BurmaNet News, October 29, 2009

[Editor]

October 29, 2009 Issue #3829


INSIDE BURMA
RFA: ‘Wave of arrests’ in Burma
Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi ‘keenly monitoring’ Campbell visit

ON THE BORDER
SHAN: Mongla told to resign itself to border guard status

BUSINESS / TRADE
SifyNews (India): ONGC to invest $174 mn in Myanmar

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima News: Nobel Laureates call for action on Burma

OPINION / OTHER
BBC News: Is Burma softening its stance? – Alastair Leithead
The Pioneer via Hindustan Times (India): Burma lives in turmoil
Mizzima News: ASEAN leaders allow Burma to get off scot-free – Larry Jagan

PRESS RELEASE
TBBC: Rising instability in Eastern Burma
HRW: Japan: Protect Burmese Rohingya seeking asylum




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 29, Radio Free Asia
‘Wave of arrests’ in Burma

Bangkok — Burma’s military junta has stepped up detentions of its
political opponents and social activists in recent weeks, with as many as
50 people arrested in the last month, according to activists and
residents.

“In recent days, they have been arresting mainly journalists and former
prisoners,” said Ko Tak Naing, secretary of the rights group Association
for Assistance to Political Prisoners (AAPP), which is based in the
Thai-Burmese border region.

“Amongst the journalists, we are certain at least 10 have been arrested,”
he said.

“They are journalists such as Ko Soe Moe, Ko Nyi Nyi Tun, and Khan Min
Htet, who have been arrested in the last few days.”

Reasons unclear

While activists and local people are unsure of the reason behind the
apparent crackdown, some say it is linked to stepped-up security measures
around the former capital, Rangoon.

Other reported detainees included two young journalists and seven young
men who were actively involved in private relief efforts in the wake of
last year’s devastating Tropical Cyclone Nargis.

Journalists Ko Thant Zin Soe from The Voice weekly magazine and freelance
journalist Ko Paing Soe Oo are believed to have been detained around
midnight on Oct. 27, sources in Rangoon said.

Further detentions were reported at Rangoon’s Cultural University,
according to a resident there.

“They all live in the Sittaung housing estate in the Yuzana Garden city,”
said a woman at the university.

“They were all students attending the university.”

At first the detentions were linked to the students’ failure to register
as overnight guests, but local authorities denied carrying out any
inspections in the area, she said.

“We don’t know why they say this. But they did take the youths away,” she
said.

Nargis links

The seven students are all believed to have been working with a social
organization called Lin Let Kyair, formed two years ago after Nargis
killed an estimated 140,000 people.

Villagers in the worst-hit regions said they have been unable to rebuild
their lives in the wake of the storm, which left millions with no home or
livelihood.

Local and overseas aid workers said Burma’s ruling military junta
deliberately blocked aid to victims of Nargis, and failed to ensure that
fields were ploughed in time for the harvest. It has also jailed a number
of private citizens, some of them well-known, for aiding cyclone victims.

Lin Let Kyair is a nonprofit voluntary social organization that has been
helping victims in poverty-stricken villages to dig wells, build schools
and libraries, and provide educational assistance for children.

New checkpoints

Rangoon residents said a series of checkpoints had been springing up
around Rangoon in recent weeks, with travelers and former political
prisoners under close surveillance.

“In recent days the police have been stopping cars and checking them out
in front of the Tamwe High School,” said the Rangoon resident who lives
near the Cultural University.

“They have been asked to open their trunks. Also at the entrance to Yuzana
Garden they would stop cars and inspect the belongings of the occupants,”
she said.

“They are doing the same at the Central Mall, and in Rangoon at the
traffic light at the front of the [opposition National League for
Democracy] office,” she added.

Authorities were also keeping a close watch on the activities of 7,000
former prisoners, especially those who were political prisoners, who were
released in a recent amnesty.

“Their houses have been specifically picked for search and inspection by
the police,” she said.

