[StBernard] Gubernatorial Poll

[Westley Annis]

	Sad, I really hoped Walter had a chance.  I hate to see another
"Bushbacker" in office.

Simms

	> ----------------------------------------------------- 
	> Jer, 
	> 
	> I know how you feel about the race, but I still have hopes for
Walter. 
	> Still, my background in polling and running campaigns says these
numbers are 
	> not looking good for Walter. In fact, the headline should read
just the 
	> opposite...these numbers tell me Jindal is most likely to win this
in the 
	> primary. 
	> 
	> My conclusion are based on the fact that the 29% undecided/won't
say really 
	> aren't "all" undecided - trust me, they know how they will most
likely vote. 
	> Historically, when a candidate has over 45% of the sample with at
least a 
	> 25% lead over the nearest opponent, he/she usually gets a third or
more of 
	> the undecided polled when undecided is more than 20%. Hope I
didn't lose 
	> use with all those numbe rs and percentages. 
	> 
	> To make it simple and add the numbers, figure on Jindal getting
another 7 to 
	> 9 voters of the 29 per 100 Undecideds/Won't Says, then factor in
that some 
	> of them (a small percentage of the 20 per hundred) will not even
show up on 
	> election day. So, Jindal would have at a minimum 53 of 97 (per 100
people 
	> polled factoring 3 percent polled who won't go vote). I guess this
is 
	> numeric explanation to say it's nuts to think that Jindal is not
going to 
	> get a decent chuck of the undecides/won't says. Also historically,
a good 
	> percentage of undecided goes with who they "perceive" is going to
win the 
	> election - so they can tell everyone they know that they voted for
the 
	> winner...sounds lame, but it's a voting behavior fact - just ask
any 
	> credible pollster. 
	> 
	> In fact, John Grimm of Multi-Quest Int'l in Metairie is the only
pollster I 
	> know w ho wil l often ask the question in his
polling..."regardless of who you 
	> like or who you will likely vote for, who do you think is most
likely going 
	> to win the election?" Would you believe the answer (and percentage
numbers) 
	> to that question is usually the closest to the actual election day
vote? 
	> It's more accurate than outright asking "who are likely going to
vote for." 
	> 
	> After having said all this, it puts Jindal getting 54-56% of the
actual turn 
	> out on election day. But it gets even worse - my sources tell me
Georges 
	> has pulled slightly ahead of Walter in some other polls and I
trust my 
	> sources to be accurate. 
	> 
	> I don't know what more Walter can do at this point. I think he
needs the 
	> Democratic Party to finally get behind him 100% as the party's
candidate, 
	> then spend the bucks and get visible. Otherwise, this election is
going to 
	> end on October 20th. 
	> < BR>> ; John