BurmaNet News, November 18, 2009

[Editor]

November 18, 2009 Issue #3843


INSIDE BURMA
DVB: 50 percent rise in Burma forced labour
DVB: Newspaper typo leads to journalist arrest
The Independent (UK): Burmese cameramen jailed for defying regime
Irrawaddy: Junta confiscates land in Arakan State

ON THE BORDER
SHAN: Media network demands free and fair reporting on 2010 polls
DPA: Myanmar mulls railway link with China

BUSINESS / TRADE
Bermana (Malaysia): Vietnamese businessmen to invest in Myanmar's hotel
industry
The New Nation (Bangladesh): 'Gas pipeline to Myanmar likely to be revived’

OPINION / OTHER
Asia Sentinel: China's Burma oil bonanza – Nava Thakuria
Bangkok Post: Will the junta heed Obama? – Editorial




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 18, Democratic Voice of Burma
50 percent rise in Burma forced labour – Francis Wade

Complaints of forced labour in Burma have risen by nearly 50 percent in
the past five months, with more than half of these stemming from the
recruitment of youths into the army.

The statistics, published in a report by the International Labour
Organisation (ILO), show that mounting pressure on the Burmese government
to eliminate forced labour is yet to find its mark.

The ILO criticized in June a clause in the Burmese constitution, ratified
in 2008, that appeared to justify use of forced labour as a punishment for
crimes, or in “duties assigned by the Union in accord with the law in the
interest of the public”.

The total number of complaints received by the ILO as of 28 October stands
at 223, while the figure for May 2009 was 152. Since the first complaint
of under-age recruitment into the army was received in February 2007, the
number has risen to 102.

Following ILO intervention, “59 children have been discharged from the
military, 30 cases are still under Government investigation or are the
subject of ongoing communication, and nine await ILO initial assessment
prior to submission,” the report said.

Forced labour in Burma comes in varying forms, from hard labour used in
the renovation of roads and infrastructure to use of civilians as porters
or ‘minesweepers’ by the Burmese army.

The report however warns against the assumption that an increase
complaints automatically corresponds to wider use of forced labour in
Burma.

“[The increase] appears to result from heightened awareness generally of
citizens’ rights under the law, the maturing and expansion of the
facilitators’ network, and an increased readiness to present complaints,”
it said.

Despite the establishment of the Supplementary Understanding, an agreement
between the ILO and Burmese government that complainants will not be
harassed, the organisation has acknowledged that retaliation does take
place.

At least 11 “serious cases of apparent harassment and judicial
retaliation” against complainants and facilitators has taken place since
May, all which relate to complaints of forced labour by farmers in Burma’s
central Magwe divison. The harassment includes “lengthy and intense
interrogations and judicial action,” the report says.

“It would thus appear that there is a serious ‘disconnect’ between the
desire of the central government authorities to stop the use of forced
labour and the behaviour of the local [civilian and military] authorities.

The Burmese government has however permitted the ILO to carry out
awareness-raising activities that include both civil and military
authorities, while an interview with the ILO’s Burma liaison officer,
Steve Marshall, was published in a biweekly journal in Burma.

____________________________________

November 18, The Independent (UK)
Burmese cameramen jailed for defying regime – Peter Popham

If a shocking documentary about the fate of Burma's cyclone orphans wins a
prestigious video-journalism award in London tomorrow night, it will be
some time before one of the men who shot it gets a chance to celebrate.

Six months after shooting on the film was completed, the cameraman known
only as T was arrested coming out of an internet café in Rangoon and taken
to the city's Insein prison. Last week, after four months in jail, he was
told he would be charged with the new offence of filming without
government permission, which carries a minimum jail sentence of 10 years.

The Rory Peck awards are given annually to freelance video cameramen and
documentary makers who run the sort of risks which Peck, who was shot dead
while filming the siege of the Russian parliament in 1993, took every day.
In Burma the challenges are rather different. The risks of getting shot or
bombed while filming in the peaceable, agrarian Irrawaddy delta south of
Rangoon are low. But, in other respects, this must be one of the most
dangerous assignments in the world.

The film follows a number of children orphaned by Cyclone Nargis, which
struck southern Burma in May 2008, killing 140,000 people in the delta and
making 2.4 million homeless, as they struggle to survive in the absence of
their parents, and with negligible assistance from the state. T and his
colleague, another Burmese identified as Z who is currently hiding out in
Thailand, even filmed an appearance by General Thein Sein, the junta's
Prime Minister, before a group of desperate villagers telling them to get
back to work and to expect nothing from the state for some time.

