BurmaNet News, January 29 - 31, 2011

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January 29 – 31, 2011 Issue #4130

INSIDE BURMA
New York Times: Myanmar opens parliament for first time since the ’80s
Reuters: As Myanmar parliament opens, junta's shadow looms large
Nation (Thailand): Suu Kyi launches website
DVB: Journalists barred from parliament
New Light of Myanmar: All Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw representatives
arrive in Nay Pyi Taw Representatives enjoying convenient accommodation,
meals and transport

ON THE BORDER
Thai News Agency MCOT: Two Thai soldiers wounded by artillery from Myanmar
clash

BUSINESS / TRADE
Bangkok Post: Businesses keen on roads along border with Burma

INTERNATIONAL
Economist: Aung San Suu Kyi (virtually) at Davos
Kansas City Star (US): For ethnic Karen immigrants, life in KC is a dream
after a nightmare
AFP: Myanmar refugee sets himself alight in Australia

OPINION / OTHER
TIME: Was Burma's opening of Parliament significant? – Hannah Beech
Bangkok Post: Egyptian troubles paralleled in Burma – Editorial
DVB: This parliament makes a mockery of democracy – Larry Jagan
Myanmar Times: Business boom beckons in Myanmar – Luc de Waegh
Straits Times (Singapore): Way forward for Asean and EU on Myanmar; New
Parliament opening today offers opportunity for re-engagement – Jonathan
Eyal






____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 30, New York Times
Myanmar opens parliament for first time since the ’80s – Thomas Fuller

Bangkok — Myanmar’s ruling generals on Monday convened the first meeting
of Parliament in more than two decades, a move they say completes the
impoverished country’s transition to a multiparty democracy.

Reporters were barred from the Parliament building when the session was
convened Monday morning under tight security in the capital, Naypyidaw,
the Associated Press reported.

Officially the opening of the two-chamber Parliament will mean the
dissolution of the junta that has ruled Myanmar since 1988, when the
country was known as Burma.

But it does not appear to be the dawn of unfettered democracy. A quarter
of the seats are reserved for the military, and a military-backed party
controls more than 80 percent of the rest, allowing the generals to
effectively retain their power, albeit in a less hierarchical system.

“The military is staying in control, but some of them are taking off their
uniforms,” said Win Min, a professor at Payap University in Thailand who
is on leave in the United States.

One key question is whether Myanmar’s top general, Than Shwe, will become
president, the most powerful job under the new Constitution, but one that
would require him to resign as commander in chief.

Gen. Than Shwe, who has successfully crushed uprisings and purged
potential rivals inside the military during his nearly two decades in
power, turns 78 on Wednesday, according to a government booklet published
three decades ago. (The military government has been so secretive that
even the birthday of the country’s top leader is not known with
certainty.)

Myanmar’s new system will resemble a democracy more in form than in
substance, analysts say, but with the possibility of more debate and
inclusiveness than under the junta’s top-down rule. Myanmar’s news media
in exile has reported that questions in Parliament must be submitted by
members 10 days in advance and pass a vetting process.

“I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of open, democratic governance
during these first five years,” said Priscilla A. Clapp, who was the chief
of mission at the United States Embassy in Myanmar from 1999 to 2002. “But
with a system that is so much more complex, inevitably competing centers
of power will develop.”

The opening of Parliament, which follows elections in November, is only
one of a number of changes inside Myanmar.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize and the country’s
leading dissident, was freed from house arrest a week after the elections
and is now seeking to rebuild her pro-democracy movement. The military
government, meanwhile, is aggressively selling off buildings, factories
and state-run companies, mostly to allies and family members of the
country’s military leaders. The rush to privatization vaguely resembles
the vast sell-off in Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Neighboring countries have responded by pushing harder to end Myanmar’s
international isolation, including an effort to lift the economic
sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union and other
Western countries.

The two chambers of Parliament and representatives from the military will
nominate three vice presidents, one of whom will be elected president and
choose a cabinet. Names of potential cabinet members circulating in
Myanmar in recent days included many of the people who held positions of
power under the military government.

Parliament last met in Myanmar under the one-party rule of Gen. Ne Win,
who formally retired from politics in 1988 during a time of unrest, but
the country has not had a genuine multiparty system since 1962, when the
military took power in a coup.
____________________________________

January 31, Reuters
As Myanmar parliament opens, junta's shadow looms large – Aung Hla Tun

Naypyitaw – An elected parliament convened in Myanmar on Monday for the
first time in half a century but inspired scant enthusiasm among a
sceptical public convinced it is just a smokescreen for continued military
rule.

More than 600 members filled two new "Hluttaws," or legislative chambers,
in the opening session. They are tasked with choosing Myanmar's first
civilian president since a 1962 coup ushered in 49 unbroken years of
military dictatorship.

The ruling junta has hailed the legislature as a new dawn of democracy but
critics dismiss it as a charade that leaves the same authoritarian
generals in control. The new government is just as likely to clamp down on
dissent as the old one.

Lawmakers elected a chairmen and vice chairmen for each of the two
chambers in the opening session, with three of the four positions going to
retired soldiers, according to several parliamentarians, who asked to
remain anonymous because speaking to the media was punishable by two years
in prison.

The big surprise was junta number three Thura Shwe Mann, a career soldier
honoured for bravery and tipped by many politicians and analysts as a
possible presidential candidate, being made chairman, or speaker, of the
lower house.

"There was speculation among us that Thura Shwe Mann will become the
president, but our party instructed us to elect him as the chairman of the
lower house," said a member of the main political party, the Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is a proxy for the military
government.

The army has a reserved quota of a quarter of the seats in both chambers,
as well as in regional parliaments. That leaves parliament dominated by
serving or retired soldiers loyal to junta supremo Than Shwe who many
analysts think might take the post of president.

Police patrolled roads and legislators travelled in luxury cars to the
assemblies in Naypyitaw, the sprawling capital built from scratch just
four years ago, where the military rulers of the former Burma have
isolated themselves some 320 km (200 miles) from the biggest city and
former capital, Yangon.

But there was barely a ripple of interest among ordinary Burmese, most of
whom see the changes as purely cosmetic.

"We have no idea and no time to take the trouble to think about these
useless things," said a 38-year-old worker in Naypyitaw when asked for his
views on parliament.

Journalists were barred from attending the session and cellular phones
were banned in the chambers.

Following a November 7 general election that was sharply criticised at
home and abroad for irregularities, both the lower and upper houses will
be dominated by the USDP.

