BurmaNet News, January 6, 2010

[Editor]

January 6, 2010, Issue #3870


INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Burmese government staff unhappy despite pay hike
Xinhua: Myanmar stops hundreds of tourist guides from operating services

ON THE BORDER
Asia Sentinel: Rapping at the Burmese junta
Bdnews24.com: Dhaka, Yangon to talk sea limits

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Inflation fears
DVB: Farmers sell livestock to repay loans

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: Australian Senator criticizes exports to Burma

OPINION / OTHER
The Nation (Thailand): Burmese junta already manipulating upcoming poll –
Editorial
DVB: Burma will struggle for attention in 2010 – Francis Wade



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 6, Mizzima News
Burmese government staff unhappy despite pay hike – Salai Han Thar San,
Kyaw Thein Kha

Essential and other commodity prices in Burma are rising after the
military junta announced an increase in pay of government employees and
daily wage earners.

A Ministry of Finance and Revenue staff member said that the monthly
salary of all government staff will be increased by a flat Kyat 20,000
(estimated USD 20) each, according to the Ministry’s Notification No.
184/2009 dated 31 December 2009.

The notification says, ‘the salary of government employees is increased
for the betterment of the livelihood of the staffs’.

A week after the pay hike announcement, 24 carat pure gold price rose by
Kyat 10,000. Yesterday’s price was Kyat 615,000 per tical (approx. 16 gm).

A grocery store owner in Bogale told Mizzima, “Commodity prices rose
especially after Independence Day on 4 January. Peanut edible oil price
rose to Kyat 3,500 from Kyat 3,200 per viss (approx. 3.6 lbs or 1.64 Kg).
Onion price rose to Kyat 750 from Kyat 650 per viss. Other provisions also
increased by Kyat 100 to 200”.

Some government staff members are unhappy despite a pay rise as they are
worried about rising prices of commodities.

An Insein hospital staff said, “I get just over Kyat 30,000 per month as
salary. I cannot cope with the expenses for my family that too without
kids at the current prices. I have to find extra sources of income to make
both ends meet. I would be content with the current salary if commodity
prices came down”.

Daily wage for those working at ministries and government organizations
were also increased to Kyat 1,000 per day from Kyat 500 for an 8-hour
workday. The new pay structure is only for basic pay and daily wages. The
increments of respective pay scales are unchanged.

For military personnel, the procedure and regulation for prescribed pay
scale, fringe benefits, pension and gratuity have to be presented to the
Defence Council under the Ministry of Defence for final approval.

Government staff members working in foreign missions and on foreign soil
have to draw their salary in foreign exchange on old pay scales. They will
get the new pay scale only when they are back in Burma.

Ko Moe Zaw, a rice seller in Bogale township in Irrawaddy delta that was
hard hit by cyclone Nargis in 2008, said “The price of rice rose this
week. The earlier price was Kyat 16,500 per bag (approx. 50 Kgs) of Paw
San Hmwe rice and the inferior quality rice was about Kyat 14,000 to
14,500 per bag. The current price of Paw San (good quality rice) is Kyat
18,000 per bag and the  inferior quality rice is Kyat 15,000 to 16,500 per
bag”.

The salary of government staff members were increased five times since the
current military regime assumed power in 1988. Pay increases were made in
1989, 1993, 2000, 2006 and 2010. This is the fifth increase under this
military regime.

____________________________________

January 6, Xinhua
Myanmar stops hundreds of tourist guides from operating services

Yangon – The Myanmar tourism authorities have revoked licenses of 385
tourist guides for their alleged failure to have their documents renewed
for up to a long period of three years after expiry.

According to Thursday's local weekly 7-Day News pre-published on
Wednesday, these tourist guides were in fact found to have left the
country since a drop of tourist arrivals in late 2007 or change to serve
in non-governmental organizations.

At a time when world travelers are picking up in 2009, there emerged
issues of shortage of skilled hotel staff as well as tourist guides who
speak foreign languages, tourism circle was quoted as saying.

