BurmaNet News, August 15-17, 2009

[Editor]

August 15-17, 2009 Issue #3777

INSIDE BURMA
AP: US senator says Suu Kyi may ease sanctions stance
VOA News: US Senator: Burma denies nuclear plans
Independent (UK): Burmese villagers 'forced to work on Total pipeline'
Mizzima: Ceasefire groups put business expansion on hold
Irrawaddy: Villagers fear September offensive
Irrawaddy: NLD leader undergoes operation
DVB: Burmese troops kill DKBA deserter

INTERNATIONAL
AP: Risky rescue missions can complicate US diplomacy
The Nation: US senator calls for pressure on China

OPINION / OTHER
Asia Times: Regime rides above sanctions - Simon Roughneen
Irrawaddy: Webb visit a success? - Debbie Stothard
Heritage: Bad deal on Burma
NLM: Politics is to do real possibility - Maung Nwe Sit

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 17, Associated Press
US senator says Suu Kyi may ease sanctions stance - Grant Peck

Bangkok– A U.S. senator who called for a "new approach" to dealing with
Myanmar said Monday that the country's detained democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi indicated she would not oppose the lifting of some U.S. sanctions
on the junta.

Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia ended an extraordinary trip to Myanmar on
Sunday, during which he held a rare meeting with the Nobel Peace laureate
as well as the leader of the government that has detained her for 14 of
the past 20 years.

Webb also secured the release of an ailing American, who was convicted of
helping Suu Kyi violate the terms of her house arrest and sentenced to
seven years last week. John Yettaw, of Falcoln, Missouri, was undergoing
medical tests in Bangkok on Monday.

Myanmar has borne international censure and increasing isolation since the
army barred Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy from taking power even
after the party won a 1990 election.

The United States and other Western nations maintain political and
economic sanctions against the military regime because of its poor human
rights record and failure to relinquish power.

Webb, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's East
Asia and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee, maintains that the sanctions have
failed to move Myanmar toward democratic reforms and is seeking to amend
U.S. policy, currently under review by the Obama administration.

He said that the junta's agreement to free Yettaw into his custody and
allow him a rare visit with Suu Kyi are gestures that could lead to closer
engagement with Myanmar's military government. His meeting Saturday with
Than Shwe was the first time the reclusive general has met with a senior
U.S. political figure.

Suu Kyi is known to support Western sanctions against her country's
government, although her precise position is difficult to discern because
she has not been able to speak publicly since she was last taken into
detention in May 2003.

Webb, in a press conference Monday in Bangkok, said he wanted to be
careful not to misrepresent Suu Kyi's views, but it was his "clear
impression from her that she is not opposed to lifting some sanctions,"
and that "there would be some areas she would be willing to look at."

He said the sanctions issue was not specifically raised in his talk with
Than Shwe, "although obviously it's the elephant in the bedroom."

He declined to reveal details of his talks with Suu Kyi and Than Shwe,
saying that he will report to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
when he returns to Washington.

Clinton has said the U.S. is reviewing its Myanmar policy, suggesting that
sanctions have not worked, though she also pointed to the trial against
Yettaw and Suu Kyi as unhelpful.

Yettaw, a 53-year-old former contractor, was convicted last week of
breaking the terms of Suu Kyi's house arrest and related charges, and
given seven years' imprisonment with hard labor.

He had been apprehended in May as he was swimming away from Suu Kyi's
residence, where he sheltered for two days after sneaking in uninvited.

Suu Kyi was sentenced to three years in prison with hard labor for
violating her house arrest conditions, although that was reduced to 18
months under house arrest by Than Shwe.

Yettaw's intrusion into Suu Kyi's home was seen by many of the junta's
critics as giving it a legal pretext to keep the Nobel laureate
incarcerated through next year's general election. Yettaw testified that
he had a vision that Suu Kyi was at risk from assassins, and visited her
to warn her.

Yettaw's family in the United States said he was not in good health after
three months in a Myanmar prison.

"Our first priority is ensuring the health of Mr. Yettaw," said Cynthia
Brown, the U.S. Embassy spokeswoman in Bangkok, who declined to say where
Yettaw was receiving medical care or when he was expected to return home.

Myanmar state television said Sunday night that Yettaw was freed on
humanitarian grounds because of his health. He suffers from diabetes and
was hospitalized for a week during the trial after suffering seizures.

His ex-wife, Yvonne, said she had spoken to his current wife, Betty
Yettaw, of Camdenton, Missouri, who said she talked with her husband in
Bangkok.

She said Betty told her they were running medical tests on her husband in
a Bangkok hospital, but did not know what for. "But he is not in good
health," said Yvonne Yettaw, of Palm Springs, California.

Yvonne Yettaw also said the family has to pay for his ticket home and
there have been some complications trying to schedule a flight, so it is
unclear when he will be returning.

____________________________________

August 17, VOA News
US Senator: Burma denies nuclear plans - Heda Bayron

U.S. Senator Jim Webb, who recently held talks with Burma's military
leaders, says the government denies reports that it is trying to acquire
nuclear technology. The senator also says Burma's opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi has indicated a willingness to see some sanctions on Burma
lifted.

Senator Jim Webb says he did not directly raise the issue of whether Burma
has a covert nuclear program during talks with the country's leader,
General Than Shwe. Webb met with the reclusive leader on Saturday, the
first high-ranking U.S. official to do so.

However, he said Monday that the Burmese government denied having a
nuclear program.

"But it was communicated to me earlier on that there was no truth to that,
from a very high level in their government," Webb said.

Earlier this month, Australian researchers said interviews with defectors
from Burma revealed that the government has a secret nuclear program,
allegedly aided by North Korea. In June, a North Korean ship believed to
be headed to Burma with a suspicious cargo turned back under international
pressure. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that any military
ties between Burma and North Korea pose a security threat to the region.