"WE DON'T CARE WHO BECOMES PRESIDENT"

The National Democratic Force, the biggest pro-democracy party that took
part in the November election, won just 12 of the 664 seats.

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
boycotted the election after winning the previous poll in 1990 by a
landslide, a result the military ignored.

Despite being freed from house arrest after the election, Suu Kyi and her
party, dissolved for boycotting the poll, have no influence over
parliament, though she remains immensely popular.

While Western nations have harshly criticised the parliament and shown
little sign of ending sanctions imposed in response to rights abuses, the
elections have been lauded by China which, along with Thailand, India and
Singapore, is a big investor.

Myanmar's neighbours are keen to tap its rich natural resources. Its
proven gas reserves, for instance, doubled in the past decade to 570
billion cubic metres, equivalent to almost a fifth of Australia's,
according to the BP Statistical Review.

China's official Xinhua news agency hailed the start of parliament as a
"new era," in which the military would still play a role "with its own
special characteristics."

Japan's Foreign Ministry said it would "closely observe" the direction of
the parliament and called on the new government, when it takes office, to
release political prisoners and engage more with the international
community.

Most people interviewed by Reuters said they remained far more concerned
with the struggles of day-to-day life in a country with woeful public
services, frequent power cuts and chronic economic mismanagement.

At least 32 percent of Myanmar's estimated 50 million people live below
the poverty line.

"We don't care who becomes president as long as he can create better
living conditions," said the worker, who would only speak candidly on the
condition his name was not reported.

"Things couldn't be worse right now and prices keep rising."

No one has publicly expressed interest in becoming head of state and
analysts believe the president, two vice presidents and ministers have
already been decided by the junta.

Many believe the 78-year-old Than Shwe is too wary to end his 18-year
reign and will quietly retire from the military in coming days so he is
eligible to take the all-powerful presidency himself.

Other analysts, however, believe the strongman may have reserved the top
positions for his proteges and confidantes and plans to step aside and
pull the strings from behind the scenes.

(Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Writing by Martin
Petty; Editing by Robert Birsel)

____________________________________

January 31, The Nation (Thailand)
Suu Kyi launches website

Rangoon -Burma's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi this weekend launched
a website to consolidate international links and speed up "democratic
union" in her military-led country.

"A good communication system is essential to our endeavour to set up a
people's network for democracy that will span the whole world," Suu Kyi
said in a statement posted online Monday. By moving the message of her
National League for Democracy (NLD) opposition party online, "I believe we
shall be able to achieve our goal of a democratic union at a faster pace,"
she said.

The statement was co-signed by NLD vice chairman Tin Oo. The website,
http://www.nldburma.org, was made possible when authorities allowed Suu
Kyi internet access on November 21.

The NLD is Burma's main opposition party. It won the 1990 general election
by a landslide, but has been blocked from power by the ruling junta for
the past 20 years, with most of its leadership thrown in jail. The NLD
boycotted the November election in response to new regulations that would
have required it to drop its leader Suu Kyi as a member. As a consequence
of the boycott, it lost its party status.
____________________________________

January 31, Democratic Voice of Burma
Journalists barred from parliament – Shwe Aung

Journalists will not be allowed to enter parliament today to cover the
first session in more than two decades, despite reported pledges to the
contrary.

It also remains unclear whether media will be allowed to report on any
future sittings, the chairman of the Committee for Professional Conduct
(CPC), Ko Ko, told DVB.

“The CPC previously checked with the MoI [Ministry of Information] and was
told that there was no plan to invite journalists to Naypyidaw for the
parliament opening,” he said. This comes despite an announcement by
Burma’s information minister, Kyaw Hsan, on 17 January that reporters
would be permitted.

Some 18 foreign news correspondents arrived in Naypyidaw yesterday to
cover the event, but a photojournalist said today it would be impossible
even to take a photo of the parliament building because the road leading
to it was barricaded with barbed wire.

An elected MP today said on condition of anonymity that two reporters from
a domestic Burmese news journal were visited by government authorities at
their guest house in the capital and had their names taken.

Burma has some of the world’s strictest media laws, and bans filming of
so-called sensitive material that would include parliamentary debates
unless expressly permitted to do so. Under the Electronics Act,
journalists caught filming without permission face a 10-year prison
sentence.

The CPC, which is ostensibly tasked with protecting the interests of
journalists and issuing guidelines for media practice, was set up recently
by the government’s censor board, which also enforces Burma’s draconian
press laws.

Analysts have sought to dampen expectations about the first parliamentary
session since elections in November last year. Both chambers are dominated
by the pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which won
80 percent of the vote, while a quarter of seats have already been
reserved for pre-appointed military officials who effectively carry power
of veto.

A parliament did meet in 1988 prior to the ousting of Burma’s first
dictator, Ne Win, but one has to go back to March 1962 for the last time
it met under civilian rule.

____________________________________

January 31, New Light of Myanmar
All Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw representatives arrive in Nay Pyi Taw
Representatives enjoying convenient accommodation, meals and transport

Nay Pyi Taw – All Pyithu Hluttaw representatives and Amyotha Hluttaw
representatives have arrived here to attend the Hluttaw meetings to be
commenced on 31 January 2011.

Thanks to comprehensive preparations of the authorities concerned, the
Hluttaw representatives are convenient in accommodation, meals and
transport matters.

The Hluttaw representatives today contacted the authorities concerned for
attending the Hluttaw meetings. - MNA

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 31, Thai News Agency MCOT
Two Thai soldiers wounded by artillery from Myanmar clash

Tak –  Two Thai soldiers were injured after an artillery shell from a
clash between Myanmar and ethnic Karen troops exploded on landing on the
Thai side in the northern border province of Tak Sunday night.

Third Army commander Lt Gen Wannatip Wongwai and Maj Gen Kasem Thanaporn,
commander of the Naresuan Taskforce, on Monday visited Pte Benjapon
Paokantha, 23, at hospital in Mae Sot district.

He and his companion Pte Winai Damrongpon were patrolling the border when
the shell from fighting between Myanmar Tatmadaw soldiers and the Karen
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) forces landed in front of their
Humvee armed with a heavy machine gun, carrying them on duty to patrol the
villages along the Moei River valley near the zone of the heavy fighting.