The 385 de-registered tourist guides comprise most of the
English-language-proficient ones. The others are fluent with German,
Japanese and Chinese languages, the report said.

In late last year, Myanmar was urgently seeking more tourist guides to
receive world travelers especially in that peak tourism season through to
this year when tourist arrivals were increasing significantly, said the
Union of Myanmar Travel Association (UMTA).

There were nearly 5,000 registered tourist guides in the country, of which
over 60 percent are English speakers, according to the UMTA. Tourist
guides, who are fluent in Russian, French, German, Italian, Spanish, were
essential as travelers from these countries have increased during last
year.

According to figures for 2008, the number of English-speaking tourist
guides was leading with 3,093, followed by Japanese' with 598, French's
with 283, German's with 217, Chinese's with 214 and Thai's with 122.

Meanwhile, tourist arrivals through the Yangon International Airport
registered 111,044 in the first half of the present 2009- 10 fiscal year
ending in March, increasing over 20,000 compared with the same period of
the previous year, the latest figures show.

Travelers mostly came to Myanmar from Asian countries, North America and
East European countries.

The tourist arrivals once fell in 2008 especially in the months after
deadly cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar in early May of the year.

Myanmar has been striving for the revival of tourism industry amid hard
time when the country is in a process of rehabilitation after storm and
the global economy is experiencing a downturn.

To reach a target of bringing in 1 million foreign tourists in the present
2009-10, the ministry is making efforts to promote its international
tourism market in cooperation with international and domestic airlines,
tour operators and some travel agencies.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 6, Asia Sentinel
Rapping at the Burmese junta – Tom Spender

The chain-link gate slides open to reveal a group of young shaven-headed
Burmese men and two girls sitting outside a house in Mae Sot, a scruffy
town on the Thai side of the Thai-Burmese border.

All are members of Generation Wave, an underground group dedicated to
overthrowing the repressive military junta that has ruled Burma since
1962. The odds are against them, as they have been against a long series
of movements harboring in Mae Sot and Chiang Mai in Thailand. Nonetheless,
Generation Wave has a certain amount of panache, attempting to reach
Burma’s youth by using rap and hip hop music and graffiti to inspire
others to stand up to authority

"We've cut our hair Saffron style," said Aung Min, one of GW's founders,
referring to the failed Saffron Uprising in 2007, in which tens of
thousands took to the streets, led by Buddhist monks, only to have at
least 135 people and possibly more shot down by the military. "If
something happens in Burma we can go in there quickly and mingle with the
monks."

They are hoping against hope that 2010 could provide the first opportunity
since 2007 for widespread anti-government protest, with the junta’s plans
for an election which has been derided widely as a sham engineered to
prohibit any prominent opposition candidates from running.

"I don't see any big movement ahead of the elections. People will wait and
see. But if the election result angers the people then that could be the
first opportunity," said Win Min, a Burmese analyst based in Chiang Mai,
Thailand. "Groups like Generation Wave can't bring about change on their
own. But they do pose a eew kind of challenge to the junta and will be a
driving force once the opportunity does arrive."

Generation Wave grew out of the 2007 uprising. Marching with thousands of
others on the streets of Rangoon gave Aung Min and a few friends a whiff
of freedom that they were unwilling to let go of once the demonstrations
had been quelled.

"When I saw the marchers I thought, wow. I joined them and felt very
free," said Aung. "At that moment we felt we could change our regime. But
all we got was bullets. I thought no, I don't want this to end."

Inexperienced in political activism, Aung and his friends began by
publishing a statement asking people to stay indoors in support of the
monks. It was roundly ignored. They started spraying slogans on walls,
distributing leaflets and organizing demonstrations in Rangoon, which with
about five million residents is Myanmar's biggest city.

The group stayed one step ahead of the police by using a safe house and
communicating via mobile phones hired by the month from their owners for
about US$50. Mobile phone ownership is not widespread in Myanmar because
of the prohibitive cost and calls are liable to be listened to, but "they
can't listen to all the numbers at once," Aung Min said. The friends also
ran the gauntlet of the authorities' networks of informers, some of whom
pass information to the police in return for being allowed to continue
illicit activities such as running casinos or gambling operations based on
the Thai lottery.

