BurmaNet News, June 12 - 14, 2010

[Editor]

June 12 – 14, Issue #3981


INSIDE BURMA
DVB: Pro-junta group to guard ballots
Mizzima News: Suu Kyi ‘happy with party unity’
Irrawaddy: Burma finds the power for football fever

BUSINESS / TRADE
Mizzima News: Sons of top generals handed fuel-station permits

INTERNATIONAL
BBC News: Primary pupils learn of Burma by "tent arrest"
Amnesty International: Burma: Exiles stage defiant protest at London
embassy to mark Aung San Suu Kyi's birthday
Foreign Policy: Will the new Burma envoy focus on engagement or sanctions?

OPINION / OTHER
China Post: Burma's nuke wish needs response – Kavi Chongkittavorn
Foreign Policy: Hapless doesn't mean harmless – Christian Caryl
Asian Tribune: What If Burma goes nuclear? – Nehginpao Kipgen
New Light of Myanmar: Press Statement of Ministry of Foreign Affairs on
unfounded allegations against Myanmar regarding nuclear programme



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

June 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
Pro-junta group to guard ballots – Ahunt Phone Myat

Members of the junta proxy Union and Solidarity Development Association
(USDA) are being trained in lieu of their role in monitoring ballot boxes
during Burma’s elections this year.

Workshops are being conducted in Rangoon and Mandalay division and
Sagaing, Shan, Mon and Arakan states, by the Election Commission (EC),
according to a retired government official in Sagaing division who is
close to the USDA.

The government-appointed Electoral Commission has been charged as the
supreme authority during polls, rumoured for October this year.

The reports will likely heighten fears about the integrity of the
elections: the USDA is closely tied to the government, and is believed to
be the group that spawned the Union Solidarity and Development Party
(USDP), which is headed by Burmese prime minister Thein Sein and has been
widely tipped to win the elections.

Furthermore, the EC head, Thein Soe, said in May that international
election monitors “would not be welcome” in Burma. Critics of the ruling
junta have derided the polls as a sham aimed at extending military rule in
the country.

“USDA members
and those who are to become ward-level EC [members] are
being trained; we believe there is a motivation for these people to guard
the ballot stations to make sure the USDP wins,” said Phyo Min Thein of
the Union Democracy Party, which has registered for the elections.

“Given the circumstances, questions need to be asked as to what procedures
will be carried out to ensure free and fair elections, and also how fair
the EC will be.”

The same training is also being given to village, ward and town-level
government authorities, as well as judges and administrators, said a
government worker in Taunggyi, capital of Burma’s northeastern Shan state.

Similar concerns were raised around the time of the 2008 constitution,
when the government conducted training workshops for proxy groups to
ensure the smooth ratification of what was widely considered an unfair and
controversial procedure.

“During the constitution referendum, [authorities] were told to make sure
that 92 percent votes were in favour, by any means,” said the Sagaing
official. “Some villages used ordinary voting procedures and collected
about 60 percent ‘yes’ votes, but [the government] ordered them to change
the results to 92 percent [in favour].”

Their were reports around the time of the constitution referendum, which
began barely a week after cyclone Nargis struck Burma’s southern coast,
that voters were forced to mark their choice with a pencil.

The constitution then set the ball rolling for the elections this year, in
which around a quarter of parliamentary seats have already been awarded to
the military and which contributed to the boycott of the opposition
National League for Democracy party.

____________________________________

June 14, Mizzima News
Suu Kyi ‘happy with party unity’ – Salai Han Thar San

New Delhi – Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is glad her
National League for Democracy party’s member are united despite its
automatic dissolution in accordance with the junta’s one-sided electoral
laws, the opposition leader said in a two-hour meeting with a lawyer and
engineers on Friday.

Suu Kyi’s comments came during a meeting with her lawyer to discuss the
revocation by the Rangoon civic body of a permit allowing her to dismantle
a badly damaged wooden building inside her compound on University Avenue
Road, Rangoon Division, where she is being held under house arrest.

“I’m very glad that all of NLD members, including young members and women,
are very united even at the difficult time”, lawyer and NLD central
executive committee member Nyan Win told Mizzima, quoting Suu Kyi.

“She said it was the duty of government, political parties and people to
raise the young people,” Nyan Win said. “She said when we provide moral
support to nations’ young, it must be done with generosity and
comradeship.”

Suu Kyi also said party members needed to help the people clearly
understand democracy. According to her, political parties and the people
were responsible for understanding democratic values and putting them into
practice, Nyan Win said.

Authorities had allowed Suu Kyi to meet on June 11 from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m.
lawyer Nyan Win and engineers Khun Thar Myint and Htin Kyaw, whom Suu Kyi
assigned to monitor renovations at her crumbling villa beside Inya Lake.

The Nobel Peace laureate’s compound at No. 54-56 University Avenue Road in
Bahan Township comprises the main building, a badly damaged wooden house
and two huts – one a gatehouse and another adjacent to the lake.

The wooden house is 25 feet (eight metres) east of the main building and
is overrun with bushes. The Rangoon City Development Committee approved on
June 4 Suu Kyi’s application to have it demolished but the permit was
revoked the following day.