Pte Benjapon was seriously injured and his right arm was broken while Pte
Winai was injured in his right arm. They are now being treated at hospital
in Phop Phra district.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

January 31, Bangkok Post
Businesses keen on roads along border with Burma – Piyarach Chongcharoen

Business leaders in the country's central region are pushing for more road
development along the 2,193-kilometre border with Burma linking Chiang Rai
to Chumphon without running through Bangkok and surrounding cities.

Sing Tangcharoenchaichana, who heads the Federation of Thai Industries
(FTI) in the central region, said members there were now working with
government agencies to push forward a road construction project covering
several provinces: Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Mae Hong Son, Tak, Kamphaeng
Phet, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Suphan Buri, Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi,
Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, and Chumphon.

The proposed road development is meant to attract industries to expand in
the area, improving income distribution to those provinces and lifting
Thailand's competitiveness in trade, investment, tourism and employment,
he said.

Mr Sing was part of an FTI mission to Dawei in Burma from Jan 22-25 to
discuss a partnership between Dawei University and the Union of Myanmar
Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

The mission was also monitoring the progress of the 400-billion-baht Dawei
project that includes a highway linking Dawei and Kanchanaburi, a deep-sea
port and an industrial estate.

Construction of the port and highway in Dawei will be completed by 2015.

Dawei aims to be a trade hub connecting Southeast Asia and China to the
Indian Ocean, via the Andaman Sea, receiving goods from the Middle East,
Europe and Africa.

Kanchanaburi province expects to develop a special economic zone to
accommodate trade, investment and transport to the Dawei project, he said.

On growing concerns over border unrest that may affect the plan, Mr Sing
believes Burmese authorities are unlikely to close the road on a whim,
though they would try to prevent incidents that may block construction.

At a recent meeting of the Asean Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Burma
pledged to upgrade the new road to become part of the Asian Highway, an
international highway.

Kanchanaburi deputy governor Chaiwat Limwantha said the province was
accelerating efforts to turn Baan Phu Namron into a border checkpoint and
customs office to facilitate transport of construction materials and allow
investors and tourists into Dawei. The process is expected to take at most
four months.

The new customs office would facilitate the export of machinery and
equipment for the construction of the Dawei port and industrial zone. Many
Thai factories may relocate to Dawei.

The government recently unveiled plans to construct two motorways - a Bang
Yai-Nakhon Pathom-Muang Kanchanaburi route and another from Muang
Kanchanaburi to Baan Phu Namron to connect to Dawei.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 31, The Economist
Aung San Suu Kyi (virtually) at Davos

Singapore – Unable to come herself last week to the annual world business
leaders’ knees-up at Davos in Switzerland, Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of
Myanmar’s democracy movement, got to address the assembled grandees by
audio link instead (or read  the text here). The timing, on Friday January
28th, was significant. It might have been Davos week, but it was also just
a few days before the opening of Myanmar’s first parliament in the
country’s new purpose-built capital, Naypyidaw.

The country’s military rulers would have people believe that the new
parliament, along with November’s general elections—not to mention the
release of Miss Suu Kyi herself from house arrest—all signify a democratic
transition under way.

Miss Suu Kyi, however, mentioned none of the above to her Davos audience.
Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), believes that the
whole show is a sham, designed to curry support for a repressive military
regime that in fact has no intention of fundamentally changing its ways.
Indeed, as if to prove the point, that very same day, on January 28th,
Myanmar’s highest court threw out an appeal against the government’s
dissolution of the NLD as a political party. The NLD had been banned for
refusing to take part in what it regarded as the fraudulent elections in
November.

Instead, Miss Suu Kyi’s remarks dwelt on the economic hardships that her
people have been experiencing, and her own sense of isolation during her
years under house arrest. She pointed out how far Myanmar has fallen
behind other countries, and how economic integration with the rest of the
world is now necessary. Before the junta, when the independent country was
still called Burma, its prospects for trade and prosperity looked as rich
as any in South-East Asia.

Intriguingly, Miss Suu Kyi asked for more investment in technology and
infrastructure, but said that investors “should pay close attention to the
costs and collateral damage of our development, whether environmental or
social.” Furthermore, she urged “those who have invested or who are
thinking of investing in Burma to put a premium on respect for law, on
environmental and social factors, on the rights of workers, on job
creation and on the promotion of technological skills.”

There is a very lively debate going on among pro-democracy activists as to
whether it is yet time to call for the end of sanctions by Western
countries; but I don’t think these comments of Miss Suu Kyi’s were aimed
at the foreign governments. Rather, I think she was speaking to Chinese,
Thai and other Asian investors who are coming in and, by all accounts,
doing great damage to many of Myanmar’s minority communities and to its
environmental resources—the Chinese in particular. I don’t expect Miss Suu
Kyi’s appeals to change things very much, but I hope it focuses fresh
attention on the misdeeds of those investors who are already operating in
Myanmar.

____________________________________

January 28, Kansas City Star (US)
For ethnic Karen immigrants, life in KC is a dream after a nightmare –
Donald Bradley

Paw Wah Tamla bounces between getting her people to remember and forget.

Her people are the Karen who fled oppression to come here from a land they
still call Burma.

As a community leader, she wants them to remember their proud history and
customs. For several weeks, she’s helped plan today’s celebration of the
Karen New Year, a pageant complete with traditional costumes, food and
dance.

But as a parent liaison for the North Kansas City School District, she
works to get them to forget the crude ways of the refugee camps along the
Thai-Myanmar border where they all lived before coming to Kansas City.

She tells them they can’t let toddlers go outside to play unattended in a
big city. When children have to go to the bathroom at school, they can’t
just run somewhere and drop their pants.

But in just hours of flight time, the Karen families went from jungle
camps to American suburbia. From open sewers and no electricity to
subdivisions, Starbucks and schools with media labs.

Tamla, 31, who lived half her life in one of those refugee camps, tells of
a little girl who got hot in her North Kansas City district classroom.

“She took off her shirt and used it to fan herself,” she said. “Her
parents didn’t understand why she can’t do that.”

•••

“Security” seemingly is one of the first English words learned by the Karen.

Men who struggle to say where they work or what they do or even how old
they are will quickly cite “security” as the best thing about coming to
America.

“Security is good here,” Eh Tee Ta said haltingly one morning this week.
He was waiting in the snow outside a North Kansas City apartment complex
waiting for seven other Karen to crowd into his white Dodge Caravan for
the ride to a meat processing plant in St. Joseph.

History explains his mindset.

The Karen, one of several ethnic groups in Myanmar (formerly Burma),
suffered years of oppression by Burmese kings. Things improved under the
years of British colonial rule, but after World War II the Karen again
found themselves at odds with the country’s leaders.