T joins 13 other cameramen working for the Oslo-based Democratic Voice of
Burma (DVB) who have been jailed by the Burmese authorities since the
Saffron Revolution in 2007, the mass uprising led by monks which shook
Asia's most repressive regime to the core. Ever since the coup d'état of
1962 which brought General Ne Win to power, Burma's ruling generals have
done everything in their power to control the images of the country which
reach the outside world. Foreign journalists are almost never let in, and
those who enter as tourists are frequently deported. Ubiquitous spies make
it immensely risky for Burmese to blow the whistle on the regime.

But the internet and the shrinking size of video cameras have given
dissidents new ways of getting their words and pictures out – as the junta
discovered in September 2007, when freelance video cameramen working for
DVB shot the swelling protest marches of the monks and sent them abroad.
The pictures were picked up by news networks around the world, giving the
regime its worst publicity for decades.

To prevent the same thing happening again, the authorities passed a new
law banning filming without government permission, and began locking up
for long terms those who defied it. Three of those who filmed the monks'
protests are serving long sentences, but the law has done nothing to deter
their colleagues.

Khin Maung Win, deputy head of DVB, said, "We had 30 journalists active
during the Saffron Revolution, half of whom are now inactive – either in
jail, in hiding or in Thailand. But now we have about 100 more, spread all
over the country, even in Burma's new capital, Naypyidaw."

He went on, "We don't normally publicise the arrest of our cameramen, but
we decided to do so this time because of the awards. This award is very
important for us – if we win it will be the first success by Burmese
journalists. The Rory Peck award is all about taking risks, which
certainly applies to us. And we are proud that we can do something to
inform the international audience." DVB's main activity is beaming a
two-hour package of news and current affairs to Burma every day by
satellite which the regime has found it impossible to block.

With more and more of its workers incarcerated, DVB now faces the growing
challenge of supporting them and their families through their long ordeal.
Whether or not "Orphans of Burma's Cyclone", a Quicksilver Media
production for Channel 4's Dispatches, wins tomorrow, the Rory Peck Trust
has promised to contribute to the effort of keeping them alive and sane.

____________________________________

November 18, Democratic Voice of Burma
Newspaper typo leads to journalist arrest

A glaring typo in one of Burma’s leading newspapers has landed a
journalist in detention and temporarily delayed the printing run of the
publication.

The Mandalay-based Yadanabon, one of only four newspapers in
military-ruled Burma, appeared on Saturday to promote the notion that
anti-government violence can spur change in the country.

The literal translation of a government mantra that regularly appears in
state-run media in Burma proffers that “Democracy cannot be achieved from
riots”. In the 13 November issue of the Yadanabon, however, “cannot” is
exchanged for “can”.

According to a Mandalay-based journalist, a staff worker at the newspaper
was detained and questioned by police the following day, causing
publication of the newspaper to temporarily stop.

Locals in Mandalay say the Yadanabon, which shares a name with Burma’s
first ever newspaper, published in the 19th century, is owned by a
military official.

Burmese newspapers, such as the English-language New Light of Myanmar, are
littered with Orwellian mantras that instruct citizens to “oppose foreign
nations interfering in internal affairs of the State” or “Crush all
internal and external destructive elements as the common enemy”.

Apart from a handful of privately-owned magazines that nonetheless come
under strict censorship by the ruling junta, all newspapers are state
owned and often act as the government mouthpiece.

Front-page articles seldom deviate away from coverage of ribbon-cutting
ceremonies or diplomatic visits to the handful of countries still allied
with Burma, while any material or opinion critical of the government is
strictly prohibited.

Furthermore, all published material in Burma must first be approved by the
Press Registration and Scrutiny Division (PRSD), which often takes days to
pass material through the censor board.

Last month the Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Sans Frontieres (RSF)
ranked Burma 171 out of 175 countries in its annual Press Freedom Index,
with only Iran buffering it from the ‘infernal trio’ of Turkmenistan,
North Korea and Eritrea.

Reporting by DVB

____________________________________

November 18, Irrawaddy
Junta confiscates land in Arakan State – Ba Saw Tin

About 50 traditional hand-dug oil wells and 10 acres of land were
confiscated on Nov. 14 by the Burmese authorities in Kyuakphyu Township in
Arakan State in western Burma, according to local sources.

