BurmaNet News, January 5, 2010

[Editor]

January 5, 2010, Issue #3869


INSIDE BURMA
Guardian (UK): Fears that Burma's first poll since 1990 will tighten
junta's grip as voters warned: make correct choice
Mizzima News: Another 20-year prison term for undercover reporter Hla Hla Win
IMNA: Opposition to 2010 election, the writing is on the road

ON THE BORDER
South China Morning Post: Myanmar casino boss accused of laundering

REGIONAL
Utusan Malaysia: UNHCR estimates 90,000 refugees seeking asylum in Malaysia

INTERNATIONAL
VOA: Australian firm sells radios used by Burma military
DVB: UN chief praises ‘support’ from junta
Asahi Shimbun (Japan): Burmese in Japan shoot film to fight for democracy

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Chasing change in Burma – Dr. Zarni
Irrawaddy: Predicting the unpredictable – Aung Naing Oo
Independent (UK): Burmese gloomy over election year prospects – Phoebe
Kennedy




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 5, Guardian (UK)
Fears that Burma's first poll since 1990 will tighten junta's grip as
voters warned: make correct choice – Justin McCurry

Burma's military leader confirmed yesterday that the country would hold
its first election in two decades this year, but warned voters to make the
"correct choice" when they go to the polls.

The long-awaited election would be Burma's first since 1990, when the main
opposition party, led by the democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, won by a
landslide. The junta ignored the result.

In an occasionally cryptic message to mark the anniversary of Burma's
independence from Britain in 1948, General Than Shwe said his seven-stage
road map was the sole process in the country's transition to democracy.

"Plans are under way to hold elections in a systematic way this year," he
said in the address read out on television by a senior junta official. "In
that regard, the entire people have to make correct choices." No date has
been set for the election.

The 76-year-old general also warned people to "remain vigilant at all
times against dangers posed by neocolonialists", in a reference to the US,
Britain and other western nations critical of the military regime's record
on human rights.

Some will interpret the message as a warning not to vote for Aung San Suu
Kyi 's National League for Democracy. The NLD does not recognise the
country's new military-authored constitution and has yet to decide whether
to take part in the election.

Yesterday the NLD called on the junta, which seized power in 1962, to
release the country's estimated 2,000 political prisoners and begin a
dialogue with opposition parties. "All the stakeholders need to hold a
dialogue with a sincere intention towards national reconciliation and for
the benefit of the country and the people," said Khin Muang Swe, head of
the party's central executive committee.

Opponents of the regime have dismissed the election as a sham, as the
constitution guarantees a quarter of parliamentary seats for the military.
The junta has yet to decide who can run for office, while representatives
of Burma's ethnic minorities say they plan to boycott the vote.

Critics say the contest will tighten the regime's grip on power by
producing a legislature dominated by the military and its civilian allies.

Aung San Suu Kyi is not expected to play any part in the vote after a
court last year extended her house arrest for a further 18 months to 2011.
The Nobel peace laureate has spent 14 of the past 20 years in prison or
under house arrest. Burma's supreme court said last week it would review
an appeal against her latest detention on 18 January.

Last week Gordon Brown wrote a personal letter to the detained leader in
which he urged the regime to hold free and fair elections. "If the
scheduled elections proceed under a rigged constitution, with opposition
leaders excluded and no international oversight, the military leaders will
be condemning Burma to more years of diplomatic isolation and economic
stagnation," he said.

Barack Obama is pursuing a policy of engagement with the junta,
dispatching a high-level mission to Burma in November to persuade the
leadership to improve human rights.

While Washington yesterday congratulated the Burmese people on 62 years of
independence, it said it looked forward to the day when they could
"exercise freely their universal human rights".

14

The number of years since 1990 that democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has
been in jail or kept under house arrest

____________________________________

January 5, Mizzima News
Another 20-year prison term for undercover reporter Hla Hla Win – Phanida

Chiang Mai – The Pakokku District court gave another 20-year prison term
to an undercover female reporter, a judicial court source said.

Hla Hla Win, believed to be a video reporter for an exile based news
agency currently being held in Pakokku prison, and her co-accused in the
same case Myint Naing, were given additional 20 and 25 year prison
sentences respectively on  December 31st.

They were charged under the Electronic Act and for another political case
which has yet to be made public.

