BurmaNet News, May 18, 2010

[Editor]

May 18, 2010, Issue #3964

INSIDE BURMA
Narinjara: Burma after Nargis: pathetic story continues
Myanmar Times: In Dala, residents rely on volunteers for water
Myanmar Times: A world away from politics
Mizzima: Kungyankone robbers kill two, wound 13
KNG: Ethnic armed groups, locals to enforce relocation of Myitsone villagers

ON THE BORDER
SHAN: Tensions easing on the eastern front

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Gold selling well in Burma, despite high prices
Xinhua: China, Myanmar sign cooperation accords on building road
TendersInfo: Myanmar: Essar wins prestigious infrastructure project in
Myanmar

DRUGS
Times of India: ISI will not let Dawood return to India

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima: UK coalition may listen closer to Burma issues: activists

OPINION / OTHER
Jakarta Globe: Burma-North Korea Ties Worry the World - Andrew Selth
DVB: Ban Ki Moon must stand tall – Bo Kyi
Irrawaddy: Post-election threats to ethnic areas - Katrina Winters

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 18, Narinjara News
Burma after Nargis: Pathetic story continues - Nava Thakuria

While the military rulers of Burma (Myanmar) has prepared its plan for the
projected general election some time later this year anticipating
international appreciation, millions of poor Burmese are still living in
terrible conditions in the Nargis affected areas, with many without pure
drinking water and food or proper shelter. Despite the fact that two full
years passed since the devastating tropical cyclone Nargis struck Burma on
May 2, 2008, the relief from international agencies, originally blocked by
the junta, remains sporadic, paltry and tragically late.

The cyclone, originating in the Bay of Bengal, ripped a trail of
destruction across the Irrawaddy and Rangoon divisions and also ravaged
parts of the Bago, Mon and Kayin regions. A water wall of four meters high
is said to have rolled some 25 miles inland across the Irrawaddy River
Valley, flattening everything in its path.

Although the military government reported the final death toll as 84,537,
with 53,836 missing, independent estimates are that 140,000 were killed
and tens of thousands more have never been found. The cyclone devastated
the already spavined social infrastructure, and wiped out paddy fields,
which at the time were being readied for the country's primary rice crop.

The devastation was almost unimaginable. The United Nations estimated that
Nargis affected 2.4 million people and rendered tens of thousands of
families homeless. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates
nearly 300,000 water buffalo and cows, 7,500 goats, 65,000 pigs, 1.5
million chicken and ducks were killed. It also laid waste to most of fish
ponds, hatcheries and shrimp farms in the localities.

Nearly 1000,000 acres of farmland in the Irrawaddy and 300,000 acres in
Rangoon were destroyed. More than 800 000 houses were wrecked in addition
to schools and hospitals.

Frightened that massive numbers of foreign aid workers in their country
might create trouble for them, not only did the ruling State Peace and
Development Council seek to hide the numbers of casualties, the junta also
initially prevented international aid workers from entering the country.
International agencies and local donors were stopped from entering the
affected areas and delivering the aid that was meant for hundreds of
thousands of people in jeopardy.

The UN itself admits that it would need around $500 million to ensure
long-term recovery for the affected Burmese people. Its humanitarian
coordinator in Burma, Bishow Parajuli has recently disclosed that the
recovery effort deserved nearly US$691 million for a three-year plan, but
only $180 million could have been raised from international donors.

Parajuli claimed some success on shelter, schools, agriculture inputs,
health care and disaster awareness programs among the survivors, but
admitted that the progress was slowing down because of the lack of
funding. He estimated that over 100,000 families still need to rebuild
their homes and around 180,000 people face acute water shortages.

____________________________________

May 17 - 23, Myanmar Times
In Dala, residents rely on volunteers for water - Sandar Lwin

Prolonged drought has dried out nearly all the rainwater pools in Dala
township, Yangon Division, forcing residents to rely on supplies brought
in by volunteers.

As the region marks its fortieth day of 38 Celsius-plus temper-atures, the
delay in the onset of the rainy season has only worsened the effects of
the heat wave.

More than 90 percent of residents of Dala, which is located on the
opposite bank of the Yangon River to downtown Yangon, rely on freshwater
ponds for clean drinking water.

When the rainwater collecting in ponds dries out seasonally, local
residents say they use fresh water brought across from Yangon by motor
boat, as well as seawater and salty ground water.

“Water shortages are a serious problem these days. We have to spend K2000
for a 50-gallon (200-litre) barrel of fresh water carried from Yangon by
motor boat,” said Ko San Cho, from Banya Dala quarter in Dala township.

While water shortages occur every year in Dala, the severity of this
year’s hot season means the shortages are more acute than ever, residents
said. In response, teams of volunteers have formed to bring water from
villages in the area.

“[If the ponds are dry] we only get drinking water when the volunteers
bring it. Otherwise we have to buy salty water at K100 per six buckets,”
said one local from Ta Pin Shwe Htee quarter.

“The number of water donors sharply increase these days 
 now we are
totally reliant on the volunteer donors for drinking water,” Ma Nu Nu,
from Yar Za Thin Gyan quarter, said on May 13. “Those who already
connected to the Yangon City Development Committee water distribution
system share the water as much as they can.”

U Myint Winn has been distributing water in Dala’s Ta Pin Shwe Htee
quarter since the first week of May, when the dry spell really began to
affect water supplies. He brings the water to Dala from his village in his
farm vehicle.

“We come from Hla Ga Mone village, about eight miles (12.8 kilometres)
away from here, to donate fresh water. We volunteers just come and donate
because we heard about the shortages at Dala. About five groups of
volunteers from our village are donating water,” he said. The volunteers
have handed out tokens to help ensure fair distribution.

