[StBernard] More a realist than a radical

[Westley Annis]

More a realist than a radical

Geoff Elliott, Washington correspondent | November 08, 2008 

The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other
nation but rather in her ability to repair her faults. 
- Alexis de Tocqueville, French 19th-century political writer

BARACK Obama is the US's repairer-in-chief. His overwhelming victory this
week in the US presidential election is many things, but beyond all it is a
nation's attempt to right the old republic and set it on a new course. We
know this because well over two-thirds of the country going into this
election thought the US was headed the wrong way. The problem for Obama is
that while 63 million Americans voted for him to make his changes, another
56 million voted for John McCain to do the job. 

The election can fairly be described as a landslide in the electoral college
to Obama since he locked up about 28 states to McCain's 22 and winning
north, southeast and west. He won the popular vote by a margin of more than
6 per cent but, still, 56 million people who voted against him mean there's
a lot of persuading to do. 

"To those Americans whose support I have yet to earn," Obama said at his
victory speech in Chicago, "I may not have won your vote tonight, but I hear
your voices. I need your help. And I will be your president, too." 

The first 48 hours after Obama's victory have been instructive, if
heartening, particularly given the fears that with Obama lurked a leftist
opportunist. The characterisation belied everything that Obama preached in
the general election campaign and his first appointment to the White House,
Rahm Emanuel, 48, as chief of staff, is an indication of where Obama is
headed. 

Emanuel, a devout Jew, is a prickly character, intensely competitive but
arguably the most disciplined Democrat in Washington after Obama. The
anecdotes on Emanuel are vibrant: how he once sent a rotting fish to a
pollster who upset him; how he will tear into congressional candidates if
they have not toed the line; how, as a young adviser in Bill Clinton's
administration, the attribution "Rahm says" in any statement struck fear
into staff members' hearts. 

For the 20-something bright young Obama-ites in Washington who were looking
to send in their CVs for a chance in the White House, there are some who are
having second thoughts. "I won't work for him (Rahm)," says one who knows
him well and was considering applying for a White House role. "He can be
exceptionally hard on people. He's notoriously profane and single-minded.
You know people love Rahm because he is effective, not because he's
likable." 

In Emanuel, Obama has gone for the classic good cop-bad cop routine and
signalled his White House is going to be a tight, if not tough, ship. 

"I wake up some mornings hating me, too," Emanuel once famously said of
himself. 

The chief of staff is a pivotal role in the White House - the highest
ranking executive - who is a gatekeeper for the president and one of his
closest advisers. But Emanuel, who is a member of the House of
Representatives, can be expected to play a key role in Obama's negotiations
with his own party in Congress. 

He and house Speaker Nancy Pelosi are close, each owning an allegiance to
each other. Pelosi promoted Emanuel through the ranks of the Democratic
leadership in Congress but it was Emanuel's campaign to recruit
non-traditional Democrats to congressional races that helped the party
secure its majorities in 2006. In other words, Pelosi would not be house
Speaker if not for Emanuel's strategy, bringing on board people such as
former National Football League quarterback and North Carolina
representative Heath Shuler, who is staunch on anti-abortion rights and will
buck his party on the issue if need be. Across the House of Representatives
and the Senate, there are more and more representatives of what some are
calling the religious Left, characterised also by fiscal conservatism and
home-town values. 

That Democrats in the house owe their majority to Emanuel (along with New
York senator Chuck Schumer, who worked on recruiting moderates for Senate
races) was a big factor in Obama's decision to appoint him to the White
House, along with the fact that two are friends and both from Chicago. 

Predictably, the Republican leadership blasted the appointment. House
minority leader John Boehner said in a statement: "This is an ironic choice
for a president-elect who has promised to change Washington, make politics
more civil and govern from the centre." And Republican National Committee
spokesman Alex Conant issued a statement calling Emanuel "a partisan
insider" and referring to him by his nickname, "Rahmbo". 

"Barack Obama's first decision as president-elect undermines his promise to
'heal the divides'," he said and the party started a new series called
"Obama's Broken Promise", starting with the naming of "Hyperpartisan"
Emanuel. 

The appointment has been praised by other Republicans, however, including
John McCain's closest friend and adviser on the campaign trail, Lindsey
Graham. "Rahm knows Capitol Hill and has great political skills," Graham
says. "He can be a tough partisan but also understands the need to work
together. He is well-suited for the position of White House chief of staff.
Rahm understands the challenges facing our nation and will, consistent with
the agenda set by president-elect Obama, work to find common ground where it
exists." 

