BurmaNet News, May 6, 2010

[Editor]

May 6, 2010, Issue #3956

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar opposition holds last event as legal party
Mizzima News: NLD offices remove signboards against Suu Kyi’s wishes
Mizzima News: NLD party makes parting gesture for pupils
DVB: Political parties slam ‘rule-breaking’ PM
Irrawaddy: NLD members to form new party
Irrawaddy: Naypyidaw: No more 'military government'
Jane’s Intelligence Weekly: Tensions rising between Myanmar’s military
junta and the Kachin Independence Army
AFP: Myanmar police accuse exile group over Yangon blasts
SHAN: Shan rebel leader spurns secret talks report

BUSINESS / TRADE
Asia Times: Call to open Myanmar's books
Irrawaddy: Pre-paid SIM card sales drop after bombings

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: Quintana says conditions not present for credible elections

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Remembering the NLD - Moe Zaw Oo
Irrawaddy: We must deny the military regime in Burma the legitimacy it
craves - Mitch Mcconnell
The Independent: Christophe de Margerie: 'It is not oil or the
environment, it's oil and the environment'

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 6, Associated Press
Myanmar opposition holds last event as legal party

Yangon - The party of detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi,
founded more than 20 years ago to challenge military rule in Myanmar, held
a final gathering Wednesday at its headquarters before its forced
dissolution.

The National League for Democracy, which won a 1990 election but was
denied power by the army, held an early celebration of Suu Kyi's June 19
birthday, an occasion on which it gives children of political prisoners
financial aid for their education.

The League declined to reregister as a party this year, which new election
laws required to contest an election supposed to be held sometime later
this year. The League says the laws are undemocratic and unfair, and its
non-registration is tantamount to an election boycott.

At the party's central office in Yangon, desks were being cleared, paper
files tied up and locked away in cupboards and party property was
inventoried. Under the law, the party becomes "null and void," at midnight
Thursday.

However, Suu Kyi has instructed her party not to take down the party
signboard or party flag featuring the "fighting peacock" after the
deadline. She told her party members through the party spokesman that "she
will never turn her back to the people or her struggle for democracy."

It is not clear what action authorities could take against such activity.
The junta is intolerant of dissent, and has long repressed its opponents.
According to the U.N. and human rights groups, there are more than 2,000
political prisoners nationwide.

Meanwhile, Myanmar's highest court rejected an application by Suu Kyi to
annul some articles of the party registration law. Her filing in High
Court last week challenged rules that included a bar on a convicted person
being a member of a political party.

Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for 14 of the past 20 years, was
convicted last year of illegally harboring a visitor, an eccentric
American who swam uninvited to her lakeside home.

The court also rejected an application to have seated the parliament
elected in 1990.

About 150 members of the National League for Democracy gathered at their
dilapidated two-story headquarters near the foot of Yangon's Shwedagon
pagoda for Suu Kyi's 65th birthday celebration. Several foreign diplomats
also attended.

"We cannot hold Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's birthday at the party headquarters
on June 19 though we will hold a religious ceremony at one of the member's
house on Daw Suu's birthday," said Dr. May Win Myint, an elected candidate
in 1990 and a senior party member. 'Daw' is a term of respect for older
women.

"We are wrapping up our party work at the headquarters but we will carry
out our political activities in any possible manner and continue with
other social welfare projects," she said.

Party spokesman Nyan Win said the party "may cease to exist under the law"
but will continue to carry out social activities while party members will
individually engage in political activities.

"We will survive as long as we have public support," Nyan Win said.

The new election laws in fact allowed the League's branch offices to
reopen earlier this year, some seven years after they were shut by the
government, which was anxious to demonstrate it was allowing the
resumption of political activity ahead of the planned polls.

It remained unclear whether the branch offices would be permitted to stay
open in some capacity after the party's headquarters closes.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkveLB56JCzxoTWaW84FSrpY-W8QD9FGNV180

____________________________________

May 6, Mizzima News
NLD offices remove signboards against Suu Kyi’s wishes - Myint Maung

New Delhi– Two National League for Democracy township-level offices have
removed party signboards before the party’s dissolution, a source said
last night.

The decision to remove the signboard for the Madaya Township NLD in
Mandalay Division, on township NLD chairman Khin Maung Than’s house, came
out of a meeting of the township NLD members. It was taken down this
morning, an NLD member from Mandalay said on condition of anonymity.

Similarly, the party’s signboard up at NLD Pegu (Bago) Township chairman’s
house (at No. 92, 23rd street, Pan Hlaing Quarter), was taken down  on May
5.

Party general secretary Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains under house arrest,
had ordered against removing party signboards and flags. But, Rangoon NLD
headquarters directed its township offices to decide regionally whether to
keep them, depending on local conditions.

A member of NLD from Pegu (Bago) said: “We were worried we would be sued
if we didn’t remove the signboard. We don’t want to be sued after the
party has been dissolved.”

The NLD headquarters office in Bahan Township would keep its sign up and
the flag flying after the party was dissolved; the members will use the
office for social work, a party official said.

The party decided against re-registering with the Election Commission in
protest at electoral laws apparently targeted by the junta at excluding it
from upcoming national elections. Under the laws, May 6 is the last date
by which old parties registered for the 1990 polls can re-register. If
they fail to do so they will be deregistered on May 7.

Before 2003, when the junta closed the party’s offices, there were more
than 300 NLD centres across the country.

____________________________________

May 6, Mizzima News
NLD party makes parting gesture for pupils - Myint Maung

New Delhi– The National League for Democracy made a final goodwill gesture
towards jailed colleagues as a party by providing scholarships to children
of political prisoners a day before the party re-registration deadline
under the Burmese ruling junta’s electoral laws announced in March.

Bursaries of 23,000 Kyats (US$23) each were given to 127 children from 14
townships in Rangoon Division from the final balance of party funds during
a ceremony at NLD party headquarters in Shwegondine Street, Rangoon, on
Wednesday night.

The ceremony was usually held on party leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s
birthday on June 19 but this year she had suggested holding it before the
expiry date for party re-registration and the party’s abolition by the
authorities, party vice-chairman Tin Oo said.

NLD won a landslide victory in the 1990 general election but the junta
refused to honour the results and clung to power by force. The party
decided against re-registering in protest at electoral laws apparently
targeted by the junta at excluding it from participating in upcoming
national elections. Under the laws, May 6 is the last date by which old
parties registered for the 1990 polls can re-register. If they fail to do
so they will be deregistered.  educational-aid1s

Party women’s wing chief Dr. May Win Myint said this was the ninth time
stipends were given to students of classes from primary to university
level. NLD Rangoon Division branch gave these stipends to family members
of political prisoners in the division after their requests to the party’s
social aid group. Similar awards were made to students in other states and
divisions, she said.

“We have no provisions or appropriations for the cost of educating these
students, per head per year”, Tin Oo said.

More than 2,100 political prisoners remain behind bars and they too are
barred under the electoral laws from contesting the forthcoming elections.

Tin Oo said the party intended to provide more educational stipends to
such students if the organisation continued to receive donations.

The NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi had presented applications for an injunction
and a lawsuit for declaration with the Supreme Court, seeking deletion of
some sections of the Political Parties Registration Law last week, but the
court dismissed the bids yesterday.

____________________________________

May 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Political parties slam ‘rule-breaking’ PM - Aye Nai

A number of parties competing in Burma’s elections this year have said the
formation of a new political party by prime minister Thein Sein violates
Burma’s own domestic laws.

