BurmaNet News, September 30, 2009

[Editor]

September 30, 2009 Issue #3809

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Suu Kyi party says no pre-conditions to junta-US talks
New York Times: Elder of Burmese opposition grapples with election dissonance
Kachin News Group: Chemical laced mortars to be used against ethnic rebels

ON THE BORDER
Kaladan Press: Authorities destroy 100 unregistered refugee homes
DVB: Monk urges peace in eastern Burma

INTERNATIONAL
Reuters: Lifting Myanmar sanctions now would be mistake: U.S.

OPINION / OTHER
New York Times: Talking with Myanmar – Editorial
Weekly Standard (USA): Dozens of monks crash Webb's junta love-in
Wall Street Journal: Burma wild cards – Kelly Currie
Irrawaddy: China’s dilemma: Junta oil and Wa refugees? – Saw Yan Naing
Huffington Post (USA): As an American is tortured in Burma, where's the
outrage? – Jonathan Hulland


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INSIDE BURMA

September 30, Agence France Presse
Suu Kyi party says no pre-conditions to junta-US talks

Yangon – Myanmar's opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi said today
there should be no pre-conditions for the United States starting a
dialogue with the ruling junta.

The US announced Monday it was starting a dialogue with the military-led
nation, although it insisted it would keep sanctions in place until the
regime makes progress on democracy.

"Starting a dialogue between two countries is good. Daw Suu has said so,"
said Nyan Win, a spokesman for the National League for Democracy (NLD).
Daw is a term of respect in Myanmar.

"It will be the best if there are no pre-conditions in a dialogue," he
told AFP.

The US State Department said Tuesday that a senior US diplomatic official
was set to meet with a delegation from Myanmar on the margins of the UN
General Assembly meeting in New York.

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September 30, New York Times
Elder of Burmese opposition grapples with election dissonance

Yangon, Myanmar — U Win Tin, Myanmar’s longest-serving political prisoner,
was tormented, tortured and beaten by his captors in the notorious Insein
Prison for nearly two decades. Now, at 80, he faces a new kind of torment:
watching colleagues from his political party decide whether to play by the
rules of the junta that put him behind bars.

Released in September 2008 after more than 19 years in prison, Mr. Win Tin
remains remarkably spry, upbeat, and politically engaged. A co-founder of
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, he is a vocal
opponent of taking part in national elections set for next year. The vote,
along with the implementation of a new constitution, would introduce a
shared civilian and military government after four and a half decades of
military rule.

But while the constitution, passed in a disputed referendum held amid the
widespread devastation of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, allows elected
representation, it accords special powers to the military in what the
junta calls “disciplined democracy.” Many critics call it a sham.

“The election can mean nothing as long as it activates the 2008
constitution, which is very undemocratic,” Mr. Win Tin said in a recent
interview.

However, his party is split over whether to boycott the election. Some
members say participating would mean losing moral claim to the party’s
landslide victory in the 1990 general election, which was ignored by the
junta. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent much of the period since under
house arrest and was sentenced to a new term of 18 months in May, has not
made her views on the issue public.

Still, the constitution offers some protections. In August, the
International Crisis Group, the Brussels-based nongovernmental
organization that seeks to prevent and resolve deadly conflicts, issued a
report recommending that opposition groups participate in the election. It
said that, although the new constitution “entrenches military power,” the
changes at least establish “shared political spaces — the legislatures and
perhaps the cabinet — where co-operation could be fostered.”

And internationally, some policies toward Myanmar are shifting.

Last week, the Obama administration announced that it would engage the
junta directly, while keeping sanctions in place. Secretary of State
Hillary Rodham Clinton called for the unconditional release of political
prisoners, including Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, and “credible, democratic
reform.”
“If the direct engagement of the U.S. will result in the release of all
political prisoners and in a revision of the 2008 Constitution, then
dialogue could begin between us and the junta, and we would consider
running in the election,” Mr. Win Tin said.

