BurmaNet News, November 2, 2010

[Editor]

November 2, 2010 Issue #4074

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar cancels voting in more minority areas
AFP: 81,000 homeless need aid after Myanmar cyclone: UN
Reuters: Military junta threatens to keep power
Irrawaddy: Security tightened in Rangoon

ON THE BORDER
AP: Myanmar's ethnic minorities prepare for war

BUSINESS / TRADE
AFP: Dam symbolises ethnic fears as Myanmar polls loom
Myanmar Times: Internet out hits tourism sector

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Myanmar rulers 'not ready to return to barracks'
AFP: US students get out vote -- over Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
Telegraph (UK): Aung San Suu Kyi's possible release attracts as much
interest as the polls – Andrew Heyn
Bangkok Post: Post-election Burma may see at least some change - Thitinan
Pongsudhirak
NLM: Participate in building a new nation – Editorial





____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 2, The Associated Press
Myanmar cancels voting in more minority areas

Yangon, Myanmar – Election authorities in military-ruled Myanmar canceled
voting in Sunday's elections in more areas where restive ethnic minorities
are dominant.

The Union Election Commission canceled balloting in the Nov. 7 elections
in 12 more village tracts in six constituencies in Kayah state "as
conditions are not conducive to holding a free and fair election,"
according to an official notice seen Tuesday. Each tract comprises several
villages.

The announcement in the official gazette gave no further explanation for
the action, but exile Myanmar media have reported recent clashes between
ethnic Karenni groups and government troops in Kayah state.

The commission in September announced the cancellation of voting in about
300 village tracts in 33 townships where restive ethnic minorities are
dominant. The move is believed to have disenfranchised about 1.5 million
people in more than 3,400 villages, though official numbers are not
available.

The September announcement was the first sign from the government that the
country's first elections in two decades may not go as smoothly as
desired, despite the junta's tight control over their organization and
rules. Pro-democracy groups, as well as Western nations and human rights
organizations, have already criticized the elections as unfair and
undemocratic.

The announcement said the elections had been canceled in several townships
in Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon and Shan states, including four townships in
the Wa self-administered division.

Ethnic groups in those areas, which are mostly along the eastern and
northern borders, disagree with the ruling junta over its insistence that
they integrate their semiautonomous security forces into the government's
border guard forces.

Many of the groups have sought more autonomy since Myanmar's independence
in 1948, and the government maintains uneasy cease-fires with them.

____________________________________

November 2, Agence France Presse
81,000 homeless need aid after Myanmar cyclone: UN

Geneva – The United Nations said on Tuesday that at least 81,000 people in
western Myanmar are homeless and in need of urgent aid after cyclone Giri
hit the area last week, leaving 45 people dead.

More than 200,000 were affected and need food supplies after the tropical
cyclone slammed into four western towns including Kyaukpyu in Rakhine
state on October 25, destroying 15,000 houses and vital rice crops, a UN
assessment team found.

"What worries us the most are the 81,000 people who are without shelter
and currently need everything," said Elisabeth Byrs, a spokeswoman for the
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Myanmar's government has appealed for shelter materials, including 100,000
zinc roofing panels to ward off the heat, she added.

"The government is distributing aid with the agencies, they are working
together," Byrs told AFP.

Several islands and villages around the coast have lost most of their
water resources and are expected to face serious water shortages, UNICEF
spokeswoman Marixie Mercado said.

UN agencies started emergency food distribution, which is expected to
continue for three months.

Southwestwern Myanmar was devastated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008 which left
138,000 people dead or missing, mostly in the vulnerable river delta
region.

Myanmar's military government faced international criticism for its
response to the disaster two years ago after being accused of blocking
emergency aid and initially refusing to grant access to humanitarian
workers and supplies.

Myanmar is due to hold its first election in 20 years on November 7.
Western nations have warned the vote will not be credible unless detained
democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other opposition figures are freed.

____________________________________

November 2, Reuters
Military junta threatens to keep power

Yangon -- Myanmar's military rulers threatened on Monday to cling to power
if the public abstained from voting in Sunday's long-awaited election and
blamed foreign media for trying to derail the poll.

The military said 13 foreign news organizations had colluded with
opposition movements to discourage people from voting and create "great
troubles."