In an unprecedented gesture toward the United States, Webb was allowed to
meet opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon Saturday. He also was
able to win the release of a U.S. citizen, John Yettaw, jailed for
illegally visiting Aung San Suu Kyi at her home in May. That visit led to
the government extending her house arrest by 18 months.

Webb says it appears Aung San Suu Kyi might not oppose easing sanctions on
Burma. The U.S, the European Union and other Western governments have
imposed economic sanctions over the years to punish the repressive
military government. Webb favors the eventual lifting of sanctions on
Burma, which he and others argue only increased the isolation of its
people.

"I don't want to take the risk of misrepresenting her views," Webb said.
"But I would say to you that it was my clear impression from her that she
is not opposed to lifting some sanctions."

In the late 1990s, Aung San Suu Kyi expressed some support for economic
sanctions as a way to pressure the government to recognize her party's
election victory in 1990 and allow it to form a government. But in recent
years, she has not publicly commented on sanctions. She has spent 14 of
the last 20 years under house arrest.

On Sunday, Webb said Washington needs to develop new ways to end Burma's
isolation and bring about political and economic change. Webb, a Democrat,
spoke with Secretary Clinton Sunday and will brief her again upon his
return to Washington.

The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on East Asia and
Pacific Affairs is on a five-nation tour of Southeast Asia. From Bangkok,
he will fly to Cambodia Tuesday and from there, to Vietnam.

____________________________________

August 17, Mizzima News
Ceasefire groups put business expansion on hold - Phanida

Chiang Mai – Four ceasefire groups, which have an alliance and have flatly
refused the junta’s proposal to transform into the Border Guard Force
(BGF), are putting on hold their business expansion plans for the moment.

This has been hinted at by the four ceasefire groups namely the Kachin
Independence Organization (KIO), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the
Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Maila a.k.a.
the National Democracy Alliance Army (NDAA).

An official of the Bugar Company’s Rangoon Office, which runs KIO owned
operations in gems, tours and travel, roads and bridge building told
Mizzima, “We are only continuing with our present business. We do not have
any expansion plans for the moment”.

An official of the UWSA, which focuses on rubber plantations said, “There
are no new and significant business operations. We are into plantation of
substitute crops in lieu of opium, which is mainly rubber. We have not
stopped this business but there is no expansion”.

It is learnt that MNDAA (Kokang) has also stopped investments in tea and
rubber plantations along the Sino-Burma border.

“They have no plans to continue business operations inside Burma. For the
time being, they have stopped the incomplete business ventures and
accepting new contracts. They will consider resuming all these business
operations only after 2010,”a source close to MNDAA told Mizzima.

Despite rumours in circulation about recalling their men based in Rangoon
because of the palpable tension between the Burmese Army and these
ceasefire groups, officials of the KIO, and the Shan State North Special
Region (Shan State Army-North) SSA-N have denied it.

But a Rangoon based official of another ceasefire group the Kayan New Land
Party, Kayah State Special Region 3 said that he had heard that the
members of the Kokang and Wa based in Rangoon had returned to their mother
units. But he did not know the details.

An officer from the Shan State South Special Region No. 6 Rangoon office
said that it was true that UWSA and KIO had recalled their Rangoon based
officials to their headquarters.

____________________________________

August 14, The Independent (UK)
Burmese villagers 'forced to work on Total pipeline' - Rajeshree Sisodia
and Andrew Buncombe

French energy giant accused of profiting as new testimony gives shocking
insight into junta's labour regime

The French energy giant Total is at the centre of allegations that Burmese
villagers are being used as forced labour to help support a huge gas
pipeline that is earning the country's military regime hundreds of
millions of dollars.

Testimony from villagers and former soldiers gathered by human rights
workers suggests that Burmese soldiers, who provide security for the
Yadana pipeline on behalf of Total, are forcing thousands of people to
work portering, carrying wood and repairing roads in the pipeline area.
They have also been forced to build police stations and barracks.

One villager, identified pseudonymously as Htay Win Oo, told researchers
from the Thailand-based human rights group EarthRights International
(ERI): "Since early 2009 I've [witnessed] Burmese soldiers ... that are
stationed near our village ask our village to build a new police camp. The
soldiers ordered villagers to build a new camp in late March. The land
where they set up the new camp belongs to local villagers ... the soldiers
ordered villagers to help build it. Villagers had to cut bamboo, wood, and
leaves for the building and at the same time they had to build it."

Burma's junta, the State Peace and Development Council, officially
outlawed the use of forced labour in 1999. However, campaigners say troops
routinely force civilians to work for them and those who refuse are often
beaten, tortured or sometimes killed.

Total insists that forced labour is not used around the pipeline. On its
website, the company states: "The local inhabitants around the Yadana
pipeline say that they are happy to have us there. They are, above all,
grateful that there is no forced labour in the area around our pipeline."

Yet such claims are not supported by the International Labour Organisation
(ILO), the UN agency that works in Burma to try and stop forced labour.

Steve Marshall, an ILO spokesman, said: "It would be unfair and inaccurate
to say that the pipeline area is forced-labour free. Total does not
control the area, it operates it. In terms of the pipeline area, there are
big areas that are outside its control. As we understand it, forced labour
is still being used there by other entities, though to a much lesser
extent [than in some areas]."

The evidence collected by ERI and due to be published next month suggests
that villagers are routinely forced to work in various guises. One former
soldier from the 273 battalion said: "We were told it was a 30-year
project and the country got half and the foreigners got half of the
benefit ... We ask [the villagers] to carry shell ammunition, food and
supplies.

"During the portering the soldiers treat porters not so good. I do not
want to mention about these bad things so much since I myself I have done
it to these people as well at that time." Matthew Smith, of the ERI, said
that Total was misleading the public, shareholders and investors about its
impact in Burma and said the company was responsible for the abuses
committed by troops guarding its project. "The evidence is unassailable
that the Yadana project ushered in the Burmese army and that the Burmese
army continues to provide security for the companies and the project," he
said. "The company has been complicit in abuses."

