[StBernard] future of southeast LA

[Westley Annis]

Jer, you asked my opinion about the prospects for southeast LA. This is
based on the professional journals I read and lectures I attend,  as well as
the numerous conferences, seminars, and sessions (many by invitation only)
held to discuss lessons taught by Katrina, as well as the various insights
of experts about our future, including those conferences at which I have
been a keynote speaker. (I only mention this so you know that what I write
below is a compilation of many, not just mine.)
 
Southeast LA is suffering from many things that came to our attention
because of  Katrina, which some say has a once in 400 year probability of
happening again., Many of these issues are not exclusive to our region. Many
of these issues are so local that it causes some to question why our region
is re-building at all. Consider these concerns that have been raised by
experts in their fields:
 
Global warming is raising the level of the oceans, so what used to be sea
level was El. 0, may in the future mean that sea level is El. 10 as the
world's oceans rise due to the melting of the polar ice caps.
 
Global warming or the natural cycle of hurricanes has us beginning an age of
more frequent and more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of
Mexico.
 
The southeast delta is subsiding due to the enormous silt of the Mississippi
River that adds weight to the earth's geological plates causing our region
to pull downward to the Gulf and actually raise land in mid-Mississippi.
 
Saltwater intrusion, nutria feasting on coastal vegetation, man-made canals,
and frequent storms are dissolving our coastal wetlands faster than we can
rebuild them, especially since the levees which protect us from Mississippi
River flooding each spring prevent the natural overflow of water and silt
that built our lands since the beginning of time. A single storm can wipe
out decades of renourishing the wetlands.
 
The difference between this region and its disaster recovery and that of
Chicago after their great fire, San Francisco and Kobe, Japan after their
earthquakes, and other urban areas that suffered massive devastation is that
1) their economies were booming and the were very progressive societies at
the time of the disaster  and/or 2) they had elected officials who took the
reigns and put together a recovery plan or a dictator that ordered a
recovery plan, i.e. there was no consideration of public input about who,
how, where, and what would be re-built, i.e. like it or leave it and/or 3)
there was no waiting for insurance money, FEMA money, ,SBA money,
volunteers, i.e. each family started from scratch with the resources they
had and/or 4) the people moved away,i.e. if an area was prone to  disaster
(say volcanic eruption) they left to start over in another place.
 
In our region's case, the economy was stagnant, crime was up, education was
low, employment was high, those relying on public assistance for day to day
needs was high, and the political climate was, let's just say, highly
political.  The involvement of the public input about recovery and planning
started immediately, often promising buy outs of land for green space at
pre-storm values, grand plans for "free money" to quickly redevelop, and so
many conceptual planning visions that there is no such thing as "THE PLAN",
18 months after the storm, people are still waiting on money to recover
their personal losses because the free money is right around the corner and
they made some bad financial decisions that didn't give them a parachute for
the day something bad happens, and no one wants to move away unless
government compensates them one way or the other.
 
These are things that would be true across America today in many regions
because of the way our society operates and the way Americans live their
lives.
 
Now, if that is not enough to face, let's add the unique situation we have
in southeast LA.  Elsewhere on the Gulf Coast, the storm comes in to a
certain distance/elevation and quickly recedes. FEMA set the BFE in
Mississippi so quickly because all they had to do was find the high water
mark along the coast. Here we live behind walls of concrete and dirt, some
20 feet higher than the water on a calm day. The various waterways, both
natural and man-made, combined with weird geometry, require a supercomputer
to analysis all the possible factors that create the perfect storm. Which
direction is it approaching, how fast or slow is it moving, how massive is
the system in size,  what's the wind speed, what's the rainfall, etc. Only
now, will we finally be informed what the worst case storm surge levels
could be under various probabilities (100 year storm, 400 year storm, etc.)
and what probability do various neighborhoods have that their levees,
floodwalls, and pumping stations can withstand these conditions or not.
 
As I recently states at a forum of esteemed engineers and scientists-levees,
floodwalls and pumping stations don't save lives. Informing people of their
true risk saves lives, because then the people can weigh risk against their
own circumstances and decide to leave the region permanently, evacuate out
the region when a storm approaches, or bet against the odds and stay for the
storm.  Unfortunately, many people on Aug 29,2005 didn't live to know the
truth, many people didn't leave until the truth became apparent, and many
people stood and lived to tell about the truth they witnessed.
 
I will let the IPET group release their technical report on the true risk of
another Katrina-like flood at the National Hurricane Conference this week. I
have the assurance that Southeast LA Flood Authority, headed by Tom Jackson,
with Tim Doody our St. Bernard board member, will inform the public of the
IPET findings. I have previewed some of their work, and look forward to the
public receiving the  information. 
 
This IPET information coupled with the status of  what the COE  has done or
not, is doing or not, or will do or not with flood protection go hand in
hand. Be at the April 4, 7pm COE meeting in St. Bernard. If cyou can't I'm
sure Westley will post a summary of the event and you can mail your comments
within 30 days to the COE to be entered into public record.  Deborah Keller