BurmaNet News, January 28, 2011

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January 28, 2011 Issue #4129

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar Supreme Court rejects lawsuit seeking restoration of Suu Kyi's
political party
Times (UK): Boys the fodder in Burma's dirty war
DVB: Media laws obscuring parliament
Mizzima: Win Tin, environmentalists alarmed by Myitsone Dam
Myanmar Times: Inexperience behind highway deaths: police

ON THE BORDER
Epoch Times (US): Burma’s landmine epidemic

BUSINESS / TRADE
New Light of Myanmar: Myanmar Special Economic Zone Law enacted

HEALTH
DVB: Burma’s health woes traversing borders

OPINION / OTHER
Financial Times (UK): Burma: open for business? – Tim Johnston
DPA: Myanmar parliaments to usher in new era of military rule – Ko Ko and
Peter Janssen
Irrawaddy: Junta will tighten grip on NLD – Wai Moe

INTERVIEW
Mizzima: DVB plans to cut radio programmes, expand TV – Tun Tun with Aye
Chan Naing






____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 28, The Associated Press
Myanmar Supreme Court rejects lawsuit seeking restoration of Suu Kyi's
political party

Yangon, Myanmar — Myanmar's highest court declined Friday to hear a case
filed by pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi seeking to overturn the
government's dissolution of her political party.

The Supreme Court ruled the appeal had no legal basis, said Suu Kyi's
lawyer, Nyan Win.

Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party lost its legal status last
year after it failed to reregister in order to take part in general
elections, complaining conditions set by the junta were unfair and
undemocratic.

Her lawyers claimed the move was unlawful because the new Election
Commission has no right to dissolve parties that were registered under a
different Election Commission in 1990. A military-sponsored party won an
overwhelming majority in last November's election, which critics claim was
unfair.

Friday's ruling was unsurprising, since Myanmar's courts invariably adhere
to the junta's policies, especially on political matters.

"We have actually exhausted all legal channels regarding the case," said
Nyan Win.

The last election, in 1990, was won by Suu Kyi's party, but the army would
not let it take power and refused to convene parliament.

The court's ruling came just ahead of the convening of the new
parliamentary session, the first since 1988, when a military crackdown on
pro-democracy demonstrations installed the current junta.

The 435 members of the lower house and 224 of the upper house will attend
the opening Monday in a massive new building constructed after the capital
was moved from Yangon in 2005. Five lower house seats remain empty because
voting was cancelled in five politically unstable constituencies.
____________________________________

January 28, The Times (UK)
Boys the fodder in Burma's dirty war – Michael Sheridan

THE face is that of a nine-year-old boy but his eyes reflect the burden of
following his father through the Burmese jungle with an assault rifle.

The child, whose name is Po, was caught up in fresh fighting last week
between the Burmese junta and rebels of the Karen ethnic group. His
father, Saw Mun Sah, is a veteran of the Karen's long fight for
independence, which has just entered a desperate new phase.

"My son is too young but he wants to be a soldier," he said. "He can learn
how to shoot the gun even though he is just a kid. If the enemy attacks,
he knows how to shoot back."

Their enemy has attacked in force over the past few weeks. The searing arc
of mortar shells and the flash and distant boom of artillery are nightly
occurrences for refugees watching from camps across the border in
Thailand. The Karen, a rag-tag guerilla army, are outgunned.

"My wife stays on the other side," said the boy's father. "He doesn't want
to go back to stay with his mum. We will continue with our struggle until
things get back to normal."

There is a new normality in Burma. The release of Aung San Suu Kyi, the
opposition leader, late last year won international credit for the
generals. Its new parliament, chosen in flawed elections, is about to form
a civilian government. There are calls to lift Western sanctions.
Confident of its political position, the regime has launched an offensive
to defeat the last bands of ethnic rebels defying its calls to enlist in a
government-sponsored "border force".

The rebels face annihilation, while Suu Kyi struggles to reconcile the
deep divisions between the rebels and the country's Burman majority. For
the army, it is a win-win equation.

The ferocity of the fighting has been captured in rare images of Burma's
hidden war smuggled out by the Karen in recent days. In footage handed to
a husband-and-wife video team, Steve and Am Sandford, the rebels are
carrying a dead comrade away from a skirmish. Other video shows the bodies
of half a dozen guerillas who, it is claimed, were shot dead by the army
in betrayal of a truce.

The Sandfords, who found the boy soldier on a clandestine trek inside the
war zone, also discovered hundreds of civilians fleeing their villages to
wade across a river to sanctuary in Thailand.

Until last week the raw images of the six-decade-old war had been eclipsed
by photographs of a smiling Suu Kyi greeting happy crowds in Rangoon. But
less than an hour's flight away from the capital, a jungle conflict is
raging and the young on both sides are paying a heavy price.

