BurmaNet News, August 25, 2010

[Editor]

August 25, 2010 Issue #4027


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar's Suu Kyi suggests NLD supporters don't vote
AFP: Myanmar parties struggle in 'sham' vote
Mizzima: NDF leader gives up on polls citing bureaucratic obstacles
Irrawaddy: 88 Generation leaders remain defiant
Irrawaddy: Trafficking victims become traffickers

ON THE BORDER
DVB: Wa and Karen armies face final deadlines
KNG: Junta wants KIO to disarm

BUSINESS / TRADE
Mizzima: Officials hedge on junta’s future with hidden funds

ASEAN
AFP: Leaders warn on S.E. Asia's rich-poor gap

REGIONAL
New Age (Bangladesh): Bangladesh to bar war crimes suspects, Burmese
refugees from pilgrimage

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Cyclone Than Shwe hits Naypyidaw – Aung Zaw

PRESS RELEASE
Burma Campaign UK: Canada must support Burma crimes inquiry – Protest at
Embassy in London



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 25, Agence France Presse
Myanmar's Suu Kyi suggests NLD supporters don't vote

Yangon – Myanmar's detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has
suggested that people who want to back her disbanded party in upcoming
elections refrain from voting, her lawyer said Wednesday.

Suu Kyi has heard on the news that people are asking what they should do
because they would like to vote for her National League for Democracy
(NLD) but the party no longer officially exists, Nyan Win said.

"She said just don't vote if people want to vote only for the NLD," he
told AFP by telephone after a visit to her lakeside home on Tuesday.

"But she does not say anything about people's choice," he added.

On Tuesday Nyan Win quoted Suu Kyi as saying people should keep a close
watch on the November 7 poll and speak out if the vote is not free and
fair. He withheld the latest remarks until he had discussed them with
colleagues.

The 65-year-old Nobel Peace Laureate has spent most of the past 20 years
in detention, and as a serving prisoner is barred from standing in the
upcoming vote, which will be the military-ruled country's first in 20
years.

The NLD won a landslide victory in 1990 but the junta never allowed it to
take office.

The party is boycotting the November poll, saying the rules are unfair. As
a result, it was forcibly disbanded by the ruling generals.

So far 42 political parties have been given permission to stand in the
election, which has been widely condemned by activists and the West as a
charade aimed at putting a civilian face on military rule.

Among them is the National Democracy Force, created by former NLD members
whose decision to participate in the vote put them at odds with Suu Kyi,
who was in favour of the NLD boycotting the vote.

____________________________________

August 25, Agence France Presse
Myanmar parties struggle in 'sham' vote

Pakokku, Myanmar — With undercover police lurking nearby, breakaway
opposition leader Than Nyein pleaded in vain with local democracy
activists to contest army-ruled Myanmar's first election in 20 years.

Standing up to the junta is fraught with risk, and with democracy icon
Aung San Suu Kyi supporting a boycott, a splintered opposition is
struggling to find enough people willing to stand for parliament in the
November 7 vote.

"If we want to see change sooner, we have to build confidence between (the
ruling generals) and us," said Than Nyein, chairman of the National
Democratic Force (NDF), formed by ex-members of Suu Kyi's now-defunct
party.

"We have to see them and talk," he told a group of supporters of Suu Kyi,
who has said she would "never accept" her party registering for the
upcoming vote because the election laws were "unjust".

Than Nyein failed to persuade his audience, who vowed to stay loyal to the
Nobel Peace laureate.

"We respect you, but we have different opinions," said Hlaing Aye, who was
among those elected in 1990 under Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
(NLD) in a landslide opposition victory that was voided by the junta.

"We would like to maintain unity within the NLD. The important thing is to
keep a family spirit among us," added Hlaing Aye, chairman of the NLD
branch in the town of Pakokku in central Myanmar.

Suu Kyi's backing of a boycott has led to a split in the opposition
between those who support her defiant stance and others who see the vote
as the only hope for progress in the autocratic nation.

The November election has been widely condemned by activists and the West
as a sham aimed at cementing army rule. One quarter of the parliamentary
seats are reserved for the military whatever the outcome.