The sources told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that the landowners are afraid
they will not receive any compensation from the Burmese authorities.
Police in Kyuakphyu Township told them that the order to confiscate
property came from Naypyidaw.

Maung Phyu, one of the landowners, said: “They came with guns to
confiscate our property. We couldn’t say anything to them. This property
is our legacy. We rely on it. We’ve lost it now, and we have no jobs.”

Land confiscation by the government is a common practice in Arakan State,
according to the Arakan Rivers Network (ARN) based in Thailand.

An ARN report, “Holding Our Land,” published in February, said that 53,000
acres of land in Arakan State have been confiscated. Most of the property
involved oil wells.

One Korean and two Chinese oil companies operate in Arakan State: China
National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC), the China National Petroleum
Corporation (CNPC) and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS).

Local sources said they believed the confiscated land will be given to
CNOOC to explore for oil on the site.

The oil companies and local landowners are often in business conflicts
because oil companies promise to pay compensation after they take over
land, but they don’t pay fair prices, according to the Arakan Oil Watch
(AOW)  based in Thailand.

Tun Thar Aung, a Burmese migrant in Mae Sot, told The Irrawaddy his land
was confiscated by CNOOC. The company told him to sign a contract and it
promised to pay compensation, he said, but no payment was ever made.

Land confiscation has increased in Arakan State since 2007 when
authorities evicted many landowners in Kyuakphyu Township, according to
AOW.  About 70 villagers fled to Thailand and Malaysia after protests were
made against CNOOC.

Arakan rights activists said the oil and gas projects in Arakan State have
not benefited landowners or villagers, and the companies violate human
rights and cause environment damage.

Meanwhile, CNPC announced on Nov. 3 that it had begun construction on the
gas pipeline which will run through Burma into Yunnan Province in China.
The Burmese government has agreed to sell gas to China in a contract that
will provide up to US $30 billion to the Burmese government.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 18, Shan Herald Agency for News
Media network demands free and fair reporting on 2010 polls

Burma News International (BNI), a network of 11 independent news
organizations in exile, yesterday urged the country’s ruling military
junta to ensure freedom of information gathering and reporting in the
general elections slated for next year.

“Otherwise, it will not be considered free and fair and, as a result,
rejected by the international community,” it warned.

The BNI, which held its three-day 14th bi-annual meeting, from November 15
to 17, also demanded the “unconditional and prompt release” of all
journalists under detention and a suspension of news censorship.

Burma is infamous as one of the most inhospitable countries for
journalists. Kenji Nagai, a Japanese photographer, was shot dead by
junta’s soldiers during the 2007 Saffron Revolution.

The exact number of journalists detained by the regime has not been
disclosed. Son Moe Way, a coordinator for the Burma Journalists Protection
Committee (BJPC), said some of those detained by the military authorities
on charges of activism are journalists.

“Revelation of their true identities will only lead to harsher punishments
for them,” he told the meeting yesterday.

The BNI was formed in 2003 with the aim of “becoming a leading multimedia
enterprise that presents a comprehensive picture of Burma and plays a role
in promoting an understanding of the country.” Supporters of the network
have pointed out its policy of inclusiveness and decentralization as its
main strength.

____________________________________

November 18, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Myanmar mulls railway link with China

Yangon – Myanmar has opened discussions on building a railway link between
its north-eastern Shan State and China's Yunnan province, media reports
said Wednesday.

"The Myanmar-China railway link will connect Lashio, capital of Shan state
in the north, and Jiegao town of Yunnan province, China," The Yangon Times
weekly reported.

Officials from China's Railways Ministry recently visited Myanmar to
discuss the proposed link, the Burmese-language weekly said.

"Three possible routes for the railway link have already been chosen," the
newspaper said. Construction costs for the new railway link were estimated
at 500 million dollars.

Myanmar currently has a rail track between Yangon, Myanmar's former
capital, and Lashio.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 18, Bermana (Malaysia)
Vietnamese businessmen to invest in Myanmar's hotel industry

Yangon -- Vietnamese businessmen will invest in Myanmar's hotel industry
for the first time, as part of its engagement in the country, sources with
the Myanmar Hoteliers Association said on Wednesday.

The planned hotel is to be built near Myanmar's current top-level one, the
Sedona, located on the Kaba Aye Pagoda Road in the biggest city of Yangon,
the sources said without disclosing further information, China's Xinhua
news agency said.

There are some other foreign-invested hotels operating in the city, which
are three from Thailand, one from Singapore and the other from China, it
said.