Mr. Win Tin — warm, razor-sharp and clearly determined — said the junta
might have released him, shortly before his jail sentence was complete, in
order to split the party. He admitted that “we are having some arguments
about whether we are going to participate in the elections or not,” but
insisted that there was “no conflict within the party now.”

Before being jailed for three years in 1989 after he became secretary of
the then newly formed National League for Democracy, Mr. Win Tin had
worked as a journalist. In 1991, he was given 10 more years for his
involvement in popular uprisings in 1988 that were crushed by the
military. In 1996, he was given seven more years for sending the United
Nations a petition about abuses in Myanmar prisons. Much of the time, he
was in solitary confinement.

“I could not bow down to them,” he said. “No, I could not do it. I wrote
poems to keep myself from going crazy. I did mathematics with chalk on the
floor.”

He added: “From time to time, they ask you to sign a statement that you
are not going to do politics and that you will abide by the law and so on
and so forth. I refused.”

When all his upper teeth were bashed out, he was 61. The guards refused to
let him get dentures for eight years, leaving him to gum his food.

Early this month, Mr. Win Tin was briefly detained after he wrote an op-ed
that appeared in The Washington Post, criticizing the ruling military
junta and its plans for the election next year.

“I think they are trying to intimidate me, to stop me from appearing in
the foreign media,” he said.
During the interview, on his cousin’s leafy porch in suburban Yangon,
government spies openly watched and took photographs from outside the
gate.

Never married, Mr. Win Tin talks fondly of his adopted daughter, who lives
in Sydney, Australia, after gaining political asylum 15 years ago. He has
not seen her since.

Accustomed to a spare prison diet, he has one meal early in the day and a
bit of fruit in the evening.

“I don’t want to be a burden on anyone,” he said.

Since his release, Mr. Win Tin has tried to reinvigorate the leadership of
the National League for Democracy by stepping up the frequency of meetings
and lobbying overseas governments. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi remains popular,
despite the long years of detention, but the party has been crippled by
the arrests of hundreds of the younger members, Mr. Win Tin said.

“We have some young men, but they are followed and sent to jail all the
time,” he said. “Sometimes, they go to the pagoda just for praying. They
are followed and charged with something and sentenced.” Many, he said, are
tortured.

In one kind of torture, called “riding the motorcycle,” the subject is
made to bend the knees, stand on tiptoe with sharp nails under the heels,
and make the sound of a revving engine. When the subject can no longer
maintain the tiptoe, the nails penetrate the foot.

All but one of Mr. Win Tin’s eight colleagues on the party’s central
executive committee are older than him. The committee president and
chairman, U Aung Shwe, is 92, and so infirm that he has not visited party
headquarters for months. The party secretary, U Lwin, 87, is bedridden and
paralyzed. The youngster in the group, is U Khin Maung Swe, 64.

Despite the challenges his party faces, Mr. Win Tin remains upbeat.

“We expect democracy can happen anytime,” he said, recalling the country’s
postcolonial democracy period between 1948 and 1962. “But sometimes, you
have to sacrifice everything for a long, long time. It might extend for
more than your life span.”

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September 30, Kachin News Group
Chemical laced mortars to be used against ethnic rebels

Unique mortars laced with chemical ingredients are being supplied by the
junta to its military battalions in Kachin State and Shan State, said
sources close to the army.

Burmese troops have been instructed by the army that the unique shells,
marked with red, yellow and green colours, are to be used in war on the
orders of the Burmese Army, said Burmese soldiers in Northeast Shan State.

The places where these mortar shells explode, people will show three
symptoms like feeling faint, have breathing difficulties and lose their
eyesight, the sources said.

Army sources said the mortars were received from North Korea but the
Burmese Army also has mortars made in China, Russia and India.

Two military trucks  carrying these mortars  have been despatched to the
Burmese Army’s  No. 1 Nyaung Pin military base on the mountain top near
Mongkoe in Northeast Shan State, early this month, said insiders.

During the clash between Burmese troops and Kokang rebels also called the
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) from August 27 to 29, in
rebel territory in Northeast Shan State, the Burmese Army fired the mortar
once, said sources close to the MNDAA.