Suu Kyi, the daughter of Myanmar's independence hero General Aung San, has
spent much of the past 20 years in detention and is barred from standing
in the vote because she is a serving prisoner.

As a result of her party's boycott, it has been abolished by the junta.

Adding to the reborn opposition's woes, it faces time constraints,
intimidation and financial challenges -- candidates must pay a fee of
about 500 dollars, the equivalent of several months' wages for most
people.

Than Nyein said the NDF had so far recruited about 100 candidates, though
498 seats are available in the two-chamber national parliament, not to
mention the places on offer in planned regional legislatures.

"Our priority is to nominate candidates," Than Nyein told AFP during a
five-day trip around the country to search for people willing to stand,
with plain-clothes police following close behind.

It has been more than two years since Myanmar's junta first announced
plans to hold elections sometime in 2010, but the regime only gave the NDF
permission to participate last month.

After finally announcing the date of the polls, the authorities gave
parties little more than two weeks to register candidates by August 30.

So far 42 parties have been given permission to run, but many
constituencies are expected to be won uncontested by the junta's main
proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

"The opposition parties are facing serious barriers at the moment," said a
Western diplomat in Yangon who did not want to be named.

"You've got a combination of financial and time constraints as well as
unfair pressure. They're also up against the juggernaut of the USDP, which
is a government party with unlimited financing as far as we can make out."

The USDP, headed by Prime Minister Thein Sein, has its roots in the Union
Solidarity and Development Association, a pro-junta organisation with up
to 27 million members, many of them coerced to join, according to rights
groups.

At least one opposition party, The Democratic Party (Myanmar), has
complained of intimidation of its members by security personnel, as well
as financial difficulties.

"The election commission law has so many restrictions," said senior party
member Than Than Nu, whose father was Myanmar's first prime minister after
the country was liberated from British rule in 1948.

"Because the security officials pressure the people, they dare not come
forward to stand," she told AFP, adding that her party expects to put
forward about 100 candidates, though it had hoped for 1,000.

Under strict rules, members of all parties are banned from marching,
waving flags and chanting to garner support. They must apply one week in
advance for permission to gather and deliver speeches outside their
offices.

While few expect the NDF, or any other party, to come close to matching
the NLD's 1990 landslide victory, there are signs that the party is
managing to win over some Suu Kyi supporters.

Htun Sein, a 97-year-old retired military captain who fought the British
alongside the Nobel Peace laureate's father, is among those planning to
stand as a parliamentary candidate under the NDF.

"I have been striving for democracy in Myanmar for more than 20 years," he
said at the opening of the party's office in Mandalay last week.

"I joined the NDF because we haven't achieved anything lately."

____________________________________

August 25, Mizzima News
NDF leader gives up on polls citing bureaucratic obstacles – Kyaw Kha

Chiang Mai – National Democratic Force party central executive committee
member Khin Maung Swe announced today he is withdrawing from nationwide
polls on November 7.

He and other members of the main opposition National League for Democracy
(NLD) party had split to form the National Democratic Force (NDF) so they
could stand in this year’s elections.

The junta’s electoral watchdog, the Union Election Commission (UEC), told
Khin Maung Swe and the NDF’s vice-chairman Tin Aung Aung, central
executive committee member Thar Saing and politburo member Sein Hla Oo, to
file an appeal to allow them to stand, as electoral laws barred them from
participating on grounds of their high treason convictions in 1990.

Though they had already filed such petitions they said they were
instructed to file again, so Khin Maung Swe believed this suggested the
junta would block any of their efforts to be elected.

“I have submitted this petition to them. Now they’ve [the UEC staff] asked
me to file it again as a personal appeal. They will not give me permission
to contest in this election even though I submitted this petition again as
they said. So I will not file this petition again and will not contest in
this election,” Khin Maung Swe told Mizzima.

“They’ve imposed restrictions on me for this election. They have permitted
registration of our party so they should also allow its leaders to
participate 
 It is logical and natural,” he said.

It is not yet known whether the three other leaders will resubmit their
petitions.

