BurmaNet News, November 20, 2009

[Editor]

November 20, 2009 Issue #3845


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Myint Swe: The Tatmadaw’s next top dog?
Xinhua: Myanmar, Laos sign two MoUs on visa exemption, double taxation
avoidance

ON THE BORDER
DVB: Burmese migrants to remit half of salaries

HEALTH
DVB: Burma to open private schools and hospitals

REGIONAL
United News of India: Zhimomi suggests 'Naga State' in Myanmar

INTERNATIONAL
Reuters: UN committee condemns N.Korea, Myanmar over rights
Journalism.co.uk: Burmese secret cameramen 'Z' and 'T' among Rory Peck
Awards winners

OPINION / OTHER
The Nation (Thailand): Illegal Burmese migrants: caught between hiding or
becoming legal – Jackie Pollock
VOA: Obama presses Burma for reforms – Editorial
Sydney Morning Herald: Burma engagement offers false hope – Graham Reilly
Kantarawaddy Times: Burma's election: Road map to more military rule



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA.

November 20, Irrawaddy
Myint Swe: The Tatmadaw’s next top dog? – Min Lwin

Lt-Gen Myint Swe is being widely tipped to succeed Snr-Gen Than Shwe as
the Burmese army's next commander in chief, according to several
dissidents in exile and Burma observers.

Rumors have circulated that Myint Swe is junta strongman Than Shwe’s
favored choice to take over from him. Myint Swe was recently promoted to
quartermaster general of the Tatmadaw,

According to analysts, Myint Swe’s appointment indicates that the junta
chief intends to pave the way for him to assume a top-ranking position in
the military's hierarchy. Traditionally, a quartermaster in the Tatmadaw
is among the names in the hat who could feasibly be promoted to commander
in chief of Burma’s armed forces.

Myint Swe reportedly caught Than Shwe’s eye in 2002 when he was involved
in the arrests of late dictator Gen Ne Win’s family after an alleged coup
conspiracy was uncovered. Then, in October 2004, Myint Swe proved his
loyalty to Than Shwe by heading the purge against former military
intelligence chief Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt.

Myint Swe became a second lieutenant officer after he graduated from the
15th intake of the Defence Services Academy in 1971. He was promoted to
commanding officer of Infantry Battalion 404 and quickly rose through the
ranks, becoming commanding officer of Light Infantry Division 11
overseeing security in Rangoon. He then served as commander of Southwest
Military Region in Bassein, Irrawaddy Division, before moving to the War
Office in the late 1990s where he worked directly under Than Shwe and Vice
Snr-Gen Maung Aye, reputedly becoming their close confidante.

In 2001, Myint Swe made brigadier-general as the commander of the
Southeast Region when he succeeded Maj-Gen Thiha Thura Sit Maung who had
died in a helicopter crash. As a divisional commander and a favorite of
Burma’s “first lady,” Than Shwe’s wife Kyaing Kyaing, Myint Swe took over
Rangoon Command and was promoted to major-general.

As a commander in Rangoon and chief of Military Affairs Security, he
failed to catch the culprits when the former capital was rocked by a
series of bomb blasts in 2005, which killed 21 people and injured dozens
more. Nonetheless, his reputation and loyalty within the military elite
went unquestioned.

As chief of both the Bureau of Special Operations 5 and Military Affairs
Security, Myint Swe undoubtedly played a ruthless role in the crackdown
and handling of monk-led demonstrations in September 2007.

____________________________________

November 20, Xinhua
Myanmar, Laos sign two MoUs on visa exemption, double taxation avoidance

Yangon – Myanmar and Laos Friday signed two memorandums of understanding
in Nay Pyi Taw respectively on mutual visa exemption for holders of
diplomatic passport and avoidance of double taxation, the state-run
Myanmar Radio and Television (MRTV) reported in a night broadcast.

The signing came shortly after Lao Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign
Minister Thongloun Sisoulith met with Myanmar Prime Minister General Thein
Sein.

On the same day, Vice-Chairman of the Myanmar State Peace and Development
Council Vice Senior-General Maung Aye also met with Sisoulith.

The Lao deputy prime minister and foreign minister began his formal
official goodwill visit to the new capital of Myanmar Thursday after he
attended the 9th meeting of Myanmar-Lao Joint Commission for Bilateral
Cooperation in Taunggyi, the capital of Myanmar's Shan state, on
Wednesday.

