BurmaNet News, November 23, 2010

[Editor]

November 23, 2010 Issue #4090

INSIDE BURMA
NY Times: Myanmar’s leading dissident reunites with youngest son
NLM: “Advance voting and electoral procedures”
Mizzima: Ex-UDP chairman seeks to team up with Suu Kyi
Mizzima: Inquiry opens into soldier’s alleged rape of villager
Irrawaddy: Warnings silence opposition candidates
Kaladan: Buthidaung villagers targeted for forced labour

ON THE BORDER
DVB: Burma army threatens all-out assault
Kaowao: Security concerns rise after Three Pagodas Pass border siege

BUSINESS / TRADE
The Nation: Tavoy mega-port will be a major challenge for Ital-Thai
Development
Xinhua: 260 State-owned Fuel Filling Stations Privatized in Myanmar
Myanmar Times: Analysts anticipate slow but steady economic reform

OPINION / OTHER
Foreign Affairs: Burma's Stubborn State: How to Curtail the Military Junta
- Michael Green


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 23, New York Times
Myanmar’s Leading Dissident Reunites With Youngest Son – Seth Mydans

Phnom Penh, Cambodia — Myanmar’s leading dissident, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,
was reunited with her youngest son on Tuesday after a decade-long
separation during which she said she never felt that they had been apart.

“I am very happy,” she said in a telephone interview after meeting her
son, Kim Aris, 33, at the airport, and she thanked the military junta for
giving him a visa after repeated refusals.

But she said, “I don’t feel that I’ve been apart from him for so many
years. I never felt apart from him.”

Nevertheless, only a few days after the exuberance of her release, she
sounded weary, perfunctory and even curt during the interview, saying, “I
don’t want to talk about it,” when pressed about her feelings about her
reunion with her son.

The decision to grant him a visa was a symbolic gesture of leniency by the
junta, which released Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi after her term of house arrest
ended 10 days ago. She has been allowed to meet with supporters and give
interviews.

The reunion on Tuesday underlined the personal toll of the political
campaign Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi has waged during the past two decades.

During that period she was detained for 15 years and only rarely allowed
visitors or communication with the outside world.

She has always been free to leave Myanmar, according to her lawyers, but
chose to stay for fear of being denied re-entry.

“I don’t believe in looking at it as a sacrifice,” she said of her
decision to embrace her fate as a political martyr. “It’s a choice. It’s a
choice I made.”

Now that she is free, she said, she intends to lead what she calls a
nonviolent revolution, rather than an incremental evolution.

She said her use of the term “revolution” was justified because, “I think
of evolution as imperceptible change, very, very slowly, and I think of
revolution as significant change. I say this because we are in need of
significant change.”

The change she had in mind, she said, was “a change for the better from
the point of view of human rights and democratic institutions.”

But she said that unlike some of her supporters in the West, she did not
see regime change as a goal. “What we want is value change,” she said.
“Regime change can be temporary, but value change is a long-term business.
We want the values in our country to be changed. We want a sound
foundation for change.

“Even if there’s regime change, if these basic values have not changed,
then one regime change can lead to another regime change and so on and so
on.”

She said she did not endorse moves among her supporters overseas to try to
bring the junta leaders into international court for crimes against
humanity.

“I’ve never said I want them to be brought into the international court,”
she said. “I don’t think there is any solid reason for the generals to
fear for their safety. We are not after them personally. I certainly do
not wish them ill.”

As for her own ambitions, she said, “I’m not very much concerned whether I
personally come to power, but I am concerned about the power of the
people.” The people of Myanmar, whose aspirations and whose popular
uprisings have been crushed over the years, must understand that real
power is in their hands, she said.

To this end, she said she would continue to work through her party, the
National League for Democracy, although the government banned it as a
political party when it declined to take part in a parliamentary election
this month.

For the moment, she said, she is busy in Yangon, the main city of Myanmar,
but she did not rule out a resumption of the trips she made around the
country during her last one-year period of freedom, in 2003.

“One should be free to travel around one’s country as one chooses,” she said.

Her last period of freedom ended when a government-backed mob attacked her
convoy, killing dozens of people and forcing her to flee for safety.

Asked if she might again be putting her supporters at risk in public
gatherings, she said, “They don’t have any reason to feel nervous just
because they come out to greet me.”

But she said, “In any society where the rule of law is not firmly
established and basic human rights are not respected, there’s always a
risk.”

Asked about the personal animus the junta’s leader, Senior Gen. Than Shwe,
is said to feel for her, and what she thinks of him, she said, “I don’t
think we know each other well enough to care or not care for each other.”

Television footage on Tuesday morning from the airport in Yangon showed
Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi and her son in a brief embrace before walking out of
the terminal together.

One of the first things he did after greeting his mother was to show her a
red tattoo bearing the symbol of her party, which won an election in 1990
but was not allowed by the military to take power.

Earlier this month, the junta held its first election since then,
carefully engineered to produce a victory for its favored party, creating
a new Parliament that analysts say will provide a civilian face to
continued military rule.

