BurmaNet News, October 3 - 5, 2009

[Editor]

October 3 – 5, 2009 Issue #3812


INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar-American to get Suu Kyi lawyers
Mizzima News: Four women activists arrested by special branch
Mizzima News: Than Shwe to visit cyclone-hit delta
AP via Sydney Morning Herald: Landslides in Burma kill three people
NLM: Relations Minister U Aung Kyi meets Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Regional peace is threatened: Kachin

HEALTH
Mizzima News: Unidentified flu afflicts villagers in eastern Burma

REGIONAL
AFP: Myanmar minister promises 'free and fair' elections
Reuters: Myanmar says nuclear ambitions are peaceful: Japan

INTERNATIONAL
AP via Irrawaddy: Burmese junta’s allies call for Suu Kyi's release
MiniVan News (Maldives): Maldives calls for immediate release of Aung San
Suu Kyi

OPINION / OTHER
The Nation (Thailand): Regional implications of US policy on Burma – Kavi
Chongkittavorn
Irrawaddy: Is it the same old game? – Aung Moe Zaw
Bangkok Post: Thailand has a stake in Burma solution – Editorial
Mizzima News: Beijing and Burma no longer best of friends – Larry Jagan



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 5, Associated Press
Myanmar-American to get Suu Kyi lawyers

Yangon, Myanmar — Two lawyers for detained Myanmar opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi have agreed to defend a Myanmar-born American jailed for
allegedly planning to incite unrest in the military-run country, the
lawyers said Saturday.

Attorney Nyan Win said he and fellow lawyer Kyi Win were approached by the
U.S. Embassy to represent Kyaw Zaw Lwin, who has been in prison since
being arrested Sept. 3 on arrival at Yangon airport.

"We have accepted the offer," said Nyan Win, adding that the Foreign
Ministry needed to confirm their appointment.

U.S. Embassy spokesman Richard Mei said he was unable to comment.

Dissident groups reported Kyaw Zaw Lwin's disappearance, but his
whereabouts were unknown until he was allowed a U.S. consular visit Sept.
20 at Myanmar's Insein Prison.

According to dissident groups, Kyaw Zaw Lwin is a resident of Maryland in
the U.S.

Several days after the consular visit, the embassy said it had made a
formal complaint to Myanmar's military government based on claims by Kyaw
Zaw Lwin that he was mistreated in prison.

The London-based human rights group Amnesty International has said that
"trusted sources" reported he had suffered torture that included beatings
and kicking and that he was deprived of food for seven days.

Myanmar authorities accuse Kyaw Zaw Lwin of entering Myanmar to stir up
protests by Buddhist monks, who earlier spearheaded pro-democracy
demonstrations in 2007 that were brutally suppressed by the junta. State
radio and television say he confessed to plotting with dissident groups
outside the country, and accused him of links to several activists inside
Myanmar who planned to set off bombs.

Kyaw Zaw Lwin's mother is serving a five-year jail term for political
activities and his sister was sentenced to 65 years in prison for her role
in the 2007 pro-democracy protests, activist groups and family members
said.

Lawyers Nyan Win and Kyi Win led the legal team that defended Suu Kyi in a
recent high-profile trial that resulted in an extension of her house
arrest. She is currently serving an 18-month sentence after previously
spending 14 of the past 20 years in detention.

____________________________________

October 5, Mizzima News
Four women activists arrested by special branch – Myint Maung

New Delhi – Four women activists, praying for the release of detained
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, were arrested on Saturday,  the eve of
full moon day that marked the end of Buddhist lent, sources close to the
activists said.

Naw Ohn Hla, Myint Myint San, Cho Cho Lwin and Ma Cho, were arrested by
Rangoon’s Special Branch Police after returning from the Magwe Monastery
in South Dagon suburb of Rangoon. They had offered alms to monks on the
eve of the full-moon day, a source close to the activists said.

“We were told that they dropped Cho Cho Lwin at her shop in Thingankyun
Township and the other three were on their way back home. But they were
picked up by the SB from the road,” a family member of Ma Cho told
Mizzima.

The family member, who sought anonymity, said Cho Cho Lwin was picked up
later from her shop by the SB. They asked her to close the shop
immediately and follow them.

“Cho Cho Lwin was taken to the local Peace and Development Council office.
I followed them but was not allowed to enter,” said the family member
adding that they are still unaware of the whereabouts of the four women
activists.

Naw Ohn Hla, a former National League for Democracy member has been an
active campaigner for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and regularly holds
prayers in pagodas on Tuesdays, the day on which the pro-democracy leader
was born.

A close friend of Naw Ohn Hla in Rangoon’s Hmawbe Township said, “I heard
that she had been arrested again. But I don’t know her whereabouts. She is
often arrested but she is sent back the next day. But this time she has
not come back yet.”

Buddhist monks in Burma and in exile have set Saturday as the last date
for the military government to apologize to them for their maltreatment of
fellow monks during the 2007 monk-led protests and in the aftermath of the
crackdown.

But since the junta failed to apologize, monks said they have begun the
third boycott, known as ‘Pattani Kuzanakan’. The boycott involves not
accepting alms and donations from members of the military regime and not
conducting any Buddhist rituals for them.