In the absence of any real opposition to two big parties backed by the
military, activists and analysts say a significant boycott by voters would
be the only means of expressing public opposition to the election.

____________________________________

November 2, Irrawaddy
Security tightened in Rangoon

While activists are stepping up the election boycott campaign, Burmese
authorities have beefed up security forces in Rangoon in preparation for
the election in five days, Rangoon sources said.

Election boycott activists have been wearing T-shirts opposing the
election and distributing pamplets telling people they have the right not
to vote.

Meanwhile security forces have been strengthened to clamp down any popular
uprising during the election, a Rangoon police officer said.

“We have tightened security in different places in the city to prevent any
uprising as it is close to election day,” he said.

Police forces have been deployed in Pabedan, Kyauk Tada, Latha, and Hle
Dan Townships in downtown areas of Rangoon.

Meanwhile troops from Light Infantry Division (LID) No 66 and 77, which
were involved in the violent crackdown on peaceful protesters during the
Saffron Revolution in 2007, have been deployed in South Dagon, North
Okkalapa and South Okkalapa Townships on Rangoon's outskirts.

The regime has deployed more police to maintain security in downtown areas
as part of a move to depend on police rather than military units for
maintaining internal security after the election,   according to military
sources.

The Myanmar (Burmese) Police Force have been reinforced and since August
have been trained in protest control and arson prevention during popular
uprisings, the sources said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 2, The Associated Press
Myanmar's ethnic minorities prepare for war – Denis D. Gray

Chiang Mai, Thailand -- As military-ruled Myanmar prepares for its first
election in two decades, some of its powerful ethnic minority groups are
preparing for war.

Several are boycotting Sunday's vote, which they see as a step toward
shattering their long-held dream of semiautonomy under a federal system.
The government in turn has canceled voting in 3,400 villages in ethnic
areas, disenfranchising 1.5 million people.

As tensions rise, both sides have been amassing forces, and some minor
clashes have broken out. Should full-scale fighting erupt, a humanitarian
crisis could ensue. Relief groups anticipate a wave of refugees, swelling
the 600,000 already in neighboring Thailand and Bangladesh.

"We had high hopes to solve the problems by political means but we could
not," Lahpai Nawdin, head of the media arm of the Kachin ethnic group,
said at a meeting of activists and others in this northern Thailand city
last weekend. "That's why we Kachin people are preparing for an inevitable
civil war. We have to defend ourselves."

The military has run Myanmar since 1962, and the election is widely seen
as a ploy to perpetuate its control under the guise of civilian rule.

Though the signs are ominous, experts also agree that neither side wants
war. They add that China, the country's most influential and closest ally,
will try hard to prevent one.

Myanmar, earlier known as Burma, is home to about two dozen minority
groups, many of whom live in isolated and mountainous enclaves along the
border with Thailand, China, India and Bangladesh. They make up 40 percent
of the country's 56 million people.

After years of off-and-on fighting that started in 1948, when Myanmar
gained independence from Great Britain, the government reached cease-fire
agreements with 17 groups beginning in 1989. A half dozen others continue
to fight, including the Karen National Union and Shan State Army-South.

Under the agreements, the cease-fire groups were given considerable
political autonomy and allowed to maintain their armies.

But in the run-up to the election, the ruling junta rammed through a "one
nation, one army" constitution and ordered the ethnic groups to integrate
their forces into a new Border Guard Force.

Several groups ignored deadlines to do so, including the two most
powerful: the United Wa State Army, which has the largest force with an
estimated 30,000 artillery-backed fighters, and the Kachin Independence
Army.

The Wa and Kachin have both stepped up military training, and some ethnic
groups are forging military links.

Associated Press reporters met young recruits undergoing basic training in
Kachin state in April, ready to join an 8,000-strong force fabled for its
expertise in guerrilla warfare.

Meanwhile, the government has purchased 50 Russian-made M-24 helicopter
gunships, which are often used in counterinsurgency operations, and
withdrawn some civilian employees from potential war zones.

Last month, government soldiers encircled a Kachin army checkpoint, while
the Kachin surrounded two government liaison offices in one of a growing
number of potentially dangerous incidents.