Original reporting in Burmese by Ingjin Naing and Son Moe Wai. Burmese
service director: Nancy Shwe. Translated by Soe Thinn. Written for the Web
in English by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Sarah Jackson-Han.
____________________________________

October 29, Irrawaddy
Suu Kyi ‘keenly monitoring’ Campbell visit – Wai Moe and Ko Htwe

Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi said that she is keenly
monitoring the planned visit to Burma of a US delegation to be led by
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt
Campbell, according to a lawyer who met with Suu Kyi on Thursday.

“She told us during the meeting today that she is keenly monitoring Mr
Campbell’s upcoming visit and is interested in when he will come and what
he will do in Burma,” Nyan Win, Suu Kyi’s lawyer, told The Irrawaddy on
Thursday.

Campbell said last week that a US delegation will visit Burma in the
coming weeks. The US State Department announced that Campbell will lead
the delegation, which intends to open a new round of talks with Burma’s
military leaders.

However, Suu Kyi did not make further comment on Campbell’s trip, Nyan Win
said.

Nyan Win and another lawyer, Kyi Wynn, were permitted by Burmese
authorities to meet Suu Kyi for about 90 minutes on Thursday afternoon.
Nyan Win said Suu Kyi discussed the appeal pending over her current term
of house arrest.

Campbell is expected to meet with Suu Kyi, ethnic leaders and government
officials, including U Thaung, the minister of science and technology and
former Burmese ambassador to Washington who met with the assistant US
foreign secretary in September in New York.

However, whether Campbell will meet with Burma’s military chief Snr-Gen
Than Shwe is still unclear as Than Shwe is scheduled to visit Sri Lanka in
November.

After a Burma policy review, the US State Department announced in
September that the US will have direct engagement with the Burmese junta
while US sanctions on Burma will be maintained.

Suu Kyi met with a US representative in Rangoon earlier this month to talk
about the impact of US sanctions on the Burmese regime and the country at
large.

Thursdays’ was the first meeting between Suu Kyi and her lawyers since
Oct. 16. Rangoon Northern District Court rejected on Oct. 2 Suu Kyi’s
appeal against an 18-month extension of her house arrest on charges
related to the intrusion of an American man onto her property.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 29, Shan Herald Agency for News
Mongla told to resign itself to border guard status

Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS), based at Mongla, opposite China’s
Daluo, was “advised” yesterday by Naypyidaw’s chief negotiator to resign
itself to the Border Guard Force (BGF) status, according to an informed
source on the Thai-Burma border.

“We stand by the letter you wrote to us on 23 September,” Lt-Gen Ye Myint
was quoted as saying.

According to the source, who had not seen the letter, Mongla had agreed to
accept the BGF proposal as offered by Naypyidaw.
“It was largely a monologue, with all the Mongla people listening to Ye
Myint, with scarcely an opportunity to express their opinions,” he said.

Practically all of Mongla’s own counter proposals were rejected by the
junta, such as:
•    To become a militia force, where there will be no junta officers to
run the show
•    To conduct the military trainings in Mongla territory
•    To include its Hsaleu (which, according to Naypyidaw, is in Mongyan
township) and Nampan (which, according to Naypyidaw, is included in
Mongyawng) in Mongla township

The Mongla leadership will be holding another meeting with its main ally
United Wa State Army (UWSA) before making its final decision, said the
source.

The question remains whether the Wa, who have lost their northern border
with Kokang to the Burma Army, is ready to let go its southern border with
Mongla.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

October 29, SifyNews (India)
ONGC to invest $174 mn in Myanmar

The overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has been allowed to
make an investment of up to $173.85 million in a hydrocarbon assets in
Myanmar.

The decision was taken at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Economic
Affairs presided over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

The investment has been approved for gas blocks blocks A-1 and A-3 in
Myanmar Natural Gas Development Project by ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL).

The two companies that will benefit from the award of contract are OVL and
GAIL India, both state-owned firms under the administrative control of
India's petroleum and natural gas ministry.

The investment is expected to provide additional reserve accretion of
hydrocarbons and facilitate production and marketing of natural gas.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 29, Mizzima News
Nobel Laureates call for action on Burma – Mungpi

New Delhi - Two Nobel Peace Laureates, Jody Williams and Mairead Maguire,
on Thursday reiterated their call for the immediate release of fellow
Burmese Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, saying without her release
there cannot be genuine change in Burma and the ruling junta’s promises of
reform would be only “sweet words of democracy”.

