BurmaNet News, April 30, 2010

[Editor]

April 30, 2010, Issue #3952

INSIDE BURMA
WSJ: Myanmar officials maneuver ahead of vote
Irrawaddy: PM's party registration may violate law
Mizzima News: Social work to go on without party’s name, NLD says
KNG: KIO meets junta officials; rejects BGF yet again
Reuters: Funding shortfalls hurt Cyclone Nargis recovery efforts in Myanmar
DVB: Suu Kyi’s house plan approved
SHAN: Burma army reported attacked by ceasefire Shan Army

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: PLA deploys more troops at Burma border
DVB: Beggar children held in Malaysian camp

BUSINESS / TRADE
Mizzima News: ‘Bomb scares’ spur 80pc drop in trade fair turnout
Myanmar Times: China FDI climbs by just $15m

DRUGS
Irrawaddy: Three dead in drugs clash

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima News: Burma still among worst states for press freedom: report
Index on Censorship/IFEX: Index on Censorship rallies campaigners in
support of imprisoned comedian

OPINION / OTHER
Strategy Page: The Bombs of Spring
Asia Times: Myanmar ceasefires on a tripwire - Brian McCartan
The Economist: The paucity of hope; Myanmar's evil junta

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

April 30, Wall Street Journal
Myanmar officials maneuver ahead of vote

Top Myanmar officials resigned from their military posts this week and
created their own political party in a likely bid to contest upcoming
elections later this year, raising new skepticism about the prospects for
a valid vote.

Analysts said the move by Prime Minister Thein Sein and 22 other officials
to resign their military titles appears designed to circumvent a 25% quota
on the number of parliamentary seats members of the military will hold,
enabling them to maintain their grip on power in this resource-rich but
secretive nation of 48 million people. If more senior military leaders
shed their uniforms to run as civilians, they could lock up far more
seats.

The demilitarization of Myanmar's top leadership merely represents "a more
sophisticated form of oppression," says David Mathieson, a researcher at
Human Rights Watch in Thailand. The Myanmar regime in recent years has
been accused of a wide range of human rights abuses, including the
imprisonment of more than 2,000 political opponents.

Attempts to reach the Myanmar government, which rarely speaks to foreign
journalists, were unsuccessful. The country's senior-most military leader,
Than Shwe, has in the past said the vote will be fair.

The Myanmar government has yet to announce a date for the elections.

Mr. Thein Sein and the other officers resigned from the military on
Monday, according to state media reports, though they are expected to keep
their cabinet posts. On Thursday, he and 26 other officials applied to
register a political group called the Union Solidarity and Development
Party.

When Myanmar last held a national election, in 1990, opposition groups led
by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi easily won. But the military regime,
which has ruled since 1962, ignored the result and has kept Ms. Suu Kyi
under house arrest much of the time since then. Her party, the National
League for Democracy, recently vowed to boycott the newest vote.

Some analysts have argued the new election—which they say was designed at
least in part to boost the legitimacy of the current regime—could at least
open the door for opposition groups to gain a bit more say in the way
Myanmar is run. More than 20 new political parties have applied to
participate, including some led by opposition figures, and it is widely
hoped that at least some of them could win seats in the new government.
Myanmar would have 440 parliamentary seats in the new parliament.

Analysts speculate that the regime's efforts to promote the creation of
civilian parties could lead to more accountability among top military
leaders, some of whom will theoretically have to compete for public favor
in order to remain in office. But it's unclear if the government will
allow international observers to ensure the voting is free and fair, and
the latest moves suggest some current leaders may not intend to retire and
hand over the reins to younger leaders as some residents had hoped.

Tensions are clearly rising in the country. At least seven bomb blasts
have been reported in recent weeks, including an attack at a public park
in Yangon on April 15 that killed eight or more people. It is unknown who
orchestrated the latest attacks—which have also included smaller blasts at
a hydropower project site—or whether they are related.

Anxieties are also running high in border areas with Thailand and China,
where ethnic minority groups control vast swathes of territory and
continue to grapple with the government over a controversial plan to
reduce their autonomy before the elections.

Military leaders are demanding that the ethnic groups convert their
soldiers into "border guards" under the leadership of the Myanmar army
before participating in the vote. A deadline for acceptance of the deal
passed on Wednesday, with many still refusing to participate. That has
left many Myanmar residents to conclude violent conflicts are imminent as
the government positions more troops in border areas.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703871904575215644045235292.html?mod=fox_australian

____________________________________

April 30, Irrawaddy
PM's party registration may violate law - Kyaw Thein Kha

Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein and his government colleagues who formed
the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) on Thursday may be in
violation of junta election laws stating that persons forming a political
party may not hold government positions.

Article 4 of the Political Party Registration Law says that a person who
forms a political party must not hold a government position.

State-run radio and television reported on Thursday that the USDP had been
organized by 27 government officials, including Prime Minister Thein Sein
and Rangoon mayor Aung Thein Lin, and had registered with the Union
Election Commission (UEC).

On Monday, Burma's military establishment ordered Thein Sein, Aung Thein
Lin and 20 other senior officials to retire from their military positions.

On Friday, however, state-run newspapers still described Thein Sein and
the others forming the USDP as government officials, and their were no
reports of resignations from government positions by any USDP official.

Aye Lwin, the chairman of the Union of Myanmar Federation of National
Politics, one of 25 political parties currently registered and one of 12
currently approved by the UEC, spoke about the apparent violation of the
junta's election laws by the junta-backed USDP.

“When we first registered at the election commission, we had to sign a
document saying we were not holding a position in government. I think
Thein Shein and the other government officials who formed the USDP also
had to sign this document,” said Aye Lwin.
“The State Peace and Development Council published the election laws, so
the USDP officials would know the laws well at the time they registered.
And they would certainly know that the position of prime minister is a
government position,” he said.

The junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),
founded in 1993 as a social organization, claims to have a membership of
about 24 million, including students, civil servants and military
personnel. Although it claims to be apolitical, the USDA has long been
actively involved in implementing the ruling regime’s policies.

Thu Wai, the chairman of the Democratic Party (Myanmar), criticized the
decision of government officials to form a political party closely linked
with the USDA.

“It is not right to use the USDA name. The minister of home affairs once
said that the USDA will be a social organization. If it transforms into a
political party, all its members have to quit the organization. I intend
to discuss this with the election commission.”