That meeting was represented by Sisoulith from the Lao side, while Foreign
Minister U Nyan Win from the Myanmar side.

The two sides discussed matters relating to further strengthening and
cooperation between the two countries as well as enhancing in mutual
cooperation in regional and international forums.

Sisoulith arrived Yangon on Tuesday for the meeting and then the visit to
Nay Pyi Taw.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 20, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burmese migrants to remit half of salaries – Aye Nai

Burmese nationals working abroad have been instructed by the ruling junta
to send up to 50 percent of their salary home in remittances, via a
state-owned bank.

According to the new regulation, enforced by Burma’s labour ministry,
those who earn less than $US200 per month working abroad are to send 30
percent of their salary back to Burma, while those earning above $US400
are to send 50 percent back.

The latest data available from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows
that remittances to Burma in 2004 totaled $US81.3 million.

The announcement, made last week in several Burmese journals, said that
the regulation will be enforced by government employees working abroad
under departments such as the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of
Commerce and Myanmar Women’s Affairs Federation.

On top of this, all Burmese nationals working overseas are to pay 10
percent of their salary as tax to the Burmese embassy in their respective
countries of employment.

The announcement follows the recent granting of temporary passports to
Burmese working in Thailand, although it is not clear whether these will
also be scrutinised under the new regulation.

A Burmese national working in Singapore said however that it would be
impossible for migrant workers to follow the rule.

“Some people have their whole family here; they have kids to send to
school here and families to look after. How would they be able to pay half
of their salary?”

Another Singapore-based Burmese national said that the regulation could
force people into adopting a new citizenship to avoid paying the fee,
which “could lead educated citizens of Burma to become citizens of other
countries”.

Critics of the idea claim that the regulation will bring more stable
foreign currency to the state-owned bank, while those who receive the
remittance will be given the unstable Burmese currency, which has recently
appreciated.

Although the government puts the official exchange rate at six kyat to the
United States’ dollar, the unofficial blackmarket rate is closer to 1000
kyat per US dollar.

The government has been accused in the past of using the irregularity
between the official and unofficial exchange rate to hide income,
particularly from sales of oil and gas.

Outrage at the apparent siphoning off by the government of aid funding to
Burma following cyclone Nargis last year exposed levels of state
corruption in the country, which were reinforced earlier this week by a
Transparency International report which ranked Burma as the third most
corrupt country in the world.

____________________________________
HEALTH

November 20, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma to open private schools and hospitals – Ahunt Phone Myat

Private schools and hospitals abolished under the former Ne Win regime in
Burma are to reopen in an attempt to generate more revenue in the country
and improve the struggling sectors.

The government’s health ministry announced a 21-point criteria list for
the opening of private hospitals starting from early next year. Dr Kyee
Myint, deputy director of the ministry’s health department, said that
candidate health centers who meet the 21 conditions will be granted
permission to run as hospitals.

“We have already announced this in the news,” he said. “This is a
programme intended to bring profit to the nation by assisting in the
development of private businesses.”

Private schools will be allowed to open at the start of the 2010 academic
year, the education ministry has announced. Guidance was recently given to
private boarding tuition centres to prepare for the transition, with
statistics delivered on school size, location, number of buildings and
teachers, planned budget and school administration structures.

“This is only to test the capability of the candidates,” said Major Maung
Latt, owner of Soe San boarding tuition in the capital, Naypyidaw, which
has been flagged for consideration. “Maybe in about one year, some
government schools will be opened for auction [to replace with private
schools]. Nothing is definite at the moment.

“It would be better for the education,” he added. “Why should the private
boarding tuition centers be in existence now if the government schools
were good enough?” Well-known private tuition centres in Burma charge
between 1.5 million and two million kyat ($US1,500 to $US2,000) per
student each year.

People working in the education sector in Burma have said the move could
lead to the development of more education-based businesses in the country.
Private schools once existed in Burma, but were abolished by former
military leader Ne Win’s Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) government
when it came to power in 1964.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 20, United News of India
Zhimomi suggests 'Naga State' in Myanmar

Kohima -- Lone Rajya Sabha member from Nagaland Khekiho Zhimomi has
suggested the Myanmar Government for an administrative state for the Nagas
within Myanmar.