The question of whether foreign companies, with an eye on Burma's riches
of oil and gas, should invest in one of the world's most repressive
regimes, has come into sharper focus following this week's decision by the
regime to detain opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi for a further 18
months under house arrest and the subsequent demand for tougher sanctions
from campaigners.

Yet projects such as the Yadana pipeline, which transports gas from fields
in the Andaman Sea through south-east Burma into Thailand, are hugely
attractive to both the investors and the junta. Research suggests the
regime earned $969m (£585m) from the Yadana project in 2007. Total has
declined to say how much it earns.

It is not the first time Total has been at the centre of forced labour
allegations in Burma. In 2005 it paid $6.12m in an out-of-court settlement
after a group of villagers living near the Yadana pipeline alleged the
company was involved in human rights abuses.

Last night a spokeswoman for Total said: "We are reviewing [ERI's
allegations] and intend to adjust our website in the coming weeks so that
it can publicly address the issues, whenever possible. It should also be
noted that people in the villages around the pipeline are grateful for the
fact that systematic recourse to forced labour in the area where Total
operates has stopped. Such acknowledgements have been consistently
repeated in front of independent experts commissioned to periodically
evaluate the impact of our activities."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/burmese-villagers-forced-to-work-on-total-pipeline-1771876.html

____________________________________

August 17, Irrawaddy
Villagers fear September offensive - Saw Yan Naing

Ei Tu Hta—After overrunning the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA)
Brigade 7 headquarters in southern Karen State, a joint Burmese army and
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) force plans to resume its offensive
in northern Karen State in September, and take over the remaining KNLA
bases along the Thai-Burmese border.

The targeted areas are KNLA Brigade 5 and KNLA military bases along the
Salween River on the border with northern Thailand’s Mae Hong Son
Province.
KNLA Brigade 5 troops prepare to resist the joint Burmese DKBA offensive.
(Photo: Saw Yan Naing/ The Irrawaddy)

The Commander of KNLA Brigade 5, Baw Kyaw, said his soldiers will defend
the area and its villages to the best of their ability. He expects the
offensive will come soon.

“If the DKBA follows the orders of the Burmese army, they are our enemy,”
Baw Kyaw told The Irrawaddy in a KNLA controlled area on the border. The
KNLA is the military wing of the Karen National Union.

Many Karen villagers in Papun District in northern Karen State and along
the Salween River on the Thai-Burmese border are on alert against the
joint Burmese and DKBA force, Karen villagers at the border said.

If the offensive succeeds, thousands of Internally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) in northern Karen State and more than 4,000 Karen refugees in Ei Tu
Hta, a temporary camp on the Salween River, will be forced to flee to Thai
soil, Karen sources said.

Wah Eh Htoo, secretary of Ei Tu Hta refugee camp told The Irrawaddy:
“Villagers fear the DKBA plan to take over the border.”

Ei Htu Ta camp is located on the Burmese bank of the Salween River in
Karen State.

“We told the refugees to pack their pots and plates after meals and be
ready to flee with other belongings at any time,” said Wah Eh Htoo.

Due to Burmese attacks, about 10,000 IDPs are currently hiding in the
jungle in Nyaunglebin District in Pegu Division and Luthaw Township in
Papun District, northern Karen state, said local villagers and relief
groups who met with The Irrawaddy at the border on August 12.

Saw T’kwel, leader of Ei Tu Hta’s zone 6 said if the camp is attacked, the
villagers will face problems getting food supplies, medical care and
education for their children.

The IDPs dare not return home and fear that if they flee to Thailand, the
Thai authorities will not permit them to stay long, he said.

“We live in fear of being caught on the battlefield,” Saw T’kwel said.
“The expected offensive is the most common topic of conversation between
businessmen and villagers.”
Refugee children in Ei Tu Hta must be ready to flee if they are attacked.
(Photo: Saw Yan Naing/ The Irrawaddy)

One anonymous DKBA source said DKBA forces will be stationed along the
Salween River after the offensive against Brigade 5 is complete.

The DKBA will take control of logging, border trade taxation and security
around dam construction sites on the Salween and Moei rivers, he said.

If the DKBA gains control along along the Salween, Karen relief groups
will find it difficult to transport supplies by boat from the Thai border
to areas still under KNLA control, sources said.

Border traders also expressed fears about restrictions if the DKBA gains
control.

The Salween River is one of the main conduits for Thai-Burmese trade,
which decreased after the DKBA split from KNU in 1995. Trade has increased
in recent years, however.

Burmese forces stationed in some areas along the river said they will
withdraw and be replaced by the DKBA over the next year.

One of the strongest ethnic ceasefire groups in Burma, the DKBA is the
only force that agreed with the Burmese regime’s order to transform its
troops into a border guard force. Other strong  armed groups such as the
United Wa State Army and the Kachin Independence Organization rejected the
order.

According to the Burmese regime, the DKBA is among 17 ethnic ceasefire
groups that signed ceasefire agreements with the Burmese regime since
1995.

The joint Burmese DKBA force overran KNLA Brigade 7 in southern Karen
State in July after three weeks of fighting. Since then, some border trade
including logging and surveying for dam construction has resumed, border
sources said.

____________________________________

August 17, Irrawaddy
NLD leader undergoes operation - Arkar Moe

Win Tin, 80, a senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leader,
underwent an operation for a heart condition at a private clinic in
Rangoon on Sunday.

Family members said he is good condition.

Win Tin was hospitalized on Saturday. An NLD spokesperson, Nyan Win, said
he may remain in the clinic this week.
Win Tin stands next to Aung San Suu Kyi's portrait at the headquarters of
National League for Democracy in Rangoon. (Photo: Getty Images)

A family member told The Irrawaddy on Monday, “He was operated on
successfully in Asia Taw Win Clinic last night.”