Hla Hla Win and her host Myint Naing were arrested on  September 11th last
year on their way back from Pakokku Sasana Wapuula Yama Pali Tekkatho (Ah
Nauk Tike) in Magwe Division, where Hla Hla Win interviewed local monks.
The Pakokku Township court gave them a 7 year prison sentence each on 
October 6th under section 51 of Export Import Act for using an illegally
imported motorcycle.

The lawyers in Pakokku are reluctant to represent the accused in political
cases in fear of possible harassments and intimidation from police and
local authorities. Furthermore unattractive lawyers’ fees for these cases
are another disincentive, a Rangoon based legal consultant Aung Thein
said.

Thai-based Burma Media Association (BMA) Vice-Chairman Zin Lin said that
they strongly condemn the additional long prison terms given to the female
reporter.

“She was arrested while she was trying to cover news and facts which
should be known by the people. We strongly condemn the long prison
sentences to a reporter which are framed under a false case. We object
this act”, Zin Lin said.

According to BMA, a total of 14 reporters were arrested in 2009,after the
2007 September saffron revolution.

(Edited by Ko Wild)

____________________________________

January 5, Independent Mon News Agency
Opposition to 2010 election, the writing is on the road – Jaloon Htaw

In a deliberate display of protest on New Years Day, and on the
politically significant Burmese Independence Day, Mon youth carried out
varied acts of defiance, most prominently spray paining roads with
slogans, condemning the election plans slated for 2010.

On the morning of January 1st, 2010, slogans opposing the 2010 election
were found spray painted onto the asphalt along the highway from Moulmein
to Ye town, area residents reported to IMNA.

According to one Mon youth from Moulmein, they wrote “2010” in the western
Latin script, and a large ‘X’ through the date, meaning that they opposed
the current plans for the 2010 election. The youth explained they wrote
these words on the road early on New Years Day, 2010.

He reported also hearing that a hot air balloon had been made and recently
launched on Burma’s Independence Day, January 4th, painted with slogans
condemning the election.

 “They made a hot air balloon on Burma’s Independence Day. On that balloon
they wrote that they oppose the 2010 election,” he explained. As
previously reported by IMNA on September 8th, 2009, 2 Mon youth groups
launched a large traditional hot air balloon, also bearing a statement,
voicing solidarity with the New Mon State Party’s (NMSP) refusal to join
the Border Guard Force proposed by the Burmese military government.

According to a Moulmein university student, the youth from the Moulmein
area also conducted activities to oppose to the 2010 election.
Specifically Moulimein youth organized celebratory games, a common
occurrence on Burma’s Independence Day, on arterial roads off the main
highway. There, youth spoke individually with spectators about human
rights, and how, according to one youth, “All people have rights.”

“Now the youth are very active. They are making more [political]
activities. But I have not heard about anyone being arrested,” he added.

The slogans painted on the road are visible to all vehicles passing
between Moulmein and Ye town. According to an eyewitness who traveled form
Moulmein to Thanphyuzayart, the words were spray painted to the road in
several locations; at Mudon town, Young Doung village bridge, Kwan Tar
village, Naing Hlone village, Taw Kuu village, Mudon township and also at
the Thanphyuzayart town road.

“What they wrote in one place was not the same as what they wrote in
another place,” the passerby explained. “Some were written with an ‘X’
through the year, some were written as ‘NO 2010’. The youth who wrote
these are the ones who oppose the SPDC. What they mean is that they do not
agree with the [Burmese government] 2010 election.”

These acts of defiance come at a sensitive time, marking the first of the
year in which the Burmese military junta has stated it plans to hold
nation wide elections, and also on the nation’s 62nd Independence Day from
British colonial rule.

Not surprisingly then, residents and passengers along the road have
reported an increase in Burmese military security forces.  According to
one monk from Moulmein, the security increase came on January 1st after
the slogans on the road were found.

“When we were going around for donations from the people in the early
morning, we saw those slogans,” the Moulmein monk recounted. “After that 3
trucks of soldiers came and just sat by Mattgin road and Voot Kyi Pagoda
road in Moulmein.”

No reports have yet been made of arrests pertaining to any of the youth
activity.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 5, South China Morning Post
Myanmar casino boss accused of laundering – Yvonne Tsui and Loretta Fong

The head of a family online casino business based in Myanmar is accused of
laundering hundreds of millions of dollars in Hong Kong from the proceeds
of his alleged illegal gambling operation.