“The local fire brigade provides a water bowser, and we just have to pay
for the fuel. The donors get fresh water from Yangon City Development
Committee,” said U Winn Myint, another donor from Ta Pin Shwe Htee
quarter.

YCDC’s water and sanitation unit distributes fresh water to Dala from
Yangon Pauk village, about 14.5km away, through a pipeline system and with
two water bowsers.

According to official data, 2000 households out of a total of 20,900
households in the township are connected to the pipeline system. The rest
rely on the rainwater collecting ponds, since the ground water is too
salty to drink.

“Out of more than 40 rainwater collecting ponds in Dala, there is only one
that still has water,” said U Aye Phay, the chairman of maintenance
committee of Mahar Thin Gyan pond, which is the main source of the
township’s drinking water.
But even that pond has nearly dried up in the hot weather, which has been
as high as 41.5C in Yangon.

“There is only about eight inches (20cm) of water left in the pond now.
Now we’re distributing water only every other day, one case per person,” U
Tin Shwe, patron of the maintenance committee of Mahar Thin Gyan pond,
said on May 13.

“We have started collecting money from donors and arranging for private
cars to distribute fresh water,” he added.

“I have been waiting here for one case of drinking water since 6am. I have
to spend the whole day here and can’t do anything else,” said a woman
standing in the queue.

“The rainy season is very delayed this year. This is the first time ever
our pond has dried up. For the moment, we pump up the seawater that runs
into the nearby drainage channel when the tide is up. We wash in the
seawater and then with four or five cups of fresh water from the water
donation cars,” said a monk from Dala.

But the situation could be much worse, if it wasn’t for a water and
sanitation improvement program implemented by Aide Médicale International
(AMI), a non-government organisation from France, from 2002-2008. Under
the program, 385 concrete rainwater collectors and 393 iron tanks were
built, 40 ponds were dug and fenced, four more ponds were fenced and 300
clay pots and 3754 cement drums were distributed. More than 10,000
families received latrines, while water and sanitation systems were
installed at 40 schools and six hospitals.

____________________________________

May 17 - 23, Myanmar Times
A world away from politics

U HLA Win seems more interested in eating lunch than discussing politics.
The 70-year-old from Yay Dwin Gone, a village in Ayeyarwady Division’s
Dedaye township, says he has heard almost nothing about the parties that
will contest an election due later this year.

“We haven’t heard any news about the parties. I will surely vote. This is
my country. But I don’t know which party I should be supporting,” he says,
as he tucks into his rice and curry in his small hut.

U Hla Win says most of the residents of Yay Dwin Gone are similarly
unaware of developments “in the cities”, including the release of election
laws and formation of political parties.

The village of about 500 people is located on the Andaman Sea and most
people make their living from fishing and agriculture. Yay Dwin Gone’s
proximity to the ocean meant it was hit hard by the huge tidal surge of
Cyclone Nargis that killed at least 139,000 and left 2.4 million homeless.

Daw Ohn’s husband and daughter were among the 100 or so people in Yay Dwin
Gone who died in the storm. She is now the sole carer for her five
children, two of whom had to drop out of school because the family had run
out of money to pay for their education.

Daw Ohn says she is only aware of the upcoming election because the
authorities had contacted everyone in the village to collect household
registration forms and a photograph of each resident.

But she knows almost nothing of the political parties or the people behind
them.

“I know there will be an election but I don’t understand it. I will
probably just follow the majority [when I vote],” said Daw Ohn, 48.

In contrast to the sleepy atmosphere in Yay Dwin Gone, Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon
and Myanmar’s other major cities are busy with election fever, preparing
for the first polls in 20 years.

But the effect has been largely confined to urban areas. Political
columnist and veteran journalist Maung Wuntha says financial constraints
and poor distribution networks mean few journals and periodicals make it
into rural areas. Subsequently, knowledge of current affairs and even the
most basic political concepts is low.

“We need to start a public conversation about politics that will enable
people in rural areas to learn about the new political parties,” Maung
Wuntha told The Myanmar Times in a recent interview.

He said political parties needed to make efforts to reach rural
communities and present their policies and ideas through face-to-face
campaigning as well as newsletters, journals, television and radio
broadcasts.

He said accurate coverage of the political parties and the backgrounds of
their leaders was needed everywhere to help voters make informed decisions
at the ballot box.

“There will be people who actually believe in and understand democracy and
there will be opportunists who want to gain from the election. The media
needs to be faithful to the people and give the correct messages.”

Maung Wuntha said parties should work for a genuine democratic system,
guarantee basic human rights, prevent monopolies in local business sectors
and encourage both a free market and welfare state that provides cheap,
quality healthcare and education.

There is an expectation that the transition to democracy will lead to the
liberalisation of many sectors of the economy and, potentially, increased
economic development and opportunities. While Daw Ohn and U Hla Win were
unsure what to expect post-election, they said economic development was
the top priority for them.

“The important thing is having enough food,” said Daw Ohn, who works
casually as a paddy planter.

For residents of rural areas like Daw Ohn and Hla Win, reform in the
agriculture sector could make a major difference to their standard of
living – a point former World Bank chief economist Joseph Stiglitz
stressed at a Development Forum in Nay Pyi Taw in December. Similarly, Dr
Myint, a former economist with the United Nations Economic Development and
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP), told
reporters in Yangon in January Myanmar should “revitalise the rice
economy” and attempt to become a major exporter once again.

“Rice is the mainstay of the agricultural economy and provides livelihood
for the majority of farm families,” Dr Myint said. “Reintegration of the
rice farmer and the country’s rice industry into the world rice market
will provide incentives to increase both the quantity and quality of rice
and thereby leading to higher incomes and employment opportunities for the
rural community.

