BurmaNet News, December 3, 2010

[Editor]

December 3, 2010, Issue #4096


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Belgian ambassador meets Suu Kyi
Irrawaddy: Junta launches new propaganda outlet
SHAN: Junta to set up more artillery units around Shan, Wa bases

ON THE BORDER
Mizzima: KIO urges traders to leave Laiza base as war looms

HEALTH
New Light of Myanmar: Myanmar achieves unique distinction of bringing
gradual decline in HIV prevalence of 0.94% in 2000, 0.67% in 2007 and
0.61% in 2009

INTERNATIONAL
DVB: Burma off Security Council agenda
United News of India: Nambiar asks for wider representation in Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
The Elders: Speaking to Aung San Suu Kyi – at long last! – Desmond Tutu
Le Monde Diplomatique: Burma’s gradual transition – Renaud Egreteau
Guardian (UK): Aung San Suu Kyi has shown that goodness can sometimes be
enough - Sarah Brown
Washington Post: Washington's Burma policy isolates ... Washington –
Stanley A. Weiss

PRESS RELEASE
Asian Human Rights Commission: Prisoner attacked over complaint of inhuman
conditions



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

December 3, Agence France Presse
Belgian ambassador meets Suu Kyi

Brussels — The ambassador of Belgium, which currently holds the rotating
EU presidency, on Friday met Myanmar's Aung San Suu Kyi at her home and
reiterated support for her fight for democracy.

Belgium's Foreign Minister Steven Vanackere said in a statement that the
ambassador had told the democracy leader, who was released November 13,
that European Union member states would back efforts to win democracy in
Myanmar.

"The November 7 election not having produced an opening that was awaited,
Belgium as well as other EU member states must back the democratic
opposition in general and Aung San Suu Kyi in particular", he said.

"It is indispensable that the voice of the democratic opposition, as well
as those of ethnic minorities and civil society, be heard," Vanackere
added.

The minister also called for the release of the country's estimated 2,100
political prisoners.

"I urge the Myanmar regime to ensure that Aung San Suu Kyi's recent
release be a first step towards the unconditional release of all the other
political prisoners."

Amnesty International claims there are still more than 2,200 political
prisoners in Myanmar being held under vague laws frequently used to
criminalise peaceful political dissent.

____________________________________

December 3, Irrawaddy
Junta launches new propaganda outlet – Wai Moe

Fresh from election victory, the Burmese military is expanding its media
presence with a second Burmese-language publication, the Naypyidaw
Newspaper, in early 2011.

The Naypyidaw Newspaper will join other military propaganda outlets such
as Myawaddy TV, Myawaddy Publications, and the Yadanabon News, a
Mandalay-based daily.

The military's plans for a new newspaper first leaked out as early as
2009, when Myawaddy TV reportedly recruited around 40 journalists.

Sixty intern staffers are currently being trained at the military's
Yadanabon News, according to a report in the most recent edition of the
Rangoon weekly 7 Day News journal, which said officials from the newspaper
held a meeting with journalists from Mandalay on Nov. 18 in the offices of
the Yadanabon News.

Media sources said the Naypyidaw Newspaper will be printed by Myawaddy
Publications and, apart from the headquarters in Naypyidaw, it will have
offices in Rangoon and Mandalay.

“The Naypyidaw newspaper is to target military officials and other
government staffers in the junta’s capital,” said a journalist in Mandalay
who spoke on condition of anonymity.

 “Propaganda within the military and government ministries seems important
for the military, which specially prepares reports in newspapers for
their consumption,” he said.

All army broadcasting and publications are run under the military’s
Directorate of Public Relations and Psychological Warfare.

An example of how Burma's military manipulates the news occurred in
November, when Burma’s dailies falsely reported fighting between troops
opposed to the border guard force plan from renegade Brigade 5 of the
cease-fire Democratic Karen Buddhist Army and government forces as a clash
between the army and troops from the non-cease-fire Karen National Union.

Observers said this was aimed at soldiers who may have been concerned
about the breakdown in the cease-fire agreement.

The Naypyidaw Newspaper will follow other state-run newspapers, The New
Light of Myanmar in English, Myanma Alin and the Mirror in Burmese, the
military-run Yadanabon News, and City News and Mandalay News run by the
Rangoon and Mandalay municipal committees respectively.

The military began its propaganda and psychological warfare unit in 1952
when it published the first issue of the Myawaddy Magazine to counter
anti-military leftist publications at the time.

The military propaganda machine was formed and supervised by Brig-Gen Aung
Kyi, Brig-Gen Maung Maung and Col Ba Than, who masterminded military
organization in the 1950s alongside Gen Ne Win.

The current junta supremo, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, became a psychological
warfare specialist when he began working in the Pyschological Warfare
Department in 1958.

After the 1988 military coup, the junta expanded its propaganda machine,
founding the army’s Myawaddy TV on March 27,1995, the anniversary of
Burma’s armed forces day and nearly three year after Than Shwe succeeded
as junta head and commander in chief of the Burmese armed forces from
Snr-Gen Saw Maung.

