BurmaNet News, January 14, 2011

[Editor]

January 14, 2011 Issue #4120


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Than Shwe chooses next President—himself
Mizzima: Burma’s Supreme Court agrees to hear NLD appeal against dissolution
DVB: Military draft ‘could spark exodus’

ON THE BORDER
SHAN: Burma Army to set up more battalions on the Thai-Burma border

BUSINESS / TRADE
Xinhua: Japanese companies to run automobile industries in Myanmar
Irrawaddy: Burmese bank rumored on verge of bankruptcy

DRUGS
IRIN: Myanmar: Addicted to poppy farming

INTERNATIONAL
Washington Times: IAEA seeks permission from Myanmar for nuke inspectors
to visit

OPINION / OTHER
Independent (UK): The Suu Kyi effect: A new age of quiet defiance – Phoebe
Kennedy
Asia Tribune: Burma’s first parliamentary assembly and the question of
self-determination – Zin Linn





____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 14, Irrawaddy
Than Shwe chooses next President—himself

Burma's military junta strongman, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, has reportedly drawn
up a draft outlining his lineup of the future ruling hierarchy, some two
weeks ahead of the opening session of Parliament on Jan. 31, according to
sources in Burma’s administrative capital, Naypyidaw.

Than Shwe has reportedly penciled himself in as President of the Republic
of the Union of Myanmar.

However, the junta’s No.2, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, is reportedly set to
retire from office for reasons of ill-health.

The military regime's Secretary-1 ex-Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo is reported to
be one of two vice presidents. The junta’s No.3, ex-Gen Shwe Mann is to be
appointed as the Chairman of the Union Hluttaw [parliament], one of the
most powerful posts under the 2008 Constitution.

And Prime Minister Thein Sein, who is also the chairman of the junta’s
proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), will hold
onto the party leadership position, the sources said.

Lt-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, the current Joint-Chief of Staff (Army, Navy, Air
Force) is reportedly set to become the Commander-in-Chief, while Maj-Gen
Soe Win, the Chief of the Bureau of Special Operations-6, is to be
appointed Deputy Commander-in-Chief.

Lt-Gen Myint Aung, who was reportedly in line to be Commander-in-Chief of
the Armed Forces, will now take the position of Minister of Defense, while
Lt-Gen Ko Ko, who was said to be in line to be Deputy Commander-in-Chief,
is now set to become the Minister of Home Affairs.

Despite the authenticity of the leaked information and the reliability of
its sources, The Irrawaddy cautions that any speculation of the divisions
of power in Burma is very difficult to ascertain as every and any decision
can be taken, modified or reversed at any time by one man, the dictator
Than Shwe.

In late August, an extensive military reshuffle took place when several
older military generals were replaced with younger ones, starting with the
military’s third-highest ranking position of Joint-Chief of Staff. At that
time, the junta’s top two generals, Than Shwe and Maung Aye, reportedly
resigned from the military. Later, they appeared in public still in
military dress and addressed as Commander-in-Chief and
Deputy-Commander-in- Chief of the Armed Forces.

However, military sources in Naypyidaw said Than Shwe reportedly told his
spiritual leaders and close friends and relatives in July that he wanted
to take a rest from leading the country. His wife Kyaing Kyaing disagreed
that he should retire and argued that he still had “a lot of work to do
for the country.”

“What we know is that he is not fit and needs to rest,” said a military
source. “But his family won't let him—especially his wife, his daughters
and his favorite grandson. They simply can't face losing power.”

The official added: “You have to understand that our leadership prides
himself on being unpredictable.”
____________________________________

January 14, Mizzima News
Burma’s Supreme Court agrees to hear NLD appeal against dissolution – Kyaw
Kha

Chiang Mai – Burma’s Supreme Court in Naypyidaw on Thursday agreed to hear
the National League for Democracy’s final appeal against the dissolution
of the party for failing to register prior to the 2010 election.

NLD lawyers Nyan Win, Kyi Win and Kyaw Hoe submitted the appeal signed by
NLD General-Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi.

“Yesterday, we had to await the court’s decision for about two hours, and
then the court agreed to hear the appeal’, lawyer Kyaw Hoe told Mizzima.
‘The court gave us a registration number for the lawsuit and said they
would inform us when the appeal will be heard’.

The previous NLD appeal against dissolution was rejected by the Supreme
Court on November 22, 2010. The NLD has one more chance to appeal to the
court.

The NLD decided not to re-register as a political party in protest against
the general elections in November. The junta’s Union Election Commission
officially declared the NLD dissolved on September 14, 2010, citing the
electoral laws.

When the NLD won more than 83 percent of parliamentary seats in the 1990
election, the junta refused to honor the results and transfer power to the
NLD.

In the recent general elections in November, the junta-backed Union
Solidarity and Development Party won 882 out of a total 1,154 seats (76.5
percent) in all three legislative bodies.

Several opposition parties have lodged poll complaints with the Election
Commission against many MPs-elect of the USDP, claiming vote fixing and
other irregularities.

____________________________________

January 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
Military draft ‘could spark exodus’ – Aye Nai

Mandatory army service for men and women above the age of 18 could cause
teenagers to the flee the country in droves, Burmese are warning.

The net effect could be that the pariah state loses some of its most able
youngsters, a schoolteacher in Mandalay told DVB. “It will cause more
brain drain as many youths have already left the country. No one wants to
do that [serve in the army]”.

Once seen as an honourable profession, the reputation of Burma’s nearly
500,000-strong army has nosed-dived in recent decades both within the
country and internationally, and a debate is now underway over whether the
UN should investigate it for war crimes.

Burma’s is one of the largest standing armies in Southeast Asia, despite
the country having no external enemies. Regardless, the ruling junta
continues to aggressively expand troop numbers, and the recent draft law
will snare any male between 18 and 45 and any female between 18 and 35 for
two years of service. Draft dodgers could face up to five years in prison.

“If it is case of war with another country, it would be a different
matter. But if you are forced to do military service to kill each other
[your own countrymen], who would dare join the army?” said a young Burmese
man living in Singapore.

Around 40 percent of government spending goes to the military, while three
percent goes to the woefully undernourished healthcare and education
sectors combined.

“I have sold my plot of land and will work in [Thailand] even if as
refugees with my family members,” said another youth from Three Pagodas
Pass, on the Thai-Burma border. “All my young friends have decided to do
so
 even if I am ruined, I don’t want to be a soldier.”

Lower-ranking troops are thought to earn only around $US10 a month, whilst
being forced to provide their own food under a ‘self-sufficiency’ drive.
Some escape to Thailand and end up in one of the many refugee camps along
the border.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 14, Shan Herald Agency for News
Burma Army to set up more battalions on the Thai-Burma border – Hseng Khio
Fah

The Burma Army is reportedly going to set up a new town and 3 more
battalions in Shan State East's Mongton Township bordering with Thailand's
Chiangmai province, where the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Shan
State Army (SSA) 'South' are active, according to local sources.

The location of the new town will be at Monghta village tract, west of
Mongton, 44 kilometers north of Chiangmai's Wiang Haeng district. This
project was announced when Brig-Gen Than Htun Oo, Commander of the
Triangle Region Command, visited the areas recently, said Mongton
residents.

"He [the commander] told that Monghta village will be developed into a
town and will place at least 3 permanent battalions there and urge people
to relocate there," a resident said. "No one gave him [the commander] any
response on that day 12 January."

According to him, a plot of land will be sold at Kyat 45,000 (U $ 50). The
commander was reported to have arrived in the area since 11 January and
was still said to be touring in their bases along the Thai-Burma border
until yesterday.

A Thai-Burma border watcher analyst on the subject of the planned project
that the military junta is likely to block the route of the UWSA fighters
because Monghta, where the project will taken place, is positioned between
operational areas of UWSA's 778th Brigade and 772nd Brigade and also
serves as the gateway to the anti-Naypyitaw Shan State Army (SSA) 'South"
base Loi Taileng.

"It will be easy for them [the junta] to watch over all the movements not
only of the Wa but also the SSA fighters if they can hold this point plus
Thai army activities," he said.