Nyan Win explained the city’s reasoning: “They [the Rangoon committee]
said that as the house [compound] was subject to an inheritance case 
 if
the wooden house was destroyed, the compound would lose its original
[historic] character.”

He said he would submit an appeal to the Rangoon mayor next week.

Meanwhile, Suu Kyi said members should celebrate her 65th birthday on June
19 at the home of Mogoke member of parliament May Hnin Kyi at 10 Miles
Gone in Mingaladon Township, Rangoon, Nyan Win said, amid fears that a
gathering at party headquarters would provoke a crackdown by the junta.

“In accordance with her [Suu Kyi] request, we will donate books and
pencils to underprivileged students [at the anniversary celebrations]”,
Nyan Win said.

Suu Kyi will have to spend her birthday in detention amid a continuing
18-month sentence imposed for “entertaining” uninvited American visitor
John Yettaw, who on May 4 last year had swum uninvited across Inya Lake
and stayed at her house for two nights. She was similarly forced to spend
her 64th birthday in a special room at Insein Prison as the prosecution
over Yettaw’s visit was being processed.

Yettaw’s trespass occurred two weeks before Suu Kyi’s scheduled release
from house arrest on May 27 last year.

____________________________________

June 14, Irrawaddy
Burma finds the power for football fever – Ko Htwe

Burma's state-run electricity firm has so far managed to provide adequate
power to Rangoon each evening since the World Cup football tournament
kicked off in South Africa on Friday.

The measure has kept thousands of football fans happy as they can now
enjoy the month-long sports competition live on TV. It comes after a
severe drought caused water shortages in Burma last month resulting in
frequent power cuts around the country, even in the capital, Naypyidaw.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Monday, an official from state-run Myanmar
Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) said, “A certain businessman close to
regime secured the rights to broadcast the World Cup in Burma nationwide.
However, without a guarantee of electricity every evening, he cannot
transmit it regularly on TV. So, he had to get some guarantees from MEPE.”

Yangon Entertainment, run by Zaw Min Aye, a son of one of the top military
generals, Lt-Gen Tin Aye, was granted exclusive rights to broadcast the
World Cup on TV. It screens the games through the country's only two TV
stations, MRTV and Myawaddy.

Hundreds of bars, restaurants and tea shops, such as the dozens that
occupy the area surrounding Rangoon’s popular Kandawgyi Lake, are
currently showing every match on large screens until late at night,
attracting hundreds of customers.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy, a retired professor from Rangoon said, “Thanks
to the World Cup, we are now getting a regular supply of electricity every
night. I heard that MEPE had to provide electricity for the matches
because they were afraid of riots breaking out.”

A reporter for a Rangoon-based weekly journal said, “When the World Cup
began, the electric current became instantly more regular. However, it
still goes off in the daytime.”

In Rangoon and Mandalay, the country's two largest cities, electricity has
been distributed under a rationing system for the past eight years,
because authorities have not been able to keep up with the rising demand.

In Rangoon, the power supply is usually restricted from March to June
because of a lack of rainwater to power the Lawpita hydroelectric plant at
full capacity. Lawpita, located 210 miles (350 kilometers) north of
Rangoon, is one of the main sources of electricity for the former capital.
The water supply of the Lawpita hydroelectric plant depends on Inle Lake
in Shan State.
During the dry season, which generally lasts from November through to
April or May, many households, offices and workplaces in Rangoon receive
no more than three or four hours of electricity a day.

However, in the rainy season, which usually begins in June and runs
through to November, MEPE can often provide a more regular electricity
supply to Rangoon’s 5 million residents.

The city of Rangoon needs about 450 megawatts daily, according to the
local journal Weekly Eleven.

Burma has one of the world’s lowest electricity-generating capacities.
According to data from the Ministry of Electric Power-2 , the country
needs 1,555.25 megawatts per day while power plants can produce only 556
megawatts daily.

For much of May, electricity for businesses in Rangoon was cut off
completely and MEPE officers sealed meter boxes. The cuts were partly the
result of low water levels at hydropower generating plants.

The power cuts affected private hospitals, shopping centers, small
businesses and industrial zones, most of which turn to private generators
to provide their own electricity supply.

MEPE is responsible for electrical generation, transmission and
distribution of electricity in Burma. The Ministry of Electric Power-2 is
responsible for distributing electricity, and the Ministry of Electric
Power-1 manages power plants.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

June 14, Mizzima News
Sons of top generals handed fuel-station permits

Chiang Mai – Burma’s ruling military junta has issued petrol-station
permits to the sons of Senior General Than Shwe and General Thura Shwe
Mann, and junta cronies, according to an Energy Ministry report.

Myanmar Naing Group, owned by Than Shwe’s son Tun Naing Shwe, has obtained
permission to run a total of six petrol stations in Rangoon and Mandalay
divisions, and in Shan State, a Ministry of Energy report received by
Mizzima reveals.

Tun Naing Shwe’s company also operating jade-mining business in Pharkant
in Kachin State, in the country’s north. He holds the controlling share of
J-Donut outlet in Rangoon, a retail pastry shop styled on Dunkin’ Donuts
and frequented by the children of Burma’s corrupt elite.

