Shwe and Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye. In fact, Shwe Mann and his
wife are close to Than Shwe’s family on a personal basis, such as flying
together to Singapore for shopping trips, sources said.

"To deal with issues of national politics and the macro-economy, Shwe Mann
would not dare make any final decisions without Than Shwe and Maung Aye,"
a source said. "Recently, he was officially invited to visit China. But in
order to signify it was a very important visit, Napyidaw assigned No 2,
Maung Aye, instead of him to go there."

Recently, Shwe Mann was the subject of extensive news coverage which
focused on his secret mission to North Korea in November, which was leaked
to The Irrawaddy. Since then he has had a low profile in Burma’s official
press except for photo-opts of meeting with state guests such as UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Singapore senior minister Goh Chok Tong.

Meanwhile, Shwe Mann oversees regular meetings on political and security
affairs with high-ranking military officials in Rangoon and Naypyidaw.

According to the Constitution, one of the duties of the new president will
be to head the National Defense and Security Council, which has the power
to declare a state of emergency and nullify the Constitution.

Sources said that Shwe Mann will issue a state order that Than Shwe, Maung
Aye and the remaining members of the ruling junta all be named patrons or
advisers to the National Defense and Security Council after the 2010
election.

Speculation is rife that the junta leaders and their close associates are
deeply involved in preparations for the 2010 election and beyond.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

July 16, Irrawaddy
Constitutional crisis over the border guard force – Saw Yan Naing

After the Burmese regime ordered the ethnic ceasefire groups to serve as
border guard forces in recent months, the tension between the junta and
its ceasefire militia groups has been growing.

Many interpreted the ethnic ceasefire groups’ refusal to accept the
proposal as a rejection of the debatable constitution that was approved in
the so-called referendum held a few days after Cyclone Nargis struck Burma
in May 2008.

Clause 338 in chapter VII, “Defence Services,” of the new constitution
states that all the armed forces in the union shall be under the command
of the defense services. It also states that the defense services, known
as "Tatmadaw" in Burmese, is the main armed force for the defense of the
union.

The junta’s recent move to transform the troops of ceasefire groups into
border guard forces before the upcoming 2010 election is believed to be in
accordance with the constitutional provision that armed forces must be
under the command of the Tatmadaw.

Most ceasefire groups have disagreed with the order, preferring to
maintain their current military status.

The border guard force plan calls for each battalion of the border guard
force to consist of 326 soldiers including 18 officers. Thirty Burmese
staff officers with significant roles in the command structure will be
posted to each battalion.

Each battalion will have three major-ranked commanders. Of the three
majors per battalion, the major in charge of administration will be drawn
from the Burmese armed forces.

Each battalion would also have one general staff officer and one
quartermaster, both drawn from the Burmese army with the rank of captain.
Twenty-seven soldiers in the ranks, such as company sergeant majors,
sergeant clerks and nurses, would be drawn from Tatmadaw forces.

Burmese observers said that this would allow the Burmese regime to
monopolize the military wings of the ethnic ceasefire groups, giving them
greater control in managing border security after the general election in
2010.

So far only the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army has accepted and signed the
agreement with the Burmese regime to serve as a border guard force.

Seventeen insurgent groups have signed ceasefire agreements with the
ruling generals since 1989, according to official Burmese reports.

The most powerful ceasefire group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA),
totally rejected the order, while other ceasefire groups such as the
Kachin Independence Army, and the Mon New State Party, also disagreed.

They fear that they will fall under control of the Burmese army if they
transfer their troops into units of the border guard force.

In May, the leaders of the UWSA—which has some 20,000 troops—replied
personally to Burmese Military Affairs Security Chief Lt-Gen Ye Myint,
saying that they could not accept the order and that the UWSA would
maintain its current ceasefire status.

The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)—which controls about 4,000
troops—also disagreed with the order to form a border guard force under
joint-command with the Burmese army.

