BurmaNet News, August 27, 2009

[Editor]

August 27, 2009 Issue #3785


INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar's Suu Kyi to file appeal on case next week
Mizzima News: Opposition activists launch yellow campaign
Irrawaddy: Thein Htay: Burma’s terminator?


ON THE BORDER
AP: Ethnic group in Myanmar said to break cease-fire

BUSINESS / TRADE
AP: Myanmar activist says China ignores junta's graft
Xinhua: More India companies to invest in Myanmar this year

INTERNATIONAL
VOA: Burmese exile government urges Washington to stay firm on sanctions
AFP: US man wept 'every day' over Suu Kyi trial

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Webb’s misguided views – Pyinna Zawta
Irrawaddy: No turning back – Aung Zaw
Reuters: Will polls bring change to army-ruled Myanmar?




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 27, Associated Press
Myanmar's Suu Kyi to file appeal on case next week

Yangon – Lawyers for Myanmar's Aung San Suu Kyi said today they will file
an appeal next week against the criminal conviction that put the democracy
leader under house arrest for 18 more months.

The lawyers met for two hours today afternoon with 64-year-old Nobel
laureate to finalise details of her appeal, Nyan Win, one of the lawyers,
said.

He declined to reveal details of the legal brief, but said it would be
submitted to the Divisional Court in Yangon either Monday or Tuesday.

A district court on August 11 found Suu Kyi guilty of violating the terms
of her earlier detention by sheltering an uninvited American visitor at
her home. The court convicted her to three years in prison with hard
labor, but that sentence was reduced to 18 months of house arrest by order
of military junta leader Senior Gen Than Shwe.

____________________________________

August 27, Mizzima News
Opposition activists launch yellow campaign – Myint Maung

New Delhi – With the second anniversary of the ‘Saffron Revolution’ round
the corner, 10 opposition activists launched a campaign in Rangoon last
Tuesday to pay tribute to monks, who took part in chanting Metta sutra two
years ago.

The activists donned yellow symbols during their weekly so-called 'Tuesday
prayer campaign', conducted in Shwedagon pagoda for the release of
democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

"September is drawing close. So we wore yellow ribbons, yellow hairpins,
yellow flowers and yellow dresses as symbols, while paying tribute to the
‘Saffron Revolution’ during our prayer campaign. We prayed for the release
of our leader," Naw Ohn Hla, one of the campaigners, told Mizzima.

Officials of the Burmese military junta keep a hawk’s eye on the prayer
campaign, suspicious and apprehensive that it would again become part of a
growing mass movement against the regime. There have been several
instances when campaigners have been arrested.

The activists plan to forge ahead with the yellow campaign with their
prayer meetings and prayer services at pagodas every Tuesday until
September 25.

"This campaign has started in Rangoon. Other towns and cities can join us.
It (junta) cannot do anything to us for just wearing these yellow symbols.
So we request all to join us. I'd like to say do not forget our religion
and sasana," Naw Ohn Hla said.

Thousands of monks hit the streets in September 2007 and chanted Metta
Sutra in Rangoon and other cities. But the security forces came down
heavily in a brutal crackdown, killing, maiming and arresting at random,
breaking up the demonstrations.

The junta, however, claimed 10 people, including some monks were killed
during the movement, but the opposition forces felt that the actual death
toll was much higher than the official statistics dished out.

According to the Thai based 'Association for Assistance to Political
Prisoners-Burma' (AAPP-B), formed by former Burmese political prisoners,
over 200 monks were arrested during the demonstration. More than 2,100
political prisoners are languishing in jails throughout Burma, AAPP said.

Prayer campaigns were also launched in other cities such as Mandalay,
Meiktila, Yemethin, Yenanchaung and Pegu by activists yesterday, calling
for the release of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other
political prisoners.