“Higher productivity, output, incomes and employment in the rice farming
sector will contribute to alleviating rural poverty and enhance greater
food security at home.” (Dr Myint declined to comment for this article.)

More reforms are also expected under a parliamentary democracy and it is
partly for this reason the Asian Development Bank has forecast GDP growth
to increase to 5.2 percent in 2010 and 5.5pc in 2011. “Projections for the
economy are based on assumptions 
 that a national election scheduled for
2010 will, at the very least, bring about a more conducive environment for
economic reforms, and that there will be no regression of the limited
reforms seen so far,” the ADB said in a recent report, Asian Development
Outlook 2010.

Professor Maw Than, a retired rector at the Yangon Institute of Economics,
said a “free and fair” election would assist in the development of the
economy and help raise living standards.

Investment and international assistance were largely dependent on the
international community’s perception of the election, he said.

“If the election is free and fair we can, for example, get soft loans from
the World Bank and other international financial institutions. If we get
this kind of loan and invest it in developing the country we don’t need to
share the benefits with other foreign investors,” Professor Maw Than said.
“I think there will also be a lifting of economic sanctions on Myanmar and
we’ll see more investment flowing into the country.”

Professor Maw Than said Myanmar needed foreign investment to develop and
utilise its natural resources.

____________________________________

May 18, Mizzima News
Kungyankone robbers kill two, wound 13 - Min Thet

Rangoon– Two residents died and 13 were wounded, some critically, by
gunfire and grenade blasts on Sunday when villagers gathered to foil armed
robbers who had invaded a home in Kungyankone Township, police and
residents said.

Five robbers, three of whom apparently wearing army uniforms, forced their
way into the home of farmer Thein Myint at 9:30 p.m. They beat her at
gunpoint and demanded one million Kyats after tying up her labourers.
Answering shouts from the bound labourers, villagers surrounded the house
in a bid to stop the robbery. In response, the robbers shot and lobbed
grenades into the crowd to make good their escape.

Villagers Moe Win, 26, and Thant Zaw, 23, died immediately in the
onslaught, a Rangoon Division police officer said.

Six other villagers including Thein Myint were critically injured and
admitted to Rangoon General Hospital and seven were taken to Kungyankone
Hospital, hospital sources said.

A Kungyankone administrative official told Mizzima the robbers had
apparently taken advantage of a local power blackout.

“The men showed up at about 9:30 p.m. when the village power generator had
stopped,” the official said. “At first the villagers didn’t realise their
usually peaceful village was being robbed 
 until they heard the farm
labourers’ shouts.”

Villagers said three of the robbers wore army uniforms but that police had
refused to comment on the issue.

“When we heard the shouting, we surrounded the house and Moe Win and Thant
Zaw tried to enter the house,” a villager said. “The robbers shot them and
lobbed grenades into the crowd. The two men were killed on the spot.”

The shootings and blasts took place at about 11 p.m., he said.

“The robbers then escaped through the back door and villagers carrying
torches chased them,” he added. “The robbers fired about 50 shots back at
their pursuers and lobbed more grenades during their getaway.”

____________________________________

May 18, Kachin News Group
Ethnic armed groups, locals to enforce relocation of Myitsone villagers

Adopting an aggressive posture on relocation, the junta has ordered the
militia and local people to force villagers to shift from near the
Irrawaddy Myitsone dam project site as of May 1.

The Kachin State Peace and Development Council (KSPDC) based in Myitkyina
the capital of Kachin State, released an order on May 1 telling all 58
quarters in the city to help out. Ten people from each quarter will work
on the relocation of the villagers.

The order stated that People’s Militia group also known as Lawyang and Gwi
Htu Militia groups transformed from former Lasang Awng Wa peace group, and
the Border Guard Force, which is transformed from the New Democratic Army
Kachin (NDA-K) led by Zahkung Ting Ying and the northern commander of the
military junta will be responsible for the security of these workers.

The workers are tasked with forcing the resident to relocate and if they
refuse they will pull down houses and churches.

More than 15,000 people are to be relocated for the dam project, said
environmentalists.

The leaders of two Kachin ethnic armed groups, which transformed to the
People’s Militia and BGF, Lasang Awng Wa and Zahkung Ting Ying have been
granted several business permits after they accepted the junta’s proposal
to toe its line on the transformation.

They are now permitted by the junta to plunder all natural resources,
including gold and timber from Myitsone to Shang Ngaw as of February this
year.

The two leaders signed agreements on February 8.

The junta has made new plans to relocate villagers after fresh Chinese dam
construction workers arrived after the serial blasts.

Over 600 houses for the Kachin villagers near Myitsone dam site to be
relocated were already constructed in Chyinghkrang Village, 14 miles north
of Myitkyina by Asia World Company. Photo: Kachin News Group.

At a meeting on May 16 in Tang Hpre village near Myitsone, 27 miles north
of Myitkyina it was decided to forcibly relocate residents, who refuse to
budge from their villages. The meeting was attended by the administrators
of Myitkyina and Waingmaw townships, villagers said.

Four Kachin villages close to the dam site --- Tang Hpre, N-gan, Dawng Pan
and Gwi Htau are to be forcibly relocated but the regime is yet to
announce the deadline, said residents.

At least 27 bombs exploded in Myitsone Irrawaddy dam construction site on
April 17 killing four and injuring more than 12 Chinese workers. The
workers fled to mainland China in the wake of the blasts.

There was severe damage to the main office of the Asia World Company.