After a single mortar was fired, rebels and civilians in the area had
bleeding noses and ears, said rebel sources.

During the war between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Burmese
Army in Nam Yun-Pang Sau in Hukawng Valley in western Kachin State in
1992, Burmese warplanes dropped bombs laced with chemicals on the KIA.

The effect of the bombing left some KIA soldiers finding it difficult to
walk and many had problems of physical locomotion, said KIA soldiers who
took part in the war.

Sources said the Burmese Army is planning to use more heavy mortars, tanks
and warplanes rather than a large number of soldiers in the event of war
with ethnic ceasefire groups--- KIA, United Wa State Army (UWSA) and
Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), which is expected
soon.

At the moment, China is preparing three new refugee camps for Burmese near
the Burma border in its Yunnan province. It is urging its citizens in east
of Burma to return home, according to the Chinese media and border
sources.
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ON THE BORDER

September 30, Kaladan Press
Authorities destroy 100 unregistered refugee homes

Kutupalong, Bangladesh – The authorities of the registered refugee camp
(Kutupalong) destroyed about 100 houses of unregistered refugees living
near the UNHCR registered refugee camp yesterday noon, according to a
refugee from the camp.

The Camp-in-Charge ASM Fasal Rabbi along with camp security officer Sub
Inspector (SI) Moonir and other security personnel destroyed around 100
houses of unregistered Rohingya refugees in Block A 3 in front of the MSF
and ACF office, he added.

The order was issued by the Camp-in-Charge and the security personnel
destroyed the houses, said Anwar from the unregistered refugee camp.

Jamal and Harban, the staff members of the MSF recorded the destruction of
the houses with a video camera, he said.

But, SI Moonir arrested the two staff members of the MSF, who were
recording the destruction of the refugees’ houses and took them to the
office of the Camp-in-Charge office. Later, they were released, according
to an unregistered refugee committee member, Kala Meah.

According to MSF officials, the recorded video tape was safe though the
local authorities asked for it.

It is learnt that the Camp-in-Charge and his personnel were informed by
the refugees that locals Zafor Ahmed and Kamal, son of Syed Ahmed and
their sister Ms. Saylinna had quarreled with registered refugee Sabir, son
of Gawsonngya, who was locked and kept in the house of Zafor. At the
clashes 15 persons were wounded. Since the registered refugees are under
control of the Camp-in-Charge, he was asked to intervene.  He went to the
spot where he saw some refugees’ houses were built near the road side and
in front of the MSF and ACF office. So,he then ordered the houses be
destroyed.

The SI Moonir arrested 18 persons of unregistered Rohingya refugees on
said day and kept them in the camp security box and released today after
taking 3000 Taka from them, Kalam , an unregistered refugee said.

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September 30, Democratic Voice of Burma
Monk urges peace in eastern Burma – Naw Noreen

A senior monk in eastern Burma has urged both sides of the Karen conflict
to cease killing and begin negotiations towards achieving peace in the
region.

The opposition Karen National Union (KNU) and junta proxy Democratic Karen
Buddhist Army (DKBA) should “take lessons from past consequences”, said U
Thuzana, abbot at the Myainggyingu monastery in Karen state, in a
statement issued yesterday.

The two sides should “achieve reunion and cooperation by the time of
[Karen] New Year”, in December, he said.

An unnamed DKBA officer welcomed the statement but questioned whether the
idea could be achieved.

He said that from the outset, the DKBA doesn’t want to attack the KNU but
has done so due to pressure from the Burmese government.

“We are being pressured from behind if we do not [fight]” he said. “We
Karen all have it in our heart and are determined that one day we will be
united.”

He added that he thought the majority of DKBA members would listen to the
abbot’s message. However, a source close to U Thuzana said that DKBA
members had ignored his advice about junta-backed transformation into
border guards.

The DKBA split from the KNU in 1994 and allied itself with the then ruling
State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC).

