BurmaNet News, November 10, 2009

[Editor]

November 10, 2009 Issue #3837


INSIDE BURMA
DVB: Suu Kyi release met with skepticism
Kachin News Group: Junta readies 300,000 troops to eliminate ethnic rebels
New Light of Myanmar: Those from US and British embassies visited NLD
(Headquarters) 27 times in October

ON THE BORDER
Xinhua: Two former ethnic peace groups in Myanmar re-formed into frontier
forces

BUSINESS / TRADE
Xinhua: Myanmar, China to establish direct banking system in border trade

ASEAN
The Philippine Star: US says it won't let Burmese tail wag Asean dog
AFP: Singapore hails 'breakthrough' summit with US, Myanmar

REGIONAL
New Light of Myanmar: Prime Minister General Thein Sein attends 1st
Mekong-Japan Summit
AFP: Myanmar junta chief to visit Sri Lanka: official

INTERNATIONAL
Straits Times: Obama to appeal on Suu Kyi
Mizzima News: Rights groups want UNSC to protect children in Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Nudging the junta toward Democracy – Kyaw Zwa Moe

PRESS RELEASE
Arakan Rivers Network: India-Burma transport project to devastate local
livelihoods and cultures





____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 10, Democratic Voice of Burma
Suu Kyi release met with skepticism – Joseph Allchin

Comments made by a Burmese government official that detained opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi could soon be released have been greeted with
skepticism by party members.

The announcement was made by the director general of Burma’s foreign
ministry, Min Lwin, as he boarded a plane in Manila, Philippines. He said
that the junta may allow her to play a role in elections next year.

Suu Kyi was sentenced in August to a further 18 months under house arrest,
which looked set to keep her away from any involvement in the elections.

Members of her National League for Democracy (NLD) party have however
remained wary of heightened expectations following the comment.

“I am a little bit cautious about when and how she would be free” said Nyo
Ohn Myint, foreign affairs secretary of the NLD–Liberated Areas (NLD-LA),
while NLD spokesperson Nyan Win said that he “hopes it comes true”.

Several clauses in Burma’s controversial 2008 constitution appear to
prohibit her involvement in elections. The government has said that anyone
married to a foreigner or previously incarcerated cannot compete for
office, and Suu Kyi falls into both those categories.

“The problem is, the 2008 constitution does not really allow the other
political stakeholders to have their say, but we will decide our
priorities when she is free,” Nyo Ohn Myint said.

The NLD won more than 80 percent of votes in the last elections to be held
in Burma in 1990, following which Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest.

The last time she was free, in 2003, a convoy she was travelling in was
attacked by junta-backed thugs, who killed around 70 of her supporters.
The government again imprisoned her following the incident, citing fears
over her own safety.

Khin Ohnmar, from the Thailand-based Burma Partnership, said however that
it was unlikely she would be freed anytime soon.

“I doubt they will actually release her, and from their side it’s too soon
to give in after the meeting with the Americans,” she said.

Last week the most senior-level US delegation to visit Burma since 1995
met with both the Burmese prime minister and Suu Kyi.

Since the US announced a new era of engagement with the regime, the
military generals appear to have somewhat eased restrictions on political
opposition in Burma, although some critics believe this to be merely a
public relations exercise.

“It may be the same old tactic, but letting her go is so dangerous for the
regime because people would be questioning why, and that’s a real problem
for them,” said Khin Ohmar.

____________________________________

November 10, Kachin News Group
Junta readies 300,000 troops to eliminate ethnic rebels

The Burmese military junta is secretly readying special troops totaling
300,000 for the elimination of ethnic rebels after the 2010 elections in
the country, said sources close to senior Burmese military officers in
capital Naypyidaw.

Young, active and healthy soldiers from Burmese Army battalions in the
country have been selected for the special force, which is being mobilized
to eliminate ethnic armed groups, which rejected the junta-proposed Border
Guard Force (BGF), said a retired military officer whose son is in the
special force.