Tam Hung, 58, pleaded not guilty in the District Court yesterday to three
charges of money laundering.

He is accused of using three bank accounts in Hong Kong to handle HK$314.1
million generated from the New Oriental Casino business between October
2005 and March 2007 in Myanmar.

Tam was arrested on January 31 last year in a branch of Wing Hang Bank in
Cheung Sha Wan Road, Sham Shui Po.

Prosecuting barrister Judy Ma said the money came from the casino business
that Tam and his family operated under a company called New Oriental
Group.

In her opening speech, Ma said Tam opened the New Oriental Casino
operation on the Myanmese border with Yunnan in 1999. The present case
concerned mainly two casinos that Tam opened between 2005 and 2007,
including one in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin state, she said.

Ma said Tam was president of the group and his two sons were
vice-presidents. Tam's lover, Sit Hon-lan, was also a vice-president and
her younger brother, Sit Chung-chiu, was financial controller.

Ma alleged that the revenue of the two casinos was managed by Tam, who
would pass the money to Sit who would then take care of the finances of
the casinos.

The court was told that revenue from the casinos had been handled by Tam
through the accounts he opened in Hong Kong at Wing Hang Bank, Standard
Chartered Bank, Bank of China and Hang Seng Bank.

Sit was also in charge of bank accounts opened on the mainland using the
names of all staff members of the casinos, Ma said, adding that these
accounts were mainly operated to facilitate the remittance of funds by
gamblers for betting.

Ma told the court that all customers betted in yuan at the two casinos and
special arrangements could be made through the casinos for gamblers, most
of whom were mainlanders, to enter and leave Myanmar without a special
permit.

Apart from gambling at the casinos, the prosecutor said customers could
also gamble online.

They could hire agents to place bets for them in casinos while they
watched online on the website, or take part in internet betting on another
site, she said.

The hearing continues today before Deputy Judge Rickie Chan Kam-cheong.

In August 2008, Tam's sons, Tam Chi-wei and Tam Chi-moon, were jailed for
eight and five years, respectively, in a court in Kunming , Yunnan, for
running illegal online casinos.

It was the biggest internet gambling case on the mainland, involving
people from five provinces and municipalities.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

January 5, Utusan Malaysia
UNHCR estimates 90,000 refugees seeking asylum in Malaysia – Thomas Chong

Putrajaya – The political stability in Malaysia has attracted 90,000
refugees from various countries to seek asylum in this country.

According to the UNHCR 2010 report, 90 per cent of them are refugees from
Burma.

"Apart from Burma, there are also refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq,
Somalia, and Sri Lanka seeking asylum in Malaysia.

"In the meantime, Malaysia has also become a place of refuge for stateless
people - about 60,000 Muslim Filipinos are residing in Sabah," says the
report quoted from the UNHCR website, www.unhcr.org.

The UN organization says that the endeavour to provide asylum to refugees
in Malaysia has become complicated as this country also has about 3
million migrants, of which a million are undocumented migrants.

"Malaysian laws do not distinguish refugees from unregistered migrants.

"This exposes refugees to the risk of being arrested by the authorities
for immigration offences, resulting in the fate of being jailed, charged,
whipped, or deported," said the report.

According to the report, the UNHCR has worked together with some NGO in
Malaysia to provide humanitarian aid to the refugees.

The international organization predicts that Malaysia will continue to be
a destination for refugees and has set a number of goals to help the
refugee community.

"One of our goals is to provide skill training for 3,800 teenagers and
education opportunities for 3,000 children.

"The UNHCR also wishes to assist 15,000 refugees in Malaysia to be
relocated to other countries," said the report.

Source: Utusan Malaysia website, Kuala Lumpur, in Malay 4 Jan 10

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 5, Voice of America
Australian firm sells radios used by Burma military

The Perth-based firm Barrett Communications reportedly has sold about 50
radio sets to the Burmese government.

International monitors say sophisticated radios sold by an Australian firm
are being used by Burma's military despite an Australian embargo against
military sales to the east Asian nation.

Australian media reported Tuesday that the Perth-based firm Barrett
Communications has sold about 50 radio sets to the Burmese government.
Company officials confirmed the sale, but said they were
commercially-available, civilian radios and not intended for military use.