Meanwhile, a Vietnamese airline is also planning to fly Myanmar as a new
destination, it added.

According to official statistics, Vietnam's investment in Myanmar hit some
US$23.4 million in nearly 21 years up to the end of May this year since
the country opened to such investment in late 1988.

Vietnam stands the 16th among Myanmar's exporting countries and 11th among
importing ones.

Myanmar mainly exported its forestry products to Vietnam, followed by
agricultural produces, seafood and electrical spare parts, while it
imported from Vietnam steel, electronic goods, pharmaceuticals, medicines,
industrial products, chemical products, computer and accessories, plastic,
cosmetics and engine oil.

Official statistics show that Myanmar-Vietnam bilateral trade in the first
nine months of 2009 hit some US$60 million.

Of the total, Myanmar's export to Vietnam took some US$42 million, while
its import from Vietnam stood at US$18 million, enjoying a trade surplus
of US$24 million.

____________________________________

November 18, The New Nation (Bangladesh)
'Gas pipeline to Myanmar likely to be revived’

New Delhi – Talks for a gas pipeline from Bengal to Myanmar via Bangladesh
are likely to be revived as Dhaka has renewed its interest.

However, the pipeline is unlikely to figure in the agenda of Bangladesh
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during her first visit to India next month
after being elected with an overwhelming mandate in December 2008, a
leading English daily "The Telegraph" said in a recent report.

Telegraph said, during her visit, Hasina is expected to wrest some trade
concessions as well as ink a transit deal that will give Bangladesh access
to Nepal and Bhutan by road and rail, while opening up the port of
Ashuganj for Indian goods meant for the Northeast.

In the project, gas produced by Indian Public Sector Units in Myanmar will
be transported to India, and the negotiations will be tri- partite.

After years of stalling on negotiations, the Bangladesh government, which
does not enjoy the best of relations with Myanmar, has sent signals of its
willingness to talk business - it will allow the pipeline in return for a
royalty in hard currency for giving passage, the report further said.

The pipeline could cost India about $600 million, of which 60 per cent
would be invested in Bangladesh. The South Asian nation would also earn
nearly $100 million as carrier fee every year.

Officials said, the talks, which are still to take off, did not envisage
the evacuation of Bangladesh's gas to India.

"We are very clear that India only wants to evacuate gas from the gas
fields in Myanmar through Arakan, Bangladesh and into Bengal to feed
industry in eastern and northern India. We have no plans to seek gas from
Bangladesh. Rather, Bangladesh could, if it so desires, buy excess gas
from our fields."

Opposition legislators of Bangladesh are against sales to India. In
January 2005, energy ministers of the three countries had met in Yangon to
discuss the construction of the pipeline, with a total length of 950km,
and signed a draft memorandum of understanding.

The pipeline was expected to enter Bangladesh at the Brahmanbaria border
and Bengal from Rajshahi.

Officials said, the pipeline could help evacuate gas from the Shwe
gasfields as well as from new finds, in which Indian firms participate.

In June, ONGC Videsh Ltd, GAIL (India) Limited and South Korea's Daewoo
had announced the discovery of a huge field in Block A-3, offshore
Myanmar.

The field is located adjacent to Block A-1, where an estimated 113-170bn
cubic metres of reserves had been found, the Telegraph report said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 18, Asia Sentinel
China's Burma oil bonanza – Nava Thakuria

Ignoring protests, Beijing seeks energy from a pariah state. What will
Obama do?

As expected, China has utterly ignored protests from Burmese protest
groups to begin construction of a 980-km dual oil and gas pipeline that
will cross the entire Burmese countryside from the offshore Shwe gas
fields of Arakan state to China's southern Yunnan Province.

A protest group, Arakan Youth, has protested that as long ago as 2006, 500
people from villages on the India-Burma border had already been relocated
and forced into uncompensated labor to clear the way for the US$2.5
billion pipeline, which is expected to go online in three years.

That constitutes a dilemma for US President Barack Obama as he seeks to
engage with the long-isolated country, one of the world's poorest and most
brutal. It remains a question whether the United States, having applied
the stick to Burma for more than two decades, will now get anything out of
applying the carrot, as he famously attempted to do at meetings of the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Singapore last week.