Speaking with The Irrawaddy in June, Lahkyen La Ja, the general-secretary
of the KIO said its armed wing, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), would
only take up a border guard role when there was political change in Burma.

The KIO told the Burmese government that the KIA would prefer to form a
state security force in Kachin State, northern Burma, instead.

Due to the disagreement, the Burmese regime is likely looking for
alternative options in their attempts to persuade the ceasefire groups to
accept the new constitution and subsequent 2010 elections.

After rejecting the order, the New Mon State Party leaders were asked by
Maj-Gen Thet Naing Win, the Southeast Regional Commander in Moulmein, on
June 7 to consider serving as a paramilitary group instead of being border
guards.

The Burmese regime has been asserting more pressure on the ceasefire
groups to transfer their troops to border guard force battalions, sending
Burmese officials to ceasefire groups to persuade them to join the
campaign. They have been unsuccessful so far.

Some analysts say the regime may have no option but to launch military
action against ceasefire groups that refuse to reassign their troops to
border guard force battalions. Others, however, are doubtful.

Htay Aung, a Burmese military analyst in exile, said, "The patience of
Burmese military commanders is wearing thin because of the stand taken by
ceasefire groups."

Meanwhile Rangoon-based ethnic leaders and Burmese politicians said the
draft constitution is biased, as it was written by delegations hand-picked
by the junta, and it lacked the participation of the ethnic leaders and
the parliamentary representatives elected in 1990.

Thawng Kho Thang, a senior member of the Rangoon-based United
Nationalities League for Democracy, said that the Burmese regime needed
more time for the Burmese citizens to learn about the 194-page
constitution. Numerous citizens are still unclear whether to support the
constitution or oppose it.

Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese analyst on the Sino-Burmese border, said the
Burmese military regime is unwilling to amend its constitution. However,
it is also not prepared to launch military activities against the
ceasefire groups that have disagreed with the order, he said

“This crisis regarding the constitution is not a minor one, especially as
without NLD involvement in the process, it will become more serious,” said
Aung Kyaw Zaw.

He also said that the Burmese junta might compromise with the ethnic
ceasefire groups over the border guard force order, as the ceasefire
groups also want to maintain their current ceasefire status.

If the Burmese regime compromises with the ceasefire groups over the
border guard force order, would this lead to a review of the constitution?

____________________________________
BUSINESS/TRADE

July 16, Associated Press
Foreign investment grows in Myanmar

Foreign investment in Myanmar swelled sixfold to almost $1 billion in the
last fiscal year, most of it coming from China, according to government
statistics seen Thursday.

A Ministry of National Planning and Development statistical survey showed
that foreign investment jumped to $984.9 million in the fiscal year that
ended in March 2009 from $172.7 million the previous year.

Neighboring China, with $855.9 million in the mining sector, accounted for
87% of total foreign investment. China signed an agreement with
resource-rich Myanmar for nickel production in 2008.

The U.S. and European Union have imposed economic sanctions on Myanmar in
recent years to pressure the military government to improve its human
rights record and to release detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu
Kyi.

Myanmar has attracted large investments in hydroelectric power, oil and
gas since liberalizing its investment code in late 1988.

Other investment projects during the most recent fiscal year came from
Russia and Vietnam with a combined $114 million in the oil and gas sector
and Thailand with $15 million in the hotel and tourism industry, the
report said.

There were no new investments in the manufacturing sector, fishing,
transport and power sectors, according to the report.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 15, Associated Press
India silent on Myanmar, eyes natural wealth – Elizabeth Roche

Amid the international outcry over the trial of Myanmar democracy icon
Aung San Suu Kyi, neighbouring India has been conspicuous in its silence.

Once a staunch and vocal Aung San Suu Kyi supporter, India began engaging
Myanmar's junta in the mid-1990s -- a shift that has seen security, energy
and strategic priorities override concerns over democracy and human
rights.