Since Burma’s oil sector was privatised on May 15, Ayar Shwewa/Shwe Yamone
and Zaygabar, linked to sons of military chief of staff, Thura Shwe Mann –
Aung Thet Mann and Toe Naing Mann – were given permission to open private
petrol stations. The former company was licensed to run 12 stations, the
latter, two.

The application for Zaygabar’s license to run the two stations is under
Toe Naing Mann’s despite the company being owned by his father-in-law,
Khin Shwe.

Concessions to the likely lucrative petrol-station business went to junta
nationalist social organisation, the Union Solidarity and Development
Association, and Myanmar Economic Holdings – a company that feeds income
to the junta – which received 15 and 14 stations respectively.

The other big junta crony companies that have been awarded petrol station
licenses are: Tay Za’s Htoo Trading, Shwetaung Development, Shwe Than
Lwin, Nilar Trading, Asia World and Kanbawza.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

June 14, BBC News
Primary pupils learn of Burma by "tent arrest"

East Lothian primary school pupils are to be held under "tent arrest" to
highlight the plight of one of the world's famous political prisoners.

Campie School pupils in Musselburgh are to be taken from the classroom by
"police" and held for 20 minutes.

The event will mark the 65th birthday of Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been
under house arrest in Burma for 14 of the past 20 years.

It is hoped it will raise awareness of people living in military
dictatorship.

Pupils have been learning about Suu Kyi, pro-democracy leader and Nobel
Laureate, as part of a Global Schools Partnership with Burma.

They also had a visit from Sau Aung Thant, a student who spent three years
in a Burmese labour camp for taking part in a peaceful protest to honour a
monk.

He was not allowed to return to university on his release, and was left
the country by travelling three days non-stop hidden in a van after he was
found putting up political posters.

Aung Thant, who has been studying at Newbattle Abbey College in
Midlothian, is convinced he would have "disappeared" if he had been
caught.

He said: "It was very good to be able to come to Campie school and speak
to the children.

"It is good to share stories about our countries and to let people know
here what is happening in Burma."

Campie's headteacher Sheila Laing introduced Global Schools after setting
up a partnership at her previous school, Forthview Primary School in
Edinburgh.

She said: "I was hoping Campie would want to set up a link with another
Burmese school, but was overwhelmed with the level of support from both
the children and parents.

"This is essentially about friendship, but we have being fundraising
recently to help pay for visas to get four Burmese teachers over here to
schools in the area.

"When Sau Aung Thant visited Campie to speak to the children you could
have heard a pin drop.

"The children were so engaged and so interested in his story that no-one
made a sound. Teachers were wiping away the tears, it was very moving."

Campie youngsters are writing to Burmese pen friends and three Campie
teachers and headteacher Sheila Laing are going to visit their partner
school, the Burmese Child Development Centre in Mae Sot on the border of
Burma and Thailand.

____________________________________

June 14, Amnesty International
Burma: Exiles stage defiant protest at London embassy to mark Aung San Suu
Kyi's birthday

Five Burmese exiled dissidents staged a defiant protest at the country’s
London embassy earlier this morning to mark the 65th birthday of Burma’s
iconic leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.
Aung San Suu Kyi led the National League of Democracy to victory in the
last elections in Burma back in 1990 with just under 60 per cent of the
vote. However, the ruling military junta ignored the result and she has
spent 14 of the last 20 years under house arrest.

The five, joined by Amnesty International UK’s director Kate Allen, scaled
the steps of the embassy, which are technically Burmese sovereign
territory – and in Burma political gatherings of five or more are illegal.

The protest was organised by Amnesty International UK and Burma Campaign UK.

Kate Allen, director of Amnesty International UK, said: “Saturday may mark
Aung San Suu Kyi’s 65th birthday. But the problems in Burma go far beyond
the detention of this iconic human rights defender – and we wanted to show
that with our small act of defiance.

“The five exiles each represent a different strand of Burmese society and
each has been forced to flee to the UK for simply seeking to express their
own opinions freely in their own country.

“Such a small act of defiance is impossible to do in Burma without severe
consequences. In Burma, the harsh reality is that anyone brave enough to
speak up against the regime can be monitored, harassed, discriminated
against, detained, imprisoned, tortured and even killed.”

Zoya Phan, International Coordinator of Burma Campaign UK who also took
part in the action, added: “Having a political meeting, an unregistered
mobile phone or just writing a poem is enough to be jailed in Burma. We
need more international action to free all political prisoners.”

Each person on the steps posed with a name of a Burmese political prisoner
scrawled on their upturned palm.

The five exiles were Zoya Phan, Wai Hnin Pwint Thon, Htein Lin, Nay Oo
Hlaing and  Aung Gyi.

On Friday, Radio 4 will be broadcasting a special programme on Aung San
Suu Kyi. The following day (Aung San Suu Kyi’s actual birthday) the
programme will be broadcast by BBC World Service into Burma.

