BurmaNet News, November 18, 2010

[Editor]

November 18, 2010 Issue #4087

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar democracy icon calls her detention illegal
BBC Burmese: Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi 'has foot soldiers' support'
DPA: UN chief and Suu Kyi hold first phone call
DVB: Final election results announced

BUSINESS / TRADE
Financial Times: Suu Kyi release sparks sanctions debate

HEALTH
AP: UN: Drug-resistant malaria spreading in Asia

REGIONAL
Kyodo: UNHCR wishes Myanmar refugees' successful resettlement in Japan
AFP: With Suu Kyi free, China’s Liu is only jailed peace laureate

INTERNATIONAL
Kyodo: U.S. accuses China, N. Korea, Myanmar of repressing religious freedom

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi release a junta strategy for sanctions removal? – Saw
Yan Naing
Reuters: After freeing Suu Kyi, Myanmar courts investors – Martin Petty
and Jason Szep
CNN: A new role for Aung San Suu Kyi? – Justin Wintle

INTERVIEW
Mizzima: Dialogue with The Lady, Aung San Suu Kyi – Sein Win




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 18, Associated Press
Myanmar democracy icon calls her detention illegal

Yangon, Myanmar — Myanmar's democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi said Thursday
that her recent release from seven years of detention did not signal a
softening in the military's harsh, decades-long rule of the Southeast
Asian nation.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Suu Kyi called her detention
illegal and said she was released simply because the decreed period of her
house arrest had ended.

"I don't think there were any other reasons," she said in an interview in
her small, Spartan office, decorated with little except a vase of flowers
and a black and white photograph of her late father, Aung San, who helped
lead colonial Burma to independence from Britain. "My detention had come
to an end and there were no immediate means of extending it."

The 65-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate, set free from her lakeside
residence Saturday, has made it clear she plans to pursue her goal of a
democratic Myanmar, which is also known as Burma, but has been careful not
to verbally challenge the junta or call for its overthrow.

Her most recent detention began in 2003 after she was blamed for an attack
by government thugs on her convoy. It was extended in 2009 when she
briefly sheltered an American man who swam uninvited to her decaying
villa.

"I never should have faced detention," she said.

Since Saturday, though, the generals and their longtime archrival have had
no contact.

"I haven't seen any sign of the junta at all since I came out. They
haven't made any move to let us know what they feel about the situation,"
said Suu Kyi, an unflappable and deeply charismatic woman who speaks with
an upper-class British accent.

She added, though, that her goals would not change: "I had better go on
living until I see a democratic Burma," she said, laughing.

She has called for face-to-face talks with junta leader Gen. Than Shwe to
reach national reconciliation.

Suu Kyi has been detained for 15 of the past 21 years but has remained the
dominant figure of Myanmar's battered pro-democracy movement. More than
2,200 political prisoners remain behind bars.

A week before her release, a military-backed political party swept the
first elections in 20 years amid widespread accusations that the balloting
was rigged. Final results have yet to be announced, but some military
candidates took 90 percent and more of the votes in their constituencies.

Many observers believe her release was timed to shift attention from the
elections and the international condemnation of them.

"It's a public relations maneuver to appease domestic opinion as well as
the international community, and to deflect attention from the fraudulent
Nov. 7 election," Bertil Lintner, a prominent writer on Myanmar, said in
an e-mail.

Suu Kyi acknowledged in the interview that her years of political work had
been difficult for her family.

"I knew there would be problems," she said of her midlife decision to go
into politics. "If you make the choice you have to be prepared to accept
the consequences."

Suu Kyi, who was largely raises overseas, married the British academic
Michael Aris and raised their two sons, Kim and Alexander, in England.

But in 1988, at age 43, she returned home to take care of her ailing
mother as mass demonstrations were breaking out against military rule. She
was quickly thrust into a leadership role, mainly because she was the
daughter of Aung San.

The personal costs of that have been staggering. She was unable to see her
husband before he died of cancer in 1999. She has not seen her sons in a
decade, and has never met her two grandchildren.

She refuses to leave Myanmar, even during her brief periods of freedom,
fearing she would not be allowed to return.

While her family supported her, she said her sons had suffered
particularly badly.

"They haven't done very well after the breakup of the family, especially
after their father died, because Michael was a very good father," she
said. "Once he was no longer there, things were not as easy as they might
have been."

Little is known about her sons, who largely avoid the media. Kim lives in
England with his family and Alexander resides in the United States.

But she added that she always had their support: "My sons are very good to
me," she said. "They've been very kind and understanding all along."

____________________________________

November 17, BBC News–Burmese Service
Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi 'has foot soldiers' support'

Aung San Suu Kyi says she wants to hold wide-ranging talks on Burma's future.

The BBC Burmese service says it has the first indication of support within
the lower ranks of the military for pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Infantrymen from two Burmese army divisions confirmed reports that several
hundred soldiers travelled to Rangoon to witness her release.

They said they hoped she could talk to their superiors about supply
shortages.

Ms Suu Kyi's release came a week after a military-backed political party
won Burma's first election in 20 years.

The ballot was widely condemned as a sham.

Ms Suu Kyi, 65, was freed after her latest period of house arrest expired
and was not renewed by the military government.

'High hopes'

The extent of support for her in the army is not clear.

A number of soldiers from battalions in Rangoon and Bago divisions and
their families went to Aung San Suu Kyi's house on the 13 November to
greet her on her release.

"We went there to greet her because we believe the hardships the lower
rank and file are facing can be solved if Ms Suu Kyi and the military
commanders work together.

"We have high hopes for Ms Suu Kyi," a soldier told the BBC Burmese service.

It follows reports in September that soldiers in many areas were refusing
to carry out routine tasks in protest at short rations and lack of access
to their pay.

In a series of BBC interviews, soldiers in garrison towns said their
rations had been cut for weeks.

They said commanders had barred access to money they had saved, which is
kept in a central fund.

The Burmese authorities have denied any disquiet in the military.

____________________________________

November 18, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
UN chief and Suu Kyi hold first phone call

New York - United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon held his first
telephone conversation Thursday with Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmar
pro-democracy icon, in which they called for the release of all political
prisoners in the Asian country.

They 'both stressed the need for the Myanmar authorities to release all
remaining political prisoners as a matter of priority.' according a
statement from Ban's office.

Western governments estimate that over 2,000 people are held in Myanmar
prisons on political charges.

The two were said to have held a 'warm and cordial conversation' during
which Ban expressed his respect for Suu Kyi's 'courage and dignity as a
source of inspiration for millions of people around the world.'

Ban said he was committed to working with all players in Myanmar, which is
also known as Burma, 'to build a united, peaceful, democratic and modern
future for their country.'

Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, was released from house arrest last
week, after spending most of the past 20 years in some form of
confinement. Her party won the country's 1990 election, but the results
were disqualified by the ruling military government.

Ban last visited Myanmar in 2009, and was criticized by human rights
groups after he offered positive words about the country's ruling
generals, while failing to gain access to meet with Suu Kyi.

____________________________________

November 18, Democratic Voice of Burma
Final election results announced

The pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has won
Burma’s elections after gaining 76.5 percent of seats across the three
parliaments, according to the country’s supreme election authority.

The results arrive 11 days after Burmese went to the polls for the first
time in two decades, but come as little surprise: the USDP was the
strongest contender by a stretch, and received the tacit support of the
ruling junta, who choreographed election conditions that appeared to
favour the party.

Trailing the USDP, which won 883 of the total 1,154 seats, is the National
Unity Party (NUP), which came runner-up in the last polls. Also holding
close ties to the ruling junta, the NUP won only 63 seats, the China-based
People’s Daily quoted the Election Commission (EC) as saying.

The next four parties all fall within the ‘opposition’ bracket, despite
fears before the polls that any pro-democracy candidates would be
altogether sidelined. However, the total amount of seats won by these
parties makes up only nine percent of the total.

They are, in order: the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), with
57 seats; the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP) with 35
seats, and the National Democratic Force (NDF) and All Mon Region
Democracy Party (AMRDP), each with 16 seats.

The presence of three ethnic-based parties in the top five are a symbolic
victory for Burma’s long-marginalised ethnic groups, although their
potential clout in a post-election will likely be very limited.

The three parliaments – the People’s Parliament, the Nationalities
Parliament and the Regions and States Parliament – are set to convene
within 90 days of the vote. A quarter of the seats for each had already
been reserved for the military prior to the vote.

It is the winner, the USDP, which has been the target of much of the
controversy that dogged the polls. A number of parties are weighing up the
possibility of making a formal complaint to the EC about the USDP, but
that is both expensive and dangerous, with complainants risking jail terms
if unsuccessful.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 18, Financial Times
Suu Kyi release sparks sanctions debate – Tim Johnston

Bangkok – The release of Aung San Suu Kyi, the Burmese opposition leader,
has revived the prospect that the sanctions which have locked western
energy, engineering and tourism companies out of one of the last untapped
economies of Asia may be lifted.

For the past two decades, western companies have been kept out of Burma by
a combination of sanctions, reputational risk and economic mismanagement
by the ruling junta.

Ms Suu Kyi has been a staunch supporter of the sanctions, which were
imposed after the ruling military annulled the result of elections in 1990
that produced a resounding victory for her National League for Democracy.

But she appears to have revisited that position during her recent
seven-year stint under house arrest.

“If people really want sanctions to be lifted, I will consider this,” Ms
Suu Kyi said during her first days of freedom.

With the prospect that sanctions could be lifted, Sean Turnell, a Burma
expert at Australia’s Macquarie University, says “a lot of ears are
pricking up in a lot of boardrooms”.

Western investors have had to sit on the sidelines while companies from
China, India, South Korea and Thailand have been investing heavily,
particularly in energy and natural resources such as timber, rubber and
gems.

According to the government, Burma has 90,000bn cubic feet of gas and
3.3bn barrels of recoverable oil reserves. It has already signed
exploration and production deals with CNOOC and Kogas, the South Korean
state gas company, and also with Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production
and Malaysia’s Petronas.