As well as needing Yangon's help to counter ethnic separatists operating
along their remote common border, India is eyeing oil and gas fields in
Myanmar and fears losing out to China in the race for strategic space in
Asia.

"India is following a nuanced approach which is the right policy on
Myanmar because New Delhi has to balance its larger strategic interests
with support for democracy and human rights," said former foreign
secretary Kanwal Sibal.
Western democracies don't see it that way.

Both the European Union and the United States have argued that India and
China share a moral imperative to use their economic leverage with Myanmar
to promote change in the country.

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton is expected to raise the issue again
when she visits India next week.

So far, New Delhi and Beijing have appeared unmoved by the pleas for
diplomatic intervention.

"India no longer comments on the internal affairs of other countries and
aims to maintain cordial relations so as to sustain economic engagement,"
said Marie Lall, associate Asia Programme fellow at London's Chatham House
think-tank.

In 1993, India gave Aung San Suu Kyi a humanitarian award created in
memory of its first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Since then it has
rolled out the red carpet for a roster of visiting Myanmar generals
including junta chief Than Shwe.

Besides cultivating political ties, New Delhi has made major investments
in large-scale energy and infrastructure projects, partly, analysts say,
to counter China's presence in Myanmar.

"India has always had concerns that China has been increasing its
political and diplomatic influence in its periphery," said Uday Bhaskar,
director of the New Delhi-based Maritime Foundation think-tank.

Both the Asian giants are particularly interested in Myanmar's oil and gas
reserves as they seek energy sources to fuel their economic growth.

Indian officials reject the argument that New Delhi's cooperation with
Myanmar – despite the military regime's human rights record -- has
tarnished its democratic credentials.

"The issue of human rights is a very convenient stick for the developed
world to beat developing countries with when it suits them," an Indian
government source told AFP.

"If you look at the human rights record of some developed nations, it is
hardly better than those who they criticise," he said, adding that India
had always pushed the issue of democratic reforms in "private" discussions
with Myanmar's leadership.

Chatham House's Lall also pointed to some apparent double standards,
noting that countries like the United States, Britain and France "have
dealings with military governments and dictatorships the world over - and
have had for decades".

"We deal with China -- a country which has a greater percentage of
political prisoners than Myanmar. In that sense India is not acting any
differently from the way western countries have been acting for decades,"
she said.

Lall also questioned the effectiveness of the sanctions championed by the
West.
"The international sanctions regime has not brought about change," she said.

"The Myanmar regime will not listen to anyone regarding its internal
affairs -- not even China. In fact isolation from the West is exactly what
suits this regime best."

____________________________________

July 16, Bernama (Malaysia)
UN asks Malaysia to play role In Myanmar's democratisation – Mokhtar Hussein

The United Nations (UN) has asked Malaysia and other Asean countries to
use their influence to help fellow member Myanmar resolve its internal
problems for it to return to democracy, Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk
Seri Najib Tun Razak said here.

He said the request was made by UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon at a
meeting they had on the sidelines of the 15th summit of the Non-Aligned
Movement (NAM) in this resort city.

Najib said Ban felt that there have been positive developments in Myanmar
whereby the country's leaders were seen to be receptive to the process of
democratisation.

"But Ban is still doubtful as to whether the Myanmar leadership will
actually take the country forward to become a democratic nation," he told
Malaysian journalists.

Ban visited Myanmar recently but failed to secure any assurance from the
country's leaders on the release of Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi who is under detention.

Besides Ban, Najib also held bilateral meetings with Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh and North Korean leader Kim Yong Nam.

On his meeting with Manmohan Singh, Najib said the Indian prime minister
invited Malaysian companies to participate in the project to construct
7,500km of roads in that country given their excellent performance in the
past.

He said Manmohan Singh said he might visit Malaysia next year and
expressed the hope that Najib would visit India.

On the meeting with Arroyo, Najib said Malaysia expressed its preparedness
to play a more active role in helping to find a solution to the peace
process in the southern Philippines.