Burmese nationalists, who would run the country, had sided with the
Japanese invaders during the early part of the war while the Karen fought
with the British and Americans.

After the war, in 1948, Burma became an independent state, free of British
influence. In 1988, a group of generals seized power and established a
repressive military junta to rule the country, which they renamed Myanmar
(the U.S. government, in support of opposition forces, still uses
“Burma”).

The junta unleashed a reign of terror against the Karen and other ethnic
groups. Persecution, forced labor, imprisonment, relocation and torture.
Thousands fled across the border to refugee camps in Thailand. With
nowhere to go after that, they stayed for years.

During Tamla’s 17 years in a camp, one of her brothers died; another
disappeared and hasn’t been seen since. Her father also perished.

“He wasn’t that sick, but there was no modern equipment to help treat
him,” she said.

A few years ago, with the help of agencies such as Jewish Vocational
Services, the Karen finally were allowed to migrate as part of a
resettlement program.

Nearly a thousand made their way to this area, settling mostly in Kansas
City, Kan., and the Northland.

“I knew immediately we would need help — someone to communicate with these
people,” said Laura Lukens, ELL (English language learners) program
coordinator for the North Kansas City School District.

“They had lived in horrible conditions for years. Warehoused. Little
better than animals. Some of the kids had never been to school. They
didn’t speak English. I knew the learning curve would be very steep.”

As part of a child nutrition program, on Fridays the district sent snacks
home for students. The Karen children’s snacks came back Monday unopened.
They didn’t know what the Vienna sausages were.

In August 2008, the district hired Tamla as a link to the families. Rice
is now the weekend snack.

Tamla had worked with the Karen Women Organization, a relief agency in the
camps, and through that work later studied in South Africa and the
Philippines.

So she spoke English and knew ways of the modern world.

And how much did her new clients know when they arrived?

She smiled. “Nothing.”

•••

On a recent cold Saturday afternoon inside a church in Kansas City, Kan.,
teenage girls in pink and lavender dresses and white scarves on their
heads walk across a stage.

This is rehearsal for today’s New Year and Revolutionary Day celebration
that will take place at J.C. Harmon High School, 2400 Steele Road. The
event that runs from noon to 10 p.m. is sponsored by the Karen Community
of Kansas City. The public is invited.

Tamla directs the teens, most of whom, despite being here for only a short
time, are dressed like typical American youth. Sweatshirts, backward caps,
baggy pants. One girl wears a purple T-shirt that says. “Only vampires
will love you forever.”

Like other immigrant groups, the teens’ English is better than their
parents because of school.

The skits, music and dance are important, Tamla says. The young must
remember the good parts of their homeland.

But some of the skits depict the Burmese brutality against the Karen.

The boys in the group know that well. Some want to join the U.S. Army
after graduation and learn to fight so they can someday return to their
homeland and kill those who terrorized their people.

Eh Hitkaw, 17, a junior at North Kansas City High School, spent 10 years
in a camp.

“What they did to me and my family wasn’t right,” he said this week.

•••

Tamla crawls on the floor from mother to mother.

Each of the Karen women has a stack of mail and no idea what the words mean.

Doctor bills, insurance explanations of benefits, notices from schools
about shots, bus routes and parent-teacher conferences.

Tamla speaks Karen to a mother, who nods when she understands.

Tamla says she will make telephone calls for her, then moves on to the
next mother. Despite the seven or eight barefoot children, the apartment
is roomy because it has hardly any furniture. The Karen families work hard
and live in the midst of American plenty, but they have little.

Several bulk-sized bags of rice take up a kitchen shelf. The TV is a
12-inch. About the only wall decor is a U.S. map.

Tamla, who smiles easily, has arrived early to go over the mail and also
because she’s brought donated toys for the children. But her main purpose
is to translate for the district’s parent educator who soon arrives to
check on the progress of the children.

“This little girl should be in a booster seat,” Amy Hines tells a mother.

She then turns to Tamla. “This little girl should be in a booster seat.”

Tamla repeats the message in Karen. The mother nods.

Hines has brought the seat and shows the mothers how it is used.

One then puts a child in the seat. Backward.

“Car seats, immunizations, even birthdays — they don’t know,” Hines said
later. “They don’t know you can’t let a 2-year-old out by themselves.”

Some of them also don’t know they can’t send out a young child to walk to
a school that might be miles away. It’s happened. That’s how children got
to school in the camps. But on dirt paths, not busy suburban streets.

Those are the things Tamla hopes to change. She lives in one of the same
apartment buildings as several other Karen. Her mother and fiance live
there, too. Like many Karen men, he works at the meatpacking plant in St.
Joseph.

The living room wall of the apartment is covered with Karen flags, photos
and other reminders of Burma.

She wants her people to remember.

Except for the parts she needs them to forget.

____________________________________

January 31, Agence France Presse
Myanmar refugee sets himself alight in Australia

Sydney — A Myanmar refugee being held in Australian immigration detention
was treated in hospital Monday after trying to set himself on fire,
refugee advocates said.

The immigration department confirmed that a detainee was taken to hospital
after a "small fire" at the Northern Immigration Detention Centre in
Darwin about 2:30 am (1700 GMT Sunday), but indicated the person was
unhurt.

"We are not speculating on the cause of the fire but the detainee had no
injuries," a spokeswoman told AFP.

"(They have) since been discharged and returned to the centre," she said,
adding that federal police were investigating the incident. The asylum
seeker was back at the centre about eight hours after the incident.

Advocates from the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre said the inmate was from
Myanmar and had "set himself on fire last night in desperation" after
eight months of uncertainty about his application.

The ASRC said the man had been granted refugee status but his visa was
being held up by security checks.

"He was desperate to get out of detention because (he was) fearing for the
lives of his children back home and (was) powerless to help them in
detention," the ASRC said on its Twitter feed.

"He was so fearful for his kids he previously asked to be sent home
despite his own life being in danger so as to save his kids."

The man had "begged to be released or returned or at least told when he
would come out of detention" before setting himself alight, the ASRC said.

Public broadcaster ABC, citing sources inside the centre, also reported
that the man was from Myanmar and had attempted to ignite himself.

Immigration officials would not comment on the detainee's gender,
nationality or the status of their application.

Tensions are high in Australia's immigration centres after a record 6,500
refugees arrived by leaky fishing boat from Indonesia last year,
stretching facilities to capacity. Most are from Afghanistan, Sri Lanka
and Iraq.