The stress of war is telling on the Burmese army, too. It has resorted to
recruiting underage boys into the ranks - two-thirds of them either
press-ganged or tricked into signing up, according to an authoritative
assessment.

International officials have been trying - with limited success - to get
senior officers to stop the abuse and to discharge young teenage boys. In
some cases, terrified boys who have run away from battle have been caught
and charged with desertion, even though they are too young to serve
legally as soldiers.

There is also compelling evidence that the army is making civilians toil
as porters for units on the battlefield.

Hundreds of criminals have been shipped out of the country's biggest
prison in Rangoon to the eastern battlefronts to carry supplies and
ammunition, according to exile groups.

In the worst alleged abuses, civilians have been forced at gunpoint to
walk ahead of troops as human shields in areas infested with landmines.

In a Thai hospital, one man who recently escaped from Burma described how
one of his legs was blown off as he tried to flee. He was rescued and
taken across the river. But he could face deportation back to Burma once
he recovers. Last year more than 110,000 villagers in eastern Burma were
displaced through military action, according to the Thailand Burma Border
Consortium, a monitoring group.

Whatever the new politics in Rangoon, their daily lives are as precarious
as ever.

____________________________________

January 28, Democratic Voice of Burma
Media laws obscuring parliament – Ahunt Phone Myat

Domestic and foreign news outlets are yet to receive any response on
whether they can attend the first session of parliament next week where
strict rules block possession of all electronic equipment in the building.

The 1000-plus MPs due for Monday’s sitting have been warned that no
cameras, bags or mobile phones can pass through security at the Union
Parliament building in the capital, Naypyidaw.

Burmese and international journalists say they have so far not been given
any word on whether they can attend the session, despite Burma’s
information minister, Kyaw Hsan, saying on 17 January that they would be
able to cover the event.

A number had applied for passes to cover the session. One foreign
correspondent told DVB on condition of anonymity that when he had
contacted the ministry, they drew a blank. “They said they didn’t know yet
[whether permission would be granted]. Some journalists have booked rooms
at hotels in Naypyidaw and they’ll have to cancel their stay if they don’t
get permission.”

He added that their last resort would be to simply wait in front of the
parliament building and speak to MPs as they exited.

Burma has some of the world’s strictest media laws, and bans filming of
so-called sensitive material that would include parliamentary debates
unless expressly permitted to do so. Under the Electronics Act,
journalists caught filming without permission face a 10-year prison
sentence.

Analysts have sought to dampen expectations about the first parliamentary
session since elections in November last year. Both chambers are dominated
by the pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which won
80 percent of the vote, while a quarter of seats have already been
reserved for pre-appointed military officials who effectively carry power
of veto.

A senior member of the Committee for Professional Conduct (CPC), set up
recently by the government’s censor board with the professed aim of
protecting the interests of journalists and issuing guidelines for media
practice, said the group has lobbied the government to allow reporters
inside the building but was also yet to receive a response.

Parliamentary law states that only MPs and representatives are allowed to
join sessions unless given special approval by the parliamentary chairman.
Those who cheat this law, perhaps by entering under the guise of somebody
else, will be fined 100,000 kyat ($US100) or face one year in prison.

Article 53(f) prohibits the passing of photographs and information to
foreign news outlets unless given express permission. Anyone deemed guilty
of this faces a two-year sentence.

____________________________________

January 28, Myanmar Times
Inexperience behind highway deaths: police – Nay Nwe Moe Aung

TRAFFIC police have attributed the large number of fatal accidents on the
Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw highway to motorists’ lack of experience driving at
high speed, and say they are taking steps to make the road safer.

Drivers and passengers rarely wear seatbelts while travelling on the
highway – one of the few stretches of road in the country where it is
possible to travel at 100 kilometres (60 miles) an hour – and cars are
often poorly maintained, with bald tyres a particular problem, officials
said at a recent press conference.

While the number of serious accidents on the 325-kilometre (202-mile)
highway declined from 86 to 70 in 2010, fatalities increased from 37 to
43, according to official figures. Accident-related injuries were down,
falling from 153 in 2009 to 125 in 2010. More than three-quarters of those
killed were male.

Police Lieutenant Aung Naing from the Yangon Traffic Rules Enforce-ment
Supervisory Committee said an annual review of accidents found they occur
most frequently when motorists are travelling to Nay Pyi Taw. The section
in Bago Region between the 42nd and 43rd mile posts, which indicate the
distance from Yangon, was found to be the most dangerous.

“Drivers are twice as likely to be involved in an accident while
travelling to Nay Pyi Taw” because that is the direction most motorists
travel in when they drive on the highway for the first time, he said.
“They don’t know the road well, such as where the bends in the road are.”