Minister of Home Affairs Maj-Gen Maung Oo did, however, signal the
regime’s plans for the USDA when he said in 2002 that the organization
must be able to play a role in politics alongside other political parties.

Win Tin, one of the leaders of the National League for Democracy, which
has announced it will not register for the election, says the decision of
Thein Sein and the other generals to form the USDP has altered the
political landscape.

He told the Irrawaddy on Friday, “I expected that the army would only take
a 25 percent position in parliament, in accordance with the 2008
constitution. But the situation is now different from what I expected. The
military-led USDP is going to contest the election, which means they
intend to transform the army into a political party.”

____________________________________

April 30, Mizzima News
Social work to go on without party’s name, NLD says - Myint Maung

The main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, will carry
out social work among the people by officially registered with the
authority concerned, but not in the party’s name, the party’s
vice-chairman says.

National League for Democracy (NLD) vice-chairman Tin Oo told Mizzima the
group would avoid using any name containing “NLD”.
“We won’t take names like Social Aid Group NLD or Legal Aid Group NLD. If
we took such names 
 the authority concerned would not accept
[registration] by accusing us of conducting party activities under these
names. It would be against the law,” he said.

The party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) meeting held at party
headquarters in Bahan Township today passed the resolution. It was
attended by all members except party general secretary Aung San Suu Kyi,
who is under house arrest, and other sick members, chairman Aung Shwe and
secretary U Lwin. Committee member Lun Tin was also absent.

“We need to be registered under the existing ‘Associations Act’ in Burma 

Even if we cannot register our work, we shall continue our work based on
our own spirit and will”, Tin Oo said.

NLD party has decided pulled out of the elections and said it would start
social work after May 6 when the party expires as a legal entity under the
new electoral laws.

But members at the CEC meeting on Monday had failed to reach a decision on
whether the party’s name would be used in future party social work.

Besides continuing social work assisting families of political prisoners,
caring for HIV/Aids patients and providing legal aid for the redress of
grievances; the party would assist other democratic forces, the party
decided.

The party also decided to issue guiding directives to all party branches
in States and Divisions on the party’s stance.

“We instructed our party states and division branches against voluntarily
lowering our party flags and removing party signboards. And we told them
to pack our belongings and destroy unnecessary party documents, to keep
all financial accounts according to law and to settle all accounts before
the expiry date,” Tin Oo said. “We also instructed them to settle [all
matters] with the landlords of our party offices in a peaceful manner in
accordance with local conditions at each and every branch.”

There are more than 300 party branches in states, divisions and townships
across Burma.

____________________________________

April 30, Kachin News Group
KIO meets junta officials; rejects BGF yet again

At the 17th meeting between Burmese junta brass and ethnic Kachin leaders,
concluded yesterday, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) made it
clear it will not accept the Border Guard Force.

The meeting came at the end of the third deadline for transforming Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), the armed-wing of KIO to the Burmese
Army-controlled BGF in Kachin State, northern Burma.

At the two-day meeting on the BGF faceoff, the two sides met in the
Northern Regional Command in Myitkyina, capital of Kachin State, said KIO
officials in Laiza headquarters east of Kachin State, near the China
border.

The KIO delegates led by Chairman Lanyaw Zawng Hra told junta leaders that
it would like to continue with the ceasefire and work for a genuine
federal union with equal rights between majority and minorities in the
country.

Two senior KIO/A officers--- Lt-Gen Gauri Zau Seng, Vice-President No. 1
and Brig-Gen Sumlut Gun Maw, Vice-Chief of Staff of KIA skipped the
meeting, said KIO officers.

This was the second meeting, where the junta realized that the KIO will
not accept the BGF. The KIO’s decision was arrived at after a press
conference on the BGF standoff on April 16 in Laiza headquarters.

In what was unusual the BGF meeting was attended by two ethnic Shan
military officers --- Brig-Gen Thein Zaw, Minister for Telegraph, Post and
Communications and Maj-Gen Lun Maung, Auditor-General of the junta from
Naypyitaw, along with Maj-Gen Soe Win, commander of the Northern Regional
Command and U Aung Thaung, Minister of Industry-1.

The three junta officials except Commander Soe Win, who was born in Kachin
State--- Brig-Gen Thein Zaw is from Waingmaw Township and Maj-Gen Lun
Maung is from Bhamo. Both are ethnic Shans whereas U Aung Thaung was also
born in Mohnyin, Kachin State, said sources close to them.

On the orders of the junta supremo Snr-Gen Than Shwe, the four military
officers spoke to the people in Kachin State during their election
campaign and threatened to eliminate the KIO/A if it rejects the BGF. The
KIO/A ignored the threat.

A KIO official in Laiza criticized the Burman-led military junta of trying
to drive a wedge between ethnic Kachin and Shan by using Kachin state-born
Shan officials.

The junta set three deadlines - on October 31 last year, February 28 and
April 28 for transforming all ethnic ceasefire groups in the country to
the BGF. However, Kachin, Mon, Shan and Wa have rejected the proposal.

____________________________________

April 30, Reuters
Funding shortfalls hurt Cyclone Nargis recovery efforts in Myanmar

Severe shortfalls in funding are curtailing recovery efforts in Myanmar's
Irrawaddy Delta, which was worst hit when Cyclone Nargis battered the
country in 2008 leaving 140,000 dead, aid agencies said on the eve of the
disaster's second anniversary.

The cyclone, which was the worst natural disaster to hit Asia since the
2004 tsunami, left 2.4 million people destitute in the army-ruled former
Burma. It flooded paddy fields with salt water, damaged irrigation systems
and destroyed seeds.

Despite the widespread damage done to the delta which is considered
Myanmar's rice bowl, the latest U.N. figures show that a three-year $690
million recovery plan launched at the start of 2009 is only 25 percent
funded.

"The consequence of insufficient funding is that there are serious unmet
needs for more sustainable shelter and agricultural support," Bishow
Parajuli, the United Nations' resident coordinator in Myanmar, told
AlertNet.

"Programmes have been scaled back, cut or cancelled and staff numbers have
been reduced. And the recovery process has slowed down," he added.

The funding crunch is also being felt by established aid agencies such as
Save the Children and the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration
(IOM). And insiders say the lack of funds has prompted many
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to leave the delta and means that
the recovery period will take much longer than the three years originally
anticipated.

Save the Children's country director in Myanmar, Andrew Kirkwood, told
AlertNet the agency has shut six of its 14 offices in the delta and halved
the number of staff in the area from 1,200 to 600.

Yet recovery is already uneven.