The junta arrested and interrogated hundreds of people including almost
all villagers from Tang Hpre village after the blasts.

On May 1 the regime in Kachin State released Red Posters announcing
rewards to anyone providing information about the perpetrators of the
blasts. It offered 5 million kyats (US$5,102), a CDMA phone and plot of
land.

A sketch of the bomb blast suspect was released by No. 1 Police Station in
Myitkyina on April 20 and at least 48 people with similarities to the
sketch were detained.

The Myitsone hydropower project officially got off the ground on December
21, last year and is being jointly implemented by Burma’s Asia World
Company, Ministry of Electric Power 1 of the junta and China owned China
Power Investment Corporation (CPI). It will produce an estimated 6,000 MW
of electricity to be sold to China.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

May 18, Shan Herald Agency for News
Tensions easing on the eastern front

While reinforcements by the Wa and Burma Army along the front continue,
the atmosphere of urgency has perceptibly lightened, and things are
returning to “almost normal,” according to a report by an informed source
on the Sino-Burma border.

“The tone from Naypyitaw is soft and relaxing rather than being imperative
which had been the case until 28 April (the last day of the latest
deadline given to the ceasefire groups to agree to the Border Guard Force
program),” the source who prefers to remain anonymous wrote.

[Photo Caption: Public places in the Wa capital are busy as usual and even
busier at nighttime, according to him. Hotels keep receiving clients and
restaurants, including those owned by ethnic Burmans, are found to be
busier.]

Traffic between Panghsang and the Burma Army controlled town of Tangyan,
115 miles west of Panghsang, have also become busier. “Inflows of vehicles
are even causing traffic jams in the town’s busy areas,” he said.

While new arrivals especially Burmans, undergo intense scrutiny by the Wa
authorities, he also saw many Burmans working in automobile workshops and
construction projects. “In fact, Burman people who have stayed in
Panghsang for several years and running small businesses like street
vendors or small restaurants are well treated by the Wa authorities,” he
said.

The situation in Mongla, the capital of the Wa’s southern ally, National
Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), is also reportedly normal.

A separate report coming from the Thai-Burma border, where the United Wa
State Army’s 171st Military Region is active, also appears to support his
story. “The Wa villagers who were conspicuously absent from the local
markets since 28 April are coming back,” said a shopkeeper in Pongpakhem,
10 miles north of the Chiangmai border.

However, the relaxed atmosphere does not seem to be pervading areas near
the frontlines like Klawng Pa, Na Wi and Man Ton. International aid
agencies, including the Global Fund, staffed mainly by Chinese, are facing
limitations of access in those localities, the source said.

The UWSA and NDAA, together with the bulk of the Shan State Army (SSA)
North and Kachin Independence Army (KIA), have remained defiant of the BGF
program until their autonomy calls are answered by Naypyitaw.

No reason for the easing of tensions was given but, according to another
report, the SSA North’s First Brigade was reportedly requested by junta
authorities in Kehsi township on 15 May to maintain the uneasy truce
“until the elections are over.”

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 18, Irrawaddy
Gold selling well in Burma, despite high prices

With world market prices for gold at an all-time high, Chinese traders are
rushing to Burma, where the precious metal is cheaper than in neighboring
countries, according to sources.

The price of gold in Burma has reportedly reached 643,000 kyat (US $659)
per kyattha (about 0.016 kg), or $1,168 per ounce—the highest price in two
decades.

But even at this price, gold in Burma is a bargain compared to other
countries in the region. Gold merchants in Mandalay say that this has
attracted the attention of foreign traders, especially from China.

“Burmese gold from Rangoon and Mandalay has been exported to China via
Lashio and Muse. Sales have been good because one kyattha is more than
10,000 kyat less than the price on the international market,” said a
Muse-based gold dealer close to the Myanmar Gold Entrepreneurs
Association.

Thai traders are also said to be purchasing gold from Burma, coming to the
border area via Moulmein and Myawaddy.

According to Burmese dealers, gold is relatively cheap in the country
because exchange rates favor foreign buyers.

Another factor, they said, is government pressure to keep prices under
control.

Traders have been warned to limit price increases, but they say this is
difficult to do because the rapid rise is driven by international demand.

“If we don't let the price go up now, gold from inside Burma will all
leave for neighboring countries via border routes,” said a gold trader
from Mandalay.

Traders in Mandalay said that there are almost no Burmese buying gold
jewelry at the moment. Instead, many locals are selling their gold to take
advantage of higher prices.

The financial crisis in Greece, and the resulting uncertainty in Europe,
has pushed the gold price up to record highs.

On Friday, the American price of the precious metal hit a record high of
$1,250 an ounce.

____________________________________

May 18, Xinhua
China, Myanmar sign cooperation accords on building road, Wharf – Zhang Jin

China and Myanmar reached a memorandum of understanding in Nay Pyi Taw
Tuesday on cooperation in development of Ruili-Kyaukphyu China-Myanmar
platform road project.

The MoU was signed by visiting Chinese Transport Minister Li Seng Lin and
Myanmar Construction Minister U Khin Maung Myint.

Another contract was also signed on Hteedan Wharf construction project in
Yangon, the report said.

Before the signing, First Secretary of the State Peace and Development
Council General Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo met with the Chinese
transport minister.

 ____________________________________

May 18, TendersInfo
Myanmar: Essar wins prestigious infrastructure project in Myanmar

Essar Projects Ltd. today signed a contract with the Ministry of External
Affairs, Government of India to execute Port and Inland Water Transport
components of the Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Transport Project to be
executed in Myanmar.

