BurmaNet News, September 16, 2010

[Editor]

September 16, 2010 Issue #4043


INSIDE BURMA
Reuters: Myanmar bars some ethnic leaders from polls: source
Irrawaddy: EC rejects individual Kachin candidates
Irrawaddy: More ex-generals to run for USDP
Irrawaddy: Top USDP candidates to run in Rangoon
DVB: ‘Activists’ jail term extended by 20 years
Xinhua: Myanmar re-grants visa-on-arrival for regions without Myanmar
embassy set-up

ON THE BORDER
SHAN: Tension spirals between junta, ceasefire groups after confrontations

BUSINESS / TRADE
Reuters: Myanmar expands private banks with military ties

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Ban worried by Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
Independent (UK): It's no laughing matter in Burma – Peter Popham
Eurasia Review: Elections in Myanmar: It's all about exclusion – Medha
Chaturvedi
Irrawaddy: The fate of the NLD – Kyaw Zwa Moe

INTERVIEW
Mizzima: Democratic Party to focus efforts on lower house, leader says




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

September 16, Reuters
Myanmar bars some ethnic leaders from polls: source

Yangon – Election authorities in army-ruled Myanmar have rejected the
candidacy of a dozen former leaders of a major ethnic group, sources said
on Thursday, raising doubts about ethnic participation in the upcoming
polls.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) gave no explanation as to why the
politicians from Kachin State, which borders China, were barred from
running as independent candidates in the November 7 ballot for seats in
regional and national assemblies.

The decision, which has yet to be been made public, comes after pressure
by the ruling junta for armed ethnic groups who have enjoyed decades of de
facto autonomy to join the political process in a bid to unify the nation
ahead of the election.

Three parties were formed to represent Kachin State but all were rejected
upon registration for the polls, meaning the Kachin, one of the eight
major ethnic groups in Myanmar, will have no representation in the
much-criticized election.

A Yangon-based businessmen with close connections to Kachin politicians
said the barring of the candidates was likely in retaliation for a refusal
by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to disarm and join a government-run
border patrol force.

"We're sure it's because of the refusal to accept the regime's Border
Guard Force (BGF) scheme," said the source, who requested anonymity for
fear of reprisal.

CONFLICT CONCERNS

The KIA was founded on 1961 and fought against successive military regimes
for greater autonomy or independence until a ceasefire agreement was
signed in 1994.

Like most of the ethnic armies, it has refused to join the government-run
BGF but was willing to take part in the political process, mainly through
the Kachin State Progressive Party (KSPP), but KSPP's application was
rejected.

The move to bar the Kachin politicians raises the likelihood of a military
offensive by the Myanmar army against armed separatists rejecting the BGF
plan, which analysts expect to take place before a new government is
formed.

Reports from ethnic news sources say the army has sent reinforcements into
Shan and Kachin states and analysts say it is unlikely the junta will
agree to any devolution arrangement.

Adding to fears of conflict, the junta announced on state television late
on Thursday that polls would not take place in some 200 villages in
Kachin, Kayah, Mon, Kayin and Shan States, which are home to armed ethnic
groups.

MRTV said polls had been scrapped "because the situations there will not
be conducive to free and fair elections."

(Reporting by Aung Hla Tun; Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by Sugita
Katyal)

____________________________________

September 16, Irrawaddy
EC rejects individual Kachin candidates – Ko Htwe

After previously rejecting the registration application of the Kachin
State Progressive Party (KSPP), Burma's Election Commission (EC) has now
rejected the applications of 14 leading KSPP members, including its
founder Tu Ja, who alternatively applied to run as individuals.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Thursday, KSPP Secretary Tu Raw, said: “I
feel the refusal is unfair and we have not been given the right that every
citizen should have to compete in the election. We will now have no
opportunity to debate issues on a political stage like the new
parliament.”

“We have a chance for appeal to the Division Sub EC. There may be one or
two candidates who make an appeal, but I personally will not appeal,” said
Tu Raw, who had hoped to compete for the Pyithu Hluttaw (People's
Parliament) in Waingmaw Township in Kachin Division.

The KSPP is the most popular political party in Kachin State, receiving
the support of almost all local organizations and residents, including
local authorities, and so the junta-backed Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP) attempted to block the KSPP registration, said Tu
Raw.

“The USDP knows that it is impossible for them to compete with the KSPP in
Kachin State, and so it tried to stop our party from being registered,” he
said. According to one of the KSPP candidates, the USDP also tried to stop
the fourteen individual candidates from receiving EC approval.

Tu Ja, the former vice-chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization
(KIO) who formed the KSPP in March 2009, said the other reason the EC
didn’t approve its registration was because it believed the KSPP had ties
with the KIO.

“The second reason they won't allow us to register as a party or as
individual candidates is the party's alleged ties with the KIO,” he said.
The KIO is an armed cease-fire group. The military junta has ordered the
KIO to transform its troops into a border guard force, but the KIO has
thus far refused.