Chevron and Total have remained in Burma as the sanctions did not apply to
companies that already had operations in the country.

Mr Turnell believes that even if sanctions were to be lifted, the energy
sector would still be dominated by regional players that are willing to
pay a premium for energy security and have more flexible accounting rules.

“The politics in the oil and gas sector is not going to go away,” Mr
Turnell said of a country which ranks second from bottom in Transparency
International’s corruption perceptions index.

For western investors, the prize is likely to be in infrastructure.
Ital-Thai, Thailand’s largest construction company, is already looking for
co-developers for the $8bn first stage of a port and industrial park at
Tavoy on Burma’s Andaman coast. The rest of the country’s decaying roads,
railways and ports also need heavy investment.

But that too will take some time. Much of the funding for any large-scale
infrastructure programmes would likely come from the multi-lateral lending
agencies such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, which have
effectively suspended lending since 1988 when hundreds of students were
killed in pro-democracy demonstrations.

The first barrier to go is likely to be the unofficial boycott on tourism.
Ms Suu Kyi has always been vague on whether she supported a blanket
tourism ban, but until recently she had never corrected the perception
that she was against tourists coming to the country. Win Tin, one of her
closest advisors, recently said that tourists should come to the country
so they could see the reality on the ground.

The US and Canada have broad ranging measures that bar almost all trade
with the country, and the European Union has so-called targeted sanctions
which are designed to isolate individual members of the regime and its
supporters, many of whom have profited from their control of the economy.

Even though most western politicians agree that sanctions have failed to
produce any progress, there has been reluctance to lift them in case the
generals assume their intransigence is being rewarded.

In all likelihood, western governments will defer to Ms Suu Kyi when
considering any change of policy.

“She clearly enjoys a huge amount of international support and a decisive
influence over western policy, in particular on sanctions,” said Thant
Myint-U, a Burma analyst.

“It’s hard to think of any other country in the world, let alone a country
of 60m, where western policy is made on the basis of a single person,
however worthy,” he said.

While Ms Suu Kyi appears to have softened her resistance, she is unlikely
to call for the wholesale repeal of sanctions immediately. Her control
over the process is her most important lever in getting the generals to
negotiate.

General Than Shwe, the country’s leader, said in 2007 that if Ms Suu Kyi
abandoned her support for sanctions he would be willing to meet her, a
move that would have been seen as a significant concession by the
military.

Ms Suu Kyi is therefore likely to demand something more substantial than a
meeting before she yields her trump card. Although she has the ability to
secure an end to the restrictions, it unlikley that she has enough power
to reimpose them if the government reneges on its promises.

Hopes of change must be tempered by past experience, however. The generals
who run Burma have released Ms Suu Kyi before, and little changed.
Although the military is keen to encourage economic development, it is
unlikely to sacrifice their hold on power to achieve it. And, if sanctions
are lifted at all, it will be done in a piecemeal fashion.

____________________________________
HEALTH

November 18, Associated Press
UN: Drug-resistant malaria spreading in Asia

Geneva — The World Health Organization says countries are not doing enough
to detect drug-resistant malaria, which is spreading in Southeast Asia.

The U.N. health agency says there is evidence that type of malaria has now
spread from Thailand's western border with Myanmar to its southeastern
Cambodian border.

WHO says a strain of the mosquito-borne infectious disease resistant to
the most effective antimalarial drugs emerged on the Myanmar border two
years ago.

It warned that resistance to the malaria drug artemisinin could spread to
African countries, just like it did with previous malaria treatments in
the 1960s and 1970s.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 18, Kyodo News
UNHCR wishes Myanmar refugees' successful resettlement in Japan

Tokyo – Visiting U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres met
Thursday in Tokyo with some 25 refugees from Myanmar who recently arrived
in Japan from a camp in Thailand under a U.N.-promoted program, and
expressed his wish that they be successfully resettled.

Guterres, a former Portuguese premier, greeted the refugees belonging to
five ethnic Karen families at the Shinjuku Ward Office and said he
expected them to "finally find a new hope" in Japan.

Shinjuku Ward Mayor Hiroko Nakayama also expressed hope that the refugees,
who began arriving in Japan in late September, will get accustomed to life
in Japan as soon as possible. She also said she expects children of the
families will contribute to Japanese society when they grow up.

"I am so glad to see you today. We will support you together with people
in this community," Nakayama said. The refugees currently live in Shinjuku
Ward and have been receiving a six-month orientation funded by the
Japanese government to learn basic Japanese as well as the country's
customs.

Representing the families, a male refugee thanked the United Nations and
the Japanese government for helping them. The group then sang a Karen song
accompanied by guitar.

The song was meant to encourage those without a homeland and with
separated families to unite together, according to a UNHCR official.

The families are the first batch of 90 refugees from Myanmar the Japanese
government will accept over three years from 2010 under the third-country
resettlement program. After the orientation, they will have to find places
to settle, as well as employment and education opportunities.

The Japanese government decided in December 2008 to accept the 90 refugees
from the Mera refugee camp in northwestern Thailand under a pilot program,
becoming the first Asian country to introduce the scheme.

The refugees have fled the suppression of human rights by Myanmar's
military government. The program is designed to help such people who have
fled but find it hard to settle there or return home.

____________________________________

November 18, Agence France Presse
With Suu Kyi free, China’s Liu is only jailed peace laureate – Pascale
Trouillaud

Beijing – China is now the only country to detain a Nobel Peace laureate
after Myanmar released Aung San Suu Kyi, but experts say the unwonted
limelight will not prod Beijing into freeing dissident writer Liu Xiaobo
anytime soon.

Nobel Committee chairman Thorbjoern Jagland said the Myanmar democracy
icon’s release was an encouragement to all political prisoners including
Liu, but observers do not see it influencing Beijing.

"I can’t imagine that there will be an impact," said Ian Holliday, a
professor of political science at the University of Hong Kong.

"At any rate China will make its own calculations based on its own
stability situation... and it won’t really care what the United States or
others think."

Liu, a 54-year-old writer, is currently serving 11 years in jail for
subversion after he co-authored a 2008 petition calling for political
reform in China. He was awarded the peace prize on October 8, sparking
Beijing’s fury.

The military regime in Myanmar — notorious for its rigidity — released Suu
Kyi from her long period of house arrest at the weekend, an event that
ally China has refused to comment on.

"The release of Aung San Suu Kyi means that China is now the only country
to be keeping a Nobel Peace Prize laureate in prison," said Nicholas
Bequelin, Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch.

"It’s difficult to win over international public opinion with a Nobel
Peace Prize laureate in jail."

Holliday said the international spotlight would make China "uncomfortable"
as the December 10 Nobel award ceremony approached. "But once that is out
of the way, world attention will move on to something else," he added.

But Jean-Philippe Beja, a China expert in Paris-based research centre
CNRS, said Suu Kyi’s release "increases pressure on China."

"If the junta in Myanmar — which has a dreadful international image —
frees its Nobel laureate, why is it that China keeps theirs in prison?"

Beja noted that China’s leaders could release Liu — who will not leave
prison before 2020 if he serves his full sentence — if they wanted.

"They have already freed some prisoners (of conscience) for health
reasons. It’s a political decision."

This was the case for Wang Dan, Han Dongfang and Chen Ziming, figureheads
of the 1989 Tiananmen democracy protests, or Wei Jingsheng and Xu Wenli,
prominent during the "Beijing Spring," a period of political
liberalisation in 1978-1979.

But Liu has already indicated that he will not accept an early release if
it is conditional on him going into exile — unlike Wang, Wei or Xu.

Observers rule out an early release before the prize ceremony in Oslo,
which Beijing is trying to stop Chinese dissidents and foreign diplomats
from attending.

Nobel Institute director Geir Lundestad said Wednesday no members of Liu’s
immediate family would be able to come to Norway to receive his prize.

But symbolic dates such as the Chinese New Year in February or the annual
parliament session in March could provide an opportunity for the
government to make a gesture, experts said.

"Everything will depend on international pressure" and "the power plays
within the regime," said Beja, as the successors of President Hu Jintao
and Premier Wen Jiabao get ready to replace them in 2013.

He added that the severity of Liu’s sentence was not thought to have
received unanimous consent within the leadership, with rising voices in
the Communist Party’s top echelons urging political reform, led by Wen
among others.

Bequelin also stressed that Liu’s early release would depend on
international pressure.

"If it becomes too costly to keep Liu in prison in terms of image, the
government will be inclined to release him," he said.

In 2013 "new leaders will come to power, and not being directly
responsible for the decision to send Liu to prison for 11 years, they
could look to get rid of a problem that they only inherited."

In the meantime, though, Liu has seen his day-to-day life in prison
improve, with cigarettes and better food. "In any case, the notoriety of a
prisoner is a guarantee against potential abuse," Bequelin said.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 18, Kyodo News
U.S. accuses China, N. Korea, Myanmar of repressing religious freedom

Washington – The United States criticized China, North Korea and Myanmar
as well as Iran for restricting religious freedom by persecution and urged
them to improve the situation in a report released Wednesday.

In the "Annual Report on International Religious Freedom," the State
Department designated eight countries -- the four above plus Eritrea,
Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Uzbekistan -- as "countries of particular
concerns," unchanged from the previous year.

"We do not intend to act as a judge of other countries or hold ourselves
up as a perfect example. But the United States cares about religious
freedom," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a news conference.

"We want to see religious freedom available universally," she said.

In the report, which covers the year to June 30, 2010, the department said
that meetings of unregistered religious groups were disrupted and members
of such groups were imprisoned on charges of conducting "illegal religious
activities" in some areas of China.

The Chinese government's strong opposition to Tibetan spiritual leader the
Dalai Lama led to severe restrictions on Tibetan Buddhist religious
practice, the report added.