Win Tin, a former editor, was released from prison in September 2008 after
serving 19 years in Rangoon’s notorious Insein Prison.

He served as an adviser to pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and was
sentenc
ed to 21 years in prison in 1989 during a crackdown on government opponents.

In 1996, he received an additional 7-year sentence for writing a
testimonial on torture and the lack of medical treatment in Insein Prison,
which he sent to the UN. As punishment, he was placed in solitary
confinement in a room intended for dogs and was deprived of food and
water.

He said a few hours after his release from prison, “I will keep fighting
until the emergence of democracy in this country.”

____________________________________

August 17, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burmese troops kill DKBA deserter

A deserter from a pro-junta militia wanted for the killing of two
government soldiers was last week shot dead by Burmese troops and members
of his former group.

A former lieutenant in the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), Saw
Pha-Htaw (also-known-as Ashaygyi) had been on the run since his desertion
on 10 August following an argument with a senior official, Aung Chit.

Following the argument, he opened fire on two soldiers from the
government’s Military Operation Command 12, and two local policemen,
killing all four.

According to DKBA official, three days later DKBA troops stopped a
Rangoon-bound bus in eastern Burma that he was riding on and a gun battle
broke out.

“After four or five shots were fired into the truck, Ashaygyi, apparently
worried that passengers might get caught in the crossfire, came out of the
bus carrying a pistol and two grenades,” said the official. “He was shot
dead on the spot.”

An associate of Ashaygyi was also shot and seriously wounded after
attempting to flee the battle, while a 30-year-old pregnant woman was hit
by a stray bullet and killed. One DKBA troop and one Burmese army soldier
were also killed.

The DKBA official said the group had made contact with the woman’s husband
in Bangkok, offering an apology and compensation for her death, but no
response had yet been received.

“We kept her body in Kawkerit for three days and made contact with her
husband,” he said.

“We told him to come here so we can explain to him what happened and give
compensation but he never replied,” he said.

A funeral for Ashaygyi was held on Saturday.

DKBA troops and government soldiers had recently allied in an offensive
against the opposition Karen National Union (KNU), which caused around
4000 Karen civilians to flee into neighbouring Thailand.

The DKBA split from the KNU in 1994 and have since enjoyed a ceasefire
agreement and close association with the ruling junta.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 17, Associated Press
Risky rescue missions can complicate US diplomacy - Lolita C. Baldor

Rescue mission or diplomatic risk?

While the sight of a freed American prisoner landing on home soil is a
celebrated victory, recent high-profile diplomatic rescues in North Korea
and Myanmar can also complicate U.S. diplomacy.

The release Sunday of an American man from Myanmar after a visit there by
Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia follows closely on the heels of a similar rescue
of two journalists by former President Bill Clinton in Pyongyang earlier
this month.

Both gained their public goal — the freedom of U.S. captives. But both
also nudged open a diplomatic door that could either invite welcome change
or slam shut on President Barack Obama's emerging foreign policy.

With their timing so close, the Clinton and Webb missions may suggest to
other rogue nations that in dealings with the Obama administration,
holding American hostages can be a profitable political ploy.

"They can look at this and say, there's a new game afoot," said John
Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. "They think, we can
get legitimacy and high level attention by using Americans as pawns."

Such visits, argue experts, can give regime leaders an aura of respect and
recognition that may make it harder for the U.S. to press for sanctions or
continue isolation policies aimed at forcing change in everything from
humans rights to nuclear power.

At the same time, Bolton said, there is the risk that other would-be
heroes across the Washington power spectrum may also decide that they too
could wage "publicity hound diplomacy."

Still, the solo rescue missions can spawn benefits that make the risks
worth taking.

First and foremost, such lower level contact that doesn't involve a
sitting president or secretary of state can take the temperature for
change without the added pressure of a formal engagement that is more
likely to demand results.

In that way, it can be a face-saving measure, since an unsuccessful
mission by an unofficial delegate is less likely to be condemned as a
White House failure.

If successful, the solo sessions can lead to a long-term payoff — thawed
relations between enemy nations or a shift in policy.

Obama has advocated more contact with other less-friendly nations, even
including a willingness to talk with Iran.

He has said he would be willing to talk to anyone without preconditions,
referring to nations with whom the Bush administration had refused to hold
discussions.

Webb on Sunday said he hoped his Myanmar visit and meeting with military
junta leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe would improve relations between the two
countries.

Washington has led efforts to impose political and economic sanctions on
the regime because of its poor human rights record and failure to transfer
power to democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi after a 1990 election.

The senator, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's East Asia
and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee, is the first member of Congress to visit
Myanmar in more than a decade. He said he plans to discuss his
recommendations with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton when he
returns.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Sunday that the White House
had monitored the Myanmar situation, but he had little else to say about
the Webb trip.

"Obviously this was something that he did independently," Gibbs said of
Webb. He was briefed before he left by the State Department, Gibbs said.

Webb's visit to Myanmar, also called Burma, secured the freedom of John
Yettaw, 53, of Missouri, who was apprehended after swimming uninvited to
Suu Kyi's lakeside residence, where she is being held on house arrest.

Stephen Flanagan, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, said Webb's mission provides an opening for the
Obama administration to begin a dialogue with Myanmar, which does not now
have diplomatic relations with the U.S.

Flanagan also dismissed suggestions that the rescue missions undercuts
Secretary Clinton. She has a full agenda and is clearly shaping policy, he
said.

At the same time, however, he said Bill Clinton's trip to North Korea,
where he won the release of two journalists, was more diplomatically risky
than the Webb trip. Critics said the former president's meeting with North
Korean leader Kim Jong Il gave undue legitimacy to the combative,
nuclear-testing nation.