In 1991, a year after the previous election, Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi was
awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, which was accepted for her in Oslo by her
older son, Alexander Aris. Her late husband, Michael Aris, raised their
two children in Britain. He was unable to visit with his wife before his
death a decade ago at the age of 53, and she refused to leave the country
to see him for fear that she would not be allowed to return to resume her
house arrest.

Asked in the interview about the culture shock of emerging from the
sensory deprivation of house arrest to the tumult that surrounds her now,
she said, “It’s a bit hectic, but it will calm down in a few weeks.”

Thomas Fuller contributed reporting from Bangkok.

____________________________________

November 20, New Light of Myanmar
Article by a law analyst: “Advance voting and electoral procedures”

The multiparty democracy general elections have successfully been held.
The voters have elected their representatives freely of their own accord.
The election commission and subcommissions at various levels have carried
out election processes in line with the election laws, rules and
procedures and are announcing the number of votes got by an individual
Hluttaw representative.

It is however learnt that some political parties and foreign media are
releasing their statements levelling accusations that, there has been
disagreement among the public over the election results due to the advance
votes.

The advance vote means the subcommission concerned grants permission for
casting advance ballots according to the procedures in order that the
people cannot lose the voting right if they are unable to go the polling
station to vote by themselves although they are in their own constituency
on the election day, or if a voter is outside his or her own constituency
for various reasons.

The right to cast an advance vote emerged not in the 2010 elections. It
was prescribed in the 1948 parliamentary election laws and rules enacted
in accord with. Article 77 of the 1947 constitution of the Union of
Myanmar. The advance voting right for servicemen and their families was
prescribed in Rule 70-H; for diplomats and those who are abroad for
scholarship programmes in Rule 70-R; and those who are detained or serving
prison terms for their criminal charges in Rule-U. Similarly, the
procedures for advance voting were prescribed Sub-articles (16) & (17) of
Article 8 of the first Pyithu Hluttaw and People's Council Election Law in
1973. And the procedures for casting advance ballots were prescribed in
Rules 45, 46, 47, 48 and 49. Again, the provisions for casting advance
votes were prescribed in Section-A Sub-section 14 of Article 16 and
Section-A Sub-sections 8 & 9 of Article 18 of the Pyithu Hluttaw and
People's Council Election Law in 1976 promulgated in accord with Article
186 of the 1974 constitution.

There were instances of casting advance votes and the provisions
prescribed in Articles 38 & 39 and Rules 56 and 60-68 of the 1989 Pyithu
Hluttaw Election Law. It has been learnt that in many countries practising
democracy, procedures for direct voting as well as advance voting for
those outside the constituency are being followed in the elections held
for choosing people's representatives.

Moreover, procedures for casting advance ballots were stated in the 2010
Hluttaw Election Law and Rules enacted in accordance with Article 397 of
the 2008 constitution. There are two kinds of advance voting with an
advance ballot paper – one isarranged by the township subcommission
concerned and the other by the ward or village-tract subcommission
concerned.

The township subcommission concerned or the ward or village-tract
subcommission concerned has to make arrangements for those wishing to cast
advance votes in line with the laws and rules. The voters can cast their
ballots in advance according to the prescribed procedures only when the
issue of advance voting is in conformity with the provisions of the
election laws and rules. Anyone cannot encourage, persuade or instruct a
voter to cast an advance ballot. The voter himself cannot demand for
casting an advance ballot either, if he is not met with the requirements.

The right of voting with an advance ballot paper is entrusted so that
every citizen can enjoy their right freely. In so doing it is also
prescribed to make atonement if it found against the law.

Since the voters have the right to cast their advance ballots for the
Hluttaw candidate they like, any candidate can get advance votes All the
Hluttaw candidates have the right to enjoy the results of advance votes.
All in all, it is therefore learned that the advance votes have come from
the hearts and minds of the public voters, who cast their advance ballots
by themselves in accord with the law as they were unable to go to the
polling station for various reasons.

Translation: ST
____________________________________

November 23, Mizzima
Ex-UDP chairman seeks to team up with Suu Kyi - Kyaw Kha

Chiang Mai – Former Union Democratic Party chairman Thein Htay has
expressed a desire to work for the benefit of the people “under the
leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi”.

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi visits a community home for people
living with HIV in South Dagon Township, Rangoon, on November 17, 2010.
She told the crowd she would do many things for the country and that
people needed to co-operate with her. Ex-Union Democratic Party chairman
Thein Htay has expressed a desire to be one of those people. Photo:
Mizzima
He said he would establish a “Work Committee for the Masses” with
supporters and democratic forces based in Pegu Division, and that it would
co-operate with Suu Kyi.

Two top leaders have resigned from UDP in the past three months. Phyo Min
Thein stepped down on August 5, was relieved by vice-chairman Thein Htay,
who in turn, quit on November 16.

The latter said that he had tendered his resignation as he no longer
believed the “Third Force” trend could bring any public benefit through
the new parliaments.

“I have no differences with my party. I resigned from the party to stand
firmly on my own beliefs,” Thein Htay told Mizzima. “When I reviewed the
recent general election, I found that the people do not accept the Union
Solidarity and Development Party at all because of its brazen vote-rigging

 [at its desire to win] by all possible means.”