But in March 2008 one of Generation Wave’s members was arrested. Aung Min
was lucky. He was travelling abroad with his job and after hearing of the
arrest made his way to the NLD office in Mae Sot. At Mae Sot, separated
from the Burmese town of Myawaddy by the Moei River, Burmese without
papers cross the porous border on inflatable rubber rings to buy cheaper
goods and access free medical and education programs run by NGOs.

Generation Wave was given the use of a house there from which it began
running training sessions, with young Burmese crossing the porous border
to attend talks on human rights, non-violent action and community
organizing. Every two months they launched a new campaign inside Burma,
targeting issues such as the government's inability to provide electricity
to its people.

"Most of the Burmese people know they are right to oppose the government
but they don't know their rights, so we need to tell them. Then they can
use their knowledge to persuade others inside Burma," said Aung Min.

As they have come to the attention of the authorities, more and more
Generation Wave members have been arrested. About 30 of its 100 members
have now been detained, Aung Min said. Membership is illegal and is
punishable by a jail term of up to five years, but in practice members
know they could be imprisoned indefinitely.

Now about 10 Generation Wave members are living in the Mae Sot safe house.
Their logo – a red spray-painted stencil of a fist with the thumb up – has
been spray-painted large on one of the external walls. Inside, a young man
watches a DVD about the the Solidarity movement in Poland while "I want to
make revolution songs," says 9KT, a rapper. "First I make a beat and a
bass loop. Then I write the lyrics. The people are suffering, they don't
have enough food. So we say, don't stay on the wrong side, stand up for
your rights."

9KT and another rapper, AK, have just put together a Generation Wave
compilation CD that members crossing the River Moei back into Burma will
distribute to their friends. The CD features song titles such as "Let's
Get Up" and "Please excuse, Ma," in which the rappers apologize to their
mothers for becoming involved with politics, a dangerous game in Burma.

"This way we can get young people interested. These songs are not
necessarily explicitly political. They are accessible and our message can
be easily understood," said 9KT. Thus, by riding popular youth culture,
Generation Wave hopes to inspire young Burmese to similar activism.

"We need to be a source of admiration for young people, so they will want
to do the same thing in our style, with the belief they can kick out the
regime and make a revolution," said Aung Min.

The group's distinctive style does attract new members despite the risks.

"I was with another group and came here for leadership training. I stayed
with GW because it was made up of young people and the style is freer,"
said Aung Nge, a skinny 24-year-old from the Pa-O minority in Myanmar's
Shan State.

Aung Nge helps out by monitoring the media in Myanmar and hopes one day to
set up an NGO to help some of the estimated 240,000 Burmese who have HIV
or AIDS.

Generation Wave has a few rules – only Burmese who live in Burma are
accepted as members. They must be prepared to be active and they must be
between the ages of 17 and 35 years.

"When we are old, we tell children not to play with fire because they will
get burned. But maybe we need to play with fire. That's why we have the
age limit," said Aung Min, who is 28.

Also living in the Mae Sot house are Ko Lin, a 33-year-old from Bago, near
Rangoon, whose ambition is to write about social issues "without the need
for a censor", and a 28-year-old who gives his name as 2P, the name of a
famous Burmese cartoon character, an unlucky hunter. 2P recently spent
three months in prison after hurling a stone at government men who were
driving through his town shouting at residents through a megaphone to give
their approval to the new constitution, part of the preparations for next
year's elections.

"I saw these guys singing about a vote with a tick and I didn't like it,"
said 2P, smiling broadly. "I had to do something. I threw the stone at the
car, it bounced off the wing mirror and hit the announcer and then I
thought I would flee by motorbike but they caught me. They were very
angry."

Generation Wave is nonpolitical, but it supports Aung San Suu Kyi as the
democratically-elected leader of Myanmar and her portrait hangs in the Mae
Sot house. However, despite the example of Daw Aung, or The Lady as she is
popularly known, women don't play much of a role in Burmese political life
and there are only a handful of girls in Generation Wave.