Mr Zhimomi interacted with the Myanmar Government over the aspect of Nagas
in that country and the suggestion was same as that of Nagaland Chief
Minister Neiphiu Rio.

The chief minister and his ministerial delegation in May this year had
suggested Ambassador of Myanmar to India U-Kyi Thein in New Delhi seeking
an exclusive administrative status for the Myanmar Nagas.

On that request, Mr Thein had assured that the matter would be taken up
with Junta leaders about recognising Myanmar Nagas with an administrative
or political status as a unique group within the greater Burmese stratum.

Mr Zhimomi informed that he is in touch with Myanmar leaders on regular
basis through various forum and platform and suggesting them about the
possibility of such state for the Burmese Nagas. Lone Rajya Sabha member
from Nagaland Khekiho Zhimomi has suggested the Myanmar Government for an
administrative state for the Nagas within Myanmar.

Mr Zhimomi interacted with the Myanmar Government over the aspect of Nagas
in that country and the suggestion was same as that of Nagaland Chief
Minister Neiphiu Rio.

The chief minister and his ministerial delegation in May this year had
suggested Ambassador of Myanmar to India U-Kyi Thein in New Delhi seeking
an exclusive administrative status for the Myanmar Nagas.

On that request, Mr Thein had assured that the matter would be taken up
with Junta leaders about recognising Myanmar Nagas with an administrative
or political status as a unique group within the greater Burmese stratum.

Mr Zhimomi informed that he is in touch with Myanmar leaders on regular
basis through various forum and platform and suggesting them about the
possibility of such state for the Burmese Nagas. Published by HT
Syndication with permission from United News of India.

For more information on news feed please contact Sarabjit Jagirdar at
htsyndication at hindustantimes.com

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 20, Reuters
UN committee condemns N.Korea, Myanmar over rights – Louis Charbonneau

United Nations – A special committee of the U.N. General Assembly
condemned North Korea and Myanmar on Thursday for what it said were
widespread human rights violations in the two Asian countries.

The 192-nation General Assembly's Third Committee, which focuses on human
rights issues, approved a non-binding resolution on North Korea 97-19 with
65 abstentions.

A similar resolution on Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, passed 92-26
with 65 abstentions.

The North Korea resolution voiced "very serious concern" at what it said
were persistent reports of "systematic, widespread and grave violations of
civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights."

Among Pyongyang's violations, the resolution said, are torture, inhuman
conditions of detention, public executions, collective punishment and "the
existence of a large number of prison camps and the extensive use of
forced labor."

North Korea's deputy U.N. ambassador, Pak Tok Hun, dismissed the
resolution as a political attack by its enemies.

"The draft resolution is nothing more than a document of political
conspiracy of the hostile forces to ... deny and obliterate the state and
social system of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea," he told the
committee.

Among the sponsors of the North Korea resolution were the European Union,
the United States, Japan and South Korea.

Envoys from developing nations that rights groups have also accused of
having poor human rights records -- including China, Russia, Libya, Sudan,
Syria, Egypt and Zimbabwe -- told the committee that they generally reject
such resolutions because they oppose singling out specific countries.

Assembly condemnations of the human rights situation in North Korea,
Myanmar and Iran have become an annual ritual in recent years.

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS

Myanmar's U.N. envoy Than Swe rejected the resolution on his country,
which said the assembly "strongly condemns the ongoing systematic
violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms of the people of
Myanmar."

It also voiced "grave concern" at the recent trial and sentencing to
further house arrest of Myanmar's opposition leader, Nobel Peace Prize
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, and urged the military junta to release her and
all other political prisoners.

The resolution also called on Myanmar's military rulers to pass the
necessary electoral legislation and take further steps to ensure that next
year's general election is not rigged but "free, fair, transparent and
inclusive."

Than Swe said the resolution is "glaringly deficient" and little more than
"another means to maintain pressure on Myanmar in tandem with sanctions."

British Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said the resolution "sets out the
action Burma's military rulers must take if planned elections are to have
any international credibility."

The Third Committee, which includes all members of the General Assembly,
is scheduled to debate a resolution condemning Iran on Friday. A special
General Assembly session next month is expected to formally adopt all
recently approved committee resolutions. (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

____________________________________

November 20, Journalism.co.uk
Burmese secret cameramen 'Z' and 'T' among Rory Peck Awards winners –
Laura Oliver

Freelance cameramen and camerawomen working in news and current affairs
for Channel 4, CNN and Reuters were named winners at the Rory Peck Awards
last night.