According to the Political Party Registration Law, unveiled in March,
government employees are barred from setting up their own political
parties. Thein Sein, who last week stood down from his military post but
remains prime minister, has announced that he will head the Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which recently registered for the
polls.

The USDP sounds eerily similar to the government-proxy social
organisation, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),
although no concrete link has yet been verified.

If there is a link, then the party would be guilty of political corruption
because the USDA is financed by the government.

“During the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League era [1945 to 1962], the
law prohibited government workers from setting up political parties and
standing for the elections,” said Thu Wei, head of the Democracy Party.
“However, the prime minister’s position back then was not recognised as a
government employee, so we are not yet clear what the law now is.

He added however that it was “completely inappropriate” to use the USDA’s
name. “We dislike and do not accept this,” he said. “This is unfair and
cunning, and is meant to confuse people during the elections. If such a
party becomes the government, lies and wrongdoings will continue.”

Ye Htun, brother of the prominent Burmese politician Aye Lwin and head of
Union of Myanmar 88 Generation Student Youths party, said that Burma was
dealing in “messy politics”.

“Today’s election laws were written by the current military government who
are like the referee on the pitch,” he said. “Now the referee is bringing
his own ball into the game, play the game himself, and he will shoot it
into the goalpost that he himself positioned. This is quite pointless in
politics.”

Khin Maung Swe, spokesperson for the National League for Democracy (NLD),
which today marks its termination as a political after refusing to run in
the elections, said that if Thein Sein was still receiving a government
salary, then his new role as USDP head would be illegal.

Much of the international community has condemned the election laws, which
effectively block the NLD from participating and appear to be a ploy aimed
at keeping the military government in power. More than 25 parties have so
far registered for the elections.

____________________________________

May 6, Irrawaddy
NLD members to form new party - Ba Kaung

Some leading members of Burma's main opposition party, the National League
for Democracy (NLD), who disagreed with the party's decision to boycott
this year's general election, have said they will announce the founding of
a new political party in the coming days that will contest the polls.

The party, to be called the National Democratic Force, will be registered
at the Election Commission sometime in the middle of this month, and will
be headed by several members of the NLD, according to Dr. Than Nyein, a
former political prisoner and a member of the NLD, who is expected to lead
the new party.

“We are not in opposition to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” he said. “We just wish
to continue our political activities. If we don't do this, we won't be
able to achieve anything.”

The NLD will automatically cease to exist at midnight on Thursday as that
is the deadline for all existing political parties in Burma to register
under the junta's election laws. In March, the party and its detained
leader Suu Kyi decided against the party registering under what it called
“unjust and unfair” election laws.

Dr. Than Nyein said that leading party members Dr. Win Naing, Thein Nyunt,
Sein Hla Oo and several others will join the new party. Another prominent
NLD leader, Khin Maung Swe, said that at least 20 Central Committee
members will join the new party, to which he would serve as an adviser.

The Irrawaddy could not independently verify how many NLD members were
preparing to join the new party.

Asked how much public support his party can expect without pro-democracy
icon Suu Kyi at the helm,  Dr. Than Nyein said that he is positive the new
party will win the support of the people. He said the leaders of the new
party will meet to decide how many constituencies the party will contest.

Recently, Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein and more than 20 military
generals resigned their posts in the army and registered the
government-backed Union Solidarity Development Party as a political party
without giving up their civilian posts in the junta's cabinet. This has
exacerbated the fear of many people that the military will continue to
seek a leading role in a future civilian government.

____________________________________

May 6, Irrawaddy
Naypyidaw: No more 'military government' - Nayee Lin Let

The War Office in Napyidaw has issued a directive for state-controlled
media not to describe the  Burmese  government as a “Tatmadaw government,”
according to military sources. Tatmadaw, in Burmese, means “military.”

A high ranking officer said that on April 26, state-owned media such as
newspapers, radio, television run by the Defense Ministry and Information
Ministry were given instructions not to use the term.

“This instruction is aimed at the government led by PM Thein Sein,” said
the officer. “Many high-ranking army officer have already resigned from
their army positions in order to set up a political party and to become
candidates in the upcoming election. In that case, if you continue to use
the term 'Tatmadaw government,' it won’t be relevant. So, the media must
use the term 'government of the union of Burma.'”

The instruction was issued after the resignation of selected army officers
who will join a state-backed political party to stand as candidates for
seats in parliament, said the officer.

The term “Tatmadaw government” has been widely used in regime-controlled
media after the military coup since 1988.

According to an army veteran, after April 26, there are no army officers
in the structure of the current government and the military government has
been transformed into a civilian government.

“If you use the term tatmadaw government, it won’t be relevant with the
current government. So you are not allowed to use the term,” he said.

Under the current government, there are 38 ministries. In the cabinet,
there are 39 ministers and 39 deputy ministers.

It was reported last week that Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein and other
key members of the ruling junta have registered a political party to
contest the upcoming general election.

Thein Sein and 26 other leaders had registered the party, the Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), at the Union Election Commission
in April. The 26 other party leaders were not identified but are known to
be current ministers and deputy ministers.

A list of army officers who resigned:

Ministers:

Gen Htay Oo, agriculture and irrigation  minister
Lt-Gen Soe Thein, Industrial (2) minister
Gen Thein Swe, transportation minister

Brig-Gen Lun Thi, energy minister
Gen Aung Min, railway minister
Brig-Gen Tin Naing Thein, economy and trading minister

Gen Soe Naing, hotel and tourism minister
Gen Hla Htun, finance and taxation minister
Brig-Gen Thein Zaw, communication minister

Brig General Thuya Myint Maung, minister for religion
Gen Khin Aung Myint, minister for culture
Gen Tin Htut, minister for cooperative

Col Thein Nyunt, minister for border areas development
Col Zaw Min, minister for electricity (1)
Gen Khin Maung Myint, minister for construction and electricity (2)

Brig-GenThuya Aye Myint, sports minister
Brig-GenKyaw San, information minister
Brig-GenThein Aung, forestry minister

Gen Maung Oo, home and immigration minister
Brig Ohn Myint, minister for mining
Gen Maung Maung Swe, social affairs minister

Brig-Gen Maung Maung Thein, husbandry and fishery minister
Gen Lin Maung, auditor-general
Brig-Gen Aung Thein Lin, mayor of rangoon
Brig Phone Zaw Han, mayor of mandalay

Deputy Ministers:

Lt-Col Khin Maung Kyaw, industrial (2)
Gen Kyaw Swar Khine, industrial (2)
Col Thuyein Zaw, national planning

Col Nyan Htun Aung, transportation
Brig Tin Htun Aung, labor
Brig Aung Myo Min, education

Brig Than Htay, energy
Brig Aung Htun, economy and trading
Brig Aye Myint Kyu, hotel and tourism

Col Hla Thein Swe, finance and taxation
Gen Thein Htun, communication
Brig Thuya Aung Ko, religion

Brig Myint Thein, construction
Brig Win Sein, immigration
Col Tin Ngwe, border area development
Brig Win Myint, electricity (2)
Brig Bhone Swe, interior
Brig Kyaw Myint, social affairs

Col Maung Par, deputy mayor of Rangoon

____________________________________

May 6, Jane’s Intelligence Weekly l jiwk.janes.com
Tensions rising between Myanmar’s military junta and the Kachin
Independence Army

Tensions are rising between Myanmar’s military junta and the Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), as the latter continues to reject transformation
into a border guard force.