"Most Burmese women don't feel they are like Aung San Suu Kyi because
she's the daughter of our independence hero and so it was easy for her to
go into politics," said Aung Min's girlfriend Ei Ei, a petite 28-year-old.
"But it's true that we women need to open our minds. We shouldn't be so
shy and we should think politically. Women need to be more brave, we
should have more self-belief."

Wai Wai, 27, was more self-assured. A former work colleague of Aung Min's,
she quit her job after the Saffron uprising in order to get more involved.
"I want a peaceful country to live in with a good economy so there is no
need to go to another country, like Thailand, where life is tough. I want
to be able to live a quiet life in Burma," she said.

Both Aung Min and Win Min say dialogue between the US and Burma's generals
is a good thing.

"It's better than using just one approach," said Win Min. "But it's all up
to [Burma's 'Senior General'] Than Shwe, if he is willing to compromise to
have sanctions lifted, for example by holding free and fair elections. But
I don't see any sign of that."

Meanwhile, as night fell at the GW safe house, Aung Min said his group
hoped for some kind of positive change in Burma in the next three years.

"We would like to get our normal life, therefore we need to change
things," he said. "We want to go back to Burma, therefore we need to
fight."

(All of the names given by Generation Wave members for this article are
aliases)

____________________________________

January 6, Bdnews24.com
Dhaka, Yangon to talk sea limits

Bangladesh and Myanmar officials will sit on Friday for two-day talks on
maritime boundary demarcation.

This is first such meeting since Bangladesh in October last year turned to
the UN tribunal for resolving the dispute over water territory in the Bay
of Bengal with Myanmar and India.

Myanmar deputy foreign minister (foreign secretary) Maung Myint will lead
his country's delegation while additional foreign secretary Md Khurshed
Alam will head Bangladesh side at the talks in Chittagong.

"The bilateral negotiation with our neighbours will continue though we
have gone to the UN tribunal for settling the maritime disputes," a senior
foreign ministry official told bdnews24.com.

He said Myanmar now shows "very positive" attitude to resolve the maritime
disputes with Bangladesh.

Foreign ministry officials say Bangladesh, India and Myanmar cannot
exploit the full benefits of their oil and gas reserves in the Bay due to
claim and counter-claim of the offshore blocks.

Out of Bangladesh's total 27, Myanmar and India have made overlapping
claims over at least 18 offshore blocks in the complicated maritime
geography.

Indian and Myanmar claim, what foreign minister termed as "aggressive",
that those would make block Bangladesh's sea zone.

Bangladesh and Myanmar resumed talks on maritime boundary demarcation in
2008 after a pause of 22 years. The two countries had at least three
rounds of talks on the issue since then and the talks yielded no tangible
result.

The two countries could not even agree on determining the starting point
of the boundary demarcation.

On Oct 8 last year, Bangladesh appealed to the UN tribunal for arbitration
to end the maritime boundary disputes with Myanmar and India.

Foreign minister Dipu Moni on Oct 8 said the government approached to the
UN tribunal to end the disputes as soon as possible.

She said the disputes would be resolved at the tribunal in maximum four
years if Bangladesh could not bury the disputes through bilateral talks.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

January 6, Irrawaddy
Inflation fears

An apparent rush by members of the Burmese junta and their families to buy
gold is being named as the cause of a sudden rise in the price of the
precious metal in Burma.

The gold price increase comes as reports circulate that civil servants are
to be awarded a salary increase of 20,000 kyat (US$20) a month, and it's
felt in some quarters that many junta members are investing in gold as a
hedge against inflation.

Trade in gold was slack until Dec. 29, in line with trends on the
international market. But at the end of the year and in the early days of
2010 gold shops reported a boom in business.

In that time, the gold price increased from 594,000 kyat ($594) a tical
(16.4 grams) to 598,500 kyat ($598.5), peaking on Jan. 5 at 602,100 kyat
($602.1). On Wednesday, the price stood at 599,800 kyat ($599.8).