He said the first thing to do would be to stop the conflict in the area
and then initiate talks.

Najib is scheduled to hold talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and
several other NAM heads of government on the final day today of the
summit.

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 16, Mizzima News
Clinton on mission to further ASEAN ties, discuss Burma

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is set to arrive in
Thailand early next week for a round of Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) meetings, where it is expected the situation inside Burma
will be discussed.

Briefing reporters in Washington on Wednesday, Deputy Assistant Secretary
for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Ambassador for ASEAN Affairs Scot
Marciel announced, "I expect that issues such as Burma will come up in
that meeting," in reference to the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference.

He added the ASEAN Regional Forum meeting is also "likely to cover a wide
range of issues, everything from climate change and disaster relief to
pandemic influenza to North Korea to Burma."

The trip underscores a shift from the policies of former United States
President George W. Bush to the current Obama administration. While the
former often stood accused of neglecting multilateral interests and,
specifically, not engaging enough with ASEAN, the latter is attempting to
rebuild and develop United States cooperation in the region.

"As you know from the Secretary’s travel to Jakarta in February, the
Administration is very focused on improving our relationship with ASEAN,"
remarked Marciel.

He additionally chose not to rule out the possibility that the United
States would sign ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation by the close of
the conference on Wednesday, confirming that the United States is actively
pursuing its interest in adding its name to the growing list of
signatories.

The Treaty has come under attack from some quarters for its enshrining of
ASEAN's principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member
states, a clause some perceive as serving to protect the continued rule of
Burma's military regime.

Clinton's trip comes as the United States continues to review the Burma
policy it inherited from the Bush administration, a review, initiated in
February, which is admittedly being hampered by ongoing developments
inside Burma.

"It’s been slowed, I guess I would say, because of the new developments,
specifically the Burmese arrest and prosecution of Aung San Suu Kyi, and
that ongoing trial is certainly factoring into our policy review,"
explained Marciel.

However, the Deputy Assistant refuted the notion that the United States
lacks any Burma policy at the present time, stipulating Washington
supports "the beginning of a dialogue between the government and the
opposition and the ethnic minority groups, release of political prisoners
and improved governance and, we would hope, more of an opening to the
international community."

There is reportedly no scheduled bilateral meeting between Clinton and her
Burmese counterpart in the cards, though they will likely both be present
at various functions.

Marciel additionally remained noncommittal when asked whether the
Secretary of State would raise Thai-Burma border issues while visiting
with officials in Bangkok prior to joining the ASEAN meetings.

Convening Friday the 17th and continuing through Wednesday, July 22nd,
Phuket, Thailand, will play host to the 42nd ASEAN Ministerial Meeting,
Post Ministerial Conference and 16th ASEAN Regional Forum.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 16, Democratic Voice of Burma
Prisoner amnesties only offer false hope – Alex Ellgee

As Burma’s UN ambassador finished his brief interjection to the Security
Council earlier this week, news headlines leapt on the pledge that Burma
was due to release political prisoners in lieu of the 2010 elections.

The news sent a glimmer of hope across the world that Burma’s ruling
generals had finally given in to international pressure. World leaders
have said that an amnesty for the country’s 2,100 political activists
currently behind bars is the only way to gain legitimacy before next year.
Had Ban Ki-moon’s quiet diplomacy really stirred the hard-line generals
into rethinking their old ways?

It is evident that the Burmese government fears the UN – Senior General
Than Shwe is notoriously fearful of being brought to the International
Criminal Court - yet it is unlikely that the junta leader would derail
even slightly from his ‘roadmap to democracy’.

Releasing political prisoners is too much of a threat to the government’s
planned election, which observers say is set to cement the continuation of
military rule in Burma. The dissidents that remain behind bars are
democracy fighters and leaders who could once again inspire the nation to
reject the government’s sham elections and take to the streets in revolt.