Meanwhile, activists lodged a complaint with the junta supremo Senior Gen.
Than Shwe by sending a letter, which says that the local authorities tried
to threaten the monasteries where the Naw Ohn Hla led group were
conducting prayers and offerings were being made to Buddhist monks.
____________________________________

August 27, Irrawaddy
Thein Htay: Burma’s terminator? – Min Lwin

To win respect and rapid promotion in the Burmese military you have to
play hardball. Maj-Gen Thein Htay, who is deputy-chief of Defense Industry
l, is one of the toughest players on the field.  Military insiders say
that Thein Htay has played a key role in the modernization of the armed
forces, and he is one of the prime promoters of the idea of purchasing
missiles.

If reports are true that Burma is trying to acquire nuclear weapons, then
he is likely to be a key player in that effort.

Last year, he accompanied Gen Thura Shwe Mann, the regime’s No 3 general,
on his clandestine trip to North Korea. During the visit, he and Shwe Mann
visited several arms factories and a military hardware deal with the
Communist regime was signed.

Known to be an extreme nationalist, Thein Htay didn’t serve long at the
infantry battalion level, and he was quickly given an important position
at the military industry ministry because of his extensive knowledge of
the weapons industry.

Thein Htay received special attention when he advised junta leader Snr-Gen
Than Shwe on how to upgrade the Burmese armed forces. He received a “jump”
promotion when Than Shwe grew more serious about buying missiles and
missile technology after a series of border skirmishes with Thai forces in
2001-2002.

In 1998, Thein Htay was a lieutenant-colonel on the general staff. In
2006, he was promoted to major general, followed by deputy-chief of
Defense Industry 1—a sign that he had the trust of Than Shwe.

Sources say that the junta leader sometimes comes to weapons tests when
Thein Htay demonstrates newly bought missiles or other weapons.

Defense Industry 1, one of Burma’s main military industrial complexes,
operates 22 manufacturing or procurement facilities, many located on the
west bank of the Irrawaddy River west of the Pegu mountain range. Several
weapon testing grounds are located near Pegu and Pyi.

Military sources said that Thein Htay has been involved in the upgrading
and creation of military facilities, including tunnels for missiles,
aircraft and even naval ships. He has also expanded technological
assistance of Russia, China, North Korea and Singapore.

Under Thein Htay’s command, military factories manufacture conventional
weapons, including automatic rifles, light machine guns and landmines.
Sources said that at least two military facilities are believed to be
involved in refining uranium.

In earlier decades, the Defense Ministry purchased most of its arms and
ammunition under contract with the Federal Republic of Germany’s
state-owned Fritz Werner, according to defense analysts.

Burma has procured small arms, jet fighters and naval ships from the West
particularly the US and EU countries. However, after the 1988 democracy
uprising, Western countries imposed arms embargo and stopped selling arms
to Burma.

Thein Htay often travels abroad to look for new sources of weapons and
ammunition, upgrade missiles, defensive rockets, anti-aircraft radar and
command and control technology.

Should Burma be trying to acquire a nuclear capability, Thein Htay and the
Defense Ministry will be key players in that effort.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

August 27, Associated Press
Ethnic group in Myanmar said to break cease-fire

BANGKOK — Fighting reportedly broke out Thursday between an ethnic militia
and government security forces in northeastern Myanmar, breaching a
two-decade cease-fire.

Several minorities living in military-ruled Myanmar's border areas have
continued their long struggles for autonomy despite cease-fires with the
military regime that seized power in 1988.

Fighters for the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army — representing
the Kokang minority — on Thursday attacked a police post along the border
with China near the town of Laogai, according to the U.S. Campaign for
Burma.

The Washington-based lobbying group said several police officers were
killed and the rebels temporarily occupied the post.

The Kachin News Group, an online news agency that covers the Kachin
minority in northern Myanmar, also reported the attack as well as several
other clashes.

Reports of the fighting could not be independently confirmed.