Fierce fighting broke out between the two groups in June this year,
forcing some 4,000 Karen civilians across the border into Thailand.

A spokesperson for the KNU, David Thakerbaw, said his group wants to
reunite with the DKBA but that the DKBA is only following orders from the
Burmese government.

“The DKBA is morally ruined and U Thuzana is not able to control them, as
far as I know,” he said.

“They are carrying out the wishes of the government. If they have a
patriotic spirit and the desire for Karen national liberation, they can
come back.”

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BUSINESS / TRADE

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HEALTH

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DRUGS
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ASEAN

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REGIONAL

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INTERNATIONAL

September 30, Reuters
Lifting Myanmar sanctions now would be mistake: U.S.

Washington, DC - The United States believes lifting sanctions against
Myanmar now, at the beginning of dialogue with that country's military
junta, would be a mistake, the top U.S. diplomat for Asia said on
Wednesday.

"Lifting or easing sanctions at the outset of a dialogue without
meaningful progress on our concerns would be a mistake," U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in prepared remarks to a U.S. Senate
panel.

Campbell met U Thaung, Myanmar's minister of science, technology and labor
in New York on Tuesday.

Campbell told a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee hearing that
the dialogue with the former Burma would "supplement rather than replace"
long-standing sanctions Washington that has imposed on Myanmar.

Following a U.S. policy review on Myanmar, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton last week said Washington will pursue deeper engagement with
Myanmar's military rulers to try to spur democratic reform but will not
ease sanctions for now.

Washington has gradually tightened sanctions on the generals who rule the
country to try to force them into political rapprochement with Nobel
laureate and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Myanmar plans next year to hold its first election in two decades, which
the junta says will bring an end to almost five decades of unbroken
military rule. Many analysts suspect the generals will still hold the real
power.

(Reporting by Paul Eckert, editing by Will Dunham)

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OPINION / OTHER

September 30, New York Times
Talking with Myanmar – Editorial

President Obama has decided to open talks with Myanmar’s repressive
government. Kurt Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia,
met in New York on Tuesday with Myanmar’s United Nations envoy and a
member of the government cabinet — the highest-level meeting between the
two governments in many years.

We have no affection for the ruthless military junta that has denied its
citizens the most basic freedoms and has kept Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the
Nobel Peace Prize laureate, under house arrest for 14 of the last 20
years. On Monday at the United Nations, Myanmar’s prime minister, Gen.
Thein Sein, again brushed aside calls for Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi’s release.

But talking is not a concession. And if handled skillfully, it might lead,
in time, to positive change.

The Clinton and Bush administrations imposed tough sanctions and refused
to talk until the junta released Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi and 2,000 other
political prisoners and made other political reforms. The punishment-only
approach hasn’t worked. Nor has the engagement-only approach of Myanmar’s
neighbors. Washington has now decided to give negotiations a try while
keeping sanctions in place.

There are issues the two governments can discuss, including ways to curb
the drug trade in Myanmar, recovering the remains of American servicemen
from World War II and addressing suspicions about Myanmar’s alleged
nuclear dealing with North Korea.

We agree that sanctions, including a ban on investment in Myanmar’s
mineral resources, should remain until the dialogue yields significant
progress — including freeing Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi and letting her and her
political party, the National League for Democracy, participate in next
year’s general elections. The lifting of penalties can be calibrated
according to whatever steps, if any, the junta takes.

Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi has endorsed the idea of limited engagement, but she
has insisted that both the junta and the United States talk with the
opposition as well.

The junta is hoping the elections will legitimize its hold on power. But
there are others who argue that, with the right outside pressure, it could
provide some political opening. Washington must make clear that the
election will have no credibility at all unless the opposition, and its
leading voice, can participate.

Change is unlikely to come quickly to Myanmar. But President Obama is
right to try to nudge the process forward with limited engagement.

