[StBernard] Did Barack "Spread the Wealth" Obama Just Blow theElection?

[Westley Annis]

James Pethokoukis is absolutely correct.  Already the political anaylist,
even the liberal ones, are saying that Obama might have just snatched defeat
from the jaws of victory.  You know the McCain campaign is going to use this
in heavy run commercials till election day.  If I were McCain, I'd do a
series of the "man on the street" commericals with someone from each of the
battleground states.  The main theme of the commerical would be asking
someone to explain what they think "spread the wealth" means.

Why would this be so effective?  Because hearing something come from the
mouth of another average, typical person (which you perceive yourself to be)
is different from hearing it from a candidate.  Even though at the end of
the tv spot you know it's coming from McCain, that doesn't matter.  That
average citizen you just listened to is someone you can relate to and you
automatically give them credibility.  Whether conscioulsy or unconsciously,
it will make you think about what they said.

Here's how I would write the 30 second spot.  It opens with the video clip
showing Obama telling Joe the Plumber about his "spreading the wealth."
Then cut to the man/woman on the street (in each respective battleground
state) saying "What do I think Spread the Wealth mean?"  The person goes on
to say something like "It means I work my butt off only to have more of what
I make given to someone else who doesn't want to do the same."  Then there's
a cut back to Obama saying again "spread the wealth."  Then the last seconds
of the tv spot has the man on the street saying "I think that guy in Ohio is
right about Obama, we have to play it safe and go with McCain."

Now, do you know what are the "convincing" words stated by the Man on the
Street?  The words that have the most impact?  Believe it or not, it's the
words "play it safe."  Most would say the obvious "spread the wealth."  But
that's just the attention grabber.  At some point in every political
commerical, or at least the ones I have written, there has be a word or few
words that convince you, or at least try to sway you.  There are several
words or phrases in the english language that historically appeal to
people's nature - such as "play it safe."  As much as we would like to think
we're risk takers at times, most people relate to the security of "playing
it safe" - especially when the other choice or option is perceived to be
risky.

In this case, 30 seconds is all it would take to swing the election back to
McCain because in one quick swoop Obama is seen as a risk (and by his own
video taped words - seeing is believing) and then you have the average
citizen (you) speaking common sense and telling you it looks like we need to
play it safe this time around.

Okay, but Obama is going to strike back with some catchy ad, right?  Yes -
and no!  Yes, he will run an ad knocking (or even trashing) McCain, but "no"
it's not going to work this time.  Why not?  Because of human nature.  You
see, the 30 second spot McCain ran doesn't claim that McCain is the greatest
thing since slice bread nor the perfect alernative.  All it says is, yeah he
might not be the greatest choice, but we'll be playing it safe with McCain.
Thus, all the retaliating ads in the world by Obama cannot overcome what has
"already" lodged into our heads after watching the McCain ads.  It's sort of
like your mind subconsciously says "okay Obama, we get what you're saying
about McCain, but I've already concluded that McCain is still going to be a
safer bet than you."

Folks, it's tough to overcome what your subconscious mind has already
concluded as being definite.  Then, in the last 7 days to election, the
polls start showing McCain is catching up to Obama and might even be winning
in the key battleground states.  Then the media, even the networks pulling
for Obama, start jumping on the bandwagon - hey, they want headlines and an
audience if even they are for Obama.  Then the "self-fulfilling prophecies"
begin - the talk on the streets, in the barber shops, at the workplace, that
"it looks like McCain is going to catch Obama and win this thing."  At that
point it's over for Obama - and he and his campaign staff would know it.

Yes, John McCain is going to be able to send Barack Obama a big Thank You
note after the election for one of the biggest screw-ups in presidential
campaign history.  

"Words, just words."  Obama says they mean a lot...and boy, is he right -
for once!

John Scurich