BurmaNet News, October 28, 2010

[Editor]

October 28, 2010 Issue #4071


INSIDE BURMA
New Zealand Herald: Villagers defy regime with boycott call
Irrawaddy: Dam water inundates 20 villages

ON THE BORDER
VOA: Thai clinic aiding Burmese refugees low on funds

ASEAN
DPA: ASEAN summit opens with no mention of Myanmar elections
AFP: Myanmar junta chief's 'retirement' unlikely: Philippines
Bangkok Post: Asean wants a joint poll observer team to Burma
Bangkok Post: Rights body leaves public 'clueless'

REGIONAL
VOA: Human rights issues, Burma likely to factor in Obama Asia trip
DVB: India cautions on ‘adverse’ UN probe

INTERNATIONAL
AP: AP Interview: UN chief says Myanmar elections not legitimate if
political prisoners not freed
Reuters: Obama admin. split on Burma engagement: senator

OPINION / OTHER
Wall Street Journal: Don't legitimize Burma's elections – Ashin Issariya
Guardian (UK): Burma needs a war crimes inquiry – Elaine Pearson
DPA: ANALYSIS: Post-election offensive feared against Myanmar rebel groups





____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 28, The New Zealand Herald
Villagers defy regime with boycott call

Tokyo – In what are believed to be the first public demonstrations to
occur in Myanmar in the lead-up to next month's election, more than a
thousand villagers from ethnic minority regions mobilised this week in
opposition to the regime.

A 500-strong gathering of ethnic-minority villagers calling for a November
7 election boycott occurred near Kyawn village between Ye and Thanbyuzayat
townships in Mon state, according to reports on Burmese-language Radio
Free Asia.

A villager who joined the demonstration said protesters had come from 10
different villages in the area and assembled and dispersed quickly as a
tactic.

"We demand the results of the 1990 election be recognised and call for a
boycott of the 2010 election, which is unacceptable to the Burmese people
and the international community," he said.

"We want to show that we do not agree with the 2010 election, which will
guarantee long-term rule for military dictatorship."

Another protest, in Kya-in Seikkyi in Karen state, was joined by around
700 people from 155 different villages.

A demonstrator said that protest was made up of people from the Shan,
Karen and Mon minority groups "who have lost their right to vote".

This loss of voting rights followed a September 16 announcement by the
regime's Election Commission that voting would not take place in 3314
ethnic villages. It was a move that would disfranchise around 1.5 million
ethnic voters, said pro-democracy network Altsean's Burma Bulletin.

The Karen state demonstrator added that they demanded an end to military
rule, and wanted the regime to enter into a tripartite dialogue with Aung
San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy and ethnic groups to "build a
democratic Burma".

The Karen state protest was the second in the past week. On October 21 a
similar protest was held by 500 villagers. A small anti-election protest
was held at Yangon's crowded Hledan crossroads on Monday.

The leaders of these protests have reportedly gone into hiding.

It is not known how the regime will respond to the demonstrations, but Bo
Kyi from the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a human
rights group working on the Thai-Myanmar border, said he feared the worst.

"The risk for those who speak out against the regime is well known:
arrest, imprisonment, torture and sometimes death.

"Despite this risk, these brave villagers spoke out and publicly protested
against what they believe is a sham election designed to legitimise
military rule - an election which more than one million ethnic people are
being denied the right to participate in."

Bo Kyi added that since 2007 the number of political prisoners had doubled
and 2193 people were in prison for their peaceful political activities.

A heightened military presence was reported in downtown Yangon at the
weekend, and riot-police trucks were on standby near Shwedagon Pagoda, one
of the key protest sites in the 2007 monk-led "Saffron Revolution".
____________________________________

October 28, Irrawaddy
Dam water inundates 20 villages – Ko Htwe

Twenty villages in Burma's Magwe Division and large areas of farmland were
inundated when water was released from a swollen dam, according to local
residents.
A sluice gate at the dam was opened without prior warning, they said.

Houses were destroyed and livestock swept away, said Thein Aung, a
resident of one of the inundated villages, Sinphyukyun, in Magwe
Division's Salin Township.

Heavy rains accompanying Cyclone Giri caused the Salin River to burst its
banks and filled the local dam to capacity. Flood water reached 5ft in
some villages, residents said.

The road between Sinphyukyun and Chauk was cut when flood waters destroyed
a bridge. Electricity masts in Chauk and many trees were flattened by the
cyclone that accompanied the floods.

Ninety percent of the onion fields in Pakoku Township were wiped out by
the floods. Preparations of the fields for winter crop cultivation were
also disrupted.