Not all anniversaries are to be celebrated; 28 April marked a year since
Myanmar’s government proposed to integrate some 20 ethnic insurgent
ceasefire groups into the Tat­madaw (armed forces). Despite a year of
negotia­tions, agreement on the proposal seems no closer.

The border guard force (BGF) initiative coin­cides with the military
government’s (State Peace and Development Council: SPDC) efforts to secure
the participation of these groups’ political wings in elections designed
to formalise the mili­tary’s control over the government.

Weaker ceasefire groups have had little choice but to comply with the
Tatmadaw’s demands. However, stronger groups have reacted obsti­nately to
the initiative. One of these is the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which
remains a formidable military group. A spokesman for the KIA’s political
wing, the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), told Jane’s it boasts
25,000 personnel, including between 7,000 and 8,000 ground troops. These
figures may be exaggerated, but the group can also draw on its
7,000-strong militarised youth wing.

Irreconcilable differences
Visiting the KIA’s headquarters in Laiza on 16 April, Jane’s was told why
the BGF initiative is seen as unworkable. According to the proposal, each
BGF unit would be commanded by three majors, including a commander and
vice-com­mander drawn from the ethnic armies and an
intelligence-cum-administrative officer from the government’s army,
significantly restricting the group’s autonomy. The KIA’s independence
would be further compromised by the integration of 29 other officers and
non-commissioned officers from the army into each of the 326-strong units.
Subordinated to the Tatmadaw’s directorate of militias and border guard
forces, the BGF units would be inferior to infantry battalions.

As an incentive, the Tatmadaw promised the KIA salaries, provisions and
armaments. How­ever, the proposal would retire soldiers over the age of 50
and sideline senior KIA commanders. The proposal also omits any mention of
the KIO, which governs the Kachin State Special Region 2.

In an attempt to resolve the ongoing dispute, 16 meetings between the SPDC
and KIO have taken place, but these have achieved little. The KIO’s
ini­tial counter-proposal to the BGF was to rename the KIA as the Kachin
Regional Guard Force and jointly govern Kachin state with the new
govern­ment. The SPDC rejected this on the basis that the BGF was modelled
on international practices, and that the creation of autonomous ethnic
forces would restore a system of administration that had failed under the
previous U Nu government.

In later meetings, the KIO invoked the 1947 Panglong Agreement, which gave
ethnic areas on the periphery of the state internal administrative
autonomy. In response, the northern commander Major General Soe Win
declared: “The age of Panglong has been cancelled and it is gone now.”

Following the last meeting in April, the KIO proposed informally that the
entire BGF issue be set aside for resolution under the new govern­ment,
and that it neither participate nor interfere in the elections. The SPDC
spurned the offer.

Finally, on 15 April, the KIA dispatched a letter to Naypyidaw
acknowledging that it would accept a role within the Tatmadaw, but only on
the basis of equality as part of a union army. On 23 April, the two sides
agreed to continue their dialogue.

Growing tensions
Against this background of uncertainty, a series of recent bomb explosions
have highlighted increased military tension. On 15 April, three bombs
exploded in downtown Yangon. According to the state-run newspaper New
Light of Myanmar, the incident killed 10 people and injured 170. On the
same day, a bomb blast also occurred in the town of Muse at the main
border trade gate with China. Although no one has claimed responsibility
for either blast, several of the ceasefire groups have indicated that if
fighting resumes they will wage urban warfare.

Two days later, 27 bombs exploded at a contro­versial hydropower project
north of Myitkyina. The project has been a source of tension as it will
displace 60 Kachin villages. Government officials are publicly linking the
BGF issue and these bombs. On the morning of the explosions, the
SPDC-supported Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA)
reported that unexploded ordnance at the site resembled KIA-manufactured
bombs.

The KIA vehemently denied any involvement in the bombings when speaking to
Jane’s. How­ever, several weeks before, the USDA revealed that authorities
had arrested a man in possession of 32 remote-controlled bombs. According
to their account, the man confessed he had attended a two-day training
course in explosives organised by the KIA, which had dispatched him and 49
other underground operatives with small stipends and dozens of explosives.

FORECAST
Amid growing tensions, the two sides appear to be at loggerheads. The SPDC
remains resolute, while the KIA position requires either constitutional
redrafting or their exclusion from the process, neither of which the SPDC
wants to accept. A resumption of hostilities is possible, but undesirable
for all parties. The SPDC is likely to forge ahead with elections and
resolve the status of the ceasefire groups later. However, without a
settlement the country’s deep-rooted ethnic problems will only fester.

____________________________________

May 6, Agence France Press
Myanmar police accuse exile group over Yangon blasts

Naypyidaw – Police in Myanmar said Thursday they had arrested a man linked
to deadly grenade blasts in a Yangon park last month, blaming the attacks
on a militant exile group set on disrupting upcoming polls.

A series of explosions on April 15 left 10 people dead and about 170
wounded as thousands of people gathered for water-throwing festivities to
mark the Buddhist New Year, in the worst attack in five years in Myanmar's
main city.

"This brutal act was committed by four terrorist murderers who are members
of a group known as the Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors," Myanmar police
chief Khin Yi said.

One suspect was arrested while the others fled across the border into
Thailand, where police are cooperating in efforts to detain them, he said
at a news conference in the remote administrative capital Naypyidaw.

The movement aimed to "instill fear and unrest among the general public
and eventually to disrupt the 2010 elections," Khin Yi added.

Police said that three grenades had been thrown into the crowds. Another
device, made with a beer can filled with explosive powder and attached by
detonation wire to a mobile telephone, failed to explode.

Khin Yi said that it was the first time that such a "high tech" detonation
method had been used in Myanmar, albeit unsuccessfully.

Members of the Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors movement, armed with
AK-47 assault rifles and grenades, stormed the Myanmar embassy in Bangkok
in 1999 and took 38 hostages.

The police chief said the group was behind a series of blasts in recent
years, although some exile activists were sceptical that the movement was
responsible.

"I'm not sure this group is still even active, because we haven't
encountered them for a long time," said Soe Aung, a spokesman for the
Forum for Democracy in Burma, a coalition of pressure groups.

"We have witnessed that the regime has many times wrongfully accused
democracy activists," he told AFP in Thailand.

Myanmar has been hit by several bomb blasts in recent years which the
junta has blamed on armed exile groups or ethnic rebels.

The latest attacks came as the country prepares for polls planned for the
end of this year, which critics have dismissed as a sham due to laws that
effectively bar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from participating.

Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), was set to be
dissolved at midnight Thursday under laws laid down ahead of the
elections.

The NLD refused to meet a May 6 deadline to re-register as a political
party, which would have forced it to expel its own leader, and boycotted
the vote scheduled for later this year.

The military has ruled Myanmar since 1962, partly justifying its grip on
power by the need to fend off ethnic rebellions that have plagued remote
border areas for decades.

In May 2005, blasts at two Yangon supermarkets and a convention centre
killed 23 people. The junta blamed those explosions on exile groups.

Armed minorities in Karen and Shan states continue to fight the government
along the country's eastern border, alleging they are victims of neglect
and mistreatment.

In other recent attacks, a series of bomb blasts hit a controversial dam
project in remote Kachin state last month, while a series of grenades
exploded at a hydropower project in Bago Division.

Myanmar's police chief said in August last year that security forces had
foiled a plot by a man sent by exiled pro-democracy groups to bomb Yangon
during a visit by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon the previous month.

