[StBernard] The Friday Line: Ten Republicans To Watch

[Westley Annis]

The Friday Line: Ten Republicans To Watch
The great thing about elections is that as soon as the last one ends, the
next one begins.

 Everywhere the Fix goes these days -- and by everywhere we mean the office,
Starbucks and the gym to play basketball -- people want to know: Who's next?

Who are the faces that will emerge to rebuild the Republican party following
its decimation at the ballot box in 2006 and 2008? (The ugly totals: 54
seats lost in House, 13 seats -- at least -- in the Senate and a little
thing called the White House.)

So, to slake the thirst of Fixistas across the country (heck, around the
world) we are going to start ranking the 10 Republicans to keep an eye on
over the coming months and years.

To be clear, this is not -- and should not be taken as -- a list of
potential contenders to take on Barack Obama in 2012. Some of the people on
this list will certainly be in the Republican field in four years time but
others almost certainly won't. 

The most notable omission is that of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. While we
expect the former vice presidential nominee will be on this Line in the
coming months, she doesn't make it this time around because it is not yet
clear how she will find a way to remain in the national dialogue from her
far-away outpost in the Last Frontier. Palin is also VERY lightly regarded
by many of the opinion leaders and establishment types within the GOP,
making it tougher for her to command a leading role.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is also not on the Line -- not because we
don't think he is considering a 2012 bid (he is) but because as of today
it's not clear what his niche is within the party. His fresh-faced appeal
and shtick (and don't get us wrong, we love shtick) may not wear so well a
second time around.

The common thread for membership on this list, which was compiled based on a
series of conversations with Republican operatives and the Fix's own
analysis, is that each of these individuals will have a role to play in the
conversation about where the party heads between now and 2010.

Agree or disagree with our picks? Feel free to offer suggestions of your own
in the comments section below.

To the Line!

10. Steve Poizner: Poizner, the Insurance Commissioner of California, has an
early head-start on being the Republican nominee for governor in 2010. And,
if Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) decides not to run, Poizner's ability to
self-fund a campaign coupled with his relatively short time in elected
office and his outsider message could make him viable in the general
election. As California goes, so goes the country.

9. Haley Barbour: There are those who mention Barbour's name for the 2012
GOP nomination. We are decidedly skeptical about that -- will the country be
ready for a man who had a hand in inventing modern-day lobbying in
Washington? -- but Barbour is clearly someone to watch. Remember that before
he became governor of Mississippi in 2003, Barbour was one of the leading
political operatives in the country and has tentacles (and acolytes) all
over the country. That makes him a force to be reckoned with.

8. Jon Huntsman Jr.: As The Fix was waiting to meet with Huntsman on
Thursday, CNN's Wolf Blitzer was touting him as a rising star in Republican
politics. Nice convergence. Huntsman won re-election earlier this month with
78 percent (granted it was in ruby red Utah) and has the looks and
re&eaccute;sum&eaccute; -- fluent in Chinese, progressive on the environment
-- that could make him appealing for a party looking desperately for a
different profile. Huntsman is a Mormon, however, and, as Mitt Romney
demonstrated earlier this year, that could be a major problem if he decides
to run for president.


7. Eric Cantor: The Virginia Republican's unfettered rise through the ranks
of House leadership continued earlier this week when he was elected Minority
Whip -- the second ranking position within the GOP. Cantor was among those
vetted in John McCain's vice presidential search and his personal background
-- a Jewish Republican -- will be intriguing for many within the party
looking for something new. Cantor's problem: Is the House too small a perch
from which to become a national figure?

6. Mark Sanford: South Carolina's Sanford is the newly elected chair of the
Republican Governors Association, a useful job through which to raise one's
national profile. Since McCain's loss earlier this month, Sanford has been a
leading voice for the party to return to the principles of former President
Ronald Reagan; "Some on the left will say our electoral losses are a
repudiation of our principles of lower taxes, smaller government and
individual liberty," wrote Sanford in an op-ed piece for CNN.com. "But
Tuesday was not in fact a rejection of those principles -- it was a
rejection of Republicans' failure to live up to those principles." Sanford's
reform credentials are impeccable but he has, throughout his career, rubbed
the party establishment wrong, which could hurt him as he seeks a broader
role.

5. Bob McDonnell: McDonnell, Virginia's attorney general, will be the
Republican standard-bearer in the Commonwealth's gubernatorial race in 2009.
Off-year statewide elections are always looked to by the two parties as
litmus tests for how each side is doing, and the fact that this campaign
will take place in the purple state of Virginia makes McDonnell all the more
important. If he wins, it will be seen as a sign that the Republican party
is alive and well and living in Virginia. If he loses, he'll join the Jerry
Kilgore Hall of Fame.

4. Mitch Daniels: Even as Obama was pulling off a stunning win in the
Hoosier State at the presidential level, Daniels was cruising to reelection
by 18 points. At the end of the campaign, Daniels pledged in a television ad
that he would never run for another office but even if he stays true to his
word, his experience in 2008 makes him a valuable commodity for Republicans.
While Daniels's ties to George W. Bush won't help him -- he served as the
director of the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2003 -- his
electoral success in a critical Midwest battleground means Daniels has a
seat at the table.

3. Mitt Romney: Discount the former Massachusetts governor and presidential
candidate at your own peril. Romney has three big things going for him: he
is, by almost anyone's account, an expert on the American economy; he is
incredibly ambitious and will work harder than almost anyone to make sure
his voice is heard; and he has immense personal wealth and a willingness to
spend it. Do his flip-flops on social issues (and his Mormonism) still make
social conservatives queasy? You bet. But Romney is in the mix and will aim
to stay there.


2. John Thune: The South Dakota Senator is incredibly well positioned to
emerge as the telegenic voice of the Obama opposition. Thune is part of a
group of young and aggressive Republican senators who will look to take the
fight to Obama and Senate Democrats over the next two years. It doesn't hurt
Thune that he is already a revered figure among conservatives after ousting
former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004. Thune's problem is that
conventional wisdom within the party already seems to be settling on the
idea that the GOP governors need to lead Republicans out of the wilderness
in which they currently find themselves.

1. Bobby Jindal: There is NO hotter commodity in the Republican party these
days than Jindal. Jindal is the rare candidate who both reformers and
establishment types find appealing, and as a 37-year-old Indian American he
is -- literally and figuratively -- the sort of new face the party is pining
for. While Jindal is hot right now, it's important to remember that he is
the governor of a state with a complex political scene -- meaning there will
be myriad opportunities for Jindal to falter over the next few months and
years.

By Chris Cillizza |  November 21, 2008; 6:00 AM ET  | Category:  The Line