Magwe was one of the worst hit regions when Cyclone Giri swept through
western Arakan State with winds of up to 80 miles per hour.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 28, Voice of America
Thai clinic aiding Burmese refugees low on funds – Ron Corben

Mae Sot – A clinic in Thailand that has served refugees from Burma for two
decades is seeing increasing demand for its services.

It is another busy morning at the Mao Tao clinic in the northwestern Thai
border town of Mae Sot. Newborns cry as mothers and friends offer support.

This clinic offers a range of services - immunizations, tuberculosis
drugs, minor surgery, in-patient care. It even offers prosthetic limbs to
refugees who have been victims of the landmines left from decades of
ethnic conflict in Burma.

Dr. Cynthia Muang, one of thousands to flee Burma after the military's
1988 crackdown on pro-democracy forces, set up the clinic 20 years ago.

It now treats more than 150,000 patients a year, and demand is rising as
health services in eastern Burma deteriorate.

Half of the clinic's patients cross over from Burma for treatment and then
go home. The remainder are among the tens of thousands of Burmese citizens
who work in Thailand, in factories or on farms.

Waiting outside the delivery room, Myint Myint Moe, 24, a farm worker in
Thailand, prepares for the birth of her child.

Myint Myint says she is happy to come to the clinic because for migrant
workers there is nowhere else to go. She says she is hoping for a girl.

Eh Poh, a midwife who advises women on ante-natal health, says the
clinic's role goes beyond delivering babies, to teaching women basic
health care.

"When I arrived we had delivery already two to three women - normal
delivery without complication, also one in labor now ready. We [also] give
education to the women who already delivery; how to take care of the baby,
breastfeeding. We have to give education like in nutrition. Sometime they
believe that when they are pregnant they cannot eat like some vegetable,"
Eh Poh explaines.

Last year, the clinic delivered almost 3,000 babies, and 9,000 new mothers
received care.

Terry Smith is an American doctor at the clinic. He says Burma's weak
health care system means many of the women suffer from serious underlying
illnesses.

"A very high incidence of malaria and malaria is bad for pregnancies. It
causes fetal loss, miscarriages; it causes severe anemia which makes it
very difficult for the women," he said.  "The other problem is that a lot
of women lose their pregnancies because of malnutrition, because of
infection, because of poor family planning, and they have short child
spacing, spontaneous miscarriages."

Smith, who has worked in Latin America and South Asia, says the thousands
of people internally displaced due to fighting in eastern Burma between
the army and ethnic groups means health services are run down or
non-existent.

"There is no good health system in Burma - at least in eastern Burma. The
people that come here - there's no public health, there's no mosquito
control, there's no sanitation, there's no clean water, there's no
hospitals, there's nothing," Smith says, "People have to fend for
themselves and they depend upon getting help from other people."

The clinic works in close partnership with Thai medical services, and
sends patients to hospitals in the northern city of Chiang Mai for major
surgery.

But the charity is struggling to meet growing needs. The global economic
slowdown led donors to cut funding.

Eh Thwa, a spokeswoman for the clinic, says the growing demands and
funding shortfalls place more pressure on the clinic. "Every year we see
more patients. Also we have three main activities; we look after the sick
patient, the second is [medical] trainee program for [people in] Burma or
in the refugee camps; also child protection - we have a boarding house - a
school," Eh said.

Major surgery, such as those for congenital heart problems, taken for
granted in the West, is beyond the reach of many Burmese who reach the
clinic.

Families often sell their homes to pay for a child's operation in Burma
only to receive inadequate treatment. With no option left, families take
the sometimes dangerous trip to Thailand so a child can receive care
through the clinic.

The doctors at the clinic say there are fears that after Burma holds its
first elections in 20 years, on November 7, the military government may
crack down on rebellious ethnic groups or dissidents. That could send even
more refugees across the border, and many of them will need medical care.

____________________________________
ASEAN

October 28, Deustche Press Agentur
ASEAN summit opens with no mention of Myanmar elections

Hanoi – A summit meeting of the Association of South-East Asian Nations
(ASEAN) opened Thursday with the signing of a series of agreements to
harmonize regional trade, communication and transport.

Leaders attending the summit made no public reference to the most
controversial regional issue, the upcoming elections in Myanmar, and only
alluded to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which have
preoccupied the region over the past year.

In his opening speech, Nguyen Tan Dung, prime minister of host nation
Vietnam, said ASEAN needed to 'promote the development of common norms and
codes of conduct in the relations among countries.'

The remarks referred to efforts by Vietnam and other ASEAN members to
pressure China to negotiate a legally binding agreement on conduct in the
disputed waters of the South China Sea. China claims most of the sea as
its own, and has detained hundreds of Vietnamese fishing boats over the
past year.

Dung did not mention Myanmar's November 7 polls, which human rights
advocates say are likely to violate clauses in ASEAN's Human Rights
Charter.