Kasbek Basayev won the news prize for his coverage of the South Ossetian
war in August 2008, commissioned and broadcast by Reuters.

The winners of the features category were two anonymous Burmese cameramen,
'Z' and 'T' who risked imprisonment for their work if caught by
authorities. The pair's prize-winning work focused on the orphans of
Burma's cyclone and was shot for the Channel 4 Dispatches programme.

The Martin Adler prize, set up in honour of murdered freelance
photographer, journalist and filmmaker Martin Adler, was awarded jointly
to three Gaza freelancers: Talal Abu Rahma, who works regularly for CNN
and France 2; Raed Athemneh and Ashraf Mashharawi.

The Sony Impact award, which focuses on freelance news footage that raises
humanitarian issues, went to Joost Van Der Walk for his work on 'Saving
Africa's Witch Children' for Channel 4's Dispatches.

Clips from the finalists can be watched on the Rory Peck website.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 20, The Nation (Thailand)
Illegal Burmese migrants: caught between hiding or becoming legal – Jackie
Pollock

MANY OF the estimated 2 million Burmese migrants currently living in
Thailand can remember the mass deportation a decade ago. With the threat
of another mass expulsion looming, migrant workers are exploring their
options and hoping to avoid the panic, the desperation and the dangers of
November 1999.

This collective memory is in itself an acknowledgement of the number of
years that migrants have given to Thailand, but despite this, they still
have limited options to secure their livelihood, safety and all options
that render them temporary commodities.

Newly arrived migrants from Burma only have one option and that is to live
and work illegally in Thailand. Migrants who have missed all of the
registrations offered by Thailand must also live a clandestine life.
Migrants who have registered and re-registered since 2004 have the option
of re-registering but this time with the proviso that their details will
be sent to Burmese authorities to have their nationality verified. Those
who pass this scrutiny will then be issued a temporary passport to allow
them to enter Thailand legally for work. Ironically, the illegal workers
may be the most permanent of all the workers. They certainly are the
largest in number, currently estimated at around 1.5 million.

The 600,000 registered migrants have permission to stay year by year, with
a threat of deportation at the end of each 12-month cycle. Next year, all
the various registration processes expire on the same date, February 28,
2010, with the threat of mass expulsion.

The temporary passports being issued to migrants, who have had their
nationality confirmed, are part of a process started by the signing of a
memorandum of understanding between Thailand and Burma in 2003. To date,
only around 2,000 Burmese migrants have been issued with passports. As the
name implies, these passports are only valid for three years. Migrants
with these passports can then apply for a work permit, which may be
extended for a further two years. After four years of working in Thailand,
the migrant will not be allowed back for three years.

Many of the ethnic nationalities of Burma fear repercussions for their
families if they enter the verification process and so are opting out of
the whole registration process. Having read the policy and heard the
threats, they are preparing to go home. They are working hard, saving
money and asking around about jobs in other countries. They will require
some assistance from Thai authorities to safely return to the border and
bid farewell to their lives in Thailand.

Others who are rejecting the verification and passport process are making
preparations of a different kind. They are preparing to return to the
illegal status and continue working. Many already have the experience of
being considered illegal and their experience is often that legal status
does not make a great deal of difference. Registering for a migrant
worker's card has never guaranteed a minimum wage or proper health and
safety standards or even days off. So, they will save the money they would
normally have paid for registration, and instead give it under the table
when demanded from the local police or immigration. They are also
preparing to ward off brokers and traffickers, and to run when needed.

And then there are some migrants who vacillate between getting verified or
not. The right to have a nationality, passport, be legal for four years,
be able to travel by local transport or drive are tempting. But the
concerns about taxation, repercussions on family members, increased costs
and the experience that the Burmese military regime has no qualms on
backtracking on policies and promises remain strong deterrents. Maybe if
the incentives were greater, more migrants would enter the process. If
having a passport and work permit guaranteed regular payment of minimum
wage; if it was not left up to the discretion of the employer to register
workers in the social security system to ensure that workers got free
healthcare and welfare benefits and rights; if the work permit did not
come with the three-year ban; maybe if migrants were not classed as
second-class citizens only worthy of a temporary passport; maybe if
migrants could travel on a normal passport and make their own decisions
regarding which country offered better conditions, more migrants would be
eager to join the process.