Irrawaddy reporter Min Naing Thu contributed to this report.

____________________________________

December 3, Shan Herald News Agency
Junta to set up more artillery units around Shan, Wa bases – Hseng Khio Fah

The military junta is reportedly going to set up two more artillery units
in Shan State South between the Shan State Army (SSA) North bases in the
west and United Wa State Army (UWSA) bases in the east, according to
informed sources from Shan State South.

One is to be located in Mongzang, Monghsu township, southeast of the SSA
First Brigade’s Headquarters Wanhai and another further south where the
former SSA North’s 7th Brigade headquarters at Kali, Kunhing township, is
located.

The director of the Burma Army Artillery (unidentified) accompanied by
Commander of Taunggyi based Eastern Region Command Brig-Gen San Oo, were
reported to have arrived at Kunhing on Tuesday evening, 30 November and
continued to Mongzang.

The commander was escorted by some 100 Burma Army troops plus 3 squads of
local militia men from Loipha, former headquarters of SSA’s 7th Brigade
that transformed itself into Nyapyitaw’s Home Guard Force (HGF) in April.

“They returned on the next day after finished inspecting in Mongzang and
went to inspect the site near Kunghing-Takaw motorroad for setting up
another artillery base,” a source said.

A border watcher commented that although military junta is beefing up
forces there has yet to be any sign of a major operation. “But it is
certain they [ruling military] are preparing to launch military operation
against the ceasefire groups after a new government is installed,” he
said.

Currently, the number of reports of Burma Army movements to the Shan State
has increased. Last month alone, at least a hundred Dongfeng six-wheel
trucks from Shan State North’s Lashio carrying supplies went through to
Kunlong-Panglong, north of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) controlled
territory.

“We don’t really know what they carried because all were covered with
black-tarpaulin,” an eye witness said.

At the same time, the liaison office of the SSA’s First Brigade based in
Tangyan was reportedly closed by military junta, giving no reason for the
closure, according to a local source. “They are now preparing to collect
the list of people who used to have relations with the SSA,” he said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

December 3, Mizzima News
KIO urges traders to leave Laiza base as war looms – Phanida

Chiang Mai – The main Kachin quasi-government organisation has urged
businessmen in its northern Burma stronghold of Laiza to leave the town
over fears of potential military conflict between the ethnic armed group
and junta forces.

The Kachin Independence Organisation had since Monday warned traders in
the town near the Sino-Burmese border that fighting was likely to break
out, a spokesman said.

“We urged the traders to leave town for their own sake. If we do not warn
them and fighting breaks out, they will be caught up in the troubles 
 we
want them to move to other towns”, KIO Colonel Naw Ang said.

“This doesn’t mean we’re evicting them. We’ve just urged them to leave
town as we’re concerned about their safety,” he told Mizzima.

The junta-run Burmese Army had since Sunday started to reinforce its
battalions in Kachin State. Kachin military sources said that an artillery
unit had encamped in Bhamo District in the south of the state.

The KIO believed that the junta had also sent for reinforcements from
armoured divisions 7004 in Myitkyina, the state’s capital, 7005 in Mohnyin
and 7006 in Bhamo, which fall under Artillery Operations Command 904 based
in Mohnyin.

KIO had also recently been ordered to close its liaison offices, set up
throughout the state as lines of communication between the junta and the
Kachin grouping.

At the same time, the junta had applied further pressure on the KIO by
blocking trade from China through Laiza, a vital source of revenue for the
group. Chinese citizens are also among the traders in the stronghold town.

A shop owner told Mizzima: “I come from Bhamo and run a shop in Laiza. Now
I have to return to Bhamo 
 I don’t know what to do.”

The KIO has rejected the junta’s design for it to bring its armed wing,
the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), under Burmese Army command within a
Border Guard Force (BGF). Further signs of tension over the BGF plan’s
rejection were evidenced in that the junta’s Union Election Commission
blacklisted the holding of the national elections on November 7 in some
KIO-controlled areas of the state.

Since in the middle of last month, the junta had bolstered with 1,000
troops Military Operations Commands 3 in Mohnyin, near the Kasone region
in areas controlled by KIA battalion 11 under brigade 2.

____________________________________
HEALTH

December 3, New Light of Myanmar
Myanmar achieves unique distinction of bringing gradual decline in HIV
prevalence of 0.94% in 2000, 0.67% in 2007 and 0.61% in 2009

Nay Pyi Taw — A ceremony to mark the World AIDS Day 2010 took place at the
Ministry of Health, here, this morning.

Speaking on the occasion, Minister for Health Dr Kyaw Myint said: Today,
we are celebrating the World AIDS Day Commemoration Ceremony. Every year
World AIDS Day commemorative activities are being implemented on 1st
December and following 7 days in all the countries around the world. The
commemorative activity of the ceremony is to be participated with the
entire people including departments, social organizations and HIV
patients.