Hunger strikes and protests have flared recently after a refugee boat
smashed into rocks at remote Christmas Island, killing about 50 people,
and Canberra announced a push to forcibly deport failed Afghan asylum
claimants.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 31, TIME
Was Burma's opening of Parliament significant? – Hannah Beech

Deep in the heart of Burma's remote new capital Naypyidaw, a most unusual
event occurred on the morning of January 31. More then 600 legislators
gathered in a lavish, palace-like hall for the country's first
parliamentary session in 22 years. Technically, nearly five decades of
military rule in Burma had ended.

But if the landmark gathering gave the illusion of a new political era in
a country governed by the army since 1962, the reality was quite
different. "New bottle, same wine," joked Win Tin, a veteran opposition
politician whose popular National League for Democracy (NLD) has no seats
in the new parliament because it boycotted last November's elections.
"It's the same army men in charge. Everyone knows that convening a
parliament and saying there is a transition to civilian rule is nonsense.
We know where the real power lies."

Indeed, although the military junta has boasted about setting Burma on a
path to what it calls a discipline-flourishing democracy, the regulations
governing the milestone legislative session showed just how isolated and
repressive Burma's rulers still are. Foreign journalists were barred from
attending the event. Parliamentary laws introduced in January restrict
freedom of information. One rule, for instance, states that any non-MP who
enters the parliament building without prior approval can be jailed for
one year. Lawmakers themselves are not allowed to bring any electronic
equipment, including cellphones, cameras or recording devices, into
parliament. Nor can they even ask a question without going through an
arcane process that takes more than a week. Even the oddly precise timing
of the opening of parliament — 8:55 a.m. — was widely seen as a move by
the astrologically obsessed junta members to secure the most auspicious
time to inaugurate their rubber-stamp body.

At first glance, the past few months have brought what seem like major
shifts in Burma's political topography. On Nov. 7, the country held its
first elections in two decades, allowing an entire generation of young
Burmese to vote for the first time. Six days after the polls, Nobel Peace
Prize laureate and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was released from
more than seven years of house arrest. The NLD, which Suu Kyi founded, won
a landslide in the country's last polls back in 1990, but the junta
ignored the results and locked her up for most of the intervening two
decades.

But three months after these watersheds events of November, Burma feels
essentially unchanged. Although Suu Kyi's NLD proudly inaugurated its
website the same day that parliament held its first session, the party is
no longer a legal political force. Many of the legislators now sitting in
the improbably grand parliament building in Naypyidaw are hardly the
people's choice. Due to likely voter intimidation and alleged ballot-box
shenanigans, the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party
(USDP) won around 80% of the November vote. Its elected representatives in
parliament include business cronies of the junta and officers who recently
retired from the military in order to participate in what is officially
supposed to be a civilian process.

Those opposition parties that dared to participate in the polls, including
a slew of ethnically based parties and the NLD breakaway National
Democratic Force (NDF), won far fewer seats than international observers
believe they should have. With one-quarter of parliamentary seats
designated for military appointees, the opposition's power in parliament
is paltry. Add to that the fact that top leadership positions are reserved
for those with military backgrounds, and Win Tin's new bottle, same wine
formulation makes perfect sense. (See Suu Kyi in TIME's top 10 political
prisoners.)

One of parliament's first tasks over the coming days will be to select the
country's new President. Speculation is rife as to whether current junta
leader Than Shwe, an elderly former postal worker and Psy-Ops specialist,
will want the position or whether he will prefer to keep the post of
Burma's commander-in-chief. (By law one person cannot hold both titles.)
An alternative candidate for President may be Thura Shwe Mann, a
battle-hardened general famous for his loyalty to Than Shwe and for his
brutal campaigns against ethnic Karen rebels. Either way, the President
will not face much of a check from parliament, which for the most part
cannot legally challenge him.

Just a few days before the parliament convened, Burma's supreme court
rejected an appeal by the NLD to have the political party recognized as a
legal entity. Because the NLD decided to boycott the November polls, which
it rightly believed would be neither free nor fair, the party was ordered
dissolved by Burma's election commission in September. NLD elders have
talked about retooling the party either as a shadow political engine or as
a civil-society force. But both paths are untested.

A political landscape with only a modicum of opposition presence in
parliament and a totally absent NLD sounds like a bleak scenario for
democratic progress in Burma. The lack of interest that many Burmese have
shown in both the elections and the convening of the new parliament shows
just how removed they believe their lives are from stage-managed Burmese
politics. Around one-third of Burmese live under the poverty line; no
parliament will change that in the near future.

Nevertheless, change, if only at a glacial pace, may still come. Although
many Western nations maintain economic sanctions on the regime, an influx
of investment from neighboring Asian countries has brought a flood of
money into Burma's natural-resources sector. This month, Burma unveiled a
Special Economic Zone law, although what exactly this means is not yet
clear. Most of that money has ended up — and no doubt will continue to end
up — in the pockets of the generals or their business cronies. Still, more
foreign investment could make life better for some Burmese, if only
because of improved telecommunications, better roads and even menial jobs
associated with foreign projects. (Of course, the Burmese army has also
shown little compunction in employing forced labor and forcing farmers off
their land with little compensation to make way for future projects.)

"Change in Burma will come through politics and also economics," says Kyaw
Win, a Burmese political analyst in Rangoon, the country's largest city
and former capital. "But we have to be patient." Sadly, that's the one
quality the Burmese, who have witnessed the slow devolution of their
homeland for nearly five decades, possess in large supply.

____________________________________

January 30, Bangkok Post
Egyptian troubles paralleled in Burma – Editorial

For the second week in a row the big news story is a crumbling
dictatorship in the Middle East. While it's still to soon to say if
Egypt's Hosni Mubarak will share the same fate as Tunisian strongman Zine
el-Abidine Ben Ali, yesterday protesters controlled many parts of Cairo.
Mr Mubarak has vowed he will not be removed, and as long as the military
stands with him, he is probably right.

The situation is similar to one much closer to home, in Burma, where the
chances of regime change seem much more remote. If anything, the political
situation in Burma is more dismal. In Burma, of course, it is the military
leadership who actually have the ruling power, despite the pretence of
transferring power to a civilian government through the sham elections of
last November.

The parliament elected then will begin its duties in the new capital of
Naypyidaw tomorrow, but the military leaders have made sure it will act as
a rubber stamp to all they propose.