Jan Zalewski of London-based IHS Global Insight, a consulting firm, said
the groups face a dilemma: give up their weapons and lose their bargaining
power, try to maintain the status quo or become more aggressive, thus
provoking military action.

"In many ways, there are indications that the latter scenario will
materialize," he said.

In August 2009, the army attacked one of the cease-fire groups, the
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Party, sparking the flight of more
than 30,000 ethnic Kokang into China and drawing the ire of Beijing.

China has lucrative economic links with both the military junta and the
ethnic groups, whose regions are rich in timber, jade and other natural
resources. It also wants to forge a pathway - including a natural gas
pipeline now under construction - through ethnic areas to the Indian Ocean
to speed the flow of goods to its landlocked southwestern provinces and,
some analysts say, to gain access for its navy ships to a port it is
helping to build.

"There will be friction, but China has a big interest in keeping the
situation near its borders with Burma stable, which means Beijing will
pressure and bribe both the army and ethnics to maintain the status quo,"
said Donald Seekins, a Myanmar scholar in Hawaii.

At the meeting here last weekend, representatives from the minority groups
described the election as a means to eliminate all ethnic political power.

Some called for what has so far eluded the disparate groups. "We now have
no real option but to unite, politically and militarily. Now is the time
to be united as one," said Nawdin, who heads the Kachin News Group.

By some estimates, a united insurgency could field 65,000 fighers and
control a quarter of the country's territory.

"Critical times lie ahead," said Martin Smith, a British scholar who has
followed Myanmar's insurgencies for decades. "Will the next government
determine new and representative ways of establishing peace by reform and
inclusion? Or will it seek military-first solutions?"

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 1, Agence France Presse
Dam symbolises ethnic fears as Myanmar polls loom

Tang Hpre, Myanmar – Time is running out for the ethnic villagers of Tang
Hpre, who have been told to leave their homes near the birthplace of
Myanmar's mighty Irrawaddy to make way for a huge new reservoir.

The dam being built in northernmost Kachin state is expected to inundate
dozens of villages, displacing at least 10,000 people and irreversibly
damaging one of the world's most biodiverse areas.

"The people are terrified," said a 70-year-old village preacher. "The
State Peace and Development Council (the military junta) came and said we
have to move. We can't say no."

Electricity from the hydropower project is destined for neighbouring
China, hungry for Myanmar's rich natural resources, while the revenues are
expected to line the pockets of the junta and their cronies.

For the people of Kachin, the Myitsone dam symbolises the struggles they
have faced for decades as a marginalised ethnic group in the repressed
nation, which has been ruled by the generals since 1962.

"The dam issue is an identity issue," said a Kachin civil society worker,
who asked not to be named for fear of political repercussions. "The people
feel they have been exploited over and over again."

Although Myanmar is preparing for its first election in 20 years on
Sunday, the controversial November 7 poll will not offer the Kachin people
an opportunity to air their political grievances.

The junta has scrapped the ballot in swathes of ethnic areas deemed unable
to hold a "free and fair" vote, including villages in Kachin, Kayah,
Karen, Mon and Shan states -- a move that bars hundreds of thousands of
potential voters.

The regime has refused registration to three Kachin parties and related
independent candidates, denying the ethnic group any genuine
representation. The only Kachin party contesting the poll is backed by the
junta.

"People don't really believe in this process," said the civil society
worker. "Throughout history, trust has been broken again and again."

After Myanmar gained independence in 1948, civil war broke out between the
regime and ethnic rebels seeking more autonomy and rights, including an
uprising in Kachin that gathered momentum from the early 1960s.

Decades of violence, entailing grave human rights abuses and the
displacement of tens of thousands of people, ended with a fragile
ceasefire between the government and the Kachin Independence Organisation
(KIO) in 1994.

The KIO has since been allowed to control sizeable chunks of the border
state, but Kachins say the government has continually failed to meet their
demands for greater self-rule and ethnic minority rights.

"The KIO can't surrender arms until there is a political solution," said
James Lumdau, the group's deputy chief of foreign affairs, defending their
refusal to disarm their militia, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

Ahead of the elections, the government has pressured the KIA and former
rebel armies in other ethnic states to give up their weapons or come under
state control -- a move most have resisted, sparking fears of renewed
conflict.