Section 12(a)(3) of the Political Parties Registration Law (PPRL) denies
registration to any party that is involved with groups launching armed
rebellions or involved with associations declared to be "unlawful
associations."

Tu Raw said that while the party does not have direct ties with the KIO,
it does recieve support from all influential organizations in Kachin
State.
“We have ethnic ties with the KIO, but not political ties and not the same
agenda. If we don’t get support from that group, it would make it
difficult for our party movement in the region,” he said.

At present, the only political party running an election campaign in
Kachin State is the Unity Democracy Party of Kachin State (UDPK), a
pro-junta ethnic party allied with the USDP.

However, the USDP, the Shan Nationals Democratic Party (SNDP) and the
National Unity Party (NUP) have said they will compete in Kachin State as
well.

So far, out of the 42 political parties that have applied, the EC has
allowed 39 parties to register, including ethnic Karen, Mon, Palaung and
Pa-O parties, according to the state-run The New Light of Myanmar
newspaper.

____________________________________

September 16, Irrawaddy
More ex-generals to run for USDP – Ba Kaung

The Burmese military junta's third-and-fourth ranking officials, Shwe Mann
and Tin Aung Myint Oo, have been approved by the election commission as
candidates for the junta's proxy party, the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP).

They will run in Zeyar Thiri and Pubba Thiri townships in Naypyidaw as
candidates for seats in the People's Parliament, according to the official
notification of approved candidates issued by the commission on Tuesday.

Both are among the second batch of high-ranking military generals
resigning from the army within the last month to join the USDP; however,
they remain members of the ruling State Peace and Development Council.

The state-controlled media in Burma have not officially announced their
resignations from the military nor have they confirmed that the
ex-generals have joined the USDP, except that recent state-media reports
no longer carry their military titles, but instead attribute them with the
Burmese honorific title of “ U.”

The notification also states that Prime Minister Thein Sein and other
retired military officials, including Myint Hlaing, the former chief of
air defense, and ex-Maj Gen Maung Oo who currently remains minister for
home affairs, will also stand for constituencies in Naypyidaw for seats in
the People's Parliament as USDP candidates.

USDP chairman Thein Sein will run in Zabbu Thiri, one of the eight
townships in Naypyidaw.

Only the USDP and the pro-regime National Unity Party (NUP) will compete
in Naypyidaw. Pro-democracy parties said they will not run in the new
capital because they fear they will have next to no vote among the town's
military-influenced population.

Among the approved candidates, ex-Lt Gen Myint Swe, will run as a USDP
candidate in Seikgyikanaungto Township in Rangoon for a seat in the
Nationalities' Parliament.

The USDP is widely expected to claim an overwhelming victory in the
election in the absence of the main opposition party, the National League
for Democracy (NLD), which was dissolved by the election commission on
Tuesday.

This will pave the way for the former senior military personnel to be
elected as civilian representatives in the new government, which is in
addition to the fact that the Constitution already guarantees the military
a quarter of the seats in the parliament.

Vice-presidents will also be nominated by a majority of army and civilian
representatives in the parliament, and will most likely be the elected
candidates of the USDP. One of the three vice-presidents who is required
to be “acquainted with political, administrative, economic and military
affairs” will be selected as president.

The presidency is expected to go to either junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe
or Shwe Mann.

____________________________________

September 16, Irrawaddy
Top USDP candidates to run in Rangoon – Wai Moe

Among the senior officials in the Burmese military regime who are running
for office in the Nov. 7 election as members of the junta-backed Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), most have been listed as
candidates in the Rangoon Region, according to the Union Election
Commission (EC) which approved the candidate lists on Tuesday.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, EC officials said Thursday that the
approved USDP candidate list for the Rangoon Region [previously the
Rangoon “Division”] includes former Lt-Gen Myint Swe, who retired from his
military post in August and will contest in Seikgyi Kha Naung To Township
for a seat in the Rangoon regional parliament, and former Col and current
Rangoon Deputy Mayor Maung Par, who will compete in the same township for
a seat in the the People’s Assembly (Lower House) of the Union Parliament.
Observers said Myint Swe, the former commander of the Rangoon Military
Regional Command who is reported to be junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s
right hand man, has been tapped to be the future prime minister of the
Rangoon Region.

Former Brig-Gen Aung Thein Lin, the Rangoon city mayor and a leader of the
USDP, is now the party candidate in South Okkalapa Township for the Lower
House. Dr. Paing Soe, the deputy minister of health who is Than Shwe's
family doctor and a relative of Than Shwe’s wife, Kyaing Kyaing, is the
party's Lower House candidate in Sanchaung Township of Rangoon City.

Labor Minister and former Maj-Gen Aung Kyi, who is also the liaison
officer between the junta and pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, is
the USDP candidate for the Lower House seat from Mingala Tawn Nyunt
Township.

