[StBernard] New Louisiana Population Projections Series

[Westley Annis]

Louisiana Population Projections

 

The Louisiana Parish Population Projections Series, 2010-2030 were developed
for the State of Louisiana, Office of Electronic Services,  Division of
Administration by Louisiana State University, Department of Sociology. These
are projections of the population by age (five year categories through age
85), race (white, African American/black, and other), and sex for Louisiana
Parishes between 2010-2030.  The race category 'other' includes Asian or
Pacific Islanders and North American Indian or Eskimo.

Louisiana parishes have experienced diverse trends in population change,
some of which have

been deeply influenced by the storms of 2005. From 2005 to 2010, the top
five projected

growth parishes are located in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans metropolitan
areas. These

parishes include: Ascension, Livingston, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, and St.
John the Baptist.

Ascension, Livingston, St. Tammany, and Tangipahoa experienced high rates of
growth from

2000-2005 and experienced an accelerated growth pattern from population
shifts generated by

the storms of 2005. Between 2010 and 2020, the top five projected fastest
growing parishes

include: Livingston, St. Tammany, Ascension, St. John the Baptist, and
Plaquemines. Regionally,

these trends suggest that South Louisiana will be the fastest growing region
of the state.

 

For these projections, the 2005 estimated population for each parish is
projected forward in five-year intervals through 2030. The effects of
hurricanes Katrina and Rita are taken into account.

The projections are designed to present three population scenarios. Rates of
birth and death are based on vital statistics data from 2000-2004 and are
held constant between 2010 and 2030 across all three scenarios; however,
each scenario depicts a different assumption regarding migration patterns by
age, race, and sex.  These scenarios include:

1)  Middle Series [2000-2005 Net Migration Scenario]: In this scenario, the
observed rate of migration between 2000-2005 is assumed to remain constant
through 2030.
2)  Low Migration Series [Half (.5) 2000-2005 Net Migration Scenario]: In
this scenario, the rate of migration through 2030 is assumed to be one-half
(.5) of the 2000-2005 migration rate.
3)  High Migration Series [One and One-Half (1.5) 2000-2005 Net Migration
Scenario]: In this scenario, the rate of migration through 2030 is assumed
to be one and one-half (1.5) times that of the 2000-2005 migration rate.

Based on long term trends derived from comparisons of the 1990 and 2000 U.S.
Census, state-level population projections produced by the U.S. Census
Bureau, and recent revisions to the 2007 Population Estimates for the New
Orleans area, the following population projections scenarios are
recommended:

1) Orleans, Jefferson, and St. Bernard Parishes: Use the "High Series" for
2010-2020 and the "Medium Series" for 2025-2030. 
2) All Other Parishes: Use the "Middle Series" for 2010-2030.
3) Statewide: Use the "High Series" for 2010-2020 and the "Medium Series"
for 2025 and 2030.

With the exception of Orleans, Jefferson, and St. Bernard Parishes, the
"Low" and "High" series provide the user with the necessary information to
evaluate what population changes may occur given a marked increase or
decrease in net migration.  Users should carefully assess past and current
population trends for a given parish before using the "High" or "Low" series
as a likely population scenario for planning purposes.  We recommend the
"High Series" in certain time periods for Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard,
and the State of Louisiana to account for a revision to the 2007 Population
Estimates that occurred after the development of these projections.  For a
more in-depth description of the Louisiana population trends observed and a
technical description of the methodology used to generate the projections,
read the full technical report.  State-level and parish-level population
projections are provided at:

See:  http://www.louisiana.gov/Explore/Population_Projections/