But a member of the Philippine delegation said concerns over the election
would likely be raised in private meetings by President Benigno Aquino III
and other leaders of democratic ASEAN states.

'Traditionally the head of government of Myanmar briefs his counterparts,
and naturally there will be reaction and discussion,' said Victoria
Bataclan, head of the ASEAN office in Manila.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The body was long regarded
as an ineffectual talk shop, but has moved in recent years to exercise
more power on both economic and diplomatic fronts.

In 2007 the group adopted a binding charter, including provisions for a
human rights body, but its meetings are still known for aversion to
conflict or to taking up issues that may embarrass a member state.

The issues of Myanmar and of conflict in the South China Sea may receive a
fuller airing on Saturday, when the follow-on East Asia Summit convenes.
The group includes the 10 ASEAN member states along with Australia, China,
India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea.

The United States and Russia have been invited to join.

The US is represented by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who
has been urged by human-rights advocates and congressmen to put human
rights on the summit's agenda.

____________________________________

October 28, Agence France Presse
Myanmar junta chief's 'retirement' unlikely: Philippines

Hanoi – Myanmar has said that its military ruler Than Shwe will bow out of
politics after next month's elections, but the assurances should be viewed
with deep scepticism, the Philippines said Thursday.

"I cannot imagine that after two decades where he held on to power he will
suddenly give it up and no more. I cannot believe that," Philippines
Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo said on the sidelines of a regional
summit.

Romulo said his Myanmar counterpart Nyan Win had confirmed at the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Hanoi that Than
Shwe would not take part in the November 7 polls.

"He said he will not run. But you know they can elect anybody who did not
run," he told reporters, referring to the process under which a president
and vice-presidents will be appointed.

"It remains to be seen (whether he will bow out), but my feeling is that
he will be elected to a higher office, perhaps the presidency, something
where he still (holds) control."

A foreign ministry official from one of the ASEAN delegations also said
Nyan Win had said Than Shwe would not run for any seat in the November 7
polls -- widely criticised as a sham aimed at cementing the junta's grip
on power.

"Than Shwe is not running. He will bow out of the political scene," the
source told AFP.

Under Myanmar's new parliamentary system, there will be two national
assemblies -- one lower and one upper house -- and a number of regional
assemblies.

The source said that Nyan Win reported he was himself running for a post
in the one of the regional assemblies and was sure to win because he
enjoyed strong popularity in his region.

But, being a regional lawmaker, he won't be eligible for a cabinet post.

Myanmar also introduced its new flag during a meeting of senior officials
on Monday, according to the source. The banner features a large, lone star
which is meant to represent the country's unity.

Than Shwe's future has been the subject of much rumour in Myanmar lately,
with many scenarios envisioned. But after the biggest military reshuffle
in decades which took place in September -- which left him on top of the
heap in the military -- several experts have tipped him to move into the
presidency.

____________________________________

October 28, Bangkok Post
Asean wants a joint poll observer team to Burma

Hanoi – Asean asked Burma to include the Asean joint observers team for
the November 7 election, according to Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya.

He told The Nation that at the informal dinner meeting last night, Asean
foreign ministers discussed the situation inside Burma and the upcoming
poll on November 7 including the South China Sea dispute and the Asean
Connectivity.

Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win briefed them on the overall preparation
including the permission to allow representatives of UN agencies and
diplomatic community in Nayphidaw to observe the election. No other
foreign delegations or observers as well as media are allowed to observer
or cover the election, which has been condemned around the world.

Win was quoted as saying that each agency and diplomatic mission can send
up to five representatives to observe any poll station if a request has
been made in advance.

____________________________________

October 28, Bangkok Post
Rights body leaves public 'clueless' – Achara Ashayagachat

Most people remain at a loss about what the Asean Inter-governmental
Commission on Human Rights has been doing in its first year, a report
says.

The Solidarity for Asian People's Advocacy Task Force on Asean and Human
Rights said yesterday the regional human rights body was mere window
dressing for Asean's commitment to human rights.

The AICHR shares little information with the public on what it is doing,
the group said in a report, Hiding Behind Its Limits, launched in Bangkok
yesterday.

Forum-Asia's manager of Asean advocacy, Atnike Nova Sigiro, said the body
carried out little meaningful consultation with civil society and other
stakeholders.

She gave the body a score of five on a scale of one to 10.

"The AICHR is an infant that needs more nutrition and support from others
including civil society," Ms Sigiro said.

Ryan Silverio, of the Southeast Asia Child Rights Coalition, said he gave
the AICHR a full 10 out of 10 despite its many shortcomings such as
bureaucratic red tape.

"At least they give civil society space to engage in the causes of women
and children," Mr Silverio said.