Jody Williams, who won the 1997 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in
banning landmines, during a press conference on Thursday in New Delhi,
urged the international community and particularly the United States,
which recently announced a new policy of engagement with Burma, to turn
engagement into action and bring genuine change and democracy to the
plighted Southeast Asian country.

“My personal concern about words and not action is that we hear many
‘sweet words of democracy and change’. Sweet words are terrific, but if it
fails to bring change then it is a waste,” Williams remarked.

Williams said the U.S. and the European Union, if they choose to engage
the Burmese regime, must ensure human rights conditions in the country are
improving and should not start talking about an end to sanctions prior to
the release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The U.S. in September announced a new policy on Burma, saying it will
directly engage the Burmese junta while maintaining existing sanctions,
which could be phased-out or tightened depending on the junta’s response
to human rights violations.

Williams, who in February 2003 was allowed a rare meeting with Aung San
Suu Kyi, said the regime must prove their words by setting the Burmese
democracy icon free and allowing her and her party to participate in the
upcoming elections by conducting a review of the 2008 Constitution.

Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein over the weekend told his Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) counterparts he is hopeful that Aung San
Suu Kyi can play a role in national reconciliation and that his government
might consider releasing her from detention if she maintains a “good
attitude”.

Mairead Maguire, who won the 1976 Nobel Peace Prize for her work to bring
peace to Northern Ireland, warned ASEAN not to be too full of praise for
the Burmese junta and instead focus on pressuring the regime for real
changes inside the country.

“The lack of human rights in Burma is a global responsibility – and it is
time to pressure Burma to make real change,” Maguire commented.

Maguire added that Burma can only go forward once it hears the voices of
ethnic political groups and human rights and democracy prevail.

The Laureates, in a press statement, said they support the call of civil
society for “real change” in the lead-up to the elections in 2010,
strongly arguing there can be no credible polling without the release of
Aung San Suu Kyi and the over 2,000 political prisoners.

Williams and Maguire, along with Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi from
Iran, are in India’s capital New Delhi at the invitation of His Holiness
the Dalai Lama to mark the 50th anniversary of Tibetans in exile.

While in New Delhi, the Laureates are also meeting with women from Burma
living in exile in New Delhi.

“We are asking governments to listen to the voice of the people – and
support nonviolent change and democracy in Burma,” said Maguire.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 29, BBC News
Is Burma softening its stance? – Alastair Leithead

This month Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi passed two
milestones.

The first was 14 years - that is the amount of time she has now spent in
detention during the past two decades.

The second was to meet Western diplomats and begin talks with Burmese
military leaders - talks which some think could see her released.

"Given the impasse of the last 20 years, what has happened in the last
three months gives us the hope there will be some movement," says Derek
Tonkin, a former British ambassador and current Burma activist.

There seemed little hope of progress in August, when Burmese pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi, known as The Lady, had her house arrest extended
by 18 months for allowing an uninvited American man to stay in her
lakeside home after swimming to see her.

While the controversial court case was going on, the Obama adminstration
was looking at engagement within a review of its Burma strategy ahead of
elections planned for Burma next year.

This was happening amid the fear of increasing Chinese influence in the
gap left by Western isolation.

'Pragmatic engagement'

Soon after the trial ended, Senator Jim Webb became the most senior US
official to meet Burma's top general, Than Shwe.

He was also allowed to see Aung San Suu Kyi - something even UN Secretary
General Ban Ki-Moon could not do.

As a man reporting back directly to President Barack Obama, his message
that "sanctions hadn't worked" was what the generals wanted to hear.

He emphasised the increased influence of China as well - an Asia-wide
trend that has Washington worried.

The next step was a switch in US policy towards "pragmatic engagement" -
in other words, direct senior level dialogue with the leadership.

US demands include the release of political prisoners, including Ms Suu
Kyi, but what are they offering in return?

The only high-value card is sanctions, and that is what The Lady also used
to open her own talks.