The first ‘Pattani Kuzanakan’ was announced in 1990, after soldiers were
ordered to shoot-down Buddhist monks offering alms and donation on Burma’s
Martyr’s Day. The second was in September 2007, when soldiers attacked
monks in Pakokku town in Magwe division while they were marching and
chanting metta-sutta, the Buddhist words for loving kindness.

____________________________________

October 3, Mizzima News
Than Shwe to visit cyclone-hit delta

The Burmese military junta supremo Snr. Gen Than Shwe will pay a two-day
visit to the cyclone-hit region of the Irrawaddy delta next week as part
of a good will trip to show solidarity and support to victims of Cyclone
Nargis, which ravaged the area in May 2008.

Sources in the military said, Than Shwe’s trip will commence on October 6.
He will attend the inaugural ceremony of the Yuzana Cyclone Shelter in
Pyar Pone Township. Other cyclone shelters cannot be inaugurated as they
have not been completed in time, the source added.

Than Shwe is currently in Rangoon, meeting and accepting gifts and
offerings from military officials and his business cronies, the source
said.

Surprising as it may seem, the military top brass has been speculating
that Than Shwe is likely to meet detained opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi.

“If everything goes well, Than Shwe is likely to meet her. Otherwise,
somebody else will meet Aung San Suu Kyi,” the source said without
elaborating on the terms and conditions that Than Shwe is looking for
meeting the detained opposition leader.

Earlier today, the Junta’s Liaison Minister Aung Kyi met opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi at Sein Le Kan Thar government guest house in Rangoon for
40 minutes.

While details of the meeting, which began at 1 p.m. (local time), is still
not available, opposition sources believe it could be related to the Nobel
Peace Laureate’s proposal to Than Shwe, sent last month.

The National League for Democracy party leader, in her letter dated
September 25, said she is willing to work with Than Shwe to help ease
sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union and Australia.

For which, Aung San Suu Kyi had asked Than Shwe to allow her meetings with
representatives of the US, EU and Australia to get an idea of their stance
on sanctions.

____________________________________

October 5, Associated Press via Sydney Morning Herald
Landslides in Burma kill three people

Landslides triggered by heavy rains in southern Burma have killed three
Buddhist monks and damaged monasteries and homes, a state newspaper
reports.

Myanma Ahlin said the fatalities occurred on Saturday in the southernmost
town of Kawthaung, which borders Thailand.

The report published on Monday said two young monks and a boy were also
injured, and authorities were working with residents to provide aid and
relief.

The landslides occurred in a low-lying area just east of the Tanintharyi
mountain range.

State media in Burma typically report news of disasters several days late.
____________________________________

October 3, New Light of Myanmar
Relations Minister U Aung Kyi meets Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

Yangon — Minister for Labour U Aung Kyi, who is assigned duties as
Relations Minister to communicate with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, met Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi at Seinle Kantha Guesthouse here from 1 pm to 1.40 pm today.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi wrote a letter dated 25 September 2009 and addressed
it to Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman of the State Peace and
Development Council. The letter arrived at the State Peace and Development
Council on 1 October. Therefore, Relations Minister U Aung Kyi went to
Yangon on 2 October and met and discussed with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi today.

It is found that the Central Executive Committee of National League for
Democracy distributed copies of the letter as a special announcement
(6/09/09) dated 28 September 2009 through internal and external media. –
MNA

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 5, Irrawaddy
Regional peace is threatened: Kachin – Lawi Weng

If the Burmese junta continues to demand that the Kachin Independence
Organization (KIO) transforms its troops to serve as a border guard force,
armed conflict is likely, the KIO general-secretary said following a
meeting with the junta’s northern regional commander.

The KIO general-secretary, La Ja, told The Irrawaddy on Monday, “We want
long-term peace, and we don’t want to wage war, but if the junta forces us
to transform our troops, the regional peace will be destroyed.”

La Ja and members of the KIO delegation met with the junta’s northern
regional commander, Maj-Gen Soe Win, in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin
State, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

La Ja said Soe Win asked many questions about various KIO departments and
the management of the army, in regard to transforming it into a border
guard force.

KIO leaders have met with Burmese military officers eight times to discuss
the border guard issue. The KIO has made an alternate proposal to
transform its troops into a Kachin regional border guard force.

“We totally agree to change our troops sometime in the future,” La Ja
said. “But now is not the time. To change, we need more facts and time.”
La Ja has said that KIO troops would only become a border guard force
under the central government if there is a political change that brings
true democracy to Burma.

The KIO said reports were not true that the government asked the Kachin
Independence Army to withdraw Brigade 4 from an area in northeast Shan
State near the Chinese border.

The majority of the 17 armed ethnic cease-fire groups have said no to the
junta’s proposal to transform into a border guard force under the command
of junta officers.

The deadline to respond to the offer is October. Under the new 2008
Constitution, all ethnic armed cease-fire groups are required to serve
under the command of junta officers.

____________________________________
HEALTH

October 5, Mizzima News
Unidentified flu afflicts villagers in eastern Burma – Kyaw Kha

Chiang Mai – At least 500 villagers belonging to nine villages in Phapun
district in Karen state in eastern Burma, bordering Thailand, are
suffering from a new but as yet unidentified type of flu, according to the
back-pack medical team, which visited the area and distributed medical
supplies.

The strange disease, which began infecting villagers since last month, has
spread among both adults and children, the team said.

“The disease has infected over 500 people both adults and children. While
we have confirmed that it is flu, we are still unable to determine what
type it is. We have sent samples to Mae Sod hospital in Thailand for
diagnosis but we are yet to get the results,’ Manh Manh, Director of the
Thailand-based back- pack medical team told Mizzima.

The Director said the symptoms of the flu resemble A(H1N1) as patients had
running nose, cough and fever. Villagers have panicked, and have been
closing down schools fearing that the flu will continue to spread.

“Last year a similar problem occurred, but it did not spread so fast. We
have closed schools from September 26 and 27,” Saw Win Kyaw, in-charge of
the Phapun district back-pack team said.

The outbreak, notwithstanding, so far medical assistance to the villagers
has not been provided by the authorities in Phapun town, which is about 32
miles from the village tracts. No roads exist for vehicles to ply. The
only communication is by foot or by boat along the river.

According to Thiha Maung, Director of the Thailand-based National Health
and Education Committee (NHEC), the villages in Phapun district, during
this time of the year is cold and humid, and it helps the flu spread,
particularly among vulnerable sections.

“We suggest whenever they cough or have a running nose handkerchiefs or
tissue papers be used. Hands should be washed frequently. This should be
adopted as a habit,” Dr. Thiha Maung said.

Manh Manh said medical experts from Mae Sod’s Mae Tao clinic plan to hold
a medical education training programme for villagers in Phapun district to
give them an idea of basic medical care.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 3, Agence France Presse
Myanmar minister promises 'free and fair' elections

Siem Reap, Cambodia — Myanmar's foreign minister promised Saturday his
country would hold "free and fair" elections next year, despite the
detention of democracy campaigner Aung San Suu Kyi.

"In my country free and fair elections will be held. We have already
announced it," Myanmar foreign minister Nyan Win told reporters after a
meeting with counterparts in Cambodia's northwestern tourist hub.

"(Whether) the elections are free and fair or not, so far no one can judge
it. After the elections will be held, you can judge whether the elections
are free and fair or not."

A Myanmar court Friday rejected an appeal by Suu Kyi against her
conviction over an incident in which a US man swam uninvited to her home
in May, earning her an extra 18 months' detention.

The sentence sidelines her from the elections promised for 2010, leading
critics to say the polls are a sham.

The minister made the remarks after meeting with the foreign ministers of
Japan, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam for talks intended to foster
development within the Mekong region.

Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962, and the junta refused to
acknowledge the landslide win of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
party in the last elections in 1990.

Japanese foreign minister Katsuya Okada said the talks raised
"Myanmar-related questions".

"We hope that Aung San Suu Kyi will be released and transparent elections
will be conducted with the participation of all political parties," he
told reporters.

Myanmar's foreign minister told his counterparts that "democracy can't be
imposed from outside," Japanese foreign ministry spokesman Kazuo Kodama
said.

Japan's new government has voiced hopes of fostering ties with countries
in the Mekong region.

Suu Kyi, who has spent much of the last 20 years in detention, had a rare
meeting with junta minister Aung Kyi Saturday, in which her lawyer said
they probably discussed how to end Western sanctions against Myanmar.

____________________________________

October 3, Reuters
Myanmar says nuclear ambitions are peaceful: Japan – Ek Madra

Siem Reap, Cambodia – Japan said on Saturday it had been assured by
military-ruled Myanmar that it was not developing nuclear weapons even
though it was working with Russia on a nuclear energy program.

Myanmar has remained tight-lipped about its nuclear plans, despite
speculation it has been receiving help from North Korea to build nuclear
facilities near its remote capital with the intent of developing a weapon.

Myanmar's Foreign Minister Nyan Win told his Japanese counterpart Katsuya
Okada that his country was seeking Russia's expertise, but only in
developing a peaceful energy program for its people.

"(Nyan Win) told Japan's foreign minister that Myanmar has no intention to
have a nuclear weapon," Japan's Foreign Ministry spokesman Kazuo Kodama
told reporters on the sidelines of a Mekong-Japan ministerial meeting in
Siem Reap, Cambodia.

"Myanmar has conducted a consultation to have assistance from Russia for a
peaceful use of nuclear energy."

Kazuo did not say if the issue of any nuclear links with North Korea was
discussed.

Academic researchers said in August Myanmar was building a secret nuclear
reactor and plutonium facility in caves tunneled into a mountain, citing
intelligence from two defectors.

The defectors also said Myanmar, which has known reserves of uranium ore,
had provided refined "yellowcake" processed uranium that can be used as
nuclear fuel to Iran and North Korea.

The isolated country has been under Western sanctions for two decades and
analysts say a nuclearized Myanmar could trigger an arms race in the
region.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said at a security forum in
Thailand in July that she was concerned about the possible transfer of
nuclear technology to Myanmar from North Korea.

In reference to ties between North Korea and Myanmar, U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, the top U.S. diplomat for Asia, said
there were "some signs that that cooperation has extended into areas that
would be prohibited.

However, many analysts have said evidence of attempts to develop nuclear
weapons is scant and have questioned the reliability of the defectors'
information.

(Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by Alison Williams)

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 4, Associated Press via Irrawaddy
Burmese junta’s allies call for Suu Kyi's release

Geneva — China and other allies of the military government in Burma have
joined an international call for the release of jailed opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi.

India and Russia also aligned themselves with European countries and the
US to demand that the Burmese junta release all political prisoners and
allow them to take part in next year’s elections.

The UN Human Rights Council’s 47 members unanimously adopted the
resolution in Geneva as a court in the junta rejected Suu Kyi’s latest
appeal for freedom on Friday.

Beijing in particular has traditionally protected its southerly neighbor
from criticism in the global body. Suu Kyi has been detained for about 14
of the last 20 years.

____________________________________

October 4, MiniVan News (Maldives)
Maldives calls for immediate release of Aung San Suu Kyi – Maryam Omidi

The Maldives cosponsored a resolution on Friday calling for the immediate
release of Aung San Suu Kyi at the United Nations Human Rights Council.

The resolution expresses concern over Aung San Suu Kyi’s most recent
sentence, which extended her house arrest by 18 months after an American
man swam over to her house uninvited, breaching the terms of her
imprisonment.

The resolution further calls on the military junta to engage in dialogue,
release all political prisoners to allow them to participate in the 2010
general election and ensure conditions are conducive for free and fair
elections.

Speaking after the adoption of the resolution, which was accepted without
a vote, Foreign Minister Dr Ahmed Shaheed said the Maldives was a staunch
advocate for democracy in Burma because of its own recent history, which
similarly saw “the free will of the many suppressed by the power of the
few.”

The Maldives’ first democratic elections were held in October last year
and saw former political prisoner Mohamed Nasheed snatch victory from
30-year-ruler Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

“We are proud to have stepped forward today in defence of civil liberties
in Burma and we hope that the resolution will demonstrate the will of the
international community to see, in 2010, free and fair elections in Burma
and a brighter future for its people,” said Shaheed.

He added the Maldives’ sponsorship of the resolution was a demonstration
of its commitment to freedom of expression and women’s rights as well as
the country’s leadership on issues of international concern such as
climate change.

The ruling military junta imprisoned Nobel Peace Laureate Aung Sang Suu
Kyi for 14 out of the past 20 years.

Since assuming office last year, Nasheed, a former Amnesty International
prisoner of conscience, has spoken out against her detention on several
occasions.

Most recently, he called for her immediate and unconditional release at
the 64th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

“Standing at this podium, I must admit how, as a prisoner, I was inspired
by the courage and vision of Aung Sang Suu Kyi of Burma. Today I would
like to echo the call of the secretary-general for her immediate and
unconditional release along with all other political prisoners.

“I also reiterate my strident support for the work assigned to Mr Ibrahim
Gambari, the UN special envoy to Burma, and say a prayer to political
prisoners everywhere.”

On Friday, Mark Farmaner, the director of Burma Campaign UK, said the
junta’s rejection of Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s appeal linked to the poor
international response to her conviction.

He said that although the European Union and other countries threatened
tough sanctions if her sentence was extended, all failed to deliver.

“By now, Burma’s generals are well used to the fact that strong words
rarely translate into practical action, so they continue to defy the
international community and break internal law with impunity.”

Farmaner called for a global arms embargo and a UN Commission of Inquiry
into war crimes and crimes against humanity, committed by the junta.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 5, The Nation (Thailand)
Regional implications of US policy on Burma – Kavi Chongkittavorn

THE CAREFULLY CRAFTED 490-word US policy on Burma is aimed at all players
in the region and afar, directly and indirectly, involved in the Burmese
quagmire. Coming as it did at this juncture, the policy will be used as a
new benchmark to gauge Rangoon's genuine desire for dialogue and openness.
It also seeks to rejuvenate international engagement with regional
dynamics. This represents another much-needed effort to break the current
impasse that the regime can take after Australia made the first
attempt—with a long list of demands-at the 1994 Asean ministerial meeting
in Bangkok.

Washington realises now that the new approach is likely to be "slow and
incremental." In other words, it will be a step by step process. This time
a more concerted international effort is required to ease the Burmese
crisis after decades of sanctions. The Obama Administration should be
lauded for seizing this unique opportunity to formulate a new policy that
some regional players can identify with.

The US softer approach has short and long-term objectives. In the next 15
months, pressure on Burma would be a step up building on existing progress
accomplished since August including increased US-Burmese high-level
meetings and dialogues, as well as ongoing communications between General
Than Shwe and the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi on ways to loosen up
sanctions. After the US completed its policy reviews, Suu Kyi reiterated
her readiness again to help end sanctions against the regime, which she
first outlined two and half years ago.

Washington also wants to lay groundwork for inclusive, free and fair
elections next year in Burma. Judging from the tone of US senior
officials, any positive response from the junta on Suu Kyi's unconditional
release or electoral process in coming weeks or months would immediately
help to build up mutual confidence and widen the communication channels
between the two capitals. Cooperation on counter-narcotics, health,
environmental protection, and the recovery of World War II-era
missing-in-action (MIAs) could be new incentives.

Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Kurt
Campbell made clear that lifting or easing sanctions at the outset of a
dialogue without meaningful progress on the US concerns would be a
mistake. "We will maintain our existing sanctions until we see concrete
progress, and continue to work with the international community to ensure
that those sanctions are effectively coordinated," he told a Senate
Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs last week.

In the medium and long term, the US policy seeks to break up the twin
influence of China and India over Burma. In the policy statement, the US
says it will continue to cooperate and coordinate closely with the UN,
Asean, the EU, China, Japan, India, Australia, the Burmese opposition and
others. In reality, the US targets China and India—the two key players
which have propped up and strengthened the military junta. The US new
positions are more or less closer to those held by key players which
prefer more contact,with sanctions still intact, or backing easing of
sanctions with more humanitarian assistance.

Since Cyclone Nargis, the EU has picked humanitarian options for the
Burmese people albeit growing criticism that it would benefit the regime.
For decades, Japan has limited its assistance aid to humanitarian and
human resource development, especially in economic planning. Australia
also tried without much success to increase awareness on human rights and
democracy inside Burma.

With the US new policy, Asean will find it easier to work with the US on
Burma—a new element under the Obama administration and Asean. Asean
opposes sanctions against Burma, since it was admitted into the grouping
in 1997. Apart from sharing common objectives of seeing a united,
prosperous and democratic country, now the two sides are moving closer on
sanctions. Asean argues sanctions must stop as it hurts the Burmese
people.

Ironically, the Asean-US closer cooperation on Burma effectively put an
end to the Aseanisation process of Burmese conundrums that began in
earnest in Luxembourg in 1991, fuelling the longstanding feud between EU
and Asean over Burma. Even before the country joined the grouping, Asean
leaders believed they could handle the Burmese issue better than the
outsiders through peer pressure and the Asean way. The polarisation
reached its peak in 1997 when Burma was admitted to Asean with strong
support from former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohammad and
Indonesian ex-President Suharto.

The US-led "internationalisation" process could overtake the
Asean-initiated or even the UN framework, if Burma responds positively to
Washington's overtures in a timely manner. In that case, Rangoon has lots
of explaining to do for its Asean colleagues and international community.
Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya's decision to give up the joint Asean
appeal on Suu Kyi's freedom, citing the existing international efforts,
confirmed this inevitable trend. Like it or not, Asean future positions on
Burma would have to take in broad-based international sentiments.

The first US-Asean summit in Singapore, scheduled on November 15, will
include Burmese Prime Minister Thien Sein. It was no longer a taboo for
the leaders of US and Burma to meet. The summit—whether it is
institutionalised-would further deepen the US role played in regional
issues. With its Asean ambassador in residence in Jakarta (the first in
Asean) to be announced soon, Washington will also have a senior official
follow up on this issue with the Asean Secretariat. Later this month, at
the Asean summit in Cha-am, Asean expects to see more positive signs from
Burma related to the electoral process and relations with the opposition
partners.

Closer to home, the US policy will impact on the porous Thai-Burma border.
Issues related to attacks on minorities, drugs and human smuggling would
be placed high on the US watch lists. More than before, both Thailand and
Malaysia—not to mention China over the Kokang conflict- have all suffered
from the influx of Burmese refugees.

Recent attacks on minorities along the Thai border by the Burmese troops
again displaced thousands of minorities inside the Thai territory.

In years ahead, the US policy serves to enhance Thailand's position
vis-a-vis Burma over its nuclear ambition. US senior officials have
reiterated the UN Security Council's resolution 1874 (as well as 1718
during testimonies) which deals with nuclear proliferation as part of the
Burmese policy gist.

Washington has been very concerned about the nature and extent of Burma's
nuclear ties with North Korea. During recent testimony, Senator Richard
Lugar from Indiana continued to question Burma's motives in dispatching
hundreds of its officials to Russia for nuclear technology training. He
pointed out the number of persons travelling to Russia for specialised
training seemed to be far beyond the number needed for the eventual
operation of a nuclear reactor for medical research purposes, intended to
be built by the junta with Russian government assistance Thailand has yet
to treat with seriousness this explosive issue.

Except for selective army intelligence officials working closely with
Australian and American counterparts, the rest of Thai society has been
kept in the dark on Burma's nuclearisation program and its implications on
the country's future security. The Thai policy makers, in particular the
National Security Council, tend to view Burma's quagmire and security
concerns through myopic bilateral prisms, which immediately mitigate any
serious strategic evaluation of potential nuclear threats to Thailand.
____________________________________

October 5, Irrawaddy
Is it the same old game? – Aung Moe Zaw

While some people’s hopes may be raised at the news of the recent meeting
between Aung San Suu Kyi and Maj-Gen Aung Kyi, the junta's liaison
minister, others will observe it with a wait-and-see attitude. Others
still may argue that this is just another version of the same old game
that the regime has played many times before.

All will ponder on the motives behind the decision of the regime to talk
to Suu Kyi at this stage.

Could it be that Rangoon is worried about possible unrest due to the
political and socio-economic conditions? Is it that China, Russia and
India have joined with EU members in calling for the release of the
pro-democracy leader and other political prisoners, and are applying
pressure for more inclusive participation in the 2010 election?

Or is it that the regime wants to give its new friend, Senator Jim Webb,
some potent arguments for use in his advocacy of abandoning principled
support for the democracy movement in Burma?—arguments which Webb will be
desperately searching for after the court rejected Suu Kyi’s appeal
against her extended house arrest.