The annual report noted there were "some positive developments," saying
that Chinese authorities allowed some foreign faith-based groups to
provide social services.

The previous report, released in October 2009, also made similar comments
on improvement in some aspects of religious freedom in China.

The U.S. report also drew attention to the situation in North Korea, where
it says "genuine religious freedom does not exist" despite its
Constitution providing for freedom of religious belief.

"The government severely restricted religious freedom, including organized
religious activities, except that which officially recognized groups
linked to the government supervised tightly," it said.

Quoting defectors' reports, the State Department said the North Korean
government has increased its investigation, repression and persecution of
members of unauthorized religious groups in recent years.

On Myanmar, the report said that the government of the Southeast Asian
nation systematically restricted efforts by Buddhist clergy to promote
human rights and political freedom.

"Many of the Buddhist monks arrested in the violent crackdown that
followed the pro-democracy demonstrations of September 2007...remained in
prison serving long sentences," it said.

On Iran, the department said that Tehran "severely restricted freedom of
religion and reports of government imprisonment, harassment, intimidation
and discrimination based on religious beliefs continued."

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 18, Irrawaddy
Suu Kyi release a junta strategy for sanctions removal? – Saw Yan Naing

Burma's military regime may have released pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi in order to convince countries that have imposed sanctions on the
junta to ease or lift the restrictions and to strengthen economic ties
with its trading partners, according to some Burma analysts.

The analysts said that the regime may now see Suu Kyi as a card they can
play in order to get sanctions lifted. This would include getting Suu Kyi,
who is trusted by and influential among western democracies, to speak on
behalf of sanctions removal.

Thakin Chan Tun, a veteran Rangoon politician, said that sanctions were
put in place because Suu Kyi was taken as a political prisoner. Therefore,
granting her freedom is likely part of a Burmese government strategy to
ease sanctions, he said.

Burma watcher Jeff Kingston, the director of Asian Studies at Temple
University's Japan campus, said that because Suu Kyi's opinion plays a
crucial role in shaping western governments’ engagement [with Burma],
cooperating with Aung San Suu Kyi and embarking on substantive, time-bound
reforms remains the Burmese government’s key to rejoining the
international community and opening the spigots of development assistance.

“What the military does not seem to realize is that Ms. Suu Kyi is its
trump card if it seeks to ease sanctions and tap into all the benefits
that rejoining the international community can provide,” said Kingston.

If the junta does in fact now realize that Suu Kyi is their trump card, as
certain analysts believe, there is some evidence that the junta's strategy
is working, at least at in its initial stages.

When released on Nov. 13, Suu Kyi did not criticize China. Last year, she
also said that she was willing to work with the Burmese generals for the
removal of sanctions if evidence was provided that lifting sanctions would
benefit the Burmese people.

Burma economic specialist Sean Turnell of Macquarie University in
Australia, however, said he thinks that Suu Kyi will not allow herself to
be used by the regime to get sanctions lifted without concessions on the
regime's part.

“Indeed, if she is able to engage in a genuine exchange with them [the
junta], she may just be able to use sanctions as leverage to push for
economic reform,” said Turnell.

Kingston worries that if Suu Kyi gains momentum in trying to strengthen
the rule of law and expose unfairness and corruption in the recent
election, the junta will put her back in jail. If this happens, he said,
it will demonstrate that the new government is just like the old, ensure
that sanctions remain in place and send the entire process back to square
one.

Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese analyst in Chiang Mai, said that sanctions should
be removed as they prevent reconciliation and impact only the welfare of
the people rather than the Burmese generals and their cronies.

Along with other observers, Aung Naing Oo believes that sanctions are a
political tool that do not affect the regime. Even though the West imposed
sanctions on Burma, the generals and their cronies can deal with Hong
Kong, Singapore, Thailand and China, he said.

“Aung San Suu Kyi should use the sanctions as a tool to start the process
of national reconciliation with the military,” Aung Naing Oo said.

“If Suu kyi is talking about sanctions or asking the international
community to remove sanctions, it will be a step closer toward
reconciliation,” he said.

Some observers said that, in addition to helping remove sanctions, Suu
Kyi’s release may decrease the stigma of doing business with the junta.

For example, Italian-Thai Development, a construction company based in
Thailand, early this month entered into a contract worth US $8 billion
with Myanmar Port Authority for an infrastructure project in Tavoy,
Tenasserim Division.

Opposition activists, however, worry that international trade with Burma
will only benefit the military regime, not ordinary people.

____________________________________

November 18, Reuters
ANALYSIS-After freeing Suu Kyi, Myanmar courts investors – Martin Petty
and Jason Szep

Bangkok – Just days after releasing Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from
house arrest, Myanmar's military rulers have a message for investors with
a steely appetite for risk: their isolated country is open for business.

After entering a new era of military-managed democracy following a Nov. 7
election, the secretive junta is courting investment and touting the
potential of a country rich in natural gas, timber and minerals with
urgent infrastructure needs.

Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein gave a rare speech at a regional summit
on Wednesday in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh to promote the former
Burma's business credentials and trumpet plans for an investment-friendly
regulatory framework.

