[StBernard] TS ANA Discussion 17

[Westley Annis]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160904
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
 
AN ASCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTED THAT ANA WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM
AT THAT TIME...BUT IT CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH VERY
LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...AND MAY HAVE WEAKENED.  FOR NOW
HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  THE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH WHICH ANA IS MOVING IS VERY DRY...AND THE SYSTEM HAS HAD
DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION.  THERE IS STILL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION...AND SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.  LATER ON...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LAND.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ANA
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 14.6N  53.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N  56.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 15.9N  60.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 16.8N  64.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.6N  68.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N  76.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N  85.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN