[StBernard] Predictions for Hurricane Season

[Westley Annis]

Predictions for Hurricane Season Lowered Slightly By JESSICA GRESKO, AP

MIAMI (Aug. 8) - The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season should be slightly less
active than originally predicted, federal forecasters said Tuesday.

Forecasters now expect there to be 12 to 15 named storms and seven to nine
hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center and other National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration agencies said.

Three or four could be major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111
mph, forecasters said.

Government scientists made their first prediction in May, saying the season
could produce 13 to 16 named storms, and eight to 10 hurricanes, four to six
of which could become major.

There have been only three tropical storms and no hurricanes so far, but
August through October are typically the most active months of the season.

Forecasters warned coastal residents not to let their guard down.

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing property damage from hurricanes
are responsibilities shared by all,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the
National Hurricane Center. "Remember, one hurricane hitting your
neighborhood is enough to make it a bad season.''

Federal Emergency Management Agency director R. David Paulison, who joined
NOAA officials speaking from Washington, D.C., said his agency is working
closely with state governments and would not wait for a state's relief
efforts to fail before stepping in with federal support after a hurricane.

Officials revised their forecast because of wetter than predicted conditions
over the Pacific Ocean, which forced slightly stronger upper-level winds
over the Caribbean, hurricane center meteorologist Christopher Landsea said.
Those winds can rip apart storms and stop them from becoming hurricanes.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic also are not as high as first expected,
forecasters said.

The revision follows that of forecasters at Colorado State University, who
updated their forecast Thursday. They reduced their storm estimate from nine
hurricanes to seven, and said that three instead of five of the storms could
be major. The forecasters initially had called for 17 named storms but now
predict 15.

The two forecasts still would make this season busier than long-term
averages, but in line with an increase in the Atlantic that started in 1995.
Federal forecasters say warmer waters, more moisture and other conditions
have been responsible for that increase, which could last for another decade
or longer.

Between 1995 and 2005, the Atlantic has averaged 15 named storms, just over
eight named hurricanes and four major hurricanes, according to the hurricane
center. Long-term averages are 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major
ones.

The 2005 hurricane season broke records with 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes
and seven major ones. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest natural disaster
in U.S. history, killing more than 1,500 and wiping out parts of the Gulf
Coast.

Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

08/08/06 14:44 EDT

#44