Cheery Zahau, a programme coordinator for the Human Rights Education
Institute of Burma, said the United Nations was inquiring into Burma's
human rights record. She said she had yet to hear if the AICHR backed the
inquiry.

Nor is the group actively pushing for transparency in Burma's coming
election, she said.

"It's disappointing to see the only regional human rights body falling
silent about what's going on in Burma," said Ms Cheery, a Chin ethnic
activist.

"They have yet to take a critical look at the 2008 constitution which
grants immunity for past crimes to any military officers who are elected."

Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's Asia division,
said the honeymoon between the AICHR and Asean non-governmental
organisations was over.

He said advocates were tired of hearing how "historic" the regional body
was. They wanted to see some results.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 27, Voice of America
Human rights issues, Burma likely to factor in Obama Asia trip – Dan Robinson

U.S. officials say human rights issues are likely to be discussed during
President Obama's upcoming visits next month to India and three other
Asian democracies.

The first national election allowed by Burma's ruling military in two
decades takes place on November 7, one day after President Obama arrives
in India for a three-day stay at the beginning of his four nation Asian
tour.

The United States, other governments, and human rights organizations say
it's unlikely that the election in Burma can be free and fair.

Burmese democracy figure Aung San Suu Kyi, whose National League for
Democracy (N.L.D.) won an overwhelming victory in a 1990 election, remains
in house arrest. More than 2,000 political prisoners remain in jail.

Burma's military formally dissolved the NLD earlier this year after it
announced it would boycott the election. The military has also announced
that foreign journalists will be not be allowed to cover the voting.

During a White House news briefing focusing on the Indian leg of President
Obama's Asia trip, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs
William Burns was asked if Mr. Obama will address human rights issues with
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and at other points on the Asia
trip.

Burns repeated the U.S. position that based on everything seen so far,
there are serious doubts about whether the November 7 election can be free
and fair. He repeated Washington's call for the immediate release of Aung
San Suu Kyi and political prisoners.

He was non-commital about what the president may specifically discuss with
Prime Minister Singh, but said the overall U.S emphasis on human rights
issues will continue.

"We have a very active dialogue with India about a whole range of regional
issues and that does include Burma, and so again I can't predict exactly
what the conversations are going to be, but I think you will continue to
see a strong emphasis from the president and from the U.S. on human rights
issues across Asia and the Pacific," he said.

Deputy National Security Council Adviser for Strategic Communication, Ben
Rhodes, said it is not a "coincidence" that President Obama is visiting
four Asian democracies, since a key objective of the trip is to underscore
the success of democracy in Asia and around the world.

Rhodes said the U.S. will "speak specifically to human rights and
democracy issues in India and every stop during the president's trip," and
indicated that Burma is likely to come up at some point.

"While I can't pre-judge the outcome of that election, we have expressed
concerns about it in ASEAN. We have expressed it in our bilateral channels
to key governments in the region. If the election does not meet the kinds
of standards that we would like to see it meet, as Bill [Undersecretary
Burns] said every indication is that it won't, I am sure it will be
something that will come up during the course of the trip," Rhodes said.

The remarks are the first indication of the degree to which the election
in Burma and its outcome may come into play in discussions President Obama
holds, either in India, which has been expanding economic and trade ties
with Burma, and his next stops in Indonesia, South Korea and Japan.

The statements did little to clarify whether President Obama has moved
closer to taking a step required under U.S. sanctions-related legislation
-- appointing a special representative and policy coordinator for Burma.

Earlier this year, the White House said it expected such an appointment to
be made "soon".  NSC official Rhodes said only that it is something the
administration is looking at, but added he would have nothing to say on it
at at present.

The Obama administration has pursued a policy of engagement with Burma's
military, hoping this would help encourage change, achieve freedom for
political prisoners and Aung San Suu Kyi, and help bring about a
legitimate political dialogue in the country.

Earlier this year, the administration said it fully expects this process
to be long and difficult and "remains committed to continuing the policy"
beyond the November 7 election in Burma.

____________________________________

October 28, Democratic Voice of Burma
India cautions on ‘adverse’ UN probe – Dan Withers

India has questioned the value of holding a UN Commission of Inquiry (CoI)
into war crimes in Burma, an Indian diplomat recently told a General
Assembly committee.

The probe, now supported by more than a dozen nations, may be “counter
productive” and “end up adversely affecting the very people it is supposed
to help,” Acquino Vimal said, according to the Press Trust of India.

Vimal pointed out that UN chief Ban Ki-Moon’s recent report on Burma made
no mention of the CoI, which was first proposed in March by UN special
rapporteur on human rights in Burma, Tomás Ojea Quintana. “We believe that
the focus of efforts of the international community should be on ensuring
constructive engagement with Myanmar [Burma],” Vimal said.