Former Brig-Gen Maung Maung Thein, the minister of livestock and
fisheries, is the USDP candidate for the Lower House in Kayan Township,
and former Brig-Gen Thura Myint Maung, the minister of religious affairs,
is the party's candidate for the Lower House in Thongwa Township.

Energy Minister and former Brig-Gen Lun Thi is the USDP's Lower House
candidate in Kungyangon Township, and Soe Tha, the minister for national
planning and economic development, will contest the Lower House seat in
Twante Township.

Minister of Mining and former Brig-Gen Ohn Myint, and Deputy Minister of
Defense and former Maj-Gen Aye Myint, are reportedly the USDP's respective
Lower House candidates for Rangoon's Alone Township and Insein Township.

Former Maj-Gen Nyunt Tin, also the former minister of agriculture and
irrigation, is the USDP candidate for the National Assembly (Upper House)
of the Union Parliament.

Well-known business figures running as USDP candidates in the coming
elections are Khin Swe, a junta crony who has been on the US sanctions
list since Oct. 2007, Tin Tun Oo, co-publisher of The Myanmar Times
Weekly, and authors Myo Thant Tin and Tin Kha.

Khin Swe will contest for the Upper House in Rangoon Region’s No. 9
Constituency, and Myo Thant Tin is a candidate for the Upper House in
Rangoon Region’s No. 6 Constituency. Tin Tun Oo is the USDP candidate for
the Lower House in Pazun Taung Township.

Along with ministers and other public figures, USDP candidates include
owners of medium-sized businesses and respected local figures who the
Union Solidarity and Development Association (UDSA) recruited by force or
attracted with business opportunities during the past five years.

Shortly after the USDP was formed in April, all assets of the USDA were
transferred to the USDP.

The USDA was infamous for its involvement in the brutal ambush on
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy in late May 2003 and
for the crackdowns on monk demonstrators throughout the September 2007
protests.

____________________________________

September 16, Democratic Voice of Burma
‘Activists’ jail term extended by 20 years – Khin Hnin Htet

Seven people serving lengthy sentences for alleged links to a banned
Burmese activist group have had their prison terms extended by 20 years,
courts ruled yesterday.

The seven were already serving terms of between 20 and 38 years in
Rangoon’s Insein prison after being arrested in 2008 and accused of
holding ties to the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF), a
prominent activist group born from the 1988 mass student uprising.

But additional charges under the Explosives Act were levelled at Kyaw Zin
Oo, Zaw Lwin, Kyawza Lin, Htet Ko Lwin, Khin Yi, Aye Min Naing and his
wife San San Maw. They are accused of assisting in the 2004 bombing at
Zawgyi House Restaurant in Rangoon and the bombing at the Panorama Hotel
in Rangoon in 2005.

Sentences of ten years for each of the two attacks were handed down
yesterday, and all seven were found guilty.

“We are very unhappy with the sentences. The defendants had already been
given jail terms for the explosive materials submitted by the prosecutors
as evidences in 2008,” said lawyer Kyaw Ho, speaking of the group’s
initial arrest and separate charges under the Explosives Act, Unlawful
Associations Act and Arms Act in 2008.

He said that no evidence had been provided for the latest sentencing,
adding that “normally in cases under the Explosive Act, witnesses should
be included from the police’s Criminal Investigation Department and
chemical specialists”, although this had not been the case. Moreover, the
alleged accusation by the person behind the attack that netted the seven
was weak, he added.

The five men and two women are also facing accusations connecting them to
an explosion that took place at Shwe Mann Thu Bus Terminal in Rangoon in
2005.

In other news, the imprisoned 1990-elected parliamentary representative in
Burma’s western Arakan state, Nyi Pu, is in poor health. According to a
colleague of his who spoke to Nyi Pu’s wife, he is not receiving
healthcare for a condition that lowers the level of potassium in the
blood. He is being held in Kham Ti in Saganig division.

According to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political
Prisoners-Burma (AAPP), there are currently 2,183 activists, lawyers,
journalists, monks and politicians behind bars in Burma.
____________________________________

September 16, Xinhua
Myanmar re-grants visa-on-arrival for regions without Myanmar embassy set-up

Yangon – Myanmar has re-granted issue of visa-on-arrival for package tours
as a special case from regions where no Myanmar embassy is set up, the
local Popular News quoted tourism circle as reporting Thursday.

The re-grant came after Myanmar suspended such visa issue on Sept. 1 ahead
of the Nov. 7 multi-party general election.

The Myanmar authorities have tightened control of visa grant for world
tourists visiting the country, saying that tourist visa could only be
granted through the recommendation of the Ministry of Hotels and Tourism
in Nay Pyi Taw over a visa-on-arrival suspension period.

Normally, it takes two weeks to process the visa application for package
tour.