The government’s indifference to the suffering of its opposition is
palpable. Over 130 political prisoners in Burma urgently require medical
treatment. Denied access to doctors, many are in life threatening
conditions and forced to languish in prisons far from their families. It
was only last month that the 140th political prisoner died in prison as a
result of denied access to proper medical treatment. Salai Hla Moe was a
prominent National League for Democracy (NLD) member and sometime security
officer for Aung San Suu Kyi. His family was not informed about his death
until their end of month visit when they learnt that he had been denied a
traditional Christian burial.

Since November last year, 230 political prisoners have been transferred to
remote prisons, unable to receive necessary medical treatment from their
families. The objective is to silence them through both isolation, and
more worryingly, death. If the government is serious about allowing
prisoners to participate in the elections then these potential political
leaders need to receive proper medical treatment immediately.

Perhaps most tellingly, the ambassador did not use the phrase ‘political
prisoners’ during his speech. Burma has always denied that it holds
political prisoners, instead that its only detainees are common criminals.
Opposition groups and critics of the government are therefore dubious
about whether any political prisoners will be released. The NLD
spokesperson Nyan Win suggested that “the amnesty is not in response to
Ban Ki-moon’s suggestions” and is “irrelevant to what was recommended”.

If it does turn out that political prisoners are released it is equally
unclear as to what level they will be able to participate in the
elections, especially so given that the election laws are yet to be
announced. Free and fair elections require freedom to form political
parties, but “participation”, in the words of the ambassador, could merely
imply power to vote.

Over the last five years, four prisoner amnesties have released around
37,900 prisoners - only 120 of them have been political prisoners. The
latest, in February this year following a visit by UN human rights envoy
to Burma Tomas Ojea Quintana, saw the release of 6,313 prisoners, again
supposedly on “humanitarian grounds” so that prisoners could participate
in the 2010 elections. However, only 31 political prisoners were released,
most of whom were already coming to the end of their sentences.

Prisoner amnesties have always coincided with increasing international
pressure on the regime, and this time is no different. Ban Ki-moon
expressed “deep disappointment” with his trip to Burma earlier this month,
and suggestions have been made that China’s confidence in its neighbour is
waning. Fear of Security Council action, which would see Burma enduring
the same UN resolutions that North Korea has accumulated over the years,
may have caused it to attempt mild appeasement. Indeed, following his
statement, Than Swe told the meeting that “no Security Council action is
needed”.

If the current political stalemate in Burma endures, there is no chance
that Aung San Suu Kyi will be released in time for the 2010 elections. She
is the junta’s most feared political leader and they know that her freedom
could be the end of the constitution. Bo Kyi, joint secretary of the
Assistance Association for Political Prisoners-Burma, stated that “The
release of Aung San Suu Kyi would be the first step to show the world that
[the SPDC] is serious about releasing all political prisoners.”

History shows, however, that amnesties are nothing more than a currency
used by the generals to buy time and deflect international pressure. Yet
one lesson can be learned from this – it is in the Security Council that
Burma’s stubbornness starts to waver. The world should stop buying into
false promises, and instead hit them when they are vulnerable. But for the
time being, the longer the UN lets the generals play their mind games, the
more political leaders will be allowed to die in Burma’s prisons.
____________________________________

July 16, BBC News
Meeting Burma’s opposition

As the trial of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi continues in Burma,
a BBC correspondent assesses the mood of the country's opposition
movement.
For the safety of those we spoke to, we cannot reveal their names or that
of our correspondent.

To arrange an interview with the leader of the youth wing of Burma's
National League of Democracy (NLD) was difficult.

It had taken a week to meet him, complicated by the fact that phone calls
are routinely tapped and e-mails closely monitored by the military
authorities.
But at last we were told to go a secret location.

There we waited, concerned - as an hour ticked by - that he was not
coming, or perhaps had been arrested.

