[StBernard] Here we go again. Weather statement

[Westley Annis]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 
124 PM CST MON JAN 1 2007 

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-020130- 
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA- 
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE- 
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES- 
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON- 
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- 
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- 
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL- 
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- 
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA... 
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER... 
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL... 
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE... 
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES... 
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART... 
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE... 
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO... 
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE... 
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT... 
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE... 
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY... 
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS... 
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA... 
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN 
124 PM CST MON JAN 1 2007 

...ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... 

THE YEAR 2006 ENDED ON A WET NOTE FOR THE GULF SOUTH AND IT 
APPEARS THAT 2007 WILL START WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL FOR 
THE GULF STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY 
DEVELOPING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PART OF THE UNITED STATES WILL 
BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS 
THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A 
WARM FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WIDESPREAD 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ONSET WEDNESDAY EVENING 
AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. 

WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS STILL NEARLY THREE DAYS OUT...EARLY 
INDICATIONS IN FORECAST MODELS...HYDROMETEOROLICAL PREDICTION 
CENTER GUIDANCE AND LOCAL EXPERTISE SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL 
COVERAGE OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS MAY BE 
ADJUSTED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS...BUT DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND 
MOST RIVERS SWOLLEN TO BANK FULL OR ALREADY IN FLOOD STATE...ANY 
LENGTHY PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD POSE A FLOOD THREAT 
ACROSS THE AREA. 

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... 
PARTICULARLY INTERESTS ALONG OR NEAR THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS 
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. IF FORECAST 
PATTERNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY 
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE 
ISSUED FOR THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. 

PREPAREDNESS MEASURES CAN BE CARRIED OUT TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL 
FLOODING. ***RESIDENTS AND BUSINESS OWNERS...AS WELL AS MUNICIPAL 
SERVICES...ARE ADVISED TO MAKE USE OF THE DRY COUPLE OF DAYS 
BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE RAINS TO CLEAR DEBRIS AND COLLECTED TRASH 
FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...CULVERTS AND CATCH BASINS. RAINFALL RUNOFF 
WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF RECENT RAINS AND 
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.***

FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE AREA HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AND 
FORECASTS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT 
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE) AND CLICK ON RIVER AND LAKES 
AHPS IN THE LEFT MENU. AND AS ALWAYS YOU CAN TUNE TO NOAA ALL 
HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL 
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. 

$$ 

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