"That mission opened up problematic questions," said Flanagan, including
suggestions that it undermined efforts to increase sanctions on North
Korea to pressure the nation to recommit to six-nation talks on the
dismantling of its nuclear weapons program.

Unofficial solo diplomatic missions by former leaders and senior lawmakers
have been a diplomatic staple for decades. In the 1950s, then-Sen. Hubert
Humphrey used a fact-finding trip to Russia to press for arms control in a
conversation with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson went to North Korea in 1996 when he was a
member of Congress, to help secure the release of an American, Evan C.
Hunziker, of Tacoma, Wash., detained for three months on spy charges. Two
years earlier he helped arrange the freedom of a U.S. pilot, Bobby Hall,
whose helicopter had strayed into North Korean airspace. Richardson
brought a tape of the American Western movie, "Maverick," as a gift for
Kim Jong Il.

At times, the missions are not sanctioned by the U.S. administration. The
Rev. Jesse Jackson ignored the wishes of the White House in 1999 and
traveled to the former Yugoslavia to win the release of three U.S.
soldiers held captive there.

____________________________________

August 17, The Nation
US senator calls for pressure on China - Supalak Ganjanakhundee

US Senator Jim Webb, who helped free an American from Burma over the
weekend, yesterday called for diplomatic pressure on China to nudge the
military-ruled country towards democracy and national reconciliation.

"I believe that China has an obligation to use its influence to resolve
the situation," Webb said.

He arrived in Bangkok from Burma with the American, John Yettaw, who
caused trouble for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi by swimming across a
lake to her home in May.

Suu Kyi was detained 18 months under further house arrest and Yettaw was
sentenced to seven years imprisonment and hard labour.

Webb said what Yettaw did was regrettable but he asked the junta to deport
him on humanitarian grounds. Yettaw was not well and was taken for a
medical examination at a Bangkok hospital upon landing on the same plane
with Webb.

During his visit to Burma, Webb met with the junta's paramount leader,
Than Shwe, and Suu Kyi. He said he told the junta to free Suu Kyi from her
current term of house arrest and allow her to participate fully in the
political process leading towards the election next year.

He also encouraged Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy Party to
find a way to work inside the political process.

To achieve the goal of both sides, Webb called upon the United States
government, the European Union and Asean to bring more diplomatic pressure
on China by asking Beijing to act responsively with its role as the
superpower over Burma.

Webb disagreed with the sanctions on Burma, saying that over the past
years they have served to amplify its isolation from the West and allow
China to dramatically increase its economic and political influence.

He said he told Suu Kyi that sanctions only work when all the countries
potentially involved participate in imposing them.

The current sanctions have essentially driven Burma closer to China,
making the country more vulnerable, he added.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 17, Asia Times
Regime rides above sanctions - Simon Roughneen

Bangkok - Despite some buffeting by the global economic downturn, revenues
from gas, oil, hardwood and gemstones continue to flow into Myanmar's
coffers, helping junta leader Senior General Than Shwe to maintain
Southeast Asia's largest standing army. An estimated 50% of the state's
revenues go towards maintaining the country's 400,000-strong military.

While Western countries impose economic sanctions against the junta,
including new measures imposed last week by the European Union against
members of Myanmar's judiciary and 58 other enterprises, Asian states are
fiercely competing for oil and gas concessions. That promises even greater
wealth for the ruling military junta, even as its international reputation
plummets in the wake of last week's sentencing of pro-democracy leader
Aung San Suu Kyi to three years in jail, later reduced to 18 months of
house arrest.

Thailand and China were estimated to have provided US$850 million of the
$980 million total that was invested in the country last year, in
everything from oil and gas, to roads, along with gems and timber
extraction. As of 2007, both countries accounted for over half of
Myanmar's exports and imports. Those figures should rise as new
hydroelectric projects and a port-pipeline facility linking the Myanmar
coast to western China get underway later this year.

When Myanmar has faced intense international criticism, including in
reaction to its slow response last year to the Cyclone Nargis disaster,
China, its main ally, has provided the regime with political cover through
its seat on the United Nations Security Council. This was replicated in
China's public response to the Suu Kyi verdict, saying that the
international community should respect Myanmar's "judicial sovereignty"
and that it would not support any United Nations-sponsored sanctions
linked to the verdict.

With China, India , South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) averse to any form of sanctions on the junta, there is a
case to be made that Western restrictions merely drive business elsewhere.

"Chinese investment is imperative for [Myanmar] amid the US and European
Union sanctions," said Arpitha Bykere, Asia Analyst at the Roubini Global
Economy (RGE) Monitor, a US-based research center. "Economic ties with
Asia help [Myanmar] show to the world that despite sanctions, it can
attract trade and investment from several countries. This boosts
[Myanmar's] political leverage to resist global calls for political
reform."

Little of the largesse from recent foreign investments has gone towards
much-needed health, education, and agriculture sector spending. A 2006
estimate of the child mortality rate in eastern Myanmar was 221 per 1,000,
higher than the 205 recorded in the war-ravaged Democratic Republic of the
Congo. The World Health Organization (WHO) ranks the nation's health
system as the second worst on the planet, while according to UNICEF, the
United Nations Children's Fun, more than 25% of the population lacks
access to potable water.

These abysmal statistics figure largely in the debate over whether Western
countries should maintain their sanctions or move towards more engagement
with Myanmar's rights abusing regime. Engagement advocates note that
Myanmar received 20 times less per-capita from donor countries than other
countries with similar poverty levels. According to the US Central
Intelligence Agency yearbook, 32.7% of Myanmar's people lived under the
poverty line in 2007 while the population endured inflation of 27.3% in
2008.

The junta's foreign minister, Nyan Win, described economic sanctions as
"immoral" in a September 2008 address to the UN General Assembly, adding
that they "are counter-productive and deprive countries of their right to
development". Prime Minister Thein Sein made much the same argument in
presentations in February to UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari.