Tensions between the Kokang and the government have risen recently after
the ethnic group defied an order to allow its guerrillas to be
incorporated into a border guard force under army command.

The junta plans an election next year, the first since 1990's abortive
polls, the result of which were ignored by the military when the National
League for Democracy party won by a landslide. The military has been
anxious to assure stability ahead of the vote.

On Wednesday, Myanmar ethnic groups and Chinese media reported that
thousands of people fled into China this month after tensions flared
between the Kokang and government.

Some 10,000 left the Kokang area in Myanmar's northeastern Shan state
between Aug. 7 and Aug. 12 after a military confrontation, The Chongqing
Evening Post reported.

The trigger for the confrontation was an Aug. 8 raid on the home of Kokang
leader Peng Jiashen — also known as Phon Kyar Shin — ostensibly to look
for illegal drugs.

Peng's troops in the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army began
mobilizing, but were forced out of Laogai on Tuesday by government
soldiers and members of a breakaway Kokang faction.

According to the U.S. Campaign for Burma, Peng issued a statement Thursday
calling for talks with the government and for newly deployed troops to
withdraw from the area.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

August 27, Associated Press
Myanmar activist says China ignores junta's graft – Jim Gomez

MANILA Philippines – China and other governments with lucrative business
deals in Myanmar are ignoring massive corruption by its ruling military
junta, a pro-democracy activist said Thursday.

Ka Hsaw Wa said corruption has become the second worst problem in Myanmar
after widespread human rights violations and afflicts all levels of its
government.

He spoke to The Associated Press in Manila, where he was named one of six
recipients of the prestigious Ramon Magsaysay award, considered Asia's
version of the Nobel Prize, for documenting human rights and environmental
abuses in his country.

Corruption in Myanmar should be dealt with urgently, since most people
struggle to afford three meals a day, Ka Hsaw Wa said. But obtaining
evidence is almost impossible, he said.

"It's simply economic plunder," Ka Hsaw Wa said, adding that "99.9 percent
of the ruling junta, from a normal soldier to the top generals, are
completely corrupt."

He said corruption within the military should be apparent to friendly
foreign governments like China, but they look the other way.

"We won't turn a blind eye to that (corruption), of course," said Ethan
Sun, a spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in Manila. He added, however, that
trade and economic cooperation "benefit the peoples of both countries."

China has often supported the junta against international pressure in the
past.

Most generals live in sprawling, heavily guarded compounds which are
off-limits to the public, he said. When a secret video of the lavish 2006
wedding of senior Gen. Than Shwe's daughter surfaced on YouTube, it caused
outrage in his country.

International watchdogs have consistently ranked Myanmar, also known as
Burma, among the world's most corrupt nations. Transparency
International's 2008 list put it next to last, ahead of only Somalia.

The junta does not publicly respond to accusations of corruption, but it
has launched anti-corruption drives mostly targeting low-level offenses. A
call to the embassy in Manila was not answered Thursday.

"A lot of countries want to swallow Burma alive, it's so rich in natural
resources," Ka Hsaw Wa said. "But they try not to see (corruption) in a
way that they can do business there."

While the Myanmar government officially restricts logging, middle-level
military officers have cut down huge swaths of rain forests for personal
profit, he said.

Ka Hsaw Wa, a member of Myanmar's ethnic Karen minority, was a 17-year-old
student activist when the government violently suppressed 1988
pro-democracy demonstrations. After his arrest, he fled to the jungle
where he witnessed atrocities committed against villagers, the Ramon
Magsaysay Award Foundation said.

EarthRights, the nonprofit group he co-founded, filed a case in the United
States in 1996 against the U.S.-based oil company Unocal for alleged
complicity in human rights and environmental abuses committed by Myanmar's
military in the building of the Yadana gas pipeline. After 10 years of
litigation, Unocal agreed to compensate the 11 petitioners.

EarthRights also runs a school in Thailand that trains young people from
Myanmar and other countries in nonviolent social change.