Her recent letter to number one general Than Shwe requested a meeting with
Western diplomats for her to establish what sanctions are in place, and it
was permitted within a week.

"The generals are looking for international recognition for the 2010
election. They are trying to co-opt Aung San Suu Kyi and her National
League for Democracy to take part in the elections without any
constitutional change," said Derek Tonkin.

"We are still waiting for a really significant movement, but I could see
Aung San Suu Kyi being released before the election if they could secure
an understanding."

An end to sanctions?

The message from Burma's Prime Minister Thein Sein at the recent meeting
of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) in Thailand was
that the ruling generals see a role for Ms Suu Kyi in fostering
reconciliation, according to Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva - and
that the conditions of her detention could be relaxed.

Thant Myint-U, a Burmese historian and author whose grandfather was UN
Secretary General U Thant, thinks her early release is possible but
unlikely. He believes the purpose of the talks is partly to find out what
exactly the Burmese want.

"It is extremely unlikely the US Congress will overturn sanctions, but if
the US government thinks the Burma generals are moving in the right
direction there are other things they can do," he said.

"Everything from using the name Myanmar, rather than Burma, to lifting
some of the restrictions the US has on multilateral co-operation to
assistance programmes."

US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell made it clear that dialogue
would supplement rather than replace sanctions.

"We will maintain our existing sanctions until we see concrete progress,"
he told the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs this month.

"We believe any easing of sanctions now would send the wrong signal to
those who have been striving for so many years for democracy in Burma."

Europe's stance

Mark Farmaner, from Burma Campaign UK, which has strongly supported
sanctions, said the US policy of demanding results is what the UN has
failed to do, and will put extreme pressure on the regime.

"Sanctions were always meant to be one of the few tools to give them
leverage to force the generals into talks, but they should not be given
away unless you get something in return," he said.

"One hundred political prisoners of more than 2,000 are seriously ill and
being systematically refused medical treatment. The regime is ruthlessly
pushing ahead with its agenda. You have to look at history and come back
down to earth.

"We are afraid of EU countries pre-emptively lifting sanctions and that
would send the wrong message to the generals," he added.

There doesn't appear to be much fear of that, as the European Union still
has not made an official statement.

Some sources suggest this is because Britain is "dragging its heels" and
urging collective caution.

But Western diplomats say Europe will soon open up its own dialogue with
Burma, following the US lead.

"The elections may not be free and fair, but we need to be there anyway,"
diplomats say, pointing out it's the first opportunity in 20 years for any
change at all, and the West has to position itself to engage with a new
government made up of at least some elected civilians.

So does that mean lifting some European sanctions? Only in co-ordination
with the US policy, but it's understood consideration is being put to the
mechanics of what might be lifted and when.

This could include the re-opening to Burma of special EU trade access for
developing countries, or allowing access to international financial
institutions like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the
Asian Development Bank.

Author Thant Myint-U thinks the ruling generals will balance their image
abroad and better relations with the West against their well-established
plans for a "democratic" Burma.

"There is concern among some quarters in Burma of an over-reliance on
China, and as the US is the only balancer they think it is time to reach
out to the US," he said.

Progress is slow, but as one diplomat said "anything can happen in Burma".

____________________________________

October 29, The Pioneer via Hindustan Times (India)
Burma lives in turmoil

India -- The saga of Aung San Suu Kyi's non-violent struggle for democracy
in Burma defies known descriptions of political courage, and with the
country's military rulers now deciding to use her 'legal status' to their
advantage in an unusual and clearly one-sided game of chess to restore
'democracy', the Nobel Peace Prize laureate faces a qualitatively new
challenge to continue her non-violent struggle for democracy.

The deplorable guilty verdict handed out to Ms Suu Kyi in a case where she
was accused of violating the country's security laws indicates the extreme
lengths that Burma's military rulers are willing to go to keep her out of
public and political life and are bent on a collision course.The denial of
freedom again to the Nobel laureate by a kangaroo court in Burma is
outrageous and deserves to be condemned in the strongest of terms.The
Burmese junta's act of 'reducing' her sentence to another 18 months of
house arrest - after a court sentenced her to three years of detention -
is doubly outrageous. It is obvious that the junta is nervous. It wants to
keep Ms Suu Kyi out of next year's polls.