In a bid to remind drivers of the potential dangers the new road poses,
officials have erected signs warning drivers to slow down, built fences
along some sections of the highway and installed “Cat’s Eye” road studs
that light up at night.

“We must keep drivers’ attention on the road because they don’t have much
experience travelling on a highway,” Pol Lt Aung Naing said. “We are going
to plant different kinds of trees along the median strip at each mile
point. This system is used in other countries as well.”

U Myint Aung, a former director of the Road Transport Administration
Department under the Ministry of Transportation, said less lives would be
lost if drivers and passengers fastened their seat belts. “We need to
introduce a law that mandates the use of seat belts. Education cam-paigns
alone aren’t enough,” he said.

Bald and old tyres were also a factor in some accidents. Committee vice
chairman U Hla Thaung Myint said tyres should be replaced within five
years of their manufacturing date and recommended drivers check the
condition of their tyres before setting off on a long trip.

Compounding the tyre problem is the fact the highway is concrete, rather
than bitumen, a Yangon-based engineer said.

“Concrete is a dangerous surface for vehicles with tyres in bad condition.
The concrete surface is more abrasive [than bitumen] and tyres that are
old or bald can easily burst,” he said.

Concrete roads are not without their benefits, however. “A bitumen road is
more difficult to maintain and repair and is more expensive. It’s also
more slippery in rainy season.”

One Yangon-based office worker who regularly uses the highway said he
believed the road posed little danger to motorists, provided they followed
the speed limits.

“There’s nothing wrong with the road itself, it seems to have been built
quite well. The most dangerous things are cattle and earthmoving trucks.
These trucks drive without discipline at night – sometimes they even go in
the wrong direction,” he said. “Accidents mostly happen because drivers
break the speed limit and lose control when going around a bend.”

The four-lane Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw highway was officially opened in March
2009 and the government estimates it is used by 5000 vehicles a day. –
Translated by Thiri Min Htun

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 28, The Epoch Times (US)
Burma’s landmine epidemic – James Burke

One in ten Burmese townships is affected by landmines says a new report.

Bangkok—After decades of conflict, Burma (offically called Myanmar)
suffers one of the worst landmine problems in the world with more than 10
percent of the country’s townships being contaminated with landmines, says
a Swiss-based humanitarian group.

The townships are mainly located in areas dominated by ethnic minorities,
on the other side of the border from Thailand, says a report launched in
Bangkok this week by Geneva Call.

“The geographic scope of the problem is that 34 of the country’s 324
townships are affected,” said Katherine Krammer, the Asian program
directory with Geneva Call.

The report estimates that approximately 5 million people live in the
affected townships, and that thousands of civilians have been injured or
killed by landmines.

However due to difficulties in accessing the affected regions Geneva Call
says there is little known about the true extent of the problem and the
impact of the mines on affected populations.

Krammer said that there are significant challenges in addressing the
landmine crisis in Burma. The key hurdle, she said, is that the ruling
military junta refuses to acknowledge there is an issue.

“Since 2004 the government has refused to authorize activities
specifically directed toward addressing the landmine problem,” she said.

Based on research performed between June and September of last year, the
report says that the junta has banned almost all forms of landmine action
with the exception of a limited amount of prosthetic assistance to people
with amputated limbs.

The size of the landmine problem has been an exacerbated by decades of
conflict in the eastern regions, said Krammer. Since Burma gained
independence from Britain in 1948, various ethnic groups have sought
greater autonomy, resulting in cases of armed rebellions.

Currently, a number of armed groups, such as the Karen National Liberation
Army and the Shan Army-South, continue to oppose the military junta that
has ruled the ethnically diverse country with a strong hand since 1962.

“Right now the situation is such that it is not a very stable environment
for any demining so it is unlikely that demining can take place in the
near future,” said Krammer.

However, locally based organizations are quite keen to work on the issue,
she said while adding that several were already conducting some type of
landmine action such as survey work and victim assistance.

According to research conducted by Canadian organization Landmine and
Cluster Munition Monitor, Burma’s junta is the only country where the
government is laying antipersonnel mines.

The Geneva Call report, however, acknowledges that it is not just military
or the ethnic armies deploying landmines. Villagers have used them to
protect their communities against attack or theft, and they are also used
as so-called “business-mines” by drug production and trafficking
interests.

“The mines that have been used have been both commercially manufactured,
both from the government’s plants as well as from other countries like
China,” said Krammer while adding that homemade landmines are also in use.
The report also said that Russia is supplying landmines to the Burmese
military.

The report ranks Burma as having the third highest number of landmine
accidents in the world. Afghanistan has the highest, followed by Columbia.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

January 28, Mizzima News
Win Tin, environmentalists alarmed by Myitsone Dam – Thomas Maung Shwe

Chiang Mai - Win Tin, the co-founder of the National League for Democracy,
says he and his colleagues are “deeply concerned” by the potentially
devastating impact of the 152-meter high Myitsone Dam now under
construction on the upper Irrawaddy River in northern Kachin State.