Every year, appropriate slogans are selected for implementing World AIDS
Day commemorative activities. This year slogan is “Stop AIDS, Keep the
Promise. Avoid Stigma and Discrimination: Towards Universal Access”. By
reselecting last year World AIDS Day slogan, “Stop AIDS, keep the promise”
which is meant to strengthen the coordinated efforts of implementing
HIV/AIDS prevention and care activities by related departments, NGOs, the
media, local businesses, community members including people living with
HIV/AIDS and their families in countries all over the world.

Second line of this year World AIDS Day slogan is “Avoid Stigma and
Discrimination: Towards Universal Access”. This is chosen so as to have
empathy towards people living with HIV and AIDS and their families and to
give psychological support without stigma and discriminations and to make
them accessible to available services.

Following the diagnosis of first AIDS case in 1981, HIV has spread to all
countries throughout the world. According to Global AIDS epidemic update
2009, a total of 33.3 million individuals have been living with HIV and
AIDS globally in 2009. Due to the rapid spread of HIV, 2.6 million
individuals had been infected with HIV and 1.8 million individuals had
died during 2009. All over the world, highest mortality of individuals
between age group of 15-49 years is due to AIDS. In some countries, life
expectancy is now declining because of AIDS.

Coordinated and collaborative efforts of all implementing partners have
become essential to achieve the target of United Nations Millennium
Development Goal 6: “have halted by 2015 and began to reverse the spread
of HIV/AIDS”: as well as to achieve “Universal access to HIV prevention,
treatment, care and support by 2015”. In Myanmar, 11 local NGOs, 21
International NGOs and 7 UN agencies are actively collaborating with the
Ministry of Health in responding to HIV and AIDS. Moreover, being a member
nation of ASEAN and a member of ATFOA (ASEAN Task Force on AIDS), Myanmar
is actively participating in the ASEAN work programme in HIV and AIDS; and
Mekong regional HIV and AIDS projects. In addition, Myanmar has been
actively participating in the global and regional activities initiated by
various UN agencies.

In Myanmar, AIDS is one of the priority diseases of the National Health
Plan and Prevention and Care activities for HIV/AIDS are being implemented
as a National Concern. Since 1989, multi-sectoral National AIDS Committee
was formed in accordance with the guidelines laid down by National Health
Committee. Under National AIDS Committee, a Working Committee was
organized with various departments and national NGOs, and AIDS Committees
were formed at various administrative levels. Myanmar Country Coordination
Mechanism is also formed, comprising Ministry of Health, related
ministries, UN agencies, National and International NGOs, and people
living with HIV in order to get effective coordinated response to
HIV/AIDS.

As national response to HIV, National AIDS Programme, Department of Health
with coordinated efforts of related ministries, UN agencies, NGOs and
other implementing partners has developed and is implementing National
Strategic Plan on HIV and AIDS (2006-2010) through multi-sectoral
approach. In accordance with 13 Strategic Directions of the National
Strategic Plan, the following ten major activities comprising of Advocacy
Meetings; Awareness raising on HIV/AIDS for various population groups;
100% targeted condom promotion programme in 170 townships; voluntary
confidential counseling and testing services; provision of STI services to
prevent sexual transmission of HIV; prevention of transmission of HIV
among intravenous drug users; nationwide screening of HIV for safe blood
supply; prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in 210 townships
and 38 general hospitals; provision of ART treatment in 30 hospitals;
treatment of opportunistic infections; and community home based care for
AIDS patients and their families with involvement of PLHIVs; promotion of
multi-sectoral collaboration and cooperation; and implementation of
monitoring, supervision and evaluation activities have been implementing
by the National AIDS Programme. Since 2005, ART has been provided to the
patients at Specialist Hospitals (Waibagi) and (Mingaladon) from
government sector; and more than 26,300 PLHIVs are accessing to ART from
both government and NGOs. In order to make PLHIVs stay conveniently in a
healthy surrounding while coming to Yangon for ART, arrangements are being
made for them to stay in Thakayta Hospital very recently.

According to the results of the Workshop on Estimation and Projection of
HIV and AIDS in Myanmar which was conducted with technical inputs from
UNAIDS and WHO, it is evident that Myanmar has achieved a unique
distinction of bringing a gradual decline in HIV prevalence of 0.94 per
cent in 2000, 0.67% in 2007 and 0.61% in 2009. Such an achievement is due
to multi-sectoral coordinated efforts of all implementing partners and the
entire community.

Besides the strong national commitment towards the fight against HIV/AIDS
and support from three disease fund, Myanmar has successfully gained round
9 global fund grants in 2010. With all these, we are quite sure that
prevention, treatment, and care activities could be momentously scaling up
in the coming years.

We would like to encourage all implementing partners to keep on the speed
of fighting against HIV/AIDS so as to maintain the current achievement
while giving equal weight on scaling up the implementation of prevention
and treatment activities In conclusion, I would like to express our
sincere thanks to related departments, UN organizations, local and
international NGOs, community based organizations that have contributed to
the commemoration of the 2010 World AIDS Day.

UNHCR Resident Representative Mr Bhairaja Panday read the message sent by
the UN Secretary-General.