A Naypyidaw insider said, the special troops are being imparted special
military training in the name of "upgrading military training" in
different military bases in the country.

The junta proposes to declare the ethnic rebels, who rejected the Burmese
Army-controlled BGF, as illegal armed groups after next year’s elections,
which it plans to win, said Burmese military insiders.

Civil war will erupt in the ethnic rebel areas soon after the
announcement, said sources close to the Burmese military.

The junta's No. 2 Vice Senior General Maung Aye has already informed
Burmese troops to eliminate all ethnic armed groups including the Kachin
Independence Organization (KIO), according to KIO officials.

Burmese army deserters in Northeast Shan State recently told KNG, that the
Burmese Army has already transported unique chemical-laced mortar shells
to its military bases in Mongkoe areas the former territory of Mongkoe
Defense Army (MDA) led by Mungsa La.
The soldiers have explained the effects of the chemical-laced mortar
shells -- temporarily feeling faint, difficulty in breathing and loss of
vision. The shells cannot be used without orders from senior military
officers.

Sources close to Naypyidaw military officers said, the junta is now
learning how Cambodia eliminated Khmer Rouge rebels and Sri Lanka
eliminated Tamil Tiger rebels.

____________________________________

November 10, New Light of Myanmar
Those from US and British embassies visited NLD (Headquarters) 27 times in
October

Yangon, Myanmar — The National League for Democracy (Headquarters) has
kept in touch with the US and British embassies and is following their
instructions. The people are criticizing such act of NLD and keeping a
watchful eye on it.

Those from US and British embassies visited the NLD (Headquarters) on West
Shwegondine street here 27 times in October 2009. During their visits,
they met with CEC members of the party and gave small and large envelops
and parcels to the latter. – MNA

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 10, Xinhua
Two former ethnic peace groups in Myanmar re-formed into frontier forces

Yangon -- Two former ethnic peace groups -- New Democratic Army-Kachin
(NDA-K) in Kachin State Special Region-1 and Kayinni Nationalities
People's Liberation Front (KNPLF) in Kayah State Special Region-2 have
been re-formed into frontier forces by the government, state-run Myanmar
Radio and Television reported Tuesday evening.

The two peace groups are the first to have been reformed into such border
guard forces.

Ceremonies were respectively held in some areas of the regions on Sunday
to mark the transformation to the frontier forces, attended by the
government's local military commanders and hundreds of local people, the
report said.

The report added that the former peace groups were so transformed so as to
enable them to hold arms legally under the command of the government armed
forces.

The NDA-K, led by Sakhone Ting Ying, ceased fire with the government in
December 1989, while the KNPLF did so in May 1994.

In Kachin state, there established some two special regions for the
resettlement of Kachin ethnic peace groups after they returned to the
government's legal fold about 15 years ago with the New Democratic Army
(NDA-Kachin) in Kachin State Special Region-1 and KIO in Kachin State
Special Region-2.

In Kayah state, there are three special regions.

Since the present government came to power in late 1988, 17
anti-government major ethnic armed groups and over 20 small groups were
claimed to have returned to the legal fold by signing respective ceasefire
agreements with the government.

Some of the armed groups were resettled with special regions with arms
retained, conditionally enjoying self-administration.

Under the government's fifth step of its seven-step roadmap announced in
2003, a multi-party democracy general election is to be held in 2010 in
accordance with the 2008 new state constitution to produce parliament
representatives and form a new civilian government.

The 2008 new state constitution prescribes that all the armed forces in
the union shall be under the command of the Defense Services.

Meanwhile, the government urged ethnic peace groups in the country to
adhere to the provisions of the approved new state constitution in the
light of upcoming general election next year.

"The national race armed groups will have to reconsider formation of their
political parties if they wish to work for their regional development
within the framework of the constitution," official media said.