Background information:
Zoya Phan is a high profile exile from Burma. She fled Burma aged 14 after
her village was attacked by the Burmese Army because they were from the
Karen ethnic minority. She is now International Coordinator at Burma
Campaign UK. Her autobiography, Little Daughter, was published in
paperback in May. Zoya Phan had the name of Nilar Thein scrawled on her
hand. Nilar Thein is an 88 Generation political prisoner, who had to
abandon her child because she couldn’t maintain her in her hiding place.

Wai Hnin Pwint Thon is the daughter of Ko Mya Aye, one of the organisers
of the 1988 pro democracy uprising in Burma. The first time she saw her
father was through the bars of a jail cell where he was imprisoned. Ko Mya
Aye was arrested again in 2007 for his role in the uprising that year. He
is currently serving a 65-year jail sentence and is being denied medical
treatment for a serious heart condition. Wai Hnin is a Campaigns Officer
at Burma Campaign UK. Wai Hnin posed with the name of her father written
on her hand.

Htein Lin is an artist and a comedian. He is also a former political
prisoner. He had the name of his friend Zarganar on his hand. Zarganar is
the most famous comedian in Burma and is currently serving a 35-year jail
sentence for criticising the country’s aid efforts following the 2008
cyclone.

Nay Oo Hlaing, is a 25-year-old exile whose father was a political
prisoner in Burma. He has been in the UK for eight months. At school in
Burma he was taught to act in a play by Zarganar. On his hand was the name
of Khun Bedu, a Kareni youth activist. Khun Bedu is serving a 30-year jail
sentence for campaigning against the country’s referendum in 2008.

Aung Gyi is a journalist for Democratic Voice of Burma who has been jailed
twice by the dictatorship. He was also a leader of the 88 Generation
students. He had the name of Aung Naing written on his hand. Aung Naing is
serving a 65-year jail sentence.

____________________________________

June 14, Foreign Policy
Will the new Burma envoy focus on engagement or sanctions? – Josh Rogin

The Obama administration is getting ready to select a new special envoy to
Burma, who if confirmed could take up his post just after the Burmese
junta holds elections the administration has already said won't be
legitimate.

An administration official told The Cable, "The Department of State is
reviewing several candidates now and will be in consultation shortly with
Capitol Hill on the pick to be selected." The current list contains
several names, and State is looking at established diplomats, former
policymakers, think tank wonks, those with experience on Capitol Hill,
etc., the official said.

It's been seven months since the Obama administration announced its new
Burma policy, which calls for limited engagement with the brutal regime
while keeping sanctions in place. The leading player on Burma policy,
Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, has been to the country twice
in his current role. The other most active public official on Burma,
Senate Foreign Relations Asia Subcommittee chair Jim Webb, D-VA, has gone
once.

The idea was to feel out Burmese leaders to try to make incremental
progress leading up to the upcoming elections later this year that a
future special envoy could build on. But none of that seems to be
happening, and Campbell acknowledged upon leaving Burma May 10 that the
elections are likely to be a farce.

"What we have seen to date leads us to believe that these elections will
lack international legitimacy," Campbell said following his last visit.

Webb canceled his recently planned trip altogether, only days after a
leaked U.N. report was said to accuse North Korea of using several
countries and companies, including those in Burma, to export nuclear and
missile technology.

The current administration thinking is to lay low until after the
elections and then try to reengage with the Burmese regime after that.
They calculate that putting the election in the rearview mirror will
eliminate it as a source of contention.

"What's happened inside the country is that they're completely focused on
this upcoming exercise that they are calling an election," the
administration official said. "Our best opportunities for some form of
engagement will come after the elections, even though we don't believe
they are credible."

Experts point out that even after the election, the issue of Burma's
suspected nuclear cooperation with North Korea will remain.

"The administration has not denied that there are serious transactions
between Burma and North Korea that are troubling," said Michael Green,
former National Security Council senior director for Asia and President
George W. Bush's nominee for special envoy to Burma. "In the midst of this
engagement from the Obama administration, the junta just went ahead on
these kinds of deals."

The administration, led by Campbell, approached the Burmese government
last year with a set of requests: for Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San
Suu Kyi to be released, for the government to reach out in some way to
ethnic minorities groups, and for a reduction in government-sponsored
violence.

"State was ought there on a limb, but they thought if they could get
something concrete from the junta they could justify further engagement,"
said Green. "But the fact is they got nothing, nada."

Green said he is out of the running for envoy, having seen his nomination
languish at the end of the Bush administration and then meet its end in
2009 when then-subcommittee chairwoman Barbara Boxer, D-CA, refused to
move it forward pending an unspecified favor from the White House that she
did not get.

Everybody liked Green, but the Obama team needs its own person for the job
-- someone who can quietly probe for diplomatic openings while avoiding
negative blowback from Capitol Hill.

And therein lies the rub. Senators, especially Republican senators, will
want an envoy whose focus is on enforcing existing sanctions against
Burma. The State Department needs someone who can continue the engagement
track.

"There's an anomaly in the situation," said one longtime Washington Burma
hand. "The legislation very clearly calls for senatorial approval. But the
legislation also talks about direct engagement with the Burmese."