UNAIDS Country Coordinator Dr Sun Gang read the message of UNAIDS.

Minister for Health Dr Kyaw Myint presented prizes to winners in the basic
education high school level essay contest.

Deputy Ministers Dr Mya Oo and Dr Paing Soe awarded winners in the basic
education primary and middle level painting contests.

Also present on the occasion were Deputy Minister for Progress of Border
Areas and National Races and Development Affairs U Tin Ngwe, Deputy
Minister for Immigration and Population U Win Sein and officials.

After the ceremony, the minister and the deputy ministers visited the
booth to mark the World AIDS Day 2010.

This year’s motto for World AIDS Day 2010 is “Stop AIDS. Keep the Promise.
Avoid Stigma and Discrimination: Towards Universal Access”. - MNA

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

December 3, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma off Security Council agenda – Joseph Allchin

The issue of Burma will not be discussed at the UN Security Council this
month as speculation abounds that China has pulled the topic from the
agenda.

This comes despite the fact that the current Security Council chair, the
US, is a vocal critic of the Burmese regime. Inner City Press news agency
said that “China had opposed the inclusion of Myanmar [Burma] in the
Program of Work, even as a footnote”.

China has repeatedly blocked attempts by other member nations to censure
the military government in Naypyidaw, and in October was accused of waging
a diplomatic campaign to block a commission of inquiry into possible war
crimes committed by the junta.

At a press conference to announce the program of work, the US ambassador
to the UN, Susan Rice, appeared to intentionally dodge a question about a
mysterious blank spot where Burma should have been.

Rice did however confirm that UN Chief of Staff, Vijay Nambiar, who
recently visited the country, will brief the Council on his findings on 6
December, listed on the Council’s program in the section entitled ‘any
other business’.

Nambiar failed to meet any senior junta members, and his trip was dogged
by controversy after registered journalists were barred from his press
conference in Rangoon prior to departure.

Unlike other UN officials, he has so far steered clear of condemning the
junta, regarded as one of the world’s most draconian governments on a raft
of so-called ‘freedom indexes’.

His appointment comes shortly after a controversial stint as UN envoy to
Sri Lanka, when he appeared to ignore pleas by the Tamil Tigers to oversee
a surrender of the ethnic rebels, who were later gunned down. Nambiar, a
close aide to Ban Ki-moon, takes the place of maligned UN envoy to Burma,
Ibrahim Gambari, who was heavily criticised following a term that reaped
few results.

The UN is also reeling after the exposure of US diplomatic cables that
ordered officials to spy on senior UN staff, including Ban Ki-moon. It
comes as part of a huge exposure of cables by whistleblowing website,
Wikileaks, which was dropped to by its domain name provider. The leak
included evidence that French President Nicholas Sarkozy had earlier
considered pulling French companies out of Burma.

____________________________________

December 3, United News of India
Nambiar asks for wider representation in Myanmar

United Nations – The UN envoy on Myanmar, Vijay Nambiar, has requested
that Yangon work out a broad-based political transition that includes
those who did not participate in elections held last month.

Among them is recently released Nobel Peace Prize laureate and democracy
icon Aung San Suu Kyi. Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD),
won the last elections two decades ago, which were invalidated by the
Southeast Asian nation's rulers.

Mr Nambiar, special adviser to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, was somewhat
upbeat about the current situation in the reclusive country, now ruled by
the military.

''I got a programme which was fairly open and they allowed me to meet the
people I wanted to meet, which was quite unusual and I think it was very
welcome,'' he said, talking to UN Radio.

Mr Nambiar, who is a career diplomat, is formerly the envoy of India to
the United Nations.

''One of the purposes of the visit was to encourage the government to
build on recent developments and in a sense to work out a political
transition that was broad-based and inclusive so that it involved both
those who participated and who didn’t,'' Mr Nambiar said, referring to the
November 7 elections.

''I did sense that the Government did receive my message.

Now what they do is to be seen,'' Mr Nambiar added.

During his visit, Mr Nambiar, who is also the Chief of Staff to Mr Ban,
met Ms Suu Kyi, now freed after spending much of the past two decades
under house arrest, and other members of the NLD.

He also held talks with representatives of some of the major political
parties which participated in the recent polls and members of civil
society groups.

Mr Nambiar, whose visit was carried out at the invitation of the
government and in continuation of the good offices dialogue between the UN
and Myanmar, reiterated the world body's long-term commitment to continue
to work with the government and people of Myanmar in their efforts to
address the political, humanitarian and developmental challenges facing
their country.

''There is a role for the United Nations both in the context of the
political developments as well as the broader context of the
socio-economic development,'' he said, citing the UN’s humanitarian role
in the devastation following cyclones Nargis and Giri.

''Of course, the Government does see the increasing role of the UN in the
context of sensitizing the international community to being able to draw
down the sanctions which individual Member States have imposed on Myanmar,
and they see that this could be an occasion 'the new developments' to get
a slightly better international environment that will help their economic
development,'' Mr Nambiar said, according to a transcript on the radio
interview made available at UN headquarters in New York.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

December 3, The Elders
Speaking to Aung San Suu Kyi – at long last! – Desmond Tutu

I watched the coverage of Aung San Suu Kyi’s release from house arrest
with an overwhelming sense of relief and joy. Like millions of people
around the world, my fellow Elders and I shared the delight of the Burmese
people at seeing her freed after such a long time.