The countries contiguous to Burma appear nearly oblivious. In a lesson to
Obama of just how little effect the sanctions have had on Burma, the Shwe
field itself is being developed by companies from some of America's
staunchest allies including South Korea's Daewoo International, Korea Gas
and India's state-owned enterprises ONGC Videsh and GAIL. Daewoo is
expected to take up a 25 percent stake in the pipeline, which will
transport crude from tankers calling from Africa and the Middle East
rather than making the time-consuming trip down through the
pirate-invested Strait of Malacca and back up to China.

Nor are India and South Korea alone. According to a brochure put out by
Total, the French energy company which is part of a consortium whose other
partners are Unocal, a unit of the US-based Chevron, Thailand's PTTEP and
Burma's own Myanmar Oil & Gas Enterprise are producing gas from the rich
offshore Yadana field and exporting 85 percent of the gas to Thailand,
where it supplies 20 percent of that country's power generation
facilities, with output averaging 20 million cubic meters of gas per day
in 2008.

The remaining 15 percent is sold locally. But even though most of the
cities in Burma are dependent on private generators for electricity,
instead of using the natural gas for Burmese citizens, the military junta
is selling the gas to its neighboring developing countries in exchange for
foreign currency.

China in particular has steadily increased its trade ties with Burma, one
of the world's most reviled countries because of its human rights
policies, and recently signed an agreement to become sole buying authority
of the Shwe gas reserve. Under this agreement, Beijing took the
responsibility to construct the US$2.5 billion trans-Burma (oil and gas)
corridor to feed its voracious need for energy. The State-owned China
National Petroleum Corporation holds 50.9 percent of the pipeline, with
the capacity to pump nearly 12 million tons of oil and 12 billion cubic
meters of gas annually, in partnership with the Myanmar Oil and Gas
Enterprise. The Burmese government expects to receive $29 billion over 30
years from the deal.

"The military rulers of Burma, which is otherwise facing heavy economic
sanctions by the United States and many European countries, keep
themselves alive with royalties earned from selling the natural resources
to other countries. But all this money is hardly used for any public
welfare activities," said M. Kim, an exile Burmese living in India.

Speaking to Asia Sentinel from New Delhi, Kim, who is associated with the
Burma Centre Delhi, pointed out that the State Peace and Development
Council, the junta that runs the country, has mastered the art of ignoring
the concerns of the international community for its rights record. Once
the rice bowl of Asia, Burma is today one of the poorest countries on the
globe, but the military junta of Naypyidaw spends more than 40 percent of
its national budget on defense. Only 2 percent goes to health and
education of the 50 million Burmese.

Beijing has brushed aside demands by more than 120 organizations based in
20 countries to halt the construction of the pipeline project. Led by the
Shwe Gas Movement, a Thailand based oil-gas watchdog and rights group, the
movement endorsed a memorandum to the Chinese government on the Global Day
of Action on October 28.

In the letter, addressed to the President of the People's Republic of
China and sent through the Chinese embassies in various countries
including, among others, Burma's Association of Southeast Asian Nations
partners, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Sweden and others, expressing
serious concern at the probable threats to the environment and the Burmese
because of the project. The letter also asked President Hu Jintao to
immediately stop construction, which is all but inconceivable. EarthRights
International, in a recent survey, identified 69 Chinese companies engaged
in extracting natural resources including oil, gas, hydropower development
and mining from Burmese sites.

Nor did Burma's Asean partners appear to be concerned. The 10-member body
refused to go along with a request by Obama for a joint communiqué asking
that democracy leader Aung San Suu Ky, who has spent 14 of the last 20
years under house arrest, to be freed. Obama was forced release his own
statement asking for Suu Ky's freedom, although the group did to release a
joint statement with the US, calling for free elections next year -- which
the opposition has already condemned as a sham aimed at providing a thin
veneer of democracy for the junta.

"We are gravely concerned for the thousands communities living along the
planned 980 km pipeline corridor. Based on experiences in Burma,
partnerships with the MOGE on infra-structure development projects
invariably lead to forced displacement, forced labor and loss of
livelihoods," the letter from the 120 organizations said. "The escalation
of abuses around a project when Burma army soldiers provide security is
well documented by UN agencies and NGOs."

"What is more awful that the local communities, who will be affected by
the project, are still unaware of it and they are not being consulted. At
the same time, neither the military authority nor the CNPC had gone for
any environmental and social impact assessments before launching the
pipeline project," said Wong Aung, the coordinator of the Shwe Gas
Movement.

Speaking to Asia Sentinel from Chiang Mai, Thailand, the young activist
also revealed that over 10, 000 Burmese soldiers had already been deployed
along the pipeline route, a number that is likely to be increased in the
days to come and one that is likely to add to the number of incidents of
human rights abuses along the pipeline route.