Is the military regime just giving itself and the pro-election supporters
a pat on the back? Or is the junta reacting to Suu Kyi's tactful approach
to sanctions and her recent letter, addressed to Snr-Gen Than Shwe, that
encouraged the regime to do a PR job on its image, especially since it has
so boldly refused the reconciliatory offers of the pro-democracy movement
in the past.

With a bit of luck, the regime may start to realize that even if they
exploit the recent US engagement policy, they will not be able to
marginalize the NLD leader and that they will be compelled to work with
her.

Past experience has taught us that those who put no trust in the sincerity
of the regime's motives are, in the end, always proved correct.

In the wake of the Saffron Revolution, Aung Kyi was appointed as a liaison
officer between Suu Kyi and the junta while Than Shwe portrayed the
impression of initiating reconciliatory talks with her.

No sooner had the Burmese public and the international community dared to
whisper their hopes of a possible national reconciliation process when the
junta ambushed its dialogue partner by issuing Decree 1/2008, announcing a
constitutional referendum in May 2008; and Decree 2/2008, setting 2010 as
the year for a general election.
The regime was making it clear that it had effectively abandoned any
inclusive dialogue process.

Not only did they shut out the domestic opposition, but they have also
sidelined UN efforts to bring an end to the political crisis in Burma by
unilaterally going ahead with “step four” of their “road map to
democracy.”

The recent rejection of Suu Kyi's appeal against her continued detention
is further proof of the regime's refusal to reconcile with pro-democracy
and ethnic rights movements.

Nevertheless, hopes for positive change must not be lost. We must all be
persistent with our aspirations for change in our country. Regardless of
differing opinions, everyone from the pro-democracy camp genuinely wishes
that these talks will turn out to be the initial step toward national
reconciliation in Burma.

If these talks are genuine, Than Shwe will have to do more than arranging
a 50-minute chat with Suu Kyi and his liaison officer; he will have to
drop his unilateral road map and the 2010 election plan.

In my opinion, Burma urgently needs credible internal dialogue, national
reconciliation and restoration of the rule of law in order to bring itself
out of this political, socio-economic crisis and bring to an end the
chronic human rights violations.

Elections should be held only as a part of this process of national
reconciliation, which will in turn contribute to democratic transition.
National reconciliation means that all parties will be involved in the
solutions and there will be no losers. The winners will be the people of
Burma.

Than Shwe and his military clique just need to realize that going ahead
with the 2010 election (under the 2008 constitution) will lead nowhere;
rather, it will further deteriorate the country's socio-economic and
political situation.

Burma's most urgent need is for a credible dialogue among stakeholders,
not an election.

Aung Moe Zaw is the chairman of the Democratic Party for a New Society, a
Burmese political party based in exile.

____________________________________

October 5, Bangkok Post
Thailand has a stake in Burma solution – Editorial

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya's comment last week from New York _ that
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) had scrapped a plan to
appeal to Burma for the release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
because the United Nations, the United States and the European Union had
reviewed their policies and there were signs they would engage more with
Burma deserves a closer examination.

Mr Kasit had attended the United Nations General Assembly in New York the
previous week, and it had been reported that while there he would lobby
Asean ministers from Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, Burma and Vietnam to reverse
their opposition to sending a letter to the Burmese junta asking it to
pardon Mrs Suu Kyi, who was recently sentenced to 18 months additional
house arrest.

Prior to this the signs of a more proactive stance on Burma taken by the
present Thai government, to a large extent initiated by Mr Kasit, had been
encouraging, and there is no reason to abandon that stance just because
the UN, the US and the EU are now talking about engaging Burma.

Forgetting for a moment humanitarian issues, it goes without saying that
Thailand is tremendously affected by the political situation inside Burma,
and therefore has a right and an obligation to speak out and try to
influence a reconciliation, not only with Mrs Suu Kyi's National League
for Democracy, but also with the ethnic groups which are in armed conflict
with the junta.

There are now more than 150,000 Burmese in Thai refugee camps, and untold
more Burmese who have come to Thailand to escape the political and
economic situation imposed by the current regime.

An article in Thursday's New York Times by Southeast Asia hand Thomas
Fuller describes a recent consequence of the conflicts, quoting Thai
officials as saying the main reason for an alarming rise in drug
trafficking along the Thai-Burmese border is the deteriorating political
situation in the northernmost regions of Burma. The article says that
armed ethnic groups are selling their stocks of heroin and
methamphetamines to buy more weapons for the heightened offensive by the
Burmese government troops they believe is coming. In recent months
thousands of ethnic Karen villagers have crossed into Thailand to escape
escalating fighting between Burmese forces and Karen rebels. More evidence
of a crackdown against ethnic groups is the assault on the Kokang
ceasefire group in northern Shan State which has resulted in many more
villagers fleeing into China.

The Office of the Narcotics Control Board says in the first 10 months of
this year police have seized 1,268 kilogrammes of heroin in northern
Thailand, compared with 57kg for the same period last year.

The article quoted an agent for the US Drug Enforcement Administration as
saying: ''Various traffickers are liquidating their stockpiles. They are
trying to get large shipments of heroin out, and some have been
successful.''

Several million methamphetamine pills were recently seized in the Burmese
border town of Tachilek, presumably on their way to Thailand. A
representative of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime said there
was ''nothing on that scale last year''.