A similar project was also reported to be constructed in Shan State
South's areas between the Shan State Army (SSA) North bases in the west
and United Wa State Army (UWSA) bases in the east, in December. It was the
installation of artillery and infantry units in areas where the two groups
[SSA 'North' and Wa] that are at loggerheads with the junta are active.

Currently, the number of reports of the Burma Army's expansion in the
ethnic states, especially in armed groups controlled areas, has increased.
Nevertheless, many think that there as yet any sign of a major operation,
but believe it will be after a new government is installed. The first
session of Burma's new parliament will be convened on 31 January.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

January 14, Xinhua
Japanese companies to run automobile industries in Myanmar

Yangon – A total of 17 Japanese automobile companies will run automobile
industries in Myanmar in cooperation with local counterparts covering the
sectors of manufacturing, trading and production of automobile
accessories, the local Biweekly Eleven News reported Friday.

The Japanese automobile companies include Honda Motor Co.,Ltd, Fujiko ,
Honda Cars Mie-kita, Auto Mall, Over Racing Project, Gild Design Factory,
Hattori Naoki and Suzaka Carry Service companies as well as Suzuka Chamber
of Commerce and Industry.

Led by Suzuka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Japanese automakers from
the 17 companies will hold discussions on the move with Myanmar
entrepreneurs at the office of the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers
of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) on Jan. 18, the report said.

Myanmar mostly imports Chinese and Japanese joint-venture cars and
automobile spare parts for use in the country.

Currently, Myanmar is planning to produce HiAce as well as LiteAce
automobile cars of one to two and a half tons with 80 percent of the
engine and spare parts being imported, the report added.

Meanwhile, India's largest truck and bus manufacturing plant, Ta Ta
Motors, was launched in the Magway Industrial Zone in Magway, central part
of Myanmar in cooperation with Myanmar's Ministry of Industry-2 in
December last year.

Under a contract with Myanmar, the Indian plant is to assemble about 1,100
trucks of 20, 25 and 30 tons and 1,000 Nano luxury cars annually.

Of them, Nano luxury cars, the products of Ta Ta Motors, will be
introduced in Myanmar's automobile market later this year.

According to local report, altogether 82,785 motor vehicles have been
produced by Myanmar's 18 industrial zones up to June, 2010.

____________________________________

January 14, Irrawaddy
Burmese bank rumored on verge of bankruptcy – Yeni

Cooperative Bank, Burma's second-largest privately owned financial
institution, is fighting for its survival as depositors rush to withdraw
their savings amid rumors that the bank's owner is involved in a business
dispute with a crony of one of the ruling regime's most powerful generals.

According to Rangoon-based business sources, the bank's reserves have
dwindled to almost nothing, and its chairman, Khin Maung Aye, is
struggling to secure credit from other banks to stay afloat.

Among the banks that Khin Maung Aye has turned to are Kanbawza Bank, owned
by Aung Ko Win, a close associate of Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, the Burmese
junta's second in command, and Myawaddy Bank, owned by the military-run
Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited.

“None of them will lend him anything. We are very concerned that
Cooperative Bank is on the verge of collapse because of its extremely weak
financial position,” said a source close to the banks.

However, there have also been reports that some of Burma's senior leaders
have stepped in to prevent the failure of the bank. Specifically, former
Gen Thein Sein, the country's prime minister, and former Maj-Gen Tin Htut,
the minister of the Co-operatives and patron of the Cooperative Bank , who
are said to be close to Khin Maung Aye, are believed to have intervened on
the bank's behalf.

The same reports added, however, that Khin Maung Aye remains under
pressure, with some other leading generals pushing for his resignation as
the bank's chairman and as the secretary general of the Myanmar Bank
Association.

According to Burma's Central Bank, Cooperative Bank held around 35 billion
kyat (US $42 million) in deposits before the crisis. However, sources said
that depositors began quietly withdrawing their money from the bank in
mid-December after it was rumored that Khin Maung Aye was on bad terms
with former Lt-Gen Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo, the regime's secretary 1
and Trade Council chairman.