"We encourage participation from the private sector," Thein Sein told
leaders and business executives from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos
packed into a conference room. "We are creating a pro-business environment
in order to work together to get much more business and investment in the
region."

After decades off the investment radar, Myanmar appears ready to open its
doors to foreign businesses, a step analysts say is easier said than done
in a country blighted by decades of economic mismanagement and closed off
by Western sanctions.

Sean Turnell, an expert on Myanmar's economy at Sydney's Macquarie
University, cautions that Myanmar is vastly different from other Asian
frontier markets such as Vietnam, whose communist government opened to
foreign investment in the 1990s.

Since then, multinationals have piled into Vietnam, keen to break ground
on factories and hire some of Asia's cheapest workers. Today, Vietnam
boasts gleaming shopping malls, a $33 billion stock market and a surplus
of foreign-run factories.

"In Vietnam, there may be problems with democracy, but that country has
latched onto the Southeast Asian 'tiger' economy model which is about
identifying external markets and investing in manufacturing with a view to
employing lots of people and getting into the global production chain,"
said Turnell.

"But in Burma, it has been about dividing up the domestic economy rather
than any sort of outward projection. The regime lacks that developmental
mindset. That explains a lot their decisions, which don't make any
economic sense. That is what separates them from Vietnam," he said.

U.S., European, and Australian sanctions, imposed in response to human
rights abuses, have stifled Western investment in the country of 50
million people that just over 50 years ago was the world's biggest rice
exporter and major energy producer.

The embargoes, however, have not stopped the flow of money. China,
Thailand and India are big investors. Official data show China pumped $8.2
billion into Myanmar January to May, including $5 billion in hydropower
and $2.2 billion in oil and gas.

RECALIBRATING SANCTIONS?

But Saturday's release of Suu Kyi may offer a chance to recalibrate those
sanctions, which critics say have hurt ordinary people by allowing the
junta to monopolise the economy.

Some diplomats expect the pro-democracy leader to play a pivotal role in
pushing for a relaxing of embargoes. She hinted at such a day after her
release. "If people really want sanctions to be lifted, I will consider
this," she told reporters.

The military junta rarely comments on sanctions. But diplomats in Myanmar
say growing dependence on China is a concern for the generals, who also
want an end to arms embargoes that limit their access to modern weapons
technology, say analysts.

Washington is wasting no time and said on Monday it was ready to engage
with the new government, but made no mention of sanctions.

The recently formed Myanmar Business Council handed out glossy pamphlets
this week to investors in a ballroom of the Cambodiana Hotel after its
director delivered a PowerPoint presentation on investment opportunities
in Myanmar.

"After 50 years of isolation, Myanmar's doors have been unlocked" read one
pamphlet. "Myanmar is not a 'maybe market', it will be a 'must have'
market."

"Unfavourable" Western sanctions offer opportunities for its closest
neighbours, the Council added, encouraging Thai investors to use the baht
currency instead of dollars. It said Myanmar was "just like Thailand 20
years ago", offering tax breaks.

But analysts, diplomats and executives with experience in Myanmar identify
a host of risks for those trying to get in on the ground floor:
corruption, fiscal mismanagement, poor infrastructure, cronyism, a
rudimentary banking system, an unclear regulatory framework and opaque
foreign investment laws.

"The major problem is political uncertainty. We never know what those
generals want and if they will change their mind. It's very risky," said a
trader at a leading Thai sugar miller who declined to be identified.

This year, the junta set up the Myanmar Sugarcane Enterprise, a think
tank, ahead of a free-trade zone in the Association of South East Asian
Nations, whose newest members -- Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar --
must eliminate tariffs by 2015.

Asked how Myanmar is preparing for competition, Yi Yi Mon, the
organisation's general manger, told Reuters: "We are planning to increase
sugar production." But she declined to elaborate.

While neighbouring Thailand is the world's biggest sugar exporter,
producing about 7 million tonnes a year, Myanmar produces just 800,000
tonnes from 6 major millers mostly run or held by the military. Unlike
nearby Cambodia and Laos, it has done little to attract foreign
investment.

Some analysts see hints of change. The government sold off more than 300
state assets in the last year in areas like shipping, aviation, banking
and real estate.

Although the deals are likely to favour businessmen close to the regime,
they could also generate interest among U.S. and European investors
willing to take a hit on their reputation to pursue gains in a country
long seen as an international pariah because of its poor human rights
record.

(Additional reporting by Prak Chan Thul in Phnom Penh and Apornrath
Phoonphongphiphat in Bangkok. Editing by Andrew Marshall)

____________________________________

November 18, CNN
A new role for Aung San Suu Kyi? – Justin Wintle

What happened in Yangon's University Avenue as the light began to fade
last Saturday took many serious Myanmar watchers by surprise.

Not only was Aung San Suu Kyi released from house arrest at the very point
the military regime's containment order expired, but within a very short
space of time some tens of thousands of her supporters had gathered at her
gates, among them many young people who had had no exposure to her before.