Webb wrote June 8 to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to "strongly
recommend" Eric John, the current U.S. ambassador to Thailand, who had
some experience dealing with North Korea when he was a political officer
in the U.S. Embassy in Seoul.

But John's one noted interaction with the Burmese junta, in Beijing in
June 2006, didn't produce any results. Also, some privately question his
handling of the Bangkok embassy during the recent period of severe
political unrest there.

The administration will have to keep an eye on Webb, a key senator in this
issue, as the envoy selection process finishes up. Officials would also be
wise to keep an eye on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, and
Sam Brownback, R-KS, both of whom are sure to want to have a say in this
debate because of their keen interest in both North Korean proliferation
and human rights.

Overall, the administration will have to decide what else it can do to
persuade Burma's leaders to clean up their act -- and whether further
sanctions may be warranted.

"We've done certain things and they've done certain things, but neither is
sufficient from either point of view," the Burma hand said. "So we're in a
deadlock."

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

June 14, China Post
Burma's nuke wish needs response – Kavi Chongkittavorn

U.S. Senator James Webb, Chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs
Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, abruptly postponed
his visit to Burma on June 3 -- only a few hours before his scheduled
flight--after learning of a report about Burma's nuclear ambition. It was
a bad time to do that, he said, due to new allegations the Rangoon junta
leaders were collaborating with Pyongyang to develop a nuclear program. A
few days ago, after his return to the U.S., Scot Marciel, ASEAN ambassador
said that if the allegation is true, it would impact on the stability and
security in the region.

Webb would not take such a drastic step if he just ignored the report
produced by Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma through Aljazeera that
alleged Burma is moving toward nuclear technology. Since last August, he
has miraculously widened the U.S. engagement with Burma and created storms
of controversies following the first high-level visit by any U.S.
political figure. He has always hoped to bring peaceful changes and
prosperity to Burma as he once did in Vietnam.

However, the 10-month intensified dialogues and contacts between the U.S.
and Burma, symbolized by the two trips of Kurt Campbell, Assistant
Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, have not yet
produced breakthroughs or the kind of regime that the U.S. or the
international community would like to see -- a regime that promises an
inclusive, free and fair election with creditable international polls
monitoring. Equally important on the U.S. agenda is to ensure that there
is no violation of the U.N. Security Resolution 1874 that imposes
sanctions against North Korea. Indeed, these endeavors have actually
turned to continued frustration.

Worse is the prospect of stronger Burma-North Korea relations. Both are
rogue states, which used to be enemies for the past 23 years. Now they are
each other's best friends amid growing international isolation and
tightening economic sanctions. Thanks to Pyongyang's willingness and
foreign-exchanges need, Burma's nuclear confidence has shot up that one
day it would have the kind of bargaining power enjoyed by other nuclear
aspirants.

After decades of complacency, the Thai security apparatus, especially the
National Security Council (NSC), have finally paid more attention to its
long-standing assumption that Burma does not and will not have the
capacity to assemble a nuclear bomb. The main argument was very simplistic
-- Burma is poor and backward so it is highly impossible for the country
to embark on the project. In addition, persons familiar with the NSC
analyses on Burma would immediately recognize the narrative pattern of
"appeasement" and "don't rock the boat" syndrome in handling this Western
neighbor.

The often cited justifications are fragile security along the porous 2004
kilometers border and Thailand's growing dependency on natural gas from
Gulf of Martaban. Last year, the Foreign Ministry asked energy-related
agencies and their top decision-makers to come up with policy options to
reduce energy needs from Burma and other neighbors. So far, they have not
yet done it arguing much was at stake as a lump sum of money have been
invested already in the natural-gas related development projects with
Burma. Thailand imports an estimate of US$880-million worth of energy from
Burma annually. From their vantage point, preservation of status quo at
any cost is desirable fearing the country's future energy security would
be compromised.

Additional problem is the deep-rooted fear of Burma's aggression (what the
Burmese generals can and willing to do against the country and its
people). Anytime the word "Pha-mah" -- meaning Burma in Thai -- is
mentioned to ordinary Thais, not to mention the authorities, they would go
hysterical with negative comments and endless condemnation. It immediately
would conjure up the heartless burning of Ayuthya, which took place in
1774 -- some 236 years ago. However, to the Thais the total annihilation
of the Siamese capital is as vivid as before with the aid of numerous
historical books, dramas, folk tales and words of mouth. One would think
that such phobia should serve as a kind of energizer to consolidate the
Thai security officials and related agencies to look for common policy
options to counter Burma's move. It has not happened.

Strangely enough, the Thai military's intelligence officials, who have
been working closely with the U.S. and Australian counterparts in tracking
the junta's nuclear ambition for the past decade, know all along this
dangerous ambition but they have not shared information and done serious
assessments with the energy sector.