Sources said that Khin Maung Aye's troubles started when he complained
late last year about Tin Aung Myint Oo's decision to give licenses to Asia
World, a company owned by his business associate Tun Myint Naing (aka
Steven Law), the son of former drug lord Lo Hsing Han, to operate ground
handling and passenger services at the country's two international
airports in Rangoon and Mandalay.

Tin Aung Myint Oo has also recently awarded several other major contracts
to Asia World, including  for construction of hydro-power plants, jetties
in Rangoon port, airports, and roads and bridges.

“Khin Maung Aye openly asked Tin Aung Myint Oo to give the ground handling
and passenger services licenses to MAI [Myanmar Airways International],
which is partly owned by Cooperative Bank,” a source said, adding that
this prompted the regime's secretary 1 to urge some action against Khin
Maung Aye in meetings with other top generals in Napyidaw.

According to business sources, the Trade Council has been pushing Khin
Maung Aye to sell Cooperative Bank's shares in MAI and hand control of the
airline to Kanbawza Bank, which bought the former national airline early
last year in partnership with Cooperative Bank and Tun Foundation Bank.
Meanwhile, Khin Maung Aye's construction company, Kaung Myanmar Associates
Construction, has also lost contracts to build state guest houses in
Naypyidaw.

As Khin Maung Aye's fortunes continue to plummet, business people are
watching the market closely to see what impact all of this is having.

One effect so far, according to business sources in Rangoon, has been a
rise in demand for gold, as businessmen who have withdrawn their money
from Cooperative Bank buy the precious metal for safekeeping.

“Demand has immediately jumped up,” said the owner of a gold shop in
Rangoon. “When I ask the customers, I found that many were businessmen who
had withdrawn their money from Cooperative Bank.”

The price of gold in the Rangoon market on Friday was 634,500 kyat
($761.70) per kyat-thar (0.036 ounce).

Another reason for the increased demand for gold, said some observers, was
that many business people are buying it as a hedge against a further
decline in the value of the US dollar against the kyat. One US dollar is
currently selling for 833 kyat.

Yan Pai and Aung Thet Wine also contributed this article.

____________________________________
DRUGS

January 13, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs - Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)
Myanmar: Addicted to poppy farming

Shan State – Poverty and lucrative profits make poppy cultivation
increasingly attractive to farmers who would otherwise produce legal crops
to feed their families and make a living, say experts.

"More of the rural poor continue to be drawn into participating in the
illicit drug trade as a last means of finding money to feed their
families," Jason Eligh, Country Representative for the UN Office on Drugs
and Crime (UNODC) Myanmar, told IRIN.

Shan State, 400km north of the capital, Yangon, between Myanmar, Laos and
Thailand, produces more than 90 percent of all opium in Myanmar, an
estimated 35,000 tons in 2010, according to UNODC.

UNODC is the only international agency directly involved in supporting
different crops in poppy cultivation areas, with three agriculture
projects in southern Shan State trying to reach 100,000 people. However,
much more needs to be done to stop farmers from reverting to opium
production, said Eligh.

"UNODC wants to see a strong alternative development response, one that
includes market access, community mobilization, access to credit, improved
technology and better overall infrastructure in rural areas."

Cash crop

In 2010, a higher proportion of farmers' income came from poppies than in
previous years, reversing a trend of steady decline in the past six years.

Between 2003 and 2009, the proportion of total household income from
poppies fell from 70 to 20 percent, according to a December 2010 UNODC
report.

In 2010, however, high prices paid for poppy in Myanmar and low food
security throughout the country meant income from the seed contributed to
43 percent of total household income in Shan State, the report stated.
About a quarter of the state's population was involved, estimate aid
agencies.

Though prices at source (farm-gate) for poppy fell marginally in 2010 from
2009, opium overall remained lucrative at US$305 per kilo. Poppy farmers
can earn 13 times more money cultivating poppies than rice, making poppies
the cash crop of choice for most, based on the UNODC report.

Farmers forced out of poppy cultivation are having problems growing other
food to survive. "I grow enough vegetables to keep my family going, but
that is all," U Tin Kyi told IRIN.