There were earlier indications of a possible policy rethink in Washington.
In the run-up to the Suu Kyi verdict, US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton offered to consider renewed US investment in exchange for the
release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners and her National League
for Democracy (NLD) party being allowed to participate in elections
scheduled for next year.

The State Department had earlier said it would consider a review of US
policy towards Myanmar, an acknowledgement that past policies and
sanctions had failed to influence the junta. That debate was expected to
stall after the junta spurned US and UN calls against extending Suu Kyi's
detention. However, Than Shwe's meeting over the weekend with US
Democratic senator Jim Webb, which also allowed the Amercian an hour-long
meeting with Suu Kyi, has raised new questions about diplomatic next
steps.

The EU's tightened sanctions added members of Myanmar's judiciary
responsible for the Suu Kyi verdict to a list of some 500 Myanmar
government officials whose assets in the EU are frozen and who are banned
from travel to the EU's 27-member bloc. In contrast, China, Russia,
Vietnam and Libya watered-down a US-drafted UN Security Council statement
on the Suu Kyi verdict to express "concern" rather than outright
condemnation.

The counter-sanctions argument promoted by many Asian nations suggests
that restrictions fail to influence the junta and only keep the nation's
poor downtrodden. Given that the majority of Myanmar's population - 70% of
the people - are employed in the agriculture sector and benefit neither
from the regime's resource extraction activities nor its trade and
investment links with neighboring countries, the sanctions debate is
something of a red herring.

Myanmar economy expert and Macquarie University economist Sean Turnell
told Asia Times Online that the majority of Myanmar's people "might never
have seen a bank, much less have anything to do with the type of
institutions and links targeted by sanctions". Moreover, upgrading the
amount of donor aid sent to Myanmar would amount to a free pass for the
junta on development-related spending it should be undertaking itself.

The junta's concern about the impact of sanctions suggests either one of
two things: Myanmar's military rulers have turned a new leaf and want to
help their people, or they do in fact feel the pinch of sanctions and are
worried that if replicated closer to home, the impact on the elites would
be devastating. If the former is indeed true, it is not reflected in junta
policy.

On May 11, the Financial Times quoted an unreleased annual International
Monetary Fund report that said Myanmar's foreign exchange reserves are at
a record $3.6 billion, but that the ruling junta has not used them to help
the impoverished population and that the country's economic prospects
remain "bleak". Vigorous rolling of the monetary presses has contributed
to an inflation rate of around 30%, the report said.

The junta has boasted that its international isolation would help it
weather the global economic downturn, at least compared with its more
export-oriented counterparts in ASEAN, such as Singapore, Malaysia and
Thailand. Other members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Vietnam and Myanmar. This hasn't been the case, however. RGE Monitor's
Bykere said that "Myanmar has taken a hit due to a global commodity
[price] correction. Production and export of natural gas, mining products,
food products and several other commodities have been severely affected."

Although the junta's official statistics claim that the economy is growing
at around 10% annually, Turnell said that various indicators, including
weak domestic energy consumption, suggest that the economy is actually
contracting. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit's latest report
on Myanmar, the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for
2009 is projected to be only 1%.

According to Turnell, Burma's problems can be traced to the state's
commanding control of the economy, which squeezes the life out of
private-sector activities. Disproportionate budgetary allocations to the
military means that no rural credit is available, even though 70% of the
national workforce are subsistence farmers. Meanwhile, foreign revenues
are understated on the national accounts because of exchange rate
manipulations. For instance, revenue from gas exports is added to the
budget at the fixed official exchange of six kyat to the dollar rather
than the 1,000-kyat to the greenback floating black market rate.

Recorded at the official rate, Myanmar's gas earnings represent less than
1% of overall budget receipts; if the same gas earnings were recorded at
the market exchange rate, their contribution would be more than double
total official state receipts.

Turnell says the rationale behind the dual exchange rates "is probably to
'quarantine' [Myanmar's] foreign exchange from the country's public
accounts, thereby making them available to the regime and its cronies.
This accounting is facilitated by [Myanmar's] state-owned Foreign Trade
Bank and some willing offshore banks."

These complicit offshore banks are known to be in neighboring states,
implying that a broader Western sanctions regime that hit certain Asian
banks might have a greater impact on the junta's finances. The Asian
states most critical of the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions are often
the same ones that undermine them by offering Myanmar's junta alternative
financial, trade and investment options.

If Myanmar were a democratic state, the Myanmar people would be the
rightful sovereign owners of the country's resources and revenues and
would have some say in how they were spent. But as the country gears up
for democratic elections next year, all indications - including Suu Kyi's
continued detention - are that the military intends to extend its
political and economic dominance via a civilian veneer.

Simon Roughneen is a roving freelance journalist. He has reported from
over 20 countries and is currently based in Southeast Asia.

____________________________________

August 17, Irrawaddy
Webb visit a success? - Debbie Stothard

Senator Webb’s visit to Burma has been considered “successful” because he
was able to tick three items off his checklist: “rescuing” John Yettaw
from seven years in jail with hard labor; meeting Snr-Gen Than Shwe; and
meeting Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

In the eyes of international stakeholders who have gotten accustomed to
the Burmese junta’s intransigence, the visit was a coup. This has been the
biggest stride forward since former UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail secured
Suu Kyi’s release in 2002 and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon was able to
persuade the generals to accept lucrative aid in 2008.

How ironic. Sen Webb’s “success” stems from the leverage enjoyed by the
US’s significant (and effective) sanctions—a ban on imports from Burma and
a ban on financial services—that were imposed in 2003 on top of the 1997
ban on new investment.

The US’s previous willingness to “put their money where their mouth is”
has gained the respect of the Burmese regime. The State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) has invested millions of dollars over the past
decade to woo the US into greater engagement, compared to its cavalier
treatment of Asean.

