[StBernard] La. likely to lose congressional seat

[Westley Annis]

WASHINGTON - The population diaspora caused by Hurricane Katrina will likely
result in Louisiana losing one of its seven U.S. House of Representatives
seats, analysts said Thursday.
 
Though the 2010 U.S. Census that will ultimately determine the shape of the
congressional districts is still four years away, the nearly 220,000
population loss over the last year estimated by the Census Bureau indicates
that the state will have to fight to maintain its congressional power.
 
"Even if a lot of people come back, we're going to lose," said former U.S.
Rep. Clyde Holloway, R-Forest Hill. "You don't have to lose population; you
just don't have to gain."
 
Holloway knows a little about the process. He was the last Louisiana
congressman to lose his seat to reapportionment in 1992. Because of
population loss from the 1990 Census, Holloway's 8th Congressional District
was blended into the 6th Congressional District occupied by U.S. Rep.
Richard Baker, R-Baton Rouge.
 
Despite Holloway winning 15 of 17 parishes, Baker carried the day in the
city, defeating Holloway, who had served in Congress for six years.
 
"It's not a good feeling," said Holloway, a longtime nursery owner who also
serves as state director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's rural
development program. "Any time a state loses a seat, it's going to hurt."
 
Election Data Services Inc., a Washington consulting company that analyzes
state populations and congressional seats, listed Louisiana as the most
harmed state because of the population loss this year.
 
The survey agency warned in last year's report that the effects of Katrina
could result in Louisiana losing a congressional seat and Texas gaining one.
The new figures will likely make it a reality, EDSI company president
Kimball Brace said.
 
"We had an inkling," said Brace, who releases an annual report on the
subject. "Katrina-driven population loss leads to Louisiana losing a
congressional seat."
 
Brace noted that the estimate is based on current statistics and that the
state could see a population rebound before the 2010 Census for which the
congressional seats are based.
Where the congressional seat would be lost remains debatable. The
Legislature would redraw the districts.
 
The districts' makeup and whoever controls the governor's office will likely
play a "colossal" role in how the seats are drawn, said Ed Renwick, a Loyola
University political science professor.
 
"That would be a major political fight," Renwick said. "The Democrats would
want to come out on top and the Republicans would want to come out on top."
 
Currently, five Republicans - Baker, Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport, Charles
Boustany, R-Lafayette, Rodney Alexander, R-Quitman, Bobby Jindal, R-Kenner -
and two Democrats, William Jefferson, D-New Orleans, and Charlie Melancon,
D-Napoleonville, hold House seats.
 
The logical assumption would be that the loss would come from the area hit
by the storm, New Orleans, which is also where U.S. Sens. Mary Landrieu,
D-La., and David Vitter, R-La., call home.
But Renwick contends that the state would be pressured to maintain a
minority district like the 3rd Congressional District represented by
Jefferson.
"The courts would insist that there be a minority district," Renwick said.
"That would affect the districts surrounding Jefferson's district."