“We can’t establish a third force by contesting in the election because
there are only two sides in this battle, Daw Suu [Aung San Suu Kyi] versus
the government [military regime]. So democratic parties and forces must
unite and co-operate under the leadership of Daw Suu,” he added.

The UDP contested unsuccessfully in three constituencies. Central
committee members Myint Sein and Wunna Soe have also resigned but general
secretary Thein Tin Aung told Mizzima he would continue to stand with the
party.

____________________________________

November 24, Mizzima
Inquiry opens into soldier’s alleged rape of villager, 19 – Ko Wild

Chiang Mai – An investigation began yesterday into a soldier’s alleged
rape of a 19-year-old while she was tending cattle near her home in the
central Burmese division of Magway.

A soldier takes a break by leaning against his Burmese Army issue
umbrella, in central Burma last month. A military investigation began
yesterday, November 23, 2010, into a soldier’s alleged rape of a
19-year-old woman while she was tending cattle near her home in the
central Burmese division of Magway. Photo: Mizzima
Proceedings against Private Maung Maung Che of Infantry Battalion 77 (IB
77) were being held inside the military unit’s compound in Yenangyaung
Township, where the rape victim’s sister said she and her parents and
three witnesses were summoned to testify in the case.

She said however that the case title atop the summons made no mention of
“rape” but said the private was being charged with: “Violation of military
discipline and causing a public disturbance while drunk”.

The prosecution accused Maung Maung Che of committing rape against the
19-year-old woman as she was tending a grazing herd in a field just 50
yards from her home.

Her five-year-old niece raised the alarm upon hearing the young woman’s
cries for help and villagers working nearby came to rescue her, the
prosecutor said. They then captured the soldier and took him to the police
station in Nyaunghla ward.

Later on the same day, IB 77 commander Lieutenant Colonel Tin Maung Oo
retrieved Maung Maung Che from the police cells, police corporal Tin Tun,
who was on duty, confirmed. Burmese police have no jurisdiction over cases
related to military units.

Mizzima spoke by phone to a Magway District Hospital health official, who
said that it had issued to the inquiry a certificate that the victim had
undergone a medical examination, but declined to give further details.

IB 77 officers had offered the family of young woman a cash settlement but
the family rejected the offer, a relative said.

A Yenangyaung resident told Mizzima that a police sub-inspector – injured
during the last water festival in a brawl between soldiers of the same
battalion and town police – was unable to seek redress because police were
unable to sue members of the military.
____________________________________

November 23, Irrawaddy
Warnings Silence Opposition Candidates – Lawi Weng

Many of the candidates who complained of widespread vote-rigging in
Burma's Nov. 7 election appear to have fallen silent on the issue since
the country's Union Election Commission (EC) warned them last week that
they could face severe penalties for questioning the outcome of the vote.

On Nov. 17, the EC told candidates who planned to challenge the election
results because of alleged irregularities that they could be fined 300,000
kyat (US $340) and sentenced to three years in prison if their accusations
are deemed to be unfounded.

Two days later, a group of candidates from three different parties—the
Union Democratic Party (UDP), the National Democratic Force and the New
Era People's Party—as well as several independent candidates held a press
conference in Pegu to highlight cheating in the vote.

However, only 10 candidates attended the press conference, while around 30
others stayed away because of fears of punishment by the authorities.

“They are threatening our parties not to say anything about their unfair
voting system, but we will continue to tell voters about how the EC has
taken unfair votes,” said UDP Chairman Thein Htay, one of the participants
in the press conference.

“If we keep quiet, the people will suffer and no free and fair system will
emerge in this country,” he added.

Burma's state-run media has also moved to silence domestic critics of the
election, which has been widely denounced as a sham by most Western
countries because of the absence of independent observers.

On the same day that the EC issued its warning to candidates who expressed
a desire to challenge the vote results, the official press accused some
political parties of making fraudulent complaints about the polls or
reporting unfounded allegations to overseas media.

However, despite growing pressure on the opposition to avoid any public
discussion of alleged vote-fixing, some parties continue to air their
grievances.

“They don't want us to talk to the [foreign] media, but if we stop talking
about this, only they [the regime] will benefit from this election,” said
Nai Ngwe Thein, the chairman of All Mon Regions Democracy Party (AMDP), on
Monday.

He added, however, that his party does not have enough money to pay the
one million kyat ($1,136) that it would cost to legally contest the
election results, saying that all 34 of the AMDP's candidates have
exhausted their campaign funds. He said that each of the party's
candidates spent at least 1.3 million kyat ($1,477) on the election,
including the 500,000 kyat ($568) registration fee.

Before the election, many ethnic party candidates predicted that they
would win the majority of votes in their states. Party leaders also
believed that the election would be free and fair, despite the decision of
the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to
boycott the election because of stringent election laws that heavily
favored the junta-backed the Union Solidarity and Development Party
(USDP).

China's official Xinhua news agency, citing the EC's final figures,
reported that the USDP won 76.5 percent of the seats in the election.

“I think they planned before the election which seats they would give to
the ethnic party candidates and which they would take for themselves,”
said Nai Ngwe Thein. “Whenever they didn't get the seats they wanted, they
just used advance votes to beat the opposition candidates.”

Other parties also complained that advance votes were used to prevent
opposition candidates from winning in constituencies where they were
clearly leading.