Even the previous registrations of migrant workers in Thailand in their
own way provided more security and stability than the four years of the
passport. Though only annual policies, they have been renewed again and
again over the last 17 years. Even the current policy acknowledges the
length of time migrants stay. All those migrants registering today have
been in Thailand for five years. With the passport system, they would be
long gone, having passed their expiry date of four years. With the ban on
returning for the following three years, they will surely be off to the
Middle East or elsewhere, certainly not waiting around to return to
Thailand.

Registration, temporary work permits, illegal status - the choices are
limited. And the choices all ignore the migrants and their families, their
lives, their talents, their interests and their dreams. The choices all
focus only on the productivity of the migrants, on the profits for the
employers and the country's economy. Woven through every policy is the
discourse of illegality and impermanence. It is time that migrants were
afforded identity, rights and protection as people as well as workers. A
migrant's right to healthcare or to housing should not be dependent on an
employer. Migrants need legal status as a people first and then as
workers.

"Booths on the border" is one possible solution. A migrant crosses into
Thailand and immediately gets a card with a photograph, which is then
entered into a computerised system. Thailand has the technology. The long
porous border, supposedly impossible to man, seems a bit of a myth when
one sits and watches the rubber rings floating across at Myawaddy to Mae
Sot. If the border is so long and porous, why cross right in front of the
immigration authorities? Land-mined and militarised might better describe
the Thai-Burma border. Immediate documentation of migrants on arrival
would put traffickers out of business, and brokers could only facilitate
not manipulate the labour market. Migrants could travel freely to their
places of work and then register with local authorities once they have
found work.

More migrants might come, but more migrants might also return. Research
has shown that the greater the restrictions placed on migration, the
longer migrants stay put. Ease the restrictions and migrants can move with
the economy, the labour flows and the normal patterns of ones life. The
restrictions mean that migrants risk everything to move and so will not
take that risk a second time, they will stay in the country of destination
despite economic downfalls or bad conditions because the risk of getting
home and not being able to return is too great.

If limiting the number of migrants arriving is a concern, then Thailand
together with Asean countries need to address the situation in Burma.
Migrants from Burma are simply looking for a chance to have a stable,
secure livelihood and outlive the military regime. Asean needs to speed up
the demise of the military dictatorship in Burma and give migrants the
choice of living in their own country or migrating for work.

There is an urgent need for review of the policies towards migrants and
towards Burma. Mass expulsion and mass unemployment of migrants without
temporary passports in February 2010 is a repugnant solution; collective
expulsions are inherently arbitrary and thus prohibited under
international human-rights law. They invariably result in accidents, abuse
and the separation of families.

Migrants have voiced concerns over the temporary passports, and these
concerns need to be taken into consideration for future policies. The
temporary passport may be one option but it is not the choice for most
migrants, and would take years to implement even with full cooperation
from the migrants, employers and Burmese authorities. Migrants are asking
for policies which protect their rights and dignity as people, which
enforce labour standards equal to their Thai counterparts, and which do
not force them to live in states of insecurity, instability and
dishonesty.

____________________________________

November 20, Voice of America
Obama presses Burma for reforms – Editorial

President Barack Obama has become personally involved with the United
States' effort to engage with the government of Burma, making a direct
appeal for the release of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other
political prisoners.

At a Leaders meeting in Singapore, Mr. Obama reaffirmed America’s
willingness to improve relations if Burma pursued democratic reforms and
freed Aung San Suu Kyi and more than 2,000 other political prisoners.
Existing U.S. economic sanctions on Burma will remain in place until there
are concrete steps toward democratic reform, he said.

South East Asian leaders joined in the President’s call for reform and
said that next year’s scheduled elections in Burma must be conducted in a
free, fair, inclusive and transparent manner in order to be credible to
the international community. Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein also
attended the meeting.

Burma's military has controlled the country since 1962 and presides over
one of the least developed economies in Asia. Tensions also run high
between the government and the nation's many ethnic minorities. If Burma's
internal problems are left unaddressed they will continue to threaten the
stability of the region and erode the poor quality of life for most
Burmese.

Since Mr. Obama took office and the U.S. completed a review of its Burma
policy, American and Burmese officials have engaged in serious
discussions. The President’s comments demonstrate his interest and
commitment to promoting democracy in Burma.