A Mandalay dealer said buyers were predominantly families of military and 
police personnel and civil servants.

A Rangoon dealer said one family had bought 3 vis (nearly 5 kilograms) of
gold at his shop on Dec. 31.

Dealers close to the deputy chairman of the Myanmar [Burma] Gold Traders
Association, Kyaw Myint, said the families of high rank officials knew
early on that salaries were to be increased. “They are worried about
inflation, so they buy gold in order to invest in the precious metal.”

Traditionally, the Burmese military regime has blamed dealers whenever the
gold price increases. Dealers are often ordered to stop trading in order
to keep the price stable.

A Mandalay dealer said: “The regime always blame us whenever the price
goes high, while the the real cause lies with themselves.”

Sources say that the Myanmar (Burma) Gold Traders Association might call a
meeting with gold dealers in Mandalay if the gold price continues to rise.

____________________________________

January 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Farmers sell livestock to repay loans – Naw Say Phaw

Farmers in central Burma forced to repay loans months in advance of their
deadline have reportedly been selling off livestock, following threats of
arrest.

The debts stem from fertilizer bought on credit from local authorities in
Magwe division.
Authorities had reportedly given an eight-month deadline on repayment, but
have demanded the money after four months.

The situation has been compounded by last year’s poor crop harvest, with
farmers failing to make any significant profit.

Furthermore, the fertilizer was forced on the farmers at an elevated
price, one farmer from Myo Thit town in Magwe division said.

“The farmers didn’t want to buy fertilizer [from the authorities] as they
were selling it at 20,000 kyat ($US20) per barrel when the market price is
13,000 kyat ($US13),” he said.

He added that the local township chairman had ordered the arrest of seven
farmers in Theebin village if they could not pay the money back by 7
January, and that famers were now being forced to sell their cows to repay
their debt.

Meanwhile, farmers in Magwe’s Yaynanchaung township said that local
authorities were also forcing them to buy fertilizer at inflated prices,
despite crops having already been planted.

“[Authorities here] are forcing farmers to buy out-of-date fertilizer
after crop planting season,” one farmer said. “They said our lands will no
longer be ours if we don’t buy.”

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 6, Irrawaddy
Australian Senator criticizes exports to Burma – Arkar Moe

A senator from the Australian Greens party has called on an Australian
company to stop selling high-frequency radio sets to Burma's military
junta, saying they are being used by the regime in its operations against
ethnic minorities.

Sen. Scott Ludlam of Western Australia said radios sold by Barrett
Communications are capable of frequency-hopping and encryption, making
radio traffic impossible to intercept. He said this assists the Burmese
military in its campaigns against ethnic armed groups and that the exports
must be stopped.

“We don't believe there should be two-way trade between Australia and
Burma at all 
 but there certainly shouldn't be two-way trade in sensitive
military equipment such as this,” he said in an interview with Radio
Australia.

“The Burmese regime is a criminal regime, it's entirely illegitimate and
it is very inappropriate for Australian companies to be doing business
with that regime," he added.

Australia has long enforced an embargo on the delivery of arms to Burma,
and financial sanctions were added in 2007.

Dr Myint Cho, a spokesperson from Burma Campaign Australia (BCA), told The
Irrawaddy on Wednesday that the group was preparing to petition the
Australian government to end sales of the radios to the Burmese junta.

“We are now preparing to send a message to the prime minister. We are also
collecting signatures from democracy supporters,” he said, noting that
Burma's pro-democracy movement enjoys strong support in Australia.

“The  Australian government has imposed sanctions on 463 Burmese generals
and their associates, including visa restrictions and financial
sanctions,” he said.

On its Web site, BCA has launched a “Don't Deal with Burma” campaign,
calling on Australian companies not to help fund Burma’s military
dictatorship and its systematic human rights abuses.

On Tuesday, The Sydney Morning Herald reported that Burma's armed forces
are using Australian radio technology despite a Canberra arms embargo.

Perth-based company Barrett Communications Pty Ltd confirmed that it had
sold 50 radio sets to Burma, but denied that they were being used by the
country's military.