____________________________________

August 27, Xinhua
More India companies to invest in Myanmar this year

More India companies are to invest in Myanmar's information technology
(IT) and education sectors this year, a local weekly The Myanmar Post
reported Thursday.

Being one of the IT power countries, India is willing to support Myanmar
in the advancement of IT sector if Myanmar side propose for the
assistance, the report quoting the India embassy, adding that India has
also planned to grant more scholarships to Myanmar students who desire to
pursue their further education in the country.

India has so far awarded scholarships to over 150 Myanmar students, it added.

During last year, Myanmar and India cooperated in implementation of
setting up 11 centers for enhancement of IT skill in key cities of Yangon,
Mandalay and others.

The project, implemented by the Centre for Development Advanced Computing
(CDAC) of India and the state-run Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications
(MPT), started at the end of last year and with regard to the project,
Myanmar sent 100 government servants to India to undergo the training.

Meanwhile, Myanmar and India also cooperated in implementing cross-border
optical fiber link between the two countries to boost information link
which started in December 2006, according to the earlier report.

The 640-kilometer-long Myanmar-India optical fiber link project which
worths of 7 million U.S. dollars connects India's northeastern border town
of Moreh and Myanmar's second largest city of Mandalay, passes through six
cities of Tamu, Kampatwa, Kyi Gone, Shwebo, Monywa and Sagaing.

Along the fiber link, ADSL+2 system with 7,000 lines are being installed
in 80 locations including Yangon, Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw.

Myanmar official statistics show that Myanmar-India bilateral trade
reached 951.3 million U.S. dollars in 2008-09 with Myanmar's exports to
India accounting for 805.1 million U.S. dollars and its imports from India
146.2 million dollars.

India stands as Myanmar's 4th largest trading partner after Thailand,
China and Singapore and also Myanmar's second largest export market after
Thailand, absorbing 25 percent of its total exports.

The Myanmar compiled figures also show that India's contracted investment
in Myanmar reached 219.57 million U.S. dollars as of January 2008, of
which 137 million were drawn into the oil and gas sector in September
2007.

___________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 27, Voice of America
Burmese exile government urges Washington to stay firm on sanctions –
Daniel Schearf

A spokesman for the Burmese government in exile has urged Washington not
to hastily ease sanctions against Burma's military government. The exile
government and rights groups support U.S. engagement with Burma, but they
also want pressure for change.

A spokesman for the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma,
Zin Linn, says U.S. sanctions should stay in place until opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi is released and Burma's rulers agree to talks with the
opposition.

"All the sanctions made by the U.S. and EU will hurt directly to the
military junta, the generals, and only their cronies," he said. "Not hurt
to the ordinary peoples, because all the economic business, all the big
industries are in the hands of the generals and their relatives. No other,
ordinary people have a chance, or they have no rights to participate in
the economic sectors."

Zin Linn was responding to U.S. Senator Jim Webb's call for reducing
sanctions and further engaging Burma's rulers.

In an opinion article published this week in the New York Times newspaper,
Webb said the sanctions had only entrenched the Burmese generals and
isolated the country.

Benjamin Zawacki, a Burma researcher for Amnesty International, says
isolating a military government that is all too willing to isolate itself
is counter-productive. He says regional engagement is the only way that
changes are going to come.

"Further engagement and further pressure are not mutually exclusive
policies or tactics," said Zawacki. "And, so it needs more of both of
those things."

Zin Linn says he agrees the sanctions have not brought change. But he says
Washington must continue to pressure Burma's rulers to release Aung San
Suu Kyi and other key opposition figures if they want to see democracy in
the country.

Webb says sanctions also allow China, which does not support the measures,
to dramatically increase its economic and political influence with Burma,
which he called a "dangerous strategic imbalance."

Senator Webb earlier this month became the most senior U.S. politician to
visit Burma in a decade.