Kirkwood said although there had been some improvements in the former
capital Yangon, commercial centres and small towns of the delta, a large
number of survivors, especially landless labourers, are facing a grim
time.

"They have not been able to replace assets needed to make a living.
Farmers are not making enough money farming paddy so they're reducing
their input including labour," Kirkwood said.

"We have lots of evidence to say people are sharing jobs that used to be
their own. And many people have taken on a lot of extra debt to get them
through the past two years."

SHELTER TROUBLES

IOM is appealing for $12.5 million to provide shelters for an additional
50,000 households who are living in poor housing conditions, according to
Dr. William Sabandar, the secretary general of regional bloc ASEAN's
special envoy for post-Nargis recovery in Myanmar.

"If the appeal is not met, IOM will be forced to close down their
operations in the delta," he told AlertNet.

Only 12 percent or less than $22 million of the $176 million needed for
shelter over a three-year period, has been received, Srinivasa Popuri,
head of the U.N. housing agency UN-Habitat in Myanmar, told AlertNet.

This has left around 800,000 survivors or 160,000 families in 11 townships
facing a third monsoon without a proper roof over their heads.

Shelter has consistently been one of the least funded areas, mainly due to
perception that housing is the government's responsibility and many donors
do not want to be seen as supporting the junta. Aid agencies said they are
frustrated with aid being politicised this way.

Popuri said in the aftermath of Nargis, the shelter sector had about 45
NGOs working in it. However, only six of these NGOs continue to operate in
the delta, and by May, only three will remain active, he added.

"The reason for many agencies to close their shelter operations is purely
due to lack of resources and not any restrictions on them by the
government," Popuri said.

Alasdair Gordon-Gibson, head of operations in Myanmar for the
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies said
there might be a lack of understanding of the shelter needs in Myanmar,
which are different to those in the aftermath of the Asian tsunami.

Rather than huge municipal infrastructure reconstruction projects, the
focus in Myanmar is on family households and simple, basic, sustainable
shelter for them, he said.
The Red Cross said it is currently the biggest shelter provider with its
plans to build 16,000 shelters by the end of 2010 fully funded.

Another pressing problem is access to clean water.

Around 180,000 people face severe water shortages. Access to drinking
water in the delta during the dry season is a chronic problem, according
to World Vision.

Cyclone Nargis left ponds and wells contaminated with salt water, human
and animal corpses and all sorts of debris.

The water sources have to be pumped, treated, the foundations rebuilt and
it could take up to five years before they meet World Health Organisation
standards on safe
drinking water, WV's Jenny Macintyre said.

"There is a need to fund rehabilitation," she said. "Good practice in
donor-ship is to give people back the livelihoods they had before the
disaster, and if you do that, then you have a community that can reclaim
their dignity."

____________________________________

April 30, Democratic Voice of Burma
Suu Kyi’s house plan approved

Rangoon municipal authorities have given the go-ahead for renovations on
the house-cum-prison of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Her lawyer, Nyan Win, said that Suu Kyi’s representative, Htin Kyaw, was
informed by the municipal department yesterday morning that the renovation
had been approved.

He said that lawyers had requested a meeting with authorities to discuss
the renovation. Suu Kyi’s estranged brother, Aung San Oo, had claimed
part-ownership of the house, which was handed down from their mother, Daw
Khin Gyi, and tried to block the work, but courts threw out his case.

Judges argued that his status as a US citizen made it illegal for him to
own property in Burma.

“We sent a letter to the police’s Special Intelligence Department calling
for a meeting between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, her lawyers and the architects
regarding the house renovation,” said Nyan Win.

Work had already begun on the house last year after US citizen John Yettaw
managed to enter her property after swimming across Inya lake. The work,
aimed at boosting the security of the house, was temporarily delayed in
December however after the intervention by Suu Kyi’s brother.

Her estranged cousin, Khin Maung Aye, had earlier last year also lodged a
claim to ownership of the property. There had been speculation that the
retired army officer would sell the plot of land to government cronies,
although nothing came of it.

Suu Kyi has been kept under house arrest in the property along Rangoon’s
University Avenue for 14 of the past 20 years. Her house arrest conditions
mean that visits from anyone other than her lawyers and doctor are
prohibited.

____________________________________

April 30, Shan Herald Agency for News
Burma Army reported attacked by ceasefire Shan Army - Hseng Khio Fah

A Burma Army unit was reportedly attacked by an unknown group yesterday 29
April, killing one and wounding one while it was on the way to reinforce
troops in Shan State North’s Tangyan Township, west of the United Wa State
Army (UWSA) controlled territory, according to sources from the Sino-Burma
border.

The incident took place at 12:30 between Hoya village tract and Loi Ngeun
(Silver Mountain), that forms the northern border of the Shan State Army
(SSA) ‘North’’s Brigade No.1 controlled areas and south of the junta-back
Manpang militia force controlled areas. The unit was identified as Light
Infantry Battalion (LIB) # 326 based in Tangyan.

The SSA liaison officer in Lashio was summoned to meet the commander of
the Northeastern Region Command on that day as soon as the incident was
reported. The officer was told by the commander to inform his group to
take responsibility for the incident. If the group refused to, it would
face a military operation.

“It is obvious that they blame us because we have yet to accept its
program as its wants,” said a senior officer from the First Brigade. “But
the First Brigade’s policy doesn’t allow fighters to shoot first unless
they are attacked.”

According to him, the incident was the LIB# 326’s own doing. “We learned
that the M79 rocket launcher was accidentally fired by a soldier. The
Burma Army commander was seizing this opportunity to make war on us.”

The SSA-N has 3 brigades (1, 3, 7), one border force and one HQ Security
Force commanded by Maj-Gen Loimao. Brigade No. 3 and 7 were said to have
submitted lists of their men and weapons to form the junta run home guard
force. The First however has remained silent to the program up to this
day.

A senior officer from the anti-Naypyitaw Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’
commented that the Brigade No. 1 is in a dilemma. “For one thing, the
brigade is still emotionally attached to its comrades in the other units.
For another, it is not sure it could really rely on its allies. It is also
afraid that joining the SSA South will push it into a premature war with
the Burma Army.”

Nevertheless, the SSA North said it has yet to agree to transform itself
to become home guards. It had only submitted lists of their men who agreed
to become members of a home guard force to be formed under the Burma
Army’s supervision.

