[StBernard] Blanco's pullout may give favorites the edge

[Westley Annis]

Blanco's pullout may give favorites the edge
Underdogs' road to B.R. gets bumpier 
Sunday, March 25, 2007
By Bill Barrow
Capital Bureau 

BATON ROUGE -- Louisiana's nonpartisan open primary system has a history of
producing unexpected matchups in the race for the Governor's Mansion -- most
famously Edwin Edwards vs. David Duke in 1991, as an example of the extreme.


Favorites often have crashed and burned while underdogs suddenly surged from
nowhere. 

But the events of last week suggest that 2007 might be the year that top
seeds on each side of the bracket meet in the finals as the two major
parties try to capture the job opened by Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco's
decision not to seek a second term. 

Louisiana voters would get a more traditional general election campaign if
the race follows the conventional wisdom of a showdown between front-runner
Bobby Jindal, a Republican congressman from Kenner, and former U.S. Sen.
John Breaux, a still-popular Democrat who now lives in Maryland but plans to
run if he can establish his eligibility. And Republican Party Chairman Roger
Villere said the exercise might serve as a major step toward ending open
primaries altogether. 

A Jindal-Breaux runoff would be a disappointing scenario for Democrat Foster
Campbell and Republican Walter Boasso, long-shot candidates who launched
their bids well before Blanco's exit. 

Republicans have been most obvious about their strategy to unite behind
Jindal, who lost to Blanco in a hotly contested runoff four years ago and
has been the presumed GOP favorite ever since. 

The state GOP has for weeks aired TV ads blasting Breaux as a Maryland
resident and Washington, D.C., lobbyist who cannot legally run for governor
in his home state. Less than 24 hours after Blanco announced her decision
not to run, the party's eight-member executive committee endorsed Jindal,
prompting Boasso to cry foul. 

Several recent polls have shown Jindal attracting better than 55 percent of
the electorate, regardless of the opponents. And he's raised more than $2
million so far. 

"Sen. Boasso is a good Republican . . . and a fine gentleman," Villere said.
But "this is about the person the state committee thinks is best qualified
to represent the party in the governor's race." 

Villere said the vote came after the executive committee received affidavits
from a majority of the 200-plus-member central committee supporting the
endorsement. "We look at the polls -- the citizens of Louisiana; we look at
the affidavits we have from the central committee; and we have a vote of the
executive committee with a no objections. It was pretty overwhelming." 

Democrats, hampered first by Blanco's delayed decision to drop out and now
by the murkiness of Breaux's eligibility, have not yet come close to that
kind of consensus. 

Agriculture Commissioner Bob Odom, arguably the most powerful figure in the
state Democratic Party, named Breaux as the party's best shot to hold
Blanco's seat. 

But for the most part, other state party officials carefully tailored their
comments, first yielding the stage to Blanco, then talking generally about
their expectations that several party figures would consider a bid. 

"This is not about John Breaux -- John Breaux is not a candidate," said
Party Chairman Chris Whittington. "I look forward to several strong
Democrats." Whittington also mentioned Campbell's campaign. 

Danny Ford, Democratic Party executive director, said the party would not be
duplicating the Republicans' early endorsement, a move he said Democratic
bylaws do not allow. An endorsement after September qualifying is a
possibility, he said. 

Breaux himself dismissed the idea of a desperation coronation. "I am not
coming back to save the Democratic Party," he said. "I want to come back to
do what I can for Louisiana." 

But one hopeful after another said either that he will not run or will run
only if Breaux doesn't. U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon of Napoleonville and
state Treasurer John Kennedy fall in the first camp of definite "no." Lt.
Gov. Mitch Landrieu and former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub, who ran in
2003, occupy the latter position of "only-if." Landrieu went so far as to
pitch the idea of him and Breaux forming an unofficial ticket, with Landrieu
seeking re-election. 

Blanco and Jindal are both examples of underestimated candidates emerging
from a jumbled open-primary field. Blanco, finishing her second term as
lieutenant governor, led early polls in 2003, but many observers dismissed
those merely as a function of name recognition. Jindal, a young bureaucrat
first introduced in the administration of Republican Gov. Mike Foster, began
the race as a mere blip in the polls. 