Although junta had been forced by the international community to hold
election to the country's Parliament next year, the manner in which it
organised a constitutional referendum last year to pave the way for the
poll gave enough indications about its intentions. But the experience of
the 1990 election, swept by Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy and
annulled by the junta, has made the latter nervous. It does not want to
take any chances and will now use the verdict in order to keep her out of
next year's poll, thus denying its people democracy and the rule of law.

Her long years under house arrest shows that the junta cares little about
international opinion. Even threats of sanctions by the United Nations
have not worked mainly because of opposition by China and sometimes Russia
for which both the communist countries should be condemned.

The UN and other countries specially the US and the UK can help the cause
of democracy in Burma only by putting more pressure on its leaders and
their allies elsewhere, instead of doing business with the junta. Next
year's scheduled parliamentary election provides one such opportunity.The
world must use diplomatic and other means to ensure that the junta's will
does not prevail yet again. Published by HT Syndication with permission
from Pioneer.

____________________________________

October 29, Mizzima News
ASEAN leaders allow Burma to get off scot-free – Larry Jagan

A smug Burmese delegation, led by Prime Minister and General Thein Sein,
are back home after attending the 15th annual ASEAN summit in Thailand,
where they successfully accomplished their main mission – to deflect
international criticism and pressure, reveal nothing about the forthcoming
elections and keep a very low-profile.

For the first time in years, the issue of Burma did not dominate the
proceedings of the regional summit. In fact, the presidential statement on
Burma was the mildest it has been for nearly a decade. All the leaders
could agree on was to say that the regional organization hoped Burma’s
national reconciliation process would be inclusive.

"We underscored the importance of achieving national reconciliation and
that the general elections to be held in Myanmar [Burma] in 2010 must be
conducted in a fair, free, inclusive and transparent manner in order to be
credible to the international community," read the president’s statement
at the end of the summit.

Instead of being grilled by fellow Asian leaders at the various meetings –
bilateral encounters, formal sessions, retreats and dinners – the Burmese
leaders could sit quietly at their tables and keep mum. This was a result
in no small way determined by the simmering dispute between Thailand and
Cambodia, which dominated the meeting. Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen
took the limelight when he told journalists as soon as he arrived at the
summit on Friday that the self-exiled former Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin
Shinawatra, was just like Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

As a result, the testy relations between the current Thai prime minister
and the Cambodian leader did Thein Sein a favor – as he was almost left
alone, except for Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who wanted to remind
Burma that they had promised to make sure their common border remained
calm after the recent fighting in northern Burma and the mass exodus of
thousands of Kokang refugees into Yunnan some two months ago.

Prime Minister Thein Sein and Foreign Minister Nyan Win also repeatedly
dodged journalists waiting on the sidelines of the meeting in the southern
Thai resort area of Cha-am. While every other delegation gave press
briefings and interviews, the Burmese delegation refused every
opportunity.

Impact of U.S. policy review

But some things did emerge from these meetings that may have an impact on
the Burmese democracy roadmap and the forthcoming elections. There is
certainly a recognition that the international situation regarding Burma
has shifted significantly since the United States announced its policy
review last month, suggesting the way forward as a combination of dialogue
and sanctions.

“We are aware of a new era of hope and that there will be some
normalization of relations between Burma and the United States, which we
welcome,” Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh told Mizzima when asked
about India’s policy towards Burma on the last day of the summit.

Thailand’s Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, was even more forthright,
preferring to see the U.S. move as a vindication of the region’s soft
approach to Burma. "ASEAN has always argued that engagement is the right
approach. We feel that if everybody takes this approach we would be
encouraging Myanmar [Burma] in her successful implementation of her own
roadmap [to democracy]," Abhisit told journalists.

With the ASEAN summit coming only weeks after the U.S. announcement, it
was always going to be easy for the Burmese delegation. And they seemed to
know it – being the first delegation to arrive in Hua Hin, early in the
afternoon a day early.