U Tin Kyi grew poppy seeds to supplement his income until authorities
destroyed his fields two years ago. Like many of his neighbours in this
hilltop village, U Tin Kyi has little extra income. "The fuel cost to get
to the market outweighs any profit I would make from selling vegetables,"
he told IRIN.

Eradication efforts

Poppy cultivation continued to rise in Myanmar in 2010, despite an
official 15-year drug elimination plan developed in the late 1990s. In
2009, the authorities initiated the final five-year phase of this plan.

Government figures claim 8,268 hectares of poppy-cultivating land were
eradicated in 2010, a 102 percent increase on the previous year.

But other groups calculate that Myanmar's poppy cultivation area and yield
actually increased during this period.

"In 2010 we estimate that there [was] 20 percent more area under opium
poppy cultivation, a 46 percent increase in average opium yield, and a 17
percent increase in the number of households involved in domestic opium
poppy cultivation," said Eligh of UNODC.

In northern Shan State, in 2008, government figures showed 25 percent of
poppy fields were destroyed, but a 2010 report [
http://www.womenofburma.org/Report/PoisonedHillsFinal.pdf ] by Palaung
Women's Organization (PWO), an NGO based in Mae Sot along the Thai-Myanmar
border, stated only 11 percent of poppy fields had been eradicated.

Government anti-drug teams were only destroying easily visible poppy
fields and filing false eradication data to the police headquarters, the
report said. At the same time, farmers were forced to pay taxes to
continue growing poppies.

In Mantong village in northern Shan State, PWO estimated the government
collected approximately $37,000 in poppy taxes in 2008. A selection of
IRIN reports are posted on ReliefWeb. Find more IRIN news and analysis at
http://www.irinnews.org

Une sélection d'articles d'IRIN sont publiés sur ReliefWeb. Trouvez
d'autres articles et analyses d'IRIN sur http://www.irinnews.org

This article does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations
or its agencies. Refer to the IRIN copyright page for conditions of use.

Cet article ne reflète pas nécessairement les vues des Nations Unies. Voir
IRIN droits d'auteur pour les conditions d'utilisation.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 14, The Washington Times
IAEA seeks permission from Myanmar for nuke inspectors to visit – Ashish
Kumar Sen

The United Nations' nuclear watchdog has asked Myanmar's reclusive
military junta to allow the agency's inspectors to visit amid growing
concern that the Southeast Asian nation's rulers may be trying to build a
nuclear weapon.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Department of Safeguards
made the request, according to diplomatic sources who spoke on the
condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the matter.

A signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Myanmar has concluded
a safeguards agreement with the IAEA with a Small Quantities Protocol
(SQP). The SQP is designed for states that have little or no nuclear
material and no nuclear material in facilities.

"Based on this agreement, Myanmar would be expected to inform the IAEA no
later than six months prior to operating a nuclear facility," said
Giovanni Verlini, an IAEA spokesman based in Vienna, Austria. "If Myanmar
were to operate such a facility, it would be subject to IAEA safeguards
inspections, like similar facilities in other states."

Mr. Verlini declined to confirm the agency's request to the regime.

Myanmar's nuclear program reportedly is managed by the Directorate of
Defense Services Science and Technology Research Center (DDSSTRC), which
is located in May Myo at the Defense Services Technological Academy.

The junta denies that it is trying to build a nuclear weapon.

Robert Kelley, a former director of the IAEA, expressed skepticism and
said inspectors must visit Myanmar. "The legal question is 'Where do they
go and on what basis?' If Burma says 'no,' there is no legal basis to
force them right now," he said in a phone interview. Myanmar also is known
as Burma.

In its efforts to promote wider adherence to its safeguards system, the
IAEA has invited Myanmar to conclude an Additional Protocol to its
safeguards agreement and amend its SQP in line with the revised text
approved by the IAEA Board of Governors in September 2005.

The Additional Protocol would grant the IAEA expanded rights of access to
information and sites, Mr. Verlini said.

On an earlier visit to Myanmar, IAEA inspectors had asked to see the
factories where equipment for suspected facilities is manufactured, but
ended up seeing only a university physics laboratory.