The deadline for ceasefire groups to become militias expired on 28 April.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

April 30, Irrawaddy
PLA deploys more troops at Burma border - Wai Moe

China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has recently deployed more troops
along its southwestern border with Burma, where tension remains high
between Burmese government forces and the ethnic Wa army over the ethnic
group's refusal to join the military junta's border guard force (BGF).

Sources close to the Wa said more PLA troops had been deployed in areas
bordering Wa strongholds controlled by the United Wa State Army (UWSA),
which has at least 20,000 soldiers. China has also deployed air defense
units, according to the sources.

“We estimate that five PLA brigades [some 5,000 troops] have been
deployed,” said one border source.

In February, the PLA deployed an unknown number of soldiers in border
towns close to the Wa areas where armed conflict is anticipated. Local
people said they saw Chinese troops exercising every morning.

The deployment along the border comes after 37,000 ethnic Kokang and
Chinese people took refuge on Chinese soil in August after Burmese
government troops overran the Kokang capital of Laogai.

As former guerrillas of the Communist Party of Burma, the ethnic minority
armies of the Wa, the Kokang and the Mongla-based National Democratic
Alliance Army were trained by and have had long alliances with the PLA.
Military analysts said that during the communist insurgency, ethnic
fighters are believed to have fought alongside Chinese troops against the
Burmese army.

As Naypyidaw pushes for acceptance of the BGF plan ahead of the general
election later this year, leaders of the junta's civic organization, the
Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), including Minister of
Industry 1 Aung Thaung and Minister of Telecommunications, Post and
Telegraphs Thein Zaw, met Christian Kachin leaders in the state capital of
Myitkyina on Thursday afternoon.

During the meeting, USDA leaders expressed their wish that the Kachin
Independence Organization (KIO) accept the BGF terms, according to KIO
sources in Laiza.

The last meeting between government negotiators and the KIO leadership was
on April 22-23 when no agreement was concluded. However, the Burmese
officials reportedly told the KIO to consider an alternative
proposal—joining a “Union Defense Force.”

Amid the tension at the Sino-Burmese border, Burmese government troops
have forcefully recruited local people in towns in northern Shan State and
Kachin State for porter service. “A few days ago, men were arrested by
troops to work as porters. Now people are scared to go out,” said a
resident in Bhamo.

Meanwhile, a government army convey was ambushed by an unknown armed group
in an area controlled by the Shan State Army- North in northern Shan
State, according to the Shan Herald Agency for News.

____________________________________

April 30, Democratic Voice of Burma
Beggar children held in Malaysian camp - Aye Nai

Six Burmese child beggars in Malaysia have been kept in an immigration
detention camp for more than nine months as the Burmese embassy continues
to deny them assistance.

The children, who range from 10 to 14 years old, were trafficked into
Malaysia from Rangoon, Irrawaddy and Mandalay divisions last year. Kyaw
Thaung, of the Burmese Nationals Association in Thailand, said financial
assistance is needed for the children to travel back to Burma.

“We are having a headache over raising money for the kids – for travel
expenses, food and clothing,” he said. He added that both the Burmese
embassy in Malaysia and the UN’s refugee agency were playing “volleyball”
with the children.

“That’s why they’ve been here for so long. Otherwise, the children
would’ve been home long ago.” He said the group is now preparing to seek
assistance from Save the Children UK.

The Burmese embassy in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur was unavailable
for comment.

The families of two of the children, 10-year-old Kyaw Thu Linn and
12-year-old Aye Mya Htwe, were reportedly duped by traffickers into
handing over their kids who were promised work in Rangoon, a source close
to their family said. As money began to be sent by them, via traffickers,
to the family, the mother handed over her eight-year-old son; unbeknown to
her, he was also taken to Malaysia.

The boy is now believed to be missing in Malaysia and the family has not
been able to contact him.

“[Kyaw Thu Linn and Aye Mya Htwe] were in Malaysia for about a year and
four months. About six month ago, Kyaw Thu Linn’s brother was taken there
by the same traffickers,” said the source. “Now some human traffickers are
in detention.”

A police officer in Madaya, in Mandalay division, said that Burmese
authorities were aware that the children were in Malaysia.

“[Burmese police] have a department called the ‘Transnational Organised
Crime’ department and they will make necessary contacts with the foreign
government,” he said. “As for us, we are a lower-ranking police station
and we can’t bring people back. I think [the government] will make a
ceremonial process to bring them back.”

He said that two couples in Madaya have confessed to the police that they
sold the children. Kyaw Thaung told DVB that children were smuggled into
Malaysia via overland and air routes.

“They said they were made to beg for money, with no breakfast provided for
them in the mornings. They were instructed to earn around 70 to 80
Malaysian ringgit ($US22 to $US25) and were beaten when they failed.”

Two of the six children, Aung Ko Win and Nay Linn Oo, were residents in
Rangoon’s Hlaing Tharyar township. Local police said they knew nothing
about them. The other two children were identified as Tin Myo Htet from
Irrawaddy division’s Kyaukgon town, and Min Yu San from Dala in Rangoon

____________________________________

April 30, Khonumthung News
India to flush out northeast rebels from Burma

In the wake of its drive against Northeast India insurgent groups, the
Indian Army has blocked all the foot roads on the Indo-Myanmar border from
April 20. The rebels are expected to be flushed out from Burma by the
military junta.

 “No one is allowed to use the border foot roads. Indian troops are being
stationed throughout the border areas over two weeks,” said a local in
Aichin village, Tonzang township in Chin state.

Meanwhile, Burmese soldiers are patrolling the Indo-Myanmar border areas
like – Hnahlan, Haichin, Aichin and other villages in Tonzang Township.

“Burmese military personnel are still patrolling the border areas. They
are not ordinary soldiers, but are known as border defence troops of the
military junta,” he added.

India’s northeast insurgent groups are said to be very active in Tonzang
Township, northern Chin state in Burma.

“The rebel groups continue to be active in our areas like before. There is
no change though the border roads are blocked by Indian soldiers,” said a
local.

Following an agreement between the Indian government and the Burmese
junta, preparations are afoot for a joint military operation in
Indo-Myanmar border areas to flush out Indian insurgents. The agreement
between the two governments was reached following high level visits from
the Indian side.

The Indian government authorities have already warned the Chin National
Front, the Chin ethnic armed group, to stay clear of the flush out
operation.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

April 30, Mizzima News
‘Bomb scares’ spur 80pc drop in trade fair turnout - Myo Thein

Rangoon - Turnout at the “Lifestyle and IT 2010” exhibition, which started
on Wednesday at the Tatmadaw (Armed Forces) Hall in Rangoon, has seen an
80 per cent drop in visitor numbers compared with other trade fairs held
this year, organisers say.