Myanmar's immigration authorities had granted visa-on-arrival for four
months from April 30 to Aug. 31 under its revised policy to promote
tourism.

The introduction of the visa-on-arrival system in Myanmar had raised the
number of tourist arrivals in the country.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

September 16, Shan Herald Agency for News
Tension spirals between junta, ceasefire groups after confrontations –
Hseng Khio Fah

Tension between the Burmese Army and ceasefire groups on the Sino-Burma
border have  gone up dramatically following a clash between the junta’s
army and Shan State Army (SSA) ‘North’ two days ago, local sources and
those from the Sino-Burma border said.

“It is a spontaneous action. The atmosphere is getting strained by the
day. The ceasefire sides have stepped up security especially at their main
bases facing the Burmese Army bases,” an informed source from the border
said.

On 14 September, at 17:40 (local time), a clash occurred between a patrol
of the Shan State Army (SSA) ‘North’s First Brigade led by Lieutenant
Hseng Harn and a Burmese Army patrol from Infantry Battalion (IB) #147,
based in Shan State North’s Khaihsim (its main base is in Nawngkaw in
Namtu Township) near Nam Phak Tope village, Tonkeng village tract, Hsipaw
township, between Hsipaw and Lashio, Shan State North capital. One SSA
fighter was injured, according to a SSA officer.

Villagers in the area said three died on the Burmese Army side. “We can’t
confirm the report,” he said.

The First Brigade was said to have been told by the Burmese Army to stay
within its boundary and not cross north of the Mongyai-Tangyan motor road.
Mongyai is located north of the First Brigade main bases, Tangyan in the
northeast, Monghsu in the southeast and Kehsi in the South.

The SSA is now conducting intensive checks on everyone who enters its
controlled areas and has also deployed more fighters to safeguard motor
roads around its main base Wanhai such as Tangyan-Monghsu and
Lashio-Monghsu motor roads.

Besides the SSA, the latest tension between the Burmese Army and United Wa
State Army (UWSA) is taking place at the Burmese Army’s strongest base Loi
Panglong, northwest of the Wa headquarters Panghsang, and near Manghseng.

Meanwhile, the Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) is at
loggerheads with the Burmese Army over the control of Loi Pangnao, the
second highest mountain in Shan State. It is 8,542 ft high. The highest is
Loi Leng, 8,777 ft, located in Mongyai Township. “Each is telling the
other to stay off the mountain and neither is leaving,” said a source
close to the group.

“Another bone of contention is Taping, the crossing of the Lwe, which
marks the natural boundary between the Burmese Army and the NDAA,” said a
businessman whose truck operates between Kengtung and Mongla. “Both sides
are closely checking traffic travelling across the river.”

The Northeastern Region Command has reportedly ordered its units to be on
a 24-hour standby including its civilian personnel. Earlier this month the
same instruction was given to civilian personnel in areas along the
Thai-Burma border.

Tension between the Burmese Army and ceasefire groups, the UWSA, Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), SSA ‘North’ and the NDAA have been soaring since
the junta’s latest deadline for the groups to disarm expired on 1
September. Both sides have been reinforcing their troops and are on
heightened alert after none of them accepted the junta’s plan.

The military junta says any group that failed to surrender by the deadline
will automatically become “an unlawful association.” When Naypyitaw
attacked Kokang in August, it first of all declared the Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) an unlawful organization.
ssa-n-troopsThere are only four groups (three and a quarter according to
some): Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), New Democratic
Army-Kachin (NDAK), Karenni Nationalities Peoples Liberation Front (KNPLF)
and Kachin Defense Army (KDA), which agreed to the BGF programme. The
MNDAA, better known as Kokang, was attacked in August 2009 after a faction
led by Bai Xuoqian agreed to accept it.

An analyst based on the Sino-Burma border observed tensions have
drastically spiraled soon after junta chief Than Shwe’s return from China.
“We don’t know whether a secret deal between the two countries has been
reached over their shared border,” he said.
According to an Asia Times report, two points stood out from Senior
General Than Shwe's highly anticipated visit: China's overt and
unequivocal support for the elections, and Myanmar's assurance that
security would be maintained during and after the polls. The latter is of
special concern to Beijing due to heightened tensions between Myanmar's
government and ethnic insurgent groups along their shared and
strategically significant border.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

September 16, Reuters
Myanmar expands private banks with military ties – Jason Szep

Bangkok – Myanmar is expanding the number of private banks in the
reclusive state ahead of November elections, a step that looks set to
strengthen the hand of businessmen with close ties to the ruling generals.

The banking expansion follows signs of rising investment in the
resource-rich country from neighbouring China and growing trade links to
Southeast Asia, but economists doubt more banks in the army-run country
will boost its capital-starved industries.

Instead, the increase in private banks to a total of 19, from 15
previously, illustrates a trend in which the military elite and their
allies look set to emerge as the financial powerbrokers of a new era of
civilian rule in the former Burma.