Just last week, I was finally able to have a wonderful telephone
conversation with our honorary Elder.

The Lady – or my Sister, as I call her – is so dignified, poised and
self-assured yet also has a tremendous sense of fun. She constantly seemed
to be on the verge of bursting into laughter. Her grace and forbearance
despite all she has been through is a lesson to us all.

During our conversation, I told her that we always have an empty chair
draped in Burmese silk for her and her country’s other political prisoners
at our meetings. She in turn expressed her appreciation for all the
support that she has received.

She told me about the need for national reconciliation and of her hope
that the people of Burma will soon be able to enjoy the fruits of
democracy. She said that, despite her release, now is not the time for the
international community to turn its attention away from Burma – the
country is not yet free.

Just as my Sister said that she will not be ‘free’ until Burma is ‘free’,
I say that no one in the world is truly free until we – including the
people of Burma – are all free.

In Burma’s hour of need, we must stand with those who stand for democracy
and justice. Daw Suu Kyi’s release is just the beginning of a long
process; Burma’s immediate future is still uncertain.

The elections earlier this month cannot be described as free or fair, and
we must all continue to insist on the release of Burma’s 2203 political
prisoners. Indeed, the number of ‘prisoners of conscience’ in the country
– among them human rights defenders, journalists, labour activists and
Buddhist monks and nuns – has more than doubled over the past few years.
They are languishing in Burma’s prisons and labour camps, and many are
suffering from ill-treatment and torture. The world, and in particular
Burma’s ASEAN neighbours, must speak louder for their release.

When I think back to the situation in South Africa, I remember that there
were many times when it felt like we would never see freedom in our
country, when those who oppressed us seemed invincible. As I always say
though, this is a moral universe, injustice and oppression will lose out
in the end. Led by a lady of great moral courage, the people of Burma are
doing their utmost to hasten that day. We must do all we can to support
them
____________________________________

December 3, Le Monde Diplomatique
Burma’s gradual transition – Renaud Egreteau

Burma’s elections were a sham, and the release of Aung San Suu Kyi soon
after was hard to interpret as a gesture. But the country is changing
politically, probably for the better, although not in any way the outside
world can yet comprehend

A week after the elections of 7 November, the Burmese junta released the
main opposition figure, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi.
But the euphoria then masked the reality of the political landscape,
which, despite its evolution, remains dominated by the armed forces
(Tatmadaw). For many, the sham ballot and the transition process begun by
the junta in 2003 – a “road map towards a disciplined democracy” – only
confirmed the political role of an anachronistic military dictatorship
(1).

However, there are considerable national and local transformations in the
army and the opposition. The army is the only structure that seems to be
truly organised, hierarchical and capable of intervening in all areas of
political, economic and cultural life. It has dominated the Burmese state
for over half a century. Its authority has not been challenged by any
unified opposition, not even by Aung San Suu Kyi as leader of the National
League for Democracy (NLD). Since independence in 1948, the decades of
civil war, Burma’s unique geopolitical location between India and China,
and the militaristic traditions inherited from the anti-colonial struggle
and a fascination with imperial Japan have meant there are few competing
institutions.

So Burma’s present problem is not replacing a military dictatorship with a
complete democracy, even one supported by Aung San Suu Kyi, but
anticipating how the army’s dominance will evolve as it moves from
“praetorian” (direct and absolute) power to something less direct and
slowly comes to terms with challenges to its omnipotence. Accepting that
Burma’s nascent civil society is plural might eventually lead to gradual
democratisation. That is needed to stop the criminalisation of Burmese
society (a mafia-like business world, drug barons, armed ethnic militias),
which is quick to turn to political violence and torn apart by financial
and political conflicts of interests around the omnipresent military
regime. Is that an unrealistic expectation? Perhaps, but the elections are
a part of this dynamic: the fifth step (of seven) of the transitional
strategy (2). Even Aung San Suu Kyi accepts that a “transition” is
necessary. “I don’t want to see the military falling,” she said. “I want
to see the military rising to dignified heights of professionalism and
true patriotism” (3).

Despite repeated purges during the past decade that rejuvenated the
military hierarchy by sidelining potentially reformist elements, the junta
faces its most important generational transformation. The last two
survivors of the coup of 18 September 1988, Generals Than Shwe and Maung
Aye, both in their 70s, are preparing to exit, and with them their family
clans and civil and financial support networks. So far, no charismatic
figure has emerged among the new arrivals, nor is it likely to since the
old guard are eager to weaken struggles for influence in a new faceless
regime.