Rights group Amnesty International in February called on the regime to end
repression of ethnic minority groups ahead of the vote, accusing the
regime of arresting, jailing, torturing and killing minority activists to
crush dissent.

____________________________________

May 6, Shan Herald Agency for News
Shan rebel leader spurns secret talks report - Hseng Khio Fah

Reports about the anti-Naypyitaw Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’ holding
closed door meetings with Naypyitaw is spreading among ceasefire groups,
according to sources from the Sino-Burma border.

The meeting was reported to have been held in late April coinciding with
reports that the ceasefire Shan State Army (SSA) ‘North’ had agreed to
transform itself into a home guard force run by the Burma Army. According
to a United Wa State Army (UWSA) source, the Burma’s ruling military
council was said to have asked the SSA South join hands with it in the
fight against drug dealing groups.

Most ceasefire groups especially the UWSA are reputedly involved in the
drug trade.

The SSA ‘South’ has categorically denied the report. It said it has not
received any further invitation for talks from the Burma Army since 2007.
The report therefore is just a plot by the military junta to discourage
alliance between the ceasefire groups and the SSA ‘South’, according to
its leader Lt-Gen Yawd Serk.

“It is just a malicious rumor. We give our solemn word we will never
betray our allies and our people,” he said. “We will also never do
anything without informing our allies and our people first.”

Anyhow the SSA will always welcome peace talks with the Burma Army if
there is a safe venue for both sides.

In addition, he said, “I would strongly urge all the ceasefire groups and
non-ceasefire groups at this time that we all have to stay more united, to
listen to each other and to be careful about news coming from every side.
Because the military junta will do whatever it can to destroy our unity.”

He also urged all the groups to work in the interests of the people.
Likewise, people are also being urged not to be afraid and not to run away
from their homes anymore.

The Burma Army invited the SSA ‘South’ for a peace talk in 2007.

However the proposed meeting scheduled for 23 May 2007 did not take place
as the two disagreed on the choice of venue: The Burma Army wanted to hold
it in Tachilek, opposite Mae Sai, but the SSA said for the first meeting
it should be held on a neutral country i.e. Thailand.

One border analyst says the Burma Army is playing games to keep the
ceasefire groups from teaming up with the SSA South. “This is very
obviously a psychological warfare.”

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 6, The Asia Times
Call to open Myanmar's books - Brian McCartan

Bangkok - A new international campaign aims to encourage oil and gas
giants Total and Chevron to reveal the extent of payments they have made
to the Myanmar government over the past 18 years. New oil and gas
pipelines are slated to come online in the next few years and rights
groups allege Myanmar's oil and gas industry serves to prop up the
rights-abusing military regime.

EarthRights International (ERI), a Washington DC-based human-rights and
environmental organization, announced the campaign at a press conference
in Bangkok on April 27. A statement for the campaign was signed by more
than 160 labor unions, investmentfirms, academics, non-government
organizations and policy makers, including former Irish president and head
of the United Nations Human Rights Commission, Mary Robinson, as well as
former Norwegian prime minister Kjell Magne Bondevik.

The statement calls for France-based Total, Chevron of the United States,
and Thai state oil company Petroleum Authority of Thailand Exploration and
Production (PTTEP), to reveal the amounts paid to the junta in fees,
taxes, royalties and benefits since the start of the Yadana Gas project in
1992. EarthRights says transparency of these payments would set a good
example for other oil and gas companies now working in Myanmar.

Total, in response to a report by ERI in September 2009, disclosed in
October 2009 that its portion of the Yadana gas project had generated
US$254 million for the junta in 2008. Economists say this data will be
important for the policies, including taxation, interest rates and
exchange rate management, of the government that comes into power after
the elections that are expected to be held this year.

Total, Chevron and PTTEP are part of a consortium, together with Myanmar
state gas firm Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), in the Yadana gas
field in the Andaman sea as well as a gas pipeline that feeds two power
plants that provide electricity to Bangkok. Total signed an initial
profit-sharing contract with MOGE in 1992 and remains the primary
shareholder. Chevron became involved when it bought UNOCAL in 2005. Sales
of gas from the pipeline to PTT Public Company Ltd, Thailand's state-owned
oil and gas company, began in 2000.

The project came in for criticism over well-documented human-rights abuses
in the area directly related to construction of the pipeline between
1996-1999 and ongoing security measures maintained along its route. A
lawsuit brought against UNOCAL in the United States by villagers from the
pipeline area was settled for an undisclosed sum in 2005.

Despite this, Total and Chevron - which inherited UNOCAL's liabilities in
the merger - deny responsibility for the negative impacts of the project,
including human-rights abuses. They have even made claims that rights
abuses have been eradicated in the project area, statements that ERI and
other human-rights groups contest.

The Yadana field is the military regime's single-largest revenue earner.
ERI estimates the field earned $1.7 billion in 2008, of which an estimated
$1.02 billion went directly to the regime. The group believes that from
2000, when gas sales began, through 2008, the junta earned a total of
$7.58 billion in revenues.

Fast cash flows
Another field in the Andaman Sea, the Yetagun, is run by Malaysia's
Petronas, Thai Nippon Steel, PTTEP and MOGE. Petronas took over the stake
of a British energy company that pulled out of the project under pressure
in 2002 and is now its largest shareholder. A natural gaspipeline from the
field joins with the Yadana pipeline at the Thai border. According to
ERI's research, the amount of revenue earned from the Yetagun project is
only slightly less than that generated by the Yadana project.

Another much more ambitious oil and gas pipeline project in western
Myanmar is projected to at least double these annual earnings. The Shwe
Gas project encompasses natural gas extraction from a field off the coast
of Arakan Division and a 2,806-kilometer pipeline that will run the length
of Myanmar to Kunming in southwestern China and onto Nanning, the capital
of Guangxi province.

The consortium involves Daewoo International and Korean Gas of South
Korea, Oil and Gas Corporation (ONCG-Videsh) and Gas Authority of India
Ltd (GAIL) and MOGE. Hyundai Heavy Industries of South Korea was
contracted by Daewoo in February to construct related offshore and onshore
gas production facilities.

China's state-run China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) secured its
place as the sole buyer of the Shwe natural gas reserves in 2008. In June
2009, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping and Myanmar deputy leader Vice
Senior General Maung Aye signed a memorandum of understanding for the
development, operation and management of the pipeline, which will have a
capacity to transport 12 billion cubic meters of natural gasannually.

Conservative estimates indicate that Myanmar's government will earn $1
billion per year from the pipeline over the next 30 years, with the first
gas transfers expected to begin in 2013. This is in addition to the $2.5
billion to $3 billion already paid to the regime for bonuses and contract
exploration rights related to the project.

Supplementing the project is the construction of a deep-sea port and crude
oil storage facilities on Maday Island, near the town of Kyaukpyu, on the
Arakan coast. The port will allow Chinese oil tankers to unload at the
facility and pump the oil through a 771-kilometer pipeline being built
alongside the natural gas pipeline to Kunming.

The oil pipeline will have the capacity to transport 22 million tonnes of
crude oil annually. The port and pipeline will also allow China to avoid
sending oil, by some estimates over 80% of its fuel shipments, from the
Middle East and Africa through the pirate-infested and easily blocked
Malacca Strait. While the port and storage facilities are scheduled to be
completed this year, the pipeline is not expected to be up and running
until 2013.