Other politicians who have turned their backs on the upcoming election,
denouncing it as neither free nor fair, include Union Democratic Party
chairman Phyo Min Thein.

____________________________________

August 25, Irrawaddy
88 Generation leaders remain defiant – Ba Kaung

Three years since their arrests in August 2007, the imprisoned leaders of
the 88 Generation Students group are unchanged in their common view that
the conditions for the coming election are unacceptable, according to
their family members and friends.

According to a political dissident in Rangoon, nine student leaders,
including the prominent figures Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, remain
committed to the “Maubin Declaration,” an accord they reached in Maubin
prison in 2008 before they were transferred to different prisons across
Burma.

According to the agreement, the group will not lend its support to a
general election if the ruling junta does not make the process
all-inclusive and does not release all political prisoners without
conditions.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Wednesday, Ko Aung, the younger brother of Ko
Ko Gyi. said, “My brother has not changed his position on that agreement
since my last prison visit in February.”

Both Min Ko Naing, 47, and Ko Ko Gyi, 48, had each spent nearly 15 years
in jail as political prisoners until they were released in the years 2004
and 2005 respectively. The two student leaders were rearrested in 2007 for
taking part in demonstrations against a hike in fuel prices and are
currently serving 65-year sentences in different prisons in Shan State in
northern Burma.

Another group member, Htay Kyaw, who is jailed in western Burma, also
relayed a message during a family prison visit this month that the
election would be “insignificant” without the participation of
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. In a recent letter to a friend in
Rangoon, Htay Kyaw said he was spending his time reading books on
political science and economics.

Soe Tun, a 39-year-old former political prisoner and a member of the 88
Generation group, who has been in hiding since 2007, said that there is as
yet no sign of jailed student leaders being freed and that the opposition
parties will suffer defeats in the coming election.

“Instead, the regime will increase suppression of its political
opponents,” he said in a recent audio message to The Irrawaddy. However,
he emphasized the importance of opposition groups not attacking
pro-democracy parties contesting the election.

The regime election laws bar all political prisoners, including Suu Kyi,
from the voting process. The US government recently said the election
would be lacking in legitimacy without the release of political prisoners.

The Thailand-based NGO, Assistance Association for Political Prisoners in
Burma (AAPP), has estimated that more than 2,000 political prisoners are
currently languishing in Burmese jails.

On Tuesday, the Burmese military authorities released more than 100 people
from jail, none of whom were political prisoners, said AAPP.
____________________________________

August 24, Irrawaddy
Trafficking victims become traffickers – Hset Lin

Rangoon — Some human trafficking victims in Burma have become traffickers
themselves, perhaps due to insufficient support in rehabilitation or a
lack of jobs, according to Police Col. Sit Aye, the head of the police
force’s Department against Transnational Crime.

Police Col. Ralian Hmong of the Committee on Combating Trafficking in
Persons (CCTP) said more than 100 people who had once been trafficked into
China or Thailand were found to be traffickers when police arrested
hundreds of traffickers over the past few years. Lack of sufficient
support in rehabilitation programs was one reason that may have driven
them into the profession, he said.

Thin Thin Myat, the deputy director of the Burmese Department of Social
Welfare, said the government's allotted budget for trafficking victims is
not sufficient to provide rehabilitation, and it cannot not even cover the
victims' living expenses while they transition back into normal life.

“Victims are scattering all over the place, and we can't provide them more
than 50,000-100,000 kyat (US $51-105) per person a month. These are
difficulties we face,” said Thin Thin Myat.

Speaking at an anti-trafficking workshop last week, Col. Sit Aye said,
“Burmese trafficking victims are in vulnerable situations. Women become
paid-wives after being trafficked to China. In Thailand, girls are subject
to prostitution, sex exploitation or slave labor in factories. As for men,
many have to work on fishing boats like they are slaves.”

Thin Thin Myat said more financial and other assistance is needed to bring
trafficking victims back into the mainstream.