“The USDP claimed nearly 80 percent of the seats and the pro-democracy
parties won only a few seats because of the advance votes,” said Hlung Ce,
the chairman of the Chin Progressive Party. “It was very unfair. It was
meaningless to hold the election.”

Now that the opposition parties have been denied any legal recourse to
challenge the election outcome, some said they hope to work together with
NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi to advance the cause of democracy in Burma.
____________________________________

November 23, Kaladan Press News
Buthidaung villagers targeted for forced labour

Buthidaung, Arakan State - Villagers have been made to work in the army
cantonment as retaliation for their support to the opposition political
party in the November 7 elections, said a local businessman.

Ten days after the general election, instances of forced labour have been
rising in northern Buthidaung, with local residents saying that at least
50 villagers are required to work without pay every day at the No 564 army
cantonment.

The work is said to include clearing brush, digging trenches and other
tasks, and Kyi Nute Thee village, which strongly supported the National
Democratic Party for Development, has been specifically targeted for
forced labour, said a resident.

Workers are forced to toil from 6 am till sunset and arrange for their own
food.

Families in the village have begun to suffer as their principal workers
have been drafted for forced labour, the resident said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 23, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma army threatens all-out assault – Naw Noreen

Five army battalions are ready and waiting in eastern Burma after the
ruling junta yesterday set a deadline for a renegade Karen commander to
lay down his arms.

The breakaway faction of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) has
been given until 31 December to either surrender their weapons or
transform into a government-controlled border militia.

“We will be attacked by five army battalions if we fail to comply,” Na
Kham Mwe, head of the group’s 5th Brigade, told DVB. “If they will attack
us then we’ll have to fight back, but we will only target [junta]
officials.”

A meeting was held yesteday in Myawaddy between the Burmese army’s Bureau
of Special Operations-4 commander, Thet Naing Win, and senior members of
the newly-transformed Border Guard Force (BGF), comprised of former
members of the DKBA.

“They said they would welcome peace and that we would have to surrender
arms if we refuse the BGF transformation,” said Na Kham Mwe. “They
promised to give me everything I ask for.”

He added that his troops, thought to number close to 1000, “don’t even
dream about surrendering arms but would like to cooperate with the
[Burmese] army for development work”.

The DKBA last week cemented an alliance with their former foes, the Karen
National Liberation Army (KNLA), whom they split from in 1994 when the
DKBA allied with the junta.

Colonel Ner Dha Mya, head of the KNLA’s 6th Brigade, said that the two
groups had “put the past behind” them and would now unite in their battle
for autonomy from the Burmese government, which has pledged to rout ethnic
armies who refuse the transformation.

Conflict in Karen state, which borders Thailand to the east, has stretched
over more than 60 years and caused the displacement of hundreds of
thousands of people. Critics accuse of junta of an attempted
‘Burmanisation’ of the country where its 135 ethnic minority groups are
altogether sidelined.

____________________________________


November 22, Kaowao News
Security concerns rise after Three Pagodas Pass border siege

Three Pagodas Pass border town, live in fear of fresh conflict between the
Burmese Army and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA).

Three-Pagodas-Pass-Border“Some villagers are still in Thailand and I am
preparing to flee there as well,” said Ms. Mi Dut from the Three Pagodas
Pass border town.

On November 8, a day after the first general election in 20 years in
Burma, the DKBA launched an offensive against the Burmese soldiers
stationed in the town and burnt down government buildings including the
Special Branch (SB), Agriculture and Forestry Department buildings. The
villagers started to return to the area on November 12 when the DKBA
retreated three days later.

Nai Win, a town resident says the residents are expecting further conflict
and are living in fear after the arrival of government troops in the
remote border town. Three hundred troops from three battalions under the
command of the Front Line Commander Colonel Thein Zaw are now taking up
position to reinforce forces in the area with another on patrol between
Anan Kwin and the Three Pagodas Pass.

Karen villagers from Aplon, Ta-Dein and Thet-Kae, situated along the
border area, have also left their homes to avoid being forced into
portering and used as human shields by the Burmese Army, a Karen villager
told a Kaowao reporter.

According to a local source from Sangkhalburi, District Chief Chamra
Kongnoi ordered the refugees to return across the border after the Thai
authorities were sure that the area was secure when the Burmese
authorities reopened the border.

“We do not want to go but the Burmese and the Thai authorities insisted
that we return - if we fail to do so they (Burmese Army) will burn down
our homes if they are not occupied soon,” said Mi Ngwe from the Burma side
of the border town.

About one thousand refugees are still sheltered at the Japanese Well
(Palaing Japan) village under the control of the New Mon State Party.

Tension between the ethnic groups and the Burmese junta had been rising
after the government’s Border Guard Force ultimatum. The Burmese
government wanted the ethnic armies to surrender their arms and join the
Burmese Army to act as border security personnel. Some of the DKBA
soldiers roundly rejected the offer and broke away from their main group
ahead of the country’s first general election.