A Finance Ministry official said four businessmen have been authorised to
each open new banks ahead of the Nov. 7 elections.

The four are among the closest allies of the ruling generals and the
wealthiest civilians in one of Asia's most secretive economies at a time
when the top military brass are swapping fatigues for civilian clothes
ahead of the first elections in two decades and the first civilian
government in half a century.

One of the tycoons, Tay Za of the Htoo Group, has been identified by the
U.S. State Department as an arms dealer.

Another, Zaw Zaw, was hit with U.S. sanctions last year and a third, Nay
Aung, is the son of Myanmar's Industry Minister, a powerful figure seen as
a protege to supreme leader General Than Shwe.

The fourth businessman, property developer Chit Khaing, is also subject to
Western sanctions.

"They are symbolic in many ways of all that is wrong with Burma's economy
-- profit through connections, opaque," said Sean Turnell, an expert on
Myanmar's economy at Sydney's Macquarie University.

"CASH BOXES"

"It is hard to see the new banks as anything much more than 'cash boxes'
at the heart of the conglomerates that own them," he added. "They are
playthings to some extent but also as vehicles to access all manner of
concessions, foreign exchange, and to otherwise manipulate and disguise
money flows," added Turnell.

Economists generally dismiss banking as a dysfunctional industry in a
country blighted by decades of economic mismanagement and squeezed by
sanctions imposed by Western nations in response to human rights abuses.

Turnell estimates a mere 15 percent of domestic credit made its way to the
private sector in 2008/09. Over the last five years, the private sector's
share of credit has fallen by nearly 25 percent, crippling private
enterprise in a country where 30 percent of the population live in poverty
according to U.N. data.

Hardest hit is the agricultural sector, source of more than half of
Myanmar's economic output and lifeline to more than 70 percent of the
country's 50 million people. Agriculture receives just 0.4 percent of
credit created, said Turnell.

The vast bulk of credit supports the military regime.

The four businessmen run conglomerates considered top beneficiaries of a
wave of privatisation in which about 300 state assets -- from real estate
to ports, shipping companies and an airline -- were sold, mostly this
year.

Their four banks will be based in the capital Naypyitaw.

"We will do our best to modernise the banking industry. We will try to
offer small loans and introduce online services, ATMs and so on," said an
official at a new bank who declined to be identified because she was not
authorised to speak to the media.

Dozens of private banks owned by local and foreign companies operated in
Myanmar before sweeping nationalisation in 1964. Its military rulers
introduced a market economy after seizing power in 1988, allowing private
banks in 1992. (Additional reporting by Aung Hla Tun; Editing by Alex
Richardson)

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

September 16, Agence France Presse
Ban worried by Myanmar

United Nations - UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon on Wednesday expressed
concern at the dissolution of the political party of Myanmar opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

'The secretary general once again urges the Myanmar authorities to ensure
conditions for a fully inclusive and participatory electoral process,'
said a spokesman for Ban.

Mr Ban also 'expressed his frustration concerning access to the Myanmar
authorities,' the spokesman said.

Myanmar's election commission has announced that Aung San Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy had been abolished under poll rules for
failing to re-register ahead of the November 7 vote. Nine other parties
were also banned.

'The secretary general notes with some concern the decision by the Union
Election Commission to dissolve 10 political parties prior to the general
election, including the National League for Democracy,' said Ban's
spokesman Martin Nesirky.

An international meeting on Myanmar is expected to be held on the
sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Sept 27.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

September 16, Independent  (UK)
It's no laughing matter in Burma – Peter Popham

The generals who rule Burma have much to be proud of. How many other
regimes this repressive have produced a world-renowned comedian? North
Korean jokers doubtless exist but they have been very backward in coming
forward. During the Cold War Eastern European countries produced plenty of
jokes, but their authors kept their heads down until they were safely in
the West. In Libya, where seven years of fraternisation with Europe has
done little to improve the human rights situation, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi
and his family seem to have a lock on the comic's trade.

So in Zarganar (the name means "tweezers"), the Burmese comedian who is a
candidate for the European Parliament's Sakharov Prize for Freedom of
Thought this year, Senior-General Than Shwe and his colleagues have a real
feather in their cap. Sadly, they don't see it. Last time he was hauled up
before their judicial flunkies, he was sentenced to 59 years in jail. The
crime? Distributing aid to victims of 2008's disastrous cyclone without a
licence. On appeal the sentence was reduced to 35 years. You would need to
be fairly drunk to see the humour in that.

Zarganar has his own explanation for his difficulties with the courts. In
one sketch set in a cell, a fellow-prisoner asks him, "What are you in
for?"

"Don't you know?" Zarganar replies loftily, "I'm the Artist in Residence.
Let's say I want to take some time off from my busy schedule. Maybe
develop a new film script, or compose some poetry. Then I apply to come
here."

