[LEAPSECS] the year 2100

[Brooks Harris]

On 2015-02-02 09:17 PM, Steve Allen wrote:
> On Wed 2015-01-28T17:05:16 +0000, Poul-Henning Kamp hath writ:
>> So why don't you simply list all the estimates as we find them ?
>>
>> As far as I can tell, these guesses/estimates are not inferior to
>> the ones you already list ?
>>
>> Listing them all would be sound science, and maybe the good ol'
>> "Trust the median" will eventually help us, given enough estimates ?
> I'm not so sure about that median.  I remember that science by vote
> said the spiral nebulae were inside our own galaxy.  Predicting the
> evolution of Delta T remains akin to predicting the weather in the
> core of the earth, the amount of sea level rise, etc.

Are these studies perhaps a start at "predicting the weather in the core 
of the earth"?

- An accelerating high-latitude jet in Earth’s core
http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2859.epdf

"Large-scale changes in axisymmetric core-flow affect the net angular 
momentum of the core, and therefore of the mantle; however, the jets we 
computed have a significant non-axisymmetric component, and therefore do 
not have a simple signature in change in length of day. "

- Recent geomagnetic secular variation from Swarm and ground 
observatories as estimated in the CHAOS-6 geomagnetic field model
https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-016-0486-1

Note Figure 14 - I can't help notice the curve is relatively flat from 
1999 to 2006, but I'm sure its not that simple...

-Brooks

>
> I now have a framework for presenting the Delta T estimates that I
> know, and for continuing the discussion.  This web page lays them out
>
> http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/year2100.html
>
> If anyone's favorite estimate for Delta T is missing then kindly
> point out the citation for its values.
>
> --
> Steve Allen                 <sla at ucolick.org>                WGS-84 (GPS)
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