There also remains 10 legal political parties in Myanmar.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 10, Xinhua
Myanmar, China to establish direct banking system in border trade

Yangon -- Myanmar and Chinese bank authorities are to establish direct
banking system between the two countries in a bid to facilitate
transaction in border trade, traders circle said on Tuesday.

Commercial banks from Myanmar will link its counterparts from Ruili and
Jie Guo from China for the move starting next year, the sources said.

Bilateral border trade payments were settled in cash during the past
decade, it added.

Myanmar has five border trade points with China, namely Muse, Lwejei,
Laizar, Chinshwehaw and Kambaiti.

Meanwhile, Myanmar will add one more border trade zone in Yan Lone Chai
township of Kokang region, the country's northern Shan State, to
facilitate trading between the region and China, earlier report said.

Once the Yan Lone Chai border trade zone is completed, it will help
enhance the economic development of Laukkai and the Kokang as a whole as
the border trade zone can be accessible by direct road link with Lashio,
Kuttkai and Theini townships.

Myanmar-China border trade fair has been held annually and alternately in
the two countries' border town of Muse and Ruili since 2001 and the last
event was in Muse in December 2008.

Myanmar exports to China through Muse border trade zone farm produce such
as rice, beans and pulses, corn and sesame, fruits such as mango,
watermelon and muskmelon, and marine products such as fish, prawn and eel,
minerals such as lead and jade, and timber and forest products, while
importing from China iron, steel, construction materials, machine and
machine tools, computer an accessories, farm implements, fertilizer, raw
materials and household utensils.

According to Chinese official statistics, China-Myanmar bilateral trade
amounted to 2.626 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, up26.4 percent. Of the
total, China's export to Myanmar took 1.978 billion dollars.

Up to the end of 2008, China's contracted investment in Myanmar reached
1.331 billion dollars, of which that in mining, electric power and oil and
gas respectively took 866 million dollars, 281 million dollars and 124
million dollars.

China now stands the 4th in Myanmar's foreign investment line-up.

____________________________________
ASEAN

November 10, The Philippine Star
US says it won't let Burmese tail wag Asean dog – Jose Katigbak

WASHINGTON – US President Barrack Obama is meeting with all 10
member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at a
summit in Singapore, despite its strained relationship with Myanmar.

National Security Council senior director for East Asian Affairs Jeffrey
Bader said the meeting, which will happen on the sidelines of the annual
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference on Nov. 15 in
Singapore, will be a first between a US president and ASEAN leaders.

Bader said the country’s tense diplomatic relations with Myanmar under the
Bush administration has prevented interaction with ASEAN as a whole.

ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

“The statement we’re trying to make here is that we’re not going to let
the Burmese tail wag the ASEAN dog. We’re going to meet with all 10, and
we’re not going to punish the other nine simply because Burma is in the
room,” he said.

He said the meeting was not called for the purpose of a bilateral or a
private conversation between the US and the military-run state.

For years, the US has imposed several economic sanctions against Myanmar
for widespread violation of human rights, banning all imports, freezing
the regime’s assets deposited in US banks, and imposing a visa ban.

The US demands the release of democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San
Suu Kyi as a precondition for lifting some of the sanctions.

 Deputy National Security adviser for strategic communications Ben Rhodes
said Obama recognizes the importance of US relations with the regional
bloc because he is the first US President with an Asia-Pacific
orientation, having spent a large part of his childhood in Hawaii and
Indonesia.

“He understands that the future of our prosperity and our security is very
much tied to this part of the world
 and I think one of the central
messages that he wants to send through this trip is that the United States
intends to be a leader in this region in the 21st century on the full
range of issues,” Rhodes said.
____________________________________

November 10, Agence France-Presse
Singapore hails 'breakthrough' summit with US, Myanmar – Martin Abbugao

Singapore — A weekend summit involving US President Barack Obama and the
premier of military-ruled Myanmar will be a "breakthrough" in ties between
Southeast Asia and the United States, Singapore said Tuesday.

