BurmaNet News, August 6, 2009

[Editor]

August 6, 2009 Issue #3770

QUOTE OF THE DAY
"The international community has high expectations that the government of
Myanmar will act in Myanmar's interest by taking timely and positive steps
in follow up, after the specific proposals which I made to the senior
levels during my visit." - Ban Ki-Moon, United Nations Secretary General

INSIDE BURMA
Kachin News Group: Russia taking raw Uranium from Burma since 2007
Mizzima News: Lawyers meet Aung San Suu Kyi over her residential plot case
Irrawaddy: Security beefed up on University Ave
SHAN: Burma Army beheads woman

ON THE BORDER
DVB: More Karen refugees flee to Thailand

BUSINESS / TRADE
Xinhua: Myanmar claims to meet 30 percent edible oil demand by 2015

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Burmese migrants to hang for murder in Malaysia

INTERNATIONAL
AP: Key nations back release of Myanmar's Suu Kyi
AFP: US Senator Webb to make rare Myanmar visit

OPINION / OTHER
New York Times: Rethinking North Korea, with sticks – Nicholas D. Kristof
DVB: Is the Philippines a model for Burma’s future? – Alex Ellgee
The Australian: Burma's deadly course - Greg Sheridan







____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 6, Kachin News Group
Russia taking raw Uranium from Burma since 2007

A Russian firm has been taking raw Uranium from Hpakant areas in Burma's
northern Kachin State since 2007, said reliable local sources.

Victorious Glory International Private Ltd. of Russia is taking the raw
Uranium from the company's Uranium mines in Tarmakhan, Hongpa near Katai
Taung, under tight security provided by the ruling junta, said
eyewitnesses.

A local eyewitness told KNG today, the company's mining areas are fenced
off with opaque covers and the Uranium is mined inside the mountain with
sophisticated digging machines.

The raw Uranium is specially packed in sacks, which look like cement
sacks. It is then transported to Hopin railway station in large trucks. 
Then the Uranium is transported to Rangoon sea port by trains for delivery
to Russia, said sources close to the company and eyewitnesses.

According to eyewitnesses in Hpakant, the company has been excavating the
raw Uranium from these areas since 2007.

The company signed an agreement with the ruling junta in Naypyitaw on
February 15, 2007 for exploration of gold and associated minerals along
Uru Hka River (or Uru Hka in Kachin) between Hpakant in Kachin State and
Homalin in Sagaing Division.

One year before the two sides reached an agreement, Russian Uranium
explorers arrived in the area, said residents of Hpakant. The movements of
Russian miners are specially secured in the mines and outside by security
forces of the junta, said residents of Hpakant.

The junta is constructing a nuclear plant in caves after tunneling into a
mountain in Naung Laing in northern Burma, some 600 kilometres north of
Rangoon. Five North Koreans worked there, according to South Korean media
reports. A nuclear reactor from which plutonium can be extracted is also
allegedly being built.

Two defectors from the Burmese Army testified recently that the junta has
a secret nuclear weapons programme, which is being supported by North
Korea and Russia.
____________________________________

August 6, Mizzima News
Lawyers meet Aung San Suu Kyi over her residential plot case – Phanida

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi met her four legal counsels today afternoon to
discuss the case relating to the sale of a part of her residential plot.

Her lawyers Kyin Win, Nyan Win, Hla Myo Myint and Khin Htay Kywe discussed
the case with her in Insein prison for over two and-a-half hours. Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi explained to her lawyers the background of the case and the
ownership of the residential plot.

“We mainly discussed the case over her residential plot. In brief, Daw Suu
said that her younger brother had no right to sell the plot. He cannot
sell this part of the plot on his own or on her behalf, which is in the
physical possession of Daw Suu. She said that she would take necessary
action in consultation with her lawyers if such a situation arises,” her
lawyer Nyan Win told Mizzima.

“We sent an objection letter ‘as per instruction given by client’ on July
30 to two higher grade pleaders, Cho The May and Wai Wai Aung, which says
the sale of the plot is unlawful. But we have not yet received any reply
from the two women lawyers”, Nyan Win said.

In the classified advertisement column in ‘The Mirror’ on July 24, a
notice appeared which said some parts of a plot situated on No. 54,
University Avenue had been sold and anyone can object to the sale within 
a week.