About 10,000 visitors registered on the first day of this four-day show.
Previous fairs this year saw 50,000 participants daily, a staff member of
the organiser, Milky Way International, said. The show was opened by
Rangoon Command chief Major General Win Myint and Lieutenant General Myint
Swe from the Ministry of Defence.

“We arranged detailed security measures for this exhibition. I think the
people are scared after recent bomb blasts. Even on the opening day, only
few visitors came,” the Milky Way staff member said.
lifestyle-it2010exhibition1s

There are more than 100 exhibitions by more than 50 companies, displaying
computer goods, electrical appliances, furniture, clothes, foodstuffs and
general merchandise. Products are available for sale.

Due to the low visitor turnout, a number of company representatives said
the show would be unprofitable and that they would probably not cover
costs.

“I think the bomb threat has driven people away from crowded places.
Another possible factor is the high daytime temperature, which forces
people to stay at home”, a marketing manager with a prominent computer
exhibitor said.

Most visitors are interested only in product promotions, which are
“half-entertainment” by models and dance troupes, the manager said.

Only a few DVD players, televisions, electronic products, cosmetic items
and low-priced household goods were sold on opening day, another exhibitor
said.

A woman selling food in front of the exhibition hall said: “I hired this
space for my restaurant at the price of 250,000 Kyats (US$250) for the
four days. I earned only about 30,000 [by end of trading] 
 Visitors come
in dribs and drabs only.

“At this rate, I’m going to lose a lot in my business,” she said.

____________________________________

Volume 26, No. 520: Myanmar Times
China FDI climbs by just $15m - Ye Lwin

Total foreign direct investment in Myanmar from China hit US$1.85 billion
by the end of 2009-2010 financial year, with significant expenditures in
hydropower, oil and gas and mining, official figures show.

However, only $15 million of that total investment was added during the
2009-10 fiscal year. It leaves China as the third largest investor in
Myanmar behind Thailand and the United Kingdom.

“The FDI flow from China contributes 12 percent of total FDI in our
country,” U Htay Chun, deputy director general of the Directorate of
Investment and Company Administration, said at the recent China-Myanmar
Business Conference at Traders Hotel.

According to statistics from the Ministry of National Planning and
Economic Development, total FDI in Myanmar was $16.05 billion to March 31,
2010.

“Thailand, United Kingdom and China, Singapore and Malaysia are leading
countries investing in Myanmar,” U Htay Chun said. He added that there are
63 Chinese firms investing in Myanmar.

http://www.mmtimes.com/2010/business/520/b52004.html

____________________________________
DRUGS

April 30, Irrawaddy
Three dead in drugs clash - Saw Yan Naing

Mae Ai, Thailand—Thai border rangers clashed with drug traffickers on the
Thai-Burmese border about 30 kilometers from Mai Ai District in Chiang Mai
Province on Wednesday, killing three suspected drug traffickers and
seizing amphetamine pills, according to Thai military sources.

Pornthep Eamprapai, the director of the Office of the Narcotics Control
Board in Chiang Mai told The Irrawaddy on Friday that the three dead
suspects, believed to be an ethnic Wa and two Lahu, were attempting to
smuggle drugs into northern Thailand.

Some 200,000 methamphetamine pills, an AK-47 rifle and grenades were
founded after the fighting, he said.

“We are worried about the increase in drug trafficking,” said Eamprapai,
adding that the army has stepped up vigilance along the border.

He said groups of traffickers operated on the border included ethnic Wa,
Lahu, and Lisu, adding that it was mostly Lahu men traveling on foot by
night who carried the drug packages.

On April 12, soldiers from the Pha Muang Task Force in Mae Sai District of
Chiang Rai Province seized about 400,000 methamphetamine pills—known as
“ya-ba” in Thailand—which had been smuggled from Burma.

Drugs are most commonly smuggled across the Thai-Burmese border into Mae
Sai and  Chiang Mai Province before being sent onward to Bangkok,
Thailand's capital, he said.

The Thai military are closely watching the buildup of tension between the
Burmese government and the Wa cease-fire militia known as the Wa State
Army (UWSA).

With 25,000 fighters under its command, the UWSA has rejected the Burmese
regime's demands to turn its militia into border guard forces under
Burmese army control. The final deadline passed on April 28.

Eamprapai said he believed that the influx of drugs flowing into Thailand,
especially into Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces, will increase if
fighting breaks out between government forces and the UWSA.

Thai soldiers in Nor Lae village in Fang District of Chiang Mai Province
on the border with southern Shan State are often ordered to patrol along
the border where Wa, Lahu and Lisu drug traffickers are active, Thai
military sources said.

After the fall of the ethnic Kokang army's capital of Laogai in August
2009, large amounts of illicit drugs were smuggled into Thailand in what
Thailand's anti-narcotic agency called a “clearance sale.”

The New York Times reported in Sept 2009 that heroin seizures by the Thai
police in northern Thailand increased. From October 2008 to August 2009,
the authorities seized 2,795 pounds of heroin, up from 125 pounds a year
earlier, according to the Office of Narcotics Control of Thailand.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

April 30, Mizzima News
Burma still among worst states for press freedom: report - Ko Wild

Chiang Mai – Burma is still included on the list of the 10 worst countries
for violating media freedom and the military regime tightened such
restrictions last year, a report from US democracy and rights watchdog
Freedom House said.

Washington-based Freedom House said in its report, “Freedom of the Press
2010”, that the Burmese junta was continuing to monitor internet cafes and
that at least 17 journalists were arrested and imprisoned by the end of
last year.

The report was based on surveys on the condition of worldwide press
freedoms during last year and maintains Burma in its 10 worst-rated
countries along with Belarus, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Iran,
Libya, North Korea, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In these states, the
press acts as a mouthpiece for the regime, citizens’ access to unbiased
information is severely limited and dissent is crushed through
imprisonment, torture and other forms of repression, it says.

The report categorised countries as “Free”, “Partly Free” and “Not Free”.
Burma, China, Tibet, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam are listed as “Not Free”
and Thailand is rated “Partly Free”.

In Burma, daily papers and broadcasters are wholly owned or controlled by
the military regime. Private periodicals are allowed to be published but
the censorship board is governed by military officers.

