BurmaNet News, November 11, 2010

[Editor]

November 11, 2010, Issue #4082

INSIDE BURMA
Reuters: Myanmar's top court rejects Suu Kyi's final appeal
National (UAE): Parties condemn 'daylight robbery'
WSJ: Frustration rises as Myanmar election results trickle in
DVB: USDP accuses opposition of stealing votes

ON THE BORDER
Bernama (Malaysia): Myanmar nationals reluctant to return home
Irrawaddy: The drums of war beating
AFP: Myanmar rebel groups form new alliance: activist

ASEAN
Free Malaysia Today: Kick Myanmar out of Asean'

INTERNATIONAL
Bua News (South Africa): SA calls for reform in troubled Myanmar
DPA: “Manipulation” after Myanmar election, says German foreign minister

OPINION / OTHER
Manila Times (Philippines): Kipling’s ballad and the junta
The Nation (Thailand): Army should not decide the fate of Burmese refugees
– Editorial
Mizzima: United Nations, Asean and the cut and paste election – Dr. Shawn
Smith
Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi's release will raise hope and expectation – Aung Zaw




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 11, Reuters
Myanmar's top court rejects Suu Kyi's final appeal – Aung Hla Tun

Yangon - Myanmar's top court rejected a final and largely symbolic appeal
by detained Nobel peace prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi against her house
arrest, her lawyer said on Thursday, two days before her scheduled
release.

The Myanmar's Supreme Court decision was widely expected and has little
bearing on the expiry of Suu Kyi's house arrest term on Saturday, when a
sentence imposed last year for the violation of a security law is due to
end.

Suu Kyi, detained for 15 of the past 21 years, has voiced opposition to a
parliamentary election held last Sunday and easily won, as expected, by a
party set up by the military. She has called on her loyalists to expose
electoral fraud.

"The special appeal at the Supreme Court was the last resort," said lawyer
Nyan Win, who is also a spokesman for Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy (NLD) which was officially disbanded this year after deciding
not to contest the election.

"However, I still believe she will be released on or before Saturday when
her house arrest term expires. There is not any law to extend her house
arrest," he added.

But he said there had been no advance notice that the military junta would
agree to release the 65-year-old pro-democracy leader, who led the NLD to
a landslide victory in the last election in 1990, a result ignored by the
military.

"They never let us know this kind of thing in advance. We know it only
when it really takes place," Nyan Win said. "On the other hand, there has
been talk among top leaders of the NLD about going to meet her as soon as
she is released to talk about future policies of the party."
She was sentenced to house arrest in August last year for allowing an
American intruder to stay at her home in contravention of security rules.

The intruder, John Yettaw, said God had sent him to warn her she would be
the target of an assassination plot.

There has been speculation that the regime, rather than honor a pledge to
release her on Saturday, would find another reason to keep her detained to
ensure a smooth transition for the government that will emerge from the
election.

Suu Kyi, daughter of the leader of the former Burma's campaign for
independence from British rule, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.

(Writing by Jason Szep. Editing by Andrew Marshall)
____________________________________

November 11, The National (United Arab Emirates)
Parties condemn 'daylight robbery' – Larry Jagan

Bangkok – Senior leaders in Myanmar's opposition were making plans for
Aung San Suu Kyi's expected release on Saturday as they denounced the
results from the country's first election in 20 years.

Ms Suu Kyi, the face of the country's pro-democracy movement and a Nobel
Peace laureate, has spent most of the past 21 years in detention.
Officials have stepped up security around Ms Suu Kyi's Yangon residence in
anticipation of her release.

"We expect her to be free on Saturday, because the junta has to follow its
laws," Win Tin, 81, the spokesman for the National League for Democracy
(NLD), Ms Suu Kyi's party, and a former political prisoner who spent more
than 19 years in Insein Prison, said in an interview on Monday. "We will
need to discuss many things. We will also be looking at the impact
sanctions have had on the people before deciding what the future policy
should be."

The NLD, which has officially disbanded as a political party but remains
active, has formed a committee to investigate fraud allegations, Win Tin
said yesterday.

He said Ms Suu Kyi "will actively get involved in the [fraud
investigating] committee and give advice when she is released".

Win Tin and other leaders of the NLD are planning to gather at the gate to
Ms Suu Kyi's residence if she is freed. Her son, Kim Aris, is in Bangkok
waiting for a visa, in the hope he can also see her free.

"It's probably 50-50 that she will be released," said Maung Zarni, a
Myanmar academic at the London School of Economics and founder of the Free
Burma Coalition. Burma is the former name of Myanmar.

Military leaders claimed to have convincingly won the country's elections
on Sunday, which were widely denounced as a fraud.

The opposition is strenuously contesting these results.

Unofficial results suggested that the military's favoured party, the Union
Solidarity and Development Party, has won more than 80 per cent of the
seats in the two national assemblies. Some estimates from Myanmar military
sources now put it at more than 90 per cent. Official results are expected
to be released tomorrow.

"The Tatmadaw [Myanmar army] and government officials are still
traumatised by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy's
overwhelming victory 20 years ago and have left nothing to chance," the
US-based Myanmar author Win Min said. "Than Shwe [the junta leader]
ordered his people to make sure the vote eclipsed the NLD's performance in
1990 [when it won some 80 per cent of the seats]," he said.

The NLD refused to re-register with the electoral commission and were
barred from Sunday's polls. The NLD and its leaders, including Ms Suu Kyi,
object to the constitution, which reserves 25 per cent of the seats in
parliament for the military, and electoral laws which they say are unfair
and restrictive. Instead, they urged voters to boycott the elections.

Thirty-seven parties contested the election for more than 1,000 seats in
two national assemblies and 14 regional parliaments. So far only a handful
of politicians from non-junta parties have been declared winners in their
constituencies.

"The junta has stolen this election," Khin Maung Swe, the leader of the
National Democratic Front (NDF), the main opposition party and a breakaway
from the NLD, told The National. "It was daylight robbery."

The NDF stood in more than 160 constituencies, and according to their
observers who monitored the count, won most of the seats. However, most of
their victories were overturned by the electoral officers adding the
advance votes - from absentee and postal votes from abroad, and government
civil servants, teachers and soldiers who were encouraged to vote early -
to the count.

The other main opposition party, the Democratic Party - associated with
the deceased former prime minister U Nu - suffered as well. "If my father
were alive, he would say this election is the dirtiest election ever in
our country, fraught with all sorts of vote-rigging," said Mya Than Than
Nu, one of U Nu daughter's.

"I was not allowed to enter the polling station and was not able to send
party agents there to monitor the vote count. But I knew bags of advance
ballots were coming in from nowhere. At the end of the vote counting, the
margins were so wide that I could not believe it."

Several parties have already lodged complaints with the electoral
commission, but most are unlikely to proceed with them, said a western
diplomat based in Yangon on condition of anonymity. It will cost the
equivalent of US$10,000 (Dh36,700) to proceed with the complaint, and if
they lose the case they will be given a $3,000 fine and three years in
jail. Instead, a leading opposition politician, Than Nyein, has urged his
party's candidates and others not to sign declarations recognising any
controversial poll results.

"We never expected that this election would be free and fair. We all
accepted lots of restrictions from the election laws to campaign rules.
But what we have faced is far more than we anticipated."

____________________________________

November 11, Wall Street Journal
Frustration rises as Myanmar election results trickle in

Yangon—Frustration over Sunday's national election in Myanmar is rising as
evidence mounts that government-backed candidates dominated the polls amid
reports of voting irregularities.

Myanmar's secretive military regime has only slowly released official
results. As of Thursday, the government's Union Solidarity and Development
Party had won 140 of the 182 contested parliamentary seats whose outcome
was reported by election officials. Prime Minister Thein Sein and other
prominent members of the ruling junta were among the winners.

Overall, about 1,150 seats are at stake for a new national parliament and
several regional assemblies. Leaders from the USDP have said privately
they are confident they won 75% to 80% of the seats in play, the
Associated Press reported.

Residents and analysts widely expected the USDP and its pro-military
allies to win a parliamentary majority in what was Myanmar's first
national election in 20 years. Still, the scale of its apparent victory
appears to have surprised and demoralized many residents. The military
remains deeply unpopular in Myanmar after nearly five decades of harsh
rule, including a brutal crackdown on monk-led antigovernment protests in
2007 that left more than 30 people dead.
Myanmar Election 2010

"We knew it was going to be bad, but not this bad," said one Yangon
resident, a travel-company owner who said he opposes the military regime.

Several opposition groups, including the party of famed pro-democracy
advocate Aung San Suu Kyi, which was disbanded by the government earlier
this year, have said they believe there may have been widespread fraud,
and are considering raising more-formal complaints. The second-largest
party—a pro-military group, the National Unity Party, loyal to late
strongman General Ne Win—has joined in the criticism despite being viewed
as being broadly pro-establishment.

"The election process is absolutely unfair," said 82-year-old retired
Brigadier Aye San, a senior NUP official, the Associated Press reported.

The U.S., Japan, the Philippines and Britain are among the countries
criticizing the conduct of the vote. Much of the criticism has focused on
the handling of advance ballots in areas where residents for various
reasons were unable to vote on Sunday. Those ballots are believed to have
heavily favored the USDP, residents and opposition leaders say.

Attempts to reach the Myanmar government to discuss allegations of fraud
were unsuccessful. It has repeatedly said its vote, part of a "roadmap to
democracy" aimed at ending decades of military rule, would be free and
fair. The government has re-emphasized that position in recent days in
state-run publications, with numerous reports detailing efforts by
election officials to ensure the contest was free of manipulation.

Some Asian governments have endorsed the election. Vietnam, speaking as
chair of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, to which
Myanmar also belongs, described it as "a significant step forward," while
China welcomed what it called a "steady and smooth" vote.

The likelihood of unrest on the streets of Yangon and other cities remains
low, residents say, given the regime's record of attacks on critics. That
includes torture and the imprisonment of more than 2,000 political
opponents, according to human rights groups. Many residents interviewed
this week said they felt powerless to express an opinion about the
election in public, much less organize protests.

Still, public frustration could complicate government deliberations over
whether to release Ms. Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate whose latest term of
house arrest ends on Saturday. Her lawyers have tried to secure an earlier
release, and on Thursday Ms. Suu Kyi lost a final appeal of her conviction
for violating a previous period of house arrest by briefly sheltering an
uninvited American who swam to her lakeside home last year.

The government has repeatedly extended the house arrest, keeping Ms. Suu
Kyi in detention for 15 of the past 21 years. But many residents are now
hopeful her release is imminent. The government has dropped hints in
conversations with diplomats and local journalists in recent weeks, and
this week granted a visa to Ms. Suu Kyi's younger son, Kim Aris, a
33-year-old British resident who had been denied entry for years.

Ms. Suu Kyi's release, if it happens, could give a voice to much of the
frustration now being felt and result in large crowds coming out to see
her, some residents believe. That's something the government has
consistently tried to prevent since Ms. Suu Kyi's political organization
overwhelmingly won the country's last national election in 1990. The
government subsequently ignored those results.

Ms. Suu Kyi has indicated through her lawyer in recent days that she will
not accept anything short of an unconditional release, raising the
possibility of an odd situation in which the government actively tries to
release Ms. Suu Kyi even as she refuses to leave her home.

Frustration over the vote could also fuel further unrest in border areas,
where Myanmar's sizable ethnic minorities—making up as much as 40% of the
national population—have long resisted central-government rule. Fighting
that broke out between government troops and ethnic rebels along the
border earlier this week appeared to have ended by Thursday, with
thousands of refugees returning to their homes after seeking temporary
shelter in nearby Thailand.

But ethnic leaders have vowed to combine forces to bolster their position
against the government, and many analysts say they believe more skirmishes
could break out in the coming weeks.

The dilemma for opposition parties now is whether to go ahead and accept a
handful of parliamentary seats they appear to have won or risk upsetting
the regime by stepping up their public attacks on the voting. It remains
unclear how many seats the main opposition groups that
participated—including the National Democratic Force, a splinter group of
Ms. Suu Kyi's NLD, and some candidates who in the past have expressed a
desire to cooperate with the regime—were able to secure. Party leaders
have said they are confident they won at least a few seats.

The complaints from the pro-government NUP are particularly surprising,
residents and diplomats say. The NUP was expected by many foreign
diplomats and residents to do well in a free and fair election, if only
because it provided the sole alternative to the USDP in many areas where
opposition parties were unable to muster a candidate. In communities south
of Yangon, for instance, residents interviewed this week said they
believed there was overwhelming support for the NUP in their areas, mainly
because they didn't want to back the primary government party.
____________________________________

November 11, Democratic Voice of Burma
USDP accuses opposition of stealing votes – Aye Nai

The pro-junta party that swept to landslide victory in Burma’s elections
last week is rumoured to be filing a complaint about alleged vote stealing
by an opposition party in Arakan state.

The chairperson of the Rakhine [Arakan] Nationalities Development Party
(RNDP), Dr Aye Maung, said that he had heard of the rumours circulating
Sittwe, the capital of the western Burmese state, where his party won 35
of the 44 seats against stiff opposition from the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP).

“That is very strange – apparently they [USDP] are accusing us of stealing
their votes,” he told DVB. “Who knows, the rumours could come true.”

He said that the complaints would likely be filed by Dr Chan Thar and Dr
Than Shwe, two USDP candidates who lost seats to the opposition RNDP,
which fielded 46 candidates in a region where it has a strong support
base.

Dr Aye Maung added that the result had already been recognised by the
township-level Election Commission, but voiced concern over the fact that
the results had not yet been submitted to the State Election Commission,
the supreme authority in vote-related matters.

The USDP today had a further 50 seats confirmed in state media, to add to
the 34 already claimed on Monday, the day after Burma held its first
elections in 20 years. A USDP official said early this week that the
party, which is led by Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein and includes some
27 recently-retired junta officials, had won around 80 percent of the
vote.

Countless allegations of election fraud have however dogged the party’s
victory, much of which stems from the junta’s insistence that various
sectors of society, including Burmese nationals living abroad, cast
advance votes.

The apparently scant scrutiny over advance voting has added to fears that
much of the exercise was rigged; a concern compounded by the fact that no
foreign election monitors or journalists were allowed in the country
during the polls.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 11, Bernama (Malaysia)
Myanmar nationals reluctant to return home

Kanchanaburi, Thailand – The rumble of nearly continuous artillery
explosions and gunfire coming from the Phaya Tong Su area near Myanmar's
Three Pagodas Pass early Thursday morning led residents who fled to
shelter in Thailand's Kanchanaburi hesitate to return home.

No shells landed in Thailand's territory, Thai news agency (TNA) reported,
but the Myanmar people, who earlier returned to their homes after the
intensified fighting had earlier eased, crossed the border to return to
Thailand again on Wednesday evening.

The Surasee Task Force which oversees border security in Kanchanaburi
boosted security measures to prevent any armed group from entering Thai
territory.

Medical personnel are on stand-by in case the Myanmar nationals may get
injured from the fighting before entering Thailand.

Kanchanaburi's Sangkhla Buri district chief said the situation at Phaya
Tong Su seemed to have eased and some Myanmar people have gradually
returned home. However, he said shops at the border will remain closed for
another day for safety reason and if no fighting erupts, the situation
would be declared normal Thursday evening.

Myanmar nationals have crossed the border to Kanchanaburi's Sangkhla Buri
district since the clashes between the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
(DKBA) and Myanmar army forces inside the Myanmar border town of Phaya
Tong Su earlier this week.

Clashes also occurred in Myawaddy but the last group of Burmese and other
ethnic Myanmar people who fled fighting in Myawaddy to Mae Sot district in
Tak had returned home Wednesday morning.

____________________________________

November 11, Irrawaddy
The drums of war beating - Saw Yan Naing

“My house was hit. They were shooting at government troops, but they hit
my house. We were lucky that we left the house in time or we would have
been blown to pieces,” said a housewife who had fled Myawaddy and crossed
the Thai-Burmese border to Mae Sot.

“The fighting goes on, but we are the ones who suffer,” she said. “So many
of us are afraid to go back to Myawaddy. I am devastated.”

This housewife is just one of some 20,000 men, women and children who fled
their homes this week and sought refuge in Thailand after fighting erupted
on Monday in the Burmese border town of Myawaddy between Brigade 5, a
splinter group of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), and Burmese
government forces.

The Myawaddy clash produced thousands of refugees, putting a burden on the
Thai authorities and volunteers who strained to help the newcomers with
food and shelter. The Myawaddy refugees, however, started to return home
on Tuesday.

Observers say that Burma’s border instability impacts civilians on both
sides of the border.

Thai officials have said that the conflict severely affects trade at the
key border crossing. Estimates for border trade via Mae Sot-Myawaddy was
revalued at between 20 billion and 24 billion baht for this year, down
from an earlier projection of 30 billion baht (US $1 billion), according
to The Bangkok Post, an Thailand-based English-language newspaper.

Due to other disputes between the two countries, the border was, in fact,
closed in July.

In August 2009, more than 30,000 Kokang refugees fled into the Chinese
border town of Nansan in Yunnan Province due to Burmese army attacks
against the Kokang cease-fire rebels, the Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army (MNDAA).

Observers said this week's Myawaddy clash likewise represents the
breakdown of a cease-fire agreement, this time between DKBA Brigade 5 and
the Burmese government, a truce that had stood for some 15 years.

The DKBA signed a cease-fire agreement with the Burmese regime in 1995.
But, earlier this year, Col. Saw Lah Pwe's Brigade 5 was the only unit
that rejected the junta’s border guard force (BGF) proposal which other
battalions accepted.

“If they [the Burmese government forces] don’t do the right thing, their
lands will never be peaceful,” warned Maj. Cha Mu Say of DKBA Brigade 5,
adding that after siding with the Burmese regime for so long, it was now
time to “come back home and fight for the truth.”

Observers and DKBA sources predicted that increased guerrilla warfare will
target urban areas if the Burmese authorities cannot not solve the
conflict peacefully.

“Even though we have withdrawn our troops, we can retake the town at any
time,” said Cha Mu Say. “This is our area. We know how to maneuver here.”

Brigade 5 troops are now deployed outside Myawaddy and Three Pagodas Pass.
Several battalions from Burma's Light Infantry Division 22 were sent to
Three Pagodas Pass as reinforcements, according to a source close to the
police in Myawaddy.

Observers said the Thai authorities are unhappy with the border
instability and the added burdens of more refugees, and had parlayed with
Saw Lah Pwe to negotiate a cease-fire between his faction and the Burmese
government troops.

DKBA Brigade 5 sources, however, said its leaders told the Thai mediators
to request the Burmese army to halt all its military reinforcements.
Otherwise, the sources said, Brigade 5 would have no other option than to
react.

The tension between Brigade 5 and the Burmese government has been mounting
since Saw Lah Pwe's faction refused to transform its battalions into BGF
units under the control of the Burmese army.

James Lum Dau, the deputy chief of foreign affairs in the Kachin
Independence Organization (KIO), a cease-fire group that also rejected the
BGF, said, “If the junta don’t stop fanning the flames of war, the
situation will worsen.”

Zipporah Sein, the general secretary of the Karen National Union (KNU),
said she agreed that further government offensives against non-BGF ethnic
groups will intensify in the future.

The KNU has condemned the Myawaddy clash and released a statement on
Wednesday saying that the election will not solve the human rights and
humanitarian crises in Burma. Instead, it will result in continued or
increased repression and instability, and attacks on ethnic peoples.

The two ethnic leaders said armed conflict can only be solved through
genuine dialogue.

Nai Hang Thar, the general secretary of the New Mon State Party, said, “It
is actions such as these [the Myawaddy clash] that are the underlying
reasons why we rejected the BGF plan.”

David Scott Mathieson, a researcher for Human Rights Watch, said the
ethnic armed groups can regroup and become active at any time if they are
unsatisfied with the military government.

____________________________________

November 11, Agence France Presse
Myanmar rebel groups form new alliance: activist

New York — Six Myanmar ethnic rebel groups have formed a coalition to step
up hostilities with the country's junta, a representative for an activist
group said.

Three of the groups had previously signed ceasefire accords with the
junta, which faces renewed international criticism over the country's
November 7 national election.

The alliance accord was made three days before the election at a meeting
in Thailand, Gum Sang Nsang, a representative of the Kachin National
Organization said following a meeting at the UN headquarters late Tuesday.

The Kachin National Organization is allied to the Kachin Independence Army
(KIA), one of the signatories.

He said the others were the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), the
Karen National Union (KNU), the Mon New State Party (MNSP) and the Shan
State Army-North (SSA-N). Together they could muster at least 30,000
fighters, he said.

The Kachin group, the MNSP and the Shan State Army had all signed
ceasefires with the junta but had become disillusioned and rejected the
outcome of the vote, said Gum Sang Nsang.

He warned that hostilities would increasingly be moved to urban areas.
"The war will no longer be restricted to the jungle."

Gum Sang Nsang said the junta and ethnic rebel groups had both reinforced
their troop numbers in disputed areas since the election.

The Myanmar government has battled ethnic rebels since the former Burma
gained independence in 1948.

In border areas where civil war continues, rights groups have accused the
junta of waging a brutal counter-insurgency campaign involving the rape,
torture and murder of villagers whose homes are routinely destroyed.

____________________________________
ASEAN

November 11, Free Malaysia Today
Kick Myanmar out of Asean' – Patrick Lee

Kuala Lumpur: The Asean Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (APMIC) advised
booting Myanmar out of Asean if the junta persisted in ignoring the United
Nations over human rights violations.

“We call on Asean to support a proposal by the UN to establish a
Commission of Inquiry to look into possible war crimes and crimes against
humanity in Myanmar,” AIPMC chairman Lim Kit Siang said at a press
conference in Parliament today.

“Asean cannot be indifferent (towards the matter), and must take action
including suspension of membership from Asean.”

Lim, the Ipoh Timur MP, also said the recent Myanmar general election was
a “fake” as many votes had gone to the junta-backed Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP).

As the country's first national polls since the infamous 1988 uprising,
the recently-concluded general election has been widely criticised by many
organisations worldwide as being riddled with widespread electoral fraud.

Moreover, the absence of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, the National
League of Democracy's general-secretary, from the election has robbed the
polls of the stamp of legitimacy. (Suu Kyi has been under house arrest for
the past 20 years.)

“The counting process of the votes has not been transparent, and
complaints about voting fraud and other irregularities are growing
stronger,” Lim said, adding that polling continued despite the outbreak of
fighting between government troops and ethnic rebels along the
Thai-Myanmar border.

Horrible stories

Lim said that other complaints such as a rigged referendum, a
strictly-controlled constitution drafting process and intimidation of
political opponents had contributed to the problem.

He also said that the outcome of the election would create greater
instability in Myanmar and trigger a possible civil war.

Lembah Pantai MP Nurul Izzah Anwar said that the Malaysian government
needed to take action against Myanmar in the light of these events. “These
are not only in the interest of Myanmar but also in our interest,” she
said.

Ipoh Barat MP M Kulasegaran said that he had visited Myanmar's border
areas and had met with many refugees in the area.

“They have told me horrible stories of what is happening in the country,
and we propose to the UN to see if war crimes and ethnic cleansing have
been committed,” he added.

Lim said that although Myanmar's recent cooperation with UN Special
Rapporteur on Human Rights was a step in the right direction, it was
insufficient.

He also suggested that the International Criminal Court (ICC) take up the
Myanmar case, and act against the junta similar to its action against
Sudan President Omar al-Bashir.

Two arrest warrants against Bashir had been lodged by the ICC over
atrocities committed in Sudan. These included charges of war crimes,
genocide, and crimes against humanity.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 11, Bua News (South Africa)
SA calls for reform in troubled Myanmar

Pretoria - South Africa has called on the government of the military-ruled
nation of Myanmar to honour its undertakings to release all political
prisoners, including Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

This as voters in that country cast their first ballots in 20 years on
Sunday, in an election marred by intimidation of opposition and lack of
transparency.

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation said on Thursday
that while it respected the sovereignty of Myanmar, indications were that
the elections did not meet internationally acceptable standards in terms
of inclusivity, transparency and fairness.

"South Africa has closely followed the process that led to the elections
and concluded that conditions were not created for inclusive dialogue in
which all parties and interest groups could freely and openly
participate," said the department.

South Africa continued to respect the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Myanmar, but believes that an opportunity for progress
towards democratisation, nation building and reconciliation was lost.

Myanmar media reported that hundreds of potential opposition candidates
were either in prison or, like Suu Kyi, under house arrest and barred from
taking part in the poll.

The military has ruled Myanmar since 1962, when it was known as Burma.
Decades of human rights abuses and mistreatment of its ethnic minorities
have been reported.

The department said South Africa expresses hope that the new government
will show progress towards a transition to an inclusive, democratic
government, nation building and respect for human rights.
____________________________________

November 11, Deustche Press Agentur
“Manipulation” after Myanmar election, says German foreign minister

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, left, and his Russian
counterpart Sergey Lavrov, right, are seen during their meeting in Moscow,
on November 1, 2010. Photo: AP.
Vote—counting after Myanmar’s election at the start of this week is being
manipulated, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle charged in Berlin
on Thursday.

The proxy party of the Asian nation’s ruling junta, the Union Solidarity
and Development Party (USDP), is expected to be declared landslide winner
of Sunday’s polls, observers say.

“Even if an official final tally is still not available four days after
the polls, we’re obliged to note that there is clear evidence of
considerable manipulation to the disadvantage of the democratic opposition
during the counting of the votes,” Mr. Westerwelle said.

He said the opposition and parties representing ethnic minorities had been
disadvantaged by the poll rules.

“This cannot be called a free, fair and inclusive process,” he said,
adding, “Reports that the opposition succeeded in at least a few electoral
districts do show that the desire of the Myanmar people for democratic
change cannot be permanently suppressed.” He also called for the immediate
release from house arrest of leading opposition figure Aung San Suu Kyi.

Her current term of confinement is due to expire on Saturday.

Myanmar’s Supreme Court has rejected her appeal against detention

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 12, The Manila Times (Philippines)
Kipling’s ballad and the junta

Unfortunately, to the members of the junta and their quasi-military
hoodlums, reconciling for the sake of Burma’s prosperity with the rest of
the population, whom they have oppressed for so long, is like committing
suicide.

We must hope and pray that the leaders of  the Asean countries and of
China, the junta’s closest patron and source of lifeline support, can
persuade the Burmese generals to stop seeing their future in a democratic
Myanmar negatively.

The generals must not see reconciliation with their people as grimly as
those who grievously misunderstand Kipling’s “Ballad of East and West.” 
Those who misunderstand think the poem’s most famous line “Oh, East is
East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet . . . ” is a
pessimistic message about mankind and the future of the people who played
roles in British colonial history in India (of which Burma was a part).

In the junta generals’ minds, no doubt, their hearts can never meet and
unite with those of the Burmese, Kachin, Karen, Chan, Chin, Arakan and
others they have maltreated.

But if they would only listen to Kipling (and Orwell, the true Burma
hand), they would realize that the message is that East and West do
meet—even before “Earth and Sky stand presently at God’s great Judgment
Seat . . . ”

Why? Because in reality “there is neither East nor West, Border, nor
Breed, nor Birth, When two strong men stand face to face, tho’ they come
from the ends of the earth!”

Many are the examples of stark opposites—oppressors and oppressed—coming
together for the sake of their country’s greater good. They unite, forgive
and forget, to allow common sense and human solidarity to reign over their
land.

The experience of South Africa, its people blessed with the larger than
life hero Nelson Mandela, is the greatest example of national
reconciliation. After the dismantling of the cruel Apartheid regime, the
white men who ruled South Africa, with help from black police forces,
entered a civilized new life together with the population they had
oppressed in today’s new and happier nation.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, most of the dictatorial communist and
military juntas that oppressed their own people in East Germany, Poland
and other countries of the Soviet Union reconciled with their victims.
Now, after some adjustments, they have recreated their societies and
governments, respectful of human rights and well on the way to prosperity.
The generals and people of Burma/Myanmar could do the same.

____________________________________

November 11, The Nation (Thailand)
Army should not decide the fate of Burmese refugees – Editorial

Once again, the Thai government faces international condemantion over its
treatment of victims fleeing from persecution or warfare

The smoke from the shelling in Burma has yet to disappear and the Thai
Army is already forcing back the thousands of Burmese refugees who fled
renewed fighting between Burmese troops and rebels from the Democratic
Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). The fighting erupted in the wake of Burma's
first election in twenty years, held last Sunday

Whatever happened to all the conventions and treaties Thailand signed with
various international bodies, conventions that illustrate how much we care
for our fellow human beings? Perhaps Thailand never officially recognised
the concept of refugees in the first place, so therefore we are not
legally obligated to any course of action, much less obliged to follow
humanitarian convention. While it is easy to hide behind legal and
technical jargon, there is still an ideal called international standards
and norms that discourages the forcible repatriation of defenceless people
back into conflict zones.

Less than 48 hours after the fighting erupted between Burmese government
troops and a splinter group from the junta's long time ally, the DKBA,
Thai military commanders were already mapping out the return of the
refugees. The Third Army can argue otherwise, but excuse us for
questioning its action.

This week's clashes between the junta and the DKBA were not the first and
will not be the last, they are merely a sign of things to come. Ever since
the DKBA broke away from the Karen National Union (KNU) in 1995, nobody
has really believed that the good times between the Karen splinter group
and the junta would last. In fact, none of the ceasefire agreements
between the Burmese government and the various ethnic armies rest on solid
ground. They are exactly what they appear to be: ceasefire agreements only
- not comprehensive peace deals. And so when the man who orchestrated
these agreements - General Khin Nyunt - was ousted from power, one could
see that the writing was on the wall.

The junta - the State Peace and Development council (SPDC) - says it wants
to bring all the ethnic armies under its command, but says nothing about
an exit strategy for these groups. The junta only wants them to lay down
their weapons and transform themselves into border guards under the direct
command of the Tadmadaw (the Burmese armed forces). It says nothing about
their historical investment, the fate of their leaders, nor the status of
their people. In other words, the autonomous status they have previously
enjoyed will just disappear overnight.

This is wishful thinking on the SPDC's part. Given the kind of demands the
junta places on the ethnic armies, it is clear that peace has never really
been on the cards. Yes, some of these so-called investments by the ethnic
groups have been in opium cultivation and the illicit drug trade. But
Burma knew all along what the ceasefires - first signed two decades ago -
meant in real terms. It's just too convenient to label the "insurgents"
drug-dealers when in fact the generals also benefit from the drug money
that builds roads, hotels and other infrastructure.

Drugs and insurgency have always been two sides of the same coin in Burma,
and no anti-narcotics policy has any chance of success unless it takes
politics into consideration. If the junta is serious about peace, it
should explore exit strategies instead of demanding that the rebel groups
simply surrender and end the causes they have been fighting for since
independence from Britain in 1948.

The clashes between the junta and the DKBA could intensify. Thailand needs
to come up with a better way of handling the influx of refugees, if and
when more fighting occurs. We should not leave it up to the Army to decide
when and how these innocent victims are pushed back to Burma. It's not
uncommon to see refugees return to villages infested with landmines and
booby traps laid by Burmese troops. But the Thai Army doesn't to seem to
have any problem with the possibility that these people could lose life or
limb. To say the repatriation policy is heartless would be an
understatement.

 If our policy-makers can't find it in their hearts to do the right thing,
they should know that the whole world is watching. If we continue to
allow our bureaucrats and military leaders to get away with this kind of
action - as they have done in the past with Lao refugees, the Rohingya
boat people and others - then what kind of people are we?
____________________________________

November 11, Mizzima News
United Nations, Asean and the cut and paste election – Dr. Shawn Smith

Bangkok – In a few days’ time – a week or two at most – the junta will
have finished cutting and pasting the results of Sunday’s Burmese
parliamentary elections. How, if at all, will the United Nations react
when the final results come in?

United States President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
Clinton, in tandem with their Australian political colleagues, have
already made clear that they do not accept these elections as being fair
or representative.

Obama spoke quickly on the issue from neighbouring India; Clinton and US
Defence Secretary Dr. Robert Gates issued a joint statement from
Melbourne, with Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd and Defence
Minister Stephen Smith: “Australia and the United States underlined their
deep regret that the Burmese authorities failed to hold free, fair and
genuinely inclusive elections.”

Canada and the United Kingdom have also made clear their scepticism
regarding this election; the Canadian Ambassador to Burma, Thailand,
Cambodia and Laos, Ron Hoffmann, and the British Ambassador to Burma Andy
Heyn, have both spoken clearly and forcefully to that effect while at the
Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand in Bangkok. But the Britain and
the US are only two out of the five veto-wielding permanent members of the
United Nations Security Council, and Canada and Australia are without
seats.

One Asian nation that does currently have a seat – though not a permanent
one – is Japan. Over the past several years, Japan has attempted to find a
middle ground between the West’s relative intransigence towards the
Burmese regime and many Asian nations’ more accommodating approach. Japan
has provided development aid and economic co-operation to the Burmese
government, and has engaged it in diplomatic dialogue. But it has balanced
that dialogue with diplomatic pressure, including repeated calls for the
release of political prisoners, such as Aung San Suu Kyi, who may be
released this weekend.

How did Japan respond to Sunday’s election? With “deep disappointment”.
This contrasts with the attitude taken by Asean, which “welcomes” these
elections as a “significant step forward”, according to a statement made
by Vietnamese Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem on Monday. Vietnam is holder
of the Southeast Asian bloc’s chairmanship this year.

According to a Xinhua Chinese news agency report in the Philippine Star, a
daily English-language broadsheet based in Manila, Kheim said that Asean
was willing to support the Burmese junta whenever it was needed and in
compliance with the Asean charter.

“Asean welcomes the general elections held on 7th November 2010 in Myanmar
[Burma] as a significant step forward in the implementation of the
seven-point ‘road map for democracy’, and that Asean encourages Myanmar to
continue to accelerate the process of national reconciliation and
democratisation, for stability and development in the country,” the
statement said on the bloc’s secretariat website.

The response also seemed to backtrack on pre-poll criticism by Asean
members the Philippines and Indonesia. “There is a perception of a
credibility deficit but it’s not too late, we think, to try to address
that,” Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa told reporters in
Hanoi ahead of the grouping’s summit late last month.

Inside the summit, the Philippines offered a more stinging rebuke. The
government said in the document outlining President Benigno Aquino’s
position: “It is increasingly evident that the forthcoming elections 

will continue to be a farce to democratic values of transparency,
fairness, provision for [a] ‘level-playing field’, credibility and
all-inclusiveness”.

Furthermore, on Wednesday, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Dr.
Alberto Romulo submitted his entire “intervention” speech delivered at the
Asean summit on October 27 against Burma’s polls under the heading “On
Myanmar Elections” on the opinion pages of the Manila Bulletin newspaper.

“It is time for all of us in Asean not just to go along but to firmly urge
the Myanmar [Burma] government to implement its own ‘Roadmap to
Democracy’. This includes the immediate and unconditional release of all
political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the all-inclusive
participation of all parties and sectors in the electoral and democratic
process in the November 7 electoral exercise,” his speech read.

To release his speech again was a statement in itself, apparently to
counter his Indonesian colleague’s remark and say perhaps it was too late
after all. In short, the Asean statement papers over very real
disagreement among its member states.

In any event, no Asean nations hold seats on the Security Council, and
Japan is only one of 10 non-permanent members. The other nine, ranging
from Austria to Uganda, have little direct national interest in Burma, and
will no doubt line up with decisions made by one or more of the five
permanent members.

So, what score cards are the Big Five holding up? The US and Britain would
clearly be in favour of a stern response to Sunday’s election, and France,
while not in the lead on this issue, would no doubt agree. Russia has
significant economic interests in Burma, and has helped veto anti-junta
resolutions in the past. However, it is unlikely that Russia would stand
alone in opposition to an anti-junta resolution – Burma lies too far south
to any longer count as part of Russia’s “near abroad”, and why waste
political capital that might be needed nearer to home?

But Burma most definitely counts as part of China’s “near abroad”, its
increasing sphere of influence. China has been a major player in Burma’s
oil and gas industry, an important source of economic co-operation more
generally, a major source of weapons and of military training, a
significant source of foreign aid, a diplomatic ally and a consistent
shield against more robust international action in response to the junta’s
human rights abuses.

It must be noted that China has shown some signs of embarrassment over the
Burmese regime’s excesses. For example, in the last few days, China
finally withdrew its opposition to a UN report suggesting that Burma,
among other pariah nations, had been supplied with nuclear material by
North Korea. But, as with North Korea, just how far will China go in
allowing the international community to punish a rambunctious client
state?

By way of answer: The Global Times, an official Beijing mouthpiece, ran an
editorial on Monday titled: “Myanmar’s election a step forward”. According
to this opinion piece, Beijing supports Burma’s plan “
 to transform its
political system, but knows it will not happen overnight”.

In short, China could and would veto any substantive UN resolution on
Sunday’s “cut and paste” election.
____________________________________

November 11, Irrawaddy
Suu Kyi's release will raise hope and expectation – Aung Zaw

Suu Kyi’s aides and her faithful followers believe so. They say the Nobel
Peace Prize winner may be released from her latest term of house arrest
this weekend. They also predict that after her release, Suu Kyi will
mainly focus on diplomatic relations with foreign countries, both regional
and around the world.

The pundits inside and outside Burma wonder whether the regime would dare
to take the security risk of freeing Suu Kyi, with skeptics saying the
regime could extend her detention. Plenty of charges against Suu Kyi could
be cooked up, including her recent call to boycott Sunday's election, and
enough excuses could be found for not freeing her. The final decision
doubtless rests with junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe.

Suu Kyi's release would raise hope and expectation. The charismatic leader
remains a political figurehead in Burmese politics—ethnic leaders who
recently witnessed with concern the renewed fighting between junta forces
and a Karen splinter group say that, like her father, independence hero
Gen Aung San, she is the one who can reconcile Burma’s deep political and
ethnic divisions.

To those who quietly or openly question her relevance in Burmese politics
and her stance during her absence from the political scene, Britain's
Rangoon ambassador Andrew Heyn has the answer: “As for her relevance, all
the evidence points to a regime that still fears that she is very
relevant.”

Many will certainly agree with his assessment. But they also want to hear
what her next move is likely to be and her strategy to break the political
stalemate. They await her stance on western sanctions, her opinion of
Burma’s fixed election results, her policy on humanitarian assistance to
Burma, foreign investment, the proposed commission of inquiry into crimes
against humanity, and her views on the divided international approach
toward Burma—particularly on China’s much-criticized policy position.

But why should the regime need to free Suu Kyi at this time?

One reason is Sunday's election, in which the junta-backed Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) claims to have won an improbable
80 percent of the vote.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) said the election was a
“significant step forward.” Asean’s Vietnamese chair said in a statement
published by the Vietnamese state media on Tuesday: “Asean encourages
Myanmar [Burma] to continue to accelerate the process of national
reconciliation and democratization for stability and development in the
country.”

In other regional applause for the election, China's official Global Times
said Bejing supported “Myanmar's plan to transform its political system,
but knows it will not happen overnight.”

Opposition parties which contested the election were unhappy with the way
it was held and threatened to boycott the outcome because of widespread
fraud, a questionable practice of advance voting and other abuses. Twenty
candidates of three of the parties that contested the election launched a
nationwide action calling for a new vote, on the grounds that Sunday's
polling was neither free nor fair.

Suu Kyi, whose National League for Democracy boycotted the election, is
said to be interested in looking into the complaints of election fraud
once she is free.

Ethnic armed groups and ethnic opposition parties will certainly be
watching how Suu Kyi reacts to the conflict in ethnic regions and
anticipating her important role in the national reconciliation process.

Many will be watching to see how Suu Kyi deals with the “new landscape” in
Burma. There are hopes that Suu Kyi, now 65, will undertake her political
moves carefully and cautiously.

Even if Than Shwe decides to pull the strings from behind the scenes, Suu
Kyi will be encountering a new leadership. Suu Kyi can expect a new
generation of army leaders who are tough and hardline, however, and who
will not be too enthusiastic to see her tour Burma building up a
democratic opposition.

But how will this new leadership react to Suu Kyi and the political
potential she possesses? Or it will just be a vicious circle?