BurmaNet News, November 5, 2010

[Editor]

November 5, 2010 Issue #4077


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar opposition accuse pro-junta party of election fraud
AP: Myanmar military set to win elections on Sunday
Irrawaddy: Thein Sein campaigns among cyclone victims
Irrawaddy: Military family members ordered to re-do vote
DVB: Activists mark second vote behind bars

ON THE BORDER
Mizzima: Ethnic alliance to set up ‘federal army’
DPA: Myanmar vote rigged, shouldn't be recognized, exiles say

BUSINESS / TRADE
CNN: As vote looms, Myanmar's economic woes remain

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima: British envoy: junta elections defy all EU fairness criteria
AP: Suu Kyi's son seeks Myanmar visa to visit mother
VOA: Burma's media focus on military leaders, parties ahead of election

OPINION / OTHER
Nation (Thailand): Minority legislatures will mean little to the Burmese
military

PRESS RELEASE
European Burma Network: Election statement
Shwe Gas Movement: 2010 elections will leave people of Burma in the dark





____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 5, Agence France Presse
Myanmar opposition accuse pro-junta party of election fraud

Yangon – Myanmar's two main opposition parties Friday accused the
political group representing the military regime of "cheating" and
"threatening" voters ahead of the first election in two decades.

The Democratic Party (Myanmar) and National Democratic Force (NDF) have
accused the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) of illegally
collecting advance votes for Sunday's poll.

Thu Wai, chairman of the Democratic Party (Myanmar), said his party had
written to the Union Election Commission in Naypyidaw outlining the
accusations.

"We have learnt that the USDP together with ward authorities are trying to
get advance votes by cheating, bribing or threatening people," the letter
said.

The NDF has made similar accusations but has yet to file an official
complaint, according to party leader Khin Maung Swe.

He said that in an area of the southeastern city of Dawei, its candidates
reported that "the authorities are trying to get 20,000 advanced votes"
out of 40,000 eligible voters.

Thu Wai said he was "deeply concerned" about the claims and said the party
had received stories of voter intimidation and coercion from all over the
country.

USDP candidates had forced villagers to vote early -- and for the
junta-backed party -- by threatening them or telling them their roads
would be repaired if they agreed to sign, he said.

Myanmar's first election since 1990 has been criticised by the West as a
sham aimed at hiding military rule behind a civilian facade.

A quarter of seats in the new legislature have already been reserved for
the army, while opposition parties have suffered crippling obstacles.

Democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained for much of the
past twenty years, remains locked up and sidelined from the poll while her
now-disbanded National League for Democracy is boycotting the process.

The Nobel Peace Prize winner -- whose current term of house arrest is due
to expire just days after the vote -- swept her party to power in 1990 but
the results were never recognised by the ruling generals.

Thailand-based Myanmar analyst Aung Naing Oo said the USDP was expected to
win despite the fact that the party is "hated".

"In a normal situation the USDP would be going to lose so they are going
to make sure that they win. So they will resort to various dirty tricks,"
he said.

The USDP, which has 1,112 candidates contesting almost all of the
constituencies, was formed by Prime Minister Thein Sein and other
ministers who retired from their military posts in April.

The party inherited considerable financial resources and millions of
members from the Union Solidarity and Development Association, a powerful
pro-junta organisation that was merged into the USDP.

The National Unity Party (NUP), the successor to late dictator Ne Win's
Burma Socialist Program Party, has also complained about the USDP forcibly
collecting absentee votes, exile media group Mizzima News reported.

The NUP is a key contender in Sunday's poll as the second largest party,
and could hold the balance of power in parliament, particularly if it
benefits from a protest vote against the USDP.

Aung Naing Oo said the NUP could provide a possible counterbalance to the
current regime's power and was actively "capitalising on the hatred of the
USDP".

"The rivalry I think is quite a genuine rivalry, contrary to the belief
that the NUP and the USDP cooperate," he said.
____________________________________

November 5, Associated Press
Myanmar military set to win elections on Sunday

Yangon, Myanmar – Twenty years after the last elections here, when a
landslide opposition victory was annulled by the military-run government,
Myanmar is holding a nationwide vote Sunday that its secretive generals
tout as "discipline-flourishing democracy."

There is definitely plenty of discipline.

Political gatherings are only allowed with a week's notice and an official
review of the campaign speech. Hundreds of potential opposition candidates
including pro-democracy hero Aung San Suu Kyi are under house arrest or in
prison. Many of the rules were clearly written to benefit the proxy party
for the ruling junta.

But in a country battered by more than 50 years of brutal military rule
and sometimes-bizarre economic mismanagement, some candidates hope that
maybe just maybe the poll could mark the start of a new era in Myanmar,
which is also known as Burma.

"We don't believe this is a free and fair election," said Phone Win, an
aid group founder running as an independent candidate in Yangon, the
country's largest city.

Still, he added, "This could be something worthwhile, it could really
change Myanmar." Then he smiled: "Or maybe not."

There is little disagreement about who will win. Diplomats, political
observers outside Myanmar and many voters predict the junta-backed Union
Solidarity and Development Party will come out on top.

Numbers alone appear to make major change impossible.

The USDP is fielding 1,112 candidates for the 1,159 seats in the two-house
national parliament and 14 regional parliaments. Its closest rival, the
National Unity Party with 995 candidates, is backed by supporters of
Myanmar's previous military ruler.

The largest opposition party, the National Democratic Force, is contesting
just 164 spots.

While most candidates struggle to raise the $500 needed to register, the
junta's proxy party has financial resources and a ready-made political
machine culled from the vast civil service. It has the tacit support of
the state media, which gives it extensive coverage.

Most importantly, it has the backing of generals who have repeatedly
proven willing to do whatever is needed, from mass arrests to torture, to
quiet political threats. Already, opposition parties have complained of
strong-arm tactics to force people, particularly in rural areas, to vote
for the USDP.

Just in case all that isn't enough, the constitution sets aside 25 percent
of parliamentary seats for military appointees.

So the elections' critics see it as nothing but a way to put
military-approved candidates, many of them former top soldiers, into
civilian clothes.

"This isn't just simply a flawed process. This is a categorically
antidemocratic process," said Muang Zarni, an exiled Myanmar dissident and
researcher at the London School of Economics.

Suu Kyi, who led her party to the annulled victory in 1990 and remains
under house arrest, agrees. She dismissed the election as rigged and urged
her party, the National League for Democracy, to boycott the vote, leading
to its dissolution.

But some also see the election as a democratic opportunity albeit a deeply
flawed one that cannot be passed up.

"The door is ajar and we need to try our best to slip through," said Nay
Ye Ba Swe, the 58-year-old daughter of a former prime minister and a
candidate with the opposition Democratic Party. "At first the political
space will be very small but ... time will change the landscape in favor
of democratic forces."

A thin, demure woman who served five years in prison for political
activity, she believes there is no choice but to participate.

"If you don't vote, you are telling the regime and their cronies to rule
forever," she said.

Phone Win agrees. "The elections are just the first step. Afterwards, we
will work inside parliament, outside parliament," he said. "Even if we get
only one seat in parliament, we can start to do something."

His campaign might appear ridiculous anywhere but Myanmar. Well-spoken and
telegenic, he has yet to actually make a public speech because of the
restrictions. Instead, he distributes flyers during stops in tea shops,
with loudspeakers on rented trucks blaring earsplitting music to attract
attention.

"I talk and talk and talk and talk," he said.

But few passers-by paid him much attention on a recent evening as he tried
to rally voters in a crowded Yangon market. Some were clearly frightened
away by the secret policemen at the edge of the tea shop, photographing
anyone standing with him.

The military has ruled since 1962, with a succession of generals
suppressing dissent and driving the country into international isolation.
Today, it has a per capita income of $1,200, and a third of the population
lives in poverty. Uprisings were forcefully put down in 1988 and 2007. The
jails hold some 2,200 political prisoners.

The country has often been ruled by dictatorial whimsy. The previous
military leader, obsessed with the number 9 and reportedly advised by his
astrologers, banned bank notes not divisible by that number.

In 2005, the current leadership ordered the capital shifted overnight from
Yangon to the once-tiny village of Naypyitaw, 250 miles (400 kilometers)
to the north. Little but rumors are known about Than Shwe, the senior
general who heads the junta.

The generals are loath to allow any political opening that might someday
jeopardize their family fortunes or, even worse, put them on trial.

Given that, many worry that even if the elections do bring some change, it
is likely to be reversed if things move too quickly for the junta.

"The door may open a bit, but if you put your foot in too far they may
just chop it off," said a middle-class businessman, who spoke on condition
of anonymity, fearing government reprisal. "Then if you try to walk in,
they'll probably just shoot you."

____________________________________

November 5, Irrawaddy
Thein Sein campaigns among cyclone victims

Burma's incumbent Prime Minister Thein Sein has visited areas of  Arakan
State ravaged by Cyclone Giri, but reportedly used the trip to campaign
for his party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

One local resident said the premier urged people at a public meeting on
Nov. 3 to vote for the USDP.

"He said at the meeting with local people and local authorities at
Yammawaddy Hall in Kyaukpyu that people should behave like good citizens
and go to the polling station on election day, telling them they should
clearly tick right in the middle of box next to his party's Lion symbol,”
the resident, who attended the meeting, told The Irrawaddy.

Thein Sein is the USDP's chairman and is the first high ranking government
official to visit areas struck by the cyclone.

In his speech to the Kyaukpyu meeting, Thein Sein made no mention of how
the government intended to help people affected by the cyclone, the
resident said. The premier had just advised people to follow the example
of Bangladeshis and build homes strong enough to withstand severe storms.

"People were very angry at his remarks,” said the resident. “This is a
plain insult to the suffering of the people."

Reporting on Thein Sein's visit, the state media gave a different account
of the premier's trip, saying he had been warmly welcomed by cyclone
victims.

Thein Sein visited cyclone affected areas in Kyaukphu, Pauktaw and Sittwe,
where local sources said he appeared more interested in campaigning than
in telling the people how the government intended to help them.

A resident of Myebon said Thein Sein had visited the town, attending a
meeting at the Township Peace and Development Council office and visiting
a high school, but avoided cyclone-damaged areas.

One influential resident of Myebon said Thein Sein had instructed the
authorities to give cyclone victims relief aid donated by nongovermental
organizations and individuals, but had said nothing about reconstruction
plans.

But some NGO members said relief supplies were being retained by the
authorities and none had yet been delivered to cyclone victims. One source
said relief aid was being sold.

Thein Sein also visited Sittwe but again neglected to tell local people
how the government intended to help them. He held election meetings in
Sittwe with members of the Election Commission and the USDP, one
Sittwe resident said.

Local people are reportedly being promised aid if they vote for the USDP.
A Pauktaw resident said: "Heads of wards and village told the community to
support and vote for the USDP if we want relief aid and they were even
selling the relief aid provided by the township authority.”

Troops from an artillery battalion and Brigade 9 of the Division Command
have been deployed at almost all cyclone affected areas in Myebon
Township, according to local residents.

"It is not easy for anyone who wants to go and help the cyclone victims
because they are questioned by the military personnel,” said one Myebon
resident.  “All donations must go through them. It is more like a war zone
than a disaster area.”

The regime has reportedly not replied to US and British government offers
of help.

"The extent of the destruction is high and the government can't cope
alone.” an NGO official told The Irrawaddy. “It should therefore consider
accepting assistance from international organizations and governments."

Cyclone Giri hit Kyaukpyu, Myebon, Pauktaw, Anm, Myanaung, Yanbyae,
Ponnagyune and Sittwe in Arakan State with winds of up to 120 miles on
Oct. 22. About 170 people died and more than 200,000 people were made
homeless, according to local sources.

Extensive areas of rice fields and farms, along with dams and more than
100,000 acres of shrimp ponds were destroyed.

____________________________________

November 5, Irrawaddy
Military family members ordered to re-do vote

Rangoon—The family members of navy personnel in Seikgyikanaungto in South
Dagon District have been ordered to re-do their advanced votes after
authorities inspected envelopes and found that many family members did not
vote for the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. Many
voted for the opposition National Democratic Force, sources said.
____________________________________

November 5, Democratic Voice of Burma
Activists mark second vote behind bars – Dan Withers

Forty-five political prisoners who were behind bars during Burma’s last
elections two decades ago look likely to spend 7 November in jail as the
country once again goes to the polls.

A list of their names, which includes democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, was
recently published by the Assistance Association for Political
Prisoners-Burma (AAPP), based in Mae Sot on the Thai-Burma border. Many of
the captives have been in jail for each of the 20 years since the 1990
elections, when Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won a landslide
victory which was ignored by the junta.

Since then, Suu Kyi has spent at least 15 of the last 20 years under house
arrest in Rangoon. Her latest sentence began in August 2009 after she was
convicted of violating the terms of her house arrest for allowing an
American man to stay at her home for two days. She is scheduled to be
released on 13 November.

Also on the AAPP list is Min Ko Naing, who received a 20-year sentence in
1989 for his role leading the 1988 student uprising against military rule.
He was released in 2004 after being tortured and spending years in
solitary confinement, but continued his political activities.

In August 2007 the student leader was arrested for starting the protests
which eventually led to the monks’ uprising, commonly known as the Saffron
Revolution. Today he is in solitary confinement in Kengtung prison after
receiving a 65-year sentence in November 2008.

Burmese comedian Zarganar also spent the 1990 polls in jail for making
political speeches that angered the junta. His release failed to silence
him, and he is now serving a 35-year sentence for criticising the
government’s handling of the 2008 cyclone Nargis disaster.

The 45 prisoners on the AAPP list are among some 2,200 political prisoners
currently jailed in Burma. The Burmese government has so far ignored
widespread calls by the international community to release the prisoners
before Sunday’s elections.

Last week UN chief Ban Ki-moon urged the junta to release the captives
before the polls. Otherwise, said Ban, “there may certainly be some issue
of legitimacy or credibility”. With just two days to go, their release
looks unlikely.

The junta “clearly isn’t taking any chances”, said Benjamin Zawacki of
Amnesty International. The government had learned from its defeat at the
polls in 1990 and its success in getting the 2008 constitution approved
overwhelmingly in the devastating aftermath of cyclone Nargis, he said.

The continuing incarceration of political activists undermined the
suggestion that the government had complete control over Burma, he said.
“Clearly its calculation is that releasing these people prior to the
elections
is too great a risk.”

Amnesty International did not expect to see much change in the political
prisoner population following Sunday’s polls, Zawacki said. He added that
an exception might be made for Suu Kyi, whose term of house arrest is
“globally known” to end next week.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 5, Mizzima News
Ethnic alliance to set up ‘federal army’ – Jai Wan Mai

Chiang Mai – Six armed ethnic groups that formed an alliance this week
against the Burmese Army amid fears of a post-election junta offensive
have set the formation of a “federal army” as their main priority,
according to Radio Free Asia and independent sources.

The primary goal was set after a series of meetings in northern Thailand
yesterday, at which the bloc also decided to create a working committee to
carry out political and military strategies as a joint force.

The alliance comprises ceasefire groups, the Kachin Independence
Organisation (KIO), New Mon State Party (NMSP) and Shan State Army North
(SSA-N); and non-ceasefire groups, the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni
National Progressive Party (KNPP) and Chin National Front (CNF).

It named Kachin Independence Army (KIA) chief Major General N-Ban La Aung
as its chairman. He is also deputy chief of the KIA’s political wing, the
KIO. Major General Mutu Saypo from the KNU is vice-chairman, NMSP
secretary Nai Hang Thar, the general secretary, and Shwe Myo Thant from
the KNPP, joint-secretary.

The group expected the Burmese Army to launch attacks on one of its
members some time after Burma’s first elections in 20 years on Sunday. The
aim of the alliance was to assist each member fend off any such
offensives, the report said.

Tension between ceasefire groups and the Burmese Army has escalated since
groups such as the KIO, UWSA, 1st Brigade of the SSA-N, National
Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) and the NMSP
refused to become part of the Border Guard Force (BGF), a junta proposal
requiring that the groups bring their troops under junta Burmese Army
command.

In September, the Burmese Army launched three small attacks on the 1st
Brigade of the SSA-N. At the same time, junta mouthpiece the New Light of
Myanmar daily newspaper branded the KIO “insurgents”, possibly the first
time the group has been so labelled in the 16 years since the ceasefire
agreement was reached.

Meanwhile, four clashes have already taken place between the Shan State
Army South (SSA-S, a non-ceasefire group) and the Burmese Army in central
and eastern Shan State since mid-October. The toll was 11 Burmese troops
killed and more than a dozen wounded, according to sources inside Shan
State. The SSA-S also managed to seize some weapons from their foes.

Some of the ethnic group’s fighters were also wounded in the clashes,
according to the Shan Herald Agency for News reports.

Sao Lao Hseng, spokesperson for the SSA-S said: “Our fighters attacked
specific units of the Burmese Army because they couldn’t bear to see the
villagers being abused by the Burmese soldiers. Our soldiers retaliated
because of the actions of the Burmese soldiers.”

Recently, he said, Burmese troops had abused villagers, who had then
complained to SSA-S fighters active in the area. He cited the 510 light
infantry battalion (LIB), alleging that it had assaulted villagers and
taken property whenever its men entered a village in Mong Yawn area, Mong
Kung township.

The spokesman warned: “We have a duty to protect our people and we will
retaliate against the units of the Burmese Army that are abusing our
people.”

The SSA-S, commanded by Sao Yawd Serk, is the only Shan armed force that
has continuously fought the Burmese Army. It was reformed after the Mong
Tai Army led by Khun Sa surrendered in 1995.

The group has strong bases along the Thai-Burmese border and its
headquarters is in Loi Tai Leng, opposite Mae Hong Son province, Thailand.
It is believed to be the strongest force among the non-ceasefire groups.

Meanwhile, a long-time Burma analyst told Mizzima that the committee was
also making approaches to the SSA-S and UWSA because of their strong
forces and that so far, the former group was considering that offer.

“But the SSA-S wants to see real action rather than political firefights,”
he said. “Without SSA-South and UWSA, the KIO is the strongest group.”

The analyst believed the UWSA was the smartest of the armed ethnic groups.
“They play deaf and dumb on politics but they haven’t lost any ground.
Instead, they’ve actually extended their territory and their army.”

He also relegated the NDAA and Mong La groups to the status of “playthings”.

“[Those two groups] are their [UWSA’s] puppets. There are many UWSA troops
in NDAA areas, which means their front line is in NDAA’s sector, not
Pangsang.”

Some might label them drug lords but they were powerful, the analyst said.
The United Nations was running projects in their area as well, he added.

“The funny thing about the alliance is that there are many alliances among
exile groups and armed opposition groups 
 but no significant action,” he
said.

____________________________________

November 5, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Myanmar vote rigged, shouldn't be recognized, exiles say

Dhaka – Myanmar exiles living in Bangladesh on Friday asked the
international community not to recognize the results of Myanmar's general
election this weekend because they said it was run by the ruling military
junta there and would only benefit the junta.

'This upcoming election is only the creation of the military junta to
benefit a small number of high-ranking military officers and to lengthen
their bad rule,' said Mra Raza Linn, the president of the Rakhaing Women's
Union, during a protest on the streets of Dhaka.

The group of more than 20 women gathered in front of the Supreme Court
building, chanting slogans against the military rulers in Myanmar and
seeking assistance from other countries in their fight for
self-determination.

'We earnestly request our neighbouring countries - Bangladesh, India and
China - to help us get real democracy and get the right of
self-determination for the ethnic minorities in the country,' a statement
issued after the demonstration said.

The demonstrators carried placards and banners, one of which said, 'The
2010 election is for the military junta, not for the Burmese people.'

More than 200,000 citizens of Myanmar, which is also called Burma, live in
exile in squalid slums in neighbouring Bangladesh's south-eastern Cox's
Bazar district. A handful has received refugee status.

Myanmar is to hold its first general election in 20 years Sunday, but
critics of its regime argued that it has been stage-managed by the junta
that has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1988.

It lost the 1990 election to the pro-democracy National League for
Democracy (NLD), but the junta never let the party take power.

For Sunday's election, authorities introduced regulations effectively
disqualifying the NLD from running.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 5, CNN
As vote looms, Myanmar's economic woes remain – Derrick McElheron

For the first time in 20 years, the people of Myanmar will be voting for a
new government. But with the ruling military's political wing virtually
guaranteed a victory, critics say there is little hope the country will
escape what's been described as a legacy of economic mismanagement.

"In many ways, it's the civilianization of military rule," said Danny
Richards, a senior economist from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
"They've been particularly poor in terms of managing the economy over the
past few decades. I think that's likely to be the case for the next few
years."

The two main political parties backed the by junta are the Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the National Unity Party
(NUP). Both are stacked with former military leaders and businessmen with
connections to the military regime. The country's most well-known
opposition party, National League for Democracy, was dissolved by the
government. Its famous leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remains under house
arrest.

Myanmar, also known as Burma, has been ruled by the military since a coup
in 1962. Under its rule, the country has been transformed from one of
Southeast Asia's largest and richest to one of the poorest in the region.

"Burma has no economic problems apart from political ones that hold it
back," said Sean Turnell, a specialist on Myanmar's economy at Macquarie
University in Sydney. "Burma began the 20th century the richest country in
Southeast Asia. What's happened in 100 years is bad governance."

Analysts say "bad governance" has led to the development of two parallel
economies: A so-called above ground economy and a vibrant underground
market that is, by some estimates, equal in size.

"The average person produces food for personal consumption," said Turnell.
"They basically trade with each other at a local market or something, and
don't interact in the formal economy."

Much of the official or above ground economy is driven by the country's
abundance of natural resources.

"It is pretty much energy, petroleum and mining," said Richards. "That's
where Myanmar is benefiting from huge demand from China, Thailand and
others in the region," he said.

Myanmar has been able to grow that part of its economy, despite the
presence of economic sanctions by many western countries, including the
United States. The sanctions block companies and investors from doing
business with the Myanmar government and ban the sale of goods imported
from Myanmar. But not everyone believes the sanctions work.

"The sanctions with regards to buying goods produced in Burma like
garments, wood products and what have you simply prevent the Burmese from
doing business with the outside world," said Dominic Faulder, a journalist
and Myanmar expert. "These sanctions don't apply to India or to ASEAN
(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) or to South Korea or China. So,
basically Burma is sitting with people around it who are willing to do a
certain amount of trade and who will buy gas and energy from the country."

Natural gas has become Myanmar's biggest export earner, according to the
EIU. It says natural gas accounts for more than 38 percent of total export
revenue. Most of it goes to Thailand. China is also building pipelines to
ship oil and gas from Myanmar to Yunnan province. The project is expected
to be completed by 2013. India has also been investing in Myanmar's power
sector, as it looks to secure future energy supplies.

Other major exports include pulses, such as chick peas and red beans, as
well as teak and hardwood products.

Myanmar's official GDP numbers are not considered reliable or accurate,
analysts interviewed by CNN said. But the EIU forecasts real GDP growth
will be about 3.1 percent in 2010 and expand to 4 percent in 2011. That
includes the energy and petroleum industry, which attract a lot of foreign
investment. Strip those out, Richards said, and you are left with an
economy that is going to continue to be weak.

"The business environment is extremely tough still," said Richards. "You
need good contacts within the military to set up new projects."

It's believed the ties between business and the military will extend
beyond the election. Military rulers reportedly have been quietly selling
many of the state's largest assets as they prepare for political
transition.

"They have put an enormous amount of the government holdings in the hands
now of private business," said Priscilla Clapp, former U.S. chargé
d'affaires for Myanmar between 1999 and 2002. The secretive regime has not
commented on the reports.

Clapp believes many of the country's senior generals, who are retiring
from the military to join the new government, want to bring these assets
with them as they transfer to civilian life.

"It's pretty crass," said Clapp. But she also says the transfer could
improve conditions "to the extent that marketization brings a different
set of incentives to bear on the way business and economic decisions are
made," she said.

"All of these guys retiring and going into politics, they're going to
develop a different set of interests. They're going to have to do
different things to keep themselves in power," said Clapp. "That is going
to change the economic landscape somewhat after the elections. It's
difficult to say how it's going to change it, but that process has
started."

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 5, Mizzima News
British envoy: junta elections defy all EU fairness criteria – Dr. Shawn
Smith

Bangkok – Officially, the British government is taking a “wait-and-see”
posture on the outcome of Burmese elections on Sunday, but, given the
junta’s failure to even nearly satisfy international norms, the polls’
fairness was most unlikely, Britain’s envoy to Burma told reporters in
Bangkok last night.

British Ambassador to Burma Andrew Heyn’s comments came as he shared his
views at the Foreign Correspondent’s Club of Thailand.

The failure of the Burmese government to come anywhere near the European
Union’s guidelines for free and fair polls, Heyn said, left him only able
to pass his personal verdict on the likely outcome: “I do not believe the
elections will be free and fair; they will not be run freely and fairly,
and they will not be representative.”

The majority of the ambassador’s presentation focused on a detailed and
compelling argument to back up that claim.

EU guidelines indicated seven criteria for a properly-conducted election
campaign: transparency of the process; existence of an effective,
impartial and independent electoral commission; equal access for all
candidates and parties to state resources; equal access to state-run
media; an effective voter-education programme; a peaceful atmosphere; and,
the presence of outside observers or monitors, he said.

With the dubious possible exception of a peaceful atmosphere, Heyn
demonstrated point by point the failure of the Burmese regime to even
attempt to live up to these ideals. Instead, there had been a steady
programme of disenfranchisement of any party – such as Aung San Suu Kyi’s
National League for Democracy (NLD) – that might challenge the military’s
dominant role in Burmese politics, he said.

For example, the junta announced in mid-August that each candidate had a
mere two weeks to post a non-refundable deposit to qualify to contest the
polls, he said.

“The cost of putting up candidates, US$500 per candidate 
 is not a
refundable deposit, it’s a fee you don’t get back,” Heyn said.

While this may not seem an enormous sum of money, Heyn said this
requirement was coupled with a ban on opposition parties raising money
outside Burma. This violated several of the EU guidelines, including those
related to transparency and equal access, and was directly relevant to the
NLD’s decision to boycott the elections.

Heyn said the British government respected the decisions of those in the
democratic opposition who had decided to boycott the election, and those
who had decided to contest it in the hopes of working from within the
existing order. He added that both represented possible routes towards
progress, and that Britain was averse to pre-judging or undermining either
route.

What could the Britain do if, as expected, the election rubber-stamps the
military’s lock on political power in Burma? Heyn said that if the
unexpected happened and there were real signs of change, then the United
Kingdom would be willing to rethink its hard line on Burma.

If the moderately pro-government National Unity Party (NUP) for example
did as well as, or better than, the Union Solidarity and Development Party
(USDP, effectively a front for the military), and if the NUP seemed open
to genuine change, then there was something to work with, he said. If not,
sanctions had to remain in place, and the United Kingdom should consider
what it, as sitting chair of the United Nations Security Council, could do
to increase pressure on Burma.

“The United Kingdom has kept Burma very high on its international agenda,”
the ambassador stated, and indicated two specific measures that could be
taken.

One would be, with international co-operation, to place Burma in the same
kind of “high priority” status under which Sudan was currently considered,
he said. Another would be to push for a UN commission of inquiry into the
Burmese regime’s human rights abuses.

Such a probe has been suggested in a proposal first made in March this
year by UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Burma,
Tomás Ojea Quintana, to which dozens of countries have added their open
support.

Heyn, in response to questions, acknowledged that Britain and the West as
a whole were limited in what they could do in this regard, given the
co-operation afforded the Burmese regime by Asian nations, especially
China and Thailand.

On a positive note, the ambassador was clearly proud of the efforts
Britain in particular and the EU as a whole had made to provide
humanitarian aid to the people of Burma, most recently in response to the
aftermath of Cyclone Giri. He singled out Save the Children as an
organisation that had provided food, water and shelter to the victims of
that disaster.

Britain had pledged US$700,000 in relief aid to victims of the Category
Storm that slammed into western Burma’s Arakan State on October 22, killed
at least 50 and left more than 70,000 homeless, the United Nations office
in Rangoon said on Wednesday.

____________________________________

November 5, Associated Press
Suu Kyi's son seeks Myanmar visa to visit mother

Yangon, Myanmar – One of Aung San Suu Kyi's two sons is seeking a visa to
Myanmar to visit his mother for the first time in a decade, amid
speculation the opposition leader will be freed from house arrest after
this weekend's election.

Kim Aris, 33, lives in Britain and last saw his mother in December 2000.
He has repeatedly been denied visas ever since by the government in
military-ruled Myanmar.

Suu Kyi's lawyer Nyan Win said Friday that Aris was in the Thai capital,
Bangkok, and was "trying to get a visa to see his mother on her release."
He did not say if Aris had already submitted the visa request to the
Myanmar Embassy, which could not be immediately reached for comment.

Myanmar will hold its first election in 20 years on Sunday and Suu Kyi's
latest detention expires shortly after on Nov. 13. The military junta has
not confirmed if it will release her, but Suu Kyi's inner circle says they
are optimistic.

"We all believe that she will be released by Nov. 13," Nyan Win said.

Sunday's elections will be the first since Suu Kyi's opposition party won
a landslide victory in 1990 that the junta ignored. The fresh vote, which
Suu Kyi's party has been banned from taking part in, has been slammed
internationally as a sham designed to cement military rule in the country.

The 65-year-old Suu Kyi's political struggle has come at great personal
cost. She has been imprisoned or under house arrest for 15 of the past 21
years. She was first arrested in 1989 when her sons were 11 and 16.

Her late husband, British scholar Michael Aris, raised their two sons in
England. Their eldest son, Alexander Aris, accepted the Nobel Peace Prize
on his mother's behalf in 1991 and reportedly lives in the United States.

Michael Aris died of prostate cancer in 1999 at age 53, after having been
denied visas to see his wife for the three years leading up to his death.
Suu Kyi could have left Myanmar to see her family but decided not to,
fearing the junta would not allow her back in.

The family has maintained a strict code of silence and does not speak to
the media.

____________________________________

November 5, Voice of America
Burma's media focus on military leaders, parties ahead of election – Ron
Corben

Zaw Win, the MEMO 88 coordinator for Burma, says the limited access to
news left many Burmese reliant on foreign radio broadcasters, 05 Nov 2010

A report on Burma's election news coverage shows that there is very little
reporting on parties and non-government candidates in the lead up to
Sunday's vote. Media analysts say international radio plays a key role in
getting news to people in Burma.

MEMO 98, a media and research group based in Slovakia, concludes that
Burma's state-controlled media completely dominated reporting ahead of the
general elections.

The report said found there has been "an exceptionally limited range of
diversity" of reporting on candidates, officials and private media in
Burma.

The report, released Friday in Bangkok, says that state television news
reported only about key military leaders. On Myawaddy TV, almost 90
percent of news programs focused on Prime Minister Thein Sein. The
remainder of the news time featured senior leader Than Shwe.

The report said there are severe restrictions on the news media and heavy
censorship. An analyst for MEMO 98, Marek Mracka, says opposition
candidates have had limited access to local media.

"Basically there is no information about the candidates. I mean basically
the freedom of expression was completely," said Mracka. "They were not
able to use it. The overall conclusion is that with people in Burma
depending on information coming from state media, they really simply have
no information to make a choice, unfortunately."

There are more than 3,000 candidates in Sunday's election, from 37
political parties, with 29 million eligible voters. But more than 20
parties, including the leading opposition party, the National League for
Democracy, led by Aung an Suu Kyi, were disbanded under tough election
laws.

Zaw Win, the MEMO 88 coordinator for Burma, says the limited access to
news left many Burmese reliant on foreign radio broadcasters.

"The radio they can listen to, Voice of America, BBC, and Radio Free Asia
or Democratic Voice of Burma Radio. Radio is easy to listen, so they can
access all the information by radio," said Zaw Win. "For the television is
very limited. All the Internet is very limited. You have to go to Internet
cafe. Opposition groups' website you cannot access. Access denied all the
time."

Reports say Internet access has become increasingly restricted in recent
days, and access to many overseas websites denied. The government also
refused to issue visas to foreign journalists to cover the elections.

Zaw Win says local journalists face severe consequences for violating the
government's rules.

"Inside [Burma] they're going to arrest them if they're Burmese
journalists," said Zaw Win. "They are going to arrest and send them to the
prison with a heavy sentence. Some journalists are already in prison
because they criticise the government."

The Burma support group, Assistance Association for Political Prisoners,
says 40 people are incarcerated for media-related activities.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 5, The Nation (Thailand)
Minority legislatures will mean little to the Burmese military

Within 90 days following the election on Sunday, Burma will usher in a
new, if controlled, relationship related to the indigenous minorities in
the country. For the first time in Burmese history, various minority
groups will have seven "state" (provincial) legislatures in the seven
minority-dominated areas of the country that will have the authority to
deal with some aspects of local governance. This will match the seven
"regional" (also provincial) legislatures in Burman majority areas. These
fourteen provincial legislatures will supplement a bicameral national
legislature, in which the minorities will also have significant
representation.

All national and local representative organisations will be subject to
stringent military control, as active-duty officers will occupy 25 per
cent of all seats in all such legislatures. This military presence and the
leadership of the Tatmadaw (the armed forces) in governance have been
called by the present head of state, Senior General Than Shwe,
"discipline-flourishing democracy". All adjectivally modified
"democracies", however, have questionable relationships to the term
modified.

In this complex attempt to ensure continuing military control over the
society into the distant future, aspects of the loci of power still remain
obscure. What will be - at the minority level, where insurgencies have
plagued the country since independence in 1948 - the local relationship
between the military and the minority legislatures?

Burma is not only divided up into seven Burman states and seven minority
divisions (as well as six subordinate minority areas), but it is also
divided up into thirteen military commands, each of which has a military
commander who has in the past twenty years been the effective control over
his region.

The relationship between the regional commander and the new state
legislatures has not been spelled out in the constitution. The regional
commands are not coterminous with the boundaries of the minority states.

Many pro-government and some anti-government representatives will be
elected in minority areas. In addition, many members of the senior officer
class have been told to resign so they can run for office as civilians.
Minority area legislators need not all be from minority groups, as in some
areas significant numbers of the majority Burmans are also resident. But
the chair of each of these state legislatures will not be chosen by the
members of that legislature, but instead by the president of the Republic
of the Union of Burma, who will either be an active-duty or retired
military officer, or one very close to the military.

So an important dilemma arises: Will there be eventual tension between the
regional military commanders (who are all Burman) and the chairs of the
local legislatures in their areas, some of whom may be minorities?

The military command system is very strong in Burma, and power in the
society is highly personalised; those members of the military who have
retired under authority to run for various legislatures, and may be
appointed as chairs of the local legislatures, may be more senior than
regional commanders who have been recently assigned. In this case, the
local legislatures may trump the regional military command, as the officer
in the regional legislature may have out-ranked, or even have been a
commanding officer, of the regional military commander. Even if this does
not happen, then how will the exceedingly delicate problem of satisfying
minority interests be resolved under this still obscure minority-military
relationship?

This complex set of hierarchical patterns is not a theoretical political
science textbook issue. The present military junta has demanded that
minority ceasefire troops be integrated into the national army as Border
Defence Forces. To do so would effectively both castrate the minority
capacity for insurrection, as the junta intends, or as a force to demand
more local rights and autonomy, as some minority groups want. This new
military configuration was to have been implemented before the election,
but this has not happened and a number of deadlines have been passed, with
the result that the new government will have to deal with a most
contentious issue.

Complicating these issues are the relations between the national bicameral
Hluttaw (legislature) and the provincial ones, between younger and older
and retired and active-duty members of the Tatmadaw, and the glass
ceilings in the military and government for ethnic and religious
minorities.

The critical minority problems in Burma remain, as they have since
independence, the most important and difficult dilemma facing all
governments since that time. None of them have dealt with the issue
effectively or in a manner to satisfy minority concerns. So although the
new government may be inaugurated with great internal, military induced
fanfare, the spectre of minority issues still looms on the horizon.

David I Steinberg is distinguished professor of Asian Studies at School of
Foreign Service, Georgetown University. His latest volume is "Burma: What
Everyone Needs to Know."