Blacklisted bosses
Contracts for the construction of the port facilities and some of the
pipeline infrastructure have been given to Asia World and IGE. Asia World
is owned by Steven Law, also known as Tun Myint Hlaing, the son of alleged
drug trafficker Lo Hsing Han. Both Law and his father have been on a US
visa blacklist since 1996 for suspected drug trafficking and their company
is on the US Treasury Department's sanctions list for their financial
connections to the regime.

IGE, which is registered in Singapore, is owned by the sons of Myanmar
Minister of Industry-1, Aung Thaung. The company is on a European Union
sanctions list against junta members and their associated businesses. Aung
Thaung and his sons are barred from entering the European Union and
Australia under the sanctions.

The dual pipeline project has come under criticism from rights groups.
They claim the deal has contributed to increased militarization along the
pipeline route, land confiscation and forced labor. A Myanmar army
offensive against the Kokang ethnic group along the border with China last
year may have also been connected to the pipeline project. Both the
military government in the Myanmar capital in Naypyidaw and officials in
Beijing are keen to make sure that continued tensions between the junta
and ethnic groups along the border do not cause security problems for the
pipeline.

Although India will not receive any of the Shwe Gas field's output, it is
still interested in Myanmar's offshore oil and gas potential. In February,
the Indian government authorized ONCG Videsh and GAIL to move forward with
their stakes in the gas pipeline to China. It also authorized a reported
$1 billion investment by the companies in continued development of
offshore gas fields operated by Daewoo.

Rights groups claim the profits earned by the junta from the Yadana and
Yetagun gas projects already provide the means for the regime to ignore
international criticism and purchase more weapons and equipment for its
military. They claim the $3 billion earned annually from oil and gas
projects would be better spent to improve the country's abysmally
underfunded health and education sectors.

The generals have been criticized for under-reporting their earnings from
the gas projects, which are believed to make up over 60% of national
income. Instead of accurately including gas revenues in its national
budget, the cash received is recorded at the 30-year-old fixed exchange
rate of six kyat to the dollar; the current black market rate is over
1,000 kyat to the greenback.

In a September 2009 report entitled "Total Impact", ERI claimed that the
funds not recorded went into offshore accounts at two banks in Singapore -
the Overseas Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and the DBS Group. Both
banks have officially denied the accusation.

Although oil and gas revenues fell last year due to a decline in global
prices, the revenues were still significant. A MOGE representative told
the ASEAN Council on Petroleum at a trade fair in November that Myanmar
expected to double its output of natural gas in the next 10 years, largely
from the Shwe project.

Economist Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate for economics and former World
Bank head, suggested to Myanmar's leaders in a rare seminar with a foreign
expert in December 2009 that oil and gas revenues could, if used wisely,
open up a new era for the impoverished country. Sean Turnell, an
Australian expert on Myanmar's economy, has suggested that oil and gas
revenues could be used to shore up other parts of the economy, including
initiatives that establish credit systems for farmers. So far this foreign
advice has fallen on deaf ears.

Oil and gas prices and revenues are a contentious issue in Myanmar.
Rapidly rising fuel prices were one of the chief factors that sparked the
anti-government street demonstrations in 2007 that later became known
around the world as the Buddhist monk-led "Saffron" revolution. As part of
a recent move to privatize many of the junta's business holdings, tycoon
and junta favorite Tay Za has moved to secure contracts for state-run gas
stations, a move that has apparently provoked anger in some Yangon
business circles.

The government announced in February it would sell 256 gas stations to
private companies. Tay Za, who is the chairman of the recently formed Fuel
Oil Importers and Distributors Association (FOIDA) and already has the
contract to operate state-run stations in northern Myanmar, is well placed
to buy the stations. The vice chairman of the FOIDA is Aung Thet Mann, son
of junta number three and armed forces joint chief of staff General Thura
Shwe Mann.

It is unlikely however that the privatizations will extend to the
state-owned MOGE and it remains unclear how the oil and gas operations
will be operated under the new government that will take over after
elections late this year. Analysts believe it is unlikely that the
generals would allow a new minister to drastically alter the current
revenue arrangements. This will be a problem for any new regime as it bids
to manage more effectively - and hopefully transparently - the economy.

Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached
at brianpm at comcast.net.

____________________________________

May 6, Irrawaddy
Pre-paid SIM card sales drop after bombings - Wai Moe

The pre-paid mobile phone SIM card market in Burma has decreased as
authorities restrict sales of pre-paid cards without a proper ID and
address, following the deadly Rangoon bomb blasts on April 15, sources in
Rangoon said.

“Police have some evidence about the bomb blasts that a bomb was rigged to
be set off by a pre-paid mobile phone,” said a government official in
Rangoon who asked for anonymity.

“After the blasts, authorities ordered pre-paid phone vendors not to sell
to anyone without an ID card,” he said.

Following further restrictions in mid-April, the pre-paid phone market was
temporarily halted and prices increased, according to businessmen who sell
SIM cards.

“Before the bomb blasts, one pre-paid SIM card was 24,000 kyat (US $24).
But now the same SIM card is around 26,000 kyat ($26),” said a Rangoon
businessman. The official SIM card price is Foreigner Exchanger
Certificate (FEC) 20 or 20,000 kyat, but the actual market price is
higher.

Previously, regulations called for pre-paid SIM card customers to provide
an ID and address. However, many SIM card vendors failed to follow
regulations.

The Burmese junta launched the pre-paid card service in late 2008 in
collaboration with Myanmar Post and Telecommunication and Central
Marketing Company, a subsidiary of the  Htoo Group of Companies, owned by
Burmese businessman Tay Za.

The bomb blasts on April 15 killed at least 10 people and injured more
than 170. No one has claimed responsibility for the bombings.

Burmese police chief Brig-Gen Khin Yi claimed at a press conference in
Naypyidaw on Thursday that an exile group, the Vigorous Burmese Student
Warriors, as responsible. He said one person is in custody.

Khin Yi said the government will enact an anti-terrorism law in two or
three months to combat terrorist activities in the country. The military
regime has planned to issue an anti-terrorism law since 2009, ahead of the
election to be held later this year.
Responding to the junta’s anti-terrorism law, exiled dissident groups said
various government agencies themselves could be behind of bomb blasts as a
way to suppress the dissident movement and to pass a strict anti-terrorism
law.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 6, Irrawaddy
Quintana says conditions not present for credible elections

The United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Burma, Tomás Ojea
Quintana, said on Wednesday that the Burmese military government has not
established the conditions necessary for a credible election and urged the
junta to release all political prisoners in advance of the election.

“The Government of Myanmar [Burma] has not yet responded to pleas from
inside and outside the country for conditions that allow credible
elections,” Quintana said in a UN press release.
Tomas Ojea Quintana from Argentina, Special Rapporteur on the Situation of
Human Rights in Burma. (Photo: AP)

“These elections are important for the people of Myanmar [Burma] and
provide an opportunity for real improvement in the human rights situation.
However, the government needs to ensure that these elections are
credible—they must be open to full participation, they must be
transparent, and they must be conducted in a manner that allows for free
and fair choice by the people of Myanmar [Burma],” he said.

One of the main obstacles to a free and fair election with full
participation is the fact that more than 2,000 political
prisoners—including Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma's main
opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), and members of
the 88 Generation Students—are held in prisons across Burma, and the
election laws forbid all of them from taking part in the election.