In Burma, as perhaps in Egypt, there would probably have to be a mass
defection in the lower ranks of the military along with a popular revolt
to bring about a change in government. But as revealed in the story on
page 10 of this week's Spectrum, ''Film offers glimpse of dissent in
army'', this might not be as far-fetched many people might think.

There are other parallels between the situations in Burma and Egypt.
Before Nobel laureate and pro-democracy leader Mohamed ElBaradei returned
to his native Egypt to take part in the protests there and was put under
house arrest _ much like Nobel laureate and pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi _ he gave an interview in Austria. Mr Baradei noted that Egypt had
parliamentary elections only two months ago, and ''they were completely
rigged. The party of President Hosni Mubarak left the opposition with only
3%. Imagine that. And the American government said that it was dismayed.
Well, frankly, I was dismayed that all it could say is that it was
dismayed. The word was hardly adequate to express the way the Egyptian
people felt.''

If we substitute Egypt for Burma and America for Asean, the story looks
familiar.

Like the US and other Western nations, Thailand in particular has long
found it politically and financially expedient to do business with a
repressive regime while periodically offering mild reproaches.

When Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva went to Naypyidaw and was
photographed shaking hands with Senior General Than Shwe last October, it
was clear from the look on the PM's face that he wouldn't be framing the
photo and hanging it over his mantle.

But Mr Abhisit put whatever misgivings he may have had aside and thought
instead of the benefits that greater trade and investment in Burma would
bring to Thai companies, one of which has the contract to develop the
deep-sea port in Dawei, on Burma's stretch of the Andaman Sea. Mr Abhisit
is no different than previous Thai premiers who have made similar economic
calculations, just as Barack Obama is no different from his predecessors
who compromised themselves over Egypt, although in the case of the US, the
considerations have been driven as much by security as economics.

The point is not that Thailand should cut off relations with Burma
entirely. It is likely better to try to effect change through engagement,
and particularly to insist on high environmental and human rights
standards for any projects with Thai investment.

Mrs Suu Kyi herself has not condemned foreign investment in Burma
outright. In fact, in an audio message to the affluent crowd at the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last week, she encouraged it, if it
is done with a conscience.

''I would like to request those who have invested or who are thinking of
investing in Burma to put a premium on respect for the law, on
environmental and social factors, on the rights of workers, on job
creation and on the promotion of technological skills,'' she said.

The Thai government says it does regard these areas as a priority, but
it's not clear that this has been expressed in any formal agreements or
contracts involving Burma.

____________________________________

January 31, Democratic Voice of Burma
This parliament makes a mockery of democracy – Larry Jagan

Burma’s first parliament has opened in the capital Naypyidaw in strict
secrecy. This first sitting of the parliament in 22 years is meant to be a
watershed, with the introduction of a new form of civilian government to
replace the past two decades of naked military rule. But it is nothing
more than a thinly disguised military dictatorship.

Disciplined democracy, as the junta leader prefers to dub his military
plan to try and gain international legitimacy, is nothing but another
charade. The reality is that while some structural changes are being
introduced – a new president, parliament, civilian government and regional
assemblies – little will in fact be different from the past.

Than Shwe will remain in power – though perhaps not formally – and the new
administration will be virtually all made up of former military men. After
months of speculation, it seems certain now that the current prime
minister, Thein Sein, will become the president when parliament nominates
and votes for the position in the coming days.

Most of the current ministers will also be re-appointed, with a few deputy
ministers taking over the top portfolio, including Maung Myint, who is
tipped to become the new foreign minister. Former key military commanders
will become chief ministers of the states. General Myint Swe (the former
Bureau of Special Operation chief for Rangoon) not surprisingly will
become Rangoon Division chief minister, and General Ye Myint (former
Bureau of Special Operation chief for Mandalay) will become the Mandalay
Division chief minister.

Despite the massive propaganda in the last few months, Than Shwe has
finally baulked at introducing anything that might damage his authority
and lead to a pluralist system.

In fact Than Shwe has opted to keep his tried and trusted lieutenants in
power. The new civilian government will be in name only, as there is
unlikely to be any room for civilians in the cabinet given that Than Shwe
does not trust them.

His biggest concern of course is to ensure that the new political system
would never provide an avenue for an army successor to build up sufficient
support and power to overthrow him in the way he removed his predecessor,
Saw Maung. The fate of Ne Win and Saw Maung haunts the Burmese military
leader, according to sources in his family circle.

He has been so mesmerised by trying to avoid this that he has finally
opted to make Thein Sein – who has been a ‘civilian’ general for some time
now – prime minister instead of the former general, Thura Shwe Mann. But
the former number three in the ruling State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) is to be trusted with the crucial position of speaker of the lower
house and will effectively control the day to day running of the
parliament, and hence much of government.

Than Shwe is a very cautious man at best and the thought of loosening his
grip on power has given him nightmares for years, with his wife in
particular urging him to remain in the saddle for as long as possible. But
the senior general has promised his neighbours, especially the countries
of ASEAN, China and India, that change was in the pipeline but that he
could not back down completely. A clear sign that he is not comfortable
even with his own changes however is apparent: the new military-civilian
government, including the president, is only an interim administration,
and unlikely to remain in place for more than a year.

Than Shwe has already warned the future government that if it fails to
meet his expectations, the army will lead another coup to make sure the
country follows the military’s model of development and governance.

It is still unclear how often the parliament will meet and how long any
session will be, though sources in Naypyidaw say it is to run for two
weeks from its first sitting, after it elects the new president and the
two vice presidents. It will then approve the Cabinet appointees –
selected by the new president – and the chief ministers by the respective
regional parliaments.

The whole strategic plan was outlined to the remaining generals in the
SPDC at its recent quarterly meeting, which is likely to be its last. And
the future cabinet ministers and chief ministers met Than Shwe last Friday
in the capital and were given their final instructions. So much for
democracy – the senior general is leaving nothing to chance.

A new political structure will be unveiled in the coming days, but it’s
only an adaptation of the current power structure, with few checks and
balances. For one thing, Than Shwe and Maung Aye will remain in the
current positions – effectively in control of the army for at least
another year, according to sources in Naypyidaw. They will also be on the
National Defence and Security Council – a new body that will supervise the
army and appoint the chiefs in future.

With the army remaining tightly under his control, Than Shwe has
engineered a political system that will cascade down from his position at
the top of the political pyramid. A triumvirate controls the ruling party,
the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP): the three patrons –
Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann – will exercise control of the
party.