The radios have an advanced feature that prevents transmissions from being
monitored.

Australian Senator Scott Ludlam issued a statement Tuesday condemning the
sale of the radios and called for a freeze on all future sales.

In his statement, Ludlam said international monitors that watch Burma say
the radios have been used in recent months by the Burmese army as they
have waged brutal wars against ethnic minorities and pro-democracy forces.

____________________________________

January 5, Democratic Voice of Burma
UN chief praises ‘support’ from junta – Francis Wade

The UN secretary general yesterday congratulated the head of Burma’s
ruling junta on the country’s 62nd Independence Day anniversary and
extolled the general’s “support” for UN goals.

The cajoling coincided with an announcement by Senior General Than Shwe,
who has ruled Burma since 1992, that elections would take place this year,
although he failed to confirm a date.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon said in a letter to the general, published in the
state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper, that it was his “great pleasure”
to extend his congratulations for the anniversary. Burma gained
independence in 1948 after 124 years of British rule.

“It is heartening to know that the United Nations can rely on the guidance
and support of Myanmar [Burma] in all its endeavours,” he said. “Please
accept, Your Excellency, the assurances of my highest consideration.”

Ban Ki-moon was twice denied a meeting with detained Burmese opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi during his visit to the pariah state in May, which
came amidst a barrage of criticism about his “soft” approach to so-called
‘rogue’ states, such as Burma.

The letter also sought to emphasize cooperation in meeting the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, which include the reduction of extreme
poverty and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS.

According to medical aid group, Medicins San Frontieres (MSF), Burma
continues to be one of the world’s lowest spenders on healthcare, at 0.3
percent of GDP, while less 20 percent of people in urgent need of HIV/AIDS
treatment receive it.

The country ranked 132 out of 177 countries in the 2007-2008 UNDP Human
Development Index, with an annual per capita gross national income of only
US$220. It is consistently placed low on many political, social and
economic barometers.

The tone of Ban Ki-moon’s letter however corresponds to an international
shift in approach to dealing with the Burmese junta, which has
progressively been isolated through more than a decade of sanctions.

“Obviously diplomats couch their language in highly diplomatic terms, so
he is looking to build bridges and I think it probably is the appropriate
thing to be doing at this time,” said James East, regional communications
advisor at World Vision, one of the signatories to the MDGs.

He added that encouragement of the junta was at present preferable to
“pointing the finger”, which has to date been the policy of Burma’s
strongest critics, such as the United States.

The UN said in December that it would support a review of Burma’s efforts
to achieve the MDGs, whilst boosting assistance to its depleted
agricultural sector, which was devastated by cyclone Nargis in May 2008.

____________________________________

January 5, Asahi Shimbun (Japan)
Burmese in Japan shoot film to fight for democracy – Erika Toh

With hopes of encouraging their compatriots in their struggle for
democracy, a group of Burmese living in Japan is making a film denouncing
the military junta that controls Myanmar (Burma).

They hope to distribute DVDs of the film in Myanmar prior to general
elections slated for this year.

The production is led by Htay Thit, who was involved in filmmaking in
Myanmar as an actor, set decorator and makeup artist.

The 52-year-old is director of "Kanashii Irawaji" (Sorrows of the
Irrawaddy river), which portrays a sister and her brother who lose their
parents in floods that lashed the Irrawaddy delta in May 2008.

When a cyclone pounded southern Myanmar and inundated the delta, the
military government initially refused to accept offers of international
humanitarian assistance.

The delay in aid operations is believed to have greatly added to the
number of casualties.

The 90-minute film blames the government for the people's plight,
depicting the suffering of the two children and the tragic fate awaiting
the boy, who is forcibly taken by the military to serve as a soldier. Htay
Thit wrote the script.

Back in the 1980s, Htay Thit developed a distrust of the military when he
took part in the production of a movie commissioned by the junta.

While working on a scene in which a military officer was helping
villagers, he heard an elderly local man mutter, "It's a lie."

After the pro-democracy movement was crushed by the army in 1988, Htay
Thit was called on to join the production of a film depicting
anti-government protesters as villains.

Unable to bear life under the junta, he fled to Japan in 1991. It was only
in 2008 that he was granted a special permit to reside in Japan.