Win Tin told Mizzima that he is worried the project will cause increased
ethnic tensions because of the widespread displacement of villagers and
the impact on the environment.

The project’s critics also fear that restricting the flow of the river on
the upper Irrawaddy will have devastating consequences farther downstream,
depleting fish stocks and severely impacting agricultural production in
the Irrawaddy delta where 60 percent of Burma’s rice is produced.

Construction and financing on the project is headed by the China Power
Investment Corporation (CPI), a state-owned giant electrical company that
has partnered with Burma’s state power utility Myanma Electric Power
Enterprise (MEPE) and the Burmese conglomerate Asia World, which is
controlled by Stephen Law and his family. Law’s father, Lo Sit Han, the
chairman of Asia World, has been labeled a ‘narco warlord’ and linked to
money laundering by the US government.

The Myitsone Dam will be built at the confluence of the Mali Hka and Nmai
Hka rivers and, according to Burmese state media, will generate 6,000MW.
Last September in a report on Sino Burmese relations the Brussels-based
think tank, the International Crisis Group, citing Chinese state media,
concluded that when completed the Myitsone dam “is expected to send most
of the power generated to China.”

Environmental activists with the Burma Rivers Network, a coalition
comprised of organizations representing various dam-affected communities
in Burma and one of its members, the Kachin Development Networking Group,
said that the creation of the dam’s reservoir will flood an area larger
than Singapore and will displace scores of villages with an estimated
population of around 15,000 people while also destroying ecologically
sensitive areas, something Win Tin said is unacceptable.

‘The relocation of thousands of Kachin villagers is a great problem,’ Win
Tin said. The veteran politician, who served a lengthy jail sentence as a
political prisoner, noted that when the project started a few years ago
‘there was no consultation with the people’.

He called the dam’s development the latest act of ‘land grabbing’ by the
Burmese regime, which has routinely confiscated land throughout the
country without giving compensation to pursue massive development
projects.

Win Tin also said he feared that the Kachin people affected by the project
‘may not be able to discern that this is a project imposed on them by the
SPDC and does not represent the will of the majority of Burma’s people’.
He added that he feared ramifications of the project would lead to
increased ethnic tension in a country wracked by decades of civil war and
ethnic conflict.

Win Tin is not alone. Sai Sai, the coordinator of the Burma Rivers
Network, said the Myitsone dam will ‘have a major disruptive impact on
people living downstream from the project’.

Sai Sai and his fellow activists are particularly concerned that because
of the dam, water on Burma’s most important river ‘will be stored and
released depending on the electricity needs of the Chinese, leading to
unpredictable water shortages and surges’.

Ah Nan, a researcher with the Burma Rivers Network, told Mizzima that
several hundred villagers were forced to move already last year and the
new living areas the Burmese regime provided are totally inadequate.

Ah Nan said, ‘Most of these villagers are subsistence farmers who have
worked the land for generations, but at little notice the Burmese regime
orders them to move and making matters worse, they aren’t even allowed to
bring their livestock with them.

These people who were self reliant before, will be left with nothing and
driven into poverty, this is a major disaster in the making.’

The Myitsone dam will be the first of seven cascading dams on the upper
Irrawaddy in Kachin state. An article in the industry journal Power in
Asia last September said the massive project will generate a combined
capacity of 16,500 MW, slightly less than the present 18,200 MW generating
capacity of China’s huge Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest dam.

As the Burma Rivers Network has pointed out, the seven dams on the
Irrawaddy’s headwaters will produce five times the total current power
production capacity of Burma.

The other six dams, like the Myitsone, will be built and operated by CPI
in partnership with MEPE and Asia World. In July of last year, the Burmese
regime’s Union of Myanmar Government Gazette reported that in December
2009 the three entities had established the Irrawaddy
Myitsone-Myintnya-MyintWan Hydropower Company Limited to build and operate
the dams.

‘As we’ve seen with other dam projects of this kind in Burma, the regime’s
priority is to enrich itself and make money for the foreign investors
while the needs of the people of Burma are ignored’, Sai Sai added.

Power in Asia also revealed that official Chinese figures put the
estimated total cost of the 15-year, seven-dam mega project at US $30
billion (200 billion yuan).

According to reports, the Chinese firms will bring in their own work force
to build the dams thus creating fewer local jobs, a common practice by
Chinese firms operating overseas.

Bomb attacks on dam site

Last year, a series of at least 10 separate bombs exploded on April 17,
2010 at the Myitsone Dam construction site, injuring a Chinese worker and
destroying several temporary buildings belonging to Asia World and
vehicles owned by the firm.