He met with Burma's reclusive military leader Than Shwe and opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi. He also secured the release of American John
Yettaw, who was sentenced to seven years hard labor for visiting Aung San
Suu Kyi without official permission.

The military government extended her house arrest by 18 months for
allowing the uninvited guest to stay two days.

The military has held Aung San Suu Kyi for 14 of the past 20 years,
drawing condemnation by much of the international community, including the
United States and the United Nations.

The National League for Democracy, which Aung San Suu Kyi leads, won
Burma's last election, in 1990, but was never allowed to take office. Many
of those elected were forced to flee the country and they have formed the
government in exile.

____________________________________

August 27, Agence France Presse
US man wept 'every day' over Suu Kyi trial

AN American jailed and later freed by Burma's military junta for swimming
to the home of pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi says he had "wept every
day" while in prison.

John Yettaw was sentenced to seven years hard labor for swimming to Suu
Kyi's home in May using a pair of homemade flippers but he was freed after
a visit by Democratic Senator Jim Webb earlier this month.

The bizarre incident led some to allege Yettaw, a devout Mormon from
Falcon Missouri, was mentally ill. It caused Suu Kyi to be placed under
house arrest for a further 18 months so she will be not be free for
elections promised by the ruling junta in 2010.

"Little did I know they were going to arrest her and put her on trial,"
Yettaw told CNN today in his first broadcast interview since he was freed,
insisting he was perfectly sane. "I wept every day. I suffered every day."

Yettaw plans to write a book about the ordeal. He said his motives were
purely humanitarian and prompted by visions that Burma's generals "were
going to murder her".

"I had a premonition. I'm going to free a political prisoner in Burma,"
the retired bus driver and Vietnam War veteran said. "It's about stopping
the killings. And that's what it was from day one... This has been her
message of peace."

Yettaw said his interest in Suu Kyi began when he was in Thailand.

"I had seen her photograph for the first time. And I instantly had a
premonition or a vision that I was - I saw myself going through a lake and
over a fence in the - and was at the back door of a house."

He then searched the internet for information about the democracy icon and
discovered "she lived next to the lake. And I got a passport or a visa,
rather, to get in. And I thought, since this has been presented to me I'm
going to make it happen".

Asked if Suu Kyi was glad to see him arrive at her home, Yettaw said:
"absolutely."

He said police interrogated him day and night for two and a half weeks
after his arrest.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 26, Irrawaddy
Webb’s misguided views – Pyinna Zawta

US Sen Jim Webb recently traveled to Burma to lean not on Burma's military
regime, but to pressure my country's democracy movement into giving up
economic sanctions—the most important tool in our struggle for freedom.

Although he emphasized the necessity of the release of Aung San Suu Kyi,
this falls far short of the demands of the US, the United Nations and the
European Union for the immediate and unconditional release of all my
country's 2,100 political prisoners.

Webb's ignorance of the situation in my country was revealed his book "A
Time to Fight" in which he came down squarely on the side of the
oppressors in Burma. He wrote about the demonstrations which took place in
Burma in 2007, led by Buddhist monks such as myself.

"If Westerners had remained in the country this moment might never have
occurred, because it is entirely possible that conditions may have
improved rather than deteriorated."

Webb's statement is either shockingly naïve or willfully misleading. We
Buddhist monks, who Webb discounts as a "throng," marched for an end to
military dictatorship in Burma not because we wanted marginal improvements
in our economy. We marched because we believe in freedom and democracy and
are willing to make sacrifices to reach those goals.

Webb claims that the Burmese people would benefit from interaction with
the outside world, as if we need to be condescendingly "taught" by
Americans about our rights and responsibilities. Had Webb spent some time
with real Burmese people apart from the military regime and others who
share his views, he would better understand the sacrifice we made for
democracy, and he would know that we Burmese value the longstanding
support we have had from the US Congress.