Barrett's managing director, Phil Bradshaw, said on Monday his company had
been supplying the civilian-model 2050 radios to Burma for some time
through a local agent, with the approval of customs authorities vetting
exports for conformity with sanctions against the military regime.

However, in a media release on Tuesday, BCA spokesperson Zetty Brake
dismissed this, saying “Burma’s economy is controlled by the military
dictatorship and the argument companies like Barrett Communications use
they are only dealing with private companies or government ministries are
both naive and untrue.”

“The Australian government needs to ensure the Burmese military junta is
not using civilian fronts to purchase high-tech equipment that can be used
by the military,” she said. “Australia needs to strengthen its arms
embargo to ensure that equipment that has military capabilities is not
being sold to Burma.”

The group also targets a number of other Australian companies with
business interests in Burma, including Andaman Teak Supplies Pty Ltd and
tour operators Gecko’s Adventure and Sr Asia Tourism. Jetstar Asia, an
offshoot of Qantas' Jetstar Airways, and travel guide publisher Lonely
Planet are among others that have been singled out.

Fashion retailer Millers and oil companies Twinza Oil and US-based
Chevron, which has an Australian affiliate, have also come under fire for
their dealings with the Burmese regime.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 6, The Nation (Thailand)
Burmese junta already manipulating upcoming poll – Editorial

Burma's strongman, General Than Shwe, was more than happy to confirm that
there will be an election in his country this year. The problem is, and
will remain for the foreseeable future, the lack of a clear timeline for
when the election will be held. Furthermore, none of the necessary laws
and measures to make the upcoming poll transparent, free and fair have not
been enacted.

The US State Department has made these points clearly, saying: "We have
not seen any meaningful steps by the regime to indicate it is putting in
place measures that would lead to credible elections. Much of the
opposition's leadership remains in prison, there is no space for political
dissent or debate, and no freedom of the press. We continue to urge the
Burmese government to address these issues and to engage [the main
opposition leader] Aung San Suu Kyi and the democratic opposition, ethnic
leaders and other stakeholders in a comprehensive dialogue on democratic
reform. This would be a first step towards inclusive elections."

Despite such a strong international appeal, the military regime is still
stubborn. Obviously, the junta wants to ensure victory in the election
because it would be disastrous if it loses again. In May 1990, the junta
cheated in the polls and won by a supposed landslide against the
opposition National League for Democracy, led by Suu Kyi. So, the regime
will not make the same mistakes again.

The reason for keeping a tight rein over the election date is purely
tactical. The announcement will be made when the junta's handpicked
cronies are ready to enter the race. The suspicion is that the election
could be held late in the second half of the year, toward the third
quarter. The contracts that international humanitarian and relief
organisations have with the regime will end in June this year. Renewal of
these contracts is not expected. It would take a few weeks for all of
their representatives to leave the country. And this is what the junta
wants. To hold an election under the watchful eyes of foreign
representatives would be a catastrophe.

The regime wants to transform the international relief efforts into votes
for it or its surrogates, especially in the area of the Irrawaddy Delta,
which was hard-hit by Cyclone Nargis in May 2008. This will not be easy,
as these Burmese villagers are now more independent in helping themselves,
with some direct assistance from abroad. The role of the burgeoning
village-based civil groups, although they are still nascent, could be
influential in determining the future of the Burmese junta. The regime is
monitoring the activities of local community leaders to prevent any
upheaval in the future.

The regime also wants to use the timing to disarm the opposition,
including minority groups that have adopted plans to contest the poll. The
National League for Democracy, for example, has complained that its
representatives are not allowed to hold meetings. Suu Kyi informed top US
diplomats of her political plight when they visited her in early November
last year.

The regime must come clean on the election. The US and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, of which Burma is a member, have called for an
inclusive election that will allow all stakeholders to partake in the
political process. So far, the regime has been evasive in its response.
It's the same old story of tactical delays.