Prisoner: "How do you get the residency? Is there an interview procedure?"

Zarganar: "Of course. In 1988, Military Intelligence called me for
interview. That's when they broke my teeth. In 1990, it was more like an
audition. I told some jokes on stage during the election campaign. They
were so impressed, they invited me to stay here for four years ..."

A close friend of the comedian says that, during his time on the outside,
many ordinary Burmese saw Zarganar as a loudspeaker for their problems.
"He says he would never take a taxi if he was in a hurry," says the
friend, "because the driver would invariably drive him round and round and
round the block while he told him of his frustrations with the government
– in the hope that he would turn them into jokes..."

How Libya floats Italy's boat

Speaking of world-famous comedians, Colonel Gaddafi's navy added an
unusual post-script to their leader's visit to Italy last month when it
fired 30 bullets into the hull of an Italian fishing boat on Sunday. The
ship was operating 35 miles north of the Libyan coast, more than 20 miles
inside international waters – but Libya unilaterally claims 72 miles of
the Mediterranean as its own, regardless of international treaties. The
response of the Berlusconi government, whose commercial relationship with
Libya dwarfs even that of BP? "The captain knew he was fishing illegally,"
said foreign minister Franco Frattini. Italy's home minister Roberto
Maroni excused the Libyans with the explanation, "I imagine they believed
the fishing boat was full of immigrants." This response may appear to lack
humanity, but it showed consistency: it was the leader of Maroni's party,
the Northern League, who once urged the Italian navy to fire on immigrant
boats.

The ministers have their reasons for kowtowing before Libyan aggression.
When the Swiss cut up rough with Gaddafi recently, he urged Switzerland's
neighbours to divide the country up among themselves. Libyan friendship is
not something you can take for granted. It took years and a lot of money
for Italy to persuade the Libyans to stop the outflow of immigrants from
their shores – yet despite that agreement, during his recent trip to Rome,
Gaddafi threatened to flood Europe with Africans unless he was paid
another €5bn (£4.2bn) to stop them.

The Pope needs to do more than simply be nice

It will be too late to make any difference on this papal trip, but perhaps
the Vatican should consider investing in a rapid rebuttal unit of the sort
that revolutionised British politics when introduced into Millbank by
Alastair Campbell many moons ago. At present the Vatican never answers the
phone after midday, and rarely has anything substantive to offer in the
mornings either.

The papal spokesman, a Jesuit called Federico Lombardi, is much nicer than
his feared Opus Dei predecessor, but in the present rabidly hostile
climate niceness is not enough. The Pope's enemies – and there are few
enemies more ferocious than liberals defending their own intolerance –
have discovered that they can accuse him of practically anything and
suffer no consequences of any sort.

If such a unit existed it would, for example, point out that Cardinal
Ratzinger was not personally in charge of enforcing the church's law on
sexual abuse for 25 years but only after 2001 – which was when effective
action against the abuse plague began. It would also take issue with
claims that many thousands of children were raped by priests in the US and
Ireland: as the atheist columnist Brendan O'Neill points out on Spiked
Online, a closer look at the statistics shows that of the allegations made
by 10,667 people against priests in the US between 1950 and 2002, 1,203
were for alleged rape or attempted rape. A senior European diplomat
accredited to the Vatican told me: "79 per cent of paedophile allegations
turn out to be unfounded," which would leave a figure of 253, or about
five a year. Far too many, certainly.

____________________________________

September 16, Eurasia Review
Elections in Myanmar: It's all about exclusion – Medha Chaturvedi

The November 2010 elections in Myanmar do not promise to be fair and
inclusive nor do they come with the agenda of complete restoration of
democracy in the country. But, one thing these elections promise to be is
a step towards a transformation which comes with opportunities for some
important political changes in the future.

How significant are these changes going to be when the present situation
looks grossly unjust? How will the outcome be affected when the new
electoral laws have barred certain citizens including the most visible
supporter of democracy in the country, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi?  Are these
elections only an attempt by the military junta-backed State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC), the Union Solidarity and Development Party
(USDP) led by Prime Minister Thein Sein and the National Unity Party (NUP)
to legitimize and further consolidate their power?

The USDP and NUP have reportedly floated more than 1,100 and 980
candidates respectively, nationwide. A total of 1,163 seats will be
contested for national and state parliaments; this is in addition to the
25 per cent seats reserved for the military in parliament. However, USDP
is aiming to win an overwhelming 90 per cent seats, to ensure two out of
three vice-presidential candidates from the military.

The elections will be held in accordance to the new constitution which
came into effect after a similarly non-inclusive referendum in May 2008.
It forms the fifth step of the seven-step “road map to democracy”
announced by the SPDC. Following this, the sixth and seventh steps –
convening of elected representatives and building of a modern, democratic
nation, respectively will supposedly be pursued. The new Constitution and
election laws have provisions for exclusion of many sections, especially
those against the present regime. People are also questioning the validity
of the junta’s “attempts to restore democracy” in Myanmar when over 2,100
political prisoners are not being released and are barred from contesting
these elections under the provisions of the 2008 constitution.