According to a military observer Nai Ong, who lives in Sangkhlaburi, the
Burmese Army may launch a military offensive against the DKBA and KNU
forces in the area.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 22, The Nation
Tavoy mega-port will be a major challenge for Ital-Thai Development -
Sasithorn Ongdee,
Watcharapong Thongrung

The deepsea port planned for Tavoy on Burma's southern coast will be a
major challenge for Thailand's largest construction firm Italian-Thai
Development, which is seeking partners for the project amid a myriad of
political and other concerns.

The initial stage of the mega-investment project is worth US$8.6-billion
(Bt254 billion).

Marine Department officials at the Ministry of Transport have insisted
that another port project at Pak Bara in Satun be maintained at a size of
800,000 tonnes of cargo a year.

A Cabinet meeting on June 29 ordered the ministry to review the size of
Pak Bara for multi-purpose uses or tourism. At this scale, it would cost
around Bt12 billion.

Tawalyarat Onsira, head of the Marine Department said last week the Office
of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP) was now studying the
feasibility of the Tavoy deepsea port (known as Dawei in Burma) and if it
should to be linked with trade, investment and transport in Thailand.

The OTP had also asked for comment on guidelines on downsizing the Pak
Bara Port to a multi-purpose or tourism port following the Cabinet order
in June.

He said Thailand still needed its own deep-sea port on the Andaman coast
as a gateway to link trade and investment between southern China and in
India and Europe.

This included shipping goods to and from Thailand's lower South,
especially para rubber, which makes up 70-80 per cent of total exports
from the South.

"If you focus on the Tavoy deepsea port [solely], it is like borrowing
another person's nose. More important is that the port's locationis far
from many main international shipping routes, compared to Pak Bara port,"
Tawalyarat said.

However, the future of Pak Bara port depended upon the government.

Plans for Pak Bara deepsea port were for it to handle three 50,000
deadweight-tonne (DWT) vessels or two 70,000 DWT vessels at the same time.

For the Tavoy deepsea port, its tentative infrastructure costs were
divided into four items - the deepsea port for $1.37 billion,
infrastructure for the industrial estate ($2.41 bn), a trans-border
corridor ($3.39 bn), associated works including business building, public
areas, commercial complex and Burmese authorities' centre for $1.37 bn.

Construction will commence in January on the deepsea port as well as roads
linking public utilities and facilities in the industrial zone's first
phase, according to a presentation by the Federation of Thai Industries
(FTI) last month. The port and industrial zone will take about five years
to build.

The size of Tavoy will be much bigger than Laem Chabang and Map Ta Phut
put together. It is divided into Zone A, the port and heavy industry, Zone
B petroleum and chemical complex, Zone C upstream and downstream
petrochemical complex, Zone D, medium industry, Zone E light industry and
Zone F will be a town with homes, public facilities and a commercial
complex.

____________________________________

November 23, Xinhua
260 State-owned Fuel Filling Stations Privatized in Myanmar

A total of 260 state-owned fuel filling stations out of 272 throughout
Myanmar have been privatized as of June this year, the local Weekly Eleven
News reported Tuesday.

A total of 260 state-owned fuel filling stations out of 272 throughout
Myanmar have been privatized as of June this year, the local Weekly Eleven
News reported Tuesday.

These stations are scattered in Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyawaddy, Bago,
Magway, Sagaing, Tanintharyi regions, Mon, Shan, Kachin, Rakhine, Kayin
and Chin states.

Meanwhile, to facilitate running the privatized undertakings, wharves for
handling imported fuel and storage tanks are also allowed for building by
the tender winning private enterprises.

With legal export earnings, private companies in the country are so
allowed to operate fuel filling stations which were formerly run by the
Ministry of Energy.

The authorities also encouraged the private enterprises to build such fuel
filling stations and fuel tanks on some highways to facilitate motor
vehicles running there.

As a follow-up measure, the authorities offered to lease land plots to the
private enterprises on a long-term basis for the move after it decided to
privatize such stations.

In November last year, Myanmar government's Trade Council, as an
initiative, announced a trade policy of allowing private companies to
import diesel with their legal export earning.

The government's Privatization Commission revealed that since 2000, two
port terminals in Yangon -- Asia World's in Ahlone township and Myanmar
International Terminal Thilawa (MITT) in Kyauktan township have been put
into private run.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 22, New Straits Times (Malaysia)
India walks diplomatic tightrope over Myanmar - Mahendra Ved

People across the world are happy about the release from detention of Aung
San Suu Kyi,
just as they are unhappy about the way Myanmar held an election that
preceded her freedom.

Persecuted since she won an election in 1990, Suu Kyi has had phases of
freedom in the past. The difference this time is that the military junta
feels international pressures, and after forcing a fait accompli so far as
governance is concerned, wants to engage in a public relations exercise.

The regime of Senior General Than Shwe, with his entire cabinet certain to
get elected to Parliament, wants to convey that it is relaxing its
controls and having released Suu Kyi, qualifies for some relaxation of
economic sanctions.

Neither the regime's nature and the tight grip it has, nor the way the
world looks at it, will change substantially with Suu Kyi's release. It is
therefore essential that the junta follows up on her release with moves to
engage with her on gradual political change.

If it believes Suu Kyi has been rendered ineffective by long years of
incarceration, it is mistaken. The spirited manner in which her freedom
has been welcomed at home and in the world's capitals demonstrates how
indispensable she remains to the future of Myanmar.