The notice said their client Khin Maung Aye had sold the undivided part
measuring (100’x70’) of Bahan Township, Plot No. 40 A, 41, 42 A, 44 B, 44
C and 64 C and anyone can send his/her objection to them within seven
days.

Khin Maung Aye is the adopted son of late Thakin Than Tun and Daw Khin
Gyi, who was a retired army officer and writer. Daw Aung Suu Kyi’s mother
Daw Khin Kyi and Daw Khin Gyi were sisters.

In the year 2000, her elder brother Aung San Oo filed a suit for taking
possession of this plot from her.

Meanwhile the co-accused in her case, the American Mr. John William
Yettaw, collapsed and fell in Insein prison on July 4.  He was admitted to
Rangoon General Hospital but now he has improved, a person close to his
lawyer Khin Maung Oo said.

It is learnt that the junta will hold a press conference at Hanthawady
Narcotic Drug Museum tomorrow at 2 p.m., where a briefing on Mr. Yettaw
will take place.
____________________________________

August 6, Irrawaddy
Security beefed up on University Ave – Wai Moe

The Burmese military authorities on Thursday began beefing up security
around the lakeside home of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, sources
in Rangoon said.

“This morning, security personnel surrounded Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s
house,” said a journalist in Rangoon who spoke on condition of anonymity.

University Avenue—where the Nobel Peace Prize laureate’s house stands—was
open to traffic on Thursday morning, the sources said, but riot police
blocked the road in the afternoon.

“At about 2 pm, the police stopped all motorists from driving down
University Avenue. We had to divert to other roads,” a taxi driver in the
city said.

Security forces were withdrawn from University Avenue in May after Suu Kyi
was taken to Insein Prison to face trial for allegedly harboring American
intruder John W Yettaw.

Thursday’s activity around University Avenue has fueled speculation that
preparations are under way to bring the pro-democracy leader back safely
to her home after the trial, the verdict on which is due on August 11.

Commenting on the security surrounding Suu Kyi’s house, her lawyer Kyi Win
said, “In Burma, everything happens in unexpected ways.”

Meanwhile, reporters in the former capital have been notified of a press
conference at the Narcotics Museum in Rangoon at 2 p.m. On Friday. The
subject of the press conference is expected to be related to Suu Kyi,
journalists said.

Suu Kyi’s lawyers, Kyi Win and Nyan Win, were allowed to meet with their
client at Insein Prison on Thursday afternoon.
____________________________________

August 6, Shan Herald Agency for News
Burma Army beheads woman – Hseng Khio Fah

A local woman in Mongkeung Township, southern Shan State was beheaded by
the Burma Army troops  that have been launching a four-cut campaign since
27 July , according to villagers who recently fled to Thailand.

In the morning of  3 August, Nang Hsoi, 29, from Wan Kart village, Ho Khai
village tract was arrested in her village by soldiers from Mongkeung based
Light Infantry Battalion (LIB)#514 after falsely accusing her as the  wife
of a Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’ fighter and collaboration with the SSA,
said a local villager who asked not to be named.
“In the evening they [soldiers] took her to a bridge nearby the village,
cut her head down and threw it into the creek,” he said.

Two days before her death, over 10 villagers from Wan Kart, Wan Kawng and
Wan Long village were detained on suspicion of being SSA spies at the army
base.

The Burma Army that has been the four-cut campaign (cutting food, funds,
intelligence and recruits to the armed resistance by local populace) had
ordered villagers in Mongkeung, Kehsi and Laikha townships to leave their
homes within 5 days, from 1 to 5 August.

Since then, at least 300 houses in the three townships were razed to the
ground and more than 300 villagers were forcibly relocated to the town,
said a source.

The campaign drive was led by the Mongnawng – based Military Operations
Command (MOC) #2 command: Loilem based IB#9, and #12, Laikha based IB#64
and LIB#515, Namzang based IB#66 , #247 and LIB#516, Mongnai based IB#248
and LIB#518, Panglong based LIB#513, Mongkeung based LIB#514 and Mongpawn
based LIB#517.

To date, 21 villages from Panghsang village tract and 9 villages from Wan
Htee village tract in Laikha township alone were forced to resettle in
Marklang quarter of the town.

During the drive some were beaten and some were reportedly killed, forcing
many others to hide in the jungle, said another villager who is seeking
asylum on the Thai-Burma border.

“There were some people who are hiding in the jungle preparing to seek
refuge in Thailand,” she said, “Many people will be coming soon.”