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September 30, Weekly Standard (USA)
Dozens of monks crash Webb's junta love-in

Senator Jim Webb is holding his much-anticipated hearing on the Obama
administration's Burma policy today and Burma's democratic opposition is
crashing the event in a likely futile attempt to shame the Virginia
senator for his coddling of the junta. The press release says that "In a
sign of protest against U.S. Senator Jim Webb, dozens of Buddhist monks
will attend a hearing on U.S. Burma policy....Webb was recently defeated
in his drive to unilaterally lift U.S. sanctions on Burma's military
regime, after the State Department and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
stated that the United States would maintain sanctions on Burma unless the
country's military regime made concrete steps toward democracy." They go
on,

Webb did not invite anyone from Burma’s democracy movement to testify at
the Burma hearing -- including no Buddhist monks or members of the
political party of Nobel Peace Prize recipient Aung San Suu Kyi. Webb
exclusively invited participants who share his views on Burma, preventing
a full discussion of policy options on the country. With great
disappointment for the absence of monks or members of Burma’s democracy
movement in the hearing, two prominent monk groups, International Burmese
Monks Organization (IBMO) and All Burma Monks’ Alliance (ABMA) have
submitted written testimonies to Senator Webb.

The written testimony that the monks have submitted to Webb's committee
includes an op-ed by U Pyinya Zawta, who spent 10 years as a political
prisoner and is executive director of the All Burma Monks' Alliance. His
article was originally published in Irrawaddy and Zawta is asking that be
included in the hearing record. It concludes:

Webb is now despised by the people of Burma. If he succeeds in achieving a
shit in US policy to abandon sanctions, he will have secured his place in
history as on of the most important supporters of Than Swe's military
dictatorship.

How did Webb end up on the side of the junta and against the people of
Burma? Why is Webb spending his weekends with the war criminals that
control that regime while the people of Burma plead for him to stand down?
On behalf of what constituency is Webb acting, or is this simply a
misguided and botched attempt by Webb to leave his mark on some area of
U.S. foreign policy?

We will have reports from the hearing later today...and you can read the
testimony summited by the monks.

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September 30, Wall Street Journal
Burma wild cards – Kelly Currie

The Obama administration recently clarified its intentions to expand
direct contact with the Burmese junta, starting with a meeting with junta
officials in New York this week. For her part, Aung San Suu Kyi—the
democratically elected leader of Burma barred by the junta from taking
power for two decades—has made some moves of her own to restart dialogue,
sending a letter to junta leader Than Shwe offering to work with the
military regime to ease Burma's pariah status and help get western
sanctions lifted. For both the United States and Ms. Suu Kyi, there are
big risks but also potential rewards for laying their cards on the table
with the junta.

Ms. Suu Kyi has mastered the skill of being tactically flexible while
adhering to core principles and focusing on the long-term goals. Her offer
to help ease sanctions is a vintage Suu Kyi tactic. While reiterating that
the sanctions are not hers to lift or keep, she correctly acknowledges the
ability to make things better or worse for the junta on this score.

The letter appears conciliatory, but in reality seems designed to put the
junta on the defensive. Those who are frustrated by the junta's determined
hold on power will take note of her continued willingness and ability to
confront the regime. After more than 20 years in power, the junta itself
has made remarkably little progress in its efforts to establish legitimacy
at home or abroad. Ms. Suu Kyi's very existence serves as a constant check
on their efforts to establish legitimacy and she seems fully aware of the
power this gives her.

Ms. Suu Kyi also appears to make a virtue of her current house arrest at
the hands of the junta by asking for briefings on the impact of sanctions
from representatives of the countries that imposed them. She also wants to
discuss her findings with her fellow party members—difficult to do while
under house arrest. She apparently has repeated her long-standing request
for discussions with humanitarian organizations on both the problems they
are seeing in Burma and ways that they can work with the democratic
opposition to help resolve them. By positioning herself as objectively
looking at the facts and willing to adapt her views accordingly, she
contrasts her reasonableness with both the obdurate ridiculousness of the
junta and the rigid image that her critics have attempted to create.