The works of cartoonist “Aw Pi Kye”, who depicts the topsy-turvy situation
of Burmese society, are banned by the military regime. Blogger Nay Phone
Latt, who spread the majority of updated news during the 2007 September
“saffron revolution” to the outside world, is serving a 12-year prison
sentence.

Cartoonist Han Lay, a winner of this year’s Hellman/Hammett prize awarded
by New York-based Human Rights Watch, said there was “no freedom at all”
on all fronts in Burma. The prize is given to writers who have been
victims of persecution. Prominent writers and journalists from all over
the world have been recipients since it was created in 1989.

“After 1988, the situation is worse than before. All the people are
trapped with no outlet. They don’t know what freedom is. All of their
potential and calibre has been eliminated”, Han Lay told Mizzima.

The cartoonist attended Rangoon Painting Sculpture and Arts School from
1982 to 1984. After the 1988 uprising he fled to the border. He is now
serving the Thailand-based Irrawaddy magazine and his works are held in
high regard.

Freedom House reported that the world’s press freedom had declined for the
eighth consecutive year. It says only one in six people live in countries
with a “Free” press and that only the Asia-Pacific region had shown
overall improvement. Regional declines were registered in the former
Soviet Union and Latin America.

Status changes were reported this year in Bangladesh and Bhutan from Not
Free to Partly Free and improvements were seen in India and Indonesia, the
report says.

____________________________________

April 29, Index on Censorship/IFEX
Index on Censorship rallies campaigners in support of imprisoned comedian

(Index on Censorship/IFEX) - Supported by Index on Censorship, campaigners
from across the UK and abroad are to converge on London's Trafalgar Square
on 3 May in support of Zarganar, Burma's most famous comedian turned
prisoner of conscience.

The Free Zarganar Campaign coalition will be holding a colourful afternoon
in London's Trafalgar Square to call for his immediate release. The
comedian, writer and performer is currently serving a 35-year prison
sentence for his criticism of the Burmese junta's bungled response to the
2 May 2008 Cyclone Nargis disaster.

The cyclone devastated the country - more than 140,000 people died and
millions were made homeless.

The event starts at 2:00 pm on 3 May and is open to all. Organisers ask
supporters to wear something red to help show their support and bring
along an umbrella - the more colourful the better - to take part in our
umbrella stunt.

Speakers on 3 May, which is also World Press Freedom Day 2010, include Bo
Bo Lansin, journalist, artist and a friend of Zarganar, and freelance
journalist and former political prisoner Nita May, who will talk about
freedom of the press for women in Burma, the rights of artists and
performers in Burma and share the latest news on Zarganar's situation.

Other speakers are Carole Seymour-Jones, Deputy President of English PEN
and Chair of the Writers in Prison Committee, Aung Thwin, former political
prisoner and a close friend of Zarganar, and Dr. Win Naing, activist and a
former colleague of Zarganar. There will also be performances by the The
Burmese Theatre Workshop and Camila Fiori.

Zarganar, an outspoken critic of the military government, was arrested on
4 June 2008 for his public criticism of the government's response to the
humanitarian crisis that emerged in the wake of Cyclone Nargis.

After it emerged that the Burmese government was obstructing international
aid that was to be distributed to the devastated Irrawaddy Delta and
surrounding areas, Zarganar began to lead efforts to raise and distribute
aid from private donors.

Despite assurances from the authorities that private donors would be given
free access to cyclone affected areas, Zarganar and at least 21 others
were later arrested for their participation in the voluntary aid effort.

Zarganar regularly gave interviews to journalists abroad, exposing the
devastation which had not been reported by the tightly-controlled Burmese
media. They collected video footage and photographic evidence from the
affected areas. Two days after his arrest, state-controlled media
published warnings against the production of video footage of relief work
for foreign news agencies.

Zarganar has insisted that humour in Burma will prevail. "Burmese people
love to laugh. If I can't speak, jokes will still spread. People will make
them up themselves."

The Free Zarganar Campaign was launched by a consortium of human rights
and freedom of expression advocates including Index on Censorship. Its
goal is to mobilise public opinion and win his immediate release.

For more information on the campaign click here

For more information:
enquiries (@) indexoncensorship.org
Phone: +44 20 7324 2522

Index on Censorship
http://www.indexoncensorship.org
____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

April 30, Strategy Page
The Bombs of Spring

The five tribal militias that were supposed to turn themselves over to
government control yesterday, refused to. So the government has to decide
if there will be another military campaign to persuade the tribes to obey.
The tribes have been saying "no" for decades. While the tribes are
outnumbered about ten to one by the 400,000 troops in the Burmese army,
what counts is how many fighters you can put into the rugged hills of
northern Burma. In this case, all the 40,000 or so tribal gunmen are there
and ready to fight. The government has a hard time getting even 100,000
troops into the region (lack of roads and towns makes supplying the
soldiers difficult). Most of the troops are tied down protecting military
supply lines and bases. In the past, the army has had some success by
concentrating on one tribe at a time, but even this was not a complete
success.  Half the tribal militiamen belong to one group, the UWSA (United
Wa State Army). The Wa are ethnic Chinese, and many Wa live across the
border in China. The Chinese has made it clear to the Burmese government
that any attack on the Wa would not be appreciated. The government has
tried interfering with trucks (carrying food and other goods) entering Wa
territory. The Wa simply get what they need from China, although some
Burmese Wa live closer to roads coming from the south, rather than those
coming from China.

Bowing to international pressure, the government has agreed to hold
national elections later this year, to elect a civilian government to
replace the military dictatorship that has ruled for over half a century.
However, the generals apparently plan to rig the election, so they, or
people they control, get elected. This in itself is not unusual, it goes
on in many parts of the world. But the Burmese generals are going to do it
right in front of the world community and are daring the righteous to do
something about it.

Meanwhile, there has been a sharp increase in terrorist bombs. No one has
taken credit, but in the past this violence was either the work of
separatist rebels from the north, or anti-dictatorship rebels in the
south. Neither group has had much success in overthrowing the military
government.

April 28, 2010: In the east, a man being questioned (but apparently not
searched) by police in a police station, set off a bomb he was carrying.
The bomber was killed and four policemen wounded.

April 27, 2010:  Someone threw several hand grenades at workers on a
hydroelectric dam site in the northeast. Four workers were wounded.

April 26, 2010: About two dozen of the most senior government officials
resigned from the army. This is so these men can run in the upcoming
elections as civilians, and keep their jobs.