Currently, about 10 people are seeking asylum in areas near Thailand.

During the last engagement on 15 July, the Burma Army’s LIB 515 suffered
11 killed, 1 captured and 5 assorted weapons lost.

During the 1996-98 campaign against the SSA, 1,500 villages were destroyed
and more than 300,000 in southern and eastern Shan State were forcibly
relocated, a third of which had escaped into Thailand.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

August 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
More Karen refugees flee to Thailand – Naw Noreen

Around 200 Karen refugees have fled across the border to Thailand’s
refugee camps in recent weeks with many reporting continued forced
recruitment into the Burmese army and militias.

According to a refugee who recently arrived in Thailand’s Nu Poh camp,
villagers were given the choice of either paying 150,000 kyat ($US150) or
joining the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) militia, who have been
fighting alongside Burmese troops.

“We have been already struggling for food and we can’t afford to pay
them,” said the refugee. “And we couldn’t go out to work for food as there
are landmines surrounding our villages.”

A spokesperson from the Committee for Internally Displaced Karen People
(CIDKP) said that 200 more refugees have recently arrived at three camps
located in Thailand’s Tha Song Yang district, in Tak province.

“Some said there was forced recruitment and labouring as well as extortion
of money [from the villagers],” he said.

Some of the newly arrived refugees said the DKBA’s Battalion 999 has been
recruiting villagers in Karen state’s Nabu township, citing security for
the villages as the reason.

An official from Battalion 999 said that new recruits are essential,
although it is done on a voluntary basis.

“During the 15-year-long standing of our group, we have had our people
injured or dying, and in order to replace those soldiers, we have to find
new recruits,” he said. “We are not forcing them to join; we are only
asking for their help, for their own people.”

“Since we are short on troop numbers, they can help us fight for at least
three years
and then they can resign if they are not happy with us.

“Those who have money can pay us to hire mercenaries but we are not
collecting money from anyone as we have our orders not to.”

Many of the refugees who have entered Thailand had fled from the Ler Per
Har camp for internally displaced people in eastern Karen state, which
became a focal point of the fighting and has now been overrun by the DKBA.

Last month the Bangkok-based Thailand Burma Border Consortium (TBBC) said
that while fighting had eased, reports of the forced labour, portering and
exortion of money, food and livestock from villagers by the DKBA
continued.

Reports have surfaced today that the DKBA is preparing to attack the KNU
Brigade 6 base, following their loss of the strategically important
Brigade 7 base in June.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

August 6, Xinhua
Myanmar claims to meet 30 percent edible oil demand by 2015

Myanmar has claimed that it could fulfill 30 percent of the country's
edible oil demand by 2015 as 81,000 hectares of oil palm plantations are
already in place, the local Yangon Times reported Thursday.

According to edible oil producers, palm oil produced from over 20,250
hectares in the fiscal year 2006-07 fulfilled 7.5 percent of the country's
demand.

Myanmar has to import edible oil annually from Malaysia and the imported
tonnage increased from 40,000 tons in 2007 to 246,000 tons in 2008-09.

Meanwhile, Myanmar is seeking expertise from Malaysia and Indonesia for
boosting palm oil production.

Myanmar has focused on growing oil palm in the country's southern
Tanintharyi division with 35 private companies targeting to grow 202,500
hectares of the crop there in a bid to meet local edible oil demand and
reduce import, according to oil dealers.

So far, over 100,000 hectares have been put to grow the crop in the
region, reports said.

Myanmar has also been placing emphasis on growing edible oil crops,
outlining three major items of crops -- groundnut, sesame and sunflower to
be grown in the three divisions of Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway.

Magway division was once an oil pot at a time when the country has a few
millions of population. However, as the population increased, palm oil has
to be imported from abroad.

Official statistics show that with its annual per capital edible oil
consumption standing at 10 kilograms, Myanmar needs over 570,000 tons of
edible oil annually for its current 57.37- million population.

The figures also indicate that Myanmar imported 298 million U.S. dollars'
vegetable oil and other hydrogenated oil in the fiscal year of 2008-09
which ended in March, up from 192 million dollars in the previous year.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

August 6, Irrawaddy
Burmese migrants to hang for murder in Malaysia

A Malaysian court on Thursday sentenced six Burmese immigrants to death
for murdering a man in a gang fight, a lawyer said.