Suu Kyi has appealed for national reconciliation. She told the BBC in an
interview: "I don't want to see the military falling. I want to see the
military rising to dignified heights of professionalism and true
patriotism. I think it's quite obvious what the people want; the people
just want better lives based on security and on freedom."

That is the right approach. Her father, Aung San, was a soldier. The army
has always been a part of Myanmar's political life. It cannot be banished
from it. But its role can be diluted by the ascendance of democratic
forces.

Further, she has appealed to the world community for help.

"This is the time for Burma when we need help."

Without alluding that she may have struck, it is possible to speculate
that she would like the sanctions to ease.

These sanctions have punished the people more than the rulers. They are
like the sanctions on Cuba that have failed to remove Fidel Castro or his
brother Raul.

Sanctions compel attention on how the world looks at Myanmar. Unlike the
West that has been persistent about them, India is among those who have
opposed sanctions, receiving considerable opprobrium.

Initially, India vocally supported the pro-democracy forces led by Suu
Kyi. Subsequently, however, alarmed by the Chinese inroads into Myanmar,
India's public stance went silent on the suppression of dissent by the
military rulers.

So complex has been the situation that India's awarding Suu Kyi the
Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding came amid a major
anti-militant joint operation on the Indo-Myanmar border. Myamar
immediately withdrew to convey its anger.

India understands Suu Kyi, who grew up in New Delhi. It needs recalling
that when former president A.P.J. Abdul Kalam paid the first state visit
by an Indian to Myanmar, the New Delhi embassies of some 34 countries
sought to "understand" India's move.

During that March 2006 visit, Kalam conveyed to Than Shwe, who had
famously called Suu Kyi "my daughter" earlier, that "in India we respect
our daughters". The message was clear.

India has legitimate security concerns along a 1,645km border. Militancy
and even insurgency has been going on in that isolated northeastern
region. It has secured Myanmar's limited, but crucial, cooperation in
combating it.

To be fair, Myanmar has neither encouraged militancy nor has it taken an
overt pro-China line, two points on which it has proved to be a good
neighbour.

India did alter its tone and emphasis to meet the situation. But on
solidarity with Suu Kyi or on engaging Myanmar's rulers, it has not sought
to score brownie points.

Like Bangladesh and Myanmar's Southeast Asian neighbours, India has walked
a diplomatic tightrope, defying the West. Myanmar is one of the few issues
on which it disagrees with the United States.

Hence, it is hardly surprising that New Delhi ignored the mild rebuke
President Barack Obama delivered during his visit. India has not rushed in
with condemnation of the Myanmar election, calling it "an important step
towards the national reconciliation process being undertaken by the
government of Myanmar".

"As a close neighbour of Myanmar, we are confident that the release of Suu
Kyi will contribute to efforts for a more inclusive approach to political
change," External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna said.

According to Burma Campaign UK, over the last decade, an increasing number
of international corporations have left Myanmar or declared their
unwillingness to consider operating there.

Some companies have withdrawn, asserting that their decision to do so was
taken for "business" reasons, while others have made explicit their
concern regarding the political and human rights situation in Myanmar.

Neither the situation in Myanmar, nor dealing with it, is easy. It is best
done without making value judgments based on political or business
expediency.

The world must feel concerned. But sanctions are counter-productive and
need easing.

The challenges before Suu Kyi are huge. She will need to move with great
caution and yet steely determination. The idealist that she is, she knows
that her freedom without accompanying political changes in Myanmar will
mean little.

The impasse has persisted for far too long. The country needs to emerge
from the isolation it has largely been in since General Ne Win's coup
d'etat of 1962. The key to Myanmar's future lies with how much of a role
Suu Kyi can play in the days ahead. Being Buddhists, Myanmars know that
their salvation lies within.
____________________________________

November 22 - 28, Myanmar Times
Analysts anticipate slow but steady economic reform - Kyaw Hsu Mon

Among the many victorious candidates for the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP) in the November 7 election were a handful of
high-profile businessmen.

Analysts say their presence could increase the likelihood that the party
will bring about much-needed economic reforms – and that those reforms are
implemented properly.

Among the well-known businessmen who will enter the Pyithu Hluttaw is U
Htay Myint, president of the Myanmar Fisheries Federation and head of
Yuzana Company, who won the seat of Myeik, while both U Win Myint, head of
the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry
(UMFCCI), and Dr Khin Shwe from Zaykabar Construction, will feature in the
Amyotha Hluttaw.

A handful of businessmen were also victorious for the USDP in region and
state hluttaws.

UMFCCI secretary Dr Maung Mg Lay said these representatives would be able
to provide valuable input when economic laws are drafted.

“As they themselves are businessman, they can listen to what the business
sector is saying and then make useful suggestions, either to enact
regulation or get rid of useless regulation,” he said.

He said he was confident the new government would be able to quickly
improve the business sector and the UMFCCI would lobby for changes it
considered necessary for the business community.

“Our federation has a duty to push the interests of traders and
businesspeople,” he said.