According to a 2004 U.S. Embassy cable, leaked by the anti-secrecy website
WikiLeaks, a businessman said he had heard rumors that a nuclear reactor
was being built near Minbu, in central Magway Division on the Irawaddy
River in Myanmar.

Last summer, Maj. Sai Thein Win, who defected from Myanmar, told a
dissident group that the junta was trying to build a nuclear weapon. Maj.
Win had worked in factories that manufactured prototype components for
missile and nuclear programs.

A report, commissioned by the Democratic Voice of Burma, said that while
the military may not be successful in its efforts, "the intent is clear."
It said its analysis led to "only one conclusion: this technology is only
for nuclear weapons and not civilian use or nuclear power."

Mr. Kelley reviewed the data.

"We have satellite imagery of a mining-related facility in roughly the
place identified by the source. I think it is likely a uranium mill, but
to stake IAEA reputation on this is a bit shaky," Mr. Kelley said.

"I know a number of other sites I suspect and would recommend one if
asked, but I have not been asked,” he said. "I would expect the team will
probably find nothing if they go, especially if they only visit the
headquarters, a university or the factory."

Western officials suspect North Korea is assisting Myanmar's nuclear program.

The 2004 cable noted that there was no direct evidence of this alleged
cooperation, however, "rumors of ongoing construction of a nuclear reactor
are surprisingly consistent and observations of activity 
 appear to be
increasing, as are alleged sightings of North Korean 'technicians' inside
Burma."

Another leaked cable, written in November 2009 by the top U.S. official in
Yangon, described Myanmar-North Korea cooperation as "opaque."

"Something is certainly happening; whether that something includes 'nukes'
is a very open question which remains a very high priority for Embassy
reporting," the cable said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 14, Independent (UK)
The Suu Kyi effect: A new age of quiet defiance – Phoebe Kennedy

Two months after her release, Burma's most famous dissident is inspiring a
shift among protesters.

Rangoon – Her release brought joy and a rare glimpse of hope to the
long-suffering people of Burma. Now, two months after democracy heroine
Aung San Suu Kyi was freed from house arrest, the euphoria has faded, but
hope remains.

On the surface, little has changed. After a November election boycotted by
Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party and decried as
rigged by other opposition politicians, the Burmese junta is pressing
ahead with its plans to create a "discipline-flourishing democracy".

A new parliament will convene at the end of January with the ruling
generals firmly in control. A quarter of the seats in the two-house Union
Parliament are reserved for military nominees. Of the seats contested in
the election, 80 per cent went to the junta's proxy, the Union Solidarity
and Development Party.

Enriched by rising revenues from gas deals with Thailand and China, the
Burmese military's five-decade grip on power appears stronger than ever.
Perhaps this confidence led the ruling general, Than Shwe, to release Ms
Suu Kyi from house arrest on 13 November, a week after the elections.
After a highly charged public address to thousands of her supporters, "The
Lady" as 65-year-old Ms Suu Kyi is known, has retreated into her party
headquarters to consult with colleagues, activists, diplomats and expert
advisers.

To the generals, the situation seems controlled and contained. But young
democracy activists insist Ms Suu Kyi's release has motivated a new
generation of Burmese to stand up to military oppression. "Before we saw
her, we felt directionless and afraid," said Thar Nge, a 27-year-old
journalist and community activist in Burma's main city, Rangoon. "Now we
have a little more courage. We have learned this from her."

Thar Nge was among 300 young people who met Ms Suu Kyi at her party's
offices at the end of December. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate encouraged
them to form networks, in communities and online, to improve education and
social conditions for the Burmese youth.

But many, including Thar Nge, read more into the message. "We are forming
new networks not just for social work but also for our political work," he
added. "We were below the surface. Now we are coming back to the surface
and are becoming active again. We all want democracy; I think it will
happen step by step but finally there will be a revolution."

Facebook pages such as Myanmar Story Teller are evolving from simple
social networks into forums for political activism and discussion. The
internet played a role in the so-called "Saffron Revolution" of 2007, when
monks led tens of thousands of Burmese on to the streets to protest
against the junta.