The contract involves the construction of two jetties at Sittwe and
Paletwa in Myanmar, dredging and construction of cargo barges etc. to
facilitate cargo movement along the river Kaladan. The construction of a
port at Sittwe is a major component of the contract.
This project is being executed by the Government of India under a
Framework Agreement between the two countries to ease the movement of
goods from mainland India to the North-Eastern states of India. The route
will offer an alternate access to the North East and therefore is
strategically also important. It will also, in turn, help Myanmar develop
its infrastructure and port facilities for accelerated development of the
country.
The multimodal transit transport project has a component of a 120-km road,
also to be constructed in Myanmar from the river terminal to the
Indo-Myanmar border. The construction of the road will be taken up under a
separate contract. The present contract for Port & Water Transport is
worth Rs. 342 crores and the same is to be executed within 36 months.

A formal contract was signed by Mr. T.S. Tirumurti, Joint Secretary,
Ministry of External Affairs on behalf of the Government of India and Mr.
Vishwesha K Bhat, Vice President, Ports and Jetties, Essar Projects India
Ltd.

____________________________________
DRUGS

May 19, Times of India
ISI will not let Dawood return to India - S Balakrishnan

Mumbai - From being a retail extortionist to being the third most wanted
don of the world, Dawood Ibrahim Kaskar (54) has indeed come a long, long
way in a highly-globalised underworld. Said Munawar Amin, a long-time
resident of Bhendi Bazar, in whose mean streets Dawood, son of a
constable, grew up: "Along with his brother Shabbir, he used to extort
money from the Moplah businessmen who sell smuggled goods in our area.
Nobody visualised that he would go up so high in mafiadom."

With his headquarters in the Pakistani port city of Karachi, the elusive
Dawood today commands a transnational empire, whose current net worth is
placed by intelligence agencies at Rs 4 lakh crore.

Sources in Karachi said the don keeps on changing his location from
Karachi to Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar and to an isle off Karachi. He is
guarded by Punjabi and Balochi guards provided by the Inter-State
Intelligence (ISI) with whom he works in close tandem.

His family lives with him, but the ISI does not permit him to fly out of
Pakistan with his family in tow. This is perhaps the only restriction he
faces. Barring that, he has a free run of Pakistan and its economy. His
business partners include the Who's Who of Pakistan.

Dawood's principal source of income continues to be narcotics smuggling.
Sources in the narcotics control bureau said his smuggling empire
stretches from the US to Malaysia. Many of his old associates in the drugs
trade like Prem Shetty and Kamal Chhadha are still with him. Pure heroin
and cocaine from Afghanistan and the Burma-Thailand belt worth hundreds of
crores is smuggled through a well-oiled network to South Africa, Europe
and the US. Normal shipping and air routes are used to ferry the
contraband with the help of corrupt customs officials and cops.

He is heavily into real estate development in the Gulf and Mumbai. He also
has interests in telecommunication, aviation, shares and securities,
shopping malls and betting. One of his front companies has emerged as a
major player in the property market in Mumbai currently developing 8
million sq ft of residential and commercial space. He owns a vast chunk of
TDR through which he manipulates real estate prices in Mumbai.

Chhota Shakeel continues to be Dawood's chief lieutenant. "Dawood will be
crippled if Shakeel deserts him," a police official added. Will he ever be
able to return to India like his brother Iqbal? "The answer is an emphatic
'no'. That is because the ISI needs him on its side more than anyone
else," an intelligence official observed.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 16, Mizzima News
UK coalition may listen closer to Burma issues: activists - Kyaw Mya

No significant changes in Burma policy are expected from the new coalition
government headed by Conservative leader David Cameron, but campaigners
retain hope its foreign secretary’s knowledge of Burma and its desire to
please may open avenues to press Burma issues.

The British national election held on May 6, failed to produce a clear
winner, putting the third-placed Liberal Democrats led by Nick Clegg in
the position of deciding who would be prime minister. After several days
of backroom negotiations Clegg opted to join the Conservatives in forming
a government.

The coalition marks the end of 13 years of Labour rule, the last three
years of which were led by Gordon Brown, arguably one of Aung San Suu
Kyi’s most vocal supporters. Brown detailed Suu Kyi’s life in a chapter of
his book Courage, published just before he became prime minister. In it he
profiled eight of his personal heroes, including Nelson Mandela, Robert
Kennedy, Cicely Saunders and the assassinated black civil-rights activist,
Martin Luther King Jnr.

David Cameron is relatively young for a prime minister and while the
43-year-old Oxford graduate has never written about Suu Kyi, they earned
the same undergraduate degree at her alma mater; the Bachelor of Arts in
politics, philosophy and economics.

Burma Campaign UK director Mark Farmaner told Mizzima: “We are not
expecting any significant change from Cameron’s government. Before the
election we contacted all the main political parties to ask [about] their
policy on Burma and they all told us they support targeted sanctions 
 so
we are not expecting any major changes from the new government.”

Derek Tonkin, a former British ambassador to Vietnam, Thailand and Laos,
and now chairman of Network Myanmar, an organisation that unlike
Farmaner’s advocates for more economic engagement with Burma, said the
coalition government would take some time to adjust to being in power.

According to Tonkin: “I think they have a very difficult situation because
for the first time we’ll have coalition government between the
Conservative and the Liberal Democrats. They will need to work on their
policy towards Burma, and that is going to take a little time, because
Burma may not be the first priority.

“My expectation is that the policies of the previous government will
continue in the short term, until they have a chance to look thoroughly at
the situation in Burma and see what can be done”.

Farmaner said there would be one major difference without Brown as prime
minister. “He was very concerned about Burma policies and took a lead on
this issue, however we expect that within the new government, Foreign
Secretary William Hague will be the one taking the lead on the Burma
file”.