Any idea that Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate, has been successfully
sidelined in Burmese politics by her uniformed oppressors evaporated. Even
so, harping on the occasion as a "Mandela moment." the international media
provided a distorted picture.

With some deft camera work and biased reporting it would be perfectly
possible to sell a lie, say, that everyone in the United Kingdom is a
Manchester United football fan. Not true, of course, just as any
suggestion that the whole of the Burmese people, except for the senior
military, is squarely behind Aung San Suu Kyi would be a
misrepresentation. There are those doing quite nicely under the regime,
thank you very much, there are ethnic minority members whose principal
dream is autonomy, not national democracy, and there are those with little
or no interest in politics.

Ms. Suu Kyi is not about to assume the reins of government. Even so, it
has become obvious that, politically, Aung San Suu Kyi does still command
perhaps a greater following inside Myanmar than any other person or
entity, whatever the outcome of the sham elections conducted a week
earlier.

So the question is, what will she do with such momentum behind her?

The only certainty is she must tread carefully. While rebuilding her badly
fractured party, the National League for Democracy, may seem a priority,
how she goes about it could decide whether or not she remains at liberty.

Any idea that the State Peace and Development Council (the military
junta's formal title) is running out of steam is misbegotten. Senior
General Than Shwe and his colleagues have, over the last few years,
expended enormous energy shoring up their position -- promulgating a new
constitution and choreographing the first elections in 20 years as well as
building themselves a brand new and secure capital at Naypyidaw.

The generals and the generals alone hold all the actual power. Should Aung
San Suu Kyi resume where she left off in 2003 and campaign against the
regime, addressing mass rallies up and down the country, then the
generals' patience will snap, and the gates of her lakeside villa will
once again be locked. Or something worse could occur.

Conversely, if Aung San Suu Kyi, once she has recuperated her physical
strength, does not return to the hustings, then that would seem to some
like moral cowardice, as she would be the first to admit.

There is perhaps another way. To remain at liberty and to stand any chance
of effecting real change within Myanmar (something she has singularly
failed to do thus far), Aung San Suu Kyi might be well advised to step
back from the cut-and-thrust of daily politics and begin taking on the
role of eminence grise, for which her personality is well suited.

Let others rebuild the NLD (if such is to be permitted) while she operates
as an intermediary between all the parties concerned, including the
"international community" and the junta itself.

Critics of this view will say that while Suu Kyi has always sought
dialogue with the generals, they have never wanted to talk to her. But I
suspect there may have been a meaningful sea change.

Everything revolves around the trade sanctions imposed on Myanmar by the
United States and the European Union (including Britain, the former
colonial power). Sanctions have failed, driving the junta into the arms of
China. The generals, however, would rather be beholden to no one at all,
East or West, and they will be aware that Aung San Suu Kyi has revised her
opinions, to the chagrin of some activists.

Whereas when sanctions were introduced in the 1990s she countenanced them,
now it seems, from recent statements she has made, she has swung to the
view that sanctions hurt the ordinary people of Myanmar far more than
their rulers.

Could it be that the room for maneuvering improbably extended to Suu Kyi
at the present time is tied to this? If anyone could persuade the West to
drop sanctions, then that person is Aung San Suu Kyi.

And, on the premise that politics follow economics, that would be good
news indeed. A more prosperous Myanmar achieved through inward investment
and all the values that come with that could also be a Myanmar where
actual social and political change finally becomes a possibility.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Justin Wintle.

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

November 18, Mizzima News
Dialogue with The Lady, Aung San Suu Kyi – Sein Win

(This interview is translated from Burmese.)

Chiang Mai – Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was released
from seven year’s house arrest on November 13. Mizzima’s managing editor
Sein Win spoke to her by phone four days later to receive her comments on
India’s policy on Burma, using the internet and social weblogs, ethnic
issues, the intrusion of John Yettaw, youth issues and women’s rights.

Firstly, I’d like to ask you about India. What do you think Indian people
can do for Burmese people and the establishment of democracy in Burma?

I think Indian citizens should learn more about Burma. Burma and India
closely co-operated in fighting for independence. But currently, I think
Indian citizens don’t know too much about Burma. Trying to know about
Burma would clearly be the first step.

How can India’s government and parliament help Burma? What would you like
to say?

This question is related to the previous one. India is a democratic
country, so, as the citizens of a democratic country, if Indian people are
active in supporting the establishment of democracy in Burma, India’s
government will not ignore Burma. So, I want to say that Indian citizens
should clearly learn more about Burma’s democracy movement as a first
step. They should provide more support.

India says Burma is influenced by China. Another thing is that some say
Burma should take steps towards democracy on the basis of a gradual
evolution. What is your opinion regarding these issues?

This way of thinking merely concerns the relationship between China and
India, not Burma’s democracy. So, we need to differentiate between the
people who are thinking about the Sino-Indian relationship and the people
who are seeking to establish democracy in Burma. Regarding the idea that
Burma should approach democracy on the basis of gradual evolution, that’s
an issue that must be decided only by us, the Burmese people.