Webb, an author, has proven extremely manipulative in his use of language,
calling for "engagement" and "interaction" instead of sanctions. His
implication is that the Burmese people are solely set on sanctions and
confrontation—the exact same language used by Burma's military regime,
which couldn't be further from the truth. The truth is that the world is
not as black and white as Webb would have it. We want the United States to
talk to and negotiate with Burma's military regime, but this shouldn't
preclude increasing international pressure. The US appears to be able to
carry out this policy with other countries such as in North Korea where it
is willing to talk to the North Koreans while at the same time increasing
sanctions if Pyongyang doesn't respond. Webb is intent on driving a wedge
into this process in the case of Burma. We must choose, he explains,
between sanctions and engagement—there can be no sophisticated strategy,
only complete involvement or none at all.

What Webb proposes—lifting sanctions on Burma—translates to basically
handing over the Burmese peoples' natural resources to rapacious
multinational corporations, particularly Big Oil.  If the US lifts
sanctions on Burma, there will be a rush of companies into Burma intent on
looting my country's natural heritage and the benefits of such
"engagement" will flow directly to the military regime.

In terms of human rights, Webb has remained focused only on Suu Kyi's
freedom and ability to participate in scheduled elections in Burma, never
mind the fact that the Burmese regime has already rigged the elections so
that no matter who participates there will be many more decades of
complete military rule.

The new constitution is an air-tight document that gives no room
whatsoever for reform from within. At the same time, Webb has completely
ignored the purposeful, massive human rights violations carried out by
Burma's military regime. The human rights nightmare in Burma includes the
recruitment of tens of thousands of child soldiers, pressing hundreds of
thousands of Burmese into forced labor and the widespread rape of ethnic
minority women.

Luckily for the Burmese people, Webb is not the only US senator. Recently,
the US Senate voted unanimously to extend sanctions on Burma. President
Obama signed the bill into law.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is a student of politics and more
likely to examine the facts on the ground instead of falling for blanket
ideological generalizations. While Webb may seek to sell out Aung San Suu
Kyi, our courageous Buddhist monks, and all the people of Burma, we hold
out hope that Secretary Clinton and President Obama will take a more
nuanced view in formulating policy toward Burma.

In particular, the US should seek to negotiate with Burma's military
regime—but, at the same time, carry forward along the lines of the advice
offered by South Africa's Nobel Peace Prize recipient Desmond Tutu: seek a
global arms embargo on Burma's military regime, start a UN Security
Council investigation into crimes against humanity committed by the
regime, and begin the process to full implementation of financial
sanctions against the regime and its cronies.

Webb is now despised by the people of Burma. If he succeeds in achieving a
shift in US policy to abandon sanctions, he will have secured his place in
history as one of the
most important supporters of Than Swe's military dictatorship.

U Pyinya Zawta, Buddhist monk, was actively involved in the 1988
demonstrations. He was sentenced to three years in prison in 1990 and
again sentenced to seven years in 1998. He is one of the founding members
of the All Burma Monks' Alliance (ABMA) which lead the 2007 Saffron
Revolution. He is now in exile in New York after fleeing the country due
to the threat of arrest.

____________________________________

August 27, Irrawaddy
No turning back – Aung Zaw

It’s no secret that the regime in Burma wants to repair its frosty
relationship with America. It would especially like to see the lifting of
US sanctions, which have an impact not only on the general population, but
are also hampering the junta leaders’ ambition to build a modern armed
forces.

Historically, there is little reason for the two countries to regard each
other as enemies. Despite the US-backed occupation of northern Shan State
by the Chinese Kuomintang in the 1950s, Burmese military commanders have
never felt the same hostility toward the US that they reserve for Burma’s
former colonial masters, the British.

Burma’s current rulers have not forgotten that their predecessor, Gen Ne
Win, was a guest in the White House just a few years after seizing power.
At the time, the US was keen to get a foothold in a country on China’s
doorstep. Ironically, when Ne Win killed unarmed students in 1970s, it was
Beijing, not Washington, that expressed outrage.