At least two constitutional provisions – anyone with a criminal conviction
or who is married to a person of different nationality cannot participate
in the election process; exclude Suu Kyi from the electoral process. The
laws also forbid any group which employs and trains armed forces against
the ruling government, from forming a political party and thus, contesting
in the election. Hence, the majority of ethnic ceasefire groups, while
removed from the list of unlawful organizations, will not be granted the
right to any political process without first converting their armed forces
into a Border Guard Force functioning under the existing regime.

This may pose some problems as these groups are eventually likely to
prevent polling in territories they control which will again leave out a
large number of people from voting. The Shan and Karen states seem to be
the big casualties of these stipulations as it is highly unlikely that
there will be any polling there owing to the provision which states that
only conflict-free areas can hold elections.

Members of religious orders are also prohibited from affiliating
themselves to a political party and thus, contest elections. This implies
that the monks who protested against the government in 2008 cannot take
part in the electoral process.

Then there is Suu Kyi’s party, National League for Democracy (NLD), which
officially boycotted the elections. It is now conducting “voter education
camps” in several constituencies urging the people to reject the elections
by choosing to refrain from voting as provided in the Election Commission
Law. This is expected to further bring down the number of people
participating in the elections.

While it is evident that the Generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye, will step
down following the elections, their influence will still be felt quite
substantially in the new government. It is therefore safe to assume that
these elections will see the existing regime back in power, more dominant
than before as it would now have a legal sanction as the winner of a
nationwide election. The international community may or may not agree with
this expected outcome, but it would have to accept it nevertheless.

However, how does one accept an outcome whose entire foundation is
exclusion? For the present government, anyone who does not agree with them
is not welcome in the system. The junta-led government has decided that
even the slightest inclination to oppose the regime will result in
exclusion from the elections. Former American President Harry S. Truman
once remarked, “Once a government is committed to the principle of
silencing the voice of the opposition, it has only one way to go and that
is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a
source of terror for all its citizens and creates a country where everyone
lives in fear.” This holds true for Myanmar in the present context. The
credibility of the first Myanmarese elections in 20 years is at stake, but
the junta seems unperturbed.  The Myanmarese people’s long wait for
democracy in their country is far from over.


Medha Chaturvedi, Research Officer, IPCS, may be reached at
medhachaturvedi at gmail.com
____________________________________

September 16, Irrawaddy
The fate of the NLD – Kyaw Zwa Moe

The fact that Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy was
disbanded by Burma's ruling junta wasn't unexpected news. The government's
Election Commission announcement on Tuesday is just a legal phase of the
annihilation that the regime began plotting years ago.

The NLD registered as a political party on Sept. 27, 1988, nine days after
the military government, then known as the State Law and Order Restoration
Council, staged a bloody coup following the '88 nationwide uprising. This
month, 22 years later, the most popular party and the winner of the 1990
election was disbanded. Along with it, nine other parties, including
ethnic parties, were dissolved.

Yes, the party is now illegal. That means, any individual members of the
party will be more vulnerable than before when it comes to exercising
political or social activities. Thus, the freedom of the party's leading
members such as Vice Chairman Tin Oo, 83; veteran journalist-turned
politician Win Tin, 81; Suu Kyi's spokesperson, Nyan Win, as well as other
party members is at stake. They are all still strong critics of the
government's upcoming election and have campaigned not to vote in the
election as it would not be free and fair.

Increased harassment or arrest of active members of the party is highly
likely in the next phase of the regime's plan to destroy the party
completely. Although the party decided in March not to register to contest
the upcoming election, the NLD's recent efforts to stay active in public
affairs has clearly agitated the military government.

Anyway, consequences will also depend on what the NLD members attempt to
carry out in the months before and after the Nov. 7 election.

When talking about the NLD, no one can exclude Suu Kyi, who is still
believed to be the most influential person among the general public.
Though her voice was rarely heard during the past 14 years of her house
arrest, she's still the most feared political threat to the regime.

After her release, the 64-year-old Nobel laureate is expected to continue
what she calls “Burma's second struggle for independence.” We'll have to
wait and see if she can find a new role for her disbanded party.

According to Nyan Win, her lawyer, she should be released by Nov. 13. But
whether or not the generals will release her is still an open question.
The release date is only six days after the election and because the
generals fear her extraordinary popularity, they may well find an excuse
to keep her in detention longer, depriving her of the ability to criticize
the outcome of the election.