It is said that civil war has raged in Burma for more than 60 years. And
some Western governments also said Burma’s movement towards democracy
should be carried out on the basis of gradual evolution. What are your
thoughts on these stances?

People need to discuss that hypothesis using concrete facts. They say
Burma should take gradual steps towards democracy because of continuing
ethnic conflicts. On the other hand, we can say the reverse 
 that the
continuing ethnic conflicts are the result of the lack of genuine
democracy in Burma. So, it depends on the person. But, what we should
think is how the current situations affect the people and what should we
do for the sake of the people.

By the way, how is your health?

I’m healthy but I’m very busy. I don’t have enough time even to take a
breath.

I heard you and your son spoke on the phone. Did he obtain a visa to enter
Burma?

The authorities have not told him whether they will issue a visa or not.
So all we can do is wait.

As a mother out of contact with her sons, how do you cope with that
situation?

There are many people whose situations are worse than ours. For my sons,
they can live in a country that has human rights. They don’t need to worry
about the cost of living. Some children don’t have enough food. Some
children are homeless. Their parents cannot help them. So I don’t have the
heart to say that my situation is stressful.

Many people are deeply concerned for your safety. Do you think someone may
harm you?

In the past I was harmed so there is no guarantee that they will not harm
me. But I should not be worried sick about it. I should not act under the
feeling of insecurity. Anyway, both young people and old people take care
of me. They want to protect me as much as they can. They are trying too
hard to ensure my safety.

There are many rumours with regard to John Yettaw’s intrusion. What do you
think about this? Was it trick of the junta?

I don’t know. I have no idea. I don’t want to have any bias 
 I don’t
think it was a plan of the junta, but I can’t guarantee that 100 per cent.
All in all, I don’t suspect junta involvement.

Many young people came to listen to your speech. What do you want to tell
them and women and what do you want to do for them?

I want them to utilise that collective strength effectively. I want them
to use those strengths both for the country and for their own sake,
correctly and systematically. I want to help them to keep the right
balance between promoting their own welfare and promoting the welfare of
the nation.

Does ‘using strength correctly’ mean they should participate in politics?

No, I don’t mean that. I just want their strength not to be wasted. If
they use their strength just for their own sake, it will not be effective
for them in the long run as no one can enjoy a good life in an unpleasant
environment. And I think social affairs and politics cannot be separated
and every citizen should have high spirits. When I was a child, I was
taught general maxims. People can be trained to have high moral values.

In recent days, fighting between the junta and ethnic armed groups broke
out. What are your thoughts over those tensions? How should we deal with
ethnic unrest?

As I said earlier, we don’t have the custom to solve political problems by
engaging in constructive political dialogue or by using non-violent
methods. I want our people to develop that custom. That’s why I choose to
use the principle of non-violence. We must create a custom in which we
solve the problems through political dialogue and non-violence. That’s not
easy. It’ll be difficult sometimes. So, we must try to establish that
custom to end the conflicts.

Today [Tuesday], we’ve heard you’ve proposed a second Panglong Conference
through the use of modern communications technology. You’ve also expressed
a wish to use Twitter. I’m sure our readers are very interested when
you’ll be online.

I’ve got an application form to apply for internet installation. But one
of the rules 
 to obtain a permit to gain internet access says I must not
be involved in politics. Nevertheless, I’ll apply for the permit, but I’ll
fill in the form saying that I’ll participate in politics. I cannot obey
that rule. But I will apply for the permit and fill in the correct
information on the form.

If you are denied internet use, what alternatives will you seek?

We must seek alternatives. That’s why I said we must find alternatives
suited to the 21st Century. I heard about the second Panglong Conference
on the radio when I was detained under house arrest. Since that time, I
thought we should apply modern technology to overcome the difficulties.
Our young technicians will find ways. You also can offer us advice.

You’ve said mobile phones are a novelty for you. How about the internet?

I have never used the internet but I’m computer literate 
 [it] will not
be difficult.

Do you have any immediate plans to go to ethnic minority areas to meet them?

No, I don’t have such plans at present because I still have many things to
do in Rangoon.

What is your attitude to the political parties that contested in the
recent election, and if they would like to form an alliance with the NLD?

I’ve said since the day I was released that we want the people to create a
democratic network for themselves. So, all must have many strong allies.
Even if we cannot form alliance with everyone, we will form an alliance
with anyone who has the same objectives as us. As I said earlier, we are
ready to co-operate with any 
 of the 37 contending political parties that
really have the same objectives and want to work for democracy.

What would you like to say to Mizzima reporters?

The roles of journalists are very important 
 Journalists can influence
the country. So I want journalists to use that influence for the welfare
of the people. Some journalists are trying to secure scoops and get
dramatic news. That’s also fine, but they also need to do so for the
welfare of the nation. I think I said after I was released from house
arrest that I’d found that communications technology was playing a very
important role in this era. Most people have mobile phones. So, please
don’t forget that information is very important and journalists are in
powerful positions. I want to request that all journalists do good things
for the people 
 with spiritual awareness.