“There will be suggestions from businesspeople who are both in the
hluttaws and outside of the hluttaws over what kind of economic reforms
are needed. There’s also the party’s policy on what they will do about the
economy to consider,” he said. “It is difficult to see widespread reforms
within the next five years but I hope they can implement some measures,
particularly to make it easier for small and medium-sized enterprises.”

“At the moment, some businessmen are calling for a 10 percent reduction in
tax on export income,” he added.

According to the USDP’s policy broadcast on state media, the party
supports the emergence of a market-oriented system; the right of the
state, regional organisations, cooperatives and enterprises to participate
in the business sector; the development of small and medium enterprises;
and the prevention of monopolies and market speculation.

“If there is political will then it shouldn’t be difficult to reform the
economy. Whatever happens, I’m expecting at least some improvement,” U
Khin Maung Nyo said.

Among those elected to the Pyithu Hluttaw is U Ko Gyi, who easily won the
seat of Aungmyaythazan in Mandalay Region for the USDP.

The 63-year-old businessman has worked for various trade organisations
over the past three decades and currently serves as vice chairman of the
Mandalay Region Chambers of Commerce and Industry, chairman of the
Mandalay Region Oil Dealers Association, and executive committee member of
the UMFCCI.

He said he would focus first on issues affecting Mandalay Region, where he
said an important task was ensuring farmers are able to get a decent price
for their goods.

“That’s essential for improving incomes,” he told The Myanmar Times last
week. “If the economic situation improves I think we will see a shift
towards more industrialisation.”

He said he expected the number of light and medium industries to increase
and increasingly raw products will be value-added in local factories.

He said the party would attempt to increase job opportunities and incomes,
as well as ensure commodity prices remain stable.

“Job opportunities with sufficient incomes will emerge when the economy
develops. I think it will improve slowly, step by step. It won’t happen
straight away. This is just the start.”

Translated by Thiri Min Htun

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 23, Foreign Affairs
Postscript: Burma's Stubborn State: How to Curtail the Military Junta -
Michael Green

In November 2007, Derek Mitchell and I published an essay in Foreign
Affairs (“Asia’s Forgotten Crisis,” November/December 2007) arguing that
U.S. policy toward Burma (renamed Myanmar by the country’s military junta)
needed to move beyond the debate over whether to place sanctions on the
country’s repressive military junta or engage it. We also asserted that
Washington must form a comprehensive strategy that leverages regional
relationships and uses a mix of incentives to nudge the isolated regime
toward democracy.

Three years later, the junta has released the Nobel Peace Prize laureate
Aung San Suu Kyi, the longtime inspirational leader of Burma’s democratic
opposition who had been under some form of house arrest or detention for
the last 14 years. Although the release of Suu Kyi has to be welcomed by
her supporters worldwide, it falls far short of objectives set for Burma
policy by the Obama administration and others in the international
community. They sought not only Suu Kyi’s unconditional and permanent
release but also the inclusion of the democratic opposition and ethnic
minorities in Burma’s political process, as well as the establishment of
international standards and monitoring for the country’s elections on
November 7.

None of this happened. Meanwhile, the regime has opened a dangerous new
path by partnering with North Korea to explore nuclear capabilities, a
potentially explosive issue given recent revelations that Pyongyang has
successfully moved forward with its own program for highly enriched
uranium. Although freeing Suu Kyi may allow Burma’s leaders to escape
scrutiny for now, their budding nuclear ambitions could rejuvenate
international interest in placing pressure on their regime.

Suu Kyi was released in the wake of Burma’s early November elections,
which solidified the rule of the regime’s Union Solidarity and Development
Party. The international community rightly dismissed the elections as
fraudulent. The election stuffed the legislature with former military men
who had swapped their uniforms for suits. Burma’s constitution -- passed
overwhelmingly in a referendum staged by the junta in 2009, while of the
country dealt with severe flooding -- locks in a controlling share of the
seats in the legislature for the military or their proxies and authorizes
the generals still in the military command structure to declare martial
law again at their own discretion. The main opposition party, the National
League for Democracy, was disbanded pursuant to a new election law before
the elections, and the ethnic minorities who refused to bow to the new
law’s restrictions have come under renewed military assaults, causing
thousands to flee into Bangladesh, China, and Thailand. The junta
justifies its repressive measures against the democratic opposition as
necessary to hold together the country’s fractured ethnic groups.

Some optimists have argued that Burmese politics might be moving, however
gradually, in the right direction. Countries such as Indonesia and South
Korea, they point out, began their own transitions to full democracy after
their previously authoritarian regimes conducted less than perfect
elections. By comparison, then, the release of Suu Kyi would be the
junta’s signal to the world that it is willing to open more political
space for different viewpoints within the country, albeit slowly.

But at this time, neither the Indonesian nor South Korean scenario is
likely. The military leaders of Indonesia and South Korea actually
intended to transform their countries into democracies, not reconsolidate
their own rule. Civil society was allowed to mobilize in both countries,
and the major opposition parties were not forced to disband by new
election laws. Burma’s leader, Senior General Than Shwe, and his generals
have no intention of following the Indonesian or South Korean model. It
was no coincidence that North Koreans led the election monitoring in Burma
on November 7.