Following the 2007 crackdown on anti-government demonstrations led by
monks and ordinary citizens, Htay Thit produced his first DVD in Japan. It
combined short stories with footage of news reports.

The Irrawaddy film is his second. About 80 Japan-based Burmese answered
his call for assistance and joined the production.

None of the "actors" had previous experience in movie production, but one
of his assistants had been involved in film editing in Myanmar.

The group started shooting in May, mostly on weekends.

In the fall, they shot some scenes on the bank of the Edogawa river in
Nagareyama, Chiba Prefecture, where trees grow thickly along the flow of
the muddy water.

In one scene, a man dressed in a traditional Burmese longyi sarong asks an
officer in a military uniform about relief supplies. The officer bluntly
replies, "I've arranged it."

Htay Thit watched as the actors delivered their lines, while his
assistants carried microphones and reflector boards around them.

The director said he chose the location after he traveled past the river
and felt "the landscape was just like my motherland's."

The production has been strongly supported by the resident Burmese
community in Japan.

Some 10,000 Burmese live in Japan. The number is far smaller than in
Thailand, which has refugee camps, or in the United States, Australia and
European nations that actively accept refugees.

But when a rally calling for democracy in their motherland is held in
Tokyo, it can attract up to 1,000 people, compared with 100 to 300 in the
United States and elsewhere.

Maung Maung, general secretary of the National Council of the Union of
Burma (NCUB), said the Burmese democracy movement in Japan was "much
stronger than (in) other countries." Based in Thailand, the NCUB is
working for democracy in Myanmar.

Some observers say, however, that it is an ironic reflection of the fact
that the number of refugees recognized in Japan is far smaller than in
other countries.

In Japan, only several dozen people obtain official recognition as
refugees each year.

The difficulty has prompted those desperately wanting refugee status to
come out in the open and engage in pro-democracy activities to show they
are seeking asylum for political reasons, which pushes the number of rally
participants up, they say.

Members of Htay Thit's group believe the film has the power to encourage
their fellow citizens.

"To change our country, those of us who are outside must take action," one
actor said.

The film will be screened in Tokyo this year with Japanese subtitles. It
will also be broadcast on the Internet by the Democratic Voice of Burma, a
multimedia organization based in Oslo.

Despite the authorities' tight control, the group hopes to smuggle DVDs of
the film into Myanmar so that ordinary Burmese have an opportunity to see
it.

"There must be people in the military who regret the current situation,"
Htay Thit says. "I hope they will see it, too."

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 5, Irrawaddy
Chasing change in Burma – Dr. Zarni

“Change” has been the most important buzzword in the world of Burma ever
since the “8.8.88” events which brought down the flimsy bamboo fence of
Gen Ne Win's “Burmese Way to Socialism.” And yet, generally speaking, most
activists and analysts who make Burma change Doe-A-Yay or “Our Business”
have failed to either affect the process positively, or adequately
understand the unfolding process of
regressive change unleashed by the region's capitalist transformation.

The metaphor that springs to mind when I think about our Burma world of
activists and analysts is the tale of “The Elephant and Six Blind
Brahmins.” Some of us touch the ears and, with confidence, pronounce it to
be a fan-like flat and flabby creature while others whose palms land on
its legs describe the creature to be like a tree trunk.

Our issues seem to attract analysts, foreign and local, who elevate their
more or less monocausal explanations into analytical mono-theisms. For
these learned men (and women) tend to hold onto
their respective analyses rather religiously, be they historians mining
fruitlessly the pre-colonial and colonial pasts for answers to the big
questions confronting present-day Burma, statist political scientists who
can only conceive the world through the prism of the (modern) State and
state-building, norm-obsessed academics who weave their selective liberal
values into their Burma analytical frameworks, or left-leaning analysts
who remain stuck intellectually in their stale Cold War analytical
paradigm.
As analysts and activists we ignore the ever-evolving realities on the
ground—for instance, the increasingly anti-humanist, callous and feudal
characteristics of the regime leadership and the categorically repressive
nature of the State.

Who amongst the Burmese nationalists such as the late Aung San, or even
the Burmese communists of the olden days, would have thought Buddhists in
military uniform would behave in a far more fascist fashion towards the
“Keepers of the Faith” than the Japanese Fascists during the World War II
years? Or who would have imagined that the plight of local farmers in
present-day Burma under Burmese rule would be far worse than even that of
their peasant ancestors under British colonialism during the Great
Depression of the 1930s?