Than Shwe respects power by the extent to which is exercised. He
recognizes that the US has traditionally backed its statements with
action. Remember Asean’s great achievement of persuading the SPDC to open
up to Cyclone Nargis aid? Well, it wouldn’t have been possible without the
USS Essex-led carrier group and other foreign navies on standby off the
Burmese coast. Than Shwe was given the impression he had to make the
choice of cooperating with Asean or deal with the US navy.

The junta has generally responded to the relatively hollow diplomatic
overtures made by the UN, EU and Asean with empty promises and bizarre
statements, comfortable in the knowledge that these stakeholders are
unlikely to hit them where it hurts.

A global arms embargo and a UN Security Council Commission of Inquiry into
crimes against humanity in Burma will make this junta sit up and pay
attention. It will be the catalyst for a type of engagement that is based
on dialogue and negotiation.

While Sen Webb basks in the glory—and I don’t grudge him that—let’s not
forget that the essential problems in Burma have not dissipated in any
way. Over 2,000 political prisoners, Suu Kyi included, remain imprisoned.
The military has stepped up its brutal atrocities in Eastern Burma,
terrorizing hundreds of villages with rape, torture, forced labor and
death.

Since July 27, over 10,000 civilians have been forcibly displaced from 500
villages in central Shan State. Attacks in Karen State forced over 6,000
civilians to seek refuge in Thailand. Refugees continue to flee their
homes every day. This prolongation of one of the world’s longest-running
wars is likely to get worse as the regime tightens the screws on ethnic
ceasefire and non-ceasefire groups in an effort to completely control the
2010 elections.

Oh, and let’s not forget the chilling evidence of this regime’s chummy
cooperation with North Korea: tunnels, long-range ballistic missile
technology and a nuclear program.

Sen Webb must seriously consider: if this is the damage the regime can do
without access to US resources, what would be possible if sanctions are
dismantled willy-nilly?

It’s time to refocus our energies on the original checklist for Burma: the
unconditional release of all political prisoners; the cessation of
military hostilities in ethnic areas; and a tripartite review of the 2008
constitution.

Debbie Stothard is coordinator of Alternative Asean Network on Burma
(Altsean).

____________________________________

August 17, Heritage
Bad deal on Burma

In exchange for the release of John Yettaw, the American who provided
Burma’s ruling junta an excuse to extend the house arrest of democracy
icon Aung San Suu Kyi, Senator Jim Webb provided the junta an opportunity
for saturation media coverage of what will pass there as US endorsement of
its rule.

This was a simple transaction. Junta chief Than Shwe got what he wanted,
and he gave up something (someone) that had already served the regime’s
purpose. It will not lead to a new opening in US-Burma relations - unless
of course, the US is prepared to pare its objectives in a way that ensures
the regime meets them. As Senator Webb has indicated before, this would
entail accepting elections next year under a sham constitution. And, as
things now stand, a lowered standard would also have to allow for the
continued detention of Suu Kyi, detention of more than 2000 other
political prisoners, and Suu Kyi’s prohibition from competing in the
elections. That is not a road map. It is capitulation.

The Obama Administration claims it simply gave Senator Webb the customary
support the State Department gives to any traveling Senator. Maybe so. But
it may also be a no-lose effort to facilitate a change in policy without
really taking a stand in favor of it. “Engagement” and meetings with
dictators do not constitute policy unto themselves; they are diplomatic
tools. In the most recent expression of policy, the House, Senate, and
White House just weeks ago renewed sweeping sanctions against Burma. Until
the Administration takes a clear stand on a new policy, Burma, the world,
and concerned Americans can only assume that the policy of bringing
maximum pressure to bear on Burma’s ruling generals stands.

The Administration has amply demonstrated that it can secure the release
of Americans in difficult circumstances abroad. The verdict is still out
on whether it can secure American national interests in the process. Deals
like this are a bad sign. Either it is allowing others to drive US policy
or it is confusing what is essentially consular work with foreign policy.
It is time for the Administration to lay its cards on the table, complete
its review of America’s Burma policy and let Washington fight it out.

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/08/17/bad-deal-on-burma/

____________________________________

August 16, The New Light of Myanmar
Politics is to do real possibility - Maung Nwe Sit

Today, the expression "politics is to do real possibility" is very
popular, which somewhat warn terrorist-cum-politicians against doing as
they wish. The phrase should have gained wide currency earlier. Certain
political groups are still clinging on to their impractical campaigns,
thus getting the people into trouble.

Politics is the concern of a nation and its people. And it is an
altruistic service. However, in practice, political groups, instead of
prioritizing the public interest had been putting power in the fore and
sticking to armed insurrection since the post-independence period in 1948.

That indicated independence was closely followed by rivalry for power
among political groups, instead of exercising politics with farsightedness
in a pragmatic way in the interest of the people.

Once British colonialists intruded on the soil of the nation the people of
all national races resisted against the colonialists, arming themselves
with whatever arms-they got. Patriotic people got involved in battles to
save the nation from falling to alien subjugation. British colonialists
had to make a reinforcement of tens of thousands of soldiers from abroad
and suppressed the resistant campaigns with modern weapons. Myanmar
revolutionaries were equipped strongly with patriotic spirit and
nationalistic fervour along with military prowess, but they did not have
modern weapons. So, they could not drive the colonialists out of the
territory of the nation.

In 1906, patriots formed Young Men's Buddhist Association (YMBA) and held
talks to revive national and religious affairs and made demands that
colonialists take off foot wares before getting onto the platforms of
pagodas. They launched a variety of anti-colonialist movements with the
stance that they never remained indifferent in the colonial rule. They
started the independence drive with possible campaigns.

In 1920, Myanmar associations were combined into the General Council of
Burmese Associations (GCBA) to improve the nationalistic spirit. They made
demands and got involved in anti-government campaigns, submitting public
grievances. Those events served as evidence that they launched possible
steps only.