Ms. Suu Kyi has a limited ability to communicate her messages directly,
due to her confinement. She thus runs a risk that her tactics will be
misunderstood as compromises of the principles that give her moral
authority. This has already happened to a degree, as reports by news
outlets like CNN, the Independent and the Associated Press have portrayed
her latest move as a complete turnabout when it is nothing of the sort.
However, the bigger risk of her approach is that the western countries she
relies on to give substance to her leverage over sanctions will abandon
her by attempting to cut their own deals with the junta.

Herein lies the danger for the Obama administration as well. Having shown
tactical flexibility with its own bid for direct talks, the U.S. now must
likewise exhibit an uncompromising commitment to principle. In rolling out
their new approach, Assistant Secretary of State for Asia Kurt Campbell
said "we will continue to push for the immediate and unconditional release
of Aung San Suu Kyi and all political prisoners, an end to conflicts with
ethnic minorities and gross human rights violations, and initiation of a
credible internal political dialogue with the democratic opposition and
ethnic minority leaders on elements of reconciliation and reform." He also
indicated that there will be no move to lift sanctions until and unless
the junta takes concrete steps on these core concerns.

Even with these caveats, the Obama team runs the risk of sending a
misleading message to the generals that they are being brought in from the
cold, especially in light of Senator James Webb's recent trip to Burma and
his recent statements. Mr. Webb seems to want the U.S. to emulate China's
behavior in Burma and abandon principled support for the democracy
movement to better check China's influence. He has expressed unqualified
support for the junta's planned 2010 elections, which will
institutionalize military rule, and has called for preemptive lifting of
sanctions. There is a significant difference between that version of
engagement and the kind Ms. Suu Kyi supports. She has already seemed to
publicly rebuke the senator for putting words in her mouth about
sanctions. Senator Webb's clumsy efforts could easily undercut the kind of
sophisticated diplomacy that the Obama administration hopes to employ.

Ms. Suu Kyi has signaled that she will not be sidelined by any new
engagement track the U.S. opens, but rather that she is integral to its
success. Her invitation to talk to the regime about sanctions—together
with the new U.S. outreach—puts the onus squarely where it belongs: on
Than Shwe and the junta. Should the generals choose to ignore her offer or
attempt to negotiate directly with the U.S., she seems poised to revoke
her qualified support for engagement, leaving the Obama administration in
the politically difficult position of engaging with the regime without her
blessing. That would be a losing gamble for the U.S., and more
importantly, for the Burmese people.

Ms. Currie is a non-resident fellow with the Project 2049 Institute, a
think tank in Washington. She previously served as a political appointee
working on Asia policy at the U.S. Department of State during the George
W. Bush administration.

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September 30, Irrawaddy
China’s dilemma: Junta oil and Wa refugees? – Saw Yan Naing

As the October deadline nears for ethnic cease-fire groups to capitulate
to the Burmese regime’s demands to join its border guard force, it appears
unavoidable that, sooner or later, major fighting will break out between
government forces and the Wa army.
About 50 government battalions have been deployed around the regions where
units of the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—the strongest ethnic cease-fire
army with an estimated 20 to 25,000 troops—are based in southern Shan
State, according to Shan and Kachin leaders.

Burma analysts say military preparations for the inevitable showdown have
been ongoing since the regime’s troops seized the Kokang capital, Laogai,
on August 24.

The government seizure of Laogai is considered a strong military location.
Analysts say that it strategically cuts off the route for communications
and transportation of troops and supplies between the UWSA units in
southern Shan State and their headquarters in Panghsang in northern Shan
State.

Apart from a direct military offensive against the cease-fire groups—in
particular the UWSA and the Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army
(NDAA)—the Burmese generals will typically employ their tried and tested
policy of “divide and rule”—a successful tactic in the recent offensive
against the Kokang when they seized upon rumors of a split in the Kokang
ranks and ousted leader Peng Jiasheng.

Another policy the junta can be relied on to use is discrediting their
enemies through national media, mostly by broadcasting accusations of drug
trafficking against them.

After the fall of Laogai, the government media reported drug seizures
which they linked to the cease-fire groups, particularly the UWSA, whose
name has become synonymous with drug trafficking in Burma, despite the
close drug-related relationship the Wa enjoyed with the military
government just a few years ago.