The U.S. hopes that Burma’s military leaders will seize the opportunity to
improve its relations with the international community with broad
political and economic reforms. The world is eager for Burma's response.

____________________________________

November 20, Sydney Morning Herald
Burma engagement offers false hope – Graham Reilly

A renewed US push seems destined to fail as the junta pursues self-interest.

ONE of the few predictable aspects of Burmese politics is how the ruling
military regime responds to outside attempts to influence the direction of
the country's internal affairs. A good example is how it reacted to the
calamitous circumstances of last year's cyclone Nargis. If there was ever
a time that the generals could have relaxed their xenophobic view of the
world and welcomed Western help, this should have been it.

But despite the fact that Nargis devastated much of the southern part of
the country, ultimately killing 140,000 people and affecting 2.4 million,
the obsessively inward-looking regime refused to accept aid for three
critical weeks.

The callous response illustrated how suspicious the regime is of the
outside world and how little it cares about criticism from it. The
generals listen only to themselves (and the odd astrologer).

This is a regime that is seemingly immune to pressure to change its ways
and introduce political freedoms or human rights in a country that has
been criminally lacking in both since 1962. The regime's primary concern
is the perpetuation of its own power and wealth at the expense of ordinary
Burmese. It does not accept that it should be accountable to its own
people and as such has no imperative to act in their best interests. Eight
days after the cyclone hit, the regime went ahead with a referendum on a
new constitution, part of its much-criticised ''road map to democracy'',
and announced that an unbelievable 92 per cent voted in favour. This is
the context in which any renewed attempts at dialogue must be seen.

Another attempt is under way to engage with the regime and nudge it along
the road of democracy. It is being led by the United States, which has
acknowledged that its policy of isolating Burma through sanctions alone
has failed. The US is now pursuing what it calls ''pragmatic engagement''
while keeping sanctions in place. It hopes that dangling the possibility
of easing economic sanctions will be incentive enough for the regime to
free political prisoners (most notably democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi)
and ensure next year's elections are free and fair. The regime is known to
be desperate to have sanctions lifted.

Earlier this month, the US Secretary of State for East Asia, Kurt
Campbell, and his deputy, Scot Marciel, met Burmese Prime Minister Thein
Sein in Rangoon. They also met Suu Kyi, who was released from house arrest
for the day. Significantly, they did not meet with the senior general Than
Shwe, who more or less makes all the important decisions.

Campbell and Marciel are the two most-senior US officials to visit Burma
since Madeleine Albright in 1995. Her visit came five years after the
regime refused to hand over power to Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy after it won a landslide election victory.

Not long after the visit by Campbell and Marciel, Thein Sein announced
that Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for 14 of the past 20 years,
could soon be released to ''contribute to the process of national
reconciliation''. What that might be remains to be seen, given that the
constitution bars her from elected office.

That aside, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, perhaps sensing
change, then called on the regime to release Suu Kyi. Singapore is also
understood to have suspended investment in Burma until after the election,
in the hope that this will encourage a more democratic voting process.

It has also been revealed that before the US envoys' visit, Suu Kyi wrote
to Than Shwe suggesting direct talks, a move that some regional observers
have welcomed as an important development. Suu Kyi, who had her house
arrest extended by another 18 months in August, is understood to have last
met Than Shwe in 2003.

Some international observers are hoping the changed approach from the US
could get results. Are there, at last, grounds to be optimistic about the
future of Burma?

The problem is that engagement with Burma has been tried many times
before, and always without success. Nor is it the first time the regime
has promised to free Suu Kyi, or that Suu Kyi has expressed her
willingness to meet the generals. The patterns are all too familiar, the
accommodating noises from the generals eerily similar to those uttered
before.

The US sees the election as the opportune time to begin a process of
democratic change. But, for

the generals, the election is the culmination of nearly 50 years of
running the country. They have no interest negotiating their own demise.

The generals want to tighten their grip on the country and they have
moulded the constitution so that they can do just that. They have nobbled
the media and they will not be in a hurry to free Suu Kyi so that she can
arouse mass enthusiasm for another political party. And any younger army
officers harbouring ideas of a more pluralistic society have been kept
sweet with more privileges. The election will be a confirmation, if not a
tribute, to the generals' own success.