For years, Burma had strong opposition parties or groups. Even NLD efforts
were severely curtailed by the junta. Even so, there is no equivalent
political party among the 37 registered parties now contesting the
election.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently expressed “concern” over the
dissolution of the NLD and nine other parties. But the generals never
listened to such concerns. They are only concerned that almost all the
seats in the parliaments will be held by the incumbent generals and recent
generals-turned-“politicians” of the Union Solidarity and Development
Party led by Prime Minister Thein Sein.

The international community has consistently called  for inclusive, free
and fair elections, but in fact, even if the elections were fair, things
still wouldn't change for the better. The government-backed USDP is the
only one that's able to contest all 1,163 seats in the parliament, a fact
that can not be overcome by pro-democracy candidates. And finally, the
Constitution guarantees the military will occupy 25 percent of the seats
in parliament.

Everything is in place for the generals to continue ruling the country:
from within the parliament.

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

September 15, Mizzima News
Democratic Party to focus efforts on lower house, leader says

Chiang Mai – Most of the 47 candidates submitted by the Democratic Party
(Myanmar) led by Thu Wai will contest seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw (lower
house), standing for Rangoon, Mandalay, Pegu and Tenasserim divisions, and
Mon and Arakan states.

Mizzima’s Ko Wild spoke to the Rangoon division Mingalar Taungnyunt
constituency Pyithu Hluttaw (lower house) candidate, who said his party
had to fear orders coming from above because most of the Union Election
Commission (UEC) members were army officers.

Q: How many candidates from your party passed UEC scrutiny?

A: Three candidates were taken from our list before it was submitted to
the UEC. Now that Hla Myint has been rejected by the UEC 
 I think 47
finally passed. Two candidates withdrew the nominations they submitted as
their families had objected to them participating. They are from Pathein
[township, Irrawaddy] and Shwepyithar [township Rangoon]. In the
beginning, we had 51 candidates.

Q: In which assembly have you fielded the most candidates and why?

A: The Pyithu Hluttaw (lower house). We had wanted to field candidates in
all constituencies but we had to stand only in the constituencies we could

 Many wanted to contest seats in the lower house as opposed to the
Nationalities Hluttaw (upper house). Our candidates must bear their
canvassing expenses and candidate deposits out of their own pockets. The
upper house constituencies are bigger than those of the lower house, with
more eligible voters. Some of those in the upper house comprise four or
five townships and would’ve cost candidates more.

Q: Did your party hold meetings with eight independent candidates?

A: Not often. Independent candidates are doing canvassing work themselves
and our party is doing its own work. But since most of our candidates are
not fielded in their constituencies, we can help them. Likewise, they can
help us in our constituencies too. This is just an understanding among us
and that’s all. It’s not a very significant development.

Q: One of the eight, Dr. Phone Win, said one of your candidates is running
in his constituency. Please explain.

A: Yes, Ko Phone Win and our candidate Aung Than Myint are standing in the
same constituency. The latter is an executive committee member of our
party 
We fielded our own candidate before having co-ordination meetings
with the independents.

Q: Do you have any links to the National Democratic Front (NDF)?

A: Not yet. But personally, we are old acquaintances and are on friendly
terms with them.

Q: What do you think of the UEC notice on the right to canvass on radio
and television?

A: Fifteen minutes is not bad. We had only 10 minutes in 1990 but there
are major differences in the restrictions. There were no such controls in
the 1990 general election. We had to submit our draft copy of speeches to
be delivered on radio and TV and they were subject to censorship, but
that’s all. This time, however, a lot of restrictions have been imposed on
us. We don’t know yet what speeches we have to give.

Q: How will you cope with the nine restrictions listed in the UEC notice?

A: All these restrictions seem imposed at the will of the government and
the electoral commission. They can do whatever they like, whether they
take action or not. For instance, the restriction says not to stimulate
sedition or give any talks that can tarnish the image of the state. So if
we point out the drawbacks and weaknesses in the state, they can take
action against us with this restriction. It all depends on them.

Q: So, what shall you do?

A: We must take this opportunity and we must speak cleverly. Under our
objectives, we shall say what drawbacks are in our country and how we
shall tackle these issues, but not in directly attacking government – we
can’t do that.

Q: What differences have you noticed between the current UEC and the 1990
body?

A: The two commissions are quite different. The former commission was
constituted with experienced elders. Though they had a close rapport with
the government at the time, they didn’t blindly follow the dictates of the
government. But most of the current commission members are retired army
officers, who are used to following orders. In Rangoon Division, we have
found that the district and divisional level UECs don’t know the electoral
laws and rules very well, which means they can work only when they receive
orders from above.

Q: Now you have known constituencies and candidates, in which areas does
your party expect to win?

A: We regard that we will win most of the constituencies we contest. We
don’t have any fears of contesting against candidates from either the USDP
or NUP but we have to contest against candidates fielded by what we might
call pro-democracy forces or the opposition. So the confusion surrounding
the issue means that I can’t answer this question definitely.