April 17, 2010: Four bombs went off on a hydroelectric dam site in the
northeast. One worker was wounded, and there was some property damage.

April 15, 2010: During the annual water festival in Rangoon (Yangon,
largest city in Burma), three bombs went off, killing ten and wounding
nearly 200. This was the worst terrorist attack in five years.

April 11, 2010:  The government has called on India to provide military
assistance (a bribe) so that both countries can go into their mutual
border area and destroy camps (on the Burmese side of the frontier) used
by Indian rebels.

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/myanmar/articles/20100429.aspx

____________________________________

April 30, Asia Times
Myanmar ceasefires on a tripwire - Brian McCartan

Bangkok - Yet another deadline has passed for ethnic ceasefire groups in
Myanmar to join the military as part of a new government-controlled Border
Guard Force (BGF). With the rainy season approaching and a transition from
military to civilian rule underway, opportunities are dwindling for the
ruling junta to force the groups to agree before elections are held later
this year.

The former ceasefire groups, including the Kachin Independence
Organization/Army (KIO/KIA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the
National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA) are the
largest of more than 25 groups that have agreed to suspend their armed
struggles since 1989.

The Karen National Union (KNU) and the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S), as
well as several other smaller groups, continue to fight the regime in
eastern Myanmar. The ceasefire groups were told by the regime’s
negotiator, Lieutenant General Ye Myint, they had until April 22 to
announce their decisions on joining the military or face military
offensives. The deadline was later extended to yesterday.

Observers note that it was the fifth deadline set by the government and
question how committed the regime is to backing its threats with force.
Four previous deadlines, in October and December 2009 and February and
March 2010, passed without consequence. Prior to yesterday’s deadline,
negotiations between junta and ceasefire group representatives have been
inconclusive.

The groups were told that failure to comply by the deadline would result
in revocation of their ceasefire status and they would be considered
illegal organizations. With that designation, they would be forced to
surrender without the option of retaining their arms. The situation has
left many with the feeling that while the conversion of the ceasefire
groups to BGFs is a step on the regime's so-called "roadmap to democracy",
the generals are not prepared to resume full-scale hostilities while
managing the delicate democratic transition.


>From a military perspective, analysts belie'e the generals’ window of

opportunity has narrowed. The rainy season is only weeks away and most
analysts believe there is not enough time for the army to carry out a
knockout offensive. The rains make the largely unpaved roads and trails in
ceasefire groups’ territories almost impassable, preventing the effective
supply of military units to carry out offensive operations.

Two minor skirmishes on April 23 and 24 between the Myanmar Army and the
United Wa State Army (UWSA) near the Thai border resulted in no casualties
and an army admission that it had made a mistake, thinking their opponents
were the still-insurgent SSA-South. Although Wa in areas along the Thai
border have started to flee to areas closer to the border or even into
Thailand, the armed exchange did not indicate the beginning of full-blown
offensive military operations.

The deadline and the expected outlawing of the ceasefire groups will
effectively put them outside the election process and ensure that their
political wings are unable to form parties and contest the polls, the
country's first since 1990. The military annulled the results of those
polls and has since maintained an iron-clad grip on power. There is even
some question of whether campaigning and voting will take place in the
areas controlled by the groups.

The international community will also pay closer attention to Myanmar
during the campaign period and the regime is anxious to win a stamp of
approval for their tightly controlled transition towards democratic rule.
A military campaign with its attendant casualties and human rights abuses
would distract international attention from the elections and likely spark
new criticism of the junta.

Ethnic aspirations
Under the proposed BGF arrangement, ethnic rebel armies would be reduced
in size and their fighters reorganized into battalions under the command
of a department in the military. Myanmar officers and non-commissioned
officers would be assigned to each battalion, largely in specialist and
logistics roles, and the government would be responsible for training,
equipping and paying the new units.

The ethnic groups have argued that they cannot allow their military wings
to come under government control while issues are still outstanding
regarding guarantees for ethnic rights and a hoped for move towards
federalism. They say the 2008 constitution, passed in what many consider
to have been a rigged referendum, does not do enough to guarantee ethnic
rights.

Rather than reject the BGF plan outright, each of the three main ceasefire
groups - the Kachin Independence Organization/Army, the UWSA and the
National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State - have offered
counter-proposals.

The Kachin, probably the most politically savvy of the three and the least
tainted by allegations of drug trafficking, have called for discussions to
amend the constitution to better reflect ethnic aspirations of federalism.
They have called for a return to the "Panglong spirit", referring to an
agreement reached in 1947 between independence leader General Aung San and
representatives from various ethnic groups, including the Kachin and the
Shan, that was supposed to guarantee a form of federalism for the
country's ethnic groups.

Pressure on the then democratic government to better implement the
federalism enshrined in the Panglong Agreement was one of the reasons for
the 1962 coup that turned the country into a military dictatorship. This
led directly to the Kachin's revolt and enflamed rebellion in nearby Shan
State.

As a concession, the Kachin have recently offered to integrate their
troops into a "federal army" that would include separate Kachin
battalions. The government has rejected the Kachin proposals and
Lieutenant General Ye Myint has said in response that "the Panglong era is
over".

The UWSA, widely regarded as the world’s largest narco-trafficking
militia, presented the regime with a nine-point proposal in November that
it has been presented at each follow-up meeting with the regime. They have
indicated they would be willing to join the BGF as long as their concerns
in the proposal are addressed.
The main points of contention are the control of an area in the south of
Shan State along the border with Thailand known as the UWSA's 171 Military
Region, the UWSA's control of two townships along the Chinese border that
abut on territory controlled by its ally, the NDAA, and, most
significantly, its disagreement with assigning Myanmar army officers to
BGF battalions.

The Wa believe the area along the Thai border was given as compensation by
the regime for the Wa's role in a seven-year war fought against former
Mong Thai army leader and drug lord Khun Sa. In 1999, tens of thousands of
Wa farmers were relocated to the region, a move the Wa say would be
impossible to reverse.

The UWSA revised its proposal in a submission to the junta on April 1,
saying it was willing to concede control of two areas along the Thai
border and allow for certain positions within the new border guard
battalions for Myanmar army officers. The offer was turned down by a junta
delegation on April 9 with the demand that the Wa abide by the BGF
proposal without any changes. A similar proposal put forward by the NDAA
was also rejected.