Quintana said that the release of prisoners of conscience would allow
political parties that have decided against participation to reconsider,
and would facilitate the active participation of all citizens in Burma's
first election since 1990.

After his last visit to Burma earlier this year, however, Quintana
reported to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva that political prisoners
in Burma are not expected to be released ahead of the polls.

Bo Kyi, the joint-secretary of Assistance Association for Political
Prisoners in Burma, agreed that prisoners should be released but is not
optimistic.

“All the political prisoners should be released so that they can take part
in the political process,” Bo Kyi said. “I don't anticipate general
amnesty for the prisoners before the elections. But perhaps only a small
number of prisoners who have almost served their terms would be freed just
for show.”

Quintana said in the UN press release that the election laws do include
some provisions for fair elections, such as the counting of votes in each
polling station in the presence of the candidates, or their nominated
agents, and members of the public.

But election commission decisions regarding political party activity are
unchallengeable in any court of law, and Quintana expressed concern that
the absolute powers granted to the election commission could impede the
activities of political parties unless the Government guaranteed it would
allow full freedom of expression and assembly.

The UN press release came the day before the Burmese election registration
deadline, after which any political party that does not register will be
dissolved. The NLD has already decided to face party dissolution rather
than accept the Burmese regime's controversial election laws and 2008
Constitution.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 6, Irrawaddy
Remembering the NLD - Moe Zaw Oo

It was  a morning in September 1988. I held a white membership card signed
by Aung San Suu Kyi. I was so happy and proud. I said to myself, “Now,
I've become a member of the National League for Democracy.”

Now, 22 years later, the party that I committed myself will cease to exist
as a legal entity, and I find myself in exile, recalling days past and
dreaming about new ways to keep the party alive.

Born in popular democratic uprisings led by Burmese students, the NLD has
traveled a long and difficult road searching for democracy. Its members
were sometimes attacked and killed and many, including me, received long
prison sentences.

Politics is a matter of belief. When our belief in democracy was blocked
by a military coup in 1988, young freedom fighters underwent a critical,
decisive moment to decide how to carry on.

Many students chose armed struggle and went to border areas to join the
ethnic armed groups while others chose to remain inside the country to
continue overt or covert political activities.

Without hesitation, I chose to be a member of the NLD. My decision was
influenced by the leadership of  Suu Kyi. At the time, when my country
badly needed a good leader, she, as a daughter of Gen Aung San, gained the
trust of the people, including the support from the various groups that
made up the 8-8-8-8 movement.

As an NLD youth leader, I had opportunities to work closely with Suu Kyi.
I learned about her non-violent political strategy: civil disobedience
against unjust laws. She taught me not to fear; instead, she showed me the
way to drive fear out.

Suu Kyi is a woman of common sense. She uses very simple words with clear
meaning. When we were in meetings, she always raised questions, starting
with “why?” At first, I thought she might not be able to speak Burmese
well, as she had lived abroad for a long time. But she is articulate in
Burmese.

Travelling extensively from northernmost Kachin State to southernmost
Tenansserim Division, Suu Kyi mobilized the people’s power, facing
challenges at various points. My admiration for her courage reinforced my
commitment and confidence in the NLD.

Her civil disobedience activities were designed to pressure the junta to
engage in a dialogue and to seek a political solution, but each time she
ended up under house arrest.

Many more NLD members were arrested and many more fled to border areas. I
hoped that Suu Kyi would come back one day to again lead the NLD. I
believed it was my responsibility to wait and do what I could do.

The NLD went into a second phase without Suu Kyi, and it made the
difficult decision to contest the 1990 election on September 25, 1989,
while its key leaders were under detention. Kyi Maung, an ex-colonel and
member of Gen Ne Win’s Revolutionary Council, emerged as a key leader who
brought the party to a landslide victory in the election.

I had opportunities to work with Kyi Maung, and I became a member of his
election campaign team, working on his community outreach activities to
meet the voters in his constituency in Bahan Township in Rangoon.

Kyi Maung was an advocate of military professionalism and an opponent of
the military’s involvement in politics. During one organizational trip, he
told me that when he was a colonel, he was accused of being a mercenary by
fellow military leaders because of his views on the role of military.

The NLD, which contested in the 1990 election, became a political melting
pot where  different strata of society such as politicians, intellectuals,
ex-military commanders, artists, businessmen, technicians and even
community leaders could easily mix.

After winning the elections, the NLD faced a new challenge regarding the
military's transfer of power. The NLD members-elect of parliament gathered
at Gandhi Hall and called for convening the parliament.

At this time, I was singled out and sentenced to ten years in prison for
my political activities.

The NLD's third phase was marked when the party agreed to follow
Notification No. 1/90 of the State Law and Order Restoration Council,
which stipulated that the transfer of power should be carried out on the
basis of a constitution and that a national convention should be held to
draw the constitution.

The junta pressured the NLD to oust Suu Kyi from the party. The then NLD
leadership agreed on the grounds of the party’s survival. I was saddened
to hear the news while in prison.

Win Tin, one of the NLD’s founding leaders who is very close to Suu Kyi,
was at that time detained in the same building as I was in Insein Prison.

Win Tin was then a politician with a strong, moral courage, as he is
today. He led political activities from inside the prison and worked to
keep morale high among political prisoners. He was initially sentenced to
three years in 1989, but because of his activities, he was tried by
military courts and given an accumulative sentence of 20 years.

Win Tin initiated a “Suu-Hlut-Twayt” policy; “Suu” referred to the release
of  Suu Kyi and all political prisoners, “Hlut” for convening of Hluttaw
(parliament) and “Twayt” for dialogue.

We even conceived an idea to form a parallel NLD structure, to establish a
new network called “Struggle League for Democracy (SLD)” which would be
composed of youth members, NLD organizers and members-elect of parliament.

When Suu Kyi was released in 1995, she regained her NLD position and again
led the party. Her leadership led to a change: the NLD walked out of the
National Convention. At that time, the NLD clearly understood that it had
no chance of gaining a political solution through the National Convention.


>From then on, the fourth NLD phase began, following from the formation of

the Committee Representing People's Parliament (CRPP) in 1998 up to the
Depayin incident in May 2003. Suu Kyi narrowly escaped that attack, but
dozens of NLD members and supporter were killed and hundreds more detained
across the country.

When I was released in 1999, I met with Suu Kyi several times at party
headquarters. One time, referring to the example of South Africa's
apartheid struggle which took almost a century, she told me that our
struggle would be life-long and that we should prepare for that.   one
year later, she was again detained under house arrest.

The last time I saw her was before the Depayin incident. After her second
release, she seemed confident that peaceful change would eventually come
through a meaningful dialogue. But everything changed after the Depayin
incident. All NLD branch offices were shut down. The NLD seemed to have
little political activities, and it fell silent.

However, Suu Kyi and other detained senior leaders were quietly
negotiating with the junta out of the public eye. According to a senior
party leader, the outcome of the negotiation process was that Suu Kyi
would be released on April 17 (Burmese New Year's Day) 2004 and the NLD
would rejoin the National Convention.

It fell through at the last minute, however, and the fate of our country
grown darker since then.

My hope rose again with the release of Win Tin and his active
re-engagement with the NLD. The party became more active, but the recent
political party registration law pushed the party into a corner. The NLD
had to make its “life or death” decision on whether to re-register and
contest the election. It chose not to register and participate in the
election.