"Within six months, there are most likely to be serious military
operations against ethnic groups. This will be the fight of their lives, a
fight for survival," said Myanmar expert Maung Zarni at the London School
of Economics.

While the regime is likely to face pressure from key backer China to avoid
sparking an exodus of refugees across the border, tensions are growing.

The authorities recently blamed a deadly landmine blast in Kachin on KIA
"insurgents" -- the first time it has labelled them as such since the
truce, suggesting a toughening position against unsubmissive ethnic
groups.

One of the largest and most formidable of these, the United State Wa Army,
is not allowing elections in the land under its control, while in other
areas a number of "ethnic" party candidates stand accused of being
pro-junta.

But where genuinely representative parties have been approved, the mood is
more upbeat.

The Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), for example, is confident
of support from the vast majority of eastern Shan state's voters to secure
a voice in the new parliament, where 25 percent of seats are reserved for
the army.

"In the future, civilians will participate in the administration with 75
percent -- and isn't getting 75 percent better than nothing?" SNDP leader
Sai Aik Paung said in an AFP interview in August.

The mood is less optimistic in the parts of Shan and other unstable ethnic
regions where peace pacts are yet to be reached.

A six-decade-old conflict continues in eastern border areas, where the
junta has waged a brutal counter-insurgency campaign involving the rape,
torture and murder of villagers whose homes are routinely destroyed,
rights groups say.

Educational and employment opportunities are low despite the investment
projects of the Chinese, who often bring their own workers across the
border as they tap natural treasures such as gems and timber.

"People have stopped trying, they have given up," said a 26-year-old hotel
worker in Myitkina, Kachin's main town.

With ethnic minorities comprising more than a third of Myanmar's estimated
50 million people, experts say a lasting political solution in these
states is crucial for stability.

"There has to be a new system that respects their political rights," said
Myanmar analyst Tom Kramer of the Transnational Institute, a
Netherlands-based thinktank. "Without that, the prospects for peace and
democracy are grim."

____________________________________

November 2, Myanmar Times
Internet out hits tourism sector

INTERNET blockages and slowdowns that started in Myanmar on October 25
caused “big problems” for tourism businesses in Yangon last week, with
some predicting the outage would hurt the industry’s image.

“I don’t know the reason for the internet blockages but I’m worried about
the lack of internet access,” said a spokesperson from a leading tour
company in Yangon. “It’s very important for my business to be able to
communicate with potential visitors from other countries.”

A spokesperson from an air ticket agency in Yangon said the internet
problems had resulted in delays in providing essential services to
customers.

“It’s a big problem because we cannot use the online booking system. To
book tickets, now we have to communicate by phone with the head offices of
each airline,” he said.

“The tourist season has started and of course we all are very busy. [On
October 27] we got internet access around 6pm but it only lasted for one
hour and we couldn’t do anything. I hope to get a connection very soon
because it’s ruining business,” he said.

U Hla Aye, the managing director of Shan Yoma Travel in Yangon, said he
was “frustrated” by the internet blockage.

“I can’t reply quickly to my customers in other countries, and I’m worried
that this will have a negative impact on my company’s image,” he said.

“Tourism is a service industry. We need to provide prompt service when
customers from other countries contact us by email. We rely on internet
access to communicate with our overseas customers.”

One tourism industry expert said the internet problems would damage the
image of Myanmar’s entire tourism industry.

“The people working in the tourism sector are suffering as a result of the
internet blockage. The worst thing is, it’s happening at the start of peak
season, which will make Myanmar’s tourism industry look very bad,” the
expert said.

An official from Myanmar Post and Telecommunication alleged that internet
services had been affected by distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks
on local servers, which had overloaded the network and effectively nixed
the net.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 2, Agence France Presse
Myanmar rulers 'not ready to return to barracks'

Bangkok – It's one of the world's oldest dictatorships, run by an
enigmatic postman-turned-soldier who, true to form, is keeping the world
guessing about whether his iron-fisted rule is drawing to an end.

As Myanmar gears up for its first election in 20 years -- a vote the
generals say will mark the dawn of democracy after almost five decades of
autocracy -- junta chief Than Shwe's intentions remain shrouded in
mystery.