Within days of the explosions, the Burmese regime detained more than 70
local people, mostly youth affiliated with the Education and Economic
Development for Youth, the youth wing of Burma’s second largest cease-fire
group, the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO).

The KIO, which has publicly opposed the dam, denied any responsibility for
the explosions and eventually most of the people arrested were released.
According to the KIO, its concerns about the dam have been ignored by the
regime, which has pressed ahead on the project.

In an interview with Mizzima last November, Lana Gumhpan, a senior figure
in the de facto government that administers the territory controlled by
the Kachin Independence Organisation, said that the Burmese regime’s
reckless pursuit of the dam project was more evidence that the junta was
quite willing to ‘ignore the concerns of Burma’s ethnic minorities’.
____________________________________

January 28, New Light of Myanmar
Myanmar Special Economic Zone Law enacted

Nay Pyi Taw – The State Peace and Development Council enacted the Myanmar
Special Economic Zone Law under Law No. 8/2011 dated 8th Waning of Pyatho,
1372 ME, 27 January, 2011.

The law comprises 12 chapters. They are Chapter I: Title and Definition,
Chapter II: Objectives, Chapter III: Special Economic Zone, Chapter IV:
Formation of Central Body, Central Working Body and Management Committees
relating to the Myanmar Special Economic Zone and Functions and Duties
thereof, Chapter V: Special Privileges of Investor, Chapter VI: Specific
Duties of Developer or Investor, Chapter VII: Land Use, Chapter VIII:
Banks and Finance Management and Insurance Business, Chapter IX:
Management and Inspection of Commodities by Customs Department, Chapter X:
Quarantine Inspection and Confinement so as not to spread Contagious
Disease, Chapter XI: Matters relating to Labour and Chapter XII:
Miscellaneous.

The full text of the law will be published in the Myanmar Gazettee. - MNA

____________________________________
HEALTH

January 28, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma’s health woes traversing borders – Joseph Allchin

Preventable infectious diseases and a raft of other health concerns are
spilling over Burma’s border into neighbouring countries, causing a
headache for regional health systems and a tragedy for its citizens.

The situation is a “man-made crisis”, said Dr Vit of the Johns Hopkins
Centre on Public Health at a seminar yesterday at northern Thailand’s
Chiang Mai University.

Diseases such as lymphatic filariasis, a possible precursor to
Elephantiasis which causes debilitating swelling of the limbs, has been
generally eradicated in countries such as Thailand. This has been achieved
through a combination of public health spending, policy and co-ordination,
which has came at a cost of around $500,000 per year in Thailand.

Vit notes that the incidence of filariasis in Thailand is only along the
Burmese border provinces of Tak, Mae Hong Son and Kanchanaburi, where all
cases occured among Burmese migrants. He added that only 10 percent of
infected persons showed symptoms of the disease, which is transmitted
through mosquitoes, indicating that the fact that two cases had been
reported since 2004 made it “endemic”.

Thailand’s Mahidol University of Tropical Medicine corroborated, noting
that “another strain of bancroftian filariasis [similar to lymphatic
filariasis], found in immigrant workers from Myanmar [Burma], has been
reported in Thailand”.

Vit highlights the disparity in spending between the regional countries as
an explanation for the disproportionate occurrences: China has spent
roughly $US66 per person on health each year and Thailand around $US122,
while the Burmese government spends around $US1, although he notes that
the Thai government does treat migrants so not all of this would go to
Thai citizens.

Burma’s spending equates to 0.9 percent of government expenditure, while
the average regional figure is around 10 percent. This effectively means
that at least 89 percent of Burma’s health spending comes from household
expenditure or charitable endeavours. Such figures prompted the World
Health Organisation (WHO) in 2000 to rank its service 190 out of 191
global countries.

The UN Development Programme estimates however that GDP per capita in
terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) is around $US881 in Burma, while in
Cambodia, another impoverished regional nation, it is $US1619.

PPP is an attempt at estimating the spending power of a nation’s populace.
The figures mean that Burmese would be less able to purchase adequate
healthcare, given the woeful state of the economy.

This is further reflected in the diseases which are of most concern in
Thailand and Burma. In Thailand. The major killers are over-consumption,
old age, diabetes, accidents, cancer of the liver and cardiovascular
disease. Burma’s however are diseases of poverty, with diarrhoea, malaria,
tuberculosis (TB) and malnutrition, which UN figures claim a third of
children suffer from, causing the most concern. This was despite the
junta’s claim that they had met the Millennium Development Goal target of
eradicating TB.

Vit notes however that of those treated for TB in Thailand, 38 percent had
crossed the border from Burma where medical treatment is deplorable. A
further 37 percent were migrants working in Thailand, mostly Burmese. He
is at pains to add however that Burma “is not a poor country”, given that
it is one of Asia’s largest exporters of lucrative natural gas.