Those demonstrations were crushed, but online videos and accounts of the
crackdown played a key role in documenting the violence in a country where
traditional media is heavily censored.

And although very few people in impoverished Burma have access to the
internet, the innate democracy of such networks makes it difficult to
clamp down on them, Thar Nge said. "In networks, everyone has a role,
everyone is equal. There are no leaders. It is not easy for the government
to break us down."

Ms Suu Kyi's role in this is not clear, other than as a much-needed
figurehead for a democracy movement that lost direction during her most
recent, seven-year stint during a house arrest that spanned two decades.

"Since she was released, I've seen her three times," said 28-year-old poet
and blogger Moe Hlaing Nya. "We don't think the situation depends only on
her, we know we have to work by ourselves. But now we have seen her we are
inspired again. Now all the young people are behind her." Ms Suu Kyi is
also working through more traditional means. Efforts are being made to
overturn a ban on the NLD, which was forced to disband officially when it
boycotted last year's election. The party said the poll could not be
considered fair or free while its leader and more than 2,000 other
political prisoners remained behind bars. Lawyers are preparing an appeal
to overturn a court ruling that enforced the party's dissolution. Last
November a similar appeal was dismissed.

And the containment of Ms Suu Kyi that the generals banked on may not last
long. In the coming weeks, she plans to head upcountry on a tour of the
ethnic minority areas close to the Thai border, where armed groups have
been battling the government since Burma won independence from Britain in
1948. Thousands of supporters are expected to turn out to see her, and
such a roadshow – particularly in those areas hostile to military rule –
would displease the regime. Any perceived misdemeanour on the part of Ms
Suu Kyi may prompt her re-arrest.

The last time she was released, in 2002, Ms Suu Kyi and her party
travelled to the country. In May 2003, in the northern town of Depayin,
her convoy was attacked by government mobs and more than 70 of her
supporters were killed. The authorities then detained her again, "for her
own protection".

Thar Nge said: "If she goes on a tour, I want to follow her, both as a
supporter and as a witness. If they try to harm her again, I will tell the
world what happened."

Wooing the rebels – after a broken promise

Aung San Suu Kyi hopes to visit the Karen, Shan and Mon ethnic minority
groups, elements of which have been battling the junta for decades. The
Karen have been fighting since Burma gained independence in 1948.

Her visit upcountry would not be without its complications. While the
beleaguered Karen – whose fighters have lost control of vast swaths of
territory – support Ms Suu Kyi and campaign for democratic change, they do
not feel the same way about her late father.

General Aung San, the national independence hero, initially fought for the
Japanese against the British, which were backed by Karen fighters. When
the general took power, he did not grant the group the autonomy they were
promised by the colonial rulers.

In Karen territory inside Burma and in the refugee camps along the Thai
border where up to 145,000 displaced Burmese live, you will hear harsh
words spoken of the general. But with Burmese troops accused of rape and
torture as they push ever deeper into Karen territory, the group have
adopted the pragmatic position of supporting their enemy's opponent.
Senior aides to Ms Suu Kyi say she will be warmly welcomed if the generals
allow her to visit.

Andrew Buncombe
____________________________________

January 14, Asia Tribune
Burma’s first parliamentary assembly and the question of
self-determination – Zin Linn

Burma’s new legislative body is to convene for the first time on January
31, nearly two months after the military-ruled nation held a widely
denounced election, the military junta’s media announced on last Monday.
The new parliament, it is expected, will honor the final steps of its
so-called seven-step roadmap to democracy.

The two-chamber national parliament will meet in the capital Naypyidaw,
while new regional legislatures too will convene at the same time,
government-controlled television reported, quoting an order from junta
chief Senior General Than Shwe.

The new parliament was elected in polls held last November, which was
criticized as sham by the opposition parties, including the Nobel Peace
Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who was recently freed from house arrest.
The vote was widely alleged by democracy activists and Western governments
as of fraud and bullying as well as barred the opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi and her party from participating.