Prior to each elapsed deadline, reports have circulated of Myanmar Army
reinforcements arriving opposite the position of the ethnic fighters and
heightened tension among residents in nearby towns and villages. Junta
checkpoints have been set up to block the flow of food and other supplies,
although this has been largely countered by sourcing items from across the
border in China.

Following the March deadline, the junta ordered civil officials and staff
of non-governmental organizations working in the area to leave Wa areas by
March 24. However, by April 6, United Nations and NGO staff involved in
development and opium substitution projects had returned to resume their
work.

The army's August 2009 offensive against the Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army (MNDAA) in the Kokang region of northern Myanmar seems to
have had little effect on the resolve of the groups to oppose the BGF
scheme.

According to Shan and Western observers, the groups have instead learned
from the event and taken steps to strengthen cooperation, especially
between the UWSA and NDAA. With the deadline looming, the UWSA hosted a
meeting with its allies last week to discuss the possibility of Myanmar
military operations.

The threats apparently did influence one group, the Shan State Army-North
(SSA-N). Its top commander, Major General Loimao, agreed to join the BGF
in an April 22 meeting in Lashio with the Myanmar Army's Northeast Command
commander, Major General Aung Than Tut. A ceremony was held on April 25 to
formalize the transformation of Loimao's headquarters security unit into
the Hsengkeow Home Guard Force.

The agreement, however, has reportedly split the 5,000 man SSA-N. The 1st
Brigade, the SSA-N's strongest, with some 2,500 fighters under Major
General Parngfa, has declared that it will not join the BGF. Soldiers from
the SSA-N's other units are reportedly leaving their units to join
Parngfa. The group's leader, Major General Hso Ten, is serving a 106-year
prison sentence for political offenses.

China factor
Developments in Myanmar's northern border region are of immense importance
to China, which has extensive and growing investments in the country's
natural resources. Not least of these is the dual oil and gas pipeline
from Myanmar's western coast to Kunming in China's southwest. The
pipelines, which are expected to go online in 2013, will supply China with
oil and gas from the controversial Shwe Gas field off Myanmar's coast as
well as from tankers, which will no longer have to travel around the
strategically vulnerable Malacca Strait.

In addition to the pipelines and resource extraction projects, China sees
Myanmar as a conduit for products from its landlocked southwestern regions
to the outside world and is anxious to prevent any disruption in such
flows. China is also known to be concerned about the possibility of
instability along the border with its southwest region, which is home to
numerous ethnic groups and has had a restive past.

China would like to avoid a repeat of the influx of some 30,000 refugees
in the wake of last August's attack in Kokang. Analysts and relief workers
believe that fighting against the KIA, UWSA and NDAA would result in many
times that number and a refugee problem that could last for years.

Beijing issued a rare rebuke against the junta immediately after the
attack on the Kokang and has since increased its military presence along
the border. Several visits by high-ranking Chinese officials in the months
since are believed to have included discussion of the ethnic ceasefire
groups.

Chinese officials and military officers have acted as mediators in
discussions between the ceasefire groups and the junta in an attempt to
get both sides to soften their positions. One delegation reportedly
accompanied the UWSA to talks in February.

The situation of the ceasefire groups will likely be one of the first
important issues dealt with by Myanmar's newly elected government next
year. Once the elections, expected to take place in October, are over and
the new government is installed, the military can resume its pressure on
the groups or take military action, analysts suggest.

By then the army will supposedly be under civilian rule in a democratic
country rather than the footsoliders of a military dictatorship bent on
crushing all of those opposed to its power. It's a distinction the
ceasefire groups are no doubt weighing in their refusal to put down their
arms and join the BGFs.

Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached
at brianpm at comcast.net

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LD30Ae01.html

____________________________________

April 29: The Economist
The paucity of hope; Myanmar's evil junta

A tale of catastrophe and compassion: Everything is Broken: A Tale of
Catastrophe in Burma. By Emma Larkin. Penguin Press; 271 pages; $25.95. To
be published in Britain by Granta in July as “Everything is Broken: The
Untold Story of Life Under Burma’s Military Regime”; £12.99. Buy from
Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk

BACK in 1995, The Economist asked Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s opposition
leader, now under house arrest, if she saw any hope for her benighted
country. “I do not hope,” she replied in her crisp, rather
school-mistressy way. “I persevere.” Fifteen years on, hope still seems a
frivolous indulgence, despite plans by the ruling junta to stage an
election this year that will lead to a notionally civilian government.

This moving account of the regime’s response to a devastating cyclone two
years ago is a timely warning against optimism. What kind of government
actively impedes the delivery of life-saving aid to its people? By its
own, probably drastically understated guess, 138,300 people died or went
missing when Cyclone Nargis struck the Irrawaddy delta in May 2008. Yet
the junta rejected most foreign offers of assistance. Help from the United
Nations, countless NGOs and even the American navy was rebuffed. By the
time some aid was allowed in, it was too late for many.

Emma Larkin is the nom de plume of an American living in Bangkok who wrote
an earlier book about George Orwell’s links with the country. She secured
a visa to visit Myanmar in the aftermath of the cyclone, providing her
with a close-up view of the clash between an isolationist regime and an
often ignorant outside world. “Does anyone know where I can access the
data?” asks a forlorn, newly arrived NGO worker. In Myanmar there are no
reliable data, and if there were, access would be denied by the regime.

That makes it hard to write a book whose central question is why the junta
behaved so callously. Perhaps it really did fear that the aid effort might
provide a pretext for invasion. More likely it was paranoid about allowing
foreigners in after the brutality used against rebellious Buddhist monks
in September 2007 had outraged popular opinion.

The author is reduced to passing on rumours to explain the inexplicable.
There is not much doubt, for example, that the generals are superstitious.
But is it really true that, late one night in 2007, the wife of the
dictator, “senior general” Than Shwe, went for a walk in Yangon around the
Shwedagon, Myanmar’s holiest pagoda, with a dog and a pig on leads? The
story is, apparently, widely believed: a dog signifies Monday, a pig
Wednesday. Miss Suu Kyi was born on a Tuesday, so the perambulation bound
her into powerlessness.

Perhaps soothsayers advised against accepting foreign aid. A cruder
suggestion is voiced by a Burmese friend of the author. Than Shwe sees
himself as an incarnation of ancient kings, and a king does not bother
about how his slaves are doing: “Their death or hardship is not his
concern.” That does not stop another story emerging: about the human
decency and compassion of a people colonised by their own army who did
their best for their afflicted compatriots. Myanmar is indeed an object
lesson in perseverance.

http://www.economist.com/culture/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=16004426