[StBernard] Tropical Outlook for G.O.M.

[Westley Annis]

This came from weather underground's website.

Gulf of Mexico storm possible this week
The four reliable computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical
cyclones have been very busy the past few runs cooking up some nasty storms
in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Neither the
timing nor the location of these hypothetical storms has been consistent.
However, the models are insistent enough that something might happen, that I
believe there is about a 40% chance we'll see a tropical storm in the Gulf
of Mexico by week's end. A few possibilities, from this morning's model
runs:

NOGAPS: A tropical storm forms in the Western Caribbean Tuesday, and moves
north, hitting South Florida Friday.

UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS: A tropical storm forms in the central Gulf of Mexico
Thursday and moves west, hitting Texas on Saturday.

The seed for formation of a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean would be
one of the tropical waves from Africa that are parading across the Atlantic.
A Gulf of Mexico storm could get spawned from a tropical wave, or from an
old frontal zone stretching from the Carolinas southwards along the U.S.
East Coast then across northern Florida.

Tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic
A tropical wave near 9N, 39W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and
the coast of Africa, is moving west at 10-15 mph. This wave has shown an
increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day, and some slow
development is possible over the next 2-3 days. Wind shear has increased
some over the wave, to 10-20 knots, and is expected to remain below 20 knots
over the next 2-3 days.

I'll have an update Monday morning by 10am EDT.
Jeff Masters

Link:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=793&tstam
p=200709