Finally there was a knock at the door. We shook hands and sat down together.
This was the man who could tell us if there were going to be any organised
protests against the widely expected conviction of jailed opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Election concerns

Ms Suu Kyi is on trial on charges of breaking the terms of her house arrest.
Burma's generals have detained her for 13 of the past 19 years, and she
has been held in the notorious Insein jail near Rangoon for almost two
months.
I asked the NLD activist why the government was delaying the conclusion of
Ms Suu Kyi's trial.

"They cannot let her be free before the elections," was the response.
Everyone I asked said the same.

The Burmese military has pledged to hold elections early next year - the
first since 1990, when the NLD won a landslide victory but the army
refused to let them take power.

And now the ruling generals still do not wish Ms Suu Kyi - whom locals
refer to with reverence as The Lady - to take part.

The opposition activist I was talking to was one of the leaders of
pro-democracy protests in 1988, which followed then ruler General Ne Win's
decision to suddenly devalue the currency, wiping out the savings of
thousands of Burmese people.

These protests were met with a violent crackdown, in which human rights
groups say at least 3,000 people were killed.

Soldiers sprayed automatic rifle fire into crowds of protesters, and other
demonstrators were carried away in trucks and never seen again.

The NLD man I met also played a leading role in the protests in 2007, when
a fuel price hike triggered anti-government demonstrations.

The protests spread from monks to students, and became an uprising - the
most significant challenge to Burma's generals in almost two decades.

But again there was a crackdown. At least 10 people were confirmed dead in
the military's response to the protests, and many thousands more -
including many monks - were reportedly arrested.

Amnesty International estimates that over 2,100 people are still in jail
as a result.

Fear of reprisals

The man I spoke was arrested after both protests, and has spent many years
in prison - but he's still not given up.

"We are trying to make a 1988 and 2007 revolution. We are preparing for
revolution," he said.

"But the people are scared of being shot by the army, and will not go out
on to the streets."

"When the people start their demonstrations, there will be shouting - so
people are scared and will not come out."

I asked him what his plans were, if Aung San Suu Kyi was found guilty.

"There will be a small protest outside the prison," he told me. "But we
will stay underground. We will keep working, but we cannot do anything."

"One day we will call for a hunger strike outside Insein prison and the
government will stop us, but we will keep on going...

"And we will also call for a hunger strike inside the prison. Even she
[Aung San Suu Kyi] may go on hunger strike."

Army support?

But Burma is a country with a population of 49 million people, where many
find it hard to feed their families, where those who rule do not seem to
care - so a hunger strike will not bring change.

I had expected to be told that there were plans for mass protests.

If the one group brave enough to go on the streets before was now afraid
of what could happen, was there any hope for a free and democratic Burma?

"If the Burmese were united, that would change everything," he told me.
"If the army's low ranks combined with the people, there would be change."

"But all the low ranks must join the people."

The government commands a combined armed force estimated to be nearly
400,000-strong.

And those in the military live a separate life from the people, so what
made this man think that they would be prepared to join a protest?

"I have heard from the low ranks, who see those with the rank of major and
above with nice cars and houses - they are unhappy. They want change.

"But whenever anyone speaks out or is thought to show dissent in the army,
they are arrested."

It seemed that there was little hope of change, but the man remained
optimistic:

"I believe that I will see Aung San Suu Kyi free before I die," he said.

He stopped and looked at his hands. Then he slowly nodded and for a moment
his eyes seemed to swell.

"I will sacrifice myself for the memory of my friends."

With that, he stood and left.

If Burmese people do take to the streets if Aung San Suu Kyi is found
guilty, the man I met might well be leading them.

Watch the full report from Burma on Newsnight on Thursday 16 July at
10.30BST on BBC Two.

____________________________________

July 15, US Congress
Burma: Floor statement – Senator John McCain

Mr. President, I would like to take a few moments to address the situation
in Burma.