He added that Hague “is very well informed about the situation in Burma,
so we expect he will be a strong voice on pushing more action”.

Matthew Morgan, a Canadian political scientist and PhD student at
Toronto’s York University who specialises in Western foreign policy
towards Burma, believed the new British government’s tenure could provide
an ideal moment for advocacy groups such as the Burma Campaign to push the
Burma issue.

He told Mizzima: “no one expects this coalition government to last a long
time, meaning all three of the major British political parties will be
preparing for an election to happen in the very near future.”

“The threat of an impending election could make the ruling coalition more
open to listening to members of the public because they know they will
need their votes in the very near future,” Morgan said, adding, “the
Labour opposition does have a real chance to return to power if the ruling
coalition falters. This poses an interesting opportunity for civil society
to try and influence foreign policy.”

He said Burma advocacy groups based in Europe, such as the Burma Campaign,
also had to contend with the European Union, where Brussels played an
increasingly important, but often overlooked, role in shaping European
foreign policy.

“EU foreign policy towards Burma to a large extent has been shaped by the
interests of France and the powerful and well connected oil giant Total,
which runs the infamous and extremely lucrative Yadana [gas] pipeline,”
Morgan said. “Despite European rhetoric about human rights and streets
named after Aung San Suu Kyi, we’ve seen a big push from certain
pro-business elements in Brussels to normalise Europe’s relations with
Burma’s regime.”

David Cameron’s Conservatives have been quite vocal in their scepticism of
the EU and according to Morgan, his new government could challenge what
Morgan called “the EU’s ambiguous position on Burma”.

Morgan told Mizzima that: “The EU has set aside several million Euros for
‘civil society’ training in Burma. Many exiled Burma activists are
concerned this money will just go to so-called “third force” groups or
junta cronies masquerading as civil society and aiming to undermine Suu
Kyi’s NLD.

“With massive cuts in spending coming across Europe, I think both the
Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will be more sceptical about
throwing millions of Euros to so-called members of ‘civil society’; it
will be interesting to see what becomes of these funds,” he said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 18, Jakarta Globe
Burma-North Korea Ties Worry the World - Andrew Selth

For the past 10 years, Burma has been accused of trying to acquire a
nuclear weapon. A number of developments during this period — notably
Burma’s growing relationship with North Korea — have raised international
concerns. Yet, to date, no hard evidence of such a plan has been produced.

Claims of a secret nuclear weapons program date back to 2000, when Burma’s
military government announced that it was going to purchase a small
research reactor from Russia. These accusations were repeated in 2003,
when it was suggested by a respected news magazine that North Korea had
taken over from Russia as the source of Burma’s nuclear technology. In the
years that followed, the issue resurfaced periodically on activist Web
sites, but in August 2009 it attracted global attention when a story
appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald citing Australia National University
professor Des Ball and the Thai-based journalist Phil Thornton.

The SMH claimed that there were in fact two nuclear projects running in
Burma. The first was the Russian research center, which was to be operated
under international safeguards. (Contrary to the SMH story, construction
of this reactor has not yet begun). The second was said to be a secret
project to build a reactor and associated nuclear fuel processing plants
with North Korean help. According to the SMH, if all went according to
plan Burma would have a nuclear weapon by 2014 and “a handful” of such
devices by 2020. The main sources for these claims were two Burmese
“defectors” and commercial satellite imagery of suspect facilities in
Burma.

Needless to say, such claims have been the subject of close scrutiny by
the United States and other governments. There have also been
comprehensive studies of the issue by think tanks like the International
Institute for Strategic Studies in London and the Institute for Science
and International Security in Washington.

The US government has expressed its concern about the defense ties that
appear to have developed between Burma and North Korea over the past
decade. These links reportedly include the sale of conventional arms to
Burma, North Korean help with the development of Burma’s defense
infrastructure (including the construction of various underground
facilities), assistance to Burma’s arms industries and training in fields
like air defense. In 2004, the US blocked the sale of North Korean
short-range ballistic missiles to Burma.

The Obama administration has also stated its wish to discuss a number of
proliferation issues with Burma, including the possible transfer of
nuclear technology from North Korea. Significantly, however, at no time
has the US government stated that Burma is attempting to develop a nuclear
weapon, with or without North Korean help. Indeed, despite considerable
pressure from members of Congress, activists and journalists, Washington
has refused to be drawn on the subject. Its position seems to reflect
either a belief that Burma does not have a secret nuclear weapons program,
or a lack of hard evidence to support such a claim.

This approach has been shared by other countries, including Britain and
Australia, both of which have referred only to “unconfirmed” reports of a
secret nuclear program. For their part, the IISS and ISIS have both stated
that there is insufficient evidence to support the claims. The IISS, for
example, said in late 2009 that Burma “has no known capabilities that
would lend themselves to a nuclear weapons program.”

Even so, both governments and think tanks remain suspicious of Burma’s
intentions, and point to a number of factors which they believe warrant
continuing close attention.

Of all Southeast Asian countries, Burma has the strongest strategic
rationale for a nuclear weapons program. Since the abortive pro-democracy
uprising in 1988, the military government has feared armed intervention by
the United States and its allies. The regime has also suffered from
economic sanctions and other punitive measures. Burma’s generals envy
North Korea’s ability to resist such pressures and still win concessions
from the international community. They reportedly believe that this
influence derives from Pyongyang’s possession of nuclear weapons.

In addition, Burma has for some years been working closely with two North
Korean trading entities that have a record of proliferating sensitive
nuclear and missile technologies. Also, Burma has imported a number of
sophisticated machines and items of dual-use equipment from Europe and
Japan that could conceivably be used in a nuclear program. The number of
Burmese sent to Russia for nuclear-related training seems to be more than
that required for a peaceful research program. Furthermore, some of the
claims made by the “defectors” are plausible.