Beyond all the debate about the NLD, I am deeply worried about the future.
After May 6, I hope to see  the NLD flag remain at party headquarters, as
a symbol of the party and the movement.

After May 6, the sixth stage of the NLD begins. The NLD headquarters may
be shut down by force. The flag and signboards may be pulled down.

History clearly tells us that Burma’s political organizations come and go,
rise and fall, and eventually rest in history. The Anti-Fascist People's
Freedom League lasted about 14 years  (1945-1962). The Burma Socialist
Programme Party lasted about 17 years (1971-1988).

The NLD survived for 22 years. I strongly believe that the NLD structure
will somehow continue to exist and its spirit will survive. It will
continue its struggle against the challenges the country faces.

Although I am now in exile, I still hold my membership card with Suu Kyi's
signature. My personal attachment to the NLD is deeply rooted in my heart.
I will belong to the NLD in whatever situation it finds itself.

I agree with Daw Suu, when she said, “Nobody owns the NLD.” But at the
same time, we all own the NLD. It simply belongs to this age, the
democracy movement and Burmese society.

Moe Zaw Oo was an NLD youth leader in 1988 and is currently joint
secretary 2 of the National League for Democracy (Liberated Area) based on
the Thai-Burma border.

____________________________________

May 6, Irrawaddy
We must deny the military regime in Burma the legitimacy it craves - Mitch
Mcconnell

Today I rise to introduce a bill that would renew sanctions against the
Burmese junta. As in years past, I am joined in this effort by my good
friend, Senator Feinstein. Senators McCain, Durbin, Gregg and Lieberman
are original cosponsors of this bipartisan legislation and continue to be
leaders on the issue.

Renewing sanctions against the military regime in Burma is as timely and
important as ever. Over the past year, the regime has not only made clear
that it has no intention of reforming; it is also trying to stand up a new
sham constitution and to legitimize itself in the eyes of the world
through a sham election. In my view, the US must deny the regime that
legitimacy.

By way of background, a little history is in order. For nearly half a
century, Burma has been under some kind of military rule and every popular
effort to reverse that situation has failed. In 1988, military authorities
violently put down a popular uprising. Two years later, the Burmese people
went to the polls and handed an overwhelming victory to the pro-democracy
opposition, and the junta ignored the results. It never seated these
popularly elected candidates. It jailed pro-democracy leaders like Aung
San Suu Kyi. And it has maintained its brutal rule ever since.

In response to these events, the United States established on a bipartisan
basis various sanctions against the Burmese regime. These include a 1997
executive order; the annual import ban which has been renewed annually
since 2003; and restrictions on Burmese jade, which were enacted in 2008.

On a number of occasions since 1990 the U.S. and the UN have attempted to
engage Burma diplomatically.

These include, during the Clinton Administration, a delegation led by
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Hubbard; various efforts by
former U.S. ambassador to the UN, Madeleine Albright; and two trips to
Burma by then Congressman Bill Richardson in the mid-1990s.

Other diplomatic efforts included Assistant Secretary of State Christopher
Hill's “road map” in 2006; and overtures made by the US through China in
2007. And in 2008, Admiral Timothy Keating met with Burmese officials as
part of US efforts to provide humanitarian assistance in the wake of
Cyclone Nargis.

The UN, for its part, has dispatched a human rights envoy to Burma 15
times and special envoys 26 times over the past two decades. And UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has visited Burma on two occasions.

None of these efforts has yielded anything in the way of reform. Indeed,
when Burmese citizens, led by Buddhist monks, took to the streets in
peaceful protest against the government and its policies in the fall of
2007, these pro-democracy protestors, much like their predecessors, were
brutally suppressed.

Nonetheless, the regime has sought at various times to save face
internationally. In response to this last major challenge to its authority
in the fall of 2007, for example, the regime unveiled a proposed
constitution.

But a quick look at the document shows that it could scarcely have been
less democratic. It precluded Suu Kyi from participating in the electoral
process and ensured that the charter may not be amended without the
military's blessing. The noted constitutional law professor, David
Williams, of Indiana University, told the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee last year it was one of the worst constitutions [he has] ever
seen.

What's more, the vote to adopt this constitution took place two years ago
in the immediate aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, the worst natural disaster
in modern Burmese history, and international election observers were not
permitted access to the country during the vote. If the regime was really
interested in legitimacy, holding a vote like this in the middle of a
natural disaster without election observers is not the way to do it.

So the results of this vote were roundly condemned, and for good reason.
Still, despite widespread condemnation of this constitution and the
circumstances surrounding its adoption, some held out hope that a
subsequent election law might lead to democratic reform. But those hopes
were dashed earlier this year when the regime actually issued the
long-awaited election law. Among other things, the law would force the
Democratic opposition, the National League for Democracy, to expel Suu Kyi
if the party chose to enter any of its candidates in the upcoming national
election and it forbids political prisoners and Buddhist monks from
political participation.

The deadline for registering candidates and political parties under the
new law is later this week, and parties that fail to register before then
will be deemed illegal. In other words, the law's practical effect would
be to sideline Burma's most prominent Democratic reformer and force its
leading opposition party out of business.

We also get periodic press reports of ties between Burma and North Korea,
including a particularly alarming report in recent days about an alleged
weapons transfer from Pyongyang.

Now, last year, the Obama Administration initiated a review of US policy
with respect to Burma. As a result of that review, the administration
decided it was time for the US to take another run at engaging the regime.
That's why last summer, Secretary Clinton reportedly proposed to her
Burmese counterpart at an international conference in Southeast Asia that
the U.S. remove its investment ban on Burma in exchange for the
unconditional release of Suu Kyi. Whatever the merits of this overture,
this was a serious offer from a high-ranking US official aimed at
improving bilateral relations.

Yet not only was Secretary Clinton's offer ignored and Suu Kyi not freed,
the regime actually extended Suu Kyi's detention for another year and a
half. And several months later the junta denied her appeal. It was shortly
after that that the regime released the anti-democratic election law I
just referred to. So however well intentioned, the administration's policy
of engagement has unfortunately met with the same fate as earlier
engagement efforts, notwithstanding the fig leaves the regime occasionally
holds out as supposed proof of its willingness to reform.

Clearly, the regime craves legitimization of its rule. Why else would it
suddenly move to finalize the constitution it had been working on
intermittently for 14 years after its rule was challenged by the
nonviolent Saffron Revolution in the fall of 2007? They did it for the
same reason they trotted out a transparently flawed election law earlier
this year: they wanted to provide the appearance of reform where there was
none. But they can't have it both ways. If the regime wants
legitimization, it must show real progress.

Secretary Clinton's policy review toward Burma concluded that engagement
along with sanctions might produce results where sanctions alone had
failed. Although we have yet to see any positive results from engagement,
the administration itself concedes that sanctions should remain in place.
But the administration, to its credit, has been quite candid about the
lack of tangible progress by the regime.

Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell acknowledged as much after the
release of the Burmese election law. The US approach, he said, was to try
to encourage domestic dialogue between the key stakeholders and the recent
promulgation of the election criteria doesn't leave much room for such a
dialogue. It should be noted parenthetically the absence of any tangible
result from engagement has nothing to do with work of American diplomats.
It has everything to do with the type of regime we're dealing with in
Burma. But again, the fact remains that no progress has been made.

Legitimacy is the one thing the regime cannot impose by force. But if
legitimacy is what it wants, a first step would be credible elections. And
at this point there is no reason to believe that that's even possible
under the current constitution, under the current election law, and in the
current political climate in Burma.