The Kuala Lumpur High Court found the men guilty of using a machete and a
screwdriver to kill 21-year-old laborer Sadib Husin on June 26, 2005, said
attorney AS Dhaliwal, who represents three of the accused.

The men had pleaded innocent, saying they were present during the street
clash between rival Burmese gangs but were not involved in killing Sadib,
Dhaliwal said.

Prosecution witnesses, including Husin's brother, who was at the scene,
testified that they saw the six men assaulting Husin.

The six will appeal, Dhaliwal said.

Malaysia has a mandatory death penalty for various offenses including
murder, drug trafficking or crimes using firearms.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 6, Associated Press
Key nations back release of Myanmar's Suu Kyi – Edith M. Lederer

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon won support Wednesday from key nations for
his appeal to Myanmar's government to free detained opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi and release all political prisoners — and he said he expects a
positive response from the country's military rulers.

The U.N. chief told reporters after chairing a closed-door meeting of the
Group of Friends on Myanmar that he was pleased at their support which he
said confirmed the international community's desire for Myanmar to respond
positively "to our concerns, expectations and encouragements."

The Group of Friends includes about 15 countries — Myanmar's neighbors,
interested Asian and European nations, and the five permanent U.N.
Security Council members, the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France.

Ban said he told the group that he reiterated to Myanmar's U.N. ambassador
on July 31 his expectation and that of the international community that
careful consideration be given to the implications of the verdict in Suu
Kyi's trial, which could come on Aug. 11, and to "use this opportunity to
exercise its responsibility to ensure her immediate release."

Suu Kyi is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest when an
American intruder swam across a lake and spent two nights at her home in
early May. She faces up to five years in prison and is widely expected to
be convicted. She has been in detention for 14 of the last 20 years, since
leading a pro-democracy uprising that was crushed by Myanmar's military
junta.

The secretary-general, who visited Myanmar in July, said he also
reiterated the international community's "high expectations" that the
government act by taking timely steps to follow-up on the specific
proposals he made to senior leaders "starting with the release (of) all
political prisoners so that they could participate in a credible and
inclusive political process."

"I expect that the authorities of Myanmar will respond positively and in a
timely manner to the expectations and concerns and repeated calls of the
international community to release all political prisoners, and
particularly Daw Aung San Suu Kyi," Ban said.

During his visit, the secretary-general tried unsuccessfully to meet Suu
Kyi but he said what was more important was the message he left with the
country's leaders.

Soon after Ban returned to New York, Myanmar's U.N. Ambassador U Than Swe
promised the Security Council that the government will free some political
prisoners and allow them to participate in 2010 elections, but he gave no
numbers.

The secretary-general said he had no firm indication either. "I hope they
will take necessary measures to implement their commitment," he said.

When a reporter noted that he appeared more optimistic about a positive
response from the government than he was last week, Ban said: "I am
working very hard to, first of all, mobilize the necessary political
support for the democratization of Myanmar."

"I am representing the will and expectations of the whole international
community, particularly the members of the Group (of Friends) of Myanmar
to convey (this message) correctly to the Myanmar authorities so that they
can respond positively," he said. "This is what I am expecting."

He said participants at the meeting agreed that the Group of Friends would
meet again on the sidelines of the ministerial meeting of the U.N. General
Assembly which begins Sept. 23.
____________________________________

August 6, Agence France Presse
US Senator Webb to make rare Myanmar visit

Democratic US Senator Jim Webb will travel to Myanmar over the next two
weeks, becoming the first US lawmaker to visit the country in more than 10
years, his office announced on Thursday.

Webb -- a Vietnam war veteran who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations
subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific affairs -- leaves Sunday and will
also visit Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia over a two-week span.

The Virginia lawmaker, whose precise itinerary was not disclosed, aims "to
explore opportunities to advance US interests in Burma and the region,"
his office said in a statement. The United States refers to Myanmar as
Burma.

At his stops outside Myanmar, Webb will meet with "government
representatives and industry leaders," his office said in a statement.

Webb's panel oversees US relations with countries in East Asia, Southeast
Asia, the Pacific Rim, and Oceana as well as with organizations like the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

Webb served as a Marine in the Vietnam war and later served as assistant
secretary of defense and secretary of the navy.

On July 15, he held a hearing on July 15 to discuss China's role in Asian
maritime territorial disputes, saying he understood the need to stay out
of Asia's sometimes emotionally charged territorial disputes but worried
that the lack of US position may embolden China.