A trafficking victim from Pegu (Bago), Aye Aye, said, “An NGO lends us
50,000 kyat ($50) each in our group. But we have to pay interest of 10
kyat on a hundred each month, and that's not cheap. I can't pay the
interest this month, which means I can't borrow more. The interest rate is
about the same as we borrow money outside, so their support doesn't make
much difference.”

Thida (not her real name) described her experience after she was rescued:
“Five girls, including myself, were trafficked and sold to a factory. When
we came back, people in our ward thought we had been sexually abused. In
fact, we were only exploited and not paid daily wages for our labor. But,
people thought that we were sex workers so they didn't treat us equally or
help us.”

Col. Ralian Hmong said lack of sufficient support has led some trafficking
victims to take up the business, because they know how it works.

“They know trafficking routes,” he said. “They also know some employers
and brokers as well as how to deal with them. So, when they couldn't find
jobs to make a living, they took others to where they had been before by
saying that they will find jobs for them there. They have become brokers
in many cases without understanding that trafficking is against the law.”

According to CCTP statistics, 534 trafficking cases were investigated
between 2006 and 2010, and authorities arrested 1,455 people on
trafficking charges; 300 people are on a traffickers' wanted list.

The CCTP said that out of 534 trafficking cases, 79.2 percent took place
in China; 9.2 percent in Thailand; 0.6 percent in Malaysia; and 11 percent
in Burma.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

August 25, Democratic Voice of Burma
Wa and Karen armies face final deadlines – Naw Noreen and Ko Htet

The Burmese government will launch attacks on two ethnic armies in Burma’s
volatile border regions if they continue to refuse to transform into
border militias.

A deadline of 1 September has been set for the KNU/KNLA Peace Council to
make the switch to a Border Guard Force (BGF) or they will be “driven out
of their headquarters” in eastern Karen state by Burmese troops.

Three days later, the 30,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), Burma’s
largest ethnic army, will be forced to transform or otherwise face an
assault from the government, which is pressuring ceasefire groups to
accept assimilation into the Burmese army.

Both have however resisted, and decades-old ceasefire agreements are now
on tenterhooks. Brig-Gen Timothy from the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, which
split from the Karen National Union (KNU) and brokered a ceasefire with
the government three years ago, said an attack on his troops would be “a
declaration of war against all Karen people”.

“We will try peaceful, patient negotiations as long as we can,” he said,
adding that if the military government intimidates Karen people, the Peace
Council “won’t hesitate in protecting all the Karen territories, as well
as all ethnicities in Burma, including Muslims, the Chinese and the
Burmans”.

Last week another Karen splinter group, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
(DKBA), held a ceremony to mark its transformation, although a crack
appeared in the force last month with the defection of renegade commander
Na Kham Mwe and some 1,500 of his troops, who are now being hunted by the
Burmese army.

Rights groups have warned that Karen and Shan states in particular, which
both share borders with Thailand, are becoming pressure cookers and that
an eruption of fighting could trigger an exodus of Burmese refugees across
the border into neighbouring countries.

An official in the Wa army, which controls territory in Shan state, told
DVB that UWSA was warned it would be deemed an “unlawful association” of
“insurgents” if it failed to comply by 4 September, and would be “sent
back to the days before 1988” when it was part of the purged Communist
Party of Burma (CPB).

“We don’t have any plan to separate from
or attack the government. We just
want to keep the status quo where we negotiate and cooperate with each
other,” he added.

Wa leaders attended a meeting several days ago with government officials
in Tangyan town in Shan state where they were warned of the deadline. The
Wa official said that the UWSA was not making any special preparation for
a possible conflict and “does not expect the government to launch an
attack on us”, but added that “we will have to think differently if they
actually attack us”.

____________________________________

August 25, Kachin News Group
Junta wants KIO to disarm

For the first time during its sixteen year old ceasefire agreement with
the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the Burmese army said it wants
the KIO to disarm. That information came on August 22, after a series of
meetings between the two sides, according to sources close to the KIO.

KIO delegates were informed in a letter from Burmese military officials
during a Sunday meeting at the Mali Hka Center, inside the junta’s
Northern Regional Command at Myitkyina, Kachin State, KIO sources told the
Thailand-based Kachin News Group today.
061609-kia

The KIO informed the junta that it will reply to the directive after the
upcoming KIO Party Congress in Laiza, located on the China-Burma border,
eastern Kachin State, which begins Friday, August 27, according to KIO
officials in Laiza.

This is the first congress for the KIO in its 49 year revolutionary
history and the congress will made decisions on shifts in the Kachin
political situation, including whether it will accept the disarmament plan
or resume armed struggle with the junta.

Wawhkyung Sin Wa, Deputy General Secretary of the KIO told the KNG earlier
this week the congress will be attended by about 200 KIO delegates from
Kachin State and Northeast Shan State and make decisions on its policies
for the future.

Sin Wa also added that those decisions will be important for any group or
organization related to the KIO and all Kachin people.

The Sunday meeting was joined by five KIO senior officials, including
Chairman/president Lanyaw Zawng Hkra, Vice-president No. 1- Lt-Gen Gauri
Zau Seng, General Secretary Dr. Lahkyen La Ja, and Vice Chief of Staff
Brig-Gen Sumlut Gun Maw, KIO officials said.

The junta’s representatives at the historic meeting included Maj-Gen Soe
Win, Commander of Northern Regional Command, Maj-Gen Ohn Myint, former
Northern Regional Commander, Brig-Gen Thein Zaw, Minister of Post,
Communication and Telegraphs, and Lt-Gen Ye Myint, Chief of Military
Affairs Security, said sources close to the KIO delegates.

The KIO is the strongest ethnic armed group in Burma, other than the
United Wa State Army (UWSA). It is also the last existing Kachin armed
group which rejected the regime’s proposed Border Guard Force.

The Kachin people’s support of the KIO had dropped when it endorsed the
junta’s National Convention (NC) from 2004-2007 and approved the new
regime-sponsored constitution drafted from the NC.

However, the KIO regained the Kachin people’s support when it rejected the
junta-proposed Border Guard Force.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

August 25, Mizzima News
Officials hedge on junta’s future with hidden funds – Bern Smith

Sydney (Mizzima) – Senior Burmese government officials are salting away
assets of all kinds and stashing funds in offshore banks in a sure sign
the insiders are beginning to hedge their bets on the ruling military
junta’s future, a prominent Australian analyst of the Burmese economy has
said.

A stockpile of onions builds up at a market in Rangoon amid a recent ban
on onion exports. Australian economic analyst of Burma Sean Turnell
described as another example of the ruling generals’ ‘madness’ their
decision to ban onion exports to combat a domestic shortage. Photo:
Mizzima
Professor Sean Turnell of Sydney’s Macquarie University said the officials
were looking to guarantee their families’ futures in Burma’s ruling class.

The Burma Economic Watch principal has addressed the US Senate committee
on foreign relations about the effectiveness of US sanctions, of which he
is a firm believer.

Also a former Reserve Bank of Australia senior analyst, he said little
could be expected from Asean, India, nor China when it came to pushing for
reforms from the junta, but there was some hope from within the military
clique.

“Some developments are quite dramatic at the moment,” he said. “There are
sizeable holes in the regime, but that’s really it on the upside.”

Turnell, who will next month travel to Washington to meet members of
Congress, believed senior figures within Burma’s military administration
were “running scared”.

“With the election coming, it’s obvious that it will be the farce that
everyone says it’s going to be, and the most senior [generals] will still
have everything,” he said from his home in Sydney.

He said some elements of the international community saw these key figures
as rising “robber barons” in Burmese society, comparable with the American
phenomenon of the 1900s. In the United States, such businessmen amassed
great personal fortunes, but national institutions such as libraries and
foundations and infrastructure such as railways, were a positive
by-product of the era.

But the Burmese reality was far bleaker, Turnell said: “In the last six
months what we’re really seeing is the rising of a criminal business
class, with the privatisation push it’s really a rapid criminalisation of
the economy.”

“They’re protecting themselves more in the manner of the mafia,” he said.
“It’s morphing from this nationalistic, quasi-Stalinist state into a
criminal economy”, where the individual played a more prominent role than
was healthy for a developing economy, he said.