The one thing that appears to be emerging is that power will be more
diffuse than before – deliberately to minimise any challenge to his
authority. While Than Shwe remains in good health he may be able to
manipulate the political process to his own end. But his balance of power
approach will rekindle personal ambitions and resentments, as has happened
before in the time of Khin Nyunt and his military intelligence network.

The fault lines will emerge again, this time amongst the middle-ranking
and junior officers who may feel they have been mistreated and had their
access to money-making ventures curtailed by the ‘new’ civilian
administrators who may no longer feel beholden to the up-coming generation
of military leaders. They may also realise, as Khin Nyunt and his coterie
did earlier, that unless Burma manages to open up to the world, and
benefit from greater global trade and foreign investment – their future
may well be a limited one.

The dangers of even ‘benign’ autocratic rule that continues to ignore the
interests of the people at large have been pointedly illustrated again in
the last couple of weeks – with massive unrest sweeping through North
Africa and parts of the Middle East. Than Shwe has been horrified by the
scenes on television broadcast from Eygpt, according to sources close to
the top general.

This may have been the final straw that made the senior general heed his
wife’s persistent urging not to give up power – or at least to remain
securely in control. The irony is that the tighter he maintains his grip,
the more likely there is to be a backlash. For one thing, there are two
generals, Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann, who will be very disgruntled at
Than Shwe’s current plans.

____________________________________

January 31, Myanmar Times
Business boom beckons in Myanmar – Luc de Waegh

Myanmar’s November 7 elections look set to change the business environment
in the country. Expectations about the elections may be low but they might
bring a new mindset to the governance of the country.

Even in the existing business environment, Myanmar’s international
reintegration through growing foreign direct investment (FDI) has begun.
Though challenging, it is not impossible to develop accountable businesses
in Myanmar and opportunities are seen to be growing.

The majority of reactions from senior executives (mostly western) who have
visited Myanmar for the first time is: “This is much better than what I
was expecting.” Rarely is it heard for an executive, or any visitor to
state: “This is exactly what I was expecting.”

The first word that comes to mind when talking about doing business in
Myanmar is sanctions. Since 1988, many countries have issued a number of
sanctions against Myanmar. From my experience on the ground, the sanctions
are – in their vast majority – at best ineffective and in most cases
counterproductive. They have, however, helped deteriorate perceptions of
Myanmar to the point of keeping most large companies away and even keeping
development and humanitarian aid away.

With 55 million people, Myanmar ranks 24 in the world in terms of
population. For many multinational corporations (MNC), Myanmar is the
largest market – in terms of number of consumers – where they don’t have
an active presence. The country provides access to the two most populated
and fastest growing economies in the world, China and India. The
population of neighbouring countries totals 2.8 billion, or 40 percent of
the world’s population.

The integration process of the Myanmar economy has started.

In the four months between March and July 2010, about $16 billion of FDI
were committed to Myanmar. This is as much as the total FDI committed
during the previous 22 years. This figure does not include the recently
confirmed Dawei deep-sea port project, which is estimated at $13 billion.
Recent investments are mainly in oil and gas, electricity production and
the mining sectors. China accounts for more than 65pc of recent
investments. Thailand ranks a distant second at 18pc.

It becomes increasingly clear that while some countries hang on to their
sanctions, others have opted for an accelerated economic engagement. This
has the potential of being good news for the people of Myanmar, not only
because prosperity is an important factor for social stability, but also
because people’s main aspiration remains an improvement of their everyday
material life.

There is however room for a better balance in the source of FDIs that
would deliver stronger overall development perspectives. Western countries
in particular have a role to play by allowing – if not encouraging – their
first-class accountable multinational companies to invest in Myanmar.
Earlier this year, Unilever, a large European consumer goods company
decided to go back to Myanmar, after having pulled out eight years ago.
This is not only creating hundreds of quality jobs and changing the life
of thousands of ordinary Myanmar people, but is also raising the standards
of the industry for the benefit of all consumers.

In 1993 a large UK-listed consumer goods company, British American Tobacco
(BAT), commenced operations in Myanmar. BAT’s investment was a
demonstration of the role large MNCs can play in the development process:
Fair and competitive salary structures; health insurance; in some cases
pension funds; opportunities for further training and development;
exposure to the rest of the world (through training and temporary
postings); equal opportunity practices; and so forth.

Listed MNCs must comply with increasingly strict disclosure regulations
and greater transparency. They have only one set of standards that are
applicable worldwide: These deal with the respect of the local laws,
employment terms, corruption, treatment of the environment, CSR programs
and more. In setting these new standards MNCs are leading by example:
People would much prefer to work for companies that offer better
employment terms and better development prospects and consumers prefer to
buy products that are safe and guaranteed by accountable manufacturers.
Other companies will have to adapt in order to stay in business.

The country’s legal system – inherited from the British – is working
reasonably well. The British brought their basics of the English Common
Law to India and codified it. The Laws in Myanmar were the same laws that
the British passed in India with a few minor exceptions, but basically
laws dealing with business and commerce are still intact. The Code of
Civil Procedure originated as the India Act 1908, the Workmen’s
Compensation Act as the India Act 1923. When Myanmar became independent in
1948, the names changed to Myanmar act. The Indian Company Law became the
Myanmar Companies Law. Myanmar has been a member of the World Intellectual
Property Organization (WIPO) since 2001. As such the country has committed
to provide effective means of enforcing intellectual property rights.

In a recent case, where a local party registered a well known foreign
brand and logo as its own in a local Registrar of Deeds in Myanmar, the
Supreme Court in the appeal observed inter alia that the party that had
registered the trade mark had no right to it as he had copied the trade
mark of a foreign company and was not the party’s invention and therefore
had no right to the brand and logo.

Qualified auditors practicing at international standards levels are
available.

As for market research, MMRD (Myanmar Marketing Research and Development),
the leading agency, is equipped to provide all market research services
available in more developed economies.

But the brightest side of doing business in Myanmar is definitely the
people. There is an abundance of committed men and women eager to learn,
develop new skills and try their very best to contribute to the success of
new ventures.

Things are changing in Myanmar on many fronts. Obviously a new form of
government will take charge after the November 7 elections, but this is
not the only change coming to Myanmar.

Myanmar’s isolation has undoubtedly led to deterioration in infrastructure
and industries, but this has also provided opportunities for investment
today. Thailand’s proximity has already enabled companies like ItalThai,
PTTEP and CP to establish a growing presence.