"We don't discuss it enough here in the United States -- we are the only
guarantor there to provide a credible umbrella under which those other
countries in the region can successfully grow their economies without
intimidation," said Webb.

Webb also openly worried that China was quickly closing the gap with the
United States in seapower.

Webb said that if the US is to remain a Pacific power, leaders must choose
to make the navy a priority.

"The United States should maintain the quality and strength of its
seapower -- if not improve it," he said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 6, New York Times
Rethinking North Korea, with sticks – Nicholas D. Kristof

Now that President Bill Clinton has extricated Laura Ling and Euna Lee
from North Korea, the hard work begins.

There are new indications that North Korea may be transferring nuclear
weapons technology to Myanmar, the dictatorship also known as Burma, and
that it earlier supplied a reactor to Syria. For many years, based on five
visits to North Korea and its border areas, I’ve argued for an
“engagement” approach toward Pyongyang, but now I’ve reluctantly concluded
that we need more sticks.

Burmese defectors have provided detailed accounts of a North Korean
reactor, perhaps a mirror of the one provided to Syria, built inside a
mountain deep in Myanmar. The reports, first aired in The Sydney Morning
Herald this month, come from Desmond Ball, a respected Asia scholar, and
Phil Thornton, a journalist with expertise on Myanmar, and there has been
other fragmentary intelligence to back them up.

If the defectors’ accounts are true, the reactor “could be capable of
being operational and producing a bomb a year, every year, after 2014,”
Mr. Ball and Mr. Thornton wrote.

The suspicions may be false, and Iraq is a reminder that defector reports
about W.M.D. can be wrong. But partly because the North Korean reactor in
Syria (destroyed by Israeli bombing in 2007) caught intelligence agencies
by surprise, everyone is taking the latest reports seriously. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton expressed concern about the transfer of nuclear
technology from North Korea to Myanmar, without giving details.

All this was eerily foreshadowed by the North Koreans themselves. Michael
Green, who ran Asian affairs for a time in the Bush White House, says that
in March 2003, a North Korean official — with hands shaking — read out to
him and other American officials a warning: We have a nuclear deterrent.
If you don’t end your hostile policy, we will demonstrate, expand and
transfer it.

“They’ve done all those things,” Mr. Green notes.

At times in the past, there seemed hope for diplomacy aimed at coaxing
North Korea into giving up its nuclear program and joining the concert of
nations. These days that seems virtually hopeless.

“Formal diplomatic engagement aimed at rolling back their nuclear program
has run its course, at least for the time being,” says Mitchell Reiss, a
North Korea expert and former senior State Department official who is now
at the College of William and Mary. “The facts have changed. You have to
change your strategy.”

In the past, Mr. Reiss focused on engagement. Now he advocates “hard
containment” — toughened sanctions backed by military force if necessary.

The truth is that North Korea doesn’t want to negotiate away its nuclear
materials. It is focused on its own transition, and this year it has
declined to accept a visit from the Obama administration’s special envoy,
Stephen Bosworth. The North isn’t interested in “six-party talks” on
nuclear issues; instead, it seeks talks with the U.S. conditioned on
accepting North Korea’s status as a nuclear power — which is unacceptable.

In recent months, North Korea has dismantled some economic reforms and
economic cooperation projects with South Korea. Meanwhile, it continues to
counterfeit U.S. $100 bills — the highest-quality goods that North Korea
manufactures — and its embassies in Pakistan and other countries pay their
way by smuggling drugs, liquor and currency. The North has released its
American hostages but continues to hold South Koreans. And it’s the most
totalitarian state in history: In North Korean homes, I’ve seen the
“speaker” on the wall that wakes people up with propaganda each morning.
More bizarre, triplets are routinely taken from parents and raised by the
state because they are considered auspicious.

There are no good options here, and a grass-roots revolution is almost
impossible. North Koreans, even those in China who despise the regime,
overwhelmingly agree that most ordinary North Koreans swallow the
propaganda. Indeed, Kim Jong-il’s approval rating in his country may well
be higher than President Obama’s is in the United States.

Our best bet will be to continue to support negotiations, including a back
channel that can focus on substance instead of protocol, as well as
economic and cultural exchanges — but backed up by sticks. The Obama
administration is now working with allies to reimpose economic and
financial sanctions that a few years ago were very successful in squeezing
the North Korean regime. China is surprisingly cooperative, even quietly
intercepting several shipments of supplies useful for W.M.D. programs.

