[StBernard] Recent poll says Blanco faces hurdles getting reelected

Westley Annis westley at da-parish.com
Sun Jan 21 22:48:26 EST 2007


Recent poll says Blanco faces hurdles getting reelected
By Christopher Tidmore, Political Columnist
January 22, 2007


A new poll showing overwhelming support for Bobby Jindal has some in the
Democratic Party scrambling to find another candidate-and offers little hope
for other GOP challengers.

Southern Media and Opinion Research's Bernie Pinsonat said he had never seen
an incumbent Governor with such weak support.

After Hurricane Katrina, he said, "Her [Blanco's] numbers took a plummet, as
far as her popularity...We are now 17 months after the storm, she has not
been able to reverse or improve it."

Pinsonat's latest survey bodes ill for Blanco, "We ran a poll with Jindal
literally at 59%, and she's at 34%, so we're talking a 25 point spread for
an incumbent governor."

More frightening for the Governor was the comparison with the the Governor's
race four years ago. He admits there were more candidates in the field, but,
he explained, "In July of 2003, we had 42 percent undecided." Now, he said,
"it's four or five percent." Pinsonat tested the numbers of the only other
candidate who has publicly committed to run, regardless of Blanco's
participation, Democratic PSC Commissioner Foster Campbell. "He took a few
points away from Blanco, but he didn't phase Jindal."

The Governor dropped to 31%, but only lost one point, falling to 58%. The
reason, Pinsonat told The Louisiana Weekly, is "Jindal has 75% of white
voters." That means, the pollster said, that the strength of the Congressman
in the poll "has to do a lot with Jindal, because [Campbell] didn't phase
it."

For a Democrat to win, he or she must, according to Pinsonat, win 40% of the
white vote and then have a strong showing in the African-American community.
"Any candidate who gets 75% of white voters...is hard to beat."

The lack of an undecided electorate is more of a factor of timing. "This
race has been going on for five years," the pollster told The Louisiana
Weekly. The question he asked, "What is she going to different to change
this? Because if she doesn't change this, stick a fork in her, she's done."
"Those numbers are like a water mark," he continued, "The longer it sits in
there, the harder it is to change."

Even the Governor's failed attempts to spend the surplus to purchase some
improve political standing has not worked. "What ever she is going to
do...she has to do a better job doing it. You have a pot of gold sitting
there, and you missed an opportunity." The real question for state
Democrats, Pinsonat outlined, will be whether "they go with her or they find
someone else." Pinsonat said the telephone survey, of 600 likely Louisiana
voters, Jan. 12-14, could help Jindal's chances of keeping most other
Republican candidates out of the governor's race, but it fuels speculation
among Democrats about other possible Democratic candidates for the job.

One Democratic State Legislator, who spoke to The Louisiana Weekly on the
condition of anonymity, said, "Half the [Democratic] State Central Committee
has already committed to Campbell...They don't think she can win." Several
other party operatives have spoken of an active effort to woo former State
Democratic Chairman and Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhardt into the race. The
millionaire corporate President could self-finance a run, and enjoys wide
spread support amongst Party elders for his years of financial and
infrastructural support. In the past, Bernhardt has denied any interest in
running as long as his ally and friend Kathleen Blanco intends to stay in
office, but according to two separate sources, Bernhardt might be
reconsidering his decision.

Pinsonat, though, questions the Shaw Group magnate's appeal to Democrats. "I
doubt if he will run if Governor Blanco stays in, but if they can get her
out, what kind of candidate would he be? My personal opinion is somebody who
is rich, who lives in a mansion bigger than the Governor's Mansion, who
makes an enormous amount of money, in my opinion, he'd do better as a
Republican."

"I guess he can," Pinsonat continued, "but unless he has been very active in
the Democratic Party with poor people, in that arena, it's tough trying to
sell 'I feel your pain' when he lives in a mansion bigger than the Governor
lives in. So, I see him as a potentially an important candidate that may
enter into this race, but I have mixed emotions about a corporate CEO of a
public traded company who makes an enormous amount a year identify with the
typical Democratic voter."

The other prominent Democrat often floated as a candidate is Third District
Congressman Charlie Melancon. Hailing from Blanco's native Acadiana, the
Napoleonville Rep. would have a easy time garnering support, even against a
sitting Governor, but Melancon continues to deny any interest-especially
since his appointment to the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee
following the Democratic takeover of the U.S. House.

The governor did poorly in the survey in most areas of the state, including
her home base of Acadiana. Her strongest poll showing was in north
Louisiana. There, 46 percent of voters said they would choose Blanco over
Jindal and 47 percent said they would choose Jindal in a head-to-head race.
Blanco's support among Democrats was at 53 percent in the Southern Media
poll, and she garnered only 19 percent of white voters, who make up 66
percent of all 2.8 million voters in Louisiana. Her strongest numbers came
from black males, 82 percent of whom said they would choose Blanco over
Jindal.

There is a worry among some senior Republicans that Jindal may not be able
to attract rural white voters, that normally vote Republican, but turned to
Blanco four years ago. There is not doubt that racial factors played a role
in Jindal's defeat in 2003. He did better than Republicans normally do in
the major cities carrying 56% of the vote in Sheveport, versus the 49% Suzie
Terrell had won just the year before, and 32% of the vote in the Crescent
City to Blanco's 68% -- or a margin of loss of 49,741 votes. When one
considers Terrell, an Uptown native, lost 80/20, an almost 80,000 vote
margin, and Woody Jenkins by almost 100,000 votes, that was an extraordinary
result for a GOP candidate in a competitive race.

Just as telling were the parishes that Jindal lost (or barely won) where a
GOP candidate should have won by a large margin. He was defeated in
Republican bastions of north Louisiana and the Florida parishes where he
should have triumphed easily.

Terrell, Jenkins, (and George W. Bush for that matter) carried these areas
by wide margins. A conservative candidate of similar philosophy should have
as well. Rapides Parish that chose Terrell by 2,500 votes went for Blanco by
4,000. Very pro-GOP Ouachita voted for Terrell by a margin of 7,000. Jindal
won by only 2,000. In pro-Bush Tangipahoa, it was Blanco 52%, Jindal 48%.
Terrell won it 54%-46%. In conservative Vernon, Blanco carried 57%, Jindal
43%. Terrell triumphed 54%-46%. And, in Richland Parish, Blanco was at 57%,
Jindal 43%. Terrell achieved a victory of 56%-44%. If Bobby Jindal was
White, one wonders if the same margins would have occurred?

Race is a real problem, Pinsonat told The Louisiana Weekly, "That's a strong
possibility, and if I'm Bobby Jindal, that's one of the things I attack
early on that that doesn't happen." However, the pollster added, "There is a
big difference in this race." Jindal has a record to prove to white voters
his conservatism, or he would not have the 75% that the Congressman now
enjoys. Moreover, Jindal now has the backing of a GOP Senator of great
popularity with rural white voters. "That's a huge advantage that Jindal has
this time that he did not have last time. If you run against Jindal, you
have to take on David Vitter too."

The two other potential Republican candidates, Imperial Trading CEO John
Georges and State Senator Walter Boasso have both opened reform
organizations to test the waters of a run. Both run on defined platforms,
but Pinsonat said, "What they are telling their potential supporters, Jindal
supporters, is that Jindal can't win." The pollster has no doubt they are
wrong. "When any candidate can get 75% of white voters in Louisiana, I am
impressed. I don't see any strategy that they can say they are stronger than
Jindal."




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