[StBernard] POLL results

[Westley Annis]

BOASSO POLL FINDS SUPPORT ON RISE
Gubernatorial election is Oct. 20
Byline: Michelle Millhollon
The Advocate


A public opinion poll commissioned by gubernatorial candidate Walter Boasso indicates the state senator's television ads are resonating with voters.

Of the 609 likely voters polled July 8-12 by Anzalone-Liszt Research, 21 percent supported Boasso compared with the 6 percent who supported him in a May sampling.

Boasso, a Democrat from Arabi, recently splashed out $1.3 million for television ads that aired statewide. The ads depict a two-man race between Boasso and U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal, R-Kenner, even though the candidate field is actually more crowded than that.

The poll shows a 10-percentage-point drop in support for Jindal from May to July, although he still is leading, with more than 50 percent of voters supporting him in the July survey. To win the primary outright, a candidate needs 50 percent of the votes plus one.

The election is Oct. 20, about three months away. A runoff election would be Nov. 17.

"The poll says to me that we're getting our name out there and people know that there's going to be a governor's race," Boasso said in a telephone interview Wednesday from the campaign trail.

Jindal's campaign press secretary, Melissa Sellers, said she expects to see a number of different polls and interesting theories between now and September, when candidates officially sign up to run.

"I'm sure (Boasso's) consultants will do all they can to make sure he keeps pouring his millions into their campaign," Sellers said.

Loyola University political science Professor Ed Renwick said the poll shows two things: Boasso's television ads are having a positive impact and Jindal's support is strong enough to possibly preclude a runoff.

"It's hard to get in a position where you can win in the primary," Renwick said.

Shreveport political analyst Elliott Stonecipher said the poll shows how many percentage points $1.3 million buys.

He questions whether Boasso will be able to sustain the momentum.

"The textbook has long since taught us all that aside from how overstated the gain may be the more important question is will he keep the gain,"

Stonecipher said.

Boasso hired Anzalone-Liszt - a polling firm with offices in Washington, D.C., and Montgomery, Ala. - to survey voters on the four leading candidates in the race to replace Gov. Kathleen Blanco.

Blanco, a Democrat, is not seeking a second term this fall. The candidates vying to succeed her include Jindal, New Orleans-area businessman John Georges, a Republican, and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell of Bossier Parish.

The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent.

Of the voters polled, 23 percent were black and 73 percent were white.

Politically, 48 percent of the voters were Democrats and 35 percent were Republicans.

The poll included questions to gauge voters' opinions on the direction the state is moving and their impressions of President George W. Bush.

Voters also were asked, "If the October election for governor were held today and the candidates were - Walter Boasso, a Democrat, Foster Campbell, a Democrat, Bobby Jindal, a Republican, and John Georges, a Republican, for whom would you vote?"

The response, which combines those who are definitely for the candidate with those leaning that way: Boasso, 21 percent; Campbell, 6 percent; Jindal, 52 percent; and Georges, 1 percent; undecided, 21 percent.

The results of a May poll commissioned by Boasso were: Boasso, 6 percent; Campbell, 9 percent; Jindal, 62 percent; Georges, 1 percent; undecided, 14 percent.

Jindal is considered by many political analysts to be the front-runner in the race.

He lost the runoff election to Blanco in 2003.