Where we have intelligence that North Korean ships are transferring
nuclear materials or technology to a country like Myanmar or Iran, we
should go further and board those vessels. That’s an extreme step, but the
nightmare would be if Iran simply decided to save time and buy a nuclear
weapon or two from North Korea. We can’t allow that to happen.

____________________________________

August 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Is the Philippines a model for Burma’s future? – Alex Ellgee

Philippines has long been cited as a model for Burma’s democratic
transition, and this was reiterated last week during talks between
Philippine head of state Gloria Arroyo and US president Barack Obama.

Last week, Obama announced that Arroyo would act as a “coordinating
country” between the US and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), of which Burma is the political thorn in the side. As the leader
of a transitional and multi-ethnic country, her new role could be a reason
for hope among the Burmese democracy movement.

She told Obama how officials from her government had urged the Burmese
junta to study the transition of the Philippines in the 1980’s from a
dictatorship to democracy, a paradigm which she said could work for Burma.
The only way for the Burmese government to prove their legitimacy would be
to hold elections “in which Aung San Suu Kyi and her party are able to
participate fully", she added. But is the Philippines really a paradigm
that Burma can, and should, adopt?

The Philippines’ transition from dictatorship to democracy did not come
about from international condemnation and sanctions, the method that is
being heaped on Burma; it was a direct result of people power and
defection.

An originally popular president, Ferdinand Marcos lost the faith of the
people when opposition leader Benigno S Aquino was assassinated in 1983.
Having spent eight years in prison for his opposition to the dictator,
Aquino was released and sent to America for a critical heart bypass. Like
a scene from Burma’s Depayin massacre in 2003, on his return the popular
reformist was shot dead in Manila airport.

The assassination triggered outrage across the Philippines, particularly
so given that not one person has ever been charged for his murder. The
Filipinos demanded an election, and one million people voted for Aquino’s
wife, Corazon Aquino, to stand against Marcos.

The elections that followed are a prime example of what happens when power
hungry dictators meddle with democracy. As is expected with the Burmese
government’s elections next year, Marcos’ thugs toured the country buying
votes and terrorising citizens into re-electing the dictator.

The parallels between the Philippines and Burma continue. In a move
reminiscent of the Burmese government’s theft of the opposition National
League for Democracy’s election victory in 1990, Marcos claimed that he
had won the elections. The cheating was so bad that the Catholic Bishops
Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) described the election as
"unparalleled in its fraudulence". The Soviet Union was the only country
to congratulate Marcos on his election win. Rejecting his claim of renewed
presidency, two major figures defected from the regime and led the people
to topple the dictatorship. Enrile, the Minister of Defense, and Fidel
Ramos, Vice Chief of Staff, declared their support for Aquino and staged a
coup d’etat.

Perhaps a similar defection during Burma’s 2007 Saffron Revolution, or at
the beginning of the Aung San Suu Kyi trial, could have led the people of
Burma to achieve democracy. However, as many Burmese are aware, the
chances of any general departing from the luxuries of the ruling State
Peace and Development Council and declaring their support for Suu Kyi are
very slim. Although many respect her, the benefits of being in Than Shwe’s
circle are too rewarding, and the risks of leaving, too perilous.

When Enrile and Ramos set up camps for people to come and join them,
millions of arrived from across the country to show their support for
Aquino. The streets of Manila looked like Rangoon must have done during
the 1988 uprising; students, nuns and civilians came together to reject
the military regime and welcome in democracy.

Eventually, Marcos, whose regime had seen the killing of 3,257 dissidents,
accepted that the Philippine people no longer wanted him as ruler of their
country and went into exile. In stark contrast, even as hundreds of
thousands of people marched the streets of Rangoon, the military regime
stubbornly held on to power and brushed off the cries of dissent.

The Burmese people have tried to use their power en masse but the regime
cannot accept mass rejection of their rule. When a dictatorship is so lost
in their ways, an uprising would require generals to defect, which is
unlikely to happen in Burma. Change in Burma needs to come through an
uprising and not sham elections which will see military-tied businessman
maintaining previous levels of corruption and elitism.