In comments which bore a striking resemblance to Chinese policy on Burma,
Vimal also stressed the importance of “peace and stability” on India’s
borders. Burma’s controversial 7 November elections would be a “step
forward” in the country’s “national reconciliation process and democratic
transition,” he added.

The diplomat’s comments come days after Nobel-prize winning Indian
economist Amartya Sen made a statement bemoaning his country’s policies
towards the Burmese regime. In July, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
welcomed junta leader Senior General Than Shwe on a state visit to India.

“It breaks my heart to see the prime minister of my democratic country –
and one of the most humane and sympathetic political leaders in the world
– engage in welcoming the butchers from Burma and to be photographed in a
state of cordial proximity,” AFP quoted Sen as saying. India had forgotten
its ideals and was emulating China because of fears over its communist
rival’s growing influence in the region, he said.

While India used to offer unqualified support to Burma’s democracy
movement, over the past two decades it has changed tack. The country is
now investing heavily in Burma, particularly in the energy and extraction
industries, and maintains a strategic partnership with the country in a
bid to counter growing Chinese influence in the region.

Momentum behind the UN commission of inquiry, which would investigate war
crimes and crimes against humanity by the junta and Burma’s ethnic rebel
armies, appears to be flagging. Although 13 countries, led by the United
States, back the probe, the Washington Post recently revealed that China
is engaged in a diplomatic campaign to scupper the investigation.

Professor Ian Holliday, a specialist in China-Burma relations at the
University of Hong Kong, recently told DVB that the Chinese Communist
Party may also fear investigations into its own human rights record. “The
core concern is not to allow anybody to stick their nose into China,” he
said.

China and Burma maintain an uneasy alliance, with the larger country
enjoying access to Burma’s resources and backing the junta on the
international stage. China is also believed to see the military as the
best bet for ensuring stability on its borders.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 28, Associated Press
AP Interview: UN chief says Myanmar elections not legitimate if political
prisoners not freed – Vijay Joshi

Phnom Penh, Cambodia — The United Nations chief warned Thursday that
unless Myanmar's junta frees political prisoners its planned Nov. 7
elections may not be considered legitimate or credible.

Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon told The Associated Press in an interview
that freeing the more than 2,000 political prisoners in Myanmar would at
least help create a "perception that this election will be more
inclusive."

The Southeast Asian country's military rulers have enacted laws that
prevent pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political
prisoners from contesting the elections, which have been slammed by
critics as a sham.

Ban acknowledged that the political prisoners may not be "able to actually
participate in the vote, but it will create a favourable political
atmosphere which will make this perception better."

"But without releasing all political prisoners then there may certainly be
some issue of legitimacy or credibility," he said in an interview ahead of
his bilateral meeting with Myanmar Prime Minister Gen. Thein Sein in Hanoi
this week.

This is the closest that Ban has come to criticizing the elections after
repeatedly taking a diplomatic tone by urging the junta to make the
elections more inclusive, fair and credible. But even his latest comments
were tempered by hope that the junta would surprise everybody by making
some concessions to the pro-democracy movement in a country that has been
ruled by the military since 1962.

The junta has kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 of the past 21 years.
She is expected to be released on Nov. 13, just six days after the
election.

"We expected and hoped that she should have been released much earlier.
Now at this time I would strongly urge the Myanmar authorities that it is
not too late even at this time to release all political prisoners so that
the Nov. 7 elections could be more inclusive and more participatory and
credible one," Ban said.

The junta has touted the elections as a big step forward in the country's
so-called roadmap to democracy. But the results are considered a foregone
conclusion, as the junta has already taken steps to block transparency and
ensure that the military remains in power by repressing the country's main
opposition party and limiting campaigning.

Suu Kyi's party is boycotting the elections as undemocratic after winning
a landslide victory in 1990 that was dismissed by the military leaders.

That leaves the key junta-backed party as the only strong contender to win
the upcoming contest.

Ban sidestepped the question of whether the government that takes power
after the elections would be considered legitimate or democratic.

"I am not in a position to judge any results, first of all. What I am
emphasizing is that the Myanmar authorities should ensure all possible
measures to make this election inclusive, credible and transparent," he
said. "There will be an opportunity for me and the international comuntity
to make a judgment on this process."

He dismissed suggestions that the U.N. had failed in its effort to
democratize Myanmar, and instead blamed the Myanmar government.

"It is surely because of a lack of support, lack of political will on the
part of Myanmar authorities," he said, adding that the U.N. will "continue
to be engaged" with Myanmar after the elections.

"We will continue to facilitate this political, democratization process,"
he said.