According to a brief announcement by junta’s media, the country’s 1,154
lawmakers will assemble in a gigantic new building in the remote capital
of Naypyitaw. It will be the first parliamentary session since a 1988
assembly in the old capital of Rangoon (Yangon).

The ruling junta’s military-backed party, the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP), claimed more than 76 percent of seats in the
two-house of the Union Parliament in November 7 polls, the country’s first
in two decades.

According to new laws announced by head of the junta in November, members
of parliaments will not be permitted the freedom of expression if their
presentations jeopardize national security or the unity of the country.
Any protest inside the parliament is carrying a punishment of up to two
years imprisonment. Anyone apart from lawmakers that enters parliament
while it is in session has to face a one-year prison term.

The election results give surety that the military, which has ruled Burma
since 1962, will continue to exercise power.

A quarter of the seats in parliament were already reserved for the armed
forces, which together with its political proxy USDP will have a happy
majority for passing laws and electing the president. Under the junta’s
2008 constitution, parliament need not meet more than once a year.
Dissatisfaction is spreading all through the society due to the flawed
electoral process.

Up to now, it is unclear what function Than Shwe plans to play for his role.

The country’s last elections in 1990 were overwhelmingly won by the
opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The military refused to hand
over of power and locked up Aung San Suu Kyi for most of the past 21
years, and released her a week after the controversial elections. Her
Party has been disbanded and has not been allowed sitting in the proposed
new parliament. She was under detention for more than a decade and a half
and was freed on 13 November, 2010.

Simultaneously, the three ceasefire armed groups have challenged Burma
Army that pressured them to transform into Border Guard Forces (BGFs). For
that reason, the groups have come around declining BGF plan in order to
avoid Burmese junta’s oppressive strategies. The UWSA, the NDAA, and the
Shan State Army-North are along with the other armed ethnic groups which
are defying the military regime’s demands on them to join its Border Guard
Force (BGF). Actually, the junta’s BGF program intended to win over the
ceasefire groups by laying down their arms.

Coincidentally, the United Wa State Army (UWSA)’s political wing United Wa
State Party (UWSP) has drawn another contradictive proposal which includes
a point to demand for a state with the Right of Self Determination from
the new government, quoting UWSP sources Shan Herald Agency for News said.
The said proposal was drawn at the UWSP’s 5th annual district level party
congress which is being held in Mongmai, 170 km north of its main base
Panghsang from 20 to 29 December.

The UWSP’s new proposal which is to be presented to the new parliamentary
government planned to be held on 31 January, 2011. In the proposal, UWSP
says that their armed force will remain in the Wa State to defend their
independence. Although they will not secede from the Union, they will
steadfastly demand for a state with the Right of Self Determination from
the upcoming government, upholding a policy of non-alignment and
neutrality.

Subsequently, at the meeting of the 3rd Central Standing Committee (CSC)
of the 14th KNU Congress was successfully held from December 14 to 19,
2010, according to the Karen National Union (Supreme Headquarters) source.
KNU adopted the four guiding principles delineated by the late heroic
leader Saw Ba U Gyi. The four principles are “Surrender is out of the
question”, “We shall retain our arms”, “Recognition of Karen State must be
complete” and “We shall decide our own political destiny.”

KNU says in its statement dated 23 December 2010: “As the parliament and
government that would come into being according to the SPDC Road Map were
for realization of the 2008 Constitution, the meeting adopted the view
that instead of resolving the problems faced by Burma, it would create
more insecurity and conflicts, especially in the political and military
fields.”

As the self-styled new civilian government is the rebirth of the same
military itself, the ethnic autonomy seems to be out of question.
Correspondingly, national reconciliation proposal by Burma’s Nobel
laureate has also to be faced the same destiny. Thus, people of Burma have
to continue struggle for national reconciliation plus self-determination.

Obviously, Burma’s military dictators have held the recent polls, not to
restore freedom, justice and equality, but to resume the military
dictatorial power and to monopolize the country’s all-out economic
opportunities.

However, the first issue the new government has to decide the question of
self-determination. The ethnic parties are not only representing in
parliament they also demand for autonomy even outside the parliament.