Speculation is rife that the ailing 77-year-old may step down from the
position of commander-in-chief of Myanmar's "Tatmadaw" armed forces and
hand over power to a younger generation of trusted lieutenants.

Few, however, expect the military -- or its "senior general" -- to
relinquish the real power any time soon.

"I don't think he would be happy to retire," says Aung Zaw, founder and
editor of the Irrawaddy, a Thailand-based magazine run by Burmese exiles
that is a vocal critic of the regime.

"He will stay in power as much as he can because he's worried about his
own future. He has created a lot of enemies over the past five or 10
years."

Than Shwe is not running as a candidate in the election, but if the
junta-backed parties win, as expected, he could still become president --
a post created by the 2008 constitution chosen by the newly elected
parliament.

In this scenario, he would want to hand over power "to someone he trusts,
who is a much weaker person," says Aung Zaw.

Than Shwe knows the risks only too well, having put his predecessor, the
late dictator Ne Win, under house arrest in 2002 after his family members
were convicted of plotting to overthrow his regime.

In 2004 the junta supremo -- a Manchester United fan -- ousted his own
prime minister and military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt, who was later
put in prison, then under house arrest.

Sunday's election has been widely condemned by Western powers and exiled
democracy activists as a charade to legitimise army rule, and the
generals' motives for holding it in the first place are the subject of
much debate.

But observers agree on one thing -- it is not because the military is up
against the wall.

Myanmar's armed forces are believed to have doubled in size over the past
two decades with an estimated 350,000 to 400,000 personnel.

"The Tatmadaw is not going to simply give up government and return to the
barracks," says Professor Andrew Selth, an expert on Myanmar's military
with Australia's Griffin Uni.

"The military government could be in power, in one guise or another, for
many years to come," he adds.

In contrast to other pariah states, in Myanmar there are no towering
statues of Than Shwe or elaborate myths spread to prop up his regime.

Unlike North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, Myanmar's senior general does not
have the image of a cognac-guzzling eccentric playboy. Nor is he reputed
to have hit 11 holes-in-one on his first round of golf.

But what he lacks in charisma and personality cult, he has made up for
with brute force -- crushing uprisings, silencing dissent and locking up
political prisoners, among them opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, his
arch enemy.

Mark Canning, the former British ambassador to Myanmar who has met the
junta chief several times, describes him as "small, plump, slow moving and
physically unimposing.

"He projects no obvious sense of menace or intimidation. He's far from the
image of a fire-breathing demagogue," Canning says.

"He gives every impression of being what he in fact is -- someone who has
manoeuvred himself from lowly beginnings to the top of the military pile,
with guile, intrigue and, where necessary, force."

And some believe the enigmatic dictator may have at least one more card up
his sleeve.

If he can find a successor who will be completely loyal he may take some
kind of honorary position, while maintaining control from behind the
scenes, says Myanmar academic Win Min.

But repeated references in state media recently to the junta boss as the
"commander-in-chief" have been seen by some as a sign that he plans to
remain at the helm of the military, possibly ceding some day-to-day
duties.

So after forcing potential rivals such as junta number three Thura Shwe
Mann and Prime Minister Thein Sein to retire from their army posts to
stand in the election, Than Shwe himself could stay right where he is.

"The commander-in-chief is the most powerful person, so it's the safest
position for him," says Win Min.

____________________________________

November 2, Agence France Presse
US students get out vote -- over Myanmar

Washington – As the United States heads to the polls Tuesday, university
students across the country are also getting out the vote over a very
different election -- the one in Myanmar.

At least 23 US campuses are holding mock elections to throw a spotlight on
Sunday's vote in Myanmar, also known as Burma. The polls are widely viewed
overseas as a sham due to marginalization of the opposition and ethnic
minorities.

Activists see the election as a setback for the cause of democracy in the
military-ruled country but hope the mock polls will stir up activism and
put Myanmar higher on the agenda for young Americans.

At Georgetown University, students Monday handed out ballots with a choice
between the two main US parties. Activists then contrasted the free
results with the expected ringing endorsement of the junta in Myanmar's
election.