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

November 5, European Burma Network
Election statement

We, the undersigned organisations, do not believe that fake elections due
in Burma on 7th November will be a meaningful step towards the promotion
of human rights and democracy in Burma. We therefore call on the
international community to unite behind a revived UN-led effort to secure
genuine dialogue between the dictatorship ruling Burma, the democracy
movement, including Aung San Suu Kyi and National League for democracy,
and ethnic representatives.

The extreme repression and human rights abuses taking place in Burma make
it impossible for elections to be free and fair.

·         More than 2,100 political prisoners remain in jail, including
more than 400 members of the main opposition party, the National League
for Democracy
·         Military attacks continue against ethnic groups, which the UN’s
own Burma human rights expert has said should be investigated as possible
war crimes and crimes against humanity.
·         The National League for Democracy has been banned.
·         Strict election laws make it impossible for political parties to
operate freely.
·         Voting has been banned in many ethnic areas.
·         The cost of standing as a candidate is more than the average
annual income in Burma.
·         Media is censored and biased towards pro-regime parties.

However, even if the elections were free and fair, it would not bring real
change to Burma, as a new constitution which comes into force after the
elections is written by the military solely to preserve dictatorship. With
25 percent of seats in Parliament guaranteed for the military, it is
impossible to change the constitution, as more than 75 percent of votes in
the Parliament are required. Power will lie not with parliament, but
instead with a new National Defense and Security Council which will be
dominated by the military.

Furthermore, by refusing to grant rights and some level of autonomy to
Burma’s ethnic nationalities, and instead seeking to extend control over
ethnic areas by forcing groups on ceasefire to submit to becoming part of
the Burmese Army, the elections and new constitution threaten increased
conflict and instability.

None of the reforms normally seen from a dictatorship beginning a process
of change have taken place in Burma. Instead repression in Burma has
increased.

Since 2003 the international community has largely focussed on trying to
reform the dictatorship’s so-called roadmap to democracy. Not a single
political reform or compromise proposed by the United Nations or others
has been accepted.

The United Nations Security Council, United Nations General Assembly,
United Nations Secretary General, the G8, European Union and many other
governments have all stated that the solution to Burma’s problems lies in
securing genuine dialogue between the dictatorship, the democracy movement
and ethnic representatives. However, no serious coordinated effort to
secure such dialogue has ever been made. The last serious effort to secure
dialogue was initiated by UN envoy Razali Ismail ten years ago, but this
largely excluded ethnic representatives.

It is time for Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to personally take the lead
in securing dialogue that leads to national reconciliation and a
transition to democracy. He should have the full and high level backing of
governments around the world. The excuse that we must wait and see what
happens with the elections can be used no longer. Now it is time for
action.

The European Burma Networks brings together organisations promoting human
rights and democracy in Burma, and works in solidarity with Burma’s
democracy movement.

Actions Birmanie (Belgium)
Association Suisse-Birmanie
Austrian Burma Center
Burma Action Ireland
Burma Aktion (Germany)
Burma Campaign UK
Burma Center Prague
Christian Solidarity Worldwide
CISL - ITALY
European Karen Network
Info Birmanie
Norwegian Burma Committee
Olof Palme International Center, Sweden
People in Need, Czech Republic
PES Stockholm
Socialdemocratic Students of Sweden
The Swedish Burma Committee


____________________________________

November 5, Shwe Gas Movement
2010 elections will leave people of Burma in the dark

Despite the Burmese military regime’s claims that the entire country will
enjoy electricity after the 2010 election, its national power development
plans, set to be rubberstamped by its incoming proxy government, spell
otherwise. The vast majority of the country’s natural resources are
destined for export, not for nationwide electrification.

Burma's current power production capacity is only 2,848 megawatts and
nearly 80 % of the Burmese population are living without electricity, with
electricity consumption rates per capita under 5% of Thailand and China.
Despite this, the regime has already signed contracts to sell off most of
its remaining energy resources to investors from these and other
neighbouring countries.

Instead of using Burma’s natural gas assets to boost domestic energy
production, the regime has been selling off gas from the Yedana and
Yetagun gasfields to Thailand, earning over US$5 billion since 1998. Its
plans to export gas from the Shwe gasfields to China will earn it a
further estimated US$29 billion over the next 30 years . Yet these
revenues are not spent for public good.

Up to 90% of over 40,000 megawatts to be produced by 48 new hydropower
projects currently under planning or construction is slated for export to
neighbouring countries, and will bring in further revenues estimated at
over US$4 billion dollars a year.

These power projects, as well as coal mining projects, are being
implemented solely for short-term profit of investors, and not for the
benefit of the people. Not only are local communities receiving no
electricity from the projects, but they are also suffering forced
displacement, and other serious social and environmental impacts. The 2008
constitution contains no provisions to protect local people against such
exploitation of natural resources and no mechanisms for revenue
transparency .

We therefore strongly denounce the sham November 7, 2010 elections, which
will be used by the regime to legitimize its hold on power and to
rubberstamp its lucrative energy deals with neighbouring countries. The
regime’s power plans, quite literally, spell darkness for our people.

Contact person
Wong Aung (Shwe Gas Movement) - +66-873008354
Ah Nan (Burma Rivers Network) – +66-848854154
Email – wongaung at gmail.com, burmariversnetwork at gmail.com
For more information – www.burmariversnetwork.org, www.shwe.org