Fearing Communist China’s growing influence in the region, the US had no
qualms about forming close military ties with Burma. For decades, top
officers in the Burmese armed forces attended West Point and the Command
and General Staff College, while key members of Burma’s most feared spy
agency were trained by the CIA.

Washington was also generous with its military hardware. Until the late
1980s, Burma’s army and air force employed US jet fighters, helicopters
and M-16 assault rifles. Bell helicopters supplied by the US to help Burma
wage a war on drugs were also used in operations against ethnic
insurgents. And when Burmese riot police fired on students in 1988, they
were armed with American-made M-16s.

But it was at this point that US-Burma relations rapidly deteriorated.
After decades of ignoring Burma’s poor human rights record and political
repression, Washington suddenly became a staunch champion of the country’s
brutally suppressed pro-democracy movement and an outspoken critic of the
junta that seized power in 1988.

Now, after two decades of treating Burma’s rulers like pariahs, Washington
is reviewing its policy toward the country as part of President Barack
Obama’s new, less confrontational approach to dealing with the world’s
dictators. Even as he tells “those who cling to power through corruption
and deceit and the silencing of dissent” that they are “on the wrong side
of history,” Obama says that he is ready to offer his hand to those who
are “willing to unclench their fist.”

The Burmese generals were quick to read this as a sign that the US was
likely to soften its stance toward them, and were only too happy to share
Obama’s conciliatory message with the people of Burma in state-run
media—except for the part about the need for dictators to “unclench their
fist” if they want to enjoy better relations with the US, which was deemed
too “sensitive” by the junta’s censors.

In August, the generals finally got their chance to show the world that
they, too, were ready to extend their hand in friendship. The highly
publicized visit of US Sen Jim Webb was lauded in the state-run press as
“a success for both sides as well as the first step to promotion of the
relations between the two countries.”

A commentary in The New Light of Myanmar, a regime mouthpiece, noted that
Webb did not act like a typical “neocolonialist” or “loud-mouthed bully.”
However, it cautiously added that Webb’s visit was just “the first step
toward marching to a 1,000-mile destination.”

What was most remarkable about this encounter was how starkly Webb’s
reception contrasted with that of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who
traveled to Naypyidaw in June but was denied a meeting with Aung San Suu
Kyi. The difference signaled the junta’s eagerness to cut a deal with
Washington.

The immediate outcome of Webb’s visit was the release of John Yettaw, the
American who had been sentenced to seven years in prison for illegally
entering Suu Kyi’s residential compound in May. Meanwhile, Suu Kyi and her
two live-in aides are now serving a further 18 months under house arrest
because of Yettaw’s actions.

To the junta’s way of thinking, all of this makes perfectly good sense.
Just as Suu Kyi’s trial and conviction were obviously politically
motivated, Yettaw’s release was clearly a political gambit intended to
improve the regime’s chances of repairing ties with the US.

But the regime is going to have to go a lot further if it expects the
Obama administration to meet it halfway. Following Webb’s visit, the White
House issued a statement welcoming the junta’s gesture, but also urging
“the Burmese leadership in this spirit to release all the political
prisoners it is holding in detention or in house arrest, including Aung
San Suu Kyi.”

Clearly, then, Webb’s visit was not the breakthrough that he and other
champions of engagement with the regime hoped it would be. If Burma’s
rulers think they can simply return to the “good old days” when Washington
didn’t care how dictators behaved, as long as they were friendly to
America’s interests, they are mistaken. Until it makes real changes in its
behavior, the junta’s dream of rapprochement with the US will remain a
“1,000-mile destination.”

[This article appears in September issue of The Irrawaddy.]

____________________________________

August 27, Reuters
Will polls bring change to army-ruled Myanmar?