Burma might be going backwards when it comes to human rights, health and
education, but for the military regime it's business as usual.

Graham Reilly is a senior writer.
____________________________________

November 20, Kantarawaddy Times
Burma's election: Road map to more military rule

The final piece in the Burmese military regimes, 'Road Map to Democracy',
is the national elections planned for 2010. As part of their 'Road Map',
in May 2008, the regime held a national referendum to vote on a draft
constitution.

FREE and FAIR ELECTIONS?- Khun Myint Tun Labor Minister, National
Coalition Government of the Union of Burma and former political prisoner,
served a seven year and three month jail term in solitary confinement for
possession of a political booklet. (Photo: Phil Thornton)Many
international observers, including the New York based Human Rights Watch,
said the process was a sham. Human Rights Watch said the referendum "
lack
freedom of access to information, freedom of speech and expression, a free
media, and freedom of association and assembly."

As the 2010 election fast approaches it seems nothing has changed for the
Burmese people.

According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the
regime is still jailing people for their political activities. AAPP's
website says there are a total of 2,168 political prisoners in Burma.

"This is an overall increase of 49 in comparison to last month's figure of
2,119. In October, 41 political prisoners were arrested, and 3 were
released."

One man who knows Burma's political situation well is Khun Myint Tun. He
was part of the ethnic delegation at the drafting of the national
constitution, but after having his mail opened, being followed and
threatened, he walked out. He was later jailed for seven years and three
months for having in his possession a booklet on non-violent protest. He
was also elected in 1990 in Burma's last national elections, Khun Myint
Tun says.

"This constitution is permanent. The military automatically get 25 percent
of the seats. After the election, the new government must obey the
constitution and will maintain military power. The country will never
become a democracy or a federal state."

AAPP says since the Saffron Revolution in 2007 Burma's military regime has
been busy locking up its political opponents.

"
 a total of 1,156 activists have been arrested [since 2007] and are
still in detention," according to AAPP.

Human Rights Watch said in its report on political prisoners that Burma's
planned elections in 2010 would not be credible unless the regime released
all Burmese prisoners.

Human Rights Watch, Washington advocacy director Tom Malinowski said.
"Burma's generals are planning elections next year that will be a sham if
their opponents are in prison."

At a village level people do not feel the elections will be fair.

FREE and FAIR ELECTIONS?- Su Su Nway, labor activist was arrested on 13
November 2007 for putting up an anti-government banner near a hotel where
UN Human Rights Envoy Paulo Pinheiro was staying at the time. She was
sentenced to 12 years and six months, reduced to eight years and six
months. (Photo: AAPP)HRW said in its report that the regime has
effectively blocked discussion or debate of the national constitution by
jailing its critics. This has ensured many Burmese people are not aware of
the clauses that bar anyone married to a foreigner, such as Aung San Suu
Kyi, from running for office and that 25 percent of seats are
automatically awarded to the military. A resident from Loikaw City in
Karenni State spoke to The Kantarawaddy Times.

"I had never heard of this kind of constitution that the military gets
this much percent of seats in the parliament? The constitution was drafted
for the military regime to continue to keep their power. Although the
coming election will finish successfully, any kind of human rights
situation will not be better for our citizens."

A young NLD member quoted in HRW 2008 report 'Vote to Nowhere' said he
'fled to the Thailand-Burma border in March 2008 after officers from the
Special Branch came looking for him and his pamphlets critical of the
referendum at his parents' Rangoon home'.The young NLD member said in the
same report.

"My father said, "Don't come home, the Special Branch is looking for you."
I went into hiding. My pamphlets were about the referendum. If I got
caught with the pamphlets I would get three years for criticizing the
referendum or 20 years under the constitution law (5/96). I cannot go
back. I worry about my friends, they have to live underground."

As the 2010 election approaches nothing has changed in Burma. People are
still be jailed for their political views and debate about the election
has been stifled. Not only the Burmese opposition fears the election will
not be free.

In its editorial on 18 November The Bangkok Post used US President Barack
Obama words to remind the Burmese regime if its election is serious they
must release all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi The
Bangkok Post said.

"Mrs Suu Kyi has become the symbol of the suffering and brutality caused
by the military dictators since 1962. But thousands of Burmese are
imprisoned today for nothing more dangerous than peaceful opposition to
the army junta and its government. So long as one of them remains locked
up, the planned election cannot be free."