Another concern is whether the Philippines are the right country to act as
mediator between the US and Burma. The Philippines has insignificant trade
links with Burma and there seems little reason why Burma’s generals would
adhere to guidance or pressure from the Philippines. Arroya can lobby
other nations in the region to act more sternly with the regime, but
effective and direct engagement is unlikely. Although once colonised and
at war with America, the Philippines was later liberated by them from a
savage Japanese occupation. This has produced long lasting ties between
the two countries and quelled the extreme xenophobia which has plagued
Burma since independence from the British.

With Burma’s hatred for America and the West unyielding, how wise is it
for the Philippines to publicly declare their allied relationship in
tackling Burma? If Arroya really wants to develop a democracy in Burma,
would it not have been more tactful to stay away from the White house and
build a stronger relationship with Delhi and Beijing, who actually have
some influence on the generals’ next move?

Furthermore, Arroyo’s somewhat tarnished leadership could be exploited by
the Burmese to highlight the imperfections of democracy and relationships
with the West. Her election victory was overshadowed by allegations of
corruption, which have pursued her throughout her presidency.

During Arroyo's recent meeting at the White House, Obama praised her for
the Philippines’ effort in the War on Terror. What has actually happened,
however, sets a terrible example for reconciliation and how to deal with
opposition and criticism. Since 2001, hundreds of activists, journalists
and human rights defenders have been murdered.

Human rights groups blame Arroyo for not tackling the problem early enough
and for appointing General Palparan in the Security Council, who is
believed to be the main orchestrator of the killings. Many believe the
current state of the country mirrors life under Marcos; militarily
controlled and dominated by death squads. This is not the type of paradigm
that the Burmese generals should be examining, particularly as critics of
Arroyo continue to ask for reconciliation and a full transition to
democracy.

The former Philippine president Corozan Aquino, who died on Saturday, said
that “reconciliation should be accompanied by justice, otherwise it will
not last. While we all hope for peace it shouldn't be peace at any cost
but peace based on principle, on justice.”

The chances of Arroyo bringing about any changes in Burma are slim. She
has allied herself so closely to the West that Burma will be repelled to
listen to anything she says. And even if they did, she is far from the
role model for democracy which would help the Burmese generals develop a
free and fair political environment.

____________________________________

August 6, The Australian
Burma's deadly course - Greg Sheridan

BURMA is a bugger of a problem. And it's getting worse. Last weekend,
Fairfax papers reported testimony from two Burmese defectors which
suggested Rangoon had progressed some distance towards building
clandestine nuclear facilities with North Korean assistance.

Burma is a rogue state. Rogue states, like failed states (such as
Somalia), are beyond international norms and almost by definition do not
care about international opinion, with the exception generally of their
one or two sponsors.

Burma is a particularly difficult case. If ever there was an example ofthe
need for some new thinking, it's Burma.

Just establishing the facts is extremely challenging. The defector
testimony said Burma was constructing tunnels in which it had also begun
constructing nuclear reactors, with North Korean help.

This was a valuable story, not because what the defectors say is
necessarily true, but because it is useful to know what defectors are
saying. After Iraq, everyone is very careful about defector testimony
regarding nuclear matters.

Defectors don't always tell you the truth. Sometimes they say what they
believe their interrogators want to hear. Sometimes they say what will
maximise their value. Sometimes they don't know the truth.

On the other hand, defectors have on occasions given critically important
and accurate testimony. It was dissident testimony that revealed Iran's
secret nuclear programs.

I have been following this Burmese story a long time. In 2006, I reported
that US intelligence harboured deep concerns about Burma's ambitions to
acquire nuclear material and expertise from North Korea.

At that time, the best US analysis was that no nuclear material had yet
passed from North Korea to Burma.

Having talked to some extremely well-informed Asian analysts, I'm inclined
to think the Burmese defector testimony was exaggerated.

No one knows for sure. The stakes are so enormous that we need to make a
serious effort, though, to find out all we can. Much of the defector
testimony seems to hinge on North Korean assistance in building tunnels.
It is true that tunnels can be used to hide reactors. However, there is
also significant evidence that North Korea has been helping the paranoid
Burmese regime build tunnels as elaborate air raid shelters for the ruling
junta in the event of US attack.

A US air attack on Burma is almost inconceivable but Than Shwe's military
junta is intensely paranoid. It moved its capital from Rangoon to an
inland city apparently because it feared Rangoon was susceptible to
military attack.

There is no doubt there is a deep relationship between the Burmese and
North Korean militaries. The two countries have a strange history.

For more of this article, please visit:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25888588-7583,00.html