[StBernard] Boasso Polls

[Westley Annis]

16 July 2007 

To: Interested Parties 

Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt 

Re: Summary of Louisiana Statewide Polling Results 

Walter Boasso's four week, $1.2 million dollar media buy has changed the
dynamics of the Louisiana governor's race. Now that Boasso has entered the
scene with a major media buy, Jindal's support is down 10 points, Boasso has
moved up 15 points and more voters are undecided, looking closely at
alternatives to Jindal. This movement shows how hard it will be for Jindal
to win without a run-off as Boasso continues to consolidate the Democratic
base. 

. 
Boasso has more than tripled his current vote since May, moving from 6% to
21% with just four weeks of a moderate television buy. Currently Jindal
leads with 52%, followed by Boasso (21%), Campbell (6%) and Georges (1%).
One-in-five voters are still undecided (21%). 

. 
Not only has Boasso moved up 15 points, the undecided vote has increased by
7 points, from 14% to 21%. The Boasso television has softened Jindal and
Campbell's support and moved some of their votes to the undecided column.
(Campbell's support is down to 6%, from 9% in May). 

. 
Jindal's vote is softer than insiders have acknowledged. Jindal's vote is
down 10 points since May, without any negative communications. Nearly
one-third (30%) of his supporters say there is "still a good chance they
will change their mind," including 57% of his independent supporters and
nearly 50% of his self-identified Democratic supporters. Taking out the
voters who say they might change their mind puts Jindal's hard support at
just 36%. 

. 
Given Jindal's near-universal name identification, it is hard to imagine
many of the undecided voters moving his way. Jindal functions almost like an
incumbent in this race, and faces an incumbent's difficulties in trying to
pick up undecided voters. This is especially important with a run-off
looking more and more likely. 

. 
Nearly two-thirds (64%) say they have seen Boasso's television
advertisements. A majority of voters (56%) say they will "seriously
consider" Boasso or "definitely vote for him" once they learn more about
him. Just 28% say they will not consider voting for Boasso in this election 

. 
Even more encouraging, Boasso's televisions ads have had a substantive
message impact with voters. Walter Boasso leads Bobby Jindal by a 37% to 33%
margin when voters are asked who would do a better job "fighting for the
little guy." By a 34% to 27% margin, Boasso leads Jindal on who "will take
on the insurance industry." These are the central message components of
Boasso's ads. 

. 
Boasso's television campaign has also moved the generic ballot. Prior to
Boasso's television campaign, there was no perceived Democratic competition
to Jindal, and the generic ballot favored Republicans by a 40% to 33%
margin. After four weeks of television voters see there is a viable
Democratic candidate and the generic ballot measure has righted itself.
Democrats now lead the generic ballot 36% to 33%, which is more in line with
previous post-Katrina polling.