[StBernard] Poll: Lowest Congressional Approval in Two Decades

[Westley Annis]

Poll: Lowest Congressional Approval in Two Decades
By Nikki Schwab 
Posted September 2, 2009
While the 2010 midterms are still 14 months away, pollsters seem to agree
that it's not a question of if things will be bad for the Democrats but how
bad things will be for the Democrats. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com
recently suggested a 20- to 50-seat loss in the House. Republican pollsters
have tried to tamp down excitement but are still predicting a loss of about
26 seats for the Democrats. A new poll from the Pew Research Center shows
just how unpopular Congress has become. In the poll, 37 percent of Americans
expressed a favorable view of the legislative branch, one of the lowest
approval ratings given to Congress in two decades. Pew points out that
voters may take their frustrations out on the majority party. Democrats had
held a double-digit advantage in respondents' perceptions of how they
managed the federal government and reduced the budget deficit, but now
Democrats and Republicans are scoring about even. And the two parties are
running about evenly in terms of whether respondents would vote for a
Democrat or a Republican candidate today.

Americans are extremely displeased with Congress, and there are already some
signs that this could take a toll on the Democrats in the 2010 midterm
elections. Currently, 37% express a favorable opinion of Congress, while 52%
hold an unfavorable view. Positive opinions of Congress have declined by 13
points since April and are now at one of their lowest points in more than
two decades of Pew Research Center surveys.

At the same time, voters are about evenly divided when asked how they would
vote if the election for Congress were being held today: 45% say they would
vote for a Democratic candidate in their district or lean Democratic, while
44% say they would vote for a Republican or lean Republican. At about this
point four years ago, Democrats led in the generic congressional ballot by
52% to 40% and went on to regain control of Congress the following November.

The new survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press,
conducted Aug. 20-27 in English and Spanish among 2,003 adults, finds that
most of the shift in voting intentions since the 2006 election cycle has
occurred among political independents. Independent voters backed Democrats
by a wide margin in the previous midterm (11 points on the eve of the
election), but currently say they support the GOP candidate in their
district by 43% to 38%.

The survey, released today with a separate national poll conducted Aug.
27-30, also finds:

The Democratic Party continues to hold substantial advantages over the GOP
on nearly all issues and leadership traits. Yet since last year the
Democrats' leads on most issues have narrowed, including the economy and
taxes.
Notably, the two parties now run about even on reducing the budget deficit
and managing the federal government. In recent years, the Democrats held
double-digit leads on both issues.
Opinions about health care reform may well be contributing to public
discontent with Congress. By a 46% to 39% margin, more Americans generally
oppose than favor the health care proposals being considered in Congress,
which is little changed from July.
For all the public's reservations about health care reform, however, Barack
Obama continues to enjoy the confidence of a majority of the public with
regard to this issue. More say they have at least a fair amount of
confidence in Obama on this issue (56%) than say that about either
Democratic congressional leaders (45%) or Republican leaders (39%).
The economy remains the most frequently mentioned national problem, but an
increasing proportion of Americans cite health care. Currently, 50% cite the
economy as the most important national problem, down from 80% in February.
Mentions of health care have risen from just 3% then to 20% today.
For a direct link to the full report, go to
http://people-press.org/report/539/congressional-favorability-at-24-year-low
. The survey is for immediate release and is available on our website
http://people-press.org/.