But after months of campaigning, Jindal led the primary, with Blanco
narrowly edging Ieyoub for a runoff spot. Blanco, still trailing in the last
field polls taken before the runoff, won 52 of Louisiana's 64 parishes. 

Eight years before, Foster won the first of his two terms almost two years
after beginning his campaign as a little-known state senator from Franklin. 

Foster, elected to the Senate as a Democrat, switched to Republican just
before qualifying and managed to stake out the most conservative slot in a
crowded field. He wound up in a runoff against another candidate who had
lagged in the polls, then-U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields, a Baton Rouge Democrat now
in the state Senate, on the liberal side of the agenda. 

Buddy Roemer emerged from the field in 1987 as the conservatives'
alternative to Republican Congressman Bob Livingston, an initial favored
challenger against Edwin Edwards, damaged by scandal and the oil bust.
Roemer led the primary and claimed the governor's chair when Edwards, second
in the first round of voting, dropped out of the runoff before it even
started. 

Four years later, Edwards resurrected his political career against initially
long odds when he landed a runoff spot against Duke, a former Ku Klux
Klansman and recently minted Republican legislator. Neither were the chosen
of their party machinery. 

That history prompts Boasso and Campbell to argue that they are legitimate
players in this year's race. 

"Certainly, with Ms. Blanco out, I would be in a position to pick up some
support from Democrats who were supporting her," Campbell said. 

The longtime populist also said his message -- repealing the state's income
tax and shifting that burden to oil and gas companies through a new
processing tax -- will resonate with voters across the political spectrum. 

"Ms. Blanco's not for that. Mr. Breaux is not for that. Mr. Jindal has said
he's not for it," Campbell said. "But I'm the only one with a plan." 

Boasso, who is the first candidate to begin airing television commercials
for his own campaign, said he would continue his effort. He said he will
continue to run as a Republican, even jokingly telling reporters that the
'R' "stands for revolution." 

But Villere and Foster, now retired in Franklin, said this year's dynamic
likely won't allow Boasso such an opportunity. Both pointed to Jindal's
early climb as the reason. 

"Look at the undecideds in the polls," Villere said, noting surveys that
show fewer than 10 percent of voters have yet to make up their minds. "Where
is Boasso going to go?" 

Asked why Boasso couldn't repeat his 1995 path, Foster said, "One
difference: I started two years before the election. I think he's going to
find it very hard to build the name recognition . . . And Bobby's support is
not just wide, it's genuine. I don't think it's just an anti-Kathleen
sentiment. People just genuinely like Bobby." 

As for Campbell's challenge, Shreveport demographer and political analyst
Elliott Stonecipher described a one-issue albatross. 

"Populist doesn't just mean Huey Long," he said. "It means, usually, single
issue, and you can't win anymore in American politics, with its
complexities, on a single issue. . . . Campbell is a lone-wolf politician.
That has been his strength, but in this case it's his weakness. But it's
like everything else Foster (Campbell) has done: He'll do it his way, and
he'll get whatever vote he gets." 

Stonecipher said he does not believe that Breaux is necessarily the first
choice of Democratic Party powers or their best candidate, a designation he
gave to Melancon. But he said he does think party leaders will gather around
one candidate -- other than Campbell. 

Villere said he can sympathize with the plights of underfinanced,
little-known candidates. A closed primary system -- separating Democrats and
Republicans, with each producing a single nominee, might address both their
concerns and the interest a party has in backing a strong candidate, Villere
said. Parties typically remain neutral in their own primaries, leaving
registered party voters to select nominees, who then get the organization's
full backing in the general election. 

Louisiana parties will have closed primaries for federal elections next
year. 

"I would like down the line on all statewide races to have closed
primaries," Villere said. "I think that really is a better scenario. Not
having that, our goal has been to have one strong candidate in each race." 

. . . . . . . 

Ed Anderson contributed to this report. 

Bill Barrow can be reached at bbarrow at timespicayune.com or (225) 342-5590