Htay Aung, a Burmese researcher with the exiled Network for Democracy and
Development, said that “double pressure” will apply on the cease-fire
groups after the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic
of China on Oct 1.

Beijing would not want a refugee crisis on its borders during its
celebrations and has undoubtedly warned Naypyidaw to refrain from causing
bloodshed until after the party.

Thailand-based observers, such as Htay Aung, say that—provided they are
given the green light by China—the Burmese generals have given themselves
little option but to launch military operations against the Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), the UWSA and the NDAA.

The next question is: what will Beijing do if and when war breaks out
along its southwestern border?

Burmese dissidents and the exiled media have stated that the Chinese
government has dual interests—its trade and gas pipelines with the Burmese
junta, and its arms sales and blood ties with the Wa and other
border-based groups.

David Mathieson, a Burma analyst with Human Rights Watch, said that it is
very clear that China is unhappy with the prospect of an armed conflict on
its border and certainly does not want an influx of refugees. (In August,
37,000 Kokang and Chinese refugees fled across the border to China after
the Burmese army seized Laogai.)

China will be putting pressure on the Kachin, the Wa and the Burmese
regime to avoid conflict, said Mathieson.

Thakin Chan Tun, a former Burmese ambassador to China, said, “If China
backs only the Wa, this will damage its image [given the Wa reputation as
drug traffickers].

“It also has to consider the relationship between Burma and India. If
Burma turns its attention fully to India, China will lose out,” he said.

As well as having India to turn to, the Burmese regime has also opened up
recently to the US.

Saeng Juen, an editor with the Thailand-based Shan Herald Agency for News,
said, “To be able to play with the Chinese government over the cease-fire
issue, the junta is now renewing its relationship with the US.”

Meanwhile, according to Reuters news agency, the Burmese ambassador to
China, Thein Lwin, said on Wednesday that peace has now “more or less
returned” to the Kokang region.

However, Chinese authorities have been building three camps as temporary
shelters in Yunnan Province opposite Panghsang in anticipation of an
incursion of refugees.

Burmese dissidents have said that China will be deeply torn if fighting
breaks out along its border between its ethnic blood brothers and the
Burmese government. However, it would be prudent of Beijing to shelter the
ethnic refugees and offer lip-service criticism of the junta while
maintaining its diplomatic relationship with Naypyidaw and the security of
its pipelines.

According to Thakin Chan Tun, Beijing may be finally realizing its role in
Burma: working with refugees and ignoring the Burmese regime’s human
rights abuses, and in return securing its long-term national interests in
Burma.

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September 30, Huffington Post (USA)
As an American is tortured in Burma, where's the outrage? – Jonathan Hulland

As I write this, an American is being tortured in Burma. Yet little is
being done by the United States to secure his release and few mainstream
media outlets are covering his story. So why isn't more being done on Nyi
Nyi Aung's behalf?

The last time I saw Nyi Nyi Aung (also known as Kyaw Zaw Lwin) was in June
at an event in New York to commemorate the 64th birthday of Burmese
democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Nyi Nyi Aung was dressed in a crisp
white collarless button-down shirt and a Burmese plaid sarong -- since
1988 the recognizable uniform of Burma's student democracy activists. Born
in Burma, Nyi Nyi Aung fled the country following his participation in
1988's democracy protests. Since 1994, he's lived in the U.S. as a
resident of suburban Maryland.

Today Nyi Nyi Aung languishes in Burma's infamous Insein (pronounced
"insane") Prison, where for four decades legions of democracy activists
have been imprisoned, tortured, and murdered. Since his arrest in
September, credible reports have emerged that Nyi Nyi Aung has been
tortured, beaten, even denied food for a week. Indeed, there's a good
chance that Nyi Nyi Aung is being tortured right now -- his body spread
out and tied down to a rough table while guards beat him with bamboo
canes. Sadly, as the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political
Prisoners-Burma has thoroughly documented, such torture is routine for the
roughly 2,100 political prisoners in Burma. So how does an American
citizen end up tortured in Burma?