No wonder, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya is very concerned as he is well
informed of Burma's well-kept secret. It is possible that Thailand, along
with other ASEAN members, might raise the nuclear weapon program at the
ASEAN foreign ministerial meeting next month in Hanoi (July 13-19) asking
Rangoon to further clarify the issue. Seriously, nobody expects Burma to
tell the truth. But ASEAN needs to put on record as its reputation is at
stake, especially at the time the grouping wants to increase its profile
to promote peace and stability as well as economic well-being
internationally. After all, Burma was among the 10 signatories of the
region's first no-nuke treaty, the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon Free
Zone. ASEAN members are also parties to the Non Proliferation Treaty, but
quite a few members have not yet ratified it.

The Obama Administration has been pushing for a nuclear-free world and
trying to rid the world of potential nuclear terrorists. Expectation in
the region is high that the U.S. would continue to pressure Burma
internationally to comply with the relevant U.N. resolutions as well as
any future engagement of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy
Agency to inspect all nuclear-related allegations. Sooner than later,
ASEAN must take up Burma's nuclear plan and other global issues to iron
out differences in order to forge common views and positions, which the
ASEAN foreign ministers have to submit to their leaders at the ASEAN
Summit in October in Hanoi.
____________________________________

June 14, Foreign Policy
Hapless doesn't mean harmless – Christian Caryl

Burma has a nuclear program. It's a mess, but it's still a nuclear program.

If you're interested in international security, I strongly recommend that
you check out a new documentary titled Burma's Nuclear Ambitions. The film
comes from the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), an Oslo-based
nongovernmental organization that has made a name for itself as a source
of good independent reporting on events inside that benighted country. The
reporters at DVB spent the past five years collecting the material for
this project, which makes a persuasive case that the generals who run
Burma (aka Myanmar) have spent vast sums on a program to develop weapons
of mass destruction. Robert Kelley, an ex-U.S. nuclear scientist and
former U.N. nuclear inspector who collaborated with the filmmakers, told
me that their effort offers a unique opportunity to blow the whistle on a
rogue state's nuclear plans earlier rather than later. "This is a small
program at early stages," he says. "I hope that by releasing this
information we're letting the cat of the bag, and that no one can put it
back now. There should be a public debate."

There will be -- though so far a lot of major media outlets (including the
New York Times and CNN) have notably failed to pick up on the story. And
that's a pity -- not only because this scoop has broad ramifications for
Southeast Asia and the future of the long-suffering Burmese people in
particular, but also because it will almost certainly raise new concerns
about the scandalous ineffectiveness of the existing international system
to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. (Yep, looks like the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been caught asleep at the
wheel once again.)

The documentary -- which aired earlier this month on the English-language
version of Al Jazeera -- shows how Burma's reigning generals have used
their profits from the sale of natural resources to fund the purchase of
sophisticated equipment and the training of thousands of Burmese engineers
abroad (mostly in Russia). The DVB reporters had been plugging away at the
story for years without getting beyond the level of tantalizing hearsay.
They'd heard that the government was spending billions on vast underground
command centers and an underground fiber-optic communications system to go
with them. They'd learned about the attempts to train Burmese engineers in
various military-related disciplines outside the country, and they knew --
like the U.S. government -- that the generals in the test-tube capital of
Naypyidaw were engaging in various kinds of suspicious cooperation with
North Korea.

But they still didn't have hard evidence. So they decided to beam a
message back into Burma by satellite, asking for sources to come forward.
In February of this year someone finally responded. An army major by the
name of Sai Thein Win defected to Thailand, bringing with him a trove of
photos and detailed knowledge of a military-run defense plant where he had
worked as a manager. Sai, who had spent five years in Russia studying
engineering, revealed how he and his colleagues at the factory had used
German-made precision machine tools to manufacture rocket parts. At
another installation he saw -- and photographed -- equipment that was
allegedly intended for uranium enrichment. (Kelley, who served as a
consultant to the DVB production, confirmed that it was highly likely that
the equipment shown in the photos was being used for nuclear purposes.)

And of course there is the highly incriminating back story of North Korean
involvement in Burma. It should be said that, though the DVB documentary
includes photos showing purported North Korean advisors giving the Burmese
help with large-scale tunneling (one of the few areas in which the North
Koreans have world-class expertise), it doesn't provide any solid evidence
that Kim Jong Il has shared his nuclear technology with the generals. That
isn't to say there isn't good reason to harbor suspicions, though. The
film does include photos of the Burmese regime's No. 3 general visiting
his jovial counterparts in Pyongyang in November 2008. (The person who
passed the photos on has apparently since been shot.) Bertil Lintner, an
expert on Burmese politics who also collaborated with the filmmakers, says
that Western diplomats have verified the presence of North Korean
technicians at a Burmese missile production facility.

And what, for example, was on board the Kang Nam 1, the North Korean ship
freighter that was sailing for a Burmese port last year until the U.S.
Navy persuaded it to turn around? U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
expressed concern about deepening ties between the two pariah states at a
meeting of regional leaders last year. In May, U.S. Assistant Secretary of
State Kurt Campbell issued a statement calling on the Burmese leaders to
comply with the U.N. sanctions imposed on North Korea after Pyongyang's
nuclear test a few years back.