"There are of course limits to what student activism here can do inside
Burma," admitted mock election leader Morgan McDaniel, 19, as she handed
out ballots -- and, to entice voters, dumplings -- at the university in
Washington.

"But by doing this we can raise awareness among people who don't know
what's going on and ultimately push support for human rights
organizations," she said.

"It's also really important to broadcast into Burma that we support them
in their quest for a democratic government," she said.

McDaniel came up with the idea after visiting the border of Thailand and
Myanmar. She is active in Stand, a global movement of students against
genocide that was launched at Georgetown in 2004 to rally for action over
Darfur.

At American University, students are handing out ballots that offer the
sole choice of supporting the junta. After casting their vote, students
are asked to throw their ballots into the garbage.

Student leader Kirk Acevedo, 21, who also spent time on the
Thailand-Myanmar border, said he was alarmed that many classmates could
not find Myanmar on the map.

He hoped to help shape students' views on issues important for activists
-- such as setting up a UN-backed Commission of Inquiry into alleged
crimes against humanity by the junta.

"We hope that this is at the minimum a forum for discussion and that it
will plant the seeds of activism, so when something happens, or people
hear about the Commission of Inquiry, the whole community is aware," he
said.

Human rights groups say that Myanmar has systematically razed villages
belonging to ethnic minorities, deployed child soldiers and used rape as a
weapon of war.

The elections are the first in Myanmar since 1990, when democracy icon
Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won by a landslide. The
junta never allowed the opposition to take over and Aung San Suu Kyi
remains under house arrest.

President Barack Obama's administration has strongly criticized the
election but has stood by its policy initiated last year of engaging the
regime in dialogue.

Exile groups fear that the junta is trying to gain international
legitimacy and isolate Aung San Suu Kyi through the elections.

Students have played a prominent role inside Myanmar, including in 1988
when they led a mass uprising that was crushed after generals consolidated
power in a coup. An estimated 3,000 people were killed.

Myra Dahgaypaw, the campaign coordinator for the US Campaign for Burma, is
visiting many of the campuses to describe her own experience -- more than
25 years internally displaced or in a refugee camp in Thailand.

"Students come in big groups and are very energized. They want to see
outcomes as effective as possible," she said. "We want to get more
students on our side."

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 2, Telegraph (UK)
Aung San Suu Kyi's possible release attracts as much interest as the polls
– Andrew Heyn

As elections near, people ask me whether she is relevant to Burmese
politics after so long. The answer is yes.

The focus is on Burma not just because of the elections scheduled for
Sunday, but also because of the possibility of Aung San Suu Kyi being
released six days later.

I have been doing a large number of media briefings in recent days and the
questions have been split pretty evenly between the elections and the
possible release on 13 November.

Two of the questions I am most frequently asked are: what I think she will
do if she is released and, secondly, whether she can have any relevance in
Burma after so long under house arrest?

The first is difficult to answer. It depends to a major extent on whether
the regime places restrictions on her.

Her lawyer told me recently that when she was released in 1995 she was not
allowed to travel outside Rangoon. On release from a further period of
house arrest in 2002, she was allowed to travel outside Rangoon, but only
once prior authorisation had been sought from the regime.

Her colleagues at the National League for Democracy tell me that this
time, as before, Aung San Suu Kyi wants to travel the country and
reconnect with the Burmese public. I imagine she will also be inundated
with requests for meetings with foreign diplomats (including this one) and
visiting politicians.

As for her relevance, all the evidence points to a regime that still fears
that she is very relevant.

They have kept Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 of the past 21
years. Both the constitution and the election laws included specific
provisions which seemed designed to prevent her from running for election
or holding high office.

And she remains hugely important to the Burmese people. For them she
represents hope of a better future and a figure embodying the unity that
is so absent from present day Burma. She already had a special status as
the daughter of the father of the country's independence movement.

But her bravery and dedication to the democratic cause in 1988 and beyond
gave her a significant following in her own right. People have enormous
admiration for the way she has remained dignified, committed and
principled in the face of everything the regime has thrown at her since
the 1990 elections in which her party won by a landslide.