On September 3rd, Nyi Nyi Aung arrived at Rangoon's airport with a tourist
visa stamped into his American passport. For whatever reason, Burma's
ruling junta was waiting for him. For the more than three-weeks since he
was arrested at the airport, Nyi Nyi Aung has been a prisoner of a foreign
regime. Yet Nyi Nyi Aung's name and face have yet to be beamed out on the
evening news, nor has the State Department made an official appeal on his
behalf. The White House also hasn't done a thing despite the fact that
President Obama's is bound by law to take up Nyi Nyi Aung's case if it
appears that the imprisonment is wrongful (remember Bill Clinton's trip to
North Korea and Senator Webb's trip to Burma earlier this year?). So why
isn't there more outrage and action at this American's appalling treatment
by a ruthless dictatorship? One answer is that America's recent flirtation
with torture has inured it to the torture of Americans themselves, but I
can't and don't want to believe this.

A more likely answer lies with the U.S.'s recent decision to rethink its
foreign policy on Burma. The tough "stick" sanctions policy, which has
prevailed in Washington for over a decade and admittedly hasn't brought
Burma closer to democracy, seems to be quickly giving way to a softer
"carrots" engagement policy despite the regime's brutal response to the
2007 democracy protests and its pitiful failure to act after Cyclone
Nargis ravaged Burma last year. This policy realignment kicked off last
week in Washington, D.C. with a meeting between the State Department and
Burma's foreign minister. Major General Nyan Win's visit to the capital
was the first by a Burmese foreign minister in nine years because of a
visa ban that had kept high-level members of the military junta from
traveling in the U.S. The visa ban is law, but that didn't stop the Obama
administration from waiving the ban -- no doubt the first of many
controversial carrots to come.

Whatever the consequences of this policy sea change, it seems clear that
as a result the military dictatorship will gain at the expense of the
country's embattled democracy movement, at least in the short term. But
how will this change in policy affect those inside Burma, whose human
rights and dignity are already threatened on a massive scale? Given the
recent treatment of Nyi Nyi Aung, by both the junta and the United States
government, we should be worried. Human rights are clearly not a priority
of this policy reversal.

Ignoring Nyi Nyi Aung's arrest and torture, I fear, was a direct
consequence of the U.S.'s reengagement with the regime. Given the delicate
and controversial politics at play, calling for his release, it was
probably reasoned, would have jeopardized the U.S.'s entire strategy to
bring the junta to the table. Of course, you might argue that it wasn't in
the best interests of the junta either to torture an American just as its
foreign minister was arriving in Washington. But the junta is famous for
testing the limits of what it can get away with.

The message from Washington to Burma's junta last week was clear: we will
look the other way, even at the torture of one of our own, if you engage
with us. The U.S.'s ultimate objective by engaging the junta remains
unclear. Engagement is not a bad thing per say, in fact it's needed, but
the motives for it should be made clear and transparent. Many analysts
suspect that the reengagement is a purely realpolitik move directed at
containing Chinese influence in Burma rather than any meaningful step
towards democracy promotion. Either way, it's a gamble for a White House
that is already doing too little to promote and protect human rights
worldwide.

In his speech at the United Nations last week, President Obama pledged
that "America will live its values, and we will lead by example." If we
are to believe Mr. Obama, he must -- at the very least -- stand up for the
human rights of his fellow Americans. As for the U.S.'s position on Burma,
whatever we do, let's ensure that the protection and promotion of human
rights remains a clear priority of that policy. The U.S.'s failure to act
on Nyi Nyi Aung's behalf, much less the 2,100 other political prisoners in
Burma, is a clear reminder that we must not allow human rights to be
sacrificed at the altar of "diplomatic engagement."


Jonathan Hulland is a recent graduate of Columbia University's School for
International and Public Affairs. He worked with Burma's democracy
movement in New York and Thailand from 2003 to 2008.