During the Accusing of Doh Bamar Asiayon (Our Burmese Association) formed
in 1930, Myanmar saw a series of anti-colonialist struggles including the
campaigns of workers for instance Oilfield Workers' Uprising and the
campaigns of farmers such as Peasants' Uprising led by Saya San. Myanmar
farmers demonstrated their bravery in the Peasants' Uprising and could
open a new page of the Myanmar's historical background of
anti-colonialists campaigns. However, the uprising went beyond the
possibility, so it was suppressed later.

Thirty Comrades, the Burma Independence Army (B IA), the Burma Defence
Army (BDA) and the Patriotic Force of Burma managed to drive out the
colonialists who were coping with many problems triggered by World War II.
The country could accelerate the independence struggles. Myanmar patriots
also drove out Fascist troops. Due to the national level participation of
the entire people, independence struggles triumphed victory in the end.

To oust a ruling government through mass protests or an armed revolt is a
just and correct fight if the rulers are aliens. It is because the people
are responsible for throwing off the yoke of foreign rule for
independence. In that regard, possibility is to be taken into
consideration, and the people have to generate possibility.

In an independent country, the people of the country will form a
government. If opposition parties incite mass demonstrations and turn to
armed insurgency, they oppose possibility. If they win public support and
prioritize public interest and they are right, it is possible for them to
come to power. And they will win the vast majority of votes in elections.
If the other parties oppose the winning party, those who suffer evil
consequences are the people. Without possibility, a party cannot come to
power, and all it is doing results nothing more than troubles to the
people.

An armed revolt against colonialists is quite different from rivalry for
power among national people. To fight colonialists is national revolution,
but an armed conflict between two groups of national people is "exploiting
the people of own race".

If a political party wants to serve the interest of the nation, it has to
put trust in people's power and avoid exploiting the people of own race,
relying on external elements, troubling the people, and making the public
impoverished to the liking of foreign masters. If it does not win massive
support of the people, there is not possibility for it to come to power.

The expressions foreign countries are claiming now such as democracy,
human rights and freedom are, indeed, a bait. If the people take the bait
for democracy, they will lose their lives.

Military powers claimed that they waged wars on Vietnam, Korea, Serbia
(Yugoslav), Somali, Iraq, Afghanistan, and many other countries in Asia,
Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and island countries for democracy,
human rights, humanitarianism and freedom. In the pragmatic world, those
countries became neo-colonies in spite of the United Nations having
decolonized. It is global knowledge that the colonialists got economic
gains, whereas the colonies were reduced to ashes.

Accusing that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, the US invaded the
country. And it gave several reasons such as to search WMDs, to help Iraqi
people enjoy freedom, to remove a tyrant like Saddam Hussein, and to
introduce democracy to the Middle East including Iraq. So far, some
700,000 Iraqi civilians have died, millions of civilians are injured and
millions of Iraqi people fled abroad to take refuge. A large number of
houses, bridges and buildings have been ravaged. The country has invaded
Iraq for more than 6 years, but it cannot make any positive change in the
nation. The only change is that the US has taken the region under its
control, exploiting oil at will.

Afghanistan war was similar to Iraq war. The US has invaded Afghanistan
for nearly 8 years, giving a reason to arrest Osama bin Laden under an
article on terrorism. It has not arrested Osama bin Laden yet because it
has a plan to control a strategic country like Afghanistan. Now, the
inferno of Afghanistan war has spread to Pakistan. The death toll of
Afghans has reached more than 8000. No citizen of the country wants such
democracy. They want real democracy based on the innate nature of their
country, public desire, and history of their country. Colonialists invade
and then exploit other countries, and that is possibility for them. They
are militarily strong, they wield veto power in the United Nations in
order that it cannot take action against them. So, it is high time world
countries and world people generated possibility to stop the colonialist
countries from wielding hegemony over the world.

There has been a possibility in Myanmar: the 2010 election due to be held
in accordance with the State constitution (2008). Then, a session of the
Pyidaungsu Hluttaw formed with people's representatives will be held and
Myanmar will be built into a modern, developed and democratic nation after
forming the governing bodies led by the President, and other central
organs.

The people will cast votes with national causes in the 2010 election to
elect people's representatives. Any candidates, political parties or
independent candidates may be elected if they uphold the public interest
and carry out tasks in line with the State constitution. That is real
possibility.

Those candidates using tactics to cause public outrage, subversive ways in
complicity with foreign masters, outlaw ways, and terrorists ways cannot
win even a single vote.

Today, the people favour peace and stability. They want to see development
of the motherland rich in natural resources and emergence of a
discipline-flourishing democratic nation. If a political party really
loves the people, it has to prioritize public desire and try to win the
trust and reliance of the people.

The Union of Myanmar is an independent country with national unity and
internal peace that is implementing the State's seven-step Road Map one by
one. The government has showed its benevolent attitude towards the people,
so the country is now enjoying development gradually. The State Peace and
Development Council Office's letter No 04/Na Ya Ka (Oo) La Nga Hka and
04/Na Ya Ka (Oo) La Nga Hka1 dated 10th August 2009 issued to commute half
of three years rigourous imprisonment to the accused Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,
Daw Khin Khin Win and Ma Win Ma Ma who got involved in the crime committed
by a US citizen, to permit them to reside in the residence, and to enable
them to enjoy pardon if they display good conduct is a testament to the
government's ardent desire of smooth transition to democracy, removing
grudge against each other, ensuring State stability, and respect to the
founding father General Aung San.

Therefore, I would like to invite all political groups to respect public
decision, enjoy the opportunities generated with good will by- the
government, choose the path to democracy paved in accordance with the
cosnstitution by the people, and do not let themselves to be swayed by the
political tricks of colonialists and axe-handles and take to the way of
Myanmar democracy, that is real possibility.