Worse still, what kind of native leadership would spend $600 million on
Russian MiG-29s based on an unsubstantiated perception of threats to the
country, while the World Food Program feels compelled to feed the poor in
pockets of famine-like conditions across Burma?

In my 20-year involvement in the pro-change activism and debates, wearing
different hats as an activist and an analyst, I have witnessed the
emergence of pet paradigms, initiatives, policies and strategies.
Emphatically, I am as guilty as anyone in having doggedly advanced my own
pet paradigms, policy ideas and strategic initiatives.

The world of Burma analyses and policies resembles that of a
pseudo-science or logical nonsense. It has no real process of
elimination—that is, elimination of bad ideas, strategies or policies
whose validity as truth claims can be verified or falsified, even in the
face of qualitatively and empirically superior policy ideas and strategic
possibilities.

Consequently, various sets of mutually incompatible policy logics (and
even policy objectives) continue to co-exist. Some policy and strategy
buzzwords spring to mind: sanctions and/or engagements, non-violence
and/or armed resistance, dialogue and/or defiance, and reconciliation or
re consolidation.

In today's Burma world of “pragmatic incrementalism,” revolution is viewed
as an idea whose time has come and gone while radicalism, that is,
attempting to address the root causes, has become a dirty word
among the Burmese who say they share with revolutionaries the desire for
“real change.” Pathetically, some local talking heads are even publicly
scornful of any Burmese who questions the wisdom of unconditional
collaboration with the regime whose politics exclude vital operative words
such as compromise, conciliation and cooperation.

The Burma ideas currently in vogue are “capacity building,” “civil
society,” “gradualism,” “economic developmentalism,” “bottom-up reforms,”
and so on. Never mind that the country is fast-heading towards a text-book
case of “Natural Resource Curse.” Or that no parallel can be drawn between
Burma's militarized, low-capacity and parasitical State under the
Neanderthal leadership that lives off the back of forced labor, land and
natural resources, and a typical East Asian “developmental state” (for
instance, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, and China) ruled by visionary and
capable autocrats, well-trained bureaucrats, and innovative technocrats
leading the labor force whose concern is largely this worldly success, all
helped by the infusion of massive foreign direct investment, developmental
loans and technological import.

Furthermore, many dissidents have felt compelled to distance themselves
from their radical pasts. The cliche “we have found our enemy and it is
us” is often thrown around when it comes to the opposition and its failure
to effect change in Burma. The more adaptable ones amongst us have morphed
into professional analysts.

All this is due in large part to the emerging analytical/academic and
policy discourses which conveniently place the blame squarely on the
shoulders of the opposition while ignoring the greatest elephant in the
room, that is, the militarized State and the callous leadership that is
surfing on the latest wave of capitalist transformation in Asia.

Yet the opposition is being blamed for its failures to adapt its
strategies and campaigns to the changing geopolitics and geo-economic
equations in the region and globally, for its failure to develop viable,
alternative institutions and networks, for its lack of unity and for its
personality-driven politics, just to name a few.

Before the two momentous events, Cyclone Nargis and the massive crackdown
on the Buddhist Order, I too was one of the opposition's vociferous
internal critics (while always remaining ever-scathing in my critique of
its oppressor in terms of both its policies and leadership).

These are, however, defining events in Burmese history which signal a
disturbingly regressive evolution of the psyche of both the
decision-makers and their inner circle deputies. Additionally, there is an
evolutionary dimension to the nature of State security institutions on
which their power rests.

The security apparatuses, most specifically the Tatmadaw, are evolving
from a venerable patriotic force defending and serving the public into a
popularly reviled parasitical armed organization serving only the
interests of the top generals who behave more like Burma's 18th century
feudal
war-lords than 21st century nation-builders.

Since these aforementioned watersheds, unprecedented in the country's
living memory, one is forced to reflect critically on one's long-held
views and analyses based on the significant new developments on the
ground.  Paraphrasing John Maynard Keynes, one needs to change one’s view
when the information changes.

While other important factors deserve scrutiny by analysts and activists I
would assign relatively greater explanatory weight to these two major
factors: the militarized State and the regressively feudal nature of the
military leadership that is surfing on the latest wave of capitalist
transformation in Asia.