Nor did Than Shwe free Suu Kyi to reconcile with the democratic
opposition. The junta has released her before, only to re-arrest her or
turn its thugs on her, as in 1996 and 2003, when political supporters of
the regime attacked her motorcade. In negotiations prior to Burma’s
elections this month, the Obama administration offered to relax sanctions
in exchange for modest steps toward reconciliation with the opposition and
ethnic minorities. U.S. negotiators came away with nothing. And despite
Suu Kyi’s release, more than 2,000 other political prisoners continue to
languish in prison.

These are not the actions of a regime interested in reconciliation with
the democratic opposition. More likely, Than Shwe freed Suu Kyi to stave
off a growing tide of international scrutiny related to his regime’s
forged election results and suspected nuclear ambitions. The junta’s
interest in nuclear weapons was revealed by defectors and internal sources
in Burma, and nuclear experts validated their concern in a report to the
UN Security Council this year (evidence to date points to Burma’s pursuit
of capabilities from North Korea but not yet a major program). The regime
probably also worries about movement at the United Nations for a
commission of inquiry into its internal repression, particularly after
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed support for such a
commission while traveling in the region earlier this month. By releasing
Suu Kyi with unclear conditions and duration, the regime encourages
supporters in the West to argue that the international community should be
patient with Burma’s apparent progress rather than levy new sanctions on
the junta. Meanwhile, Burma’s neighbors, China and India, continue to vie
for strategic access to Burma’s natural resources (especially natural gas)
-- a rivalry that has undermined U.S.-led efforts to press for Burmese
democratic reform.

The situation in Burma thus seems worse than it did when Derek Mitchell
and I called on Washington to adopt a new approach to the country that
would engage Burma and foster the formation of an international
negotiation group composed of Burma’s neighbors, similar to the six-party
talks set up to coordinate negotiations with North Korea. This group would
create a package of incentives to reward reform and sanctions to punish
continued repression and the pursuit of nuclear technology. We suggested
that the Obama administration appoint a coordinator for Burma affairs to
manage this group and help it establish benchmarks for measuring the
regime’s behavior.

Although little of this has materialized, the Obama administration has
tried to adopt some of these tracks. It intensified engagement with Burma
based on a specific set of actions that the junta would need to follow in
exchange for the relaxation of U.S.-specific sanctions and began the
process by warning that U.S. sanctions might be increased if the regime
were not forthcoming. The administration also sent envoys to explain its
approach to Burma’s neighbors. Yet these disparate parts did not add up to
a consistent or comprehensive strategy. The United States did not unite
nations surrounding Burma in a negotiating coalition, nor did it
successfully rally the international community to step in and pressure the
junta should it undermine negotiations. The administration never appointed
a Burma coordinator, despite the fact that the U.S. Congress passed
legislation mandating the position. (I was nominated for the post at the
end of the Bush administration, but it remains unfilled.) Finally, the
Obama administration has not lived up to its promise of ramping up
sanctions in the wake of Burmese intransigence. Although Obama’s direct
diplomacy with the regime was skillful, it would have been bolstered by
these other elements of a comprehensive strategic approach to the problem.

Nevertheless, opportunities to pressure Burma’s military leaders remain
open. First, the junta may be mistaken in thinking that it could control
the impact of Suu Kyi’s release. It has consistently underestimated her.
In 1990, for instance, it permitted the National League for Democracy to
participate in elections and watched as the party won a landslide victory
(albeit quickly dismissed by the military). Since her release, Suu Kyi has
carefully calibrated her public comments -- suggesting that efforts by the
regime to engage her supporters could lead to the relaxation of
international sanctions, but also standing by the principle that Burma
must move toward real democracy. In so doing, she has seized the moral
high ground both internationally and within Burma. The regime has not yet
figured out how to suppress the hope that she engenders in the Burmese
people.

Second, in its paranoid search for security, the regime may have made a
drastic miscalculation. The United States may have difficulty organizing
countries to sustain a campaign for democratic change in Burma, but
Burma’s partnership with North Korea in its quest for nuclear technology
will surely attract international attention. In March 2003, North Korean
officials warned a George W. Bush administration delegation, of which I
was a member, that they would transfer nuclear capabilities to other
countries if there were not sufficient U.S. concessions (such as ending
the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Japan and South Korea, withdrawing troops
from Northeast Asia, providing economic aid, and recognizing Pyongyang as
a nuclear weapons state). In September 2007, the Israeli air force bombed
a reactor construction site in Syria that the CIA later said had been
built with North Korean assistance. The North Korean nuclear connection to
Burma has attracted the notice of credible proliferation experts reporting
to the UN Security Council.

Than Shwe’s search for security from his own people may not have aroused
sufficient international concern, but his pursuit of the bomb will. There
is not yet clear evidence of any nuclear program or capability, but the
evidence of intent is growing. If this newest crisis erupts as many
expect, the United States will need to do a better job formulating a
strategy that combines direct engagement with pressure and international
diplomatic coordination. And in the midst of this storm will stand Suu
Kyi, a courageous women backed by her countrymen and thousands more still
under arrest. On her shoulders much of the hope for the people of Burma
continues to rest.

Michael Green is Associate Professor of International Relations at the
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a
Senior Adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies. He served on the staff of the National Security
Council from 2001–5.