____________________________________

October 27, Reuters
Obama admin. split on Burma engagement: senator

Washington – President Barack Obama's administration faces internal
divisions that have so far prevented it from seizing opportunities to
engage Myanmar's military rulers, a key senator said on Wednesday.

Senator Jim Webb, the chair of a Senate subcommittee on East Asia who
traveled to Myanmar last year, is an outspoken proponent of deepening ties
with the isolated country, which he said risked becoming a "a province of
China" otherwise.

The Obama administration last November launched the highest-level talks
with the reclusive junta in 14 years, but has since publicly expressed
deep disappointment with Myanmar's response to U.S. outreach.

"I don't think that this administration took advantage of the
opportunities that were presented to it," Webb told a small group of
defense reporters in Washington.

Webb said U.S. diplomats at the State Department were divided over the
issue, and effectively failed to act on diplomatic signals from Burma last
year that offered an opportunity for "a different formula" on engagement.

"There was a big division in the State Department over whether to do that
or not," he said.

"I think Secretary (of State Hillary) Clinton was inclined to a certain
point to want to try. But there was an awful lot of pressure on the other
side."

The comments come ahead of a trip by Clinton to this week's East Asia
summit in Vietnam, and just days before Myanmar's November 7 elections,
which rights groups deride as a sham designed to entrench military power
in the country formerly known as Burma.

The elections will be the first since 1990 polls won by detained
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
(NLD) party but ignored by the junta.

Washington has dismissed preparations for the November polls as failing to
meet basic democratic standards, and has also expressed concern over
growing ties between Myanmar and Asian nuclear renegade North Korea.

"It's a very complicated issue, because we all respect Aung San Suu Kyi
and the sacrifices she has made," Webb said. "And yet, on the other hand,
we are in a situation where if we do not push some form of constructive
engagement, Burma is going to basically become a province of China."

(Reporting by Phil Stewart and Andrew Quinn)

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 28, Wall Street Journal
Don't legitimize Burma's elections – Ashin Issariya

The government that emerges after Nov. 7 will be no less corrupt and
unlawful than the present one.

All actions are based on intentions. For instance, the goal of monks is to
bring peace and kindness to the people, and so Burmese trust their
actions. In contrast, when the military regime says they will hold
elections, Burmese are skeptical because they know the intention is only
to maintain power at their expense.

When Burma's monks marched through the streets in 2007, we did so because
we saw the pain of the people, and knew we had to respond. People have
suffered needlessly for many years because of the military system of
control and intimidation.

Our involvement in what would become the Saffron Revolution began Sept. 5
in the town of Pakokku in Magway Division. We began our peaceful
demonstration by reciting the prayers of loving kindness, urging the
authorities to open their eyes and finally take action to alleviate the
sorrows of the people. In response, local authorities and members of the
military-supported civilian group, the Union Solidarity and Development
Association, violently attacked my brothers.

In response to this horrific insult, we, the monks of the All Burma Monk's
Alliance, demanded an apology from the authorities who purport to be
Buddhist. No apology has ever come.

The same organization that participated in that violent crackdown is now
masquerading as a political party, the Union Solidarity and Development
Party, in the upcoming elections. The people of Pakokku remember the
September 2007 attacks and are very upset to see the perpetrators now
presenting themselves as candidates. This story of the corrupt elite
taking political power in Pakokku is repeating itself throughout the
country right now.

The USDP's members are running uncontested in many areas because of wide
restrictions on any independent political parties. And where there are
other parties, the USDP is doing everything it can to manipulate the
process and ensure a win. Moreover, people are hesitant to participate
because this is not a real election; it is just more of the same
deceptions that always happen in my country under the generals.

Like most people of Burma, I am all too familiar with the schemes that the
military regime uses to maintain its power. Once when I opened a library
in my town so that people could have some access to knowledge, the USDA
came and wanted to take books from my library. I would not give them the
books because I knew their only interest was to take photos and claim they
had built the library. This is the type of social manipulation the USDA is
known for. When a road needs to be built in an area, the USDA goes house
to house forcing families to give large amounts of money or even to help
build the road themselves. Then when the road is finished, the USDA
proclaims that it has helped the people by building the road.

In such a system, there are endless barriers for people who seek to build
a better society. Monks are not free to even give the sermons they would
like. Recently, the regime's Minister of Livestock Breeding and Fisheries
Maung Maung Thein, a former Brigadier General who is now running for
office, held a ceremony in Thabya village, Tenasserim Division. During the
ceremony, a young monk preached about the sin of killing. As a result,
district authorities disrobed the monk. For that monk, this is a deep
humiliation and an end to his heartfelt vocation, as well as a great loss
to our religious community. It is a sacrilege to be disrobed. What price
is that to pay for speaking the truth?