Meanwhile, the U.S. offer of dialogue with the regime has thrown other
actors within the international community into disarray, raising
increasing questions about how the U.N. and ASEAN can help Burma’s
reconciliation process. For the U.N., it would seem this is the end of the
road. But there may still be a role for ASEAN, and China certainly is keen
to stay involved.

Election law coming

So what emerged from the Burmese delegation? The most important message
Thein Sein seems to have brought from the Burma’s military leader, Senior
General Than Shwe, was that the electoral law is being completed – though
most analysts believe it was actually finished at least a year ago, if not
much earlier – and will soon be made public.

“General Thein Sein said the electoral law will be announced very soon,”
Abhisit told Mizzima after his bilateral meeting with the Burmese leader
on the first day of the summit. But the Burmese Prime Minister provided no
further details, he added.

Not really news. Everyone in Rangoon understands the electoral law is
ready and should be published soon; though it seems certain it has been
delayed by the recent U.S. policy review, as Than Shwe decides on a
revised game plan.

What is also clear is that all Asia wants to see real national
reconciliation take place in Burma and for that to happen the elections
next year will have to be inclusive, fair and free. “The Myanmar [Burmese]
government says the election next year will be inclusive, free and fair,”
Thailand’s Foreign Minister, Kasit Piromya, told Mizzima after he and the
Thai Premier met their counterparts in the first bilateral tête-à-tête of
the summit.

But the ASEAN leaders had obviously made up their minds before the summit
that whatever the Burmese regime said they would spin as best possible.
“There’s been progress towards national reconciliation and movement on the
roadmap recently,” Thailand’s Foreign Minister said in response to a
question from Mizzima.

“There’s been 7,000 political prisoners released,” added the Thai Foreign
Minister, “or at least that is the figure I heard.” Of course, according
to the Burmese regime there are no political prisoners. In any case, of
the 7,114 prisoners released, less than 250 were political prisoners,
according to human rights groups that monitor the situation in Burma.

The other signs of progress towards national reconciliation that Thein
Sein, at every opportunity, offered his counterparts, was that dialogue is
taking place with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. “She has
been able to meet the government [Labor Minister Aung Kyi] twice recently,
and several diplomats. This is movement,” Kasit boldly told Mizzima.

However, few in Burma would agree with him. But apparently all the heads
of state and foreign ministers, including the Indian representatives,
preferred to look on the bright side and accept the regime’s protestations
at face value.

Aung San Suu Kyi

But what of the fate of the pro-democracy leader and Nobel Peace laureate?
There Thein Sein played his best cards – using innuendos and implications
to put the best possible spin on her intolerable situation, even though
the opposition leader was recently sentenced to a further 18 months under
house arrest on trumped up charges stemming from a security breach related
to an unwanted visit by U.S. citizen John Yettaw to Suu Kyi’s estate. Some
diplomats even said Thein Sein never actually used The Lady’s name in any
of the meetings, though still apparently convincing at least the Thai
Prime Minister that the military government had not ruled out a role for
her.

“[Thein Sein] briefed us on some of the dialogue that is taking place and
he feels optimistic that she can contribute also to the process of
national reconciliation," Abhisit told a press conference at the end of
the summit.

This follows an even more optimistic account of Thein Sein’s views a day
earlier by Kazuo Kodama, the official spokesperson for Yukio Hatoyama, the
Japanese Prime Minister. “She is under house arrest and the Prime Minister
[said] if she continues to take a good attitude then it is possible that
there will be a relaxation of the measures on her,” Kodama told
journalists at his press conference in Hua Hin.

“Myanmar's [Burma’s] government believes that Aung San Suu Kyi seems to
have softened her attitude towards the authorities,” said the Japanese
spokesperson following Thein Sein’s briefing of an ASEAN+3 meeting, which
includes China, Japan and South Korea in addition to the ten ASEAN
members.

Kodama said that the Burmese regime "thinks if Aung San Suu Kyi maintains
a good attitude it is possible that the Myanmar [Burma] authorities will
relax the current measures.”