"The US has decided that its ASEAN policy will not be determined by its
policy towards Myanmar," Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo said,
referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

"It's a breakthrough because previous attempts at hosting a summit meeting
were prevented because of the Myanmar issue."

Yeo was speaking to reporters at annual meetings of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Singapore, culminating in a weekend
summit of 21 APEC leaders including Obama.

After the APEC summit concludes on Sunday, ASEAN's 10 leaders, including
Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein, are scheduled to hold an unprecedented
meeting with the US president.

Hopes for US-ASEAN leaders' summits have previously foundered on
Washington's refusal to sit down with Myanmar's junta because of its
suppression of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League For Democracy
(NLD).

But the US administration last week sent senior officials to the isolated
state in a bid to promote a new dialogue after years of shunning the
junta.

Top Obama aide Jeffrey Bader said Monday the United States would no longer
allow its longstanding differences with Myanmar to hold its ties with the
rest of Southeast Asia hostage.

"The statement we're trying to make here is that we're not going to let
the Burmese tail wag the ASEAN dog," Bader, the senior official for Asia
on Obama's National Security Council, told reporters in Washington.

ASEAN has long been accused of ignoring human rights abuses in Myanmar.
But as the United States has kept its distance, China has been busy
deepening its own economic and diplomatic links with the fast-developing
region.

Yeo, whose country is hosting both the APEC and ASEAN-US summits, said:
"The US is now in direct talks with Myanmar, not all of it is publicised."

A draft of the post-summit statement obtained by AFP said the ASEAN
leaders "welcomed the high-level dialogue" and the new US policy to engage
Myanmar.

"The leaders expressed their hope that this effort would contribute to
broad political and economic reforms and the process will be further
enhanced in the future," the draft communique said.

It said the ASEAN and US leaders "underscored the importance of achieving
national reconciliation" and that Myanmar elections to be held next year
should be "free, fair, inclusive and transparent" to be credible.

The draft did not mention Suu Kyi or the NLD but it said the regime should
"create the conditions for credible elections by initiating a dialogue
with all stakeholders to ensure that the process is fully inclusive".

Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean said in Singapore that he supported
the US efforts to reach out to Myanmar, which is a member of ASEAN but not
of the larger APEC grouping.

"We welcome it, we encourage it... the fact that the US has embarked upon
this new initiative is very welcome," Crean said.

"We've never seen sanctions as a solution against Myanmar because it hurts
the people," he said.

"What we've been trying to do is to get the necessary political reforms,
the human rights reforms through other forms of pressure, political
pressure."

However, US officials caution that the administration will not lift US
sanctions until Myanmar's military leadership embraces change, and have no
expectations of progress soon.

Top of the list of US demands is for the junta to immediately release Suu
Kyi, who has spent two decades under house arrest.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 10, New Light of Myanmar
Prime Minister General Thein Sein attends 1st Mekong-Japan Summit

Nay Pyi Taw – Prime Minister of the Union of Myanmar General Thein Sein,
on 6 November evening, attended the 1St Mekong-Japan Summit at the
Japanese Prime Minister's office in Tokyo of Japan.

The summit was attended by Prime Minister of Cambodia Samdech Hun Sen,
Prime Minister of Japan Mr Yukio Hatoyama, Prime Minister of Lao People's
Democratic Republic Mr Bouasone Bouphavanh, Prime Minister of Thailand Mr
Abhisit Vejjajiva, Prime Minister of Socialist Republic of Vietnam Mr
Nguyen Tan Dung, ministers, deputy ministers, and senior officials from
Cambodia, Japan, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.

Japanese PM and PMs of Mekong Region countries had documentary photos
taken before the summit.