The pariah’s health results are even worse in ethnic areas, with health
indicators in eastern Burma comparable to war-torn African nations. Infant
mortality rates in eastern Burma, for instance, were around 73 per 1000,
whilst in Sudan it is 69 per 1000.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 28, Financial Times (UK)
Burma: open for business? – Tim Johnston

Welcome to Burma, the most frontier of the frontier markets.

The Burmese junta has passed a Special Economic Zone Law designed to
attract more foreign investment, but this being Burma, it is still not
clear exactly what the law says. What is clear is that the authorities are
keen to overhaul the country’s moribund economy by attracting foreign
investment.

That is not to say that the junta has not already been busy attracting
outside investment.

At the end of last year, the junta signed a $13bn deal with Thai
contractor Ital-Thai to build a port and industrial zone on the coast of
the Andaman Sea near the town of Tavoy – known in Burma as Dawei.

And China has been particularly active, having committed $8bn worth of
investment last year alone in energy projects. This includes an oil and
gas pipeline that will run from the Andaman coast to Kunming in China’s
Yunnan province, and a large hydroelectric power project.

And now the Koreans, who recently helped to bring another frontier market
(Laos) in from the cold, want to open a Burmese stock exchange.

Many western investors have been put off Burma because of economic
sanctions imposed by the US, the EU and their allies, even though the EU
sanctions only formally ban ventures in the gems, mining and timber
industries, or anything that involves the generals or those close to them.

But despite these sanctions and the reputational risk involved in doing
business in a frontier market like Burma, western companies are showing
renewed interest.

The Burmese embassy in Bangkok reports that business visa requests have
risen sharply, and a number of companies have quietly re-entered the
country, particularly consumer products companies attracted by a
population of over 60m people who have been forced to rely on expensive
grey imports for years.

However, given the history of forced nationalisation in the 1980s, and
continuing regulatory uncertainty, many are wary of getting too involved.

Both the Association of South-East Asian Nations and the Burmese
opposition have called for sanctions to be lifted in the wake of last
November’s elections, despite evidence that the generals resorted to
widespread fraud to ensure that only a minimal number of opposition
politicians won seats.

US and European diplomats have sent signals that there is unlikely to be a
significant softening of their position on sanctions unless Aung San Suu
Kyi, the Nobel Laureate and de facto opposition leader, calls for it, and
there are no signs of that happening soon.

Meanwhile, the Burmese government has embarked on an extensive programme
of privatisation in the run up to the transfer of power to the new
parliament next Monday.

But investors shouldn’t get their hopes up just yet -many of the jewels in
the state crown have gone either to close business associates of the
generals, or to the two vast military controlled conglomerates, Union of
Myanmar Economic Holdings and Myanamr Economic Cooperation in deals that
are not fully transparent.

It may be a while still before Burma becomes the region’s next Vietnam.

____________________________________

January 28, Deustche Presse Agentur
Myanmar parliaments to usher in new era of military rule – Ko Ko and Peter
Janssen

Yangon/Bangkok – Military-ruled Myanmar is to convene its first parliament
session in two decades on Monday, tasked with ushering in a new era of
military-led parliamentary rule.

When the upper and lower houses' elected members and 166 appointed
military members meet in the capital Naypyitaw, the first item on the
agenda will be the selection of a new president.

There is widespread speculation that the next head of state will be Senior
General Than Shwe, 78, who has ruled Myanmar since 1992.

'I think Senior General Than Shwe will be president because he doesn't
want to abandon absolute power that easily,' one Myanmar businessman said.

There are alternative scenarios.

'Shwe Mann (number 3 in the junta) is the most likely figure to become
president,' a government official said. 'But Than Shwe will still be
controlling the president from behind the curtain.'

There are good reasons for Than Shwe to want to stay in power, including
avoiding the fate of his predecessor.

General Ne Win, military strongman from 1962 to 1988, died in disgrace and
obscurity in 2002 under house arrest, where he had been placed by Than
Shwe.

The system could yet play in the current ruler's favour.

Under Myanmar's new constitution, three groups nominate the next president
- elected members of the upper and lower house as well as the appointed
military lawmakers, who account for 25 per cent of both houses.

Even if the military men do not nominate Than Shwe, the elected
parliamentarians are likely to.

Both chambers are dominated by the pro-junta Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP), which won about 77 per cent of the seats in the
November 7 elections. The vote was criticized for restricting access for
opposition candidates.

The USDP is packed with former military men and government officials, most
of whom owe their careers to Than Shwe.

The president is empowered to appoint the next cabinet and heads of bodies
such as the attorney general and chief justice. He will also become the
chairman of the National Defence and Security Council, a new entity.