Elections are the answer

In the end, Asia’s leaders all seemed to agree that next year’s the
planned elections will be the panacea for all Burma’s ills. Dr. Manmohan
Singh told Mizzima that all the problems in Burma – a possible civil war
with ethnic groups, human rights abuses and even the growing border
tension with Bangladesh – would be solved through next year’s elections.
While less sanguine, most other Asian leaders also opted to put their
faith in the next year’s planned elections.

At the foreign ministers private dinner on Thursday night, Nyan Win
assured his ASEAN counterparts that the election would meet the standards
demanded by the international community, according to diplomats who
attended the function. Thein Sein is also quoted by those who heard his
briefing that next year’s election will be inclusive – though he never
mentioned whether that means Aung San Suu Kyi would be freed and able to
stand.

The ASEAN approach seems to be to give the Burmese junta enough rope to
hang themselves. This is the regime’s last chance: they promised free and
fair elections, so they will be held accountable for that. The buzzword
though is ‘credible’. “They [Burma’s military rulers] recognize full well
that we expect to see inclusive and credible elections,” said Abhisit. And
we stand ready to help them in whatever way they want.”

China, of course, privately wants the same thing. “China adheres to the
principle of national reconciliation and unity, by promoting political
dialogue and consultation between the government and the opposition,” said
Dr. Li Xuecheng at the Chinese Institute of Strategic Studies. “China is
willing to work together with all the relevant parties, including
opposition political parties, to make the 2010 elections a success.”

More than 200 Chinese government and private companies along China’s
southeast coastal strip are planning to invest heavily in Burma after
deciding Vietnam does not offer the investment incentives that Burma does.
But they are all waiting for the elections, which they hope will bring
about a new era of legitimacy and stability, according to Chinese
academics and diplomats based in the region who closely follow Burmese
affairs.

So, while the Burmese delegation may have slinked away from the ASEAN
summit relatively unscathed this time, they may now find it impossible to
meet the region’s expectations. But ASEAN’s approach of giving the regime
the benefit of the doubt should worry the master military tactician in
Naypyitaw. There is a limit to how often he can pull the wool over his
neighbors’ eyes, and this is surely it.

On the other hand, if the ASEAN approach helps to make next years’
elections inclusive, free and fair, it will prove to be an astute
diplomatic move. The fear remains, however, because of past precedents,
that ASEAN’s leaders simply wanted to avoid confrontation.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

October 29, Thailand Burma Border Consortium
Rising instability in Eastern Burma

Bangkok - During this sixtieth anniversary year of the Geneva Conventions,
Israel’s military assault on Gaza and Sri Lanka’s refusal to distinguish
between Tamil combatants and civilians have been high profile challenges
to the relevance of international humanitarian law.  Out of the media
spotlight, the Burmese Army similarly persists in breaking the rules of
war by indiscriminately attacking civilians and causing massive
displacement.  Indeed, aid agencies report that threats to human security
in eastern Burma are increasing.

“After 25 years of responding to the consequences of conflict in eastern
Burma, it is tragic to see the causes remain unaddressed and the situation
is likely to further deteriorate during the next twelve months.  A recent
influx of refugees into Thailand and monitoring reports from internally
displaced communities indicate that violence and abuse in eastern Burma
are increasing”, said Jack Dunford, Executive Director of the Thailand
Burma Border Consortium (TBBC).

TBBC is an alliance of twelve aid agencies from ten countries working to
provide food, shelter, non-food items and capacity building support to
Burmese refugees and displaced persons.  The humanitarian agency has just
released findings from field surveys about conflict and displacement
conducted with over 3,100 households during the past 5 years in rural
areas of eastern Burma.

The main threats to human security in eastern Burma are related to
militarisation. Military patrols and landmines are the most significant
and fastest growing threat to civilian safety and security, while forced
labour and restrictions on movement are the most pervasive threats to
livelihoods.  Trend analysis suggests that the threats to both security
and livelihoods have increased during the past five years.

Over 3,500 villages and hiding sites in eastern Burma have been destroyed
or forcibly relocated since 1996, including 120 communities between August
2008 and July 2009.  The scale of displaced villages is comparable to the
situation in Darfur and has been recognised as the strongest single
indicator of crimes against humanity in eastern Burma.  At least 75,000
people were forced to leave their homes during this past year, and more
than half a million people remain internally displaced.