And with the focus turned to the “connected” individual capable of
securing a concession or privilege from the junta had come greater
disparity.

“We’re not going to get a Hyundai or Daewoo out of this,” Turnell said,
dismissing the argument of economic liberalists that democracy and human
rights evolved with economic development. “These people [with privileges
granted by the junta] are not innovators, nor manufacturers, this is
simply rent-seeking.”

There was no new middle class coming to the fore and demanding their
rights and exercising newfound power as consumers, he said.

A classic example of what Turnell described as the “madness” of the
generals was a recent decision to ban onion exports to combat a domestic
shortage.

“Farmers had entered into contracts, they had contractual obligations,” he
said. But those obligations would now be breached because of the generals’
actions. And so a promising industry had been cut off at the knees, he
added.

He compared the current onion ban with that of beans and pulses a few
years ago. Once the bean and pulse export industry had been ruined by
export bans, the generals left it alone – in the past few years it had
been making something of a comeback.

“There is no path to anything [for producers] other than mere survival,”
he said.

Turnell bemoaned the argument that development would lead to greater
rights for the people of Burma and a more equitable system would bloom
with time. “If it was genuinely developing then you would have to say
‘well, that’s better than nothing’, but it’s just not happening,” he said.

____________________________________
ASEAN

August 25, Agence France Presse
Leaders warn on S.E. Asia's rich-poor gap – Ian Timberlake

Danang, Vietnam — Southeast Asian leaders warned Wednesday of a widening
gap between the booming region's richest and poorest nations that could
threaten its ambitious drive for an EU-style single market.

Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam have recorded high growth rates but
their per capita gross domestic product remains the lowest among the 10
members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

"The danger of (a) widening development gap remains a major obstacle to
ASEAN's future development, especially given the context of expanded ASEAN
economic integration," Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said in
opening remarks to an annual meeting of the bloc's trade and commerce
ministers.

Emulating the European Union's example, ASEAN wants to establish by 2015 a
single market and manufacturing base of about 600 million people -- a goal
that has been spurred by intensifying competition from China and India.

The discrepancy between ASEAN's rich and poor members "is quite wide" and
could undermine efforts to create the single market, ASEAN secretary
general Surin Pitsuwan told reporters.

"A house divided by such a gap is not stable," he said.

According to ASEAN statistics, GDP per capita in the bloc ranges from 419
dollars in Myanmar to more than 36,000 dollars in Singapore.

Surin said the gulf within ASEAN had widened because some countries were
better able to attract investment as the global economy recovered from the
crisis which struck in 2008.

"It has come up quite often at the highest level, of how to help bridge
this gap," he said.

The Vietnamese prime minister, who chaired the meeting, urged ministers to
"work out concrete and robust measures" to create a more equitable ASEAN.

But the bloc has been more focused on initiatives such as forging
individual free trade deals and does not have the budgets or structures in
place to address the issue, said Leon Perera, group managing director of
Spire Research and Consulting in Singapore.

"I think they haven't really set that goal in a serious way," he told AFP
by telephone.

Perera said that "other things being equal, you tend to get more
inequality" as a consequence of globalisation, and a development gap may
be more significant within countries than between them.

"I think what has not been developed is... some kind of process where you
have a more systematic way of addressing the different levels of
capacity," said Indonesian Trade Minister Mari Pangestu.

She said Europe has a special fund to address differences within that bloc.

ASEAN announced earlier this year agreement in principle to establish an
infrastructure fund, which could help equalise development.

In Vietnam alone, the European Chamber of Commerce has cited estimates
that the country needs around 70-80 billion dollars of investment in
infrastructure, such as ports and roads, over the next five to 10 years.

The Indonesian minister said that fostering increased trade and investment
within Southeast Asia and the wider region will help counter a possible
"double-dip" global recession.

Fears have grown that the United States economy -- a key engine of global
growth -- could dip back into recession after a fragile recovery from the
2008 crisis.

"We talk about that, and we need to be cognizant of the risks of the
global environment that we face," Pangestu said.