The political-military situation will become more complex over the next
decade with the creation of a bicameral national parliament and 14
decentralised local governments and parliaments (the 13 military regions
are to be maintained). The current rulers believe this evolution will
balance the forces, making it possible to contain internal rivalries and
ensure their gradual withdrawal from power. In parallel, the government
will shift towards a system that is still autocratic, but where
intervention by the army will happen in civilian guise, through such
groups as the new Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) or
business circles dedicated to defending their interests. The army will
also give new opportunities to its members, as well as to the circles of
CEOs that have supported it till now.

This year, there have been several reshuffles inside the ruling class.
Others are still to come. Beside these internal upheavals, the
privatisation of state enterprises (particularly in the energy sector and
management of ports and banks) was re-launched in February – and this
gives “retired” officers or their families new ways to get rich. Many are
taking over businesses – import-export, communications, oil or banking –
that were previously in the hands of the army; they can try to form new
conglomerates that may one day rival existing economic heavyweights, such
as the Htoo Group owned by the entrepreneur Tay Za.

As in Indonesia and Thailand, clientelist patronage by former military
turned businessmen ensures some protection for the regime. This strategy
aims to prevent the emergence of a civilian opposition force among former
soldiers. Currently, these soldiers are more preoccupied with managing
their capital than with political power. So they are forced to have
cordial relations with a monopolistic state sector that still dominates
the formal economy and orchestrates the distribution of wealth. But
nothing guarantees the success of the transition strategy. Managing the
rising economic forces, among the military and beyond, may be particularly
delicate as it will produce new struggles for influence.

Many observers believe that the generals, having agreed to hold elections
(however controlled) merely swapped their military uniform for the
traditional longyi of Burmese politicians; it’s all the same. But this
analysis is simplistic. The refashioning of the state apparatus that will
follow the elections will not be a foregone conclusion: the passage from
military to civilian rule, and the politico-military landscape being
sketched out, are likely to generate new internal tensions in the current
regime (though without threatening its foundation).

A great many unknowns

How will roles be divided between the military hierarchy, almost
omnipotent until now, and the new civil and parliamentary apparatus
(mainly) embodied by the USDP? The USDP was formed out of the Union
Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), headed by Than Shwe since
1993 and despised by the army, where membership is obligatory. The USDP is
made up of former junta officials, and also of civilian notables and
businessmen. It is no surprise that this party easily won the November
elections (officially the USDP gathered 76.5% of the votes) (4), the
results have still not been declared). But the USDP’s future relationship
with the army must still be defined, as must its relations with other
movements that are also said to be close to the armed forces. These
include the National Unity Party (NUP), described in the 1990 elections
(5) as “the party of the army and the old regime”, but whose role as
arbitrator might yet be decisive in future parliaments.

Another question surrounds future relations between the highest-ranking
officers of the Tatmadaw – the rising generation of generals Myint Aung,
Ko Ko, Min Aung Hlaing and Kyaw Swe, all in their 50s – and the old guard:
ex-generals Thein Sein, Thura Shwe Mann, (Thiha Thura) Tin Maung Myint Oo
and Maung Oo have all retired (willingly or not) to take part in the new
parliamentary game, and have all been elected as representatives. How will
the conflicts of interest be worked out between clans, in particular
between the commanders of the 13 military regions, who are still appointed
by central government, and the future (elected) chief ministers of the 14
federal entities, whose territories do not correspond to the military
regions?

The elections have also accentuated profound divisions within the
democratic opposition. The opposition will not be able to unite around
Aung San Suu Kyi and her historical creation, the NLD, which is now
illegal. Other democratic forces have appeared, ignoring Aung San Suu
Kyi’s election boycott and participating in the junta’s electoral game.
There is the National Democratic Force (NDF), whose principal leader Khin
Maung Swe, a former NLD member and political prisoner released in 2008, is
one of the main opposition figures. Other (ethnic) groups have also
distanced themselves from the NLD and its former allies, such as the Shan
Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and the Rakhine Nationalities
Development Party (RNDP), though without adopting a common programme. In
the new (legal) opposition created by this first electoral exercise in 20
years, there is likely to be internal strife between pragmatists (the
newly elected) and idealists (the NLD).

Future internal political debates will also revolve around the power and
role of the new parliamentarians, including those in the rare democratic
or ethnic circles that now have a “legal” basis for expressing themselves,
as a result of taking part in the elections (unlike the NLD). An
opposition force distinct from the NLD is now recognised by the regime,
however heterogeneous and ideologically fractured, and despite the low
number of seats it won in the elections. Activists now have a field of
action. It may be limited but it is legal. Will the military hierarchy –
current and future – decide to work with this new, tolerated (and very
critical) opposition?

The elections of 7 November, though marred by fraud, were neither a step
backwards nor real progress. The opposition will from now on appear more
plural and less dependent on Aung San Suu Kyi, who will struggle to
translate the popular momentum since her release into an effective
unifying strategy, as she did when she was released in 1995 and 2002. She
may now turn out to be more skilful at reconciling an international
community with a Burma that has been ostracised for too long. Its slow
democratisation owes nothing to chance. It is consistent with its recent
history. Burma’s generals seem to be able to understand and use the arcane
strategies of today’s world, adapting them to the political culture of
their own society. They may
____________________________________

December 3, Guardian (UK)
Aung San Suu Kyi has shown that goodness can sometimes be enough - Sarah
Brown

The Burmese opposition leader has made huge personal sacrifices in
delivering her clear, firm call for democracy

This year, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been the patient heroine who has shown
us that sometimes goodness is enough.