Japanese Prime Minister gave an opening address, presiding over the
summit. Next, PMs of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam
exchanged views on development of regional infrastructures and human
resources, environmental conservation and climate change, promotion of
trade and investment, disaster management, promotion of tourism industry,
further cementing of Mekong-Japan friendship and mutual cooperation
between Mekong countries and Japan. The first day session of the summit
came to an end at 7 pm.— MNA

____________________________________

November 10, Agence France Presse
Myanmar junta chief to visit Sri Lanka: official

Colombo – Myanmar's junta leader General Than Shwe will visit Sri Lanka
this week for bilateral talks and to tour Buddhist shrines, the foreign
ministry said Tuesday.

The reclusive leader will arrive Thursday at the invitation of Sri Lankan
President Mahinda Rajapakse, a ministry official said, asking not to be
named because she was not authorised to speak to the media.

It will be Than Shwe's first visit to the island, the official said,
adding that no Myanmar head of state had visited the country for over a
decade.

Sri Lanka and Myanmar practise the Theravada Buddhist traditions and have
had cultural and religious ties since the 11th century.

Than Shwe is to fly to the central district of Kandy on Thursday for a
two-day tour of Buddhist temples and meetings with senior Sri Lankan
officials.

He is due to tour Buddhist relics in the north-central district of
Anuradhapura on Saturday, before flying to Colombo that same evening.

The junta leader is due to leave Colombo on Sunday after receiving
blessings from Buddhist monks at a temple just outside the capital, the
official said.

President Rajapakse visited Myanmar in June and thanked the junta for
providing relief supplies for Sri Lankan civilians displaced during the
final stages of fighting between troops and separatist Tamil rebels
earlier this year.

In May, Sri Lanka defeated the Tamil Tigers, who had been fighting for a
separate homeland for minority Tamils from the majority Sinhalese
community.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 10, Straits Times
Obama to appeal on Suu Kyi – Chua Chin Hon , Bhagyashree Garekar

Washington, D.C. – United States President Barack Obama will make a
personal plea for the release of Myanmarese opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi at his summit with Asean leaders in Singapore on Sunday, a senior
Administration official told The Straits Times.

Asked if Mr Obama will press for the freedom of the jailed opposition
leader, the official said in an interview on Monday: 'I think he will.
That will be in the context of all political prisoners. Of course, she is
the most prominent among them. He will probably mention her by name.'

The US has always allied with international calls for Ms Suu Kyi's release
but lending Mr Obama's considerable personal heft to the appeal is likely
to turn up the pressure on the junta.

Ms Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate, has been under house arrest for the
past 14 years. Her National League for Democracy won Myanmar's last
elections in 1990 but the military junta refused to recognise the result.

Yangon periodically hints at her release. On Monday, a foreign ministry
official said there was a plan to release her 'soon' ahead of elections
next year.

____________________________________

November 10, Mizzima News
Rights groups want UNSC to protect children in Burma – Salai Pi Pi

New Delhi – Rights groups have demanded that the United Nations Security
Council Working Group closely monitor the progress of work on eliminating
violations against children and the use of child soldiers in
military-ruled Burma.

While supporting the conclusion of the SCWG on Children and Armed Conflict
on Burma, four rights groups including London-based Coalition to Stop the
Use of Child Soldiers, released a joint statement on Monday calling for
the immediate implementation of UNSC’s resolutions on Burma.

“The limited measures so far taken by the government [Burmese junta] have
failed to bring an end to recruitment and use of children by the armed
forces or prevented other grave violations against them,” said a joint
statement quoting data collected by NGOs working inside Burma.

“It is thus imperative that the SCWG closely monitor the situation to
ensure its recommendations are implemented without delay,” the statement
added.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has listed the Burmese Army and several
ethnic armed groups in his reports to the Security Council as violating
international standards prohibiting the recruitment and use of child
soldiers.

UNSC on August 4 unanimously adopted a new landmark resolution on children
and armed conflict and called upon Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to expand
his "list of shame" on the recruitment and use of children in armed
forces.