The highest rates of recent displacement were reported in northern Karen
areas and southern Shan State.  Almost 60,000 Karen villagers are hiding
in the mountains of Kyaukgyi, Thandaung and Papun Townships, and a third
of these civilians fled from artillery attacks or the threat of Burmese
Army patrols during the past year. Similarly, nearly 20,000 civilians from
30 Shan villages were forcibly relocated by the Burmese Army in
retaliation for Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) operations in Laikha, Mong
Kung and Keh Si Townships.

Thailand’s National Security Council recently acknowledged it was
preparing for another mass influx of refugees due to conflict in Burma’s
border areas leading up to the proposed elections in 2010.  Conflict has
already intensified in Karen State with over 4,000 Karen refugees fleeing
into Thailand during June.  The increased instability is related to
demands that ethnic ceasefire groups transform into Border Guard Forces
under Burmese Army command.  Such pressure has already resulted in the
resumption of hostilities in the Kokang region which caused 37,000
civilians to flee into China.

“The breakdown of 20 year old ceasefire agreements reflects how the
Burmese junta’s ‘road map to democracy’ offers no political settlement for
the ethnic minority groups.  Whether next year’s elections provide a small
window of opportunity or merely entrench military rule, there is an urgent
need to address ethnic grievances in order to promote national
reconciliation and solutions for displaced persons”, said Mr Dunford.


Enquiries : Sally Thompson (+66) 022385027, or (+66) 0898508457

“Protracted Displacement and Militarisation in Eastern Burma” is available
from www.tbbc.org/resources/resources.htm

____________________________________

October 29, Human Rights Watch
Japan: Protect Burmese Rohingya seeking asylum

Japan's new administration should protect Burmese Rohingya asylum seekers
in Japan and press Burma to end abuses against the minority group, eight
Japanese and international organizations said today. The groups sent a
joint letter to the newly inaugurated justice minister, Keiko Chiba, and
foreign minister, Katsuya Okada.

"Tokyo's silence sends a message to Burma's generals that their horrendous
persecution of the Rohingya can continue," said Kanae Doi, Tokyo director
at Human Rights Watch. "Japan's new government should urgently review its
policies to protect the Rohingya both in Japan and in Burma."

The organizations urged Chiba to rescind deportation orders that would
return asylum seekers to Burma and to grant Special Residential Permits to
Rohingya in Japan. Over the past decade, more than 110 Rohingya have made
their way to Japan, mainly by air, and petitioned the Japanese government
for asylum. While there have been no reports of forcible repatriation of
Rohingya asylum seekers to Burma, many Rohingya in Japan have been denied
refugee status, detained, and issued deportation orders.

The organizations called upon Okada to press the Burmese military
government to end human rights violations against the Rohingya and grant
them full citizenship rights. Abuses against the Rohingya include
extrajudicial killings, forced labor, religious persecution, and
restrictions on movement, all exacerbated by a draconian citizenship law
that leaves the Rohingya stateless. Japan has long been reluctant to exert
pressure on Burma's senior leadership on human rights issues.

The letter was signed by Amnesty International Japan, Arakan Rohingya
Organization-Japan (JARO), the Lawyers' Group for Burmese Refugee
Applicants, the Burmese Rohingya Association in Japan, the Christian
Coalition for Refugee and Migrant Workers (CCRMW), the People's Forum on
Burma, BurmaInfo, and Human Rights Watch.

Human Rights Watch also issued the Japanese translation of the 12-page
photo essay and report, "Perilous Plight: Burma's Rohingya Take to the
Seas," today. The report examines the causes of the exodus of Rohingya
from Burma and Bangladesh, and their treatment once in flight to Southeast
Asian countries. The report documents the persecution and human rights
violations against the Rohingya inside Burma, especially in Arakan state,
persisting for over 20 years, with insufficient international attention.

The eight organizations will hold a public event today in Tokyo around the
report and the treatment of Rohingya asylum seekers in Japan.

"The Rohingyas have faced persecution in Burma and mistreatment in the
countries where they seek refuge," Doi said. "The Japanese government
should ensure their protection in Japan."