Her quiet but firm message could not have been clearer, and her call for
democracy since her election as Burma's leader has tested her country just
as her personal sacrifice has agonised so many.

It has been a privilege for my husband Gordon and I to have supported her
campaign over so many years, and so heartwarming to see her gentle smile
as she emerged from house release to greet the crowds around her home. And
what a joy to see her greet her son Kim for the first time after such an
unbearable long separation.

Let's hope that 2011 brings the democratic change that Burma so
desperately needs for its people – and peace and togetherness for Aung San
Suu Kyi's family.
____________________________________

December 3, Washington Post
Washington's Burma policy isolates ... Washington – Stanley A. Weiss

The recent release of Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, after deeply
flawed elections that allowed the military in Myanmar, also known as
Burma, to tighten its half-century-long grip on the country, raises
numerous political questions: What comes next for her? Will the ruling
junta engage her newly reconstituted National Democracy Party? Will other
political prisoners be freed?

While political headlines are filled with uncertainty, recent business
headlines are not. It was reported last month that Chinese companies had
invested $10 billion in Myanmar's economy from January through May. A
Thai-Italian partnership signed a $10 billion contract Nov. 2 to build a
massive industrial zone on Myanmar's coast - a project that Myanmar's
dictator, Senior Gen. Than Shwe, reportedly views as "an experiment in
opening the largely state-controlled economy." More than 30 companies,
from Russian to Indian to French, are engaged in oil and gas exploration
across Myanmar.

Yet while American companies' interest in doing business in Myanmar has
increased, Reuters reported last month, Western sanctions continue to
prevent American participation.

Washington's claim on the moral high ground is admirable, if one sets
aside the fact that the only people who continue to suffer from Western
sanctions are the 50 million people of Myanmar. After nearly two decades
of U.S.-led sanctions that have sought to isolate Myanmar's military
rulers, it is increasingly clear that the only nation really isolated in
Southeast Asia today is . . . America.

By refusing to engage Myanmar because of its repressive practices,
Washington has forced that country's leaders - who have no idea how to
construct a modern economy - to emulate the nearest successful model:
China. Than Shwe recently said as much, proclaiming his desire to "emulate
China's remarkable . . . transformation into one of the most successful
capitalist stories ever."

A longtime American observer of Myanmar who was recently in Southeast Asia
told me: "A senior official from one country said, 'Our people won't even
buy your jeans anymore, such is the grass-roots backlash. By abandoning
the people of Myanmar to China, you Americans have squandered moral
stature as the world's savior.' "

But that perception could still be changed, he added. "The real issue in
Myanmar lies in the business sector. This is where Yankee ingenuity can
lead by example."

With the election over, America should do four things:

First, recognize that further sanctions mean surrendering Myanmar to
China. There is a good reason sanctions haven't worked: Too many others
don't recognize them. The dissident news agency Mizzima reported in July
that from 1988 to early 2009, Myanmar attracted foreign investment worth
$15 billion. In 2011-12, according to the Irrawaddy news agency, the junta
expects foreign investment to top $16 billion.

For China, which recently approved $90 billion in soft import-export loans
for the junta, Myanmar represents a wealth of natural resources as well as
direct access to the Indian Ocean - which is why Beijing is building oil
and gas pipelines from Kunming, in southwest China, to the port of
Kyaukpyu in Myanmar. By 2012, they will carry 85 percent of China's
imported energy.

If the U.S. response to last month's elections is, as rumored, a ban on
U.S. dollar transactions with Myanmar, "China would have a blank slate in
Myanmar for years to come," says the longtime observer.

Second, focus on capacity building. Myanmar's economy was neglected for
decades. Efforts have been made recently to build up foreign reserves,
improve dialogue with international financial institutions and issue bonds
to finance the nation's 2009-10 budget deficit (a departure from its
practice of printing money).

Washington should work with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) to build capacity in Myanmar - starting with governance training
for newly elected leaders and the revival of the financial sector. ASEAN
has incentive to participate: Myanmar, a member, remains the biggest
hurdle to a U.S.-ASEAN free-trade agreement and to ASEAN's goal of
regional economic integration by 2015.

Third, rebuild the agricultural sector. Seventy percent of Myanmar's
people live in rural areas, and agriculture accounts for 40 to 50 percent
of gross domestic product. Before World War II, Myanmar was the world's
biggest exporter of rice. Misguided government policy has squandered that
legacy. America should work with the U.N. Development Program and ASEAN to
help build a bank-based rural credit system to bring Myanmar's rice
economy into the 21st century.