Surin said Southeast Asian nations need closer cooperation to deal with
incidents such as this week's Philippines bus hijacking that left eight
Hong Kong tourists dead.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

August 25, New Age (Bangladesh)
Bangladesh to bar war crimes suspects, Burmese refugees from pilgrimage

The government on Tuesday decided to bar war crimes suspects and others
allegedly involved in militancy or terrorism from performing hajj
[pilgrimage] while the number of aspirant pilgrims has risen to 94,000
from Bangladesh this year.

The decision was made at an inter-ministerial meeting presided by the home
affairs minister, Sahara Khatun, at the secretariat against the backdrop
of widespread apprehension that many war crimes suspects might leave the
country for hajj and would not return.

The home ministry also ordered measures to stop illegal migration of
Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh to Saudi Arabia at hajj time.

"We are taking pre-emptive measures this time so that no foreigners,
especially Rohingyas, can obtain Bangladeshi passports and leave the
country under the cover of hajj pilgrims," Sahara said after the meeting.

In reply to a question, she said war crimes suspects and others allegedly
involved in terrorism and militancy would be barred from performing hajj.

Sahara said the hajj agencies were asked to submit the lists of the
intending pilgrims to the Special Branch by August for verification.

The agencies would be responsible if any pilgrims do not return after
performing hajj in Saudi Arabia.

"Legal action will be taken against hajj agencies if any of their pilgrims
do not return to the country after performing hajj," the home minister
said.

She said the Rohingyas from the Arakan state of Myanmar [Burma] were going
to Saudi Arabia through Bangladesh during Hajj and were tarnishing the
image of the country with their misdeeds.

The passport authorities and intelligence agencies were asked to properly
verify the identity so that no foreigners, especially the Rohingyas, could
obtain Bangladeshi passports, the state minister for home, Shamsul Haque,
who also attended the meeting, said.

Senior officials of the religious affairs ministry, law enforcement
agencies and also representatives of Hajj agencies, among others, attended
the meeting.

The Saudi authorities have approved Bangladesh's application for allowing
93,900 people to perform hajj in 2010 while the number was 59,029 in 2009.

As for reason for sudden increase in the number of pilgrims, the state
minister for home said people were feeling more encouraged to perform hajj
this year because of better management by the Awami League-led government
in the past year.

"We, however, fear militants or terrorists may take the chance to leave
the country as the law enforcement agencies have strengthened drives
against the menace in recent times," the minister said.

Hajj flights to Jeddah will begin on 8 October and end on 12 November
while the return flights will begin on 22 November and end on 21 December
as hajj, the biggest congregation of the Muslims, will take place in the
middle of November, officials said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 25, Irrawaddy
Cyclone Than Shwe hits Naypyidaw – Aung Zaw

“Looks like another cyclone has hit us,” is the catchphrase currently
doing the rounds in Naypyidaw. Although only meant as a metaphor for the
recent shake-up in government personnel, the hushed whispers in the
corridors of the capital's ministries are only half in jest. For this time
the reshuffle has torn through the heart of the military government, and
many major players are now unsure where their futures lie.

The destructive force of nature yet again is Snr-Gen Than Shwe, the
reclusive and ailing military dictator whose decisions are more often than
not based on paranoia and superstition (he frequently enlists
numerologists to assist him in planning events and enacting policies).

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be
reached at aungzaw at irrawaddy.org.
On the chopping block this time were several top military generals, most
notably four chiefs from the bureaus of special operations: Lt-Gen Thar
Aye, Lt-Gen Ohn Myint, Lt-Gen Myint Swe and Lt-Gen Khin Zaw.

Than Shwe also reportedly asked for the resignations of his head of air
defense, Lt-Gen Myint Hlaing, his chief of ordnance production for the
country's armed forces, Lt-Gen Tin Aye, and Chief of Defense Services
Inspection and Auditor-General Lt-Gen Maung Shein.

Within those very ministries affected, it was immediately noted that other
chiefs of bureaus of special operations, namely Lt-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and
Lt-Gen Ko Ko, were not shown the door.
Likewise, within the armed forces, training chief Lt-Gen Hla Htay and
Adjutant General Lt-Gen Thura Myint Aung, also avoided the gauntlet.