None of these factors in themselves prove that Burma has embarked on a
nuclear weapons program. After the mistakes of the Iraq war, no government
wants to rush to judgment based on incomplete or unverified intelligence.
Having been caught napping a few years ago, however, when it was
discovered that Syria was building a reactor with North Korean help, the
international community is now looking carefully for hard evidence of a
secret Burmese nuclear program.

East Asia Forum

Andrew Selth is a research fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute in
Queensland.

____________________________________

May 17, Democratic Voice of Burma
Ban Ki Moon must stand tall – Bo Kyi

At a recent press conference, the spokesperson for UN secretary general
Ban Ki-moon asserted that “the United Nations has strongly encouraged the
Myanmar [Burmese] authorities to invite regional and international
monitors because we believe that that will inspire confidence in the
elections”.

It is hard to imagine anything inspiring confidence in the elections. To
speak of election monitors in Burma misses the point entirely. An election
is more than just what happens on the day: to be effective, election
observation must look at the entire electoral process over a long period
of time, rather than at election-day proceedings only. For this to occur,
there needs to be genuine support from the state, as occurred in Cambodia
in 1993, where over 50,000 Cambodians were trained as election officials
by the UN Transitional. Elections are a process and it is the process
itself that is fundamental to democracy.

The legitimacy of the election in Burma will not rest on the whether
international observers are allowed to monitor the election – the
legitimacy of the election rests on the regime’s response to dissent.

In Burma, some 2,200 people remain in prison, where they live in dire
conditions and endure appalling abuses at the hands of the military junta
for their simple desire for a more peaceful and democratic Burma. If it is
democracy that this election is meant to serve, then why does the junta
keep locking up the very people who seek this aim?

A normal part of a democratic electoral process is debate; criticism of
the incumbent government. Where the ruling party has not lived up to
expectations, the election campaign is an opportunity for those contesting
the election to show voters where the incumbent fell short and why they,
as candidates, are a better option. In countries like the US, this is
taken to the extreme, with candidates and parties publicly ridiculing each
other; nothing is sacred in their efforts to expose the competition.

But in Burma, this is not the case. The Burmese junta has made clear its
thoughts on “the process of fostering democracy,” when they said that
“improper and inappropriate campaigns” would not be allowed. It is not
hard to imagine what is meant by “improper and inappropriate,” and it is
evident what the consequences for those found engaging in such campaigning
would be. History shows us that desperate despots stop at nothing to
perpetuate their rule. The past twenty years in Burma have shown us this
much, too.

Most recently, the regime, threatened by the power of the people, enforced
legislation to ensure the opposition is divided and weakened, which forced
the National League for Democracy (NLD) party to disband. But this only
indicates where the weakness of this regime lies. A military regime will
never capture the hearts and minds of its people, not in the way that Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi can, not in the way Min Ko Naing inspires generations of
activists the world over. That is the power of democracy; it lies in the
power of the people.

As if harassment, intimidation and imprisonment of the opposition were not
enough, the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has gone one
step further to seal the fate of the election outcome: they have violated
their own election laws. Burmese prime minister Thein Sein and his cronies
have formed their own political party, the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP). In doing so, they violate Chapter 2, Article
4(d) of the Political Parties Registration Law, which prohibits civil
servants from forming a political party.

With the 2008 constitution already ensuring the military 25 percent of the
seats in parliament, the fact that the military-led USDP is now going to
contest the election should dispel any doubts as to the SPDC’s true
intention for any power sharing arrangement.

Regardless of whether international observers monitor the election, the
elections will not be credible if they are held without the release of all
political prisoners and without the criminal records of current political
prisoners being wiped, therefore guaranteeing their right to
participation, once released. For the secretary general of the UN to
suggest otherwise is naïve, if not neglectful. What can we learn from
other dictators and their sham electoral processes?

During the 2008 election in Zimbabwe, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
withdrew from the contest because of violence against his supporters. In
the run up to the election, Mugabe set paramilitary thugs on his
opponents, intimidating many potential voters. At one point, Mugabe’s men
even attempted to throw Tsvangirai out of an eight-story building. The
state-run media spewed out propaganda; intense and abusive vitriol against
the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party and Tsvangirai. The
independent press was attacked, and its editors and writers frequently
brought in for police “questioning.” Following the 2008 election of
Mugabe, some African leaders refused to recognize Mugabe as president of
Zimbabwe. Given a similar pattern of willful perversion of the electoral
process in Burma, will the Southeast Asian leaders do the same?

What can we expect from Burma’s neighbours? China’s ambassador recently
told reporters: “A general election being held in any country is a matter
of a sovereign state, so that should be respected.” But as the British
ambassador, Mark Lyall Grant, aptly noted, “The instability that could be
caused by a flawed electoral process is a threat to international peace
and security.”

The UN Secretary General does not provide much inspiration for those
looking for a bold approach to Burma. “It’s frustrating and 

disappointing that we have not seen much progress” toward democracy, said
Ban Ki-moon. “Much progress” – in April alone, at least 12 political
activists were arrested, bringing the number of political activists in
prison to 2199. Leaping from 1185 in 2006, now, as the election looms ever
closer, the figure is set to increase.