Fourth, link the West's economic sanctions to Myanmar's economic policies.
Currently, Western sanctions will be lifted only if political benchmarks
are met. Those carrots have proved ineffective. They might be productive,
however, if linked to economic concerns such as respect for private
property, the lifting of arbitrary restrictions on private business and
the creation of a working credit system. Economic benchmarks led to
political change in Korea, Indonesia and Singapore. For Western companies
eager to enter new markets, it could be a huge opportunity.

A century ago, Myanmar's economy was the region's crown jewel. Korea and
even China considered it a role model. The recent election was deeply
flawed, but it provided hope for a new beginning. It's time to end the
U.S. isolation in Southeast Asia and engage Myanmar.

The writer is founding chairman of Business Executives for National
Security, a nonpartisan organization based in Washington.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

December 3, Asian Human Rights Commission
Prisoner attacked over complaint of inhuman conditions

A recent case that has come to attention of the Asian Human Rights
Commission is a stark reminder of the inhuman conditions under which tens
of thousands of prisoners in Burma, many of them prisoners of conscience,
are struggling to survive. According to information obtained and confirmed
by the AHRC, a person who is currently serving his sentence in Pyapon
Prison, Irrawaddy Division was attacked on the night of November 12. While
reading in his cell, some powder was thrown into Shwe Maung's face,
stinging his eyes. Despite calling for assistance he received no medical
attention that night.

It was not until 10am the following morning when he received medical
treatment from the prison doctor but there was no improvement to his eyes.
He was sent to a hospital outside of the prison. According to the doctor
outside, due to the delay in receiving treatment his condition will be
difficult to cure. His cornea has been injured, and his eyes were
completely red and bigger than normal. The doctor could not identify the
substance that caused the injury.

The attack followed a complaint that Shwe Maung made about the conditions
of the prison, to which the authorities transferred him in 2009, and how
he was being treated. When his wife came to see him on 27 October 2010, he
told her about the difficulty he had breathing due to the smell of human
excreta inside his cell. Furthermore, he mentioned how the guards throw
burned excreta in his direction to make him sneeze. In addition, the
guards make noise intentionally at night so that he cannot sleep.

Despite his complaints directed to the warden of the jail, the director of
prisons for Irrawaddy Division, the director general of prisons, and the
minister of home affairs, no action followed--apart, that is, from the
night-time attack. Then, on November 25 the divisional director visited
the prison. But instead of investigating the complaint, he instead had
Shwe Maung brought to the warden's office where he yelled obscenities at
him for making the complaint.

Shwe Maung--who was sentenced to eight years in jail at a closed court
inside the central prison, Insein on 14 November 2008 under section 13(1)
of the Immigration Emergency Provisions Act, upsetting public tranquility
under section 505(b) of the Penal Code and section 295(a), insulting
religion, all for his part in the September 2007 monk-led protests against
military rule in Burma--is also suffering from backaches due to injuries
from torture he suffered in a detention centre prior to his imprisonment,
and from malnourishment.

The appalling conditions inside Burma's prisons have long been a subject
of concern for relatives of detainees and human rights defenders. The AHRC
has in recent years made numerous interventions on the lack of medical
treatment for ailing prisoners. Often ill health is associated with the
transfer of detainees, especially political detainees, to remote prisons
far from loved ones, who are not able to take regularly the food and
medicines that inmates desperately need. Other detainees have suffered
injuries before arrest for which they have not been adequately treated, if
at all, once inside. But this case is particularly diabolical because the
victim has been denied prompt and adequate treatment for what appears to
be a serious injury sustained while in the prison itself, due to an attack
that was apparently carried out by prison guards, or by someone at their
behest.

As Shwe Maung is in the custody of the authorities in Burma, those
authorities have a duty of care for him. Under section 37 of the Prisons
Act, the failure of the jailors to report immediately his calls for
medical attention to the prison doctor amount to a violation of law.
Furthermore, the conditions under which he is being held amount to cruel
and inhuman treatment under the United Nations Convention against Torture,
and he had every reason to complain about them and expect for his
complaint to be taken seriously, in accordance with the UN Standard
Minimum Rules for the Treatment of Prisoners, which in section 36 holds
that,

"(3) Every prisoner shall be allowed to make a request or complaint,
without censorship as to substance but in proper form, to the central
prison administration, the judicial authority or other proper authorities
through approved channels. (4) Unless it is evidently frivolous or
groundless, every request or complaint shall be promptly dealt with and
replied to without undue delay."

Accordingly, the Asian Human Rights Commission calls on all concerned
agencies and individuals, especially the UN Special Rapporteur on human
rights in Myanmar (Burma), the International Committee of the Red Cross,
and diplomatic missions in the country and their governments abroad to
take up the case of Shwe Maung at the highest levels, so that he obtain
the best possible medical treatment; so that his complaints are
investigated and taken seriously; so that the attack on him is
investigated and the perpetrators held to account; so that the divisional
director of prisons is disciplined for his further verbal attack on the
detainee and his lack of action to investigate the complaint, and so that
the conditions at Pyapon Prison--not only for Shwe Maung but for all
detainees--are thoroughly examined and improved so as to come up to
minimum international standards within the shortest possible time.