But the Burmese junta is nothing if not unpredictable. It is openly
speculated that Min Aung Hlaing is now expected to become the deputy
commander-in-chief of the army, while the regime's No.3, Gen “Thura” Shwe
Mann, who has long been tipped for the top, either as commander-in-chief
of the army or as a future president, will remain in his current position
as joint chief of staff, a powerful position that gives him oversight of
all commanders of the army, navy and air force.

The motives behind the shake-up are still sketchy. Several publications,
including The Irrawaddy, were tipped off that the resignations were, in
fact, lateral moves as the resigning officers had been selected to take
over positions in the post-election government.

Like Prime Minister Thein Sein, it was reported that the resigning
officers would join the junta's proxy Union Solidarity and Development
Party (USDP) and prepare to take seats in the new parliament.

But although that may very well be the case, it would not be unlike the
wily Than Shwe to use the occasion to kill two birds with one stone. While
promising parliamentary seats and ministerial positions for some, he could
purge others from their posts, paving the way for a few fresh faces,
perhaps some young blood, among his closed ranks.

Some observers have suggested that the reshuffle was simply a knee-jerk
reaction to the US-led calls for a war crimes commission on Burma; though
how Than Shwe might think that he can distance himself from the military
hardliners is anyone's guess.

Some military analysts who are close to the regime have said that the
aging leader has become increasingly irrational and out of touch with
reality. They say he is desperately concerned about his personal safety
and his children and grandchildren's futures. His fears were nearly
realized last month when, allegedly, he narrowly escaped an assassination
attempt in Naypyidaw.

Analysts also claim that Than Shwe sees himself as president of a future
government. A Burmese editor who is based in Rangoon told The Irrawaddy:
“Than Shwe would like to become president with Shwe Mann as
commander-in-chief and Tin Aye as deputy commander-in-chief.”

Whether a paranoid knee-jerk reaction or a calculated chess move, Than
Shwe's reshuffle could very likely create chaos within the corridors of
power, according to several Burma scholars. They say that even though Than
Shwe is gradually moving around his most trusted officers between the key
positions in the armed forces and the ruling council, he has still not
clarified what he intends for his succession.

There is no clear back-up strategy nor a Plan B. If Than Shwe had a heart
attack tomorrow, the junta could quite easily fall apart from hasty grabs
for power and internal strife.

Observers say that business rivalries among the generals and family
members, conflicts of interest and infighting between the army generals
and the officers-turned-politicians could severely threaten the stability
of the regime.

So, while the people of Burma pray for the winds of change, the generals
in Naypyidaw are bracing themselves for the impact of the storm. And no
one dares bet on the whirlwind nature of Than Shwe's wrath.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

August 25, Burma Campaign UK
Canada must support Burma crimes inquiry – Protest at Embassy in London

Burma Campaign UK is holding a demonstration at the Canadian Embassy
calling on the Canadian government to publicly support a UN Commission of
Inquiry into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Burma.

Canada has traditionally taken the lead in supporting accountability and
respect for international human rights and humanitarian law. It has also
been a strong supporter of promoting human rights and democracy in Burma.
However, five months has passed since a report by the UN Special
Rapporteur on Burma calling for a UN Inquiry, and Canada has still failed
to publicly state that it supports this.

Canadian Friends of Burma and Burma Campaign UK have joined forces to call
on the Canadian government to support a UN Inquiry.

“If we are going to build enough international support for the
establishment of a UN Inquiry, then it is vital to get the support of
countries such as Canada, which has a strong commitment to human rights,”
said Zoya Phan, International Coordinator at Burma Campaign UK. “War
crimes and crimes against humanity are being committed in Burma. Canada
must not remain silent on this issue.”

Burmese community organisations and human rights groups in the UK are
supporting the demonstration, including: National League for Democracy –
Liberated Area (UK), Kachin National Organisation, Chin Community,
Democratic Party for a New Society, and Christian Solidarity Worldwide.

For more information contact Zoya Phan on 07738630139.