Earlier, the SCWG had called all parties, the Burmese Army and ethnic
armed groups, to agree to time-bound action plans to end the recruitment
and use of child soldiers; to end the impunity with which violence is
perpetrated on children; and to provide full and unimpeded access to all
areas of Myanmar [Burma] to facilitate the monitoring and reporting of
violations and to assist victims more effectively.

Aung Myo Min, Director of Thailand based Human Rights and Education
Institute of Burma (HREIB) said the Burmese military regime did not allow
the UN Country Task Force including the ILO to see the conditions in armed
conflict areas, despite some ethnic armed group such as Karen National
Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and Chin National
Front (CNF) willing to cooperate with the UN.

“As they [Country Task Force] were not allowed to access the conflict
areas, the work is delayed,” Aung Myo Min told Mizzima on Tuesday.

“There is no sign of decrease in the number of child soldiers recruited
and used in the army,” he added.

Aung Myo Min said around 30 children from Pegu division north of former
capital Rangoon were forcibly recruited in the Burmese Army in the last
three months.

The joint statement said the recent outbreak of fighting in Kokang in
northern Shan state and Karen areas in eastern Burma had   worsened the
already grave situation for children in Burma and called for an urgent
need to step up the protection of children’s rights.

It also warned that in the run up to the 2010 elections, the Burmese
regime is pushing ‘cease-fire groups’ to transform into border guard
forces” under Burmese Army control. This has resulted in an upswing in
violence in some of the conflict and ceasefire areas placing children at
increased risk of human rights abuses.

“If no progress is achieved by the end of this year, the SCWG should
consider imposing a three-month time frame for specific steps to be
taken,” the statement said.

The four organizations are Thailand based Human Rights and Education
Institute of Burma (HREIB), Karen Human Rights Group (KHRG) and New York
based Watch List on Children and Armed Conflict.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 9, Irrawaddy
Nudging the junta toward Democracy – Kyaw Zwa Moe

Burma’s ruling junta has yet to disclose its plans for next year’s
election, but it’s not too early to start asking if there is a chance,
however remote, that the generals will allow the vote to be free and fair,
and what can be done to make this happen.

So far, the regime has revealed few details about how or even when it will
conduct the election. Speculation is rife about possible polling dates,
but past experience suggests it will be sometime in the first half of the
year. May seems especially likely, since that was the month when both the
last election in 1990 and the constitutional referendum in 2008 were held.
This is also when most schools are closed, meaning that
students—historically regarded by Burma’s authoritarian rulers as
troublemakers—will not be gathered in large numbers.

Ultimately, the date, like everything else about the election, will be
decided by the junta’s supreme leader, Snr-Gen Than Shwe. Although he has
kept everyone guessing about his exact strategy, it is widely assumed that
he will approach the election much as he did last year’s referendum on the
new Constitution: by rigging it to deliver an outcome favorable to the
military. At that time, opponents of the new charter were rounded up or
harassed, and votes in favor were cast en masse by regime proxies. The
result: a ludicrous approval rate of more than 92 percent for the
Constitution.

Of course, manipulating a multiparty election will not be as simple as
fixing a referendum. To make matters even more complicated, the regime
seems determined not only to vanquish its political nemesis, the National
League for Democracy (NLD), once and for all, but also to neutralize
ethnic cease-fire groups by incorporating them into the state security
apparatus as border guard forces.

To achieve these goals without incurring further international
condemnation or igniting a renewed civil war, Than Shwe will need to rely
on more than just bully tactics and electoral legerdemain. Indeed, unless
he can somehow bring his staunchest critics on board—namely, NLD leader
Aung San Suu Kyi and the US government—the election will go down in
history as yet another failed attempt to hoodwink the Burmese people and
the rest of the world.

More than 20 years have passed since the regime seized power in a bloody
coup, and so far nothing has succeeded in forcing the generals to weaken
their stranglehold on Burma. Sanctions have failed, as has “constructive
engagement.” Mass popular uprisings have been mercilessly crushed, and
armed resistance has become increasingly implausible, as the regime has
strengthened its own military might to unprecedented levels. The dream of
a US-led invasion, once seriously entertained by many Burmese, is now
acknowledged by most to be a complete fantasy.