The question that arises from all this, of course, is why Burma would want
to get into the WMD business in the first place. The country has no
threatening neighbors, no regional rivals that want to take it over. But
that, say the experts, would be to underestimate the regime's xenophobia
and pathological suspicions of the outside world. The film offers clues.
One Burmese ex-diplomat defector interviewed on camera puts it like this:
"In 1992, when General Than Shwe came to power, he thought that if we
followed the North Korean example, we would not need to take account of
America or even need to care about China. In other words, when they have
nuclear energy and weapons, others will respect us." Burma analyst Lintner
points to the domestic context as well. "According to the people I have
talked to, the Burmese generals believe they need a strong deterrent to
remain in power, against the outside world as well as their own
population." In 2007, it should be recalled, hundreds of thousands of
demonstrators took to the streets to protest against the country's
leadership. If having nukes would make it that much harder for outsiders
to pressure them, that would, conceivably, make life harder for internal
opponents as well.

We could, perhaps, take some consolation from the fact that the Burmese
WMD program doesn't seem to be terribly sophisticated. Geoffrey Forden, a
Massachusetts Institute of Technology expert who examined the evidence on
the Burmese missile program, gives them five to 10 years to get a rocket
launched and built -- and much longer to come up with one that would have
serious range. Kelley says that, based on the evidence, the nuclear
program looks even less serious. The generals don't appear to have any
coherent strategy for actually making a functioning nuclear weapon. The
only enrichment technique they seem to be using so far is the laser
isotope method, which several developed countries have tried and dropped
as unduly complicated. Kelley speculates that bureaucrat-scientists might
be leading the generals on a bit (something, he says, that's been known to
happen in other countries where political leaders are eager to get their
hands on powerful weapons). One of the defectors tells a story about the
scientists demonstrating a laser to visiting higher-ups by burning a hole
in a piece of wood. One of the attending generals was so discomfited by
this mysterious device that he immediately asked them to stop.

Yet there is still plenty of cause to worry. For one thing, the generals
have plenty of cash. Over the next few years they'll be earning tens of
billions of dollars from natural gas sales to the Chinese -- and much of
that money is apparently slated for the nascent WMD program. And even
though the Russians halted work on a promised reactor project when they
started to harbor doubt about Burmese intentions, it's clear that there's
little the international community can do to prevent the junta from doing
what it wants inside the country. (It turns out that the IAEA basically
gave Burma a pass a few years ago when the country essentially declared
itself a nonnuclear power, and has little leverage to exert as a result.)
Our best bet, it would seem, is that the brutal, paranoid, and
astrology-driven generals who run Burma really are just as wasteful and
incompetent as they appear to be from the outside. So why doesn't that
seem especially comforting?
____________________________________

June 13, Asian Tribune
What If Burma goes nuclear? – Nehginpao Kipgen

The Burmese military regime’s desire to become a nuclear power is an
alarming development for the Burmese people, especially ethnic minorities,
as well as nations which like to see a nuclear free world.

The documentary, broadcasted by the Al Jazeera news network on June 4, is
an indication of how the Burmese military junta has planned to acquire
nuclear weapons, with the help of North Korea.

Both Burma and North Korea, along with other totalitarian regimes or
dictatorships such as Belarus, Cuba, Iran, and Zimbabwe, were identified
as “outposts of tyranny” in 2005 by Condoleezza Rice, the then U.S.
secretary of state.

The Al Jazeera report featured extensive documentation, including photos
and blueprints of tunnels and suspected nuclear facilities. The materials
which were provided by a military defector, a former army major, add
credibility to the suspicion that Burma is pursuing a nuclear program.

The revelation of such covert activities, by its own military rank at this
juncture, is something the Burmese military generals would not like to
have happened. Not only has the junta denied such allegations, but also
supported establishing a Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
(SEANWFZ).

The joint statement of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
and the United States of America, in November 2009 “welcomed the efforts
of the president of the United States in promoting international peace and
security including the vision of a nuclear weapons free world.”

The ASEAN-US leadership also “agreed to work towards preventing the spread
of nuclear weapons and work together to build a world without nuclear
weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.”

What could have prompted Burma to build nuclear facilities is an
interesting subject. North Korea has managed to defy the U.N. sanctions,
and has now considered itself as a nuclear power. Pyongyang flexes its
military muscles against the threat of any attacks by Seoul and
Washington.

The lack of a strong coordinated international response, despite U.N.
sanctions, has emboldened North Korea. Amidst international condemnations,
North Korea still enjoys the support of China, its closest communist ally
which is also a U.N. Security Council member.

Such ineffectiveness on the part of the international community to prevent
nuclear proliferation has encouraged the Burmese military junta. The
military generals believe that their nuclear ambition will not be blocked
by China and Russia – the two veto-wielding powers of the U.N. Security
Council.

If Burma becomes a nuclear nation, it will make the military leaders more
arrogant and intransigent. Having no foreign enemy, the junta will not
hesitate to use its power to suppress the county’s ethnic armed movements,
which are fighting for autonomy in their respective territories.

The hope of establishing a federal Union of Burma will become slimmer, if
not infeasible. The voice of the international community on human rights
abuses and exploitation of other democratic rights will also have lesser
impact on the military regime.