Though it has faded from the headlines, the outrageous detention and trial
of Aung San Suu Kyi, that astonishingly courageous Burmese leader,
continues.  Ms. Suu Kyi, who has spent the majority of the past two
decades under house arrest, is being held at the notorious Insein Prison
compound.  She was charged with crimes following the arrival at her house
of an uninvited American man who swam across a nearby lake.  He then
reportedly stayed on her compound for two days, despite requests to leave.
 Based on this occurrence, the regime charged Ms. Suu Kyi with crimes and
ordered her to stand trial in late May.  Since then, she has been jailed
and awaits possible conviction and up to five years in prison.

Let us recall that this long-suffering woman is, in fact, the legitimately
elected leader of that country.  To this day, the generals refuse to
recognize the 1990 elections, in which the Ms. Suu Kyi’s National League
for Democracy was victorious.  Instead, they plan to proceed with
“elections,” to be held next year, that they evidently believe will
legitimize their illegitimate rule.  The ruling regime seeks ways to
ensure that Ms. Suu Kyi and other NLD members are not free to participate
in these elections, since it is the NLD – and not the military junta –
that has the support of the Burmese people.  As an estimated 2,100
political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, fill Burmese jails, the
international community should see this process for the sham that it
represents.

I once had the great honor of meeting Aung San Suu Kyi.  She is a woman of
astonishing courage and incredible resolve.  Her determination in the face
of tyranny inspires me, and every individual who holds democracy dear. 
Her resilience in the face of untold sufferings, her courage at the hands
of a cruel regime, and her composure despite years of oppression inspire
the world.  Burma's rulers fear Aung San Suu Kyi because of what she
represents - peace, freedom and justice for all Burmese people.  The thugs
who run Burma have tried to stifle her voice, but they will never
extinguish her moral courage.

Earlier this month, the United Nations Secretary-General traveled to Burma
in an attempt to press the regime on its human rights abuses.  The ruling
generals reacted in their typical fashion.  They stage managed Ban
Ki-moon’s visit, even refusing his request to speak before a gathering of
diplomats and humanitarian groups.  Instead, before leaving, he was forced
to speak at the regime’s drug elimination museum.  He was also refused a
meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi – Burmese officials stated that their
judicial regulations would not permit a meeting with an individual
currently on trial.  Following his visit to Burma, the Secretary-General
pointed out that allowing a meeting with Ms. Suu Kyi would have been an
important symbol of the government’s willingness to embark on the kind of
meaningful engagement essential to credible elections in 2010.  He’s
right, and the regime’s refusal is simply the latest sign that meaningful
engagement is not on its list of priorities.

It is incumbent on all those in the international community who care about
human rights to respond to the junta’s outrages.  The work of Aung San Suu
Kyi and the members of the National League for Democracy must be the
world’s work.  We must continue to press the junta until it is willing to
negotiate an irreversible transition to democratic rule.  The Burmese
people deserve no less.  This means renewing the sanctions that will
expire this year, and it means vigorous enforcement by our Treasury
Department of the targeted financial sanctions in place against regime
leaders.  And it means being perfectly clear that we stand on the side of
freedom for the Burmese people, and against those who seek to abridge it.

The message of solidarity with the Burmese people should come from all
quarters, and that includes their closest neighbors – the ASEAN countries.
 The United States, European countries, and others have condemned Ms. Suu
Kyi’s arrest and called for her immediate release.  The countries of
Southeast Asia should be at the forefront of this call.  ASEAN now has a
human rights charter, in which member countries have committed to protect
and promote human rights.  Now is the time to live up to that commitment,
and ASEAN could start by dispatching envoys to Rangoon in order to demand
the immediate, unconditional release of Aung San Suu Kyi.  Following the
visit of the UN Secretary-General, the Burmese representative to the UN
stated that the government is planning to grant amnesty to a number of
prisoners so that they may participate in the 2010 general elections. 
ASEAN states should demand the implementation of this pledge, to include
all political prisoners currently in jail – including Ms. Suu Kyi. 
Secretary of State Clinton will travel to Thailand later this month to
participate in the ASEAN Regional Forum, and I urge her to take this up
with her Southeast Asian colleagues.