So renewing sanctions is important because it denies the junta the
legitimacy it so craves. A sanctions regime says to the junta and the
world in no uncertain terms that the United States does not view this
government as having the support of its citizenry. It says that the United
States will not be a party to recognizing the junta's attempt to overturn
the democratic elections of 1990, the last true expression of the Burmese
voters. Sanctions should remain in place against the junta for the same
reason the term Burma is used by friends of democracy instead of the
junta's chosen name of Myanmar because Myanmar is the name of a government
that has not been chosen by its people.

In short, sanctions should remain in place because lifting sanctions would
give the regime precisely what it wants; namely, legitimacy.

I strongly urge my colleagues to support sanctions renewal against the
Burmese regime. And I ask unanimous consent that the text of the joint
resolution be printed in the Record.

____________________________________

May 6, The Independent
Christophe de Margerie: 'It is not oil or the environment, it's oil and
the environment'

But the Gulf of Mexico oil spill will give opponents yet more ammunition
with which to attack the industry, Total chief executive tells Sarah
Arnott

Christophe de Margerie is a well-known character in the oil industry. The
chief executive of Total – known affectionately among staff as "Big
Moustaches" – is renowned for his straight talking, his approachability
and his off-beat sense of humour. But even the ebullience of Mr de
Margerie is dampened by the scale of the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico,
where its rival BP is fighting to fix the 25,000-gallons-per-day oil spill
threatening the American coastline. "I shouldn't even smile," Mr de
Margerie says with real sympathy. "Look at [BP boss] Tony Hayward's face.
It is a disaster and he knows it."

Belying its reputation for cut-throat competition, the whole industry is
on stand-by to offer any help it can. Total's nearby Matterhorn rig was
used as a staging post for evacuated people caught in the explosion on the
Deepwater Horizon that killed 11 of their colleagues two weeks ago.

And the French supermajor is also closely involved in the local pollution
control co-operatives that the industry runs precisely for such crises.

There is no question that BP is doing everything possible to stop the
spill, Mr de Margerie says. "Frankly, we all admire BP technically. The
real thing today is to stop the leakage and there is nothing anyone can do
more than BP can do."

But the damage to the oil industry will not be over when the leak is
finally plugged, the last damages paid, and the last sea bird washed
clean. "When something like this happens it is bad news for all of us and
the whole industry is hurt," Mr de Margerie says, gazing resignedly from
his 44th-floor office windows to the streets of Paris's La Défense below.

The big danger is not only from falling stock prices and the rumblings
from US President Barack Obama about suspending plans to open up new
acreage in the Gulf of Mexico. The real harm will be to the reputation of
a highly unpopular industry. On the issue of reputation, Mr de Margerie
knows what he is talking about. As Europe's third-largest oil company,
with net income of €7.8bn (£6.6bn) last year and interests in some of the
trickiest places in the world, Total has long been a whipping boy for
critics of big oil, lambasted by green campaigners and pro-democracy
groups alike.

The Total chief executive himself could not be further from the amoral,
buccaneering oil boss of stereotypes.

Mr de Margerie is softly spoken, even gentle, with a ready twinkle in his
eye and a reputation for rubbing shoulders as easily with doormen as with
Saudi princes. He is an expert on the Middle East, having passed on a job
with Taittinger – the family champagne company – to join the oil industry
in 1974. Famously bad at time-keeping, he draws embarrassed attention to
his office clockface emblazoned with the question "who cares?"

The answer, at least when it comes to global energy supplies, is that Mr
de Margerie cares a great deal. And he is keen to tackle critics head on.
"We have to [be] realistic," he says, stressing "realistic", rather than
"pragmatic".

Realism means facing up to the fact that oil may be a dirty business, but
it is unavoidable. "The world is desperate for energy," he says. "That
doesn't mean we are against a reduction in consumption, or that we are
against producing cleaner products, or that we are not part of [the] fight
against climate change." He dismisses environmental arguments as "stupid"
– not because the environment is not a concern, but because the
us-and-them dynamic is a distraction from the more nuanced discussion
needed about global energy demands. "It is not oil or the environment, it
is oil and the environment," he says with feeling. "We are living in the
same world. We are not enemies. We have to be frank – but frank in a nice
way – so people understand the impact of what they are deciding."

Vast sums of money are being spent on developing alternatives to fossil
fuels. For Total, the focus is on solar, biomass, and carbon capture and
storage technology to clean up coal-fired power production. The group is
also moving into the nuclear sector, although a recent bid in the United
Arab Emirates was beaten by the South Koreans. But nothing will be a
substitute for oil.

"Fossil fuels will not be enough on their own, it will only be the
combination that will make it."

Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico spill will make the case even harder to
make. "We are always on the verge of having something like this spill to
face," Mr de Margerie says.

"But until we can say this will never happen again it will be difficult to
change our image, because some people who are more than happy to use
fossil fuel products still do not accept the possible damage."

Green groups are not Big Oil's only opponents. Total also faces sharp
criticism for its involvement in politically difficult countries such as
Burma and Sudan. Mr de Margerie is unapologetic. "We are driven by where
the oil is," he says.

He also stresses that the company is not entirely passive. In Burma, for
example, Total has expressed public disapproval of the treatment of Aung
San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy leader under house arrest. The company also
has responsibilities, Mr de Margerie says. Once involved in a country, it
is not easy to pull out. The group's Burmese assets, for example, not only
provide much-needed gas for Thai power stations but also offer stable
employment and community programmes for local Burmese people. "We think
that we are adding more in being present than being not present," Mr de
Margerie says.

The overriding priority is to provide affordable energy supplies, in
response to demand. "We don't go to new places for fun or to be
provocative." Rather, it is a question of responsibility. "We have to be
careful because if one day the world is short of energy, it will be our
responsibility. Everybody will ask Total, why don't you have more oil?"

Recent events in France are emblematic of the contradictions confronting
the industry. In February, Total faced week-long strikes at its six French
refineries in response to plans to close the facility at Dunkirk. The
fracas is now smoothed over, but only by a government-brokered deal under
which the company guaranteed to keep its remaining five refineries open
for another five years.

Mr de Margerie is careful to stress that he has no real beef with the
trade unions, whose job it is to fight for their members' interests. But
the government should be focusing on the bigger picture, he says, or else
no one can. "I don't want to appear to be complaining," he says. "But it
is difficult when people are telling you to produce less and be cleaner,
and then when you do it you are told that you can't change anything but
must keep refinery capacity the way it was."

As the battle to contain the spill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to
dominate the headlines, it is hard to imagine the oil industry will ever
rid itself of the taint.

Mr de Margerie says the business needs acceptance. "Will we ever be loved?
No," he says. "But can we be accepted? Yes. It is easy? No. Will it take
time? Certainly. But is that a reason to stop what we are doing?
Absolutely not."

CV: Christophe de Margerie
Chief executive of Total

Education
Mr de Margerie joined Total in 1974 after graduation from the Ecole
Supérieure de Commerce in Paris

Work
2007–present Chief executive of Total
2002-7 President of Total's exploration and production division
2000-2 Senior executive vice president of exploration and production,
TotalFinaElf
1995-9 President of Total Middle East

Home
Mr de Margerie is married with three grown up children and lives in Paris
He is a keen gardener

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/christophe-de-margerie-it-is-not-oil-or-the-environment-its-oil-and-the-environment-1964402.html