This has left the regime’s opponents with no other option than to try to
engage with the generals, albeit on different terms than those of Burma’s
neighbors, who have generally been willing to deal with the junta in
exchange for access to the country’s natural assets.

Realizing this, the Obama administration announced in September that it
would break with past US policy to directly engage with the regime. Unlike
Burma’s other “dialogue partners,” however, Washington will expect a
different payoff for its outreach: political progress.

When Kurt Campbell, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia,
announced the new US policy of direct dialogue with the regime, he noted
that Burma’s generals also seemed eager to talk.

“For the first time in memory, the Burmese leadership has shown an
interest in engaging with the United States,” he said. As further evidence
of the junta’s readiness to get back on a friendlier footing with the US,
Campbell revealed in late October that a US delegation was planning to go
to Burma to start a new round of talks with the generals and the
democratic opposition.

This should come as no surprise. Although the sheer staying power of the
regime has amply demonstrated the ineffectiveness of sanctions, Burma’s
military rulers are nonetheless desperate to see them lifted. Speaking to
the UN General Assembly in New York in September, Burmese Prime Minister
Gen Thein Sein denounced the sanctions as “unjust” and insisted that “such
acts must be stopped.”

Meanwhile, Suu Kyi also realized that the moment was ripe for a change of
tack. Even before the US unveiled its new Burma policy, she sent a
personal letter to Than Shwe to request an opportunity to discuss the
issue of sanctions with the regime and foreign diplomats. He quickly
agreed, allowing her to meet twice with the junta’s liaison officer, Aung
Kyi, and then with top diplomats from the US, UK and Australia. This was
followed by a meeting between senior members of the NLD and 20 European
diplomats.

Than Shwe’s unusually swift responses to both the US and Suu Kyi
initiatives show that while the sanctions have not forced the regime to
change, they remain a powerful bargaining chip. Thus it would be imprudent
to make any move to lift them prematurely, before the junta has made any
meaningful concessions. They will, indeed, be the most crucial factor in
determining the success or failure of the engagement policy.

Now that we know what the generals want, we need to ask what they are
willing to give in return.

Unfortunately, it seems unlikely at this stage that they are ready to
accede to any of the oft-stated demands of the international community and
pro-democracy groups—namely, the release of all political prisoners,
including Suu Kyi; a review of the Constitution before the election; and
guarantees that the election will be open, free and fair.

If the US is to finally break the stalemate, it will need to use the
possibility of ending the sanctions as an incentive for the regime to
change its ways, while setting a clear timeframe for the changes it wants
to see implemented. It is also important to set clear priorities, since it
is highly unlikely that the junta will meet more than one demand at a
time.

Although the most frequently stated demands have been for the release of
political prisoners and a free and fair election, there is a strong
argument to be made for putting a constitutional review at the top of the
agenda. This is because prisoners, once released, can easily be
rearrested, and elections, even when they are free and fair, are in
themselves no guarantee of a sound democracy.

In his book, “The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and
Abroad,” Fareed Zakaria writes: “For people in the West, democracy means
‘liberal democracy’: a political system marked not only by free and fair
elections but also by the rule of law, a separation of powers, and the
protection of basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion, and property.
But this bundle of freedoms—what might be termed ‘constitutional
liberalism’—has nothing intrinsically to do with democracy and the two
have not always gone together, even in the West.”

Much has already been said about the provisions in the 2008 Constitution
that set aside 25 percent of all seats in parliament for the military, but
few people have commented on the absence of a US-style Bill of Rights that
would limit the powers of the state and the military vis-à-vis the
country’s citizens. There is nothing, for instance, comparable to the
Third Amendment of the US Constitution, which states: “No Soldier shall,
in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the
Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.”