Of course, after the election there could be dire consequences. After all,
everybody can read the tea-leaves. The generals will likely behave as
despicably as they always have, closing all loopholes that might
jeopardise them in any way. The outcome could affect the Burmese people as
never before. If there is obvious rigging of results, the people might not
accept the outcome, and that could lead to the same kind of chaos as in
1988 and 1990. The people have been pushed too far already.
____________________________________

January 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma will struggle for attention in 2010 – Francis Wade

The extent of Burma’s “boutique” attraction for the international
community will be tested this year as the opposition vies for attention
amidst a horde of other, equally controversial, elections.

Joining Burma in polling this year will be a smorgasbord of countries that
have hogged the world’s spotlight for the past decade, and which have
proved perhaps more thorny for both the UN and the self-professed leading
exporter of democracy, the United States. The effect could be that
elections in Burma, long the cause célèbre for film stars and First
Ladies, but denied any real emphatic action from world leaders, will be
submerged by more pressing priorities.

Sudan is due to cast ballots in February this year, while Iraq will follow
in March. Both countries present serious concerns for the international
community: Khartoum’s electoral timetable is overshadowed by the
International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for President Omar
al-Bashir, the first sitting head of state to be indicted by the ICC,
while Iraq will require full US attention as calls for Washington to clean
up and get out gather in momentum. President Obama, who rode into office
on the promise of conjuring stability from the Baghdad rubble, cannot
afford a repeat of the US-backed Afghanistan elections last year, which
continue to be mired in accusations of corruption.

In three weeks, Sri Lanka will hold its first presidential elections since
2005, with the fallout of the government’s final offensive against the
rebel Tamil Tigers in March 2009 still scarring the landscape there. The
incumbent, Mahinda Rajapaksa, will contest the elections against former
army commander, General Sarath Fonseka, both of whom the UN has said may
have violated international criminal law during the Tamil offensive.

The Venezuelan legislative elections in September will be closely
monitored by the US for any opportunity to pounce on and weaken the grip
of President Chavez, while Ukraine will vote later this month for the
first time since 2004, and the subsequent, and now infamous, Orange
Revolution that exploded following controversy over the results.

Elsewhere a tide of change may be sweeping across Africa, particularly in
the conflict-ravaged Great Lakes, where Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania will
also head to the ballot box. The May elections in Ethiopia will serve as
an acid test for Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, whose previous inauguration
into office in 2005 was followed by protests in which nearly 200 people
were killed.
Thus Burma’s position this year on the priority list is perhaps more
tenuous than one might think. It would appear that the ruling junta has
picked its election year wisely, comforted by the prospect that the
attention that really matters could be focused elsewhere. Moreover,
details of the elections have been sufficiently vague so as to render
preparation, both by international diplomats and media, not to mention the
opposition inside Burma, an exhausting and frustrating task.

It is sobering to contrast the importance of Burma for the two major
diplomatic powers, the US and UN, against the multitude of other major
political events this year. While the US needs a government in Burma that
will block the encroachment of China, this danger is less immediate that
the potential fallout of yet another disaster in Iraq, particularly given
the fragile platform Obama now stands on. Burma has been labeled a
“boutique issue” for the US when weighed against the global ramifications
of a nuclear North Korea or Iran, a sweeping anti-US ‘pink’ tide across
Latin America, or further fissuring of the Middle East.

Similarly, the UN will forever be haunted by its impotence during the
Darfur conflict in Sudan, not to mention the Rwandan genocide, and will
need to concentrate its efforts on removing the prospect of continuing
bloodshed there. Pressure on the UN to channel energy towards Burma this
year will be comparatively weak given the adeptness of the junta, unlike
al-Bashir, at hiding much of the continuing atrocities from the world’s
eyes.

Ironically, the ongoing international outrage at opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi’s sentencing last year could be the one beacon of hope for the
secretive, pariah state, such is the continued draw and idolatry of the
64-year-old. Any infringement on her catapults Burma onto the world stage,
but the words of kindness from world leaders hide a limp reluctance to
really intervene, and do little to advance her cause. The inability of the
West to really engage and invest in the Burma crisis may speak volumes for
any hope of change in the coming elections.