Moreover, a nuclear Burma will likely make Southeast Asia insecure,
unstable, and possibly might pave the way for nuclear arms race in the
region.

In the larger interest of the international community and the Burmese
people, it is important that the International Atomic Energy Agency
investigates the report and act responsibly to maintain peace and
stability.

ASEAN should abjure its traditional policy of non-interference, especially
when an action of its own member state can disturb the peaceful existence
of the entire populace in the region.

It is expected that the United States government, in its capacity, will
work with the international community to prevent Burma from acquiring
nuclear weapons. However, North Korea is an example where the U.S. has a
limited role to play when it comes to international crisis.

Unless it is for a peaceful purpose, nuclear powers such as China, India
and Russia need to work together with other world powers to prevent Burma
from acquiring destructive weapons. Proliferation of nuclear bombs,
especially in the hands of totalitarian regimes or military dictatorships,
should be considered a threat to humanity.

It is important that the Obama administration appoints a special envoy for
Burma, which was authorized by the U.S. congress during George Bush’s
presidency in 2008. The White House should consider the model of the North
Korean six-party talk, involving the United States, European Union, ASEAN,
China, India, and Burma.

Burma pursuing nuclear weapons is a violation of ASEAN’s collective
commitment for establishing SEANWFZ and nuclear weapons free world. It is
also a violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874 (2009) for North
Korea to export nuclear materials.

A nuclear Burma is a grave danger to its own ethnic minorities who have
suffered racially and psychologically, in the hands of the military junta,
for decades.

Nehginpao Kipgen is a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in
modern Burma (1947-2004) and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki
International Forum (www.kukiforum.com)

____________________________________

June 12, New Light of Myanmar
Press Statement of Ministry of Foreign Affairs on unfounded allegations
against Myanmar regarding nuclear programme

Nay Pyi Taw – Following is a Press Statement issued today by the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs on unfounded allegations against Myanmar regarding the
nuclear programme. The full text of the statement is as follows:-

In recent days, the international media reported allegations that Myanmar
has been attempting to develop a nuclear programme in collaboration with
the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea with an aim to acquire nuclear
weapons.

Those reports are merely groundless allegations with political motives to
exert pressure on Myanmar.

Moreover, as these accusations are fallacious information originated from
media sources and individuals who are seeking to undermine the national
interest of Myanmar, and are also based on a single source of some
deserters, fugitives and exiles, the news reports lack reliability,
objectivity and impartiality. Myanmar did not see the need to respond to
these groundless accusations as they are totally far from the realities in
Myanmar.

Following the adoption of US government’s engagement policy towards
Myanmar, the US Senator Jim Webb and Assistant Secretary of State Kurt
Campbell visited Myanmar and started the engagement process between the
two countries.

At a time of resumption of engagement between Myanmar and the US, those
unfounded allegations were made up by the anti-government elements in
collaboration with news media with political purpose in a timely manner.
Besides it was also an attempt to tarnish the image of the Myanmar
government and to disrupt its on-going political process at a time when
the government is exerting all out efforts to holding general elections
for democratic transformation. As a result of surfacing of those
allegations, Senator Jim Webb who was scheduled to visit Myanmar in early
June has postponed his planned visit.

Being a member of the United Nations, Myanmar always respects and abides
by resolutions and decisions adopted by the United Nations. Moreover, it
has been actively participating in the UN Conference on Disarmament in
Geneva as a founding member of the Conference.

Myanmar is also a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and
has signed the Safeguard Agreement with the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) in 1995. At the regional level, Myanmar as a member of
ASEAN, acceded to the Treaty on Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone.

In its drive for the advancement of science and technology and the use of
nuclear energy for peaceful purpose in health and education sectors,
Myanmar had had an agreement with Russia for the construction of a
10-Megawatt Nuclear Research Reactor, in addition to sending trainees to
other countries including Russia.

However, the plan was suspended without implementation due to inadequacy
of resources and the government’s concern for misunderstanding it my cause
among international community. In fact, that project was arranged to be
implemented under the Safeguard Agreement of IAEA.

It is necessary to view separately with a clear differentiation between
peaceful use of nuclear energy and production of nuclear weapons.

Myanmar has all along supported the legitimate rights of every state to
the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. While supporting
non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, Myanmar supports the principles of
non-politicizing the NPT and nondiscrimination against developing
countries in the NPT implementation.

Myanmar has constantly contributed to regional peace and stability in
collaboration with ASEAN member countries. Myanmar will never engage in
activities that would affect regional peace and stability.

Exerting pressure on Myanmar based on groundless nuclear accusations and
making allegations with political intent to intervene in the internal
affairs or with geopolitical strategic purpose will in no way contribute
to the regional and international peace and stability.

Myanmar is just a developing country which lacks sufficient
infrastructures, technology and financial resources to make nuclear
weapons. Some experts concluded that Myanmar is not in a position to make
nuclear weapons.

Based on these facts, it is reiterated that the allegations of Myanmar
trying to develop nuclear weapons are unfounded and no efforts have been
made to do so.

Myanmar only wants peace and has no ambition to become a nuclear power state.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Nay Pyi Taw