Oil, gas and mining industries, alongside associated service industries,
are set to expand in the coming years, buoyed in no small part by
Thailand’s own domestic demands. Similarly, as Thai companies have
expanded into neighbouring countries to the east, the agricultural sector,
including manual and mechanical tools, pumps, fertilisers and crop
protection, will provide lucrative returns in this largely agrarian
society.

Fast moving consumer goods, the “affordable luxuries” also offer strong
market potential with an existing consumer base and low entry cost. For
Thai-based manufacturers there is the possibility of existing brand
awareness created by intensive border trade, a scenario that is shared by
other consumer goods including pharmaceuticals, white goods and
electronics.

Given Myanmar’s professed moves toward democracy, leading to greater
engagement by governments, businesses and aid agencies, the prospect of
sanctions being eased or removed looms. If so, textile industries, and in
general all labour-intensive, export-orientated industries will bloom, as
will the tourism sector.

There are currently 90 flights weekly between Bangkok and Yangon. A
successful completion of the first elections in 20 years would only build
confidence and lead to further investigation of investment opportunities.
As with business opportunities in Thailand, a sound corporate legal
structure, trusted local partner and advisor combined with good diligence
could yield lucrative returns for investors.

Luc de Waegh is the managing partner of West Indochina, an advisory firm
that has specialised in developing businesses in Myanmar. He has 17 years
experience of doing business in Southeast Asia, mainly in Myanmar and
advises local and foreign companies on setting up, growing and selling
their businesses.

____________________________________

January 31, The Straits Times (Singapore)
Way forward for Asean and EU on Myanmar; New Parliament opening today
offers opportunity for re-engagement – Jonathan Eyal

Myanmar’s newly elected Parliament is scheduled to meet for the first time
today, three months after the military-ruled nation's first elections in
two decades.

This should have been a perfect opportunity for Western governments to
re-engage with a country they pointedly still call 'Burma'. That's
precisely what Asean foreign ministers suggested last week, calling on
Europe and the United States to lift their economic sanctions.

But the silence from the West has been deafening, despite most governments
knowing that their current approach is counter-productive.

Since the mid-1990s, the European Union (EU) and the US - as well as
Australia, Canada and New Zealand - have slapped various sanctions against
Myanmar. These include a ban on trade in weapons, timber, gems and metals,
as well as visa restrictions on members of the regime and the suspension
of development aid programmes.

There are several reasons why Western governments - which have no
difficulties in dealing with other authoritarian regimes - continue to
ostracise Myanmar.

One is psychological. Myanmar experienced a popular uprising in 1988, just
when communist Eastern Europe underwent similar upheavals. This led
Europeans to see Myanmar as, somehow, part of their march to freedom. The
annulment of its free elections in 1990 shattered the myth of the
much-talked-about 'end of history', the triumph of democracy.

The personality of Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, the country's chief opposition
leader, also played a part. Physically frail but politically unbreakable,
she became the West's latter-day Mahatma Gandhi, a champion of freedom.

A ferocious lobbying offensive against Myanmar has also done its bit. The
Burma Campaign is one of Britain's most effective pressure groups.

Ultimately, however, the real reason for sanctions is that, despite
Myanmar's vast natural wealth, it was never a major trading partner of the
West. Ostracising Myanmar entailed few costs.

But the outcome is a disaster. Dr Niklas Swanstrom, who heads Sweden's
Institute for Security and Development Policy, says: 'What we see today in
Myanmar is not a weakened government, but stronger governmental control of
resources and people.'

The only ones to suffer are the ordinary people in a country which started
its independence as one of Asia's richest states but now ranks 138th out
of 182 nations on the United Nations Human Development Index.

Asean's appeal for the end of sanctions is based on two chief arguments:
that a new generation of military officers will soon come to power and
should be encouraged to be more open-minded, and that a boost in trade and
aid will give Myanmar's rulers further incentives, as well as alleviate
the population's suffering.

But many Western politicians are not persuaded, noting the military has
held power for two generations and there is no proof the next will be any
different.

The claim that economic development would follow the lifting of sanctions
is also doubtful. This can happen only if the economy is freed from
political control and if Myanmar's rulers accept the need to improve their
people's welfare.

For the moment, neither seems likely. The country's revenue is steadily
increasing, but the population gets next to nothing: Less than 2 per cent
of the national budget is allocated to health and education combined.

Indeed, a good case can be made that lifting sanctions will make little
difference. Myanmar's raw materials are controlled by Chinese or Indian
corporations. Tourism is already not restricted. Western firms determined
to benefit from Myanmar's opportunities are already there.

Other business may never come. Why, for instance, should Western garment
companies go to Myanmar, when Bangladesh, Cambodia or Vietnam already
offer abundant cheap labour as well as better transport infrastructure?

'The logic of gradual change through engagement, development aid and trade
has no empirical basis in the history of meaningful social change from
dictatorships in either the East or the West,' says Dr Maung Zarni, a
noted Myanmar human rights activist, now a research fellow at the London
School of Economics.

Since the political backlash from noisy non-governmental organisations is
likely to be fierce and the economic benefits likely to be low, few
Western governments have an incentive to abandon the sanctions. Indeed,
even Ms Suu Kyi herself does not favour a lifting of sanctions, the
Financial Times reported this past weekend.

Nevertheless, a way forward does exist. The Europeans have noted that
Asean's latest initiative goes beyond a call to lift sanctions, to include
a pledge to help break Myanmar's internal political impasse. As Indonesian
Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa put it last week, 'lifting the ban and
reconciliation should go hand in hand'.

More importantly, the US is already pledged to a new 'pragmatic
engagement' with Myanmar. Little has emerged from Washington since this
policy shift announced in September 2009 but the US is clearly searching
for alternatives.

The real challenge, therefore, is one of timing. Asean is unlikely to get
a formal, public promise from either the EU or the US to lift sanctions at
this early stage.

But it is entitled to demand - in private - a pledge from Western
governments to respond quickly and positively to any future political
concessions which Asean may extract from Myanmar. The sanctions could be
lifted in stages, with the most symbolic ones remaining for a longer
period.

Europe will probably not take the first step. Still, if the US can be
persuaded to move together with Asean, the EU can be cornered into
changing its stance.

The Asean appeal has succeeded in one respect: in reminding Western
governments that their failed policies on Myanmar are overdue for review.
But the hard work of delivering on engagement with Myanmar still lies
ahead. Either way, nothing further can now be gained by continuing with
the megaphone diplomacy and public finger-pointing between Asean and the
West.