The council is responsible for appointing - or dismissing - the next
commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

It will consist of 11 members including the president, two vice
presidents, the military and deputy commanders-in-chief, speakers of the
two houses, the defence minister, home minister, foreign minister and
border affairs minister.

The council will effectively control the military, which has been
Myanmar's only real source of power for the past five decades. 'It's the
same as the politburo in Beijing,' said Maung Zarni, a London-based
academic and activist. 'If a handful of pseudo-communist paternalists in
Beijing can control 1.3 billion Chinese, the national security council can
easily control 400,000 or fewer men in uniform through incentives,
coercions and exemplary severe punishment.'

These are all good reasons to assume that Than Shwe will go after the
presidency, or at least make sure that whoever gets it is securely in his
pocket.

But analysts see some elements of change.

'Now you're going to run a country under two institutions - the military
and the government - so there could be frictions,' said Aung Din,
executive director for the US Campaign for Burma. 'There are more chances
to make some changes.'

The National League for Democracy (NLD), the opposition party of Nobel
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, sees more chances for changes through the
emergence of civil society.

There are hopes that a draft law allowing the establishment of labour
unions will provide a new avenue for political activism.

Less is expected from the elected parliament and the next cabinet.

'I don't think there will be an opportunity for civilians to have a role
in the next government,' said senior NLD member Nyan Win. 'There will only
be a role for those so-called civilians who took off their military
uniforms.'
____________________________________

January 28, Irrawaddy
Junta will tighten grip on NLD – Wai Moe

Despite the NLD having no presence in the Parliament and being effectively
excluded from the political process, the Burmese junta never miss a chance
to attack the movement led by pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

What will the Burmese junta’s plan be to control Suu Kyi’s National League
for Democracy in the coming months?

Ahead of the opening session of Parliament, which will be dominated by the
junta’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and military
officials, on January 31, the junta, headed by Snr-Gen Than Shwe, moved to
deactivate the NLD.

On Friday, Burma’s supreme court in Naypyidaw rejected the appeal of the
NLD for legal status.

After the court verdict, Kyaw Hoe, a lawyer of the NLD told The Irrawaddy
from Naypyidaw that the NLD legal team will appeal to the Chief Justice
office for the party legal existence under the election commission law
in1989.

“The court verdict for today's appeal was as imperfect as the Supreme
Court's. Just read the verdict of the rest of the world.”

However, the supreme court’s rejection is only one of the junta’s plans to
control the NLD’s activities since Suu Kyi’s release on Nov. 13.

NLD sources said Burmese authorities recently put more pressure and
threatened leaders at the party's headquarters in Rangoon, saying assembly
of the party in the building was against the law as the party lost its
legal status since it did not register for the election.

If the NLD has to move their headquarters from its current HQ, one option
is that the party moves its operations to Suu Kyi’s lakeside house on
University Avenue.

However, the NLD is likely to face more challenges in the coming months as
reports from Naypyidaw suggest hardliners within the ruling junta and the
USDP  reportedly requested Than Shwe to tighten controls on the
opposition, including one plan to put Suu Kyi under arrest again.

A possible approach by the ruling generals is that the NLD may have to
register again with the Union Election Commission under the coming
government. Or, if they just want to be involved in social work, they must
register with the Ministry of Home Affairs, said observers.

But Thakin Chan Tun, a veteran politician in Rangoon, said that the NLD
leaders including Suu Kyi think all possible options for the main
opposition movement remain alive.

“Even if the court rejected the NLD’s appeal, the pro-democracy movement
will move on,” he said. “There are many different ways to carry the
movement. Let's wait and see the junta's next move in this cat and mouse
game.”

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

January 28, Mizzima News
DVB plans to cut radio programmes, expand TV – Tun Tun with Aye Chan Naing

New Delhi – The Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), which
suffered funding cut recently, says it will eliminate some morning radio
programmes.

At the same time, as the sole exile TV broadcaster, DVB is making
preparations to expand its TV programmes.

Mizzima reporter Tun Tun interviewed DVB Executive Director Aye Chan Naing
on the funding cuts, trends in the exiled Burmese media, stopping the
short wave radio programmes and the implications and changes in the
policies of organizations that fund DVB and other exiled media.

Q: What is the percentage of the funding cuts and what is the amount?

A: It’s about 15 percent and the amount is approximate US$ 500,000.

Q: Because of the funding cuts what programmes in your regular operations
will be affected?

A: We have to cut our airtime in radio programmes and some entertainment
programmes. We have to reduce some of our office operations, too.

Q: What will be the impact of the reductions in your operations?

A: I think the main impact will be on our radio programmes. The impact
will be severe in this area. But on the other hand, we will balance
program cuts with overhead costs cut at our Oslo office to minimise the
impact on our listeners and audiences in Burma.
For instance, if we can significantly reduce operational costs in the Oslo
office, there will be no impact on our programmes.