Too many years have passed without the smallest improvement in Burma.  And
though the situation there is replete with frustration and worse, it is
not hopeless.  We know from history that tyranny will not forever endure,
and Burma will be no exception.  Aung San Suu Kyi, and all those Burmese
who have followed her lead in pressing for their own inalienable rights,
should know:  All free peoples stand with you and support you. The world
is watching not only your brave actions, but also those of the military
government, whose cruelty and incompetence know no bounds.  Burma’s future
will be one of peace and freedom, not violence and repression.  We, as
Americans, stand on the side of freedom, not fear; of peace, not violence;
and of the millions in Burma who aspire to a better life, not those who
would keep them isolated and oppressed.

The United States has a critical role to play, in Burma and throughout the
world, as the chief voice for the rights and integrity of all persons. 
Nothing can relieve us of the responsibility to stand up for those whose
human rights are in peril, nor of the knowledge that we stand for
something in this world greater than self-interest.  Should we need
inspiration to guide us, we need look no further than to that
astonishingly courageous leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.  The junta's latest
actions are, once again, a desperate attempt by a decaying regime to stall
freedom's inevitable progress, in Burma and across Asia.  They will fail
as surely as Aung San Suu Kyi's campaign for a free Burma will one day
succeed.

I yield the floor.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

July 16, Medecins San Frontieres
Rohingya face a resurgence of abuse and displacement

On Tuesday, July 14, Doctors Without Borders/Medecins Sans Frontieres
(MSF) witnessed a group of approximately 30 police officers and local
officials enter the Kutupalong makeshift camp in Cox’s Bazaar, Bangladesh,
and destroy 259 homes, looting people’s possessions in the process. Other
residents of the makeshift camp were told that they had 48 hours to leave
or their homes would be burned down.

The camp is home to thousands of unregistered Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic
minority originating from Myanmar, who are denied citizenship and suffer
persecution and discrimination in Myanmar.

The incident is another in a series of aggressive and abusive moves by the
authorities against the Rohingya. In late June, thousands of people were
forcibly displaced from their homes, some of them violently. During this
time, MSF treated numerous people for injuries in its clinic at the camp,
the majority of whom were women and children. MSF released a press release
on June 18. “The systematic use of intimidation, violence, and forcible
displacement against residents of the makeshift camp is absolutely
unacceptable,” said Paul Critchley, MSF head of mission in Bangladesh.

The Rohingya population at the Kutupalong camp have been told that they
cannot live next to the official refugee camp, supported by the Bangladesh
Government and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
Nor can they legally live on adjacent Forestry Department land.

“This vulnerable population has fled persecution and discrimination in
Myanmar, only to be left unrecognized and unassisted in Bangladesh,”
Critchley said. “They have gathered in Kutupalong, one of many unofficial
makeshift camps to have formed in recent years, to seek refuge and in turn
found only fear and abuse.”

Officials claim to be clearing areas of the makeshift camp in order to
create a 100-foot buffer zone between the official UNHCR refugee camp and
the makeshift camp. This zone has since expanded, threatening the living
space of thousands more people. Unable to move onto the adjacent Forestry
Department land, people are left with nowhere to live and nowhere to go.

A durable and dignified solution for the Rohingya must be found, not only
in countries where they seek asylum, but at their origin in Myanmar.

Over the last 20 years, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya have fled their
homes to seek refuge abroad. Few have been granted refugee status. The
majority struggle to survive, unrecognized and unassisted, in countries
such as Bangladesh and Thailand.

MSF has worked in Bangladesh since 1992, most recently setting up a basic
health care program in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, assisting victims of
Cyclone Aila, and implementing an emergency intervention to assist
unregistered Rohingya in Kutupalong makeshift camp.  MSF also provides
services to the host community.