Last Friday, I drove down University Avenue where Aung San Suu Kyi lives.
Part of the road is open to traffic, but you soon meet a crude wood and
barbed wire barrier, the first of two which prevent anyone getting to her
house. A couple of bored looking guards cast wary eyes at my car with its
diplomatic number plates as we approached. They needn't have worried. I
had a meeting elsewhere. The only time I have been allowed to meet her was
last October in a session rigidly structured by the regime.

You can't see the house from that roadblock, but you can see it very
clearly from the opposite bank of Rangoon's Inle lake at a distance of
some 500 metres. But that's about as close as most people can get to a
woman who for years has embodied the Burmese people's defiance against the
regime that controls the country.

Since she was last placed under house arrest in 2002, the authorities have
sought to control her completely, denying her the chance to communicate in
any way with the people who gave her party an overwhelming mandate in 1990
and the younger generation that has emerged since.

How will the regime try to control her now? Delay her release? Attach a
string of conditions, in defiance of all the calls by the international
community for her freedom to be unconditional?

Release her only to re-arrest her shortly afterwards "for her own safety",
because of the crowds of people who will undoubtedly flock to see her?

All are possible. But if you want to know what Aung San Suu Kyi means to
people, I don't think you need look much further than the title of one of
her books, Freedom from Fear. She represents an alternative vision of how
life in Burma could be. In which freedom from fear would be a central
element and a radical change from the current position.

For most people here that would be a pretty good start.

Andrew Heyn is the British Ambassador to Burma

____________________________________

November 2, Bangkok Post
Post-election Burma may see at least some change – Thitinan Pongsudhirak

After two decades of relatively static confrontation between its ruling
generals and the outside world, potential movements are afoot as Burma
heads to the polls on Sunday. By all accounts, the electoral process and
outcome will be an organised fraud. Even the State Peace and Development
Council, the top brass who have lorded it over Burma with an iron fist for
two decades, do not pretend that the elections will be free and fair. Yet
the ensuing charade and shenanigans still matter as they could foment
unintended consequences and allow Burma to break out of its
military-dominated stranglehold.

Whether all will be the same, better or worse under a civilian guise, the
impact and implications for the Burmese inside the country and those in
the diaspora, as well as the international community and regional
neighbours, will be palpable and plausibly far-reaching.

To be sure, the imminent election will seal the SPDC's robbery of Burma's
last and legitimate poll from 20 years ago. That was when the National
League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi won by a landslide but was
denied power and government by the generals. This time, constitutional
rules have been rigged and pro-military candidates have been stacked to
ensure a pro-SPDC proxy government. A hefty candidate registration cost by
local standards ensured that only the SPDC-backed Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP) and pro-junta National Unity Party (NUP) can
field candidates nationwide. Other parties, led by the NLD offshoot New
Democratic Force, are scattered along national and regional lines and only
able to send a fraction of candidates compared to USDP and NUP. And the
military will be given 25% of assembly seats to begin with.

That these parties decided to contest the election in the face of the
NLD's disbandment and Ms Suu Kyi's boycott suggests that post-election
movements are not implausible. The contesting parties from the various
opposition camps inside Burma have demonstrated their willingness to put
up and fight for a better day even when the odds are stacked against them.
While the USDP and NUP will dominate, the resulting outcomes may create
newly vested interests and dynamics and power struggles, underpinned by
electoral legitimacy, that could reshape Burma's political terrain. A
country that has endured two decades of autocratic darkness should not be
expected to wake up to democratic sunshine overnight. Military withdrawals
and democratic transitions the world over have shown that the road ahead
is always topsy-turvy and reversible, characterised by dashed hopes and
false promises but steered by unrelenting hopes and aspirations. Any
change must start from somewhere. For Burma's brutality and tragedy under
military rule, this is an opportunity not to miss an opportunity.

For the international community, largely comprising the major capitals of
Europe and North America, the upcoming Burmese vote is a quandary. As the
Burmese dissident groups in those capitals have rejected the electoral
process, Western governments will be hard-pressed to tread a fine line.
Sanctions have been spectacularly futile, and forceful regime change was
never on the cards. The continuation of wait-and-see through deft
diplomacy in quiet places, such as building the opposition's networks and
capacity inside the country, is advisable. That the SPDC generals have
bothered to go through this civilianisation sham when it was not necessary
for prolonging military rule suggests that potential space is there for
the West to help find a way forward.