There are many more reasons why Asean and Thailand in particular should be
at the forefront of reconciliation negotiations with Burma, in
consultation and cooperation with the other concerned international
parties.

On Tuesday last week the US and Burma began a dialogue at the UN building
in New York, but the US has ruled out dropping sanctions at this time. On
Friday a Burmese court rejected an appeal of the decision to extend Mrs
Suu Kyi's house arrest. In a surprise move, yesterday she was taken by
motorcade to talk with Aung Kyi, the labour minister and official liaison
between herself and the government. Details of that meeting are not known,
but it's believed one topic was likely a letter she sent to Senior General
Than Shwe in which she said she was willing to cooperate to get
international sanctions lifted, in exchange for concessions by the
government. No one expects any quick breakthroughs, but the policy of
international engagement is probably a step in the right direction.
Thailand should be involved and bring its considerable political and
economic leverage to the negotiating table.

____________________________________

October 4, Mizzima News
Beijing and Burma no longer best of friends – Larry Jagan

Bangkok – There is a growing rift between the two close allies and
neighbours, China and Burma over their border problems, with relations at
an all-time low. The Burmese junta have cooled towards their main
benefactor, Beijing, with increasing public signs of their
dissatisfaction. Beijing has even issued some unusually forthright
criticism of their neighbour in the past few weeks.

China has also reacted with a diplomatic flurry of activity – in Beijing,
Naypyidaw and New York.  The Chinese are so concerned about the clouds
over their relationship, that they dispatched one of their most seasoned
negotiators, the vice-minister for foreign affairs, Wang Yi to Burma on a
secret mission within the last ten days, according to senior Burmese
officials.

The first signs of the cracks in the relationship appeared when the
Burmese army launched an offensive against the Kokang ethnic rebels who
have had a truce with the regime for twenty years. Thousands of refugees
fled across the border for safety, raising fears of a fresh civil war
along Burma’s northern border and alarming China. Beijing’s attitude to
Burma has also been compounded by concern over the junta’s future
relations with the United States – Beijing is wary of Washington’s offer
to the junta of a dialogue.

“Beijing has been taken aback by the Burmese junta’s cavalier approach to
their normally strong relationship,” said Win Min, a Burmese academic
based at Chiang Mai University. “But it is likely to prove to be a hiccup,
rather than a major shift in relations.”

China has several major concerns, including their massive economic
investment in the country, especially the planned oil pipeline, pumping
oil from the Arakan Sea off the west coast of Burma into China’s southern
province of Yunnan. But Beijing is also concerned about the growing unrest
along their common border, and the safety of the Chinese living in Burma.
Around a quarter of a million Chinese have crossed the border and sought
work and economic opportunities in northern Burma in the last ten years.

Concerns are now mounting for their safety with the deteriorating
situation in the border areas. Last weekend a government-controlled
provincial television channel, which is based in Kunming – the capital of
Yunnan -- broadcast a Chinese government announcement advising all Chinese
citizens in eastern Burma to return home quickly.

This followed a formal complaint from China to Burma days earlier over the
way Chinese citizens living in a border region had been treated during
recent clashes between the Burmese army and the ethnic Kokang militia last
month. In statement issued last week, China's Foreign Ministry said the
recent conflict with the Kokang, in a north-eastern Burmese region
bordering China, had "harmed the rights and interests of Chinese citizens
living there." It also said the Burmese government should make sure
similar incidents do not happen again.

Burma insists that peace has been restored to the area in question, and
most of the refugees who fled to China had returned. But there has still
thousands seeking refuge across the border, not just from the Kokang
areas, according to residents living in China along the border with Burma.
Nearly forty thousand refugees, many of them Chinese businessmen fled into
China when the fighting erupted. They were housed in makeshift camps
provided by the Chinese authorities. Officially these refugees have since
been dispersed, and returned to Burma. “The Kokang capital Laogai, remains
a ghost town,” a recent foreign visitor there told Mizzima. Most of the
main cities and towns are also empty, including the main border city in
the east of Shan state, he added.

Right along the border, from the Kachin areas in the west to the Shan
areas in the east, people have fled into China for fear of renewed
fighting between other ethnic rebel groups, especially the Kachin and the
Wa and the Burmese army, according to Indian entrepreneurs who travel
along this area doing business. “Everyone fears that the twenty-year old
ceasefire agreements have been torn up by the Burmese generals, and a
return to fighting is imminent,” said a Kachin student living in the
Chinese border town of Ruili.

“At moment it does not look as though the Burmese army is about to attack
any of the other ethnic rebel groups that have ceasefire agreements,
though there is a lot of posturing going on,” said Win Min. “There is no
doubt that the regime means to have all the ethnic rebel armies disarm
before next year’s elections and become part of the border guards under
the control of the Burmese army.” The ceasefire groups told Mizzima that
they have until the end of October to comply with the government order to
disarm, and join the Border Police Guard under the control of the Burmese
military, and take part in next year’s planned elections.

Earlier this year the junta sought the assistance of the former
intelligence chief and prime minister, General Khin Nyunt – who was
deposed in October 2004 and is now under house arrest in Rangoon – to help
negotiate with these rebels groups, especially the Wa. Khun Nyunt had
mater-mined these ceasefire agreement some twenty years ago, and was still
trusted by many of the ethnic leaders. He agreed on condition that his men
– some 300 military intelligence officers who were jailed in the aftermath
of Khin Nyunt’s fall – be freed.