This severe imbalance is the reason that opposition and ethnic parties led
by the NLD and the international community, including the UN, have called
on the junta to review the charter. Indeed, unless significant changes are
made to the Constitution before the election is held, it is no
exaggeration to say that Burma’s prospects for meaningful political reform
in the years ahead are dead.

However, this is the point on which Than Shwe seems most determined not to
yield.

“The new state Constitution has been approved by the great majority.
Elections will be systematically held in 2010 in accord with the
Constitution,” he said in an address to a war veterans’ organization in
Naypyidaw in October, just days after talks with the US began.

It will not be easy to get Than Shwe to change course at this stage, but
opposition groups, and especially Suu Kyi, can continue to play a role in
trying to move the junta in the right direction. Even if she is not freed
or allowed to participate in the upcoming election, Suu Kyi may be able to
influence the political process through her talks with the regime on
ending the sanctions.

The US and the rest of the international community should be prepared to
support her efforts by giving her the leverage she needs to get her
message through to Burma’s stubborn generals.

This article appears in November issue of The Irrawaddy Magazine.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

November 10, Arakan Rivers Network
India-Burma transport project to devastate local livelihoods and cultures

Local civilians in Western Burma (Myanmar) face severe negative
consequences from the planned construction of the Kaladan Multi-Modal
Transport Project; these include heavy damage to the environment and
therefore livelihoods, as well as widespread human rights abuses.  A
preliminary report from the Arakan Rivers Network (ARN) presents some of
these local voices and highlights their concerns; it provides a
comprehensive update on the status of the project and an expert analysis
of its expected impacts. The report will be released on November 10, 2009.

The Kaladan Project aims to connect the landlocked area of Northeast India
with the sea via the Kaladan River in Western Burma’s Arakan and Chin
states, opening up trade routes to Southeast Asia.  However, this
progressive leap for India’s “Look East Policy” will also have a broad
range of devastating effects on the people of Arakan and Chin States, most
of whom already live in extreme poverty and have not had any input in the
planning and construction of this project.  The communities inhabiting
areas that will be affected by the Kaladan Project will see no benefit to
their local economies or their level of development; in fact, the project
will make it harder for locals to pursue their livelihoods, secure their
basic necessities, and provide for their families.

ARN Director Aung Marm Oo, summarized the link between rivers and local
livelihoods in Arakan, and the consequences of the Kaladan Project: The
Kaladan is the most important of Arakan State’s four main rivers, with
more than one third of the state’s population residing close to its banks.
Over 90% of these people totally depend on the river for fishing, farming
and travel. If this project goes ahead under the rule of Burma’s
oppressive military regime, people from not only Arakan, but also Chin
State, will suffer enormously. At the same time, the regime will send in
more troops, confiscating hundreds of acres of farmland from local farmers
for military use. The military presence and the execution of the Kaladan
development will also lead to numerous human rights abuses, environmental
degradation and the decimation of ecosystems, biodiversity and the
migratory paths of important species.”

ARN has been following the developments of the Kaladan Project since the
first agreement on the project was signed in April 2008.  This report is
the first of its kind, and compiles information from a number of primary
and secondary sources. Enlisting the support of experts in many fields,
from river development to Burma’s foreign relations, this Preliminary
Report gives a comprehensive overview of the project’s local implications
and its wider significance amid the current Asian political climate.

The ARN aims to protect regional ecosystems from deterioration and prevent
the destruction of habitats that are home to endangered species. We
endeavour to bring an end to the persistent abuse inflicted on the people
of Arakan and Chin States as a result of development projects that favour
Burma’s oppressive military regime.

For further information please contact:
Aung Marm Oo, Director (ARN): + (0) 81- 6736326
JJ Kim, Volunteer: + (0) 85- 4784971

Download the preliminary report at
http://www.arakanrivers.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Preliminary-Report-of-Kaladan-Multi-Mulda-Transit-Transport-Project.pdf