Elections are important for the democratization of Burma, but, with almost
2,200 political prisoners excluded, the election will not be democratic,
or free, or fair. Democracy and human rights are interdependent. You
cannot have one without the other. Political prisoners embody the denial
of the most basic freedoms essential to humankind:  freedom of thought,
association and assembly. The treatment of these prisoners also violates
fundamental rights: the right to be free from torture, the right to health
and the right to an adequate standard of living. The judicial system, in
Burma, far from affording individuals basic standards of justice, is
employed by the regime as an instrument of repression to silence dissent.
And, at every level, impunity reigns.

In 2009 Ban Ki-moon stated: “It is high time to turn the promise of the
responsibility to protect into practice”. It is high time he gave meaning
to these words; it is high time he stood up for the people of Burma.
Without the support of the UN and the countries which make up its mandate,
then all you are left with is bravery of the Burmese people to fight
alone; with their words and with their hearts. It is time Ban Ki-moon
stood on the side of the Burmese people. He has the freedom to speak out
and those who have the freedom to speak out should do so for those who
cannot. The risk for him is far less than the risk my courageous brothers
and sisters take, for they will continue to risk torture and even death
before renouncing their non-violent struggle.

Bo Kyi is joint secretary of the Assistance Association for Political
Prisoners-Burma (AAPP)

____________________________________

May 18, Irrawaddy
Post-election threats to ethnic areas - Katrina Winters

The recent bombings at the Myitsone dam project in Burma are an example of
the root cause of ethnic armed conflict in Burma. While no one has claimed
responsibility for the bombings, a farmer who was arrested is viewed by
many as a scapegoat, who most likely lacked the resources and skills to
plant such a series of bombs.

One hypothesis is that it was the work of the Kachin Independence Army
(KIA), which took action as a part of their refusal to become a regime-led
border guard force. Another hypothesis is that it could have been an act
of the Burmese government to set up the KIA.

Either way, it is evident that the root cause of conflict in ethnic areas
in Burma is a conflict over land and resources.

Such conflicts are likely to accelerate and spread in ethnic areas,
especially in cease-fire areas where ethnic groups have refused to
transform their armies into a border guard force. As each deadline passes,
it is clear that the junta’s efforts to transform ethnic armies into
border guard forces have largely failed.

The junta's motivation to form border guard forces is not only for
political and security reasons but also for economic gain: to increase
access to natural resources in ethnic areas that are currently not under
their control. In the cease-fire agreements of the early 1990s, the
military regime commonly offered co-operative arrangements to ethnic
leaders to exploit natural resources, if they agreed to a cease-fire.

In a post-election context, as the Burmese government pursues its plan for
economic development through exploiting natural resources in ethnic areas,
tensions between ethnic armies both in cease-fire and non-ceasefire areas
and the Burmese military are bound to increase.

If cease-fire groups turn their back on the government, civil wars are
likely to resume, resulting in more land rights abuses, displacement and
refugees. Ethnic armies that either re-engage in a civil war or continue
in their armed struggle against the Burmese army also have to finance
their efforts. As in the past, they will finance themselves through the
exploitation of natural resources and through trade with resource-hungry
neighboring countries.

The situation is further compounded by the opening up of the economy. The
2008 Constitution stipulates that the post –election Burmese economy will
be market-based. In the article “A State-owned market economy” (Nov 16,
2009), Sean Turnell—a long-time observer of Burma’s economy from Macquarie
University, Australia—noted that the 2008 Constitution says that the
economy will have “a capitalist heart.” Article (35) states that, “The
economic system of the Union is a market economy system.”

Recently, there has been a continuing increase in state militarization,
large-scale resource extraction and infrastructure development. These
factors are causing widespread displacement in ethnic areas, particularly
in eastern Burma where there are plans to build a series of dams on the
Salween River.

The dams are part of a systematic plan by the military government to gain
control over natural resource-rich ethnic areas to create wealth and to
consolidate its political power base.

This is not a new state of affairs. As we know, there is no rule of law in
Burma, and the generals do not adhere to legal frameworks. They use the
law not to protect people’s rights, but to control the population and to
serve the economic interests of the Burmese government primarily through
extracting wealth. The country’s major income comes from selling off
natural resources, including billions of dollars from gas, and hydropower
development.

In a post-election context, we can expect on-going human rights abuses and
natural resource exploitation in the pursuit of economic development, as
the markets will be increasingly opened up to foreign investment. However,
little current foreign investment and state interventions for large-scale
development projects (such as dams, gas pipelines, mining and biofuel
plantations) actually benefit local communities.

They are purely for the economic benefit of the investors and the state.
Instead, they usually lead to disruption of local livelihoods and
environmental destruction. There is no transparency, local consultation,
appropriate compensation or participation in decision making about the
development that affects these local communities.

The fundamental problem lies in the current Constitution which gives the
government control of natural resources. Article 37 states: “The Union is
the ultimate owner of all lands, and all natural resources above and below
the ground, above and beneath the water and in the atmosphere.”

Foreign investors already have their eye on opportunities that might exist
after the election this year. In Burma, individuals are allowed 30-year
leases on land, and foreign investors such as Thai property and tourism
investors have already expressed interest in taking further advantage of
this after the election. Thailand is the largest investor in Burma (47
percent), and it is likely that other countries such as China will
increase their investment in the absence of any profound political reform.

As the country opens itself up to further investment without the
appropriate policies and mechanisms in place to protect basic human
rights, incidents such as the bombings at the Myitsone site dam are likely
to increase.

Conflict over land and resources and displacement of communities in ethnic
areas will increase. The livelihoods of rural communities in ethnic areas
are under serious threat, along with the natural environment and natural
resource management systems.

Most significantly, human security will continue to be threatened and
stability, peace, national reconciliation and democratization processes
undermined.

Katrina Winters is an environmental researcher at the Karen Environmental
and Social Action Network (KESAN) in Chiang Mai.