BANGKOK - Long-awaited elections are set for next year, the final
destination on Myanmar's "road map" to democracy, but it is far from clear
what civilian rule will look like after almost 50 years of army rule.

The junta has promised the vote will be free, fair and inclusive. But with
no date set, electoral laws yet to be drafted and opposition politicians
still in jail, more questions than answers surround the first elections in
the resource-rich Southeast Asian nation in 20 years.

What is not in doubt, analysts say, is that the junta will do whatever it
takes to ensure that real control over the former British colony will
remain with the military or its proxies.

"Future governments might be civilianized, but they certainly won't be
civilian," said David Steinberg, a veteran Myanmar analyst at Georgetown
University in Washington.

"The military will still have ultimate control. They believe that in the
long term, they are the only institution capable of keeping the country
together."

A glance at the new constitution leaves little doubt the military will run
the show in the former Burma, and few expect the Burmese people will get
much say.

The military has reserved 25 percent of house seats for itself, as well as
control over key ministries and appointments. The chief of the armed
forces will outrank the elected president and be able to assume power "in
times of emergency."

Critics have therefore derided the seven-stage "road map" as a blueprint
to legitimize military rule and ensure it retains a strong grip on power.

SANCTIONS TO REMAIN

The West remains skeptical about polls and is unlikely to lift economic
sanctions on the country, especially if a "democratic" Myanmar differs
little from the army-ruled version.

Some analysts are not completely dismissive.

"It won't be any different to start with, but for the people, the hope is
that something good will come out of this process in the years to come,"
said Win Min, a Harvard-educated Burmese exile and lecturer at Thailand's
Payap University.

Steve Vickers, a regional analyst at FTI-International Risk, agreed: "I
see some possibility of some gentle progress depending on what happens in
this election or post this election. I'm not as gloom and doom as
everybody else."

Some analysts even accept that the military's involvement in the
democratic process might be necessary in the medium term as it is the only
institution in Myanmar with any real political experience.

The opposition parties have played no part in national politics. Civil
servants and military officials are often better educated and at least
have experience of government. Some provincial military officials have
earned a certain respect.

"Their involvement is not entirely a bad thing and the military will be an
essential part of the transition of power," said Trevor Wilson, a former
Australian ambassador to Myanmar.

"There's probably no choice, but it could be stabilizing to have an
arrangement like this for the next 10 years or so."

The extent to which opposition parties and ethnic groups will play a part
in the process remains murky, with tight controls likely to prevent anyone
deemed a threat to the junta from running for office.

Their role will probably be restricted to sitting in the 440-member
national assembly, which analysts expect to be dominated by civil
servants, junta cronies and retired generals, serving only as a rubber
stamp for the army's policies.

NLD SPLIT

The opposition parties have not yet said if they will run -- even if they
are allowed to take part. The National League for Democracy (NLD), which
has been at the forefront of the pro-democracy struggle in Myanmar under
detained Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, is split over whether it will
enter the electoral process.

It won the last election in 1990 by a landslide but was denied power by
the army. Some of its old guard have been unable to move on from that and
still want the junta to recognize its victory.

Insiders say younger members are urging the senior party leadership to
enter the election, fearing a boycott would erode the NLD's relevance and
credibility.

Many analysts say the NLD, and other opposition parties, are regarded more
by the people as alternatives to an oppressive regime than as political
heavyweights capable of returning the once thriving country to its former
glory.

Western powers and even Myanmar's regional allies have warned that the
legitimacy of the elections will be questioned unless Suu Kyi and the
estimated 2,100 political prisoners are freed to take part.

Even so, analysts say the polls offer a window of opportunity for Myanmar
to embark on reform.

"It would be inappropriate and unreasonable for everyone to dismiss this
process completely," added Steinberg, who has studied Myanmar since the
military seized power in a 1962 coup.

"Whatever happens, it has to be better than the last 50 years."

(Reporting by Bangkok Newsroom; Editing by Alan Raybould and Bill Tarrant)