Q: What is likely to be the impact on the audiences inside Burma due to
some programme cuts?

A: I think there will be little impact on our audiences. In radio
programmes, we will stop our broadcasting of the morning programme. There
will be some impact on short wave radio programmes. But at the same time,
we will expand our TV programmes. Currently, we telecast our programmes
two to three times daily. We will now extend this airtime considerably,
especially for news programmes.

We have airtime for round the clock TV telecasts, so we will expand TV
programmes in many areas. The TV audiences inside Burma will be more
informed about what is going on in Burma.

Q: What are the reasons for the funding cuts?

A: Actually, it’s not a funding cut. The donors, for their own reasons,
may simply not make a contribution for some years. In the long term, we
could face similar loss of funds by other existing donors. So we have to
consider our long term plan in facing such a financial crisis.

This is not a budget cut to DVB because of unsatisfactory performance and
operations. The lack of funding is due to their own problems and policies.

Q: The BBC Burmese Service had similar funding cuts. Some online exiled
media had to stop their magazines and journals in the English language. Do
you see any structural changes in the exiled media under the reduced
funding situation?

A: I think there is one point that all of our exiled media should consider
seriously. Our donors are not giving funds to us as media organisations.
Their funding philosophy and objective of giving funds to us is concerned
with politics. They are providing these funds to us because there is no
media freedom in Burma and because of the unfavourable political landscape
for a free press. If they change their political policy, certainly it will
have an impact.

So there is a danger for us, challenges that are immense, because we must
commit to our schedule and programmes in advance. We cannot stop our
programmes. So we must have long term plans. If we cannot build sound and
reliable funding, the danger will be very serious to us and to all exiled
media, for Mizzima or the Irrawaddy or DVB. All of us.

One more thing. What is even worse is the lack of media freedom inside
Burma. There are human rights violations inside Burma. The statements made
on Friday by the delegates sent by SPDC (junta) to the UN Human Rights
Council (UNHRC) are blatant lies. Only the exiled media can expose such
lies made in the international arena.

The domestic media cannot do so. So under this circumstance, the role of
exiled media is very important for the people of Burma, foreign
governments, NGOs and people in foreign countries. They need to know what
is really going on in Burma by relying on the exiled media. If the exiled
media cannot survive, it will be dangerous for everyone.

Q: Some observers are saying that the donors’ priority is to channel their
funds into Burma?

A: Some of the rumours are true. Some are real. But I see also that some
of our donors, from Europe and the US, already have operations inside
Burma. At the same time, they have a commitment to continue their funding
to the exiled organisations too.

But on the other hand, we should ask what are they thinking, why have they
stopped funding some of us? We should consider the overall view because
all of these donors have supported and funded the Burmese pro-democracy
movement for 20 years. Now their ideology, their thoughts, and their
tactics are changing.

So all of us need to consider why they have changed. In our view, the
changes inside Burma are not real change, only cosmetic changes. They
conducted a general election, we have a Constitution now and a new
civilian government will emerge soon. If they [donors] really believe in
all these cosmetic changes, it must be because of our failure to convince
them these are just superficial changes.

Q: What will DVB do if you have more cuts?

A: We have started our own contingency plans. We must consider how we can
continue our funding and generate income from our current operations. We
have full faith on our existing donor organisations. They also believe and
recognise our important role. So we don’t have to worry about our funding
for the next four to six years because the role of the exiled media will
be important as long as there is no change inside Burma and there is no
media freedom in Burma.

If the SPDC really changes by giving media freedom and everybody can say
whatever they wish; we don’t need to stay as an exile organization, we
don’t need to work here anymore. We will re-enter our country. So I see
all of these changes also to be dependent on the Burmese government.

If they still gag the media, if they ban media freedom and freedom of
expression in Burma, our role will be important. So the democracy-loving
governments and Western countries will continue their support to us and
funding to us. I have no doubt of it. But we must prepare ourselves to
cope with the changes. Some Western governments might have changed their
tactics, but they are not naïve enough to believe all of what the SPDC is
trying to tell them.

Another point I’d like to make about the policy changes being made by
these Western governments. They can change their policy, but there are
people, social communities and NGOs in their countries too. They listen to
and care about what these communities are saying. They cannot alone change
their policies.

Q: The people from Burma have concerns about DVB reducing its services.
What would you like to say to them?

A: We are extremely sorry for cutting our airtime in radio programmes but
on the other hand, we will try to maintain our present work standards.
Another good point in the changes is the expansion of TV programmes by
airing more programmes and more airtime in telecasting news in almost real
time. Unfortunately, for listeners of our short wave radio programmes,
which are accessible in all nooks and corners of the country, this
programing will be cut. TV programmes do have a limitation. But we will
try to telecast real time programmes daily, maybe for the first time in
our country.