[StBernard] Hurricane center chief warns funds are falling behind needs

Westley Annis westley at da-parish.com
Thu Apr 5 22:28:40 EDT 2007


NEW ORLEANS --

Mounting a challenge to Congress and his superiors in Washington, the new
director of the National Hurricane Center warned Wednesday that forecasters
and researchers are being bled of funding and other resources at a dangerous
time.

Bill Proenza, who took over the post early this year, said inflation has
eroded the center's $5.8 million budget, sharp cuts have damaged an
important research program and a crucial satellite is running on borrowed
time, with no replacement in sight.

Loss of that satellite could reduce the accuracy of some hurricane forecasts
by 16 percent, he said.

All of this comes as millions of new residents flock to the coast, including
many drawn by South Florida's waterfront construction boom. At the same
time, scientists say the nation is stuck in a decades-long period of
increased hurricane activity and that the six-month season that begins June
1 could be busier than usual.

''The amount of money being invested in the hurricane warning program isn't
up to the level of the threat that hurricanes present to this nation,''
Proenza said. ``This must be considered the largest natural disaster threat
to this country.''

His comments came during the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans,
attended by about 2,000 forecasters, emergency managers, vendors and others.

AUSPICIOUS DEBUT

In some ways, the conference served as Proenza's public debut, and it
indicated that his tenure at the hurricane center in West Miami-Dade County
could be provocative and somewhat confrontational, at least when it comes to
fighting for resources.

''I'm not backing down on this,'' he said. ``All of us are charged with the
highest calling -- the protection of life.''

Proenza, 62, was raised in South Florida. A government forecaster and
manager for more than 40 years, he most recently served as director of the
National Weather Service's Southern region, based in Fort Worth, Texas.

According to colleagues, Proenza has earned a reputation as a skilled
bureaucratic battler within the weather service and its parent agency, the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, especially in competing for
resources.

He rose to his new challenge in a manner far more public and bold than that
of his predecessor, Max Mayfield, who retired in January:

. Proenza said the hurricane center's budget for labor, logistical support
and similar costs has remained flat during the past few years.

''Actually, a little less, when you factor in inflation,'' he said.

Proenza declined several opportunities to share his preferred budget figure,
but he said he was surprised to learn that the hurricane center ``with all
its visibility and importance, has to scrape for crumbs.''

NOAA spokesmen said they had no comment on Proenza's remarks, but they have
noted in the past that budgets are tight throughout government and many
components of the agency must compete for funding.

. Separately, Proenza said that an unusually productive research program,
the Joint Hurricane Test Bed, suffered cuts of more than $500,000 in recent
years.

Now funded at about $1 million, the program specializes in projects that
have a good chance of quickly contributing to the accuracy of hurricane
forecasts.

In the past few years, test bed projects have improved computerized forecast
models and allowed scientists to create new, user-friendly graphics,
according to Rick Knabb, a lead hurricane forecaster who once coordinated
the program.

''Our forecasts don't have zero errors yet,'' Knabb said, ``so there always
is a need to get better.''

In 2005, The Miami Herald's Blind Eye series reported that defective buoys,
weather balloons and other equipment also were inhibiting progress in
improving forecasts, and stagnant budgets placed constraints on hurricane
scientists.

Late that year, Congress approved more than $25 million in emergency
spending for new and improved equipment -- money that is separate from the
hurricane center's budget.

. Proenza drew particular attention to the pending demise of an important
satellite launched in 1999 and designed to operate for five years.

Called QuikSCAT, the device allows scientists to measure wind speed and
direction in storms that are well out to sea.

It contributes year-round to marine forecasts but is especially important
during hurricane season, when it helps experts determine when a tropical
system has formed and how fierce it might be.

''Obviously, QuikSCAT is well beyond its life span, and we're very
concerned,'' Proenza said. ``And there's nothing in the works to replace
it.''

Loss of that satellite could damage the accuracy of two-day hurricane
forecasts by 10 percent and three-day forecasts by 16 percent, he said.

A new, modernized version would cost about $375 million, he said, and would
take at least four years to build and launch.

''But we don't have the money, so we're probably looking at longer than
that,'' Proenza said.

TARGET OF CRITICISM

In January, a panel of the National Academy of Sciences criticized NOAA and
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for allowing QuikSCAT and
other weather satellites to deteriorate, and a report in The Miami Herald
closely examined the issue.

Proenza and others noted that the risks have never been greater, largely
because more people settle in hurricane-vulnerable regions every year.
Fifty-three percent of all Americans now live within 50 miles of the coast,
Proenza said.

''It's a problem,'' said David Paulison, director of the Federal Emergency
Management Agency. ``We continue to build in harm's way.''

A South Florida native who still has a house in Davie, Paulison said he
recently visited downtown Miami and was shocked.

''I couldn't believe the condos going up there,'' he said during a
round-table discussion. 'You go, `Dang, how are you going to evacuate all of
these people if something happens?' ''






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