Even though monks cannot vote in these upcoming elections, we cannot
remain silent. Despite restrictions, monks are still taking measures to
educate people about the problems of the elections, including distributing
leaflets and stamping money with boycott slogans. This is done with great
risk. In September, monk U Okkantha, who was arrested for anti-election
campaigning, was sentenced to 15 years in prison.

Nevertheless, the work continues and we are finding ways to act. We do
this because we know these elections are a lie that will not improve the
lives of the people. After the election, Burma's ruling class will sit in
the new parliament buildings in the isolated capital Naypyidaw. There they
will pretend to work, far away from the harsh reality of the lives of the
people of Burma. And what's even more, the new constitution gives the
military complete independence from any civilian control and they will be
able to continue their campaigns of persecution. How is this supposed to
improve our country?

I am confused why people in the international community want to wait and
see what the elections will bring. The people of Burma already know what
will happen. It will be the same faces and the same system that we have
been living with for decades. The name "elections" does not change
anything for us.

International leaders should think more deeply. Supporting these elections
is not supporting gradual progress to democracy; rather it is a message to
the suffering people of Burma that international support is given to the
military regime and their friends to continue to do what they will. A
different message must be sent.

The monks' religious boycott of alms from Burma's corrupt elite that began
after the violence of 2007 is ongoing. We still demand the release of
monks and all political prisoners and call for an end to the people's
suffering. And for these purposes, myself and others will continue to
organize and act.

The Venerable Ashin Issariya, also known as King Zero, is a founding
member of the All Burma Monks Alliance.

____________________________________

October 28, Guardian (UK)
Burma needs a war crimes inquiry – Elaine Pearson

The proposed UN inquiry would call the Burmese regime to account, but it
depends on global support that's so far lacking.

Support for an international commission of inquiry into war crimes in
Burma got a major boost as the UN's special rapporteur on Burma, Tomas
Ojea Quintana, strengthened his call for a commission of inquiry into
violations of international law in Burma. "Failing to act on
accountability in Myanmar will embolden the perpetrators of international
crimes and further postpone long-overdue justice," he said in a report
delivered to the UN general assembly last week.

Since Quintana first broached the issue in his March 2010 report, more
than a dozen countries – including the UK, France, US, Canada and
Australia – have publicly voiced their support for a commission of
inquiry.

Despite this growing momentum for justice, not one of these countries is
showing concerted leadership to make the commission of inquiry a reality.
Instead, there are various excuses given for delaying justice. But the
victims of atrocities in Burma should not have to wait any longer.

Over the course of the world's longest-running civil war – now more than
six decades old – Burma's security forces have committed deliberate
attacks on civilians, carried out summary executions, sexual violence and
torture, they have used child soldiers and committed other war crimes with
total impunity. Ethnic minority armed groups have also committed serious
abuses.

For nearly 20 years, the UN has been passing annual resolutions on Burma,
condemning human rights violations and calling on the government to stop
abuses and hold the perpetrators accountable. Yet the government has
failed to act, hence the UN special rapporteur's call for a commission of
inquiry to be set up through the UN general assembly or the human rights
council or on the secretary general's own initiative.

Such a commission would investigate reports of violations of international
humanitarian law and human rights law by all parties to the conflict in
Burma. It would be different from the usual UN reports, because a
commission would collect information to establish that crimes have been
committed. By shining the spotlight on the violations, this would give
recognition to victims, and compel the Burmese government to seriously
address the problem.

Concerned governments have a prime opportunity to move on the commission
of inquiry recommendation with the annual Burma resolution at the general
assembly. So why don't they act? Diplomats have given various reasons for
not wanting to pursue accountability now, but the main excuse is the
looming elections – "It's not the right time." It is true that the first
elections in 20 years are about to take place in Burma on 7 November. Yet
all the evidence suggests these elections will simply entrench military
rule with a civilian face – a quarter of all parliamentary seats are
reserved for military officers. More than 2,000 political prisoners remain
behind bars, and the pro-military party, the Union Solidarity and
Development party (USDP), will be the only party to field candidates for
every open seat. Yes, generals are shedding their uniforms, but no one
should be hoodwinked into thinking there is any genuine civilian
transition underway that could be threatened by an international inquiry.

Some governments seem concerned that pushing for an international process
of accountability may negatively affect the conduct of the elections by
driving Burma further into isolation. A few Asian leaders have suggested a
commission of inquiry could lead to renewed intense fighting in Burma. If
anything, embarking on an accountability process will put all parties to
the conflict on notice that there are consequences for serious abuses. As
we have seen from Liberia to the Balkans, justice could instead facilitate
a process in which highly abusive figures are marginalised and a more
reformist leadership is able to emerge in Burma.