The response from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of which
Burma became a member in 1997, is a set piece. Asean went along with
Burma's road map, which culminates with the polls. A cautious Asean
endorsement can be expected. Moreover, the regional environment has now
reverted back to the early 1990s when Asean-China relations were
frictional. Tensions over overlapping claims in the South China Sea have
resurfaced as China swings its weight in the lead up to its own leadership
transition. The Asean-China enmity was the reason Asean accepted Burma
then and it will facilitate Asean's approval of Burma's election now. In
addition, none of the Asean member states except Indonesia and the
Philippines to a lesser extent is in a position to pontificate on
democratic purity. A similar endorsement can be expected from India and
China, the regional giants. As Southeast Asia's own "great game", Burma is
being courted by suitors from all immediate directions for its abundant
natural endowments and geo-strategic payoffs.

For Thailand, the impact from post-election Burma will be at least
fourfold. First, the spectre of renewed armed conflicts between
post-election Tatmadaw and the ethnic armies along the Thai-Burmese border
should worry Thai security planners. Emboldened by electoral legitimacy,
the generals calling the shots from behind the scenes may go after the
minority ethnic groups that did not lay down arms and become Border Guard
Forces once and for all. Such conflicts would exacerbate the humanitarian
crisis seen in recent years. Indeed, the balkanisation of Burma is a
nightmare for Thailand's security calculus.

Second, the illicit trade and human- and drug-smuggling operations may
increase along the Thai-Burmese border in parallel with war-financing by
ethnic armies. Third, Thailand's energy dependence on Burma is a growing
source of insecurity. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's recent visit to
Naypyidaw and the lucrative port-development deal he brought home
underscored the necessarily closer commercial relationship Thailand must
pursue. To alleviate its energy insecurity, Bangkok needs to come up with
a serious and enforceable long-term, consensus-based energy master plan
that can withstand changes of government.

Fourth, Burma's nuclear interest should never be disregarded. The
post-election Tatmadaw's possession of nuclear weapons, however crude and
whatever its development duration, could be a game-changer for Thailand.

The most important impact and outcome of the Burmese polls will be
confined to the Burmese people. The Burmese dissident groups near and far
should consider a more nuanced approach towards the elections when
opposition groups inside have bitten the bullet and run for what they can
get as hope for a way ahead. Dissident groups should condemn the electoral
process as a farce as much as they should look for ways of fostering
changes and finding space inside the country. Eventually, dissident groups
outside the country will have to be re-integrated to make a viable Burma
going forward. Re-integration should dissuade intransigence.

The Burma story has too long been dominated by headlines about the main
protagonists. Even on cursory impressions, any first-time visitor to this
rich country and fabled kingdom will notice people in the streets toiling
for a better day at great costs against the odds.

The writer is director of the Institute of Security and International
Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

____________________________________

November 2, New Light of Myanmar
Participate in building a new nation – Editorial

Wishing to lead a peaceful life in a peaceful, modern and developed
democratic nation, the people will elect representatives in the multiparty
democracy general election to be held in line with the constitution to
have their wishes fulfilled.

The entire people are preparing to take part in the election, and
independent candidates from all strata of life and representatives from
political parties are canvassing for votes, presenting their political
experience, attitudes and what they will do for national development if
elected.

A golden opportunity is in the hands of the people to choose the candidate
they are in support. To get their wishes, the people need just to cast
votes with prudence to elect reliable and responsible candidates.

Now, the people have a better future ahead of them as the first step to
democratization is being taken, which is at the turning point in the
history of the nation. Successful completion of the election will be
followed by step-by-step implementation of tasks for transition to
democratic administration. Political parties, candidates and the people
are looking forward to the free and fair election.

However, certain foreign radio stations and some organizations that oppose
the processes for democratization are tricking the people into ignoring
the election. It is required of the people to make sure that they are not
influenced by political tricks that are aimed at harming national
interest.

Voting in an election is the right bestowed upon every citizen. Now, the
goal of democracy is within the touching distance. Therefore, every
citizen has to participate in the building of a new nation by making
correct choices in the forthcoming election.