The government refused to accept his condition, and turned to the Chinese
– who have extremely close relations with the key ethnic groups along the
border – the Kachin, Kokang and the Wa. The Chinese reluctance to help has
angered the Burmese junta’s leaders.

It is now increasingly evident that a significant rift exits between the
two countries that could have crucial implications for other countries in
the region, and any approach the international community may take to
encourage the Burmese military regime to introduce real political change.

The implications of this growing divergence could have significant affects
on the border region, as the most of the ethnic groups – especially the
Kachin, Kokang and Wa – in this area have ceasefire agreements with the
Burmese junta, but also have traditionally close ties with the Chinese
authorities. Economically and culturally the area is certainly closer to
China than the Burmese regime.

Many of these ethnic leaders go to Chinese hospital across the border for
medical treatment and send their children to school in China. The Chinese
language and even the Chinese currency the Renminbi is used throughout the
Kokang and Wa areas in northern Shan state.

Anything which forces Beijing to choose between their ethnic brothers
inside Burma—the Kokang are ethnically and the Wa, a Chinese ethnic
minority -- and the central government will cause the Beijing immense
problems. And in the end will bring into sharp focus the real nature of
the Burma-China axis.

Beijing is now more worried about Burma’s longer-term allegiance. The
junta has been a China’s key ally and strategic partner in south-east Asia
in the past few years. So the current overtures between Washington and
Burma have dismayed the Chinese leaders, who remain suspicious of the US
interest in re-engaging with the region and increasing its influence –
also fearing it is a return to the old US strategy of containing China.
The region is seen by Beijing as its back-yard, and any competition for
influence is far from welcomed.

China fears that its influence in south-east Asia is waning. Vietnam has
never been a strong supporter, and as far as Beijing is concerned, for
sometime Hanoi’s main interest has been to cosy up to Washington. Recently
Cambodia and Thailand have strengthened their ties with the US, increasing
China’s strategic concerns.

Now its rock-solid ally has begun to flirt with improving relations with
Washington. “China will react with measured nervousness to this unwelcomed
encroachment into Burma,” Justin Wintle, a British expert on Burma and
biographer of Aung San Suu Kyi told Mizzima.

Beijing’s current concerns stem from the unstable basis of their bilateral
relationship. The Chinese government remains suspicious of the Burmese
military junta. “When we meet the Thais, they look Chinese and speak
Chinese, but when we see the Burmese leaders, they don’t speak Chinese and
they look South Asian,” said a senior Chinese government official.

‘Burma and China are not ‘real’ friends – as with Thailand for example,”
he said. “It’s a Machiavellian relationship: we are in for what we can get
out of it, and they are also in it, for what they can get out of it,” he
said.

So according to Chinese diplomats, it is a relationship that could shift
easily. “But it is not likely to become antagonistic anytime soon,” said
Win Min. “Burma is far too economically dependent on China for the
government to really consider ditching Beijing as its main ally.”

More than ninety percent of direct foreign invest in Burma last year was
Chinese. While the western-led sanctions remain in place, that is unlikely
to change in the near future. Sanctions of course now more than ever
rankle with the regime.

"Sanctions are being employed as a political tool against Myanmar and we
consider them unjust," the Burmese prime minister, General Thein Sein told
the UN’s annual General Assembly meeting in New York last month.
Undoubtedly Burma’s interest in a dialogue with the US is motivated by the
regime’s main concerns, to have sanctions lifted, for international
humanitarian and development assistance to flow into the country, and to
attract foreign investment.

“Though generals are certainly unhappy about being too dependent on one
supporter, and will be trying to balance Chinese influence with better
relations with the US as well as other countries –like ASEAN and India,
they will not be looking to cut the umbilical cord with China in the near
future,” said Win Min.

But there is no escaping from the fact that Burma’s military leaders are
upset with Beijing. The Chinese embassy put on a lavish reception for the
massive 60th anniversary of the founding of the Peoples’ Republic of
China. The coverage in the official New Light of Myanmar the next day paid
scant notice to the importance of the occasion or the ambassador’s
address, Instead it noticeably focused on Secretary One’s attendance. This
comes after the Myanmar Times recently was allowed to refer to the Tibetan
spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama when he visited Taiwan, last month. Both
these incidents are clearly signs that the junta wants to rebuke China.

But thinks may already be on the mend after the Chinese envoy’s secret
mission to see Than Shwe recently. China is desperately trying to mend
fences with the junta. One example of this is the diplomatic initiative
China took at the UN Security Council to make sure Burma is not on its
agenda – at least this month.

It looks like the trouble between Burma and China maybe on the wane.
Nevertheless Beijing will be watching with growing concern, any further
overtures between Burma and the US. So far it seems to have been a spat
between two close partners – siblings or even husband and wife, according
to Asian diplomats who have also been following the situation closely.

But in the end it is Burma that may hold the upper hand. China’s economic,
trade and military involvement in Burma gives the junta the upper hand
rather than making them more subservient to Beijing. The issue now is how
far will the junta leaders go in flexing their muscles.