[StBernard] Tropical outlook for G.O.M.

Westley Annis Westley at da-parish.com
Wed Sep 19 01:01:59 EDT 2007


Here's a link to the models page:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200793_model.html#a_topad

Jim





-----------------------------------------------------
>From Wx underground:

an area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of
Florida, in
association with a tropical wave interacting with a trough of low
pressure.
This disturbance has been labeled "93L"
by NHC
this afternoon. Animations of long-range radar out of Melbourne,
Florida

um=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=MLB&type=N0Z&showstorms=0&l

at=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240

&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9
999&avg_off=9999> and satellite loops
show that
thunderstorm activity off the Florida coast is increasing, but
remains
disorganized. Wind shear

over the disturbance has fallen from 30 knots to 20 knots today, and
is
expected to fall below 10 knots by Thursday. The disturbance is
moving
westward, and will bring heavy rain to Florida and the Bahamas today
through
Thursday.

The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone
genesis
all predict that once this area of disturbed weather crosses Florida
and
emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, wind shear will
drop
enough to allow a tropical depression to form. The path such a storm
might
take is highly uncertain, and the models have diverged significantly
since
yesterday's runs. A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over
the
eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in
place for at
least ten days. This is the type of steering pattern we experienced
during
the Hurricane Season of 2005, and favors westward-moving storms.
This ridge
will act to steer any developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico towards
the
west, to the Texas coast, or even west-southwest, to the
northeastern
mainland Mexico. However, this steering pattern will be complicated
by the
presence of an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of
Mexico. This
upper-level low is currently forming over northern Florida, and is
expected
to drift southwestward or westward over the Gulf later this week,
and
gradually weaken. Depending on the strength and movement of this
low, a
storm that forms in the eastern Gulf could be steered anywhere from
the
Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico. One model, the NOGAPS,
predicts
that the storm will move west-southwest into the Bay of Campeche
(southwestern Gulf of Mexico), and stall out for many days. The
UKMET, GFS,
and ECMFW models foresee that the storm will make landfall in Texas
or
Louisiana Sunday or Monday. The intensity such a storm may reach is
also
highly uncertain. The NOGAPS model predicts 93L will eventually
dissipate
over the southwestern Gulf, while the SHIPS intensity model brings
93L to
Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. All residents along the
Gulf of
Mexico coast need to consider what actions they might need to take
if a
hurricane develops in the Gulf this weekend. The highest danger
region is
from New Orleans westward to Brownsville, Texas. A hurricane hunter
airplane
is on call for Thursday afternoon.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=795&tstam
p=200709





More information about the StBernard mailing list