Some states are concerned that acting on a commission of inquiry may
affect whether democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be released shortly
after the elections, as her current term for house arrest expires. While
we all want to see Suu Kyi released, her liberty is not a meaningful
indicator of progress in Burma. She has been released and detained many
times over the last 20 years. Burma's military rulers are masters at using
one woman's freedom as a bargaining chip to distract and deter the
international community from taking actions that would harm the military's
interests.

Another argument is that certain powerful countries, namely China, are
actively lobbying against a commission of inquiry for Burma. A commission
will only succeed if the major players who have come out in support of a
commission are as active in support for it as China is in efforts to
scupper it. In the past, commissions of inquiry have been created by the
security council despite China's initial reservations, most recently in
the case of Darfur. But there will need to be a commitment to a campaign
of sustained advocacy and high-level démarches to ensure enough votes to
support it.

The international community needs to heed the call of the UN special
rapporteur to act, because as he points out, "Justice and accountability
are the very foundation of the UN system." Getting a commission of inquiry
for Burma will entirely depend on how much the EU, the US and like-minded
states are prepared to engage, rather than on how much the spoilers want
to shoot it down.

____________________________________

October 28, Deustche Press Agentur
ANALYSIS: Post-election offensive feared against Myanmar rebel groups –
Peter Janssen

Bangkok - Few people have high hopes for real change after Myanmar's
November 7 general election, its first in 20 years, but for the country's
ethnic minority rebel groups, the polls threaten to bring change for the
worse.

'The election is not for the Kachin people,' said Laphai Naw Din, editor
of the Kachin News Group, which operates on the Thai-Myanmar border.
'After the election, the war will start.'

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is one of six guerilla groups in
northern and north-eastern Myanmar that have refused to submit to the
ruling military junta. In 1994, the Kachin signed a ceasefire with the
regime, allowing them semi-autonomy to govern in their territories in
Kachin state and even keep their own army.

Last year, however, the junta insisted the 'ceasefire groups' were to
cease to exist. As part of the regime's election preparations, the
ceasefire areas were to set up political parties and turn their armies
into 'border guard forces' under the military's control.

Among the rebels who refused to comply were the KIA with an estimated
force of 7,000, the United Wa State Army with 30,000 fighters, the Shan
State Army/North (SSA) with 5,000, the Karen National Liberation Army with
fewer than 8,000, the New Mon State Party with 1,000 and a breakaway
faction of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army with 1,400.

In retaliation, the regime has barred rebel-controlled portions of the
Kachin, Karen, Wa and Shan states from voting.

The election commission also rejected applications from a Kachin party and
Kachin independents to contest the polls.

More worrisome, the junta has cut off all communications with the KIA
since September 1 and in public speeches has referred to the movement as
an 'insurgency' for the first time since signing the ceasefire.

Whether the military in Myanmar, which was once named Burma, would launch
an offensive against the Kachin and other ethnic groups in the
post-election period remained open.

'I would say the ethnic minorities shouldn't be worried about being
attacked by the Burmese army for the next six months,' said Khunsai
Jaiyen, editor of the Shan Herald Agency, another news agency based along
the Thai-Myanmar border.

Khunsai argued it would take the regime three months to set up a new
government and it might take another three months for them to get used to
their civilian clothes.

The pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party, packed with former
military men, was expected to win the polls.

The Shan people can vote for the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party, a
Yangon-based party that has fielded 157 candidates.

In the 1990 election, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy won 23
seats in a statewide victory. There are hopes that the new party would do
similarly well this time round.

Khunsai said he was confident that if the military attacks the SSA, the
United Wa State Army, one of the best-armed insurgencies in South-East
Asia thanks to its lucrative methamphetamines trade, would come to its
aid.

In August last year, the military launched a 48-hour attack on Laogai, the
capital of the Kokang region in Shan state, crushing the Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army, as the Kokang rebel army was called.

The attack sent 30,000 Kokang refugees across the border into China,
irking Myanmar's big neighbour and one of its few allies.

Since the Kokang attack, the six rebel armies have formed an alliance,
promising to come to each other's aid should the junta launch another
attack.

Thai military sources suspected the most likely first target would be the
Karen National Liberation Army, which has been weakened by years of
fighting and internal dissension.

'If the Karens were defeated in a swift military offensive, the Myanmar
army could claim they had ended the oldest insurgency and that would send
a chilling sign to the other groups,' said Maung Zarni, a research fellow
at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

The Karen have been fighting for the autonomy of their state since 1949
with the military having failed for the past six decades to defeat them.

Whatever their outcome, the November 7 polls were not expected to
miraculously improve the Myanmar army's fighting skills.

'They cannot win, unless they are prepared to commit genocide,' Maung
Zarni said.