What Graham sees in Emanuel and where some of his Republican colleagues have
missed the point is Obama's first priority is to try to keep the Democratic
Party in line in Congress. The pent-up demand for a new, more progressive
legislative agenda following eight years of the Bush administration is
palpable. Emanuel, campaign aides say, is to help keep those forces in
check. It is this moderate, centrist style of governing that Obama wants to
establish in the first term to win the support of those who did not vote for
him on Tuesday. 

Pelosi and Senate majority leader Harry Reid were quick to reinforce the
language this week, Pelosi saying it was imperative a "new president must
govern from the middle". Still, to be fair to Pelosi, for a congresswoman
from one of the most liberal districts in San Francisco she has remained
relatively centrist in her own agenda in the first two years as Speaker, the
Congress charting a relatively benign course given the desires of some more
radical Democrats wanting to, for example, launch impeachment proceedings
against President George W. Bush. That the Democrats again increased
majorities in the house and Senate this week underlines the softly-softly
approach has worked. 

Pelosi said of the agenda ahead that "growing the economy, expanding health
care, ending dependence on foreign oil and ending the war in Iraq" would be
the toppriorities. 

Republican National Committee chairman Mike Duncan sounded less than
convinced Democrats would stay centrist: "The last two times Democrats
controlled the house, Senate and the presidency, they choked on the bone of
responsibility. They lurched far to the Left and introduced the country to
president Ronald Reagan and speaker Newt Gingrich." 

But Democrats, and Obama, remain acutely aware of Republicans' 1994 takeover
of the Congress during the Clinton years, which was driven in part by
Clinton's overreach trying to reform health care and introduce universal
coverage. Health care remains the holy grail for Democrats, where legitimate
arguments on both sides of the debate look intractable: from progressives
who want a system to help more than 47 million uninsured Americans and
others who simply go bankrupt trying to pay medical bills, to the drug
companies whose profits and innovation are threatened if the hand of
government tries to regulate the price. 

According to sources familiar with a likely legislative agenda in the next
six months, health care will first be tackled in smaller bites. A universal
coverage system for children was vetoed twice by Bush and that legislation
is likely to be one of the first pieces revived and passed in an Obama
administration. Stem cell research was also vetoed by Bush and that too is
expected to be quickly revived and passed. 

Of course the economy is the driving issue. Pelosi wants to enact a second
stimulus package of up to $US100 billion in this lame duck session of
Congress, followed by what is expected to be an even bigger package in an
Obama administration, along with his campaign promise of tax cuts for the
middle class. To help offset this, Democrats will let the Bush
administration's controversial tax cuts expire, raising more than $US200
billion in revenue. 

Obama also can be expected to move on the Iraq war, though his position on a
16-month withdrawal of combat forces has been defused as an issue since the
Bush administration has been negotiating timelines with the Iraqi
Government. 

There has been something of a charmed rise in the Obama candidacy and that
was evident even in the way the Senate races turned out. While some of the
results are undecided, it looks certain that Democrats will fall just short
of a 60-seat majority in the 100-member Senate chamber. The threshold is
critical in Washington since with 60 seats a party can ram through
legislation. Anything less than 60 seats and bills can be blocked through
parliamentary debate tactics or filibustering. 

It appears instead that Democrats will hold a 57 to 58 majority, just short.
This is a blessing in disguise for Obama, since it keeps the forces in the
Left of the Democratic Party at bay. It also means that Obama did not usher
in a grand realignment of the US electorate this week. Instead, the results
reinforced the shift that started in 2006. Indeed, the US remains a
Centre-Right country and it is Democrats who have been shifting to meet this
political reality. 

While McCain campaigned on a platform that Obama was too radical or risky,
it may surprise Australian readers to know that Obama supported a Supreme
Court decision that overturned a ban on handguns in crime-ridden Washington,
DC, and that he backed the Bush administration's controversial wiretapping
programming. 

With the help of Emanuel - who championed welfare reform in the Clinton
administration - Obama's win could turn out to be just the beginning of his
party's grip on power in Washington. If Obama governs as his actions so far
suggest, 2010 - the mid-term congressional elections - will likely prove to
be another banner year for Democrats, cementing what some whisper could
become the permanent Democratic majority. 

Just four years ago Republicans were confidently talking the same, but that
party's spectacular overreach on what it could achieve brought its own
spectacular undoing. Obama, a keen student of history, is not apt to repeat
the same mistakes.