For contemporary events and processes in Burma are disproportionately
influenced, if not completely dictated or shaped, by one or two
personalities and these regime leaders devote inordinate amount of energy
and resources to ensure these institutions remain fully in compliance with
their whims.

At present we Burmese are in danger of becoming the world's first bunch of
social changers whose highest aim appears to embrace the irredeemably
oppressive regime in power. In fact, the latter is moving full-steam ahead
to legalize its regressive political agenda, institutionalizing a new form
of Burmese military rule, control and domination over the rest of the
society using the liberal language of democracy.

Ridiculously, the quibble amongst many of us is over how much
constitutional and/or procedural tweaking the regime should permit us to
do in Burma's domestic politics.

How times have changed! What of our democratic friends in solidarity with
our once worthy cause?

While prime ministers and presidents in the West utter impassioned words
of loud praise of and admiration for Aung San Suu Kyi (and presumably her
revolutionary colleagues behind bars and in exile as well) policy wonks
and career bureaucrats in their governments, quietly and not so quietly,
explore ways to, in effect, accommodate the regime's “Burmese Way to
Democracy.”

Here George Orwell must be turning in his grave as he would certainly
recognize democracies' Double-Speak: pseudo-constitutionalism with a
decidedly militaristic bent as the next best thing for Burma! These
western liberals who walk the corridors of power certainly know better;
but, they must all be pitying us and thinking that this is the best the
Burmese can do, or deserve, at this point in history. And they are pushing
our dissidents on the ground to swallow this rubbish.

I detect monotheistic views behind this not-so-honorable trend.

All mono-causal analyses single out certain explanatory factors, assign
them disproportionate weight and proceed to manufacture narratives, policy
or otherwise, as if they were exhaustive of all possible explanations and
possibilities. In due course, analysts remain stuck in their mono-causal
paradigms, turning their own pet paradigms into monotheistic faiths.

Here I offer sample monotheisms: “the opposition's lack of unity,” “Aung
San Suu Kyi's presumed ideologically purity and her rumored stubbornness,”
“China's and India's embrace of the regime,” “the omnipotent and
ever-expanding modern State,” “the curse of geography,” “the
bleeding-heart liberals' Good-versus-Evil Burma view and its resultant
sanctions” and “the military's nationalism and its threat perceptions.”
The list goes on.

Even if the opposition were united under a more operationally capable
leadership and ethnic resistance stuck together, the much-touted unity
would still lack socially transformative power, as long as the repressive
State and its leadership remain strategically positioned in this
unstoppable, amoral process of regional capitalist development unfolding
before our eyes.

The most crucial question for me as a Burmese who wants “positive change”
for my country is not simply democratization and ethnic equality, but most
crucially how we as a society survive ecologically, economically and
politically this all-encompassing capitalist transformation enveloping the
region.

Dr. Zarni founded the Free Burma Coalition. He is a Research Fellow on
Burma at the Centre for the Study of Global Governance, the London School
of Economics and Political Science.

____________________________________

January 5, Irrawaddy
Predicting the unpredictable – Aung Naing Oo

If the political opposition is widely involved in the election, Burma will
begin an irreversible transition away from authoritarianism.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) will decide to contest the 2010
election, despite its current demands for a constitutional review and
other preconditions to be met before it participates. The run-up to the
election will be similar to 1990: house arrests, detentions and
restrictions. However, the NLD’s pragmatic decision to participate will
provide legitimacy to the much criticized process, offer voters a greater
choice and prevent a political vacuum in the opposition movement.

The NLD should be prepared to work with younger military officers within
the constitutional framework toward shared goals of reconciliation, nation
building and development.

Sadly, Burma’s democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi will remain under house
arrest. She has adopted a more flexible position toward sanctions,
however, most importantly, she should signal her commitment to a long-term
pact between the civilian and military leadership.

New ethnic political actors will enter the election. However, the regime’s
demand that armed ethnic groups disarm will remain contentious,
potentially triggering renewed hostilities. All sides should stick to
diplomacy. The Burmese military should adopt more comprehensive,
participatory approaches to reintegrate armed ethnic groups.