"Past experiences have shown that the pipeline construction and
maintenance in the country always involve forced labor, forced relocation,
land confiscation, and other kinds of abuses by the soldiers engaged in
the project area," Wong Aung added.

In a recently launched book titled ‘Corridor of Power: China's Trans-Burma
Oil and Gas Pipelines', the Shwe Gas Movement strongly requested that the
extraction of the Shwe natural gas deposits be postponed until local
people in western Burma could participate in the decision-making process
about the use of the resources. It added that the concerned neighboring
countries and the oil companies must stop trade with the military junta
and refrain from further investment until there is a democratically
elected government in the country.

Burma's western coast, which is rich in oil and gas reserves, has become
the battleground for Beijing and New Delhi in recent years," said an
editorial in the Shwe Gas Bulletin. "The western companies showed
reluctance in investing in Burma, but both China and India continued their
mission and battle over the Burmese oil and gas. The editorial added that
at a time when China and India were exploiting the resources of Arakan to
enhance their energy and economic security, over four million people
living in the State were only facing human rights abuses and economic
hardship.

Debbie Stothard, coordinator to Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, said
in an interview projects in Burma have displaced thousands of poor Burmese
and exposed to them to abuse by the military. Speaking to Asia Sentinel
from Bangkok, Stothard added that the Shwe pipeline project would have a
heavy impact on the people along the route and would end up adversely
affecting the entire region.

None of that appears to matter to the Chinese, the governments surrounding
Burma, or any countries wishing to buy Burma's rich natural resources.

____________________________________

November 18, Bangkok Post
Will the junta heed Obama? – Editorial

If the government of Burma is truly serious about staging an election next
year, it must seriously consider the words and actions of US President
Barack Obama.

In the first confrontation by a US leader with Burmese dictators in 43
years, Mr Obama sent two messages at once. He said the generals must free
their political prisoners, first and foremost Aung San Suu Kyi. He then
made it clear that the new US approach to Burma has clear limits; the
sanctions on the military regime will stay in place.

The meeting between Mr Obama and Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein was not
particularly dramatic. For one thing, it took place behind closed doors,
during the annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum
last weekend in Singapore. For another, it was not a face-to-face meeting.
The reference to Burma by Mr Obama was part of a general presentation, to
which all the Asean heads of government were present. His references to
Burma, however, were the most important part of his remarks - for Burma,
for Asean and for outsiders.

After its meeting with the president, Asean showed its usual restraint.
The US-Asean statement made no mention of political prisoners. With
predictable faint-heartedness, the statement called on Burma to hold a
free election. This is simply dodging the issue.

There are clear steps that Burma must take if it wants anyone to believe
its election is free. Mr Obama stated the first one: release of all
political prisoners. Mrs Suu Kyi has become the symbol of the suffering
and brutality caused by the military dictators since 1962. But thousands
of Burmese are imprisoned today for nothing more dangerous than peaceful
opposition to the army junta and its government. So long as one of them
remains locked up, the planned election cannot be free.

Mrs Suu Kyi has spent most of her life locked up since she had the
audacity to win the only free election in recent Burmese history, in 1990.
She is the clear leader of the loyal opposition in Burma. This is because
of her own bravery. But the generals also have tortured, jailed,
intimidated, exiled (or worse) almost all members of the peaceful
opposition who dared to speak out against the military regime.

It will be a major step if all the political prisoners are freed, and if
Mrs Suu Kyi is allowed to speak openly to voters prior to the planned 2010
elections. It will not, however, be any guarantee of what Asean refers to
vaguely as a "free election". The generals will also have to allow foreign
observers if they wish the world to take their election seriously - the
foreign media and non-governmental groups, if not a formal poll watch by,
say, the United Nations. The voting will have to be free of intimidation.

Equally importantly, the entrenched and comfortable military junta must
abide explicitly by the will of the voters. In 1990, the regime simply
ignored the poll victory by Mrs Suu Kyi's party. That kept the army in
power. It also more deeply convinced the domestic opposition and foreign
friends of Burma that the country was so firmly under the control of
despots that it had to be cut off from normal trade and diplomacy with the
rest of the world.

The US president has made it clear to Mr Thein Sein and to all other Asean
leaders that the United States is open to a change in attitude from the
military leaders.

Next year's election is Burma's chance to regain the respect of the world.
It is up to the generals to seize the opportunity.