Unity among various opposition groups will remain elusive, while their
international campaigns for ideal conditions in the election will
undermine democrats within Burma who see the election as an opportunity
for change. Hardliners within the armed forces, determined to defend their
vested interests, will remain a formidable challenge both for the new
generation of military officers and democratic actors who might
potentially be willing to compromise for a common future in the new
Constitutional context.
To achieve national reconciliation, the military will have to find ways to
recognise the results of the 1990 election so that the process can move
forward, and even then, attitudes toward the election will remain
politically divided. But no matter how flawed the process, the election
can bring about some liberalization.

If the NLD and other opposition figures are involved, though it may take
at least a decade, Burma will move toward an irreversible transition away
from military authoritarianism. Two factors will be critical: the capacity
of the new Parliament members to build a coalition of the willing around a
vision of rebuilding the country, and bottom-up civil society development
as a vehicle for social change. If the 2010 election process can be
considered a necessary step for national reconciliation, there is a good
chance of democratization in Burma.

Aung Naing Oo is the deputy director of the Vahu Development Institute, an
independent research, advocacy and training organization. The views
expressed here are his own.

____________________________________

January 4, Independent (UK)
Burmese gloomy over election year prospects – Phoebe Kennedy

Winds of change are whistling through Asia's most entrenched military
dictatorship. Twenty years after the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's
democrats were cruelly cheated of power after winning a general election
by a landslide, Burma is to have another election some time in 2010.

After years in the deep freeze, relations with the US are thawing thanks
to President Barack Obama's new policy of engagement. And although Ms Suu
Kyi remains under house arrest, recent initiatives by the regime have
hinted at movement even there.

But for Burma's impoverished people, all of this is so much eyewash.
Violent crackdowns, mass arrests and crippling economic decline have
robbed them of hope. Ideas about democracy and freedom are a luxury they
cannot afford; the daily preoccupation is survival.

Min Zaw is 28. At his home in a rundown suburb of Rangoon, he makes
caramel puddings in little plastic pots and sells them wholesale to small
shops and street stalls.

"My life is all about small economic calculations. It's all I think
about," he said as he walked through the covered market on colonial
Rangoon's 18th Street to buy sugar. He will buy a big bag for a week and
haul it back home on the bus, together with cardboard trays of broken eggs
that he buys at a discount.

Mr Zaw aims to make a profit of 5,000 kyat (£3.10) per day, a handsome
wage in Burma where most people earn less than 60p, but that depends on
everything running smoothly. Electricity in Rangoon is rationed to five or
six hours a day and, if the power goes out at the wrong time, he may have
to run a costly generator. At the end of each month, as people wait for
their next pay packet, demand for his puddings tails off sharply. Some
days he makes nothing at all.

In 2007, recently out of university, Mr Zaw joined the democracy
demonstrations led by Burma's Buddhist monks and dreamed of an end to
military oppression and a brighter economic future. But the Saffron
Revolution was crushed by force and nearly broke his business.

"All the shops were closed. People were scared and quiet. I couldn't sell
anything," he recalled. "I am still interested in politics but I have to
earn money, so I can't get involved."

Burma's generals have held power since 1962 and built personal fortunes
from the sale of the country's abundant natural resources – oil, gas, teak
and gems. But their people are among Asia's poorest and cannot rely on
their rulers for anything. While the generals have spent billions on their
shiny new capital, Naypyidaw, spending on public healthcare accounts for a
miniscule 0.3 per cent of the national budget.

International attention remains focused on the plight of Ms Suu Kyi, the
64-year-old Nobel laureate and democracy icon. This week, Gordon Brown
sent her a new year message, praising her courage and selflessness. In his
letter, the British Prime Minister urged Burma's rulers to ensure that
elections were free and fair. But under a new constitution approved in
2008, the military would hold 25 per cent of seats in the new parliament
and would reserve the right to dissolve it.

As a result, many ordinary citizens have already dismissed the vote as a
sham, saying it will merely cement the power of the junta. Thu Zar, a
clerk at a government office in Rangoon, bows her head and giggles with
her friend when I ask her whether she thinks the elections will bring
change. She looks up, shaking her head slowly from side to side. "There
will not be any change," she says firmly.

For ordinary Burmese, Ms Suu Kyi has become an almost mythical symbol of
change. "[She] is important because we have no one else," says Ko Aung,
31, a university lecturer. "We want her to